title: Effects of road network on diversiform forest cover changes in the highest coverage region in China: An analysis of sampling strategies.
abstract: Forest cover changes are of global concern due to their roles in global warming and biodiversity. However, many previous studies have ignored the fact that forest loss and forest gain are different processes that may respond to distinct factors by stressing forest loss more than gain or viewing forest cover change as a whole. It behooves us to carefully examine the patterns and drivers of the change by subdividing it into several categories. Our study includes areas of forest loss (4.8% of the study area), forest gain (1.3% of the study area) and forest loss and gain (2.0% of the study area) from 2000 to 2012 in Fujian Province, China. In the study area, approximately 65% and 90% of these changes occurred within 2000m of the nearest road and under road densities of 0.6km/km(2), respectively. We compared two sampling techniques (systematic sampling and random sampling) and four intensities for each technique to investigate the driving patterns underlying the changes using multinomial logistic regression. The results indicated the lack of pronounced differences in the regressions between the two sampling designs, although the sample size had a great impact on the regression outcome. The application of multi-model inference indicated that the low level road density had a negative significant association with forest loss and forest loss and gain, the expressway density had a positive significant impact on forest loss, and the road network was insignificantly related to forest gain. The model including socioeconomic and biophysical variables illuminated potentially different predictors of the different forest change categories. Moreover, the multiple comparisons tested by Fisher's least significant difference (LSD) were a good compensation for the multinomial logistic model to enrich the interpretation of the regression results.
authors.affiliation: College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
authors.forename: Xisheng
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
authors.forename: Zhilong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China; Department of Ecology and Resource Engineering, Wuyi University, Nanping 354300, China.
authors.forename: Chengzhen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
authors.forename: Limin
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ye
authors.affiliation: College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
authors.forename: Chaofeng
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lan
authors.affiliation: College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.affiliation: College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.
authors.forename: Lu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: College of Transportation and Civil Engineering, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China. Electronic address: fjxsh@126.com.
authors.forename: Rongzu
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Qiu
keywords: Forest cover change; Forest transition; Fujian Province; Multinomial logistic regression; Sampling strategy