New online ecology of adversarial aggregates: ISIS and beyond.
Support for an extremist entity such as Islamic State (ISIS) somehow manages to survive globally online despite considerable external pressure and may ultimately inspire acts by individuals having no history of extremism, membership in a terrorist faction, or direct links to leadership. Examining longitudinal records of online activity, we uncovered an ecology evolving on a daily time scale that drives online support, and we provide a mathematical theory that describes it. The ecology features self-organized aggregates (ad hoc groups formed via linkage to a Facebook page or analog) that proliferate preceding the onset of recent real-world campaigns and adopt novel adaptive mechanisms to enhance their survival. One of the predictions is that development of large, potentially potent pro-ISIS aggregates can be thwarted by targeting smaller ones.
Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA.
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Johnson
Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA.
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Zheng
Department of International Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA.
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Vorobyeva
Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA.
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Gabriel
Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA.
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Qi
Department of International Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA.
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Velasquez
Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA.
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Manrique
Department of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
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Johnson
Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA.
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Restrepo
Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA.
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Song
Department of Computer Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA. Center for Computational Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33126, USA. wuchtys@cs.miami.edu.
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Wuchty
D006126:Group Processes; D006801:Humans; D007514:Islam / Q000523:psychology*; D007857:Leadership; D008399:Mass Behavior; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011406:Propaganda; D061108:Social Media / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D023481:Terrorism / Q000523:psychology*; D014754:Violence