title: Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.
abstract: By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.
authors.affiliation: Herpetological Section, Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Flora
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ihlow
authors.affiliation: UMR7179 CNRS/MNHN, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Julien
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Courant
authors.affiliation: UMR CNRS 5023 LEHNA, University Lyon 1, Lyon, France.|UMR CNRS 6554 LETG-LEESA, University of Angers, Angers, France.
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Secondi
authors.affiliation: UMR7179 CNRS/MNHN, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Anthony
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Herrel
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.
authors.forename: Rui
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rebelo
authors.affiliation: Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany & Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
authors.forename: G John
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Measey
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie Biologiche Chimiche e Farmaceutiche, Università di Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Lillo
authors.affiliation: Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany & Zoology, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
authors.forename: F André
authors.initials: FA
authors.lastname: De Villiers
authors.affiliation: Herpetological Section, Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Solveig
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Vogt
authors.affiliation: Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium and University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
authors.forename: Charlotte
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: De Busschere
authors.affiliation: Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium and University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
authors.forename: Thierry
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Backeljau
authors.affiliation: Herpetological Section, Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Dennis
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rödder
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D058865:Introduced Species; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014982:Xenopus laevis