title: Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.
abstract: The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Niño3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.
authors.affiliation: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80301, USA.
authors.forename: Gerald A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Meehl
authors.affiliation: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80301, USA.
authors.forename: Aixue
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-1337-287X
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80301, USA.
authors.forename: Haiyan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Teng