The Research of Improved Grey GM (1, 1) Model to Predict the Postprandial Glucose in Type 2 Diabetes.
Diabetes may result in some complications and increase the risk of many serious health problems. The purpose of clinical treatment is to carefully manage the blood glucose concentration. If the blood glucose concentration is predicted, treatments can be taken in advance to reduce the harm to patients. For this purpose, an improved grey GM (1, 1) model is applied to predict blood glucose with a small amount of data, and especially in terms of improved smoothness it can get higher prediction accuracy. The original data of blood glucose of type 2 diabetes is acquired by CGMS. Then the prediction model is established. Finally, 50 cases of blood glucose from the Henan Province People's Hospital are predicted in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 minutes, respectively, in advance to verify the prediction model. The prediction result of blood glucose is evaluated by the EGA, MSE, and MAE. Particularly, the prediction results of postprandial blood glucose are presented and analyzed. The result shows that the improved grey GM (1, 1) model has excellent performance in postprandial blood glucose prediction.
School of Information Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China.
Yannian
Y
Wang
School of Information Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China.
Fenfen
F
Wei
College of Public Health, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China.
Changqing
C
Sun
Department of Endocrinology, Henan People's Hospital, Zhengzhou 450003, China.
Quanzhong
Q
Li
D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism*; D015190:Blood Glucose Self-Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology*; D003936:Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D016018:Least-Squares Analysis; D008657:Metabolic Clearance Rate; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D019518:Postprandial Period; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
D001786:Blood Glucose