title: Use of Cusp Catastrophe for Risk Analysis of Navigational Environment: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area.
abstract: A water traffic system is a huge, nonlinear, complex system, and its stability is affected by various factors. Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream.
authors.affiliation: Department of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.|Key Laboratory of Hubei Inland Shipping Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
authors.forename: Dan
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2872-2964
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: Department of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.|Key Laboratory of Hubei Inland Shipping Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
authors.forename: Guozhu
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Hao
authors.affiliation: Department of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.|Key Laboratory of Hubei Inland Shipping Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
authors.forename: Liwen
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Hubei Inland Shipping Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.|Department of Navigation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, China.
authors.forename: Dan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D025341:Principal Component Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D045483:Rivers