title: Climate threat on the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora.
abstract: Oceanic islands are of fundamental importance for the conservation of biodiversity because they exhibit high endemism rates coupled with fast extinction rates. Nowhere in Europe is this pattern more conspicuous than in the Macaronesian biogeographic region. A large network of protected areas within the region has been developed, but the question of whether these areas will still be climatically suitable for the globally threatened endemic element in the coming decades remains open. Here, we make predictions on the fate of the Macaronesian endemic bryophyte flora in the context of ongoing climate change. The potential distribution of 35 Macaronesian endemic bryophyte species was assessed under present and future climate conditions using an ensemble modelling approach. Projections of the models under different climate change scenarios predicted an average decrease of suitable areas of 62-87% per species and a significant elevational increase by 2070, so that even the commonest species were predicted to fit either the Vulnerable or Endangered IUCN categories. Complete extinctions were foreseen for six of the studied Macaronesian endemic species. Given the uncertainty regarding the capacity of endemic species to track areas of suitable climate within and outside the islands, active management associated to an effective monitoring program is suggested.
authors.affiliation: Island Ecology and Evolution Research Group, Instituto de Productos Naturales y Agrobiología (IPNA-CSIC), Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.|Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.|Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c)/Azorean Biodiversity Group &University of the Azores, Angra do Heroísmo, Azores, Portugal.|Department of Plant Biology, University of La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain.
authors.forename: Jairo
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Patiño
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Rubén G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Mateo
authors.affiliation: Island Ecology and Evolution Research Group, Instituto de Productos Naturales y Agrobiología (IPNA-CSIC), Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.
authors.forename: Florian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zanatta
authors.affiliation: Island Ecology and Evolution Research Group, Instituto de Productos Naturales y Agrobiología (IPNA-CSIC), Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.
authors.forename: Adrien
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Marquet
authors.affiliation: Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (CSIC), 28006 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Silvia C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Aranda
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c)/Azorean Biodiversity Group &University of the Azores, Angra do Heroísmo, Azores, Portugal.
authors.forename: Paulo A V
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Borges
authors.affiliation: Natuurmuseum Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Gerard
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Dirkse
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c)/Azorean Biodiversity Group &University of the Azores, Angra do Heroísmo, Azores, Portugal.
authors.forename: Rosalina
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gabriel
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology, University of La Laguna, Tenerife, Spain.
authors.forename: Juana M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Gonzalez-Mancebo
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.|Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Antoine
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Guisan
authors.affiliation: Real Jardín Botánico (CSIC), Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Jesús
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Muñoz
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências de Lisboa, Lisboa and Museu Nacional de História Natural e da Ciência, Jardim Botânico, Lisboa, Portugal.
authors.forename: Manuela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sim-Sim
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c)/Azorean Biodiversity Group &University of the Azores, Angra do Heroísmo, Azores, Portugal.|University of Liege, Institute of Botany, 4000 Liege, Belgium.
authors.forename: Alain
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Vanderpoorten
mesh_terms: D044002:Bryophyta / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change; D005060:Europe; D062312:Islands; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D013045:Species Specificity; D013696:Temperature