title: Prevalence and future prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A systematic review of published studies.
abstract: To highlight the prevalence and future projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The systematic analytic study was conducted in the Department of Physiology, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from Dec 2014 to April 2015. Systematic bibliographic search of scientific databases including ISI-web of science, PubMed and Google Scholar was conducted with key words of "diabetes mellitus" "prevalence", "incidence". Total 46 peer reviewed papers were selected and examined. All the experimental and epidemiologic studies reporting the prevalence of diabetes in Saudi Arabia were included. There was no restriction on publication prestige and language of the publication. Finally, we included 21 publications and remaining 25 papers were excluded. The future predicted prevalence of type 2 diabetes was calculated on the results of the published studies by regressing the 33 years (1982-2015) of prevalence rate of diabetes against the time period. The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Saudi Arabia is 32.8%. However, the predicted prevalence will be 35.37% in 2020; 40.37% in 2025 and 45.36% in the year 2030. The coefficient on time factor indicated that prevalence rate has increased during 1982-2015. Saudi Arabia has a highest prevalence (32.8%) of type 2 diabetes mellitus. We forecast that the incidence of type 2 diabetes will increase from 32.8% in 2015 to 45.36% in 2030. Saudi Arabia should include diabetes preventive measures on a war footing basis in their national health policy to minimize the burden of the disease.
authors.affiliation: Department of Physiology, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
authors.forename: Sultan Ayoub
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Meo
mesh_terms: D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000175:diagnosis*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015995:Prevalence; D012529:Saudi Arabia / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Diabetes Mellitus, Prevalence, Future projection, Saudi Arabia.