title: The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch.
abstract: In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theoretical justification is needed for its fundamental constraint on minimum variance of the estimates. We next demonstrate IE's high sensitivity to the type of dummy parameterization used to obtain the estimates. Finally, we discuss challenges in the interpretation of APC models. Our comments are not restricted to the article in question but pertain generally to any research that uses the IE.
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology and Social Sciences Research Methods, Radboud University, P.O. Box 9104, 6500 HE, Nijmegen, The Netherlands. m.tegrotenhuis@maw.ru.nl.
authors.forename: Manfred
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Te Grotenhuis
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology and Social Sciences Research Methods, Radboud University, P.O. Box 9104, 6500 HE, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Pelzer
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA.
authors.forename: Liying
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: Institute of Sociology and Social Psychology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
authors.forename: Alexander W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Schmidt-Catran
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D003710:Demography / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality / Q000208:ethnology / Q000639:trends*; D044469:Racial Groups; D014481:United States