title: Quantitative Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Carbon Transferred by International Trade.
abstract: Carbon transfer via international trade affects the spatial pattern of global carbon emissions by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services. It has potential impacts on attribution of the responsibility of various countries for climate change and formulation of carbon-reduction policies. However, the effect of carbon transfer on climate change has not been quantified. Here, we present a quantitative estimate of climatic impacts of carbon transfer based on a simple CO2 Impulse Response Function and three Earth System Models. The results suggest that carbon transfer leads to a migration of CO2 by 0.1-3.9 ppm or 3-9% of the rise in the global atmospheric concentrations from developed countries to developing countries during 1990-2005 and potentially reduces the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol by up to 5.3%. However, the induced atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate changes (e.g., in temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-ice) are very small and lie within observed interannual variability. Given continuous growth of transferred carbon emissions and their proportion in global total carbon emissions, the climatic effect of traded carbon is likely to become more significant in the future, highlighting the need to consider carbon transfer in future climate negotiations.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
authors.forename: Ting
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.affiliation: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.|Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.|CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
authors.forename: Wenjie
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Dong
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.|College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.|Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, PL122, 96100 Rovaniemi, Finland.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Moore
authors.affiliation: Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
authors.forename: Qing
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: Marine Weather Forecast Division, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China.|The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China.
authors.forename: Yi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Zhiyong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.|State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Wenping
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Yuan
authors.affiliation: Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
authors.forename: Jieming
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chou
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Xuefeng
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Cui
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Xiaodong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Zhigang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Shili
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Di
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China.
authors.forename: Pengfei
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.|Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
authors.forename: Song
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.|Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
authors.forename: Zhiping
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Wen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, Chinese University of Hong Kong, HKSAR, China.
authors.forename: Hui
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Institute of Space and Earth Information Science, Chinese University of Hong Kong, HKSAR, China.|School of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China.
authors.forename: Min
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100086, China.
authors.forename: Guolin
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100086, China.
authors.forename: Yundi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
authors.forename: Xian
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.affiliation: Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
authors.forename: Juan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.affiliation: Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
authors.forename: Wen
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.affiliation: Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem, Future Earth Research Institute, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai 519087, China.
authors.forename: Zhiguo
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Zhuhai Meteorological Bureau, Zhuhai 519000, China.
authors.forename: Juan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dong
authors.affiliation: Zhuhai Meteorological Bureau, Zhuhai 519000, China.
authors.forename: Yexin
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 460, S-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden.
authors.forename: Deliang
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Chen