Development of a Novel Scoring System for Predicting the Risk of Colorectal Neoplasia: A Retrospective Study.
OBJECTIVE
The purpose of this study was to develop a novel scoring system to screen subjects who have a high risk for colorectal neoplasia.


METHODS
We retrospectively analyzed 1061 subjects undergoing total colonoscopy (TCS) for the first time at Gihoku Kosei Hospital. The characteristics and habits of the subjects were analyzed using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. The risk score was established according to each odds ratio of the individual risk factors, and the correlations between the sum of the risk scores and the prevalence of colorectal neoplasia for each individual were evaluated.


RESULTS
Age 45-59 (risk score: 2 points) and ≥60 (3 points), male gender (1 point), and habitual alcohol consumption ≥21g daily (1 point) were extracted as the significant risk factors for colorectal neoplasia. When the risk groups were determined by summing up these risk scores, the prevalence rates of colorectal neoplasia were 8.8% for the low risk group (0-2 points), 30.5% for the low-moderate risk group (3 points), 39.1% for the high-moderate risk group (4 points), and 57.6% for the high risk group (5 points). In comparison with the low risk group, the odds ratio of the low-moderate risk, the high-moderate risk, and the high risk groups were 4.6, 6.7, and 14.1 folds, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
Our scoring system, which linearly correlates with the prevalence rate of colorectal neoplasia, may be an effective tool for screening the subjects who have a high risk for colorectal neoplasia. These subjects, therefore, should be recommended to undergo TCS.
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gihoku Kosei Hospital, Yamagata, 501-2105, Japan.
Tomohiko
T
Ohno
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gihoku Kosei Hospital, Yamagata, 501-2105, Japan.
Seiji
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7035-2229
S
Adachi
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gihoku Kosei Hospital, Yamagata, 501-2105, Japan.
Mitsuru
M
Okuno
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gihoku Kosei Hospital, Yamagata, 501-2105, Japan.
Yohei
Y
Horibe
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gihoku Kosei Hospital, Yamagata, 501-2105, Japan.
Naoe
N
Goto
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gihoku Kosei Hospital, Yamagata, 501-2105, Japan.
Midori
M
Iwama
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gihoku Kosei Hospital, Yamagata, 501-2105, Japan.
Osamu
O
Yamauchi
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gihoku Kosei Hospital, Yamagata, 501-2105, Japan.
Takao
T
Kojima
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gihoku Kosei Hospital, Yamagata, 501-2105, Japan.
Koshiro
K
Saito
Division for Regional Cancer Control, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, 501-1194, Japan.|Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, 501-1194, Japan.
Takashi
T
Ibuka
Division for Regional Cancer Control, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, 501-1194, Japan.
Ichiro
I
Yasuda
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, 501-1194, Japan.
Hiroshi
H
Araki
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, 501-1194, Japan.
Hisataka
H
Moriwaki
Department of Gastroenterology/Internal Medicine, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, Gifu, 501-1194, Japan.
Masahito
M
Shimizu
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000009:adverse effects; D003106:Colon / Q000473:pathology*; D003113:Colonoscopy; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055088:Early Detection of Cancer / Q000379:methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016017:Odds Ratio; D015995:Prevalence; D012007:Rectum / Q000473:pathology*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D055815:Young Adult