Estimated increase in cross-border purchases by Washington residents following liquor privatization and implications for alcohol consumption trends.
To estimate changes in liquor sales occurring in Washington, USA and bordering states following the privatization of government controlled liquor stores.



Trend analyses of data from January 2009 to October 2014 of a natural experiment beginning 1 June 2012, when liquor prices increased and the number of stores selling liquor increased in the state of Washington. Difference-in-differences (DID) models and interrupted time-series methods were used.



Washington and bordering counties in Oregon and Idaho.



Monthly liquor sales in 9-l cases.



DID model estimates of adjusted change in liquor sales as a result of privatization produced a cross-model average increase of 10.1% in Oregon and 8.2% in Idaho (both P < 0.001). Similar results were found using interrupted time-series. This represents a total loss to Washington of 89 865 l of liquor, 0.226% of total Washington sales, for June 2012 to May 2013. Adding these sales to Washington totals for fiscal years 2013 and 2014, we find that per-capita spirits sales were 5.80 l in both 2012 and 2013, declining slightly to 5.76 l in 2014.



The privatization of liquor sales in the state of Washington, USA in 2012 and the price increases associated with this resulted in a significant increase in sales in bordering counties in the states of Oregon and Idaho. However, the amount of alcohol sales and revenue lost by Washington was relatively small. Per-capita liquor sales in Washington appear to have remained flat after privatization.
Alcohol Research Group, Public Health Institute, Emeryville, CA, USA.
Yu
Y
Ye
Alcohol Research Group, Public Health Institute, Emeryville, CA, USA. wkerr@arg.org.
William C
WC
Kerr
D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000191:economics / Q000523:psychology* / Q000639:trends; D000434:Alcoholic Beverages / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003132:Commerce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003258:Consumer Behavior / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007061:Idaho; D009922:Oregon; D011332:Privatization; D012621:Seasons; D013660:Taxes; D014195:Travel; D014861:Washington
Border; monopoly; policy; privatization; spirits; tax; time-series