title: A Budget Proposal for China's Public Long-Term Care Policy.
abstract: Long-term care (LTC) policy is at an experimental stage in China, characterized by various regional pilot programs. The public cost of LTC is difficult to estimate due to a lack of clarity about policy detail from the central government. This article analyzes the current disabled status for vulnerable older people without sufficient financial resources and family supports. It focuses on estimating a safety net public subsidy policy for LTC services in China, both for today and into the future, using China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) data, 2011 wave, with the methods of multinomial logistic regression and simulation. The key contribution is to estimate the future disability trend and LTC public cost based on changes in education, population ageing, and urbanization. Disability prevalence might be decreasing partly due to higher education, urbanization, and better health care, and the overall public LTC costs might be growing by the results of projection.
authors.affiliation: a Postdoctoral Fellow, Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research, Australian School of Business , University of New South Wales , Sydney , New South Wales , Australia.
authors.forename: Bei
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.affiliation: b Associate Professor, Department of Social Security & Risk Management, School of Public Affairs , Zhejiang University , Hangzhou , China.
authors.forename: Xiaoting
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: c PhD Candidate, School of Public Affairs , Zhejiang University , Hangzhou , China.
authors.forename: Mingxu
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yang
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002681:China; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008134:Long-Term Care / Q000191:economics*; D008297:Male; D011640:Public Policy
keywords: China; disability; long-term care; population ageing; public finance