Determinants of road traffic safety: New evidence from Australia using state-space analysis.
This paper examines the determinants of road traffic crash fatalities in Queensland for the period 1958-2007 using a state-space time-series model. In particular, we investigate the effects of policies that aimed to reduce drink-driving on traffic fatalities, as well as indicators of the economic environment that may affect exposure to traffic, and hence affect the number of accidents and fatalities. The results show that the introduction of a random breath testing program in 1988 was associated with a 11.3% reduction in traffic fatalities; its expansion in 1998 was associated with a 26.2% reduction in traffic fatalities; and the effect of the "Safe4life" program, which was introduced in 2004, was a 14.3% reduction in traffic fatalities. Reductions in economic activity are also associated with reductions in road fatalities: we estimate that a one percent increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a 0.2% reduction in traffic fatalities.
Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Australia. Electronic address: son.nghiem@qut.edu.au.
Son
S
Nghiem
VU University Amsterdam, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research, Bezuidenhoutseweg 62, 2594 AW Den Haag, The Netherlands.
Jacques J F
JJ
Commandeur
Centre for the Business and Economics of Health and Faculty of Health and Behavioural Sciences, The University of Queensland, Australia.
Luke B
LB
Connelly
D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001315:Australia; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000066448:Driving Under the Influence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D012449:Safety / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D014478:Unemployment
Alcohol; Australia; Road traffic crashes; Safety; State-space time-series analysis; Young drivers