title: Computational neuroimaging strategies for single patient predictions.
abstract: Neuroimaging increasingly exploits machine learning techniques in an attempt to achieve clinically relevant single-subject predictions. An alternative to machine learning, which tries to establish predictive links between features of the observed data and clinical variables, is the deployment of computational models for inferring on the (patho)physiological and cognitive mechanisms that generate behavioural and neuroimaging responses. This paper discusses the rationale behind a computational approach to neuroimaging-based single-subject inference, focusing on its potential for characterising disease mechanisms in individual subjects and mapping these characterisations to clinical predictions. Following an overview of two main approaches - Bayesian model selection and generative embedding - which can link computational models to individual predictions, we review how these methods accommodate heterogeneity in psychiatric and neurological spectrum disorders, help avoid erroneous interpretations of neuroimaging data, and establish a link between a mechanistic, model-based approach and the statistical perspectives afforded by machine learning.
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich & ETH Zurich, 8032 Zurich, Switzerland; Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London, London, WC1N 3BG, UK; Max Planck Institute for Metabolism Research, 50931 Cologne, Germany.
authors.forename: K E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Stephan
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Campus Charité Mitte, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, 10115 Berlin, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences, 04130 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Schlagenhauf
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich & ETH Zurich, 8032 Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Psychiatry, Psychosomatics and Psychotherapy, Hospital of Psychiatry, University of Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Q J M
authors.initials: QJM
authors.lastname: Huys
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich & ETH Zurich, 8032 Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Raman
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich & ETH Zurich, 8032 Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: E A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Aponte
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich & ETH Zurich, 8032 Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: K H
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Brodersen
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich & ETH Zurich, 8032 Zurich, Switzerland; Max Planck Institute for Metabolism Research, 50931 Cologne, Germany.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Rigoux
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London, London, WC1N 3BG, UK; Virgina Institute of Technology, USA.
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Moran
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich & ETH Zurich, 8032 Zurich, Switzerland; ICM Paris, France.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Daunizeau
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London, London, WC1N 3BG, UK; Max Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research, London, UK.
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Dolan
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London, London, WC1N 3BG, UK.
authors.forename: K J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Friston
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Campus Charité Mitte, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, 10115 Berlin, Germany; Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Berlin School of Mind and Brain, 10115 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Heinz
mesh_terms: D001927:Brain Diseases / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D006801:Humans; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D059906:Neuroimaging / Q000379:methods*
keywords: Bayesian; Classification; Clustering; Computational psychiatry; EEG; Generative embedding; Generative model; Model comparison; Model evidence; Model selection; Translational neuromodeling; fMRI