title: Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2 °C target.
abstract: More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr-1by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21-40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, such as methane inhibitors and finance for new practices. A more comprehensive target for the 2 °C limit should be developed to include soil carbon and agriculture-related mitigation options. Excluding agricultural emissions from mitigation targets and plans will increase the cost of mitigation in other sectors or reduce the feasibility of meeting the 2 °C limit.
authors.affiliation: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark.|University of Vermont (UVM), Burlington, VT, USA.
authors.forename: Eva
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Wollenberg
authors.affiliation: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark.|University of Vermont (UVM), Burlington, VT, USA.
authors.forename: Meryl
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Richards
authors.affiliation: Scottish Food Security Alliance-Crops, Aberdeen, UK.|University of Aberdeen (U Aberdeen), Aberdeen, UK.
authors.forename: Pete
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Petr
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Havlík
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Obersteiner
authors.affiliation: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Francesco N
authors.initials: FN
authors.lastname: Tubiello
authors.affiliation: Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Herold
authors.affiliation: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy.|Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Gerber
authors.affiliation: Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Carter
authors.affiliation: New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre (NZAGRC), Wellington, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Reisinger
authors.affiliation: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Detlef P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: van Vuuren
authors.affiliation: California Environmental Associates (CEA), San Francisco, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Amy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dickie
authors.affiliation: World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Henry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Neufeldt
authors.affiliation: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Philippines.
authors.forename: Björn O
authors.initials: BO
authors.lastname: Sander
authors.affiliation: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), Los Baños, Philippines.
authors.forename: Reiner
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wassmann
authors.affiliation: International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia.
authors.forename: Rolf
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sommer
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA, USA.
authors.forename: James E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Amonette
authors.affiliation: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Alessandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Falcucci
authors.affiliation: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
authors.forename: Mario
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Herrero
authors.affiliation: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Carolyn
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Opio
authors.affiliation: Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Wageningen, The Netherlands.|Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Rosa Maria
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Roman-Cuesta
authors.affiliation: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Elke
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Stehfest
authors.affiliation: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Henk
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Westhoek
authors.affiliation: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batán, Mexico.
authors.forename: Ivan
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Ortiz-Monasterio
authors.affiliation: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batán, Mexico.
authors.forename: Tek
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sapkota
authors.affiliation: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Mariana C
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-4293-3290
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Rufino
authors.affiliation: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark.|International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Philip K
authors.initials: PK
authors.lastname: Thornton
authors.affiliation: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Louis
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Verchot
authors.affiliation: Institute on the Environment (IONE), University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA.
authors.forename: Paul C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: West
authors.affiliation: French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), Clermont-Ferrand, France.
authors.forename: Jean-François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Soussana
authors.affiliation: World Bank (WB), Washington, DC, USA.
authors.forename: Tobias
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Baedeker
authors.affiliation: World Bank (WB), Washington, DC, USA.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sadler
authors.affiliation: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark.|University of Copenhagen (U Copenhagen), Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Sonja
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Vermeulen
authors.affiliation: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark.|International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia.
authors.forename: Bruce M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Campbell
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002244:Carbon / Q000032:analysis; D057231:Climate Change; D005740:Gases / Q000032:analysis*; D017752:Greenhouse Effect / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000517:prevention & control*; D007391:International Cooperation; D008697:Methane / Q000032:analysis; D011640:Public Policy; D012987:Soil / Q000737:chemistry
chemical_list: D005740:Gases; D012987:Soil; D002244:Carbon; D008697:Methane
keywords: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; agriculture; climate change; integrated assessment modeling; mitigation; policy; target