title: Predictive Factors in the Incidence of Cirrhosis in Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infections.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is among the leading causes of liver cirrhosis worldwide. Predictors of cirrhosis in Iranian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients are yet to be clearly identified.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  Evaluating the predictive factors of liver cirrhosis in CHB.
  
  
  METHODS
  A longitudinal study was conducted during 1995 - 2014 on all CHB patients who were referred to Tehran hepatitis center, Tehran, Iran. The patients were assessed during periodic visits through medical history and laboratory data. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine predictors of cirrhosis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Two hundred thirty-seven CHB patients were followed for an average duration of 10.6 years, and 41 of these patients developed cirrhosis. The incidence rate of cirrhosis was 2.82/100 person-years. Univariate analyses determined 9 out of 17 factors as significant predictors of outcome in CHB patients. Age of ≥ 45 years, positive hepatitis D virus (HDV), negative HBeAg, platelet count of < 150 (× 10(9))/L, and HBV DNA level of ≥ 2,000 IU/mL were identified as significant independent predictors of liver cirrhosis in multiple logistic analyses.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Five predictive factors that are simple and easy to measure may be used as parameters for the prediction of liver cirrhosis in CHB patients.
authors.affiliation: Baqiyatallah Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IR Iran.
authors.forename: Seyed Moayed
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Alavian
authors.affiliation: Gastroenterohepatology Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, IR Iran.
authors.forename: Mohammad Hadi
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Imanieh
authors.affiliation: Baqiyatallah Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IR Iran; Gastroenterohepatology Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, IR Iran.
authors.forename: Mohammad Hossein
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Imanieh
keywords: Chronic Hepatitis B; Liver Cirrhosis; Longitudinal Study; Prognosis