title: The tax-free year in Iceland: A natural experiment to explore the impact of a short-term increase in labor supply on the risk of heart attacks.
abstract: Evidence is mixed on whether society-wide economic conditions affect cardiovascular health and the reasons for the suggested relationship are largely untested. We explore whether a short-term increase in labor supply affects the probability of acute myocardial infarctions, using a natural experiment in Iceland. In 1987 personal income taxes were temporarily reduced to zero, resulting in an overall increase in labor supply. We merge and analyze individual-level, registry-based data on earnings and AMIs including all Icelandic men and women aged 45-74 during the period 1982-1992. The results support the prominent hypothesis of increased work as a mechanism explaining worsening heart health in upswings, for men aged 45-64 who were self-employed. We furthermore find a larger increase in probability of AMIs during the tax-free year in men aged 45-54 than men aged 55-64.
authors.affiliation: University of Iceland, Oddi v/Sturlugötu, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland. Electronic address: tho32@hi.is.
authors.forename: Thorhildur
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ólafsdóttir
authors.affiliation: University of Iceland, Dunhagi 5, 107 Reykjavík, Iceland.
authors.forename: Birgir
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Hrafnkelsson
authors.affiliation: Landspitali, National University Hospital, University of Iceland, Hringbraut, 101 Reykjavik, Iceland.
authors.forename: Gudmundur
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Thorgeirsson
authors.affiliation: University of Iceland, Oddi v/Sturlugötu, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland.
authors.forename: Tinna Laufey
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Ásgeirsdóttir
mesh_terms: D004651:Employment; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007055:Iceland; D007182:Income; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012306:Risk
keywords: Acute myocardial infarction; Coronary heart disease; Iceland; Labor supply; Natural experiment