title: Global distribution and environmental suitability for chikungunya virus, 1952 to 2015.
abstract: Chikungunya fever is an acute febrile illness caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which is transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. Although chikungunya fever is rarely fatal, patients can experience debilitating symptoms that last from months to years. Here we comprehensively assess the global distribution of chikungunya and produce high-resolution maps, using an established modelling framework that combines a comprehensive occurrence database with bespoke environmental correlates, including up-to-date Aedes distribution maps. This enables estimation of the current total population-at-risk of CHIKV transmission and identification of areas where the virus may spread to in the future. We identified 94 countries with good evidence for current CHIKV presence and a set of countries in the New and Old World with potential for future CHIKV establishment, demonstrated by high environmental suitability for transmission and in some cases previous sporadic reports. Aedes aegypti presence was identified as one of the major contributing factors to CHIKV transmission but significant geographical heterogeneity exists. We estimated 1.3 billion people are living in areas at-risk of CHIKV transmission. These maps provide a baseline for identifying areas where prevention and control efforts should be prioritised and can be used to guide estimation of the global burden of CHIKV.
authors.affiliation: Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States.|Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States.|Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States.
authors.forename: E O
authors.initials: EO
authors.lastname: Nsoesie
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: M U
authors.initials: MU
authors.lastname: Kraemer
authors.affiliation: Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.|Department of BioScience, University of Melbourne, Australia.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Golding
authors.affiliation: Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States.|Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: D M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Pigott
authors.affiliation: Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: O J
authors.initials: OJ
authors.lastname: Brady
authors.affiliation: Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: C L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Moyes
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico.|Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States.
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Johansson
authors.affiliation: Malaria Atlas Project, Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: P W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Gething
authors.affiliation: World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Velayudhan
authors.affiliation: Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, Division of Infectious Diseases, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.affiliation: Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States.|Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: S I
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Hay
authors.affiliation: Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States.|Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States.|Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Brownstein
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology*; D000818:Animals; D065632:Chikungunya Fever / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D002646:Chikungunya virus; D005843:Geography; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology*; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance
keywords: arboviral diseases; chikungunya virus; emerging or re-emerging diseases; spatial modelling; surveillance