title: Multicenter study on caries risk assessment in adults using survival Classification and Regression Trees.
abstract: Dental caries is an important public health problem worldwide. This study aims to prove how preventive therapies reduce the onset of caries in adult patients, and to identify patients with high or low risk of caries by using Classification and Regression Trees based survival analysis (survival CART). A clinical data set of 732 patients aged 20 to 64 years in nine Japanese general practices was analyzed with the following parameters: age, DMFT, number of mutans streptococci (SM) and Lactobacilli (LB), secretion rate and buffer capacity of saliva, and compliance with a preventive program. Results showed the incidence of primary carious lesion was affected by SM, LB and compliance with a preventive program; secondary carious lesion was affected by DMFT, SM and LB. Survival CART identified high-risk patients for primary carious lesion according to their poor compliance with a preventive program and SM (≥10(6) CFU/ml) with a hazard ratio of 3.66 (p = 0.0002). In the case of secondary caries, patients with LB (≥10(5) CFU/ml) and DMFT (>15) were identified as high risk with a hazard ratio of 3.50 (p < 0.0001). We conclude that preventive programs can be effective in limiting the incidence of primary carious lesion.
authors.affiliation: Department of Restorative Dentistry and Endodontology, Osaka University Graduate School of Dentistry, 1-8 Yamadaoka, Suita, 565-0871, Japan.
authors.forename: Masumi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Arino
authors.affiliation: Department of Restorative Dentistry and Endodontology, Osaka University Graduate School of Dentistry, 1-8 Yamadaoka, Suita, 565-0871, Japan.
authors.forename: Ataru
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ito
authors.affiliation: The Japan Health Care Dental Association, 1-45-15 Sekiguchi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-0014, Japan.
authors.forename: Shozo
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fujiki
authors.affiliation: The Japan Health Care Dental Association, 1-45-15 Sekiguchi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 112-0014, Japan.
authors.forename: Seiichi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sugiyama
authors.affiliation: Department of Restorative Dentistry and Endodontology, Osaka University Graduate School of Dentistry, 1-8 Yamadaoka, Suita, 565-0871, Japan.
authors.forename: Mikako
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hayashi
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D016019:Survival Analysis; D055815:Young Adult