title: A fast algorithm for calculating an expected outbreak size on dynamic contagion networks.
abstract: Calculation of expected outbreak size of a simple contagion on a known contact network is a common and important epidemiological task, and is typically carried out by computationally intensive simulation. We describe an efficient exact method to calculate the expected outbreak size of a contagion on an outbreak-invariant network that is a directed and acyclic, allowing us to model all dynamically changing networks when contagion can only travel forward in time. We describe our algorithm and its use in pseudocode, as well as showing examples of its use on disease relevant, data-derived networks.
authors.affiliation: Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, United Kingdom. Electronic address: jenright@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Jessica
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Enright
authors.affiliation: Boyd Orr Centre, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G61 1QH, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Rowland R
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Kao
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans
keywords: Contagion on networks; Network modelling