Revising probability estimates: Why increasing likelihood means increasing impact.
Forecasted probabilities rarely stay the same for long. Instead, they are subject to constant revision-moving upward or downward, uncertain events become more or less likely. Yet little is known about how people interpret probability estimates beyond static snapshots, like a 30% chance of rain. Here, we consider the cognitive, affective, and behavioral consequences of revisions to probability forecasts. Stemming from a lay belief that revisions signal the emergence of a trend, we find in 10 studies (comprising uncertain events such as weather, climate change, sex, sports, and wine) that upward changes to event-probability (e.g., increasing from 20% to 30%) cause events to feel less remote than downward changes (e.g., decreasing from 40% to 30%), and subsequently change people's behavior regarding those events despite the revised event-probabilities being the same. Our research sheds light on how revising the probabilities for future events changes how people manage those uncertain events. (PsycINFO Database Record
Department of Management, University of Toronto Scarborough.
Sam J
SJ
Maglio
Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Evan
E
Polman
D000328:Adult; D006801:Humans; D011336:Probability; D013850:Thinking / Q000502:physiology*; D035501:Uncertainty; D055815:Young Adult