title: Probabilistic population projections with migration uncertainty.
abstract: We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
authors.forename: Jonathan J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Azose
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
authors.forename: Hana
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ševčíková
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 raftery@uw.edu.
authors.forename: Adrian E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Raftery
mesh_terms: D005544:Forecasting; D063426:Human Migration; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D035501:Uncertainty
keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model; United Nations; World Population Prospects; international migration; predictive distribution