title: Modelling of marine radionuclide dispersion in IAEA MODARIA program: Lessons learnt from the Baltic Sea and Fukushima scenarios.
abstract: State-of-the art dispersion models were applied to simulate (137)Cs dispersion from Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster fallout in the Baltic Sea and from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant releases in the Pacific Ocean after the 2011 tsunami. Models were of different nature, from box to full three-dimensional models, and included water/sediment interactions. Agreement between models was very good in the Baltic. In the case of Fukushima, results from models could be considered to be in acceptable agreement only after a model harmonization process consisting of using exactly the same forcing (water circulation and parameters) in all models. It was found that the dynamics of the considered system (magnitude and variability of currents) was essential in obtaining a good agreement between models. The difficulties in developing operative models for decision-making support in these dynamic environments were highlighted. Three stages which should be considered after an emergency, each of them requiring specific modelling approaches, have been defined. They are the emergency, the post-emergency and the long-term phases.
authors.affiliation: Dpt Física Aplicada I, ETSIA, Universidad de Sevilla, Ctra Utrera km 1, 41013-Sevilla, Spain. Electronic address: rperianez@us.es.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Periáñez
authors.affiliation: Ukrainian Center of Environmental and Water Projects, Glushkov av., 42, Kiev 03187, Ukraine.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bezhenar
authors.affiliation: Institute of Mathematical Machine and System Problems, Glushkov av., 42, Kiev 03187, Ukraine.
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Brovchenko
authors.affiliation: Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, BP 330, 83507 La Seyne sur Mer, France.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Duffa
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Grini næringspark 13, NO-1332, Østerås, Norway.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Iosjpe
authors.affiliation: Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, 787 Hean-ro, Sangnok-gu, Ansan-si, Gyeonggi-do, 426-744, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: K T
authors.initials: KT
authors.lastname: Jung
authors.affiliation: Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 2-4 Shirakata Shirane, Tokai, Ibaraki 319-1195, Japan.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kobayashi
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Engenheria Nuclear, Rua Hélio de Almeida 75, Ilha do Fundão, CEP 21941-906 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Lamego
authors.affiliation: Institute of Mathematical Machine and System Problems, Glushkov av., 42, Kiev 03187, Ukraine.
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Maderich
authors.affiliation: Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daedeok-Daero 989-111, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: B I
authors.initials: BI
authors.lastname: Min
authors.affiliation: Bundesamt fuer Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Bernhard-Nocht-Str. 78, 20359 Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nies
authors.affiliation: International Atomic Energy Agency Environment Laboratories, 4a Quai Antoine 1er, MC-98000, Monaco.
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Osvath
authors.affiliation: Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Laippatie 4, 00880 Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Outola
authors.affiliation: National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytexneiou 9, 15780 Zografou, Greece.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Psaltaki
authors.affiliation: Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daedeok-Daero 989-111, Yuseong-Gu, Daejeon, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: K S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Suh
authors.affiliation: Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group, Utrechtseweg 310, 6800 ES Arnhem, Netherlands.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: de With
mesh_terms: D002588:Cesium Radioisotopes / Q000032:analysis*; D047852:Chernobyl Nuclear Accident; D062406:Fukushima Nuclear Accident; D008956:Models, Chemical; D009659:North Sea; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D011834:Radiation Monitoring; D011847:Radioactive Fallout / Q000032:analysis*; D014872:Water Movements; D014875:Water Pollutants, Radioactive / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D002588:Cesium Radioisotopes; D011847:Radioactive Fallout; D014875:Water Pollutants, Radioactive; C000614989:Cesium-137
keywords: Baltic Sea; Caesium; Chernobyl; Dispersion model; Fukushima Daiichi; Hydrodynamics