title: Exploring spatial patterns in the associations between local AIDS incidence and socioeconomic and demographic variables in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
abstract: Access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), universally provided in Brazil since 1996, resulted in a reduction in overall morbidity and mortality due to AIDS or AIDS-related complications, but in some municipalities of Rio de Janeiro, AIDS incidence remains high. Public health surveillance remains an invaluable tool for understanding current AIDS epidemiologic patterns and local socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with increased incidence. Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) explores spatial varying impacts of these factors across the study area focusing attention on local variations in ecological associations. The set of sociodemographic variables under consideration revealed significant associations with local AIDS incidence and these associations varied geographically across the study area. We find the effects of predictors on AIDS incidence are not constant across the state, contrary to assumptions in the global models. We observe and quantify different local factors driving AIDS incidence in different parts of the state.
authors.affiliation: Biomedical Engineering Program, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Av. Horácio Macedo 2030, Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-914, Brazil; CAPES Foundation, Ministry of Education of Brazil, Brasília DF 70040-020, Brazil. Electronic address: andrethiago@peb.ufrj.br.
authors.forename: André T J
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: Alves
authors.affiliation: Biomedical Engineering Program, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Av. Horácio Macedo 2030, Rio de Janeiro RJ 21941-914, Brazil. Electronic address: flavio@peb.ufrj.br.
authors.forename: Flavio F
authors.initials: FF
authors.lastname: Nobre
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA. Electronic address: lwaller@emory.edu.
authors.forename: Lance A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Waller
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D003710:Demography / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D062486:Public Health Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D000068916:Spatial Regression; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
keywords: AIDS; Brazil; GWPR; Sociodemographic factors