Critical behavior in a stochastic model of vector mediated epidemics.
The extreme vulnerability of humans to new and old pathogens is constantly highlighted by unbound outbreaks of epidemics. This vulnerability is both direct, producing illness in humans (dengue, malaria), and also indirect, affecting its supplies (bird and swine flu, Pierce disease, and olive quick decline syndrome). In most cases, the pathogens responsible for an illness spread through vectors. In general, disease evolution may be an uncontrollable propagation or a transient outbreak with limited diffusion. This depends on the physiological parameters of hosts and vectors (susceptibility to the illness, virulence, chronicity of the disease, lifetime of the vectors, etc.). In this perspective and with these motivations, we analyzed a stochastic lattice model able to capture the critical behavior of such epidemics over a limited time horizon and with a finite amount of resources. The model exhibits a critical line of transition that separates spreading and non-spreading phases. The critical line is studied with new analytical methods and direct simulations. Critical exponents are found to be the same as those of dynamical percolation.
Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Innovazione, Università del Salento, Lecce, Italy.
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Alfinito
Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica "Ennio de Giorgi", Università del Salento, Lecce, Italy.|INFN (Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare) Sezione di Lecce - Via Arnesano 73100 Lecce, Italy.
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Beccaria
Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica "Ennio de Giorgi", Università del Salento, Lecce, Italy.|INFN (Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare) Sezione di Lecce - Via Arnesano 73100 Lecce, Italy.
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Macorini
D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004199:Disease Vectors; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013269:Stochastic Processes