title: Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios.
abstract: Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1°C and 5°C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1°C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5°C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Clare
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Heaviside
authors.affiliation: University of Nicosia, 46 Makedonitissas Ave, 1700 Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: Haritini
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tsangari
authors.affiliation: Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, GR-68200 Orestiada, Greece.
authors.forename: Anastasia
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Paschalidou
authors.affiliation: Environmental Change Department, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England, Chilton, Oxon OX11 0RQ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Sotiris
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Vardoulakis
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Meteorology, Department of Physics, University of Ioannina, GR-45110 Ioannina, Greece.
authors.forename: Pavlos
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kassomenos
authors.affiliation: Cyprus Centre for European and International Affairs, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: Kyriakos E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Georgiou
authors.affiliation: University of Nicosia, 46 Makedonitissas Ave, 1700 Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: Edna N
authors.initials: EN
authors.lastname: Yamasaki
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D003535:Cyprus; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D011634:Public Health; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012621:Seasons
keywords: Climate change; Heatwave; Mediterranean; Public health; Temperature