title: Colorectal cancer screening: Estimated future colonoscopy need and current volume and capacity.
abstract: In 2014, a national campaign was launched to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the United States to 80% by 2018; it is unknown whether there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to reach this goal. This study estimated the number of colonoscopies needed to screen 80% of the eligible population with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy and determined whether there was sufficient colonoscopy capacity to meet the need.
  
  
  
  The Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model was used to simulate CRC screening test use in the United States (2014-2040); the implementation of a national screening program in 2014 with FIT or colonoscopy with 80% participation was assumed. The 2012 Survey of Endoscopic Capacity (SECAP) estimated the number of colonoscopies that were performed and the number that could be performed.
  
  
  
  If a national screening program started in 2014, by 2024, approximately 47 million FIT procedures and 5.1 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a program using FIT as the primary screening test; approximately 11 to 13 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a colonoscopy-only screening program. According to the SECAP survey, an estimated 15 million colonoscopies were performed in 2012, and an additional 10.5 million colonoscopies could be performed.
  
  
  
  The estimated colonoscopy capacity is sufficient to screen 80% of the eligible US population with FIT, colonoscopy, or a mix of tests. Future analyses should take into account the geographic distribution of colonoscopy capacity. Cancer 2016;122:2479-86. © 2016 American Cancer Society.
authors.affiliation: Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors.forename: Djenaba A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Joseph
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Reinier G S
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Meester
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.
authors.forename: Ann G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Zauber
authors.affiliation: Health and Analytics, Battelle, Seattle, Washington.
authors.forename: Diane L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Manninen
authors.affiliation: Health and Analytics, Battelle, Seattle, Washington.
authors.forename: Linda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Winges
authors.affiliation: Health and Analytics, Battelle, Seattle, Washington.
authors.forename: Fred B
authors.initials: FB
authors.lastname: Dong
authors.affiliation: Office of Public Health Scientific Services, Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Laboratory Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors.forename: Brandy
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Peaker
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Marjolein
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: van Ballegooijen
mesh_terms: D003113:Colonoscopy; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055088:Early Detection of Cancer / Q000379:methods; D019538:Health Care Surveys; D006801:Humans; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: capacity; colonoscopy; colorectal cancer screening