title: Quantitative option analysis for implementation and management of landfills.
abstract: The selection of the most feasible strategy for implementation of landfills is a challenging step. Potential implementation options of landfills cover a wide range, from conventional construction contracts to the concessions. Montenegro, seeking to improve the efficiency of the public services while maintaining affordability, was considering privatisation as a way to reduce public spending on service provision. In this study, to determine the most feasible model for construction and operation of a regional landfill, a quantitative risk analysis was implemented with four steps: (i) development of a global risk matrix; (ii) assignment of qualitative probabilities of occurrences and magnitude of impacts; (iii) determination of the risks to be mitigated, monitored, controlled or ignored; (iv) reduction of the main risk elements; and (v) incorporation of quantitative estimates of probability of occurrence and expected impact for each risk element in the reduced risk matrix. The evaluated scenarios were: (i) construction and operation of the regional landfill by the public sector; (ii) construction and operation of the landfill by private sector and transfer of the ownership to the public sector after a pre-defined period; and (iii) operation of the landfill by the private sector, without ownership. The quantitative risk assessment concluded that introduction of a public private partnership is not the most feasible option, unlike the common belief in several public institutions in developing countries. A management contract for the first years of operation was advised to be implemented, after which, a long term operating contract may follow.
authors.affiliation: COWI A/S, Lyngby, Denmark meke@cowi.com.
authors.forename: Merih
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kerestecioğlu
mesh_terms: D008962:Models, Theoretical; D054548:Montenegro; D017149:Private Sector / Q000191:economics; D017150:Public Sector / Q000191:economics; D055818:Public-Private Sector Partnerships / Q000191:economics; D012037:Refuse Disposal / Q000191:economics; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000191:economics; D064091:Waste Disposal Facilities / Q000191:economics; D018505:Waste Management / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods*
keywords: Landfill management; investment strategy; option analysis; public private partnership; risk assessment; solid waste management strategy