title: Rationing of hip and knee replacement: effect on the severity of patient-reported symptoms and the demand for surgery in Otago.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  A key Government health target has been to increase access to elective surgery. Despite this, there is a growing concern about unmet demand and increasing numbers of patients are being declined elective surgery. This study aims to determine whether there has been an increase in the severity of osteoarthritis of the hip and knee in patients undergoing publicly-funded elective total joint replacement (TJR) and any increase in demand for TJR in Otago.
  
  
  METHODS
  Demographic details and preoperative patient reported outcome scores (Oxford hip or knee score (OHS,OKS) and a reduced Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) score (RWS) were collected prospectively in an historical cohort of patients undergoing total hip and knee replacement (THR, TKR) between 2006-2010. These were compared with all patients undergoing THR and TKR in the 12-month period commencing 1 November 2013, and all patients waitlisted during this period but returned to GP due to capacity issues. An estimate of current demand was made by adding all waitlisted public patients from the 12-month period to surgical numbers from private and those funded by ACC.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the 2006-2010 group of 613 patients, the mean OHS was 13.6 (SD 6.7) and OKS 15.4 (SD 6.5) and RWS 30.5 (SD 8.0). Three hundred and sixty-seven patients who underwent surgery in 2013/4 had significantly poorer scores (OHS 9.9 (SD 4.9), OKS 10.6 (SD 3.8), RWS 34.8 (SD 6.7)). The scores of 194 patients returned to GP in 2013/4 were the same as the historical surgical group (OHS13.0 (SD 6.2, OKS 15.2 (SD 5.9), RWS 30.8 (SD 8.4)). Six hundred and eight patients were wait-listed for public surgery and 356 joints were performed in private or under ACC in the 12-month period. The current intervention rate in Otago is 371/100,000 per year, while the demand has risen from 417/100000 in 2010-12 to 494/100,000 per year. In 2014, the shortfall was 241 joints per year.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Patients undergoing primary elective total hip and knee replacement in Otago in 2014 are more severely disabled than between 2006-2010. Patients currently being returned to GP would have qualified for publicly funded surgery during that period. The demand for elective TJR in Otago has increased by 19% since 2012.
authors.affiliation: Surgical Sciences, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, Dunedin. david.gwynne-jones@stonebow.otago.ac.nz.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gwynne-Jones
authors.forename: Ella
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Iosua
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019644:Arthroplasty, Replacement, Hip / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D019645:Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D017558:Elective Surgical Procedures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D011446:Prospective Studies