title: Risk scores for predicting incidence of type 2 diabetes in the Chinese population: the Kailuan prospective study.
abstract: Few risk scores have been specifically developed to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes in China. In the present study, we aimed to develop such risk scores, based on simple clinical variables. We studied a population-based cohort of 73,987 adults, aged 18 years and over. After 5.35 ± 1.59 years of follow-up, 4,726 participants (9.58%) in the exploration cohort developed type 2 diabetes and 2,327 participants (9.44%) in the validation cohort developed type 2 diabetes. Age, gender, body mass index, family history of diabetes, education, blood pressure, and resting heart rate were selected to form the concise score with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.67. The variables in the concise score combined with fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and triglyceride (TG) or use of lipid-lowering drugs constituted the accurate score with an AUC value of 0.77. The utility of the two scores was confirmed in the validation cohort with AUCs of 0.66 and 0.77, respectively. In summary, the concise score, based on non-laboratory variables, could be used to identify individuals at high risk of developing diabetes within Chinese population; the accurate score, which also uses FPG and TG data, is better at identifying such individuals.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Anxin
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Tangshan Gongren Hospital, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, China.
authors.forename: Guojuan
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Academy of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, China.
authors.forename: Zhaoping
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Su
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Tangshan People's Hospital, Tangshan, China.
authors.forename: Xiaoxue
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Xiangtong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Haibin
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yanxia
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Lixin
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Long
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Kailuan Hospital, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, China.
authors.forename: Shuohua
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Kailuan Hospital, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, China.
authors.forename: Shouling
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.|Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Xiuhua
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Guo
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D044466:Asian People; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors