Redefining the Australian Anthrax Belt: Modeling the Ecological Niche and Predicting the Geographic Distribution of Bacillus anthracis.
The ecology and distribution of B. anthracis in Australia is not well understood, despite the continued occurrence of anthrax outbreaks in the eastern states of the country. Efforts to estimate the spatial extent of the risk of disease have been limited to a qualitative definition of an anthrax belt extending from southeast Queensland through the centre of New South Wales and into northern Victoria. This definition of the anthrax belt does not consider the role of environmental conditions in the distribution of B. anthracis. Here, we used the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction model system (GARP), historical anthrax outbreaks and environmental data to model the ecological niche of B. anthracis and predict its potential geographic distribution in Australia. Our models reveal the niche of B. anthracis in Australia is characterized by a narrow range of ecological conditions concentrated in two disjunct corridors. The most dominant corridor, used to redefine a new anthrax belt, parallels the Eastern Highlands and runs from north Victoria to central east Queensland through the centre of New South Wales. This study has redefined the anthrax belt in eastern Australia and provides insights about the ecological factors that limit the distribution of B. anthracis at the continental scale for Australia. The geographic distributions identified can help inform anthrax surveillance strategies by public and veterinary health agencies.
Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.|Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
Alassane S
AS
Barro
AgriBio, Centre for Agribiosciences, Biosciences Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Bundoora Victoria, Australia.
Mark
M
Fegan
New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Biosecurity Intelligence and Traceability, Orange New South Wales, Australia.
Barbara
B
Moloney
Chief Veterinary Officer's Unit, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Attwood Victoria, Australia.
Kelly
K
Porter
AgriBio, Centre for Agribiosciences, Biosciences Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Bundoora Victoria, Australia.
Janine
J
Muller
AgriBio, Centre for Agribiosciences, Biosciences Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Bundoora Victoria, Australia.
Simone
S
Warner
Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.|Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
Jason K
JK
Blackburn
D000818:Animals; D000881:Anthrax / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000266:history / Q000662:veterinary*; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D001408:Bacillus anthracis / Q000502:physiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000266:history / Q000662:veterinary*; D017753:Ecosystem; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D008322:Mammals