title: An updated perspective on the role of environmental autocorrelation in animal populations.
abstract: Ecological theory predicts that the presence of temporal autocorrelation in environments can considerably affect population extinction risk. However, empirical estimates of autocorrelation values in animal populations have not decoupled intrinsic growth and density feedback processes from environmental autocorrelation. In this study we first discuss how the autocorrelation present in environmental covariates can be reduced through nonlinear interactions or by interactions with multiple limiting resources. We then estimated the degree of environmental autocorrelation present in the Global Population Dynamics Database using a robust, model-based approach. Our empirical results indicate that time series of animal populations are affected by low levels of environmental autocorrelation, a result consistent with predictions from our theoretical models. Claims supporting the importance of autocorrelated environments have been largely based on indirect empirical measures and theoretical models seldom anchored in realistic assumptions. It is likely that a more nuanced understanding of the effects of autocorrelated environments is necessary to reconcile our conclusions with previous theory. We anticipate that our findings and other recent results will lead to improvements in understanding how to incorporate fluctuating environments into population risk assessments.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Florida, National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee troutinthemilk@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Jake M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Ferguson
authors.affiliation: Program of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida.
authors.forename: Felipe
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Carvalho
authors.affiliation: School of Natural Resources and Environment & Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Grupo de Investigación en Ecología Animal, Departamento de Biología, Universidad del Valle.
authors.forename: Oscar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Murillo-García
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, Montana State University.
authors.forename: Mark L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Taper
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Florida.
authors.forename: José M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Ponciano
keywords: Environmental variation; autocorrelation; environmental tracking; extinction risk; time series