Aging Will Amplify the Heat-related Mortality Risk under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, China.
An aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heat-related mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.
Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Tiantian
T
Li
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA.
Radley M
RM
Horton
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA.
Daniel A
DA
Bader
The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Maigeng
M
Zhou
Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing, China.
Xudong
X
Liang
Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Jie
J
Ban
Institute for Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Qinghua
Q
Sun
Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, USA.
Patrick L
PL
Kinney
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D000068476:Beijing; D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change / Q000401:mortality*; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005544:Forecasting; D018882:Heat Stress Disorders / Q000401:mortality*; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D011634:Public Health; D015980:Public Health Practice