title: Using historical woodland creation to construct a long-term, large-scale natural experiment: the WrEN project.
abstract: Natural experiments have been proposed as a way of complementing manipulative experiments to improve ecological understanding and guide management. There is a pressing need for evidence from such studies to inform a shift to landscape-scale conservation, including the design of ecological networks. Although this shift has been widely embraced by conservation communities worldwide, the empirical evidence is limited and equivocal, and may be limiting effective conservation. We present principles for well-designed natural experiments to inform landscape-scale conservation and outline how they are being applied in the WrEN project, which is studying the effects of 160 years of woodland creation on biodiversity in UK landscapes. We describe the study areas and outline the systematic process used to select suitable historical woodland creation sites based on key site- and landscape-scale variables - including size, age, and proximity to other woodland. We present the results of an analysis to explore variation in these variables across sites to test their suitability as a basis for a natural experiment. Our results confirm that this landscape satisfies the principles we have identified and provides an ideal study system for a long-term, large-scale natural experiment to explore how woodland biodiversity is affected by different site and landscape attributes. The WrEN sites are now being surveyed for a wide selection of species that are likely to respond differently to site- and landscape-scale attributes and at different spatial and temporal scales. The results from WrEN will help develop detailed recommendations to guide landscape-scale conservation, including the design of ecological networks. We also believe that the approach presented demonstrates the wider utility of well-designed natural experiments to improve our understanding of ecological systems and inform policy and practice.
authors.affiliation: Forest Research Alice Holt Lodge Farnham Surrey GU10 4LH UK; Biological and Environmental Sciences School of Natural Sciences University of Stirling Stirling FK9 4LA UK.
authors.forename: Kevin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Watts
authors.affiliation: Biological and Environmental Sciences School of Natural Sciences University of Stirling Stirling FK9 4LA UK.
authors.forename: Elisa
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Fuentes-Montemayor
authors.affiliation: Natural England Nobel House, 17 Smith Square London SW1P 3JR UK; Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology (DICE) School of Anthropology and Conservation University of Kent Canterbury Kent CT2 7NR UK.
authors.forename: Nicholas A
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Macgregor
authors.affiliation: Biological and Environmental Sciences School of Natural Sciences University of Stirling Stirling FK9 4LA UK.
authors.forename: Victor
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Peredo-Alvarez
authors.affiliation: Forest Research Alice Holt Lodge Farnham Surrey GU10 4LH UK.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ferryman
authors.affiliation: Forest Research Northern Research Station Roslin Midlothian EH25 9SY UK.
authors.forename: Chloe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bellamy
authors.affiliation: Natural England Unex House Peterborough PE1 1NG UK.
authors.forename: Nigel
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Biological and Environmental Sciences School of Natural Sciences University of Stirling Stirling FK9 4LA UK.
authors.forename: Kirsty J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Park
keywords: Ecological networks; WrEN project; landscape‐scale conservation; natural experiment; woodland creation