title: Unacquainted callers can predict which citizens will vote over and above citizens' stated self-predictions.
abstract: People are regularly asked to report on their likelihoods of carrying out consequential future behaviors, including complying with medical advice, completing educational assignments, and voting in upcoming elections. Despite these stated self-predictions being notoriously unreliable, they are used to inform many strategic decisions. We report two studies examining stated self-prediction about whether citizens will vote. We find that most self-predicted voters do not actually vote despite saying they will, and that campaign callers can discern which self-predicted voters will not actually vote. In study 1 (n = 4,463), self-predicted voters rated by callers as "100% likely to vote" were 2 times more likely to actually vote than those rated unlikely to vote. Study 2 (n = 3,064) replicated this finding and further demonstrated that callers' prediction accuracy was mediated by citizens' nonverbal signals of uncertainty and deception. Strangers can use nonverbal signals to improve predictions of follow through on self-reported intentions-an insight of potential value for politics, medicine, and education.
authors.affiliation: Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138; Todd_Rogers@hks.harvard.edu.
authors.forename: Todd
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Rogers
authors.affiliation: Haas School of Business and Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720;
authors.forename: Leanne
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ten Brinke
authors.affiliation: Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
authors.forename: Dana R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Carney
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D033182:Intention; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011057:Politics; D035501:Uncertainty
keywords: deception; human judgment; nonverbal behavior; self-prediction; voting