title: Local food web management increases resilience and buffers against global change effects on freshwaters.
abstract: A major challenge for ecological research is to identify ways to improve resilience to climate-induced changes in order to secure the ecosystem functions of natural systems, as well as ecosystem services for human welfare. With respect to aquatic ecosystems, interactions between climate warming and the elevated runoff of humic substances (brownification) may strongly affect ecosystem functions and services. However, we hitherto lack the adaptive management tools needed to counteract such global-scale effects on freshwater ecosystems. Here we show, both experimentally and using monitoring data, that predicted climatic warming and brownification will reduce freshwater quality by exacerbating cyanobacterial growth and toxin levels. Furthermore, in a model based on long-term data from a natural system, we demonstrate that food web management has the potential to increase the resilience of freshwater systems against the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, and thereby that local efforts offer an opportunity to secure our water resources against some of the negative impacts of climate warming and brownification. This allows for novel policy action at a local scale to counteract effects of global-scale environmental change, thereby providing a buffer period and a safer operating space until climate mitigation strategies are effectively established.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology/Aquatic Ecology, Lund University, Ecology building, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden.|Center for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University, Ecology Building, SE-223 62, Lund, Sweden.
authors.forename: Pablo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Urrutia-Cordero
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology/Aquatic Ecology, Lund University, Ecology building, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden.
authors.forename: Mattias K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Ekvall
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology/Aquatic Ecology, Lund University, Ecology building, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden.
authors.forename: Lars-Anders
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Hansson