title: The predictive value of mean serum uric acid levels for developing prediabetes.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We aimed to assess the predictive value of mean serum uric acid (SUA) levels for incident prediabetes.
  
  
  METHODS
  Normoglycemic adults (n=39,353) were followed for a median of 3.0years. Prediabetes is defined as impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or impaired HbA1c (IA1c), based on the American Diabetes Association criteria. Serum SUA levels were measured annually. Four diagnostic strategies were used to detect prediabetes in four separate analyses (Analysis 1: IFG. Analysis 2: IFG+IGT. Analysis 3: IFG+IA1c. Analysis 4: IFG+IGT+IA1c). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the relationship between SUA quintiles and prediabetes. C-statistic was additionally used in the final analysis to assess the accuracy of predictions based upon baseline SUA and mean SUA, respectively.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After adjustment for potential confounders, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of prediabetes for the highest versus lowest quintile of mean SUA were 1.22 (1.10, 1.36) in analysis 1; 1.59 (1.23, 2.05) in analysis 2; 1.62 (1.34, 1.95) in analysis 3 and 1.67 (1.31, 2.13) in analysis 4. In contrast, for baseline SUA, significance was only reached in analyses 3 and 4. Moreover, compared with baseline SUA, mean SUA value was associated with a significant increase in the C-statistic (P<0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Mean SUA value was strongly and positively related to prediabetes risk, and showed better predictive ability for prediabetes than baseline SUA.
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Qing
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Xue
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Bao
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Ge
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Meng
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Li
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Hongmei
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Huanmin
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Du
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Hongbin
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xia
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Xiaoyan
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Xing
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Chunlei
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Qian
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Su
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Yeqing
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Gu
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Liyun
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Fei
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Huijun
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China; Institute of Psychology, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Bin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Shaomei
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Xing
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Qiyu
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Jia
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Honglin
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Guowei
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: Health Management Centre, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China; Nutritional Epidemiology Institute and School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China; Collaborative Innovation Center of Non-communicable Disease, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China. Electronic address: nkj0809@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Kaijun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Niu
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D018149:Glucose Intolerance / Q000097:blood* / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011236:Prediabetic State / Q000097:blood* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D013997:Time Factors; D014527:Uric Acid / Q000097:blood*
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D014527:Uric Acid
keywords: Cohort studies; Prediabetes; Uric acid