title: Simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Great Britain.
abstract: It is of considerable interest to forecast the future burden of mesothelioma mortality. Data on deaths are available, whereas no measure of asbestos exposure is available.
  
  
  
  We compare two Poisson models: a response-only model with an age-cohort specification and a multinomial model with epidemiologically motivated frequencies.
  
  
  
  The response-only model has 5% higher peak mortality than the dose-response model. The former performs slightly better in out-of-sample comparison.
  
  
  
  Mortality is predicted to peak at about 2100 deaths around 2017 among males in cohorts until 1966 and below 90 years of age. The response-only model is a simple benchmark that forecasts just as well as more complicated models.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Granada, Granada, Spain.
authors.forename: María Dolores
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Martínez-Miranda
authors.affiliation: Nuffield College, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Bent
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Nielsen
authors.affiliation: Cass Business School, London, UK.
authors.forename: Jens Perch
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Nielsen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001194:Asbestos / Q000009:adverse effects*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008654:Mesothelioma / Q000401:mortality*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009784:Occupational Diseases / Q000401:mortality; D016273:Occupational Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D001194:Asbestos