title: Facilitating political decisions using species distribution models to assess restoration measures in heavily modified estuaries.
abstract: The European Water Framework Directive requires a good ecological potential for heavily modified water bodies. This standard has not been reached for most large estuaries by 2015. Management plans for estuaries fall short in linking implementations between restoration measures and underlying spatial analyses. The distribution of emergent macrophytes - as an indicator of habitat quality - is here used to assess the ecological potential. Emergent macrophytes are capable of settling on gentle tidal flats where hydrodynamic stress is comparatively low. Analyzing their habitats based on spatial data, we set up species distribution models with 'elevation relative to mean high water', 'mean bank slope', and 'length of bottom friction' from shallow water up to the vegetation belt as key predictors representing hydrodynamic stress. Effects of restoration scenarios on habitats were assessed applying these models. Our findings endorse species distribution models as crucial spatial planning tools for implementing restoration measures in modified estuaries.
authors.affiliation: Department Ecological Interactions, Federal Institute of Hydrology, Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz, Germany; Geoinformation in Environmental Planning Lab, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 145, 10623 Berlin, Germany. Electronic address: heuner@bafg.de.
authors.forename: Maike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Heuner
authors.affiliation: Department Ecological Interactions, Federal Institute of Hydrology, Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz, Germany.
authors.forename: Arnd
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Weber
authors.affiliation: Department Vegetation Studies & Landscape Management, Federal Institute of Hydrology, Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz, Germany.
authors.forename: Uwe
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Schröder
authors.affiliation: Geoinformation in Environmental Planning Lab, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 145, 10623 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Birgit
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Kleinschmit
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geoecology, Environmental Systems Analysis, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Langer Kamp 19c, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany; Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Altensteinstraße 6, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Boris
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Schröder
mesh_terms: D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods; D052918:Environmental Restoration and Remediation / Q000379:methods*; D063366:Estuaries; D005060:Europe; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D006109:Poaceae
keywords: European Water Framework Directive; Northern Sea estuaries; Phragmites australis; Restoration management; Scirpus maritimus; Scirpus tabernaemontani