title: Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.
abstract: Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Vienna, Austria. ulrike.proebstl@boku.ac.at.
authors.forename: Ulrike
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Pröbstl-Haider
authors.affiliation: Institute of Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Nina M
authors.initials: NM
authors.lastname: Mostegl
authors.affiliation: Institute of Landscape Development, Recreation and Conservation Planning, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Julia
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kelemen-Finan
authors.affiliation: School of Resource and Environmental Management (REM), Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada.
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Haider
authors.affiliation: Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Herbert
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Formayer
authors.affiliation: Institute of Agricultural and Forestry Economics, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Jochen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kantelhardt
authors.affiliation: Institute of Agricultural and Forestry Economics, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Tobias
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Moser
authors.affiliation: Institute of Agricultural and Forestry Economics, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Feistmantelstraße 4, 1180, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kapfer
authors.affiliation: School of Resource and Environmental Management (REM), Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada.
authors.forename: Ryan
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Trenholm
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends*; D001317:Austria; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends*; D017753:Ecosystem; D000067565:Farmers; D005544:Forecasting; D016468:Forestry / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D011050:Policy Making
keywords: Agri-environmental protection schemes; Austria; Biodiversity; Climate change; Decision-making; Environmental premiums; Land use change