Northeastern North America as a potential refugium for boreal forests in a warming climate.
High precipitation in boreal northeastern North America could help forests withstand the expected temperature-driven increase in evaporative demand, but definitive evidence is lacking. Using a network of tree-ring collections from 16,450 stands across 583,000 km(2) of boreal forests in Québec, Canada, we observe a latitudinal shift in the correlation of black spruce growth with temperature and reduced precipitation, from negative south of 49°N to largely positive to the north of that latitude. Our results suggest that the positive effect of a warmer climate on growth rates and growing season length north of 49°N outweighs the potential negative effect of lower water availability. Unlike the central and western portions of the continent's boreal forest, northeastern North America may act as a climatic refugium in a warmer climate.
Centre d'Étude de la Forêt, Université du Québec à Montréal, Case Postale 8888, Succursale Centre-Ville, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3P8, Canada. Department of Biology, Indiana University, 1001 East 3rd Street, Jordan Hall 142, Bloomington, IN 47405-7005, United States.
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D'Orangeville
Direction de la Recherche Forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec, 2700 Einstein, Québec City, Quebec G1P 3W8, Canada.
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Duchesne
Direction de la Recherche Forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec, 2700 Einstein, Québec City, Quebec G1P 3W8, Canada. Consortium sur la Climatologie Régionale et l'Adaptation aux Changements Climatiques (Ouranos), 550 Sherbrooke W, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1B9, Canada.
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Houle
Centre d'Étude de la Forêt, Université du Québec à Montréal, Case Postale 8888, Succursale Centre-Ville, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3P8, Canada.
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Kneeshaw
Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, 21,111 Lakeshore Road, Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue, Quebec H9X 3V9, Canada.
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Côté
Harvard Forest, 324 North Main Street, Petersham, MA 10366, USA.
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Pederson
D057232:Global Warming; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006813:Humidity; D028222:Picea / Q000254:growth & development; D011792:Quebec; D000068236:Refugium; D012621:Seasons; D066188:Taiga; D014867:Water
D014867:Water