title: Predicting biotic interactions and their variability in a changing environment.
abstract: Global environmental change is altering the patterns of biodiversity worldwide. Observation and theory suggest that species' distributions and abundances depend on a suite of processes, notably abiotic filtering and biotic interactions, both of which are constrained by species' phylogenetic history. Models predicting species distribution have historically mostly considered abiotic filtering and are only starting to integrate biotic interaction. However, using information on present interactions to forecast the future of biodiversity supposes that biotic interactions will not change when species are confronted with new environments. Using bacterial microcosms, we illustrate how biotic interactions can vary along an environmental gradient and how this variability can depend on the phylogenetic distance between interacting species.
authors.affiliation: Graduate School of Human and Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, UMR 5554, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, CC 065, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France kinokomushi@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Kohmei
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-0512-1621
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kadowaki
authors.affiliation: Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, UMR 5554, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, CC 065, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France.
authors.forename: Claire G
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Barbera
authors.affiliation: BioProtection Research Centre, Lincoln University, Lincoln, Canterbury, New Zealand.
authors.forename: William
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-1697-6916
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Godsoe
authors.affiliation: Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, UMR 5554, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, CC 065, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France.
authors.forename: Frédéric
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-6501-6287
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Delsuc
authors.affiliation: Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, UMR 5554, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, CC 065, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 05, France MARBEC (MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation), UMR IRD-CNRS-UM-IFREMER 9190, Université Montpellier, CC 093, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France.
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Mouquet
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D017753:Ecosystem; D005602:France; D005618:Fresh Water / Q000737:chemistry; D064307:Microbiota / Q000502:physiology*; D010802:Phylogeny; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011551:Pseudomonas fluorescens / Q000502:physiology*; D054712:Salinity; D012623:Seawater / Q000737:chemistry
keywords: bacteria; climate change; global change; microcosm; phylogeny; predictive ecology