On the prior distribution of extinction time.
Bayesian inference about the extinction of a species based on a record of its sightings requires the specification of a prior distribution for extinction time. Here, I critically review some specifications in the context of a specific model of the sighting record. The practical implication of the choice of prior distribution is illustrated through an application to the sighting record of the Caribbean monk seal.
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA asolow@whoi.edu.
Andrew R
0000-0003-1978-1372
AR
Solow
D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D046048:Seals, Earless
Bayesian inference; extinction time; non-informative prior distribution