title: CO2 Accounting and Risk Analysis for CO2 Sequestration at Enhanced Oil Recovery Sites.
abstract: Using CO2 in enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is a promising technology for emissions management because CO2-EOR can dramatically reduce sequestration costs in the absence of emissions policies that include incentives for carbon capture and storage. This study develops a multiscale statistical framework to perform CO2 accounting and risk analysis in an EOR environment at the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil/gas-water flow and transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major risk metrics: CO2/water injection/production rates, cumulative net CO2 storage, cumulative oil/gas productions, and CO2 breakthrough time. The median and confidence intervals are estimated for quantifying uncertainty ranges of the risk metrics. A response-surface-based economic model has been derived to calculate the CO2-EOR profitability for the FWU site with a current oil price, which suggests that approximately 31% of the 1000 realizations can be profitable. If government carbon-tax credits are available, or the oil price goes up or CO2 capture and operating expenses reduce, more realizations would be profitable. The results from this study provide valuable insights for understanding CO2 storage potential and the corresponding environmental and economic risks of commercial-scale CO2-sequestration in depleted reservoirs.
authors.affiliation: Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory , Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, United States.
authors.forename: Zhenxue
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Dai
authors.affiliation: Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory , Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, United States.
authors.forename: Hari
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Viswanathan
authors.affiliation: Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory , Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, United States.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Middleton
authors.affiliation: Energy and Geoscience Institute, The University of Utah , Salt Lake City, Utah 84108, United States.
authors.forename: Feng
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Pan
authors.affiliation: Petroleum Recovery Research Center, New Mexico Tech , Socorro, New Mexico 87801, United States.
authors.forename: William
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Ampomah
authors.affiliation: Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin , Austin, Texas 78713, United States.
authors.forename: Changbing
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Energy and Geoscience Institute, The University of Utah , Salt Lake City, Utah 84108, United States.
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Jia
authors.affiliation: Energy and Geoscience Institute, The University of Utah , Salt Lake City, Utah 84108, United States.
authors.forename: Ting
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Schlumberger Carbon Services , Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States.
authors.forename: Si-Yong
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Energy and Geoscience Institute, The University of Utah , Salt Lake City, Utah 84108, United States.
authors.forename: Brian
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: McPherson
authors.affiliation: Petroleum Recovery Research Center, New Mexico Tech , Socorro, New Mexico 87801, United States.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Balch
authors.affiliation: Petroleum Recovery Research Center, New Mexico Tech , Socorro, New Mexico 87801, United States.
authors.forename: Reid
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Grigg
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Richland, Washington 99354, United States.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: White
mesh_terms: D002244:Carbon; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D057965:Carbon Sequestration; D004777:Environment; D009821:Oils
chemical_list: D009821:Oils; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D002244:Carbon