Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia.
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes respiratory illness in young children and is most commonly associated with bronchiolitis. RSV typically occurs as annual or biennial winter epidemics in temperate regions, with less pronounced seasonality in the tropics. We sought to characterise and compare the seasonality of RSV and bronchiolitis in temperate and tropical Western Australia. We examined over 13 years of RSV laboratory identifications and bronchiolitis hospitalisations in children, using an extensive linked dataset from Western Australia. We applied mathematical time series analyses to identify the dominant seasonal cycle, and changes in epidemic size and timing over this period. Both the RSV and bronchiolitis data showed clear winter epidemic peaks in July or August in the southern Western Australia regions, but less identifiable seasonality in the northern regions. Use of complex demodulation proved very effective at comparing disease epidemics. The timing of RSV and bronchiolitis epidemics coincided well, but the size of the epidemics differed, with more consistent peak sizes for bronchiolitis than for RSV. Our results show that bronchiolitis hospitalisations are a reasonable proxy for the timing of RSV detections, but may not fully capture the magnitude of RSV epidemics.
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Australia. Electronic address: alexandra.hogan@anu.edu.au.
Alexandra B
AB
Hogan
CSIRO Data61; Mathematical Sciences Institute, The Australian National University; Mathematics and Statistics, La Trobe University, Australia.
Robert S
RS
Anderssen
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Australia.
Stephanie
S
Davis
Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Australia.
Hannah C
HC
Moore
Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Australia.
Faye J
FJ
Lim
Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, Australia.
Parveen
P
Fathima
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Australia.
Kathryn
K
Glass
D001988:Bronchiolitis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018357:Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012136:Respiratory Syncytial Viruses; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012621:Seasons; D014904:Western Australia / Q000453:epidemiology
Bronchiolitis; Complex demodulation; Fourier analysis; Respiratory syncytial virus; Seasonality