title: Risk Prediction Models in Psychiatry: Toward a New Frontier for the Prevention of Mental Illnesses.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We conducted a systematic, qualitative review of risk prediction models designed and tested for depression, bipolar disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, posttraumatic stress disorder, and psychotic disorders. Our aim was to understand the current state of research on risk prediction models for these 5 disorders and thus future directions as our field moves toward embracing prediction and prevention.
  
  
  METHODS
  Systematic searches of the entire MEDLINE electronic database were conducted independently by 2 of the authors (from 1960 through 2013) in July 2014 using defined search criteria. Search terms included risk prediction, predictive model, or prediction model combined with depression, bipolar, manic depressive, generalized anxiety, posttraumatic, PTSD, schizophrenia, or psychosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  We identified 268 articles based on the search terms and 3 criteria: published in English, provided empirical data (as opposed to review articles), and presented results pertaining to developing or validating a risk prediction model in which the outcome was the diagnosis of 1 of the 5 aforementioned mental illnesses. We selected 43 original research reports as a final set of articles to be qualitatively reviewed.
  
  
  METHODS
  The 2 independent reviewers abstracted 3 types of data (sample characteristics, variables included in the model, and reported model statistics) and reached consensus regarding any discrepant abstracted information.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Twelve reports described models developed for prediction of major depressive disorder, 1 for bipolar disorder, 2 for generalized anxiety disorder, 4 for posttraumatic stress disorder, and 24 for psychotic disorders. Most studies reported on sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the (receiver operating characteristic) curve.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Recent studies demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk prediction models for psychiatric disorders (especially psychotic disorders). The field must now advance by (1) conducting more large-scale, longitudinal studies pertaining to depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety disorders, and other psychiatric illnesses; (2) replicating and carrying out external validations of proposed models; (3) further testing potential selective and indicated preventive interventions; and (4) evaluating effectiveness of such interventions in the context of risk stratification using risk prediction models.
authors.affiliation: School of Psychiatry, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy.
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Bernardini
authors.affiliation: School of Psychiatry, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy.
authors.forename: Luigi
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Attademo
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, The George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, Washington, DC, USA.
authors.forename: Sean D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Cleary
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Southwest General Health Center, University Hospitals, Middleburg Heights, Ohio, USA.
authors.forename: Charles
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Luther
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Lenox Hill Hospital, New York, New York, USA.|Hofstra Northwell School of Medicine, Hempstead, New York, USA.
authors.forename: Ruth S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Shim
authors.affiliation: School of Psychiatry, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy.|Department of Medicine, Division of Psychiatry, Clinical Psychology and Psychiatric Rehabilitation, University of Perugia, Santa Maria della Misericordia Hospital, Perugia, Italy.
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Quartesan
authors.affiliation: Lenox Hill Hospital, Department of Psychiatry, 111 E. 77th St, New York, NY 10075. mcompton@northwell.edu.|Department of Psychiatry, Lenox Hill Hospital, New York, New York, USA.|Hofstra Northwell School of Medicine, Hempstead, New York, USA.
authors.forename: Michael T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Compton
mesh_terms: D001008:Anxiety Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology; D001714:Bipolar Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology; D003865:Major Depressive Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D011618:Psychotic Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012559:Schizophrenia / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012565:Schizophrenic Psychology; D013313:Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology