title: Modeling Landscape-Level Spatial Variation in Sex Ratio Skew in the Mountain Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).
abstract: Through their influence on effective population sizes, sex ratio skew affects population dynamics. We examined spatial variation in female-biased sex ratios in the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreak in western Canada to better understand how environmental context affects sex ratio skew. Our specific objectives were to: 1) characterize spatial variation in mountain pine beetle sex ratio; 2) test previously asserted hypotheses that beetle sex ratio varies with tree diameter and year in outbreak; and 3) develop predictive models of sex ratio skew for larval and adult populations. Using logistic regression, we modeled the probability that an individual beetle (n = 2,369) was female as a function of multiple environmental variables across 34 stands in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada. We identified a consistent female-biased sex ratio with significantly greater skew in adults (2:1, n = 713) than in larvae (1.76:1, n = 1,643). We found that the proportion of larval females increased with decreasing tree size and with outbreak age. However, adults did not respond to tree size and larvae did not respond to outbreak age. Predictive models differed between larvae and adults. All identified models perform well and included predictors related to weather, tree diameter, and year in outbreak. Female-biased sex ratios appear to originate from differential male mortality during development rather than from sex-biased oviposition, suggesting sex ratio skew is not the cause of outbreaks, but rather a consequence.
authors.affiliation: Département de Sciences Biologiques, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada (patrick.ma.james@umontreal.ca) patrick.ma.james@umontreal.ca.
authors.forename: Patrick M A
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: James
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada (jasmine.janes@gmail.com).
authors.forename: Jasmine K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Janes
authors.affiliation: Canadian Forest Service, Great lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, ON, Canada (amanda.roe@canada.ca).
authors.forename: Amanda D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Roe
authors.affiliation: Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB, Canada (barry.cooke@canada.ca).
authors.forename: Barry J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Cooke
mesh_terms: D000416:Alberta; D000818:Animals; D001955:British Columbia; D002980:Climate; D017753:Ecosystem; D005260:Female; D007300:Insect Control / Q000379:methods; D007814:Larva / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012744:Sex Ratio; D014197:Trees / Q000254:growth & development*; D048889:Weevils / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: forest ecology; insect outbreak; logistic regression; predictive modeling; spatial model