title: Possible scenarios for occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on numerical simulation.
abstract: We show possible scenarios for the occurrence of M ~ 7 interplate earthquakes prior to and following the M ~ 9 earthquake along the Japan Trench, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. One such M ~ 7 earthquake is so-called the Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake, for which we conducted numerical simulations of earthquake generation cycles by using realistic three-dimensional (3D) geometry of the subducting Pacific Plate. In a number of scenarios, the time interval between the M ~ 9 earthquake and the subsequent Miyagi-ken-Oki earthquake was equal to or shorter than the average recurrence interval during the later stage of the M ~ 9 earthquake cycle. The scenarios successfully reproduced important characteristics such as the recurrence of M ~ 7 earthquakes, coseismic slip distribution, afterslip distribution, the largest foreshock, and the largest aftershock of the 2011 earthquake. Thus, these results suggest that we should prepare for future M ~ 7 earthquakes in the Miyagi-ken-Oki segment even though this segment recently experienced large coseismic slip in 2011.
authors.affiliation: Research and Development Center for Earthquake and Tsunami, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan.
authors.forename: Ryoko
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Nakata
authors.affiliation: Research and Development Center for Earthquake and Tsunami, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan.
authors.forename: Takane
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hori
authors.affiliation: Research and Development Center for Earthquake and Tsunami, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan.
authors.forename: Mamoru
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hyodo
authors.affiliation: Research and Development Center for Earthquake and Tsunami, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan.
authors.forename: Keisuke
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ariyoshi