title: Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mainland China: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory.
abstract: To explore the spatial-temporal interaction effect within a Bayesian framework and to probe the ecological influential factors for tuberculosis.
  
  
  
  Six different statistical models containing parameters of time, space, spatial-temporal interaction and their combination were constructed based on a Bayesian framework. The optimum model was selected according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) value. Coefficients of climate variables were then estimated using the best fitting model.
  
  
  
  The model containing spatial-temporal interaction parameter was the best fitting one, with the smallest DIC value (-4,508,660). Ecological analysis results showed the relative risks (RRs) of average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, and air pressure were 1.00324 (95% CI, 1.00150-1.00550), 1.01010 (95% CI, 1.01007-1.01013), 0.83518 (95% CI, 0.93732-0.96138), 0.97496 (95% CI, 0.97181-1.01386), and 1.01007 (95% CI, 1.01003-1.01011), respectively.
  
  
  
  The spatial-temporal interaction was statistically meaningful and the prevalence of tuberculosis was influenced by the time and space interaction effect. Average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and air pressure influenced tuberculosis. Average humidity had no influence on tuberculosis.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China. anzhen602@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. anzhen602@163.com.|Beijing Ophthalmology &amp; Visual Science Key Lab., Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Eye Center, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100730, China. anzhen602@163.com.
authors.forename: Kai
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China. yangkun_1123@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. yangkun_1123@163.com.
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China. 13810147054@139.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. 13810147054@139.com.|Department of Statistics and Information, Beijing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, No 16, Hepingli Middle Street, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100013, China. 13810147054@139.com.
authors.forename: Chao
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China. guojin5827501@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. guojin5827501@163.com.
authors.forename: Jin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China. taolixin.2008@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. taolixin.2008@163.com.
authors.forename: Lixin
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China. liuqqa225@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. liuqqa225@163.com.
authors.forename: Qingrong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China. gbmahara@163.com.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. gbmahara@163.com.
authors.forename: Mahara
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gehendra
authors.affiliation: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China. cksgs2016@163.com.
authors.forename: Yingjie
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China. guoxiuh@ccmu.edu.cn.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China. guoxiuh@ccmu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Xiuhua
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Guo
mesh_terms: D000399:Air Pressure; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011891:Rain; D012306:Risk; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D013696:Temperature; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014919:Wind
keywords: Bayesian theory; ecological factors; spatial-temporal interaction; tuberculosis