title: Quantifying the Risk of Human Toxoplasma gondii Infection Due to Consumption of Domestically Produced Lamb in the United States.
abstract: Toxoplasma gondii is a prevalent protozoan parasite worldwide. Human toxoplasmosis is responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in the United States, and meat products have been identified as an important source of T. gondii infections in humans. The goal of this study was to develop a farm-to-table quantitative microbial risk assessment model to predict the public health burden in the United States associated with consumption of U.S. domestically produced lamb. T. gondii prevalence in market lambs was pooled from the 2011 National Animal Health Monitoring System survey, and the concentration of the infectious life stage (bradyzoites) was calculated in the developed model. A log-linear regression and an exponential doseresponse model were used to model the reduction of T. gondii during home cooking and to predict the probability of infection, respectively. The mean probability of infection per serving of lamb was estimated to be 1.5 cases per 100,000 servings, corresponding to ∼6,300 new infections per year in the U.S.
  
  
  
  Based on the sensitivity analysis, we identified cooking as the most effective method to influence human health risk. This study provided a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for T. gondii infection through consumption of lamb and quantified the infection risk and public health burden associated with lamb consumption.
authors.affiliation: Department of Nutrition and Food Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA.
authors.forename: Miao
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Department of Nutrition and Food Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA.
authors.forename: Abhinav
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mishra
authors.affiliation: Department of Nutrition and Food Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA; Center for Food Safety and Security Systems, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA.
authors.forename: Robert L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Buchanan
authors.affiliation: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Beltsville Agriculture Research Center, Animal Parasitic Diseases Laboratory, Beltsville, Maryland 20705, USA.
authors.forename: Jitender P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Dubey
authors.affiliation: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Beltsville Agriculture Research Center, Animal Parasitic Diseases Laboratory, Beltsville, Maryland 20705, USA.
authors.forename: Dolores E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Hill
authors.affiliation: National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC 20001, USA.
authors.forename: H Ray
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Gamble
authors.affiliation: Department of Nutrition and Food Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA; Center for Food Safety and Security Systems, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA. akp@umd.ed.
authors.forename: Abani K
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Pradhan
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D006801:Humans; D008460:Meat / Q000469:parasitology*; D008461:Meat Products / Q000469:parasitology; D015995:Prevalence; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D012756:Sheep; D014122:Toxoplasma; D014123:Toxoplasmosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014124:Toxoplasmosis, Animal / Q000469:parasitology; D014481:United States