title: Clinical Prognostic Score for Predicting Disease Remission with Differentiated Thyroid Cancers.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Differentiated thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy with a generally good prognosis. Knowing long-term outcomes of each patient helps management planning. The study was conducted to develop and validate a clinical prognostic score for predicting disease remission in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer based on patient, tumor and treatment factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective cohort study of 1,217 differentiated thyroid cancer patients from two tertiary-care hospitals in the Northeast of Thailand was performed. Associations between potential clinical prognostic factors and remission were tested by Cox proportional-hazards analysis in 852 patients (development cohort). The prediction score was created by summation of score points weighted from regression coefficients of independent prognostic factors. Risks of disease remission were estimated and the derived score was then validated in the remaining 365 patients (validation cohort).
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the median follow-up time of 58 months, 648 (76.1%) patients in the development cohort had disease remission. Five independent prognostic factors were identified with corresponding score points: duration from thyroid surgery to 131I treatment (0.721), distant metastasis at initial diagnosis (0.801), postoperative serum thyroglobulin level (0.535), anti-thyroglobulin antibodies positivity (0.546), and adequacy of serum TSH suppression (0.293). The total risk score for each patient was calculated and three categories of remission probability were proposed: ≤1.628 points (low risk, 83% remission), 1.629-1.816 points (intermediate risk, 87% remission), and ≥1.817 points (high risk, 93% remission). The concordance (C-index) was 0.761 (95% CI 0.754-0.767).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The clinical prognostic scoring model developed to quantify the probability of disease remission can serve as a useful tool in personalized decision making regarding treatment in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, Thailand E-mail : charoonsak.som@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Charoonsak
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Somboonporn
authors.forename: Ampica
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mangklabruks
authors.forename: Ammarin
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Thakkinstian
authors.forename: Patravoot
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Vatanasapt
authors.forename: Suwannee
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Nakaphun
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000556:secondary* / Q000628:therapy; D018263:Adenocarcinoma, Follicular / Q000556:secondary* / Q000628:therapy; D000328:Adult; D002277:Carcinoma / Q000556:secondary* / Q000628:therapy; D002291:Carcinoma, Papillary; D003131:Combined Modality Therapy; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007457:Iodine Radioisotopes; D008207:Lymphatic Metastasis; D008297:Male; D009361:Neoplasm Invasiveness; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D011379:Prognosis; D012074:Remission Induction; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D015996:Survival Rate; D000077273:Thyroid Cancer, Papillary; D013964:Thyroid Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000556:secondary / Q000628:therapy; D013965:Thyroidectomy
chemical_list: D007457:Iodine Radioisotopes