title: Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.
abstract: Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK.
authors.forename: Stephen J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Thackeray
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK.
authors.forename: Peter A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Henrys
authors.affiliation: Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK.
authors.forename: Deborah
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Hemming
authors.affiliation: Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK.
authors.forename: James R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Bell
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: Marc S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Botham
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Burthe
authors.affiliation: The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, Devon PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Helaouet
authors.affiliation: The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, Devon PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: David G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Johns
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK.
authors.forename: Ian D
authors.initials: ID
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.affiliation: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.
authors.forename: David I
authors.initials: DI
authors.lastname: Leech
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK.
authors.forename: Eleanor B
authors.initials: EB
authors.lastname: Mackay
authors.affiliation: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.
authors.forename: Dario
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Massimino
authors.affiliation: The Woodland Trust, Kempton Way, Grantham, Lincolnshire NG31 6LL, UK.
authors.forename: Sian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Atkinson
authors.affiliation: Futtie Park, Banchory, Aberdeen AB31 4RX, UK.
authors.forename: Philip J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Bacon
authors.affiliation: Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, East Lulworth, Wareham, Dorset BH20 5QP, UK.
authors.forename: Tom M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Brereton
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK.
authors.forename: Laurence
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Carvalho
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
authors.forename: Tim H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Clutton-Brock
authors.affiliation: Sea Mammal Research Unit, Scottish Oceans Institute, East Sands, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife KY16 8LB, UK.
authors.forename: Callan
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Duck
authors.affiliation: The Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth, Devon PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.affiliation: The Freshwater Biological Association, The Ferry Landing, Far Sawrey, Ambleside, Cumbria LA22 0LP, UK.
authors.forename: J Malcolm
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Elliott
authors.affiliation: University of Lincoln, Riseholme Hall, Riseholme Park, Lincoln, Lincolnshire LN2 2LG, UK.
authors.forename: Stephen J G
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Hall
authors.affiliation: Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Harrington
authors.affiliation: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, UK.
authors.forename: James W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Pearce-Higgins
authors.affiliation: Aarhus Institute of Advanced Studies, Department of Bioscience and Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Høegh-Guldbergs Gade 6B, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Toke T
authors.initials: TT
authors.lastname: Høye
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.|Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, ACT 2612 Australia.
authors.forename: Loeske E B
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Kruuk
authors.affiliation: Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.
authors.forename: Josephine M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Pemberton
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Engineering and Computing, Coventry University, Priory Street, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK.|Institute of Zoology, Poznan´ University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 71C, 60-625 Poznan´, Poland.
authors.forename: Tim H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Sparks
authors.affiliation: University of Aberdeen, Lighthouse Field Station, George Street, Cromarty, Ross-shire IV11 8YJ, UK.
authors.forename: Paul M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.affiliation: People's Trust for Endangered Species, 15 Cloisters House, 8 Battersea Park Road, London SW8 4BG, UK.
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: White
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, Lancashire LA1 4AP, UK.
authors.forename: Ian J
authors.initials: IJ
authors.lastname: Winfield
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wanless
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D066264:Datasets as Topic; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D011891:Rain; D012621:Seasons; D013045:Species Specificity; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D006113:United Kingdom