The Impact of Farmers' Strategic Behavior on the Spread of Animal Infectious Diseases.
One of the main strategies to control the spread of infectious animal diseases is the implementation of movement restrictions. This paper shows a loss in efficiency of the movement restriction policy (MRP) when behavioral responses of farmers are taken into account. Incorporating the strategic behavior of farmers in an epidemiologic model reveals that the MRP can trigger premature animal sales by farms at high risk of becoming infected that significantly reduce the efficacy of the policy. The results are validated in a parameterized network via Monte Carlo simulations and measures to mitigate the loss of efficiency of the MRP are discussed. Financial aid to farmers can be justified by public health concerns, not only for equity. This paper contributes to developing an interdisciplinary analytical framework regarding the expansion of infectious diseases combining economic and epidemiologic dimensions.
CIRAD, UMR CMAEE, F-97170 Petit-Bourg, Guadeloupe, France.|INRA, UMR1309 CMAEE, F-34398, Montpellier, France.
Damian
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7251-9408
D
Tago
Toulouse School of Economics - Recherche, INRA, Université Toulouse, 31000, Toulouse, France.|Department of Health Policy and Management and Center for Risk Analysis, Harvard University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, 02115, United States of America.
James K
JK
Hammitt
Toulouse School of Economics - Recherche, INRA, Université Toulouse, 31000, Toulouse, France.
Alban
A
Thomas
IHAP, Université de Toulouse, INRA, ENVT, Toulouse, France.
Didier
D
Raboisson
D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000191:economics / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000379:methods; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D000067565:Farmers / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D006801:Humans; D009010:Monte Carlo Method