title: Prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy in stable coronary disease: comparative observational study of benefits and harms in unselected versus trial populations.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the potential magnitude in unselected patients of the benefits and harms of prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction seen in selected patients with high risk characteristics in trials.
  
  
  METHODS
  Observational population based cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  PEGASUS-TIMI-54 trial population and CALIBER (ClinicAl research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records).
  
  
  METHODS
  7238 patients who survived a year or more after acute myocardial infarction.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy after acute myocardial infarction.
  
  
  METHODS
  Recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease. Fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding.
  
  
  RESULTS
  1676/7238 (23.1%) patients met trial inclusion and exclusion criteria ("target" population). Compared with the placebo arm in the trial population, in the target population the median age was 12 years higher, there were more women (48.6% v 24.3%), and there was a substantially higher cumulative three year risk of both the primary (benefit) trial endpoint of recurrent acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease (18.8% (95% confidence interval 16.3% to 21.8%) v 9.04%) and the primary (harm) endpoint of fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeding (3.0% (2.0% to 4.4%) v 1.26% (TIMI major bleeding)). Application of intention to treat relative risks from the trial (ticagrelor 60 mg daily arm) to CALIBER's target population showed an estimated 101 (95% confidence interval 87 to 117) ischaemic events prevented per 10 000 treated per year and an estimated 75 (50 to 110) excess fatal, severe, or intracranial bleeds caused per 10 000 patients treated per year. Generalisation from CALIBER's target subgroup to all 7238 real world patients who were stable at least one year after acute myocardial infarction showed similar three year risks of ischaemic events (17.2%, 16.0% to 18.5%), with an estimated 92 (86 to 99) events prevented per 10 000 patients treated per year, and similar three year risks of bleeding events (2.3%, 1.8% to 2.9%), with an estimated 58 (45 to 73) events caused per 10 000 patients treated per year.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This novel use of primary-secondary care linked electronic health records allows characterisation of "healthy trial participant" effects and confirms the potential absolute benefits and harms of dual antiplatelet therapy in representative patients a year or more after acute myocardial infarction.
authors.affiliation: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK Barts and The London National Institute for Health Research, Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit, Bart's Heart Centre, London, UK.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Timmis
authors.affiliation: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Rapsomaniki
authors.affiliation: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: S C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Chung
authors.affiliation: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pujades-Rodriguez
authors.affiliation: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Moayyeri
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Stogiannis
authors.affiliation: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: A D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Shah
authors.affiliation: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Pasea
authors.affiliation: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Denaxas
authors.affiliation: AstraZeneca, Luton, Bedfordshire, UK.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Emmas
authors.affiliation: The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hemingway
mesh_terms: D000241:Adenosine / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000031:analogs & derivatives; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001241:Aspirin / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000009:adverse effects; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control; D002423:Cause of Death; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000188:drug therapy*; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D057286:Electronic Health Records; D005260:Female; D006470:Hemorrhage / Q000139:chemically induced*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000517:prevention & control*; D010975:Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000009:adverse effects*; D012307:Risk Factors; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D020521:Stroke / Q000517:prevention & control*; D000077486:Ticagrelor; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D010975:Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors; D000077486:Ticagrelor; D000241:Adenosine; D001241:Aspirin