title: Ecosystem Interactions Underlie the Spread of Avian Influenza A Viruses with Pandemic Potential.
abstract: Despite evidence for avian influenza A virus (AIV) transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems, the roles of bird migration and poultry trade in the spread of viruses remain enigmatic. In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems. In general, viral flow from domestic to wild bird populations was restricted to within a geographic region. In contrast, spillover from wild to domestic populations occurred both within and between regions. Wild birds mediated long-distance dispersal at intercontinental scales whereas viral spread among poultry populations was a major driver of regional spread. Viral spread between poultry flocks frequently originated from persistent lineages circulating in regions of intensive poultry production. Our analysis of long-term surveillance data demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred from integrating ecosystem into phylogeographic reconstructions that may be consequential for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.
authors.affiliation: Center for Infectious Diseases, The University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, Texas, United States of America.|Program in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-National University of Singapore Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.
authors.forename: Justin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bahl
authors.affiliation: Center for Infectious Diseases, The University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, Texas, United States of America.
authors.forename: Truc T
authors.initials: TT
authors.lastname: Pham
authors.affiliation: Division of Comparative Medicine, Department of Biological Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America.
authors.forename: Nichola J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Hill
authors.affiliation: Division of Comparative Medicine, Department of Biological Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America.
authors.forename: Islam T M
authors.initials: IT
authors.lastname: Hussein
authors.affiliation: Division of Comparative Medicine, Department of Biological Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America.
authors.forename: Eric J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
authors.forename: Bernard C
authors.initials: BC
authors.lastname: Easterday
authors.affiliation: J. Craig Venter Institute, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America.
authors.forename: Rebecca A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Halpin
authors.affiliation: J. Craig Venter Institute, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America.
authors.forename: Timothy B
authors.initials: TB
authors.lastname: Stockwell
authors.affiliation: J. Craig Venter Institute, Rockville, Maryland, United States of America.
authors.forename: David E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Wentworth
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee, United States of America.
authors.forename: Ghazi
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Kayali
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee, United States of America.
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Krauss
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee, United States of America.
authors.forename: Stacey
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Schultz-Cherry
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee, United States of America.
authors.forename: Robert G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Webster
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee, United States of America.
authors.forename: Richard J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Webby
authors.affiliation: Center for Infectious Diseases, The University of Texas School of Public Health, Houston, Texas, United States of America.
authors.forename: Michael D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Swartz
authors.affiliation: Program in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-National University of Singapore Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.|Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America.
authors.forename: Gavin J D
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Division of Comparative Medicine, Department of Biological Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America.
authors.forename: Jonathan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Runstadler
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000821:virology; D001717:Birds / Q000821:virology*; D017753:Ecosystem; D009980:Influenza A virus; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology*; D058873:Pandemics / Q000662:veterinary*; D058974:Phylogeography; D011200:Poultry / Q000821:virology*