title: Safety evaluation model of urban cross-river tunnel based on driving simulation.
abstract: Currently, Shanghai urban cross-river tunnels have three principal characteristics: increased traffic, a high accident rate and rapidly developing construction. Because of their complex geographic and hydrological characteristics, the alignment conditions in urban cross-river tunnels are more complicated than in highway tunnels, so a safety evaluation of urban cross-river tunnels is necessary to suggest follow-up construction and changes in operational management. A driving risk index (DRI) for urban cross-river tunnels was proposed in this study. An index system was also constructed, combining eight factors derived from the output of a driving simulator regarding three aspects of risk due to following, lateral accidents and driver workload. Analytic hierarchy process methods and expert marking and normalization processing were applied to construct a mathematical model for the DRI. The driving simulator was used to simulate 12 Shanghai urban cross-river tunnels and a relationship was obtained between the DRI for the tunnels and the corresponding accident rate (AR) via a regression analysis. The regression analysis results showed that the relationship between the DRI and the AR mapped to an exponential function with a high degree of fit. In the absence of detailed accident data, a safety evaluation model based on factors derived from a driving simulation can effectively assess the driving risk in urban cross-river tunnels constructed or in design.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Transportation and Shipping, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering , Shanghai Jiao Tong University , Shanghai , China.
authors.forename: Yingqi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: a Department of Transportation and Shipping, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering , Shanghai Jiao Tong University , Shanghai , China.
authors.forename: Linjun
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.affiliation: b School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering , Tongji University , Shanghai , China.
authors.forename: Jian John
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Lu
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000328:Adult; D001334:Automobile Driving; D002947:Cities; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004779:Environment Design; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D045483:Rivers; D012449:Safety; D016526:Workload; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: accident rate; analytic hierarchy process; driving risk; driving simulation; safety evaluation; urban cross-river tunnel