title: Quantifying the impact of different approaches for handling continuous predictors on the performance of a prognostic model.
abstract: Continuous predictors are routinely encountered when developing a prognostic model. Investigators, who are often non-statisticians, must decide how to handle continuous predictors in their models. Categorising continuous measurements into two or more categories has been widely discredited, yet is still frequently done because of its simplicity, investigator ignorance of the potential impact and of suitable alternatives, or to facilitate model uptake. We examine three broad approaches for handling continuous predictors on the performance of a prognostic model, including various methods of categorising predictors, modelling a linear relationship between the predictor and outcome and modelling a nonlinear relationship using fractional polynomials or restricted cubic splines. We compare the performance (measured by the c-index, calibration and net benefit) of prognostic models built using each approach, evaluating them using separate data from that used to build them. We show that categorising continuous predictors produces models with poor predictive performance and poor clinical usefulness. Categorising continuous predictors is unnecessary, biologically implausible and inefficient and should not be used in prognostic model development. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD, U.K.
authors.forename: Gary S
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-2772-2316
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Collins
authors.affiliation: Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD, U.K.
authors.forename: Emmanuel O
authors.initials: EO
authors.lastname: Ogundimu
authors.affiliation: Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD, U.K.
authors.forename: Jonathan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Cook
authors.affiliation: Departments of Anesthesia and Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Michael DeGroote School of Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, McMaster University and the Perioperative Research Group, Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton, Canada.
authors.forename: Yannick Le
authors.initials: YL
authors.lastname: Manach
authors.affiliation: Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Windmill Road, Oxford, OX3 7LD, U.K.
authors.forename: Douglas G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Altman
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011379:Prognosis
keywords: continuous predictors; dichotomisation; prognostic modelling