title: Clinical Model for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinomas in Patients with Post-Sustained Virologic Responses of Chronic Hepatitis C: A Case Control Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  No clinical model exists to predict the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in sustained virologic response-achieving (HCC after SVR) patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC).
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a case-control study using a clinical database to research the risk factors for HCC after SVR. A predictive model based on risk factors was established, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the multivariate model, an initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis and post-SVR albumin reductions of 1 g/L were associated with 21.7-fold (95% CI, 4.2 to 112.3; p<0.001) and 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.7; p=0.004) increases in the risk of HCC after SVR, respectively. A predictive model based on an initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis (yes, +1; no, 0) and post-SVR albumin ≤36.0 g/L (yes, +1; not, 0) predicted the occurrence of HCC after SVR with a cutoff value of >0, an AUC of 0.880, a sensitivity of 0.833, a specificity of 0.896, and a negative predictive value of 0.956.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  An initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis combined with a post-SVR albumin value of ≤36.0 g/L predicts the occurrence of HCC after SVR in patients with CHC.
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
authors.forename: Qing-Lei
authors.initials: QL
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.affiliation: Treatment and Research Center for Liver Fibrosis, Beijing 302 Hospital, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Bing
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
authors.forename: Xue-Xiu
authors.initials: XX
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Center of Therapeutic Research for Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Beijing 302 Hospital, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
authors.forename: Yan-Ling
authors.initials: YL
authors.lastname: Fu
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lv
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
authors.forename: Yan-Min
authors.initials: YM
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.
authors.forename: Zu-Jiang
authors.initials: ZJ
authors.lastname: Yu
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000821:virology*; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D005260:Female; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications* / Q000188:drug therapy; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications / Q000821:virology; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000821:virology*; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors; D012709:Serum Albumin / Q000032:analysis; D000072230:Sustained Virologic Response
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D012709:Serum Albumin
keywords: Case-control studies; Chronic hepatitis C; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Risk factors; Sustained virologic response