Influenza evolution and H3N2 vaccine effectiveness, with application to the 2014/2015 season.
Influenza A is a serious disease that causes significant morbidity and mortality, and vaccines against the seasonal influenza disease are of variable effectiveness. In this article, we discuss the use of the pepitope method to predict the dominant influenza strain and the expected vaccine effectiveness in the coming flu season. We illustrate how the effectiveness of the 2014/2015 A/Texas/50/2012 [clade 3C.1] vaccine against the A/California/02/2014 [clade 3C.3a] strain that emerged in the population can be estimated via pepitope In addition, we show by a multidimensional scaling analysis of data collected through 2014, the emergence of a new A/New Mexico/11/2014-like cluster [clade 3C.2a] that is immunologically distinct from the A/California/02/2014-like strains.
Department of Bioengineering, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005, USA.
Xi
X
Li
Department of Bioengineering, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005, USA Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005, USA Center for Theoretical Biological Physics, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005, USA mwdeem@rice.edu.
Michael W
MW
Deem
D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D019267:Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus / Q000737:chemistry / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D053122:Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype / Q000276:immunology / Q000378:metabolism / Q000502:physiology*; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000276:immunology*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000821:virology; D008958:Models, Molecular; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010802:Phylogeny; D011487:Protein Conformation; D012621:Seasons
D019267:Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus; D007252:Influenza Vaccines
dominant strains; influenza evolution; pepitope; phylogeny; vaccine effectiveness