title: Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe.
abstract: Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980-2005) and future (2041-2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO2physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO2partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector.
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, 5000-801, Portugal. hfraga@utad.pt.
authors.forename: Helder
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7946-8786
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Fraga
authors.affiliation: French National Institute for Agricultural Research, US1116 AgroClim, INRA, Avignon, F-84914, France.
authors.forename: Iñaki
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: García de Cortázar Atauri
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, 5000-801, Portugal.
authors.forename: Aureliano C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Malheiro
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, 5000-801, Portugal.
authors.forename: João A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Santos
mesh_terms: D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D005060:Europe; D005544:Forecasting; D007558:Italy; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009584:Nitrogen; D014867:Water
chemical_list: D014867:Water; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D009584:Nitrogen
keywords: 
  STICS
  ; EURO-CORDEX; Europe; climate change; crop modelling; grapevine; representative concentration pathways; viticulture