title: The short-term association between meteorological factors and mumps in Jining, China.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  An increasing trend of the incidence of mumps has been observed in a few developing countries in recent years, presenting a major threat to children's health. A few studies have examined the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps with inconsistent findings.
  
  
  METHODS
  The daily data of meteorological variables and mumps from 2009 to 2013 were obtained from Jining, a temperate inland city of China. A generalized additive model was used to quantify the association between meteorological factors and mumps based on the exposure-response relationship.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 8520 mumps cases were included in this study. We found a nonlinear relationship of daily mean temperature, sunshine duration and relative humidity with mumps, with an approximately linear association for mean temperature above 4°C (excess risk (ER) for 1°C increase was 2.72%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.38%, 3.05% on the current day), for relative humidity above 54%, the ER for 1% increase was -1.86% (95% CI: -2.06%, -1.65%) at lag day 14; and for sunshine duration higher than 5h/d, the ER for per 1h/d increase was12.91% (95% CI: 11.38%, 14.47%) at lag day 1. While we found linear effects for daily wind speed (ER: 2.98%, 95% CI: 2.71%, 3.26% at lag day 13).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study suggests that meteorological factors might be important predictors of incidence of mumps, and should be considered in its control and prevention.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
authors.forename: Runzi
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Hualiang
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Jining Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jining, Shandong, China.
authors.forename: Yumin
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liang
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
authors.forename: Tao
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
authors.forename: Cheng
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
authors.forename: Zheng
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
authors.forename: Qinqin
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
authors.forename: Fuzhong
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Xue
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
authors.forename: Yanxun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China. Electronic address: xjli@sdu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Xiujun
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009107:Mumps / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Generalized additive model; Meteorological factors; Mumps; Time series analysis