title: Stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization of uncertainty and variability in risk assessments: A case study of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soil at a petroleum-contaminated site in China.
abstract: Better decisions are made using risk assessment models when uncertainty and variability are explicitly acknowledged. Uncertainty caused by a lack of uniform and scientifically supported environmental quality guidelines and variability in the degree of exposure of environmental systems to contaminants are here incorporated in a stochastic fuzzy environmental risk characterization (SFERC) approach. The approach is based on quotient probability distribution and environmental risk level fuzzy membership function methods. The SFERC framework was used to characterize the environmental risks posed by 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil at a typical petroleum-contaminated site in China. This relied on integrating data from the literature and field and laboratory experiments. The environmental risk levels posed by the PAHs under four risk scenarios were determined using the SFERC approach, using "residential land" and "industrial land" environmental quality guidelines under "loose" and "strict" strictness parameters. The results showed that environmental risks posed by PAHs in soil are primarily caused by oil exploitation, traffic emissions, and coal combustion. The SFERC approach is an effective tool for characterizing uncertainty and variability in environmental risk assessments and for managing contaminated sites.
authors.affiliation: MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environment Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
authors.forename: Zesen
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; Institute of Hydropower and Environment Research, Beijing 100012, China.
authors.forename: Jingya
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wen
authors.affiliation: MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China. Electronic address: liyuxx8@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: Yu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
keywords: Environmental risk; Fuzzy theory; Probability analysis; Uncertainty; Variability