title: Surface water areas significantly impacted 2014 dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China.
abstract: Dengue transmission in urban areas is strongly influenced by a range of biological and environmental factors, yet the key drivers still need further exploration. To better understand mechanisms of environment-mosquito-urban dengue transmission, we propose an empirical model parameterized and cross-validated from a unique dataset including viral gene sequences, vector dynamics and human dengue cases in Guangzhou, China, together with a 36-year urban environmental change maps investigated by spatiotemporal satellite image fusion. The dengue epidemics in Guangzhou are highly episodic and were not associated with annual rainfall over time. Our results indicate that urban environmental changes, especially variations in surface area covered by water in urban areas, can substantially alter the virus population and dengue transmission. The recent severe dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou may be due to the surge in an artificial lake construction, which could increase infection force between vector (mainly Aedes albopictus) and host when urban water area significantly increased. Impacts of urban environmental change on dengue dynamics may not have been thoroughly investigated in the past studies and more work needs to be done to better understand the consequences of urbanization processes in our changing world.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Huaiyu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Shanqian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Sen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Discipline of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
authors.forename: Peng
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Bi
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China. Electronic address: yangzc@gzcdc.org.cn.
authors.forename: Zhicong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Xiujun
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Lifan
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: UMMISCO, UMI 209 IRD - UPMC, 93142 Bondy, France; Eco-Evolutionary Mathematic, IBENS UMR 8197, ENS, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France.
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cazelles
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Qinlong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Jing
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Wenping
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Yuan
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yao
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Pei
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Zhe
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Tianxiang
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yue
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820, USA.
authors.forename: Mei-Po
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Kwan
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Qiyong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia.
authors.forename: Shilu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tong
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: John.Brownstein@childrens.harvard.edu.
authors.forename: John S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Brownstein
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA. Electronic address: bingxu@tsinghua.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Bing
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Xu
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005618:Fresh Water / Q000032:analysis; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology*; D014507:Urbanization
keywords: Climate; Guangzhou; Remote sensing; Urban dengue outbreak; Water surface area