title: Riparian responses to extreme climate and land-use change scenarios.
abstract: Climate change will induce alterations in the hydrological and landscape patterns with effects on riparian ecotones. In this study we assess the combined effect of an extreme climate and land-use change scenario on riparian woody structure and how this will translate into a future risk of riparian functionality loss. The study was conducted in the Tâmega catchment of the Douro basin. Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) were used to model two riparian landscape indicators related with the degree of connectivity (Mean Width) and complexity (Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal Dimension). Riparian data were extracted by planimetric analysis of high spatial-resolution Word Imagery Layer (ESRI). Hydrological, climatic and land-use variables were obtained from available datasets and generated with process-based modeling using current climate data (2008-2014), while also considering the high-end RCP8.5 climate-change and "Icarus" socio-economic scenarios for the 2046-2065 time slice. Our results show that hydrological and land-use changes strongly influence future projections of riparian connectivity and complexity, albeit to diverse degrees and with differing effects. A harsh reduction in average flows may impair riparian zones while an increase in extreme rain events may benefit connectivity by promoting hydrologic dynamics with the surrounding floodplains. The expected increase in broad-leaved woodlands and mixed forests may enhance the riparian galleries by reducing the agricultural pressure on the area in the vicinity of the river. According to our results, 63% of river segments in the Tâmega basin exhibited a moderate risk of functionality loss, 16% a high risk, and 21% no risk. Weaknesses and strengths of the method are highlighted and results are discussed based on a resilience perspective with regard to riparian ecosystems.
authors.affiliation: Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Centro de Estudos Florestais (CEF), Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017, Lisboa, Portugal. Electronic address: mrfernandes@isa.ulisboa.pt.
authors.forename: Maria Rosário
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Fernandes
authors.affiliation: Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Centro de Estudos Florestais (CEF), Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017, Lisboa, Portugal. Electronic address: psegurado@isa.ulisboa.pt.
authors.forename: Pedro
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Segurado
authors.affiliation: Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior Técnico, MARETEC, Avenida Rovisco Pais, 1049-001, Lisboa, Portugal. Electronic address: eduardo.jauch@tecnico.ulisboa.pt.
authors.forename: Eduardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Jauch
authors.affiliation: Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Centro de Estudos Florestais (CEF), Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017, Lisboa, Portugal. Electronic address: terferreira@isa.ulisboa.pt.
authors.forename: Maria Teresa
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Ferreira
keywords: Climate change; High-end scenarios; Land-use change; Landscape metrics; Riparian functionality