title: Selecting candidate predictor variables for the modelling of post-discharge mortality from sepsis: a protocol development project.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Post-discharge mortality is a frequent but poorly recognized contributor to child mortality in resource limited countries. The identification of children at high risk for post-discharge mortality is a critically important first step in addressing this problem.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The objective of this project was to determine the variables most likely to be associated with post-discharge mortality which are to be included in a prediction modelling study.
  
  
  METHODS
  A two-round modified Delphi process was completed for the review of a priori selected variables and selection of new variables. Variables were evaluated on relevance according to (1) prediction (2) availability (3) cost and (4) time required for measurement. Participants included experts in a variety of relevant fields.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the first round of the modified Delphi process, 23 experts evaluated 17 variables. Forty further variables were suggested and were reviewed during the second round by 12 experts. During the second round 16 additional variables were evaluated. Thirty unique variables were compiled for use in the prediction modelling study.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A systematic approach was utilized to generate an optimal list of candidate predictor variables for the incorporation into a study on prediction of pediatric post-discharge mortality in a resource poor setting.
authors.affiliation: School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
authors.forename: Matthew O
authors.initials: MO
authors.lastname: Wiens
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
authors.forename: Niranjan
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kissoon
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda.
authors.forename: Elias
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kumbakumba
authors.affiliation: School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
authors.forename: Joel
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Singer
authors.affiliation: Pediatric Global Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA.
authors.forename: Peter P
authors.initials: PP
authors.lastname: Moschovis
authors.affiliation: Department of Anesthesiology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
authors.forename: J Mark
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Ansermino
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ndamira
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Mbarara University of Science and Technology, Mbarara, Uganda.
authors.forename: Julius
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kiwanuka
authors.affiliation: School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
authors.forename: Charles P
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Larson
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D001837:Body Weights and Measures; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003697:Delphi Technique; D003906:Developing Countries; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006403:Hematologic Tests; D006801:Humans; D007114:Immunization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010351:Patient Discharge / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D018805:Sepsis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality*; D012737:Sex Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D055986:Vital Signs
keywords: Candidate predictor variables; pediatrics; post-discharge mortality; prediction; sepsis