The effect of long-term migration dynamics on population structure in England & Wales and Scotland.
We investigated the effect of migration on population dynamics in England & Wales and Scotland from the mid-nineteenth century to the present by comparing actual population size and structure with estimates based on zero net migration from a range of starting dates. In this period, Scotland had the largest net outflow among countries in Europe for which detailed information is available, whereas overall net migration in England & Wales was close to zero. In the absence of migration, population would have been over twice as large in Scotland in 2013 as the actual value, but similar to its actual value in England & Wales. Levels and pace of population ageing have been broadly similar in both countries, so the major impact of differential migration has been on population size rather than structure. We discuss these findings in relation to the debate on migration policy between political parties supporting and opposing independence in the 2014 Scottish referendum.
a London School of Economics & Political Science.
Michael
M
Murphy
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D004641:Emigration and Immigration / Q000266:history / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011158:Population Growth; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
England & Wales; Scotland; demographic modelling; historical trends; migration