title: Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.
abstract: Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany. boit@pik-potsdam.de.|Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195, Berlin, Germany. boit@pik-potsdam.de.
authors.forename: Alice
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Boit
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.|Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Boris
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sakschewski
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Lena
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Boysen
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.|Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, 12489, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Ana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cano-Crespo
authors.affiliation: Alterra Wageningen University and Research Centre, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Clement
authors.affiliation: National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Nashieli
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Garcia-Alaniz
authors.affiliation: Soil Geography and Landscape Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Kasper
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kok
authors.affiliation: National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Melanie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kolb
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.|Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Fanny
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Langerwisch
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.|TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technische Universität München, 85354, Freising, Germany.
authors.forename: Anja
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rammig
authors.affiliation: Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, 14476, Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: René
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sachse
authors.affiliation: Alterra Wageningen University and Research Centre, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Michiel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: van Eupen
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.|Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Werner
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: von Bloh
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.|Department of Geography, Humboldt University of Berlin, Newtonstr. 15, 12489, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Delphine
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Clara Zemp
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.|Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Kirsten
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5283-4937
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Thonicke
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D007843:Latin America
keywords: Latin America; attribution; biome shifts; climate change; land-use change