title: Projections of cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2020 and 2030.
abstract: Past patterns of cancer disease and future changes in the demographic structure have a major influence on the projected incidences of human malignancies. In Germany, nearly a quarter of men and 20% of women die of cancer, and it is estimated that in Germany around 51% men and 43% women will develop cancer during lifetime. Here, we project the cancer incidence case number as well as the number of deaths for the most common cancers in the German population for the years 2020 and 2030. By 2030, prostate cancer will be the most common malignancy, surpassing breast cancer. Lung cancer will rank third most frequent cancer and will remain the most common cause of cancer-related mortality. Additionally, our projections show a marked increase in liver cancer cases with a continuous rise in liver cancer-related deaths. Finally, we project a constant increase in the incidence of pancreatic cancer. Based on our projections, pancreatic cancer will surpass colorectal and breast cancer to rank as the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2030.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Chair of Genetic Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany.|Institute of Genetic Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Anne S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Quante
authors.affiliation: Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Chair of Genetic Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany.|Institute of Genetic Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Chang
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ming
authors.affiliation: Munich Cancer Registry (MCR), Munich Tumour Centre (TZM), Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Miriam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rottmann
authors.affiliation: Munich Cancer Registry (MCR), Munich Tumour Centre (TZM), Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Jutta
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Engel
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine III, Hematology and Oncology, Campus Großhadern, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Boeck
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine III, Hematology and Oncology, Campus Großhadern, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Volker
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Heinemann
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine III, Hematology and Oncology, Campus Großhadern, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany. cwestpha@med.lmu.de.
authors.forename: Christoph Benedikt
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Westphalen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, Chair of Genetic Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany. strauch@helmholtz-muenchen.de.|Institute of Genetic Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany. strauch@helmholtz-muenchen.de.
authors.forename: Konstantin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Strauch
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000266:history / Q000401:mortality; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012737:Sex Factors
keywords: Breast cancer; cancer deaths projection; cancer incidence projection; colon cancer; prostate cancer