title: SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China's Power System.
abstract: We present an integrated model, SWITCH-China, of the Chinese power sector with which to analyze the economic and technological implications of a medium to long-term decarbonization scenario while accounting for very-short-term renewable variability. On the basis of the model and assumptions used, we find that the announced 2030 carbon peak can be achieved with a carbon price of ∼$40/tCO2. Current trends in renewable energy price reductions alone are insufficient to replace coal; however, an 80% carbon emission reduction by 2050 is achievable in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Target Scenario with an optimal electricity mix in 2050 including nuclear (14%), wind (23%), solar (27%), hydro (6%), gas (1%), coal (3%), and carbon capture and sequestration coal energy (26%). The co-benefits of carbon-price strategy would offset 22% to 42% of the increased electricity costs if the true cost of coal and the social cost of carbon are incorporated. In such a scenario, aggressive attention to research and both technological and financial innovation mechanisms are crucial to enabling the transition at a reasonable cost, along with strong carbon policies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Technology and Society, College of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Stony Brook University , Stony Brook, New York 11794, United States.
authors.forename: Gang
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: He
authors.forename: Anne-Perrine
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Avrin
authors.affiliation: Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) , San Francisco, California 94104, United States.
authors.forename: James H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Nelson
authors.forename: Josiah
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Johnston
authors.affiliation: Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) , San Francisco, California 94104, United States.
authors.forename: Ana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mileva
authors.affiliation: China National Institute of Standardization , Beijing 100191, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Jianwei
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.forename: Daniel M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Kammen
mesh_terms: D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D057231:Climate Change; D003031:Coal; D011210:Power Plants / Q000191:economics; D059205:Renewable Energy / Q000191:economics; D013597:Systems Analysis; D014919:Wind
chemical_list: D003031:Coal; D002245:Carbon Dioxide