title: Can outcome of pancreatic pseudocysts be predicted? Proposal for a new scoring system.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The spontaneous resolution rate of pancreatic pseudocysts (PPs) is 86%, and the serious complication rate is 3-9%. The aim of the present study was to develop a scoring system that would predict spontaneous resolution of PPs.
  
  
  METHODS
  Medical records of 70 patients were retrospectively reviewed. Two patients were excluded. Demographic data and laboratory measurements were obtained from patient records.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Mean age of the 68 patients included was 56.6 years. Female:male ratio was 1.34:1. Causes of pancreatitis were stones (48.5%), alcohol consumption (26.5%), and unknown etiology (25%). Mean size of PP was 71 mm. Pseudocysts disappeared in 32 patients (47.1%). With univariate analysis, serum direct bilirubin level (>0.95 mg/dL), cyst carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (>1.5), and cyst diameter (>55 mm) were found to be significantly different between patients with and without spontaneous resolution. In multivariate analysis, these variables were statistically significant. Scores were calculated with points assigned to each variable. Final scores predicted spontaneous resolution in approximately 80% of patients.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The scoring system developed to predict resolution of PPs is simple and useful, but requires validation.
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital, Ankara-Turkey.
authors.forename: Kazım
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Şenol
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital, Ankara-Turkey.
authors.forename: Özgür
authors.initials: Ö
authors.lastname: Akgül
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital, Ankara-Turkey.
authors.forename: Salih Burak
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Gündoğdu
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital, Ankara-Turkey.
authors.forename: İhsan
authors.initials: İ
authors.lastname: Aydoğan
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital, Ankara-Turkey.
authors.forename: Mesut
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tez
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital, Ankara-Turkey.
authors.forename: Faruk
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Coşkun
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Şevket Yılmaz Training and Research Hospital, Bursa-Turkey. dtihan@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Deniz Necdet
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Tihan
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010192:Pancreatic Pseudocyst / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index