title: Assessing Seasonal Risks for the Introduction and Mosquito-borne Spread of Zika Virus in Europe.
abstract: The explosive Zika virus epidemic in the Americas is amplifying spread of this emerging pathogen into previously unaffected regions of the world, including Europe (Gulland, 2016), where local populations are immunologically naïve. As summertime approaches in the northern hemisphere, Aedes mosquitoes in Europe may find suitable climatic conditions to acquire and subsequently transmit Zika virus from viremic travellers to local populations. While Aedes albopictus has proven to be a vector for the transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Europe (Delisle et al., 2015; ECDC, n.d.) there is growing experimental and ecological evidence to suggest that it may also be competent for Zika virus(Chouin-Carneiro et al., 2016; Grard et al., 2014; Li et al., 2012; Wong et al., 2013). Here we analyze and overlay the monthly flows of airline travellers arriving into European cities from Zika affected areas across the Americas, the predicted monthly estimates of the basic reproduction number of Zika virus in areas where Aedes mosquito populations reside in Europe (Aedes aegypti in Madeira, Portugal and Ae. albopictus in continental Europe), and human populations living within areas where mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus may be possible. We highlight specific geographic areas and timing of risk for Zika virus introduction and possible spread within Europe to inform the efficient use of human disease surveillance, vector surveillance and control, and public education resources.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden. Electronic address: joacim.rocklov@umu.se.
authors.forename: Joacim
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rocklöv
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden.
authors.forename: Mikkel Brandon
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Quam
authors.affiliation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Bertrand
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sudre
authors.affiliation: Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: German
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford; Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Moritz U G
authors.initials: MUG
authors.lastname: Kraemer
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford; Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Oliver
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Brady
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Divisions of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada.
authors.forename: Isaac I
authors.initials: II
authors.lastname: Bogoch
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liu-Helmersson
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Sweden; Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
authors.forename: Annelies
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wilder-Smith
authors.affiliation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Jan C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Semenza
authors.affiliation: Geomatics Program, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ong
authors.affiliation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Kaja Kaasik
authors.initials: KK
authors.lastname: Aaslav
authors.affiliation: Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: Kamran
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Khan
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology; D000818:Animals; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012306:Risk; D012621:Seasons; D014195:Travel; D000071244:Zika Virus / Q000502:physiology*; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission
keywords: Aedes; Air travel; Climate; Globalization, mosquito; ZIKV; Zika