title: Multiple "buy buttons" in the brain: Forecasting chocolate sales at point-of-sale based on functional brain activation using fMRI.
abstract: We set out to forecast consumer behaviour in a supermarket based on functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Data was collected while participants viewed six chocolate bar communications and product pictures before and after each communication. Then self-reports liking judgement were collected. fMRI data was extracted from a priori selected brain regions: nucleus accumbens, medial orbitofrontal cortex, amygdala, hippocampus, inferior frontal gyrus, dorsomedial prefrontal cortex assumed to contribute positively and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and insula were hypothesized to contribute negatively to sales. The resulting values were rank ordered. After our fMRI-based forecast an instore test was conducted in a supermarket on n=63.617 shoppers. Changes in sales were best forecasted by fMRI signal during communication viewing, second best by a comparison of brain signal during product viewing before and after communication and least by explicit liking judgements. The results demonstrate the feasibility of applying neuroimaging methods in a relatively small sample to correctly forecast sales changes at point-of-sale.
authors.affiliation: University Clinic Hamburg-Eppendorf, Clinic and Policlinic for Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Martinistraße 52, 20246 Hamburg, Germany. Electronic address: skuehn@uke.de.
authors.forename: Simone
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kühn
authors.affiliation: Justus-Liebig University of Gießen, Department of Business Administration and Economics, Licher Straße 74, 35394 Gießen, Germany.
authors.forename: Enrique
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Strelow
authors.affiliation: University Clinic Hamburg-Eppendorf, Clinic and Policlinic for Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Martinistraße 52, 20246 Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Jürgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gallinat
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001921:Brain / Q000502:physiology*; D001931:Brain Mapping / Q000379:methods*; D000069956:Chocolate; D003258:Consumer Behavior; D003657:Decision Making / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007090:Image Interpretation, Computer-Assisted / Q000379:methods; D007600:Judgment / Q000502:physiology*; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging / Q000379:methods*; D008297:Male; D040541:Marketing / Q000379:methods; D008875:Middle Aged; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: fMRI; forecasting sales; neuroeconomics; neuromarketing; reward processing