title: Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.
abstract: We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.
authors.affiliation: The Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP), College of Social Sciences & International Studies, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QJ, UK. Electronic address: i.bateman@exeter.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Bateman
authors.affiliation: The Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP), College of Social Sciences & International Studies, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QJ, UK; Department of Geography and Environment and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, UK.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Agarwala
authors.affiliation: The Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP), College of Social Sciences & International Studies, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QJ, UK.
authors.forename: Amy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Binner
authors.affiliation: School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.
authors.forename: Emma
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Coombes
authors.affiliation: The Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP), College of Social Sciences & International Studies, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QJ, UK.
authors.forename: Brett
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Day
authors.affiliation: The Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP), College of Social Sciences & International Studies, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QJ, UK; Department of Economics, University of Siena, Piazza S. Francesco, 7, 53100, Siena, Italy.
authors.forename: Silvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ferrini
authors.affiliation: The Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP), College of Social Sciences & International Studies, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QJ, UK; Department of Economics and Management, University of Trento, Via Vigilio Inama, 5, 38122, Trento, Italy.
authors.forename: Carlo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Fezzi
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hutchins
authors.affiliation: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lovett
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR33 0HT, UK.
authors.forename: Paulette
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Posen
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000191:economics*; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D004787:Environmental Pollution; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011998:Recreation; D045483:Rivers / Q000737:chemistry; D006113:United Kingdom; D060753:Water Quality
keywords: Agriculture; Climate change; Economics; Integrated models; Land use; Recreation; Spatial analysis; Water quality