title: Risk analysis of gravity dam instability using credibility theory Monte Carlo simulation model.
abstract: Risk analysis of gravity dam stability involves complicated uncertainty in many design parameters and measured data. Stability failure risk ratio described jointly by probability and possibility has deficiency in characterization of influence of fuzzy factors and representation of the likelihood of risk occurrence in practical engineering. In this article, credibility theory is applied into stability failure risk analysis of gravity dam. Stability of gravity dam is viewed as a hybrid event considering both fuzziness and randomness of failure criterion, design parameters and measured data. Credibility distribution function is conducted as a novel way to represent uncertainty of influence factors of gravity dam stability. And combining with Monte Carlo simulation, corresponding calculation method and procedure are proposed. Based on a dam section, a detailed application of the modeling approach on risk calculation of both dam foundation and double sliding surfaces is provided. The results show that, the present method is feasible to be applied on analysis of stability failure risk for gravity dams. The risk assessment obtained can reflect influence of both sorts of uncertainty, and is suitable as an index value.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 Jiangsu People's Republic of China ; National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 Jiangsu People's Republic of China ; College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 Jiangsu People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Cao
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Xin
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 Jiangsu People's Republic of China ; National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 Jiangsu People's Republic of China ; College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098 Jiangsu People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Gu
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Chongshi
keywords: Anti-sliding stability; Credibility theory; Fuzzy sets; Gravity dam; Risk analysis