[Analysis of substitutional effect of outpatient expenditure on inpatient expenditure in hypertensive patients with rural new cooperative medical scheme].
OBJECTIVE
To study direct medical cost of hypertensive patients without complicated diseases, to analyze substitution impacts of outpatient expenditure on inpatient expenditure, and then to make recommendations to health policy makers and hypertensive patients for managing hypertension.


METHODS
The claims data of hypertensive patients insured by the rural new cooperative medical scheme in a city in northern China from 2008 to 2013 were analyzed, descriptive statistics employed to analyze direct medical cost of hypertensive patients and hypertensive patients without complicated diseases which was one of the three groups divided by medical treatment conditions (hypertension without complicated diseases, hypertension with complicated diseases, and other diseases), and the differences between groups compared by t test. The fixed effect two-part model was employed to analyze the substitution effect of outpatient services on inpatient services, and specific effects of outpatient times and reimbursement expenses on the inpatient expenditure were calculated by Logistic regression analysis.


RESULTS
For the hypertensive patients, the average cost of outpatients was 283.49 Yuan in 2008 and rose to 370.93 Yuan in 2013. After being divided into three groups, for hypertensive patients without complicated diseases, the average cost of outpatient was 449.79 Yuan in 2008 and rose to 582.53 Yuan in 2013. In the total cost of the outpatient, 45.73% was for the hypertensive patients without complicated diseases; in the total cost of the inpatient, only 9.29% was for the hypertensive patients without complicated diseases. By calculating the marginal effect of parameter estimation through the fixed effect two-part model, the inpatient cost could be significantly reduced by increasing the visit times of outpatient utilization or the cost of outpatient reimbursement. For example, in 2013, a 1% rise of outpatient visit times increased outpatient expenditures by 6.48 million Yuan, which could reduce inpatient expenditures by 39.86 million Yuan. The substituted ratio of outpatient cost on inpatient cost had been around 5 in 2010 and later.


CONCLUSIONS
The health policy-makers and hypertensive patients should pay more attentions to the substitution of outpatient cost for inpatient cost, especially for the hypertensive patients without complicated diseases whose direct medical cost was mainly due to outpatient rather than inpatient costs.
Department of Health Policy and Management, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing 100191, China; China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
H Y
HY
Zhang
Department of Health Policy and Management, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing 100191, China.
W Y
WY
Jian
China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China.
H
H
Fang
D000553:Ambulatory Care / Q000191:economics; D002681:China; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D005102:Health Expenditures; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000191:economics*; D007297:Inpatients; D010045:Outpatients; D012424:Rural Population