title: The Impact of Inventory Management on Stock-Outs of Essential Drugs in Sub-Saharan Africa: Secondary Analysis of a Field Experiment in Zambia.
abstract: To characterize the impact of widespread inventory management policies on stock-outs of essential drugs in Zambia's health clinics and develop related recommendations.
  
  
  
  Daily clinic storeroom stock levels of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) products in 2009-2010 were captured in 145 facilities through photography and manual transcription of paper forms, then used to determine historical stock-out levels and estimate demand patterns. Delivery lead-times and estimates of monthly facility accessibility were obtained through worker surveys. A simulation model was constructed and validated for predictive accuracy against historical stock-outs, then used to evaluate various changes potentially affecting product availability.
  
  
  
  While almost no stock-outs of AL products were observed during Q4 2009 consistent with primary analysis, up to 30% of surveyed facilities stocked out of some AL product during Q1 2010 despite ample inventory being simultaneously available at the national warehouse. Simulation experiments closely reproduced these results and linked them to the use of average past monthly issues and failure to capture lead-time variability in current inventory control policies. Several inventory policy enhancements currently recommended by USAID | DELIVER were found to have limited impact on product availability.
  
  
  
  Inventory control policies widely recommended and used for distributing medicines in sub-Saharan Africa directly account for a substantial fraction of stock-outs observed in common situations involving demand seasonality and facility access interruptions. Developing central capabilities in peripheral demand forecasting and inventory control is critical. More rigorous independent peer-reviewed research on pharmaceutical supply chain management in low-income countries is needed.
authors.affiliation: Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
authors.forename: Ngai-Hang Z
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Leung
authors.affiliation: Analytics Operations Engineering, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
authors.forename: Ana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: William Davidson Institute, Ross School of Business and School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.
authors.forename: Prashant
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Yadav
authors.affiliation: London Business School, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4SA, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Jérémie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gallien
mesh_terms: D000962:Antimalarials / Q000600:supply & distribution / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000077549:Artemether; D037621:Artemisinins / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000639:trends*; D018954:Drugs, Essential / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D004983:Ethanolamines / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005449:Fluorenes / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006268:Health Facilities / Q000639:trends*; D006285:Health Planning; D006801:Humans; D000078102:Lumefantrine; D008288:Malaria / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000469:parasitology; D008421:Materials Management, Hospital / Q000592:standards*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010593:Pharmaceutical Services / Q000600:supply & distribution / Q000639:trends; D010963:Plasmodium falciparum / Q000187:drug effects; D000078329:Workforce
chemical_list: D000962:Antimalarials; D037621:Artemisinins; D018954:Drugs, Essential; D004983:Ethanolamines; D005449:Fluorenes; D000077549:Artemether; D000078102:Lumefantrine