Experiments with Seasonal Forecasts of ocean conditions for the Northern region of the California Current upwelling system.
Resource managers at the state, federal, and tribal levels make decisions on a weekly to quarterly basis, and fishers operate on a similar timeframe. To determine the potential of a support tool for these efforts, a seasonal forecast system is experimented with here. JISAO's Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE) features dynamical downscaling of regional ocean conditions in Washington and Oregon waters using a combination of a high-resolution regional model with biogeochemistry and forecasts from NOAA's Climate Forecast System (CFS). Model performance and predictability were examined for sea surface temperature (SST), bottom temperature, bottom oxygen, pH, and aragonite saturation state through model hindcasts, reforecast, and forecast comparisons with observations. Results indicate J-SCOPE forecasts have measurable skill on seasonal timescales. Experiments suggest that seasonal forecasting of ocean conditions important for fisheries is possible with the right combination of components. Those components include regional predictability on seasonal timescales of the physical environment from a large-scale model, a high-resolution regional model with biogeochemistry that simulates seasonal conditions in hindcasts, a relationship with local stakeholders, and a real-time observational network. Multiple efforts and approaches in different regions would advance knowledge to provide additional tools to fishers and other stakeholders.
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Box 355672, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle WA 98195 USA.
Samantha A
SA
Siedlecki
Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle WA 98112 USA.
Isaac C
IC
Kaplan
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Box 355672, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle WA 98195 USA.|NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA 98115 USA.
Albert J
AJ
Hermann
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Box 355672, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle WA 98195 USA.
Thanh Tam
TT
Nguyen
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Box 355672, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle WA 98195 USA.|NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA 98115 USA.
Nicholas A
NA
Bond
Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, 1013 NE 40th St, Box 355640, Seattle, WA 98105 USA.
Jan A
JA
Newton
Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, under contract to Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle WA 98112 USA.
Gregory D
GD
Williams
Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, Oregon 97365 USA.
William T
WT
Peterson
NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA 98115 USA.
Simone R
SR
Alin
NOAA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA 98115 USA.
Richard A
RA
Feely