title: Potential risk levels of invasive Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer) in areas optimal for open-field Solanum lycopersicum (tomato) cultivation in the present and under predicted climate change.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Neoleucinodes elegantalis is one of the major insect pests of Solanum lycopersicum. Currently, N. elegantalis is present only in America and the Caribbean, and is a threat in the world's largest S. lycopersicum-producing countries. In terms of potential impact on agriculture, the impact of climate change on insect invasions must be a concern. At present, no research exists regarding the effects of climatic change on the risk level of N. elegantalis. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for S. lycopersicum and N. elegantalis, utilizing CLIMEX to determine risk levels of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation in the present and under projected climate change, using the global climate model CSIRO-Mk3.0.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Large areas are projected to be suitable for N. elegantalis and optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation at the present time. However, in the future these areas will become unsuitable for both species. Conversely, other regions in the future may become optimal for open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation, with a varying risk level for N. elegantalis.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The risk level results presented here provide a useful tool to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of N. elegantalis in open-field S. lycopersicum cultivation. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, MG, Brazil.|Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Ricardo Siqueira
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: da Silva
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Lalit
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kumar
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Management, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Farzin
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Shabani
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, MG, Brazil.|Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marcelo Coutinho
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Picanço
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D020387:Food Chain; D007814:Larva / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology; D018551:Solanum lycopersicum / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009036:Moths / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: CLIMEX; climate change; invasive species; modelling; tomato