title: Primary Gleason pattern upgrading in contemporary patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer: implications for future biomarkers and imaging modalities.
abstract: To retrospectively assess the rate of high-grade primary Gleason upgrading (HGPGU) to primary Gleason pattern 4 or 5 in a contemporary cohort of patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer including those who fulfilled Prostate Cancer Research International Active Surveillance (PRIAS) criteria, and to develop a tool for HGPGU prediction. HGPGU is a contraindication in most active surveillance (AS) and focal therapy protocols.
  
  
  
  In all, 10 616 patients with localised prostate cancer were treated at a high-volume European tertiary care centre from 2010 to 2015 with radical prostatectomy. Analyses were restricted to 1 819 patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer (17.1%) with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels of <10.0 ng/mL, cT1c-cT2a and Gleason score ≤6, and were repeated within 772 of the men (7.3%) who fulfilled the PRIAS criteria for AS (PSA level of ≤10 ng/mL, T1c-T2, Gleason score ≤6, PSA density (PSAD) of <0.2 ng/mL2, ≤2 positive cores). Uni- and multivariable logistic regression models were fitted, testing predictors of HGPGU. The final logistic regression model was based on the most informative variables.
  
  
  
  There was HGPGU in 88 (4.8%) patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer and in 32 (4.1%) of the subgroup who were PRIAS eligible. Multivariable analysis predicting HGPGU for the patients with D'Amico low-risk yielded three independent predictors: age, PSAD, and clinical tumour stage (P = 0.008, P = 0.005 and P = 0.021, respectively). Within the same patients, the model using all vs the most informative variables resulted in area under the curves (AUCs) of 69.2% and 68.3%, respectively. Multivariable analysis of those who were PRIAS eligible, yielded age and number of positive cores as independent predictors of HGPGU (P = 0.002 and P = 0.049, respectively; AUC 64.9%).
  
  
  
  The low accuracy (invariably <70%) for HGPGU prediction in both patients with D'Amico low-risk prostate cancer and PRIAS eligibility indicates that these variables have poor predictive ability in contemporary patients. Despite HGPGU being a rare phenomenon, it may have life threatening implications and consequently alternatives such as biomarkers, genetic markers, or imaging modalities at re-biopsy are needed.
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Center, Montreal, QC, Canada.|Martini-Clinic, Prostate Cancer Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Sami-Ramzi
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Leyh-Bannurah
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Center, Montreal, QC, Canada.|Department of Urology, University of Montreal Health Center, Montreal, QC, Canada.
authors.forename: Hiba
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Abou-Haidar
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Center, Montreal, QC, Canada.|Department of Urology and Division of Experimental Oncology, URI, Urological Research Institute, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Dell'Oglio
authors.affiliation: Department of Urology, Academic Hospital Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany.
authors.forename: Jonas
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Schiffmann
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Center, Montreal, QC, Canada.|Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.
authors.forename: Zhe
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: Martini-Clinic, Prostate Cancer Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Heinzer
authors.affiliation: Martini-Clinic, Prostate Cancer Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Hartwig
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Huland
authors.affiliation: Martini-Clinic, Prostate Cancer Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Graefen
authors.affiliation: Martini-Clinic, Prostate Cancer Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Budäus
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal Health Center, Montreal, QC, Canada.|Department of Urology, University of Montreal Health Center, Montreal, QC, Canada.
authors.forename: Pierre I
authors.initials: PI
authors.lastname: Karakiewicz
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D060787:Neoplasm Grading; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000473:pathology* / Q000628:therapy; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D057832:Watchful Waiting
chemical_list: D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor
keywords: 
  PRIAS
  ; active surveillance; genetic markers; multiparametric MRI; nomogram