title: Carbon sequestration potential of second-growth forest regeneration in the Latin American tropics.
abstract: Regrowth of tropical secondary forests following complete or nearly complete removal of forest vegetation actively stores carbon in aboveground biomass, partially counterbalancing carbon emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, burning of fossil fuels, and other anthropogenic sources. We estimate the age and spatial extent of lowland second-growth forests in the Latin American tropics and model their potential aboveground carbon accumulation over four decades. Our model shows that, in 2008, second-growth forests (1 to 60 years old) covered 2.4 million km(2) of land (28.1% of the total study area). Over 40 years, these lands can potentially accumulate a total aboveground carbon stock of 8.48 Pg C (petagrams of carbon) in aboveground biomass via low-cost natural regeneration or assisted regeneration, corresponding to a total CO2 sequestration of 31.09 Pg CO2. This total is equivalent to carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes in all of Latin America and the Caribbean from 1993 to 2014. Ten countries account for 95% of this carbon storage potential, led by Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela. We model future land-use scenarios to guide national carbon mitigation policies. Permitting natural regeneration on 40% of lowland pastures potentially stores an additional 2.0 Pg C over 40 years. Our study provides information and maps to guide national-level forest-based carbon mitigation plans on the basis of estimated rates of natural regeneration and pasture abandonment. Coupled with avoided deforestation and sustainable forest management, natural regeneration of second-growth forests provides a low-cost mechanism that yields a high carbon sequestration potential with multiple benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA.; International Institute for Sustainability, Estrada Dona Castorina 124, Rio de Janeiro, CEP 22460-320, Brazil.
authors.forename: Robin L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Chazdon
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Conservation Lab, Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
authors.forename: Eben N
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-4488-4237
authors.initials: EN
authors.lastname: Broadbent
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA.; Department of Biology, University of Regina, 3737 Wascana Parkway, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2, Canada.; Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Danaë M A
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Rozendaal
authors.affiliation: Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Frans
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8431-6189
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Bongers
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Conservation Lab, Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA.
authors.forename: Angélica María Almeyda
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5081-9936
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Zambrano
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Puerto Rico, P.O. Box 23360, San Juan, PR 00931-3360, Puerto Rico.
authors.forename: T Mitchell
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Aide
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58089, Morelia, Michoacán, México.
authors.forename: Patricia
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-6408-6876
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Balvanera
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA.
authors.forename: Justin M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Becknell
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269-3043, USA.
authors.forename: Vanessa
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Boukili
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest Sciences, "Luiz de Queiroz" College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Av. Pádua Dias, 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Pedro H S
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Brancalion
authors.affiliation: SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.; Institute for Biology, Leipzig University, Johannisallee 21, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Dylan
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-3940-833X
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Craven
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Botânica-CCB, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Pernambuco, CEP 50670-901, Brazil.
authors.forename: Jarcilene S
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7118-7090
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Almeida-Cortez
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Botânica-CCB, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Pernambuco, CEP 50670-901, Brazil.
authors.forename: George A L
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9804-7231
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Cabral
authors.affiliation: Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, Ciudad Industrial, Lerma 24500, Campeche, Mexico.
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: de Jong
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.
authors.forename: Julie S
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9371-3269
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Denslow
authors.affiliation: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.; Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling FK9 4LA, UK.
authors.forename: Daisy H
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Dent
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University, 132 Long Hall, Clemson, SC 29634, USA.
authors.forename: Saara J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: DeWalt
authors.affiliation: Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán A.C. Unidad de Recursos Naturales, Calle 43 # 130, Colonia Chuburná de Hidalgo, C.P. 97200, Mérida, Yucatán, México.
authors.forename: Juan M
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7491-6837
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Dupuy
authors.affiliation: Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2EG, Canada.
authors.forename: Sandra M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Durán
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Biologia Geral, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros, Montes Claros, Minas Gerais, CEP 39401-089, Brazil.
authors.forename: Mario M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Espírito-Santo
authors.affiliation: Fondo Patrimonio Natural para la Biodiversidad y Areas Protegidas, Calle 72 No. 12-65 piso 6, 110231 Bogota, Colombia.
authors.forename: María C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Fandino
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest Sciences, "Luiz de Queiroz" College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Av. Pádua Dias, 11, 13418-900 Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Ricardo G
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-3392-8089
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: César
authors.affiliation: SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.
authors.forename: Jefferson S
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-4761-9268
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Hall
authors.affiliation: Centro de Investigación Científica de Yucatán A.C. Unidad de Recursos Naturales, Calle 43 # 130, Colonia Chuburná de Hidalgo, C.P. 97200, Mérida, Yucatán, México.
authors.forename: José Luis
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Hernández-Stefanoni
authors.affiliation: Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.; Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.
authors.forename: Catarina C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Jakovac
authors.affiliation: Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands.; Knowledge, Technology and Innovation Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 8130, 6700 EW Wageningen, Netherlands.; Coordenação de Tecnologia e Inovação, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Av. André Araújo 2936, Aleixo, 69060-001 Manaus, Brazil.
authors.forename: André B
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-3681-1705
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Junqueira
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, Colorado Mesa University, 1100 North Avenue, Grand Junction, CO 81501, USA.
authors.forename: Deborah
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-4842-8260
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kennard
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Studies, Purchase College (SUNY), 735 Anderson Hill Road, Purchase, NY 10577, USA.
authors.forename: Susan G
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9475-7674
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Letcher
authors.affiliation: Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.; World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), P.O. Box 30677-00100, Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Madelon
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-3959-1800
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lohbeck
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58089, Morelia, Michoacán, México.
authors.forename: Miguel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Martínez-Ramos
authors.affiliation: Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.
authors.forename: Paulo
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-6396-8244
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Massoca
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
authors.forename: Jorge A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Meave
authors.affiliation: Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.
authors.forename: Rita
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mesquita
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58089, Morelia, Michoacán, México.; Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
authors.forename: Francisco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Mora
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
authors.forename: Rodrigo
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9434-0126
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Muñoz
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.; Section of Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000, Denmark.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-3039-1076
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Muscarella
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Biologia Geral, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros, Montes Claros, Minas Gerais, CEP 39401-089, Brazil.
authors.forename: Yule R F
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-3328-7506
authors.initials: YR
authors.lastname: Nunes
authors.affiliation: Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, Ciudad Industrial, Lerma 24500, Campeche, Mexico.
authors.forename: Susana
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-2145-5728
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ochoa-Gaona
authors.affiliation: Department of Sustainability Science, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Av. Rancho Polígono 2-A, Ciudad Industrial, Lerma 24500, Campeche, Mexico.
authors.forename: Edith
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Orihuela-Belmonte
authors.affiliation: Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Marielos
authors.initials: M
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authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
authors.forename: Eduardo A
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-4136-4500
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Pérez-García
authors.affiliation: Centro de Formação em Ciências Agroflorestais, Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia, Itabuna-BA, 45613-204, Brazil.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Piotto
authors.affiliation: Departments of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior and Plant Biology, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA.
authors.forename: Jennifer S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Powers
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, CP 58089, Morelia, Michoacán, México.
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rodríguez-Velazquez
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecología y Recursos Naturales, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, C.P. 04510, México.
authors.forename: Isabel Eunice
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8282-3005
authors.initials: IE
authors.lastname: Romero-Pérez
authors.affiliation: School of Social Sciences, Geography Area, Universidad Pedagogica y Tecnologica de Colombia, 150003 Tunja, Colombia.; Department of Geography, 4841 Ellison Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-0376-8608
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ruíz
authors.affiliation: Cr 5 No 14-05, P.O. Box 412, Cota, Cundinamarca, Colombia.
authors.forename: Juan G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Saldarriaga
authors.affiliation: Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2EG, Canada.
authors.forename: Arturo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sanchez-Azofeifa
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
authors.forename: Naomi B
authors.initials: NB
authors.lastname: Schwartz
authors.affiliation: Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
authors.forename: Marc K
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7240-1899
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Steininger
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
authors.forename: Nathan G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Swenson
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Uriarte
authors.affiliation: SI ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Roosevelt Avenue, 401 Balboa, Ancon, Panama.; Yale-NUS College, 12 College Avenue West, Singapore 138610, Singapore.; Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117543, Singapore.
authors.forename: Michiel
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-2778-7803
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: van Breugel
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Agricultura, Sociedad y Ambiente, El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Unidad Villahermosa, 86280 Centro, Tabasco, México.; Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090 Amsterdam, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Hans
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-2765-8596
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: van der Wal
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Biologia Geral, Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros, Montes Claros, Minas Gerais, CEP 39401-089, Brazil.
authors.forename: Maria D M
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-2692-0249
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Veloso
authors.affiliation: Bonhoeffer College, Bruggertstraat 60, 7545 AX Enschede, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Vester
authors.affiliation: Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, C.P. 399, CEP 66040-170, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
authors.forename: Ima Celia G
authors.initials: IC
authors.lastname: Vieira
authors.affiliation: Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.
authors.forename: Tony Vizcarra
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9966-5229
authors.initials: TV
authors.lastname: Bentos
authors.affiliation: Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project, Environmental Dynamics Research Coordination, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Manaus, Amazonas, CEP 69067-375, Brazil.; Department of Biological Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803-1705, USA.
authors.forename: G Bruce
authors.initials: GB
authors.lastname: Williamson
authors.affiliation: Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Lourens
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Poorter
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D018533:Biomass; D057486:Carbon Cycle; D057965:Carbon Sequestration; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D000072480:Farms; D065928:Forests; D005843:Geography; D007843:Latin America; D014329:Tropical Climate
keywords: biodiversity; biomass accumulation; carbon mitigation; ecology; forest regeneration; forest regrowth; secondary forests; tropical forests