title: Probabilities of Dilating Vesicoureteral Reflux in Children with First Time Simple Febrile Urinary Tract Infection, and Normal Renal and Bladder Ultrasound.
abstract: We evaluated risk factors and assessed predicted probabilities for grade III or higher vesicoureteral reflux (dilating reflux) in children with a first simple febrile urinary tract infection and normal renal and bladder ultrasound.
  
  
  
  Data for 167 children 2 to 72 months old with a first febrile urinary tract infection and normal ultrasound were compared between those who had dilating vesicoureteral reflux (12 patients, 7.2%) and those who did not. Exclusion criteria consisted of history of prenatal hydronephrosis or familial reflux and complicated urinary tract infection. The logistic regression model was used to identify independent variables associated with dilating reflux. Predicted probabilities for dilating reflux were assessed.
  
  
  
  Patient age and prevalence of nonEscherichia coli bacteria were greater in children who had dilating reflux compared to those who did not (p = 0.02 and p = 0.004, respectively). Gender distribution was similar between the 2 groups (p = 0.08). In multivariate analysis older age and nonE. coli bacteria independently predicted dilating reflux, with odds ratios of 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07, p = 0.02) and 3.76 (95% CI 1.05-13.39, p = 0.04), respectively. The impact of nonE. coli bacteria on predicted probabilities of dilating reflux increased with patient age.
  
  
  
  We support the concept of selective voiding cystourethrogram in children with a first simple febrile urinary tract infection and normal ultrasound. Voiding cystourethrogram should be considered in children with late onset urinary tract infection due to nonE. coli bacteria since they are at risk for dilating reflux even if the ultrasound is normal.
authors.affiliation: Division of Nephrology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand. Electronic address: pornpimol.r@chula.ac.th.
authors.forename: Pornpimol
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Rianthavorn
authors.affiliation: Division of Nephrology, Department of Pediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand.
authors.forename: Onjira
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Tangngamsakul
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004108:Dilatation, Pathologic; D005260:Female; D005334:Fever / Q000150:complications; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007668:Kidney / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D008297:Male; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D014463:Ultrasonography; D001743:Urinary Bladder / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D014552:Urinary Tract Infections / Q000150:complications*; D014718:Vesico-Ureteral Reflux / Q000150:complications* / Q000473:pathology*
keywords: ultrasonography; urinary tract infections; urination; vesico-ureteral reflux