When every drop counts: Analysis of Droughts in Brazil for the 1901-2013 period.
To provide information useful in policy formulation and management of drought impacts in Brazil, in this study, a sequence of drought events based on monthly rainfall of 1901-2013 on ~25 km x 25 km grid are derived at 4 timescales that include short-timescales (3-month and 6-month) and medium to long-timescales (12-month and 24-month). Subsequently, probability of drought occurrences, intensity, duration and areal-extent are calculated. The probabilities of occurrence of severe and extreme droughts at short-timescales are 1 in 12 and 1 in 66 years, respectively, all over the country. At medium to long-timescales, the probability of severe droughts is about 1 in 20 years in northern Brazil, and 1 in 10 years in the south. The probabilities of extreme droughts are 1 in 9 and 1 in 12 years over northern Brazil and in the south, respectively. In general, no evidence of significant (α =0.05) trend is detected in drought frequency, intensity, and duration over the last 11 decades (since 1901) at all the 4 timescales. The drought areal-extent show increasing trends of 3.4%/decade over Brazil for both 3-month and 6-month timescales. However, the trend increases for the 12-month and 24-month timescales are relatively smaller, i.e., 2.4%/decade and 0.5%/decade, respectively.
Western Australian Centre for Geodesy, The Institute for Geoscience Research, Curtin University, Perth 6102, Australia; Department of Cartographic Engineering, Geodetic Science and Technology of Geoinformation Post Graduation Program, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE, Brazil. Electronic address: J.awange@curtin.edu.au.
Joseph L
JL
Awange
Hydro-Meteorology Independent Researcher, Canberra, Australia; Department of Cartographic Engineering, Geodetic Science and Technology of Geoinformation Post Graduation Program, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE, Brazil.
Freddie
F
Mpelasoka
Department of Cartographic Engineering, Geodetic Science and Technology of Geoinformation Post Graduation Program, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE, Brazil.
Rodrigo M
RM
Goncalves
D001938:Brazil; D057231:Climate Change; D055864:Droughts; D011336:Probability; D012621:Seasons; D013997:Time Factors
Brazil; Drought; climate variability; living with drought; risk management policies; vulnerability