title: Risk management model of winter navigation operations.
abstract: The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible.
authors.affiliation: Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering (Marine Technology), Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Heikinkatu 7, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland. Electronic address: osiris.valdez.banda@aalto.fi.
authors.forename: Osiris A
authors.initials: OA
authors.lastname: Valdez Banda
authors.affiliation: Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering (Marine Technology), Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Heikinkatu 7, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland.
authors.forename: Floris
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Goerlandt
authors.affiliation: Admiral Makarov State University of Maritime and Inland Shipping, Makarov Training Centre, P.O. Box 22, 195112 Saint Petersburg, Russia.
authors.forename: Vladimir
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kuzmin
authors.affiliation: Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering (Marine Technology), Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Heikinkatu 7, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland.
authors.forename: Pentti
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kujala
authors.affiliation: Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering (Marine Technology), Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Heikinkatu 7, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland; Finnish Geospatial Research Institute, Geodeetinrinne 2, 02430 Masala, Finland; Gdynia Maritime University, Faculty of Navigation, Department of Transport and Logistics, 81-225 Gdynia, Poland.
authors.forename: Jakub
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Montewka
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D005387:Finland; D006801:Humans; D046448:Ice Cover; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D059392:Petroleum Pollution / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012308:Risk Management; D012621:Seasons; D012767:Ships; D013548:Sweden
keywords: Accidental oil spill; Bayesian networks; Formal Safety Assessment; Maritime risk management; Maritime safety; Winter navigation operations