The Reliability and Predictive Validity of the Stalking Risk Profile.
This study assessed the reliability and validity of the Stalking Risk Profile (SRP), a structured measure for assessing stalking risks. The SRP was administered at the point of assessment or retrospectively from file review for 241 adult stalkers (91% male) referred to a community-based forensic mental health service. Interrater reliability was high for stalker type, and moderate-to-substantial for risk judgments and domain scores. Evidence for predictive validity and discrimination between stalking recidivists and nonrecidivists for risk judgments depended on follow-up duration. Discrimination was moderate (area under the curve = 0.66-0.68) and positive and negative predictive values good over the full follow-up period ( Mdn = 170.43 weeks). At 6 months, discrimination was better than chance only for judgments related to stalking of new victims (area under the curve = 0.75); however, high-risk stalkers still reoffended against their original victim(s) 2 to 4 times as often as low-risk stalkers. Implications for the clinical utility and refinement of the SRP are discussed.
1 Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.|2 Victorian Institute for Forensic Mental Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Troy E
TE
McEwan
1 Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.|2 Victorian Institute for Forensic Mental Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Daniel E
DE
Shea
1 Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.|2 Victorian Institute for Forensic Mental Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Michael
M
Daffern
1 Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.|2 Victorian Institute for Forensic Mental Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Rachel D
RD
MacKenzie
1 Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.|2 Victorian Institute for Forensic Mental Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
James R P
JRP
Ogloff
1 Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.|2 Victorian Institute for Forensic Mental Health, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Paul E
PE
Mullen
D000328:Adult; D003156:Community Mental Health Services; D005260:Female; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000295:instrumentation*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012372:ROC Curve; D000075665:Recidivism / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D055807:Stalking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology*; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014739:Victoria / Q000453:epidemiology; D014754:Violence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
SRP; Stalking Risk Profile; risk assessment; stalking; structured professional judgment