A semi-mechanism approach based on MRI and proteomics for prediction of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease.
Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a precursor phase of Alzheimer's disease (AD). As current treatments may be effective only at the early stages of AD, it is important to track MCI patients who will convert to AD. The aim of this study is to develop a high performance semi-mechanism based approach to predict the conversion from MCI to AD and improve our understanding of MCI-to-AD conversion mechanism. First, analysis of variance (ANOVA) test and lasso regression are employed to identify the markers related to the conversion. Then the Bayesian network based on selected markers is established to predict MCI-to-AD conversion. The structure of Bayesian network suggests that the conversion may start with fibrin clot formation, verbal memory impairment, eating pattern changing and hyperinsulinemia. The Bayesian network achieves a high 10-fold cross-validated prediction performance with 96% accuracy, 95% sensitivity, 65% specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 on data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database. The semi-mechanism based approach provides not only high prediction performance but also clues of mechanism for MCI-to-AD conversion.
Center of Drug Metabolism and Pharmacokinetics, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Haochen
H
Liu
Center of Drug Metabolism and Pharmacokinetics, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Xiaoting
X
Zhou
Center of Drug Metabolism and Pharmacokinetics, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Hao
H
Jiang
Center of Drug Metabolism and Pharmacokinetics, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Hua
H
He
Center of Drug Metabolism and Pharmacokinetics, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, 210009, China.
Xiaoquan
X
Liu
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000503:physiopathology; D060825:Cognitive Dysfunction / Q000097:blood / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000503:physiopathology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D040901:Proteomics