title: An examination of change in dynamic risk of offending over time among serious juvenile offenders.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We examine whether and how much risk/need indicators change over time in a sample of serious adolescent offenders and whether changes in risk are related to self-reported and official record reports of offending in the year following assessment.
  
  
  METHODS
  Growth curve and multilevel mixed-effects models are used to examine change through age 18 in a sample of 1,354 serious adolescent offenders participating in the Pathways to Desistance Study.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Three primary findings emerge: 1) Compared to the baseline assessment, overall risk/need scores decrease over time. 2) Risk/need does not change in a uniform sequence across domains and time; the form and rate of change differ by domain. 3) Risk/need indicators were related to later offending, with more recent indicators being more powerful for predicting rearrest.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The findings provide empirical support for recent efforts to incorporate routine risk/need assessment into juvenile justice practice. Repeated assessments are likely to identify fluctuations in areas of risk/need that can be used to inform case management and intervention efforts, even for serious offenders.
authors.affiliation: University of Pittsburgh.
authors.forename: Edward P
authors.initials: EP
authors.lastname: Mulvey
authors.affiliation: University of Pittsburgh.
authors.forename: Carol A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Schubert
authors.affiliation: University of Pittsburgh.
authors.forename: Lindsey
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Pitzer
authors.affiliation: University of Pittsburgh.
authors.forename: Samuel
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hawes
authors.affiliation: University of Texas - Dallas.
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Piquero
authors.affiliation: University of Texas - Dallas.
authors.forename: Stephanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cardwell