title: Hydrology and density feedbacks control the ecology of intermediate hosts of schistosomiasis across habitats in seasonal climates.
abstract: We report about field and theoretical studies on the ecology of the aquatic snails (Bulinus spp. and Biomphalaria pfeifferi) that serve as obligate intermediate hosts in the complex life cycle of the parasites causing human schistosomiasis. Snail abundance fosters disease transmission, and thus the dynamics of snail populations are critically important for schistosomiasis modeling and control. Here, we single out hydrological drivers and density dependence (or lack of it) of ecological growth rates of local snail populations by contrasting novel ecological and environmental data with various models of host demography. Specifically, we study various natural and man-made habitats across Burkina Faso's highly seasonal climatic zones. Demographic models are ranked through formal model comparison and structural risk minimization. The latter allows us to evaluate the suitability of population models while clarifying the relevant covariates that explain empirical observations of snail abundance under the actual climatic forcings experienced by the various field sites. Our results link quantitatively hydrological drivers to distinct population dynamics through specific density feedbacks, and show that statistical methods based on model averaging provide reliable snail abundance projections. The consistency of our ranking results suggests the use of ad hoc models of snail demography depending on habitat type (e.g., natural vs. man-made) and hydrological characteristics (e.g., ephemeral vs. permanent). Implications for risk mapping and space-time allocation of control measures in schistosomiasis-endemic contexts are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Perez-Saez
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;
authors.forename: Theophile
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Mande
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Hydrology Group, Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;
authors.forename: Natalie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ceperley
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland;
authors.forename: Enrico
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bertuzzo
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy;
authors.forename: Lorenzo
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Mari
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milan, Italy;
authors.forename: Marino
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-8063-9178
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gatto
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Ecohydrology, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile Edile ed Ambientale, Università di Padova, I-35131 Padua, Italy andrea.rinaldo@epfl.ch.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rinaldo
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001700:Biomphalaria / Q000469:parasitology*; D002033:Bulinus / Q000469:parasitology*; D002050:Burkina Faso; D002980:Climate; D017753:Ecosystem; D062070:Hydrology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D012550:Schistosoma mansoni; D012552:Schistosomiasis / Q000635:transmission*; D012621:Seasons
keywords: environmental monitoring; freshwater snails; infection controls; water-based disease