title: Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling Effect on Intense Tropical Cyclone Distribution and its Future Change with 60 km-AOGCM.
abstract: Atmosphere-ocean coupling effect on the frequency distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and its future change is studied using an atmosphere and ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM). In the present climate simulation, the atmosphere-ocean coupling in the AOGCM improves biases in the AGCM such as the poleward shift of the maximum of intense TC distribution in the Northern Hemisphere and too many intense TCs in the Southern Hemisphere. Particularly, subsurface cold water plays a key role to reduce these AGCM biases of intense TC distribution. Besides, the future change of intense TC distribution is significantly different between AOGCM and AGCM despite the same monthly SST. In the north Atlantic, subsurface warming causes larger increase in frequency of intense TCs in AOGCM than that in AGCM. Such subsurface warming in AOGCM also acts to alter large decrease of intense TC in AGCM to no significant change in AOGCM over the southwestern Indian Ocean. These results suggest that atmosphere-ocean coupling characterized by subsurface oceanic structure is responsible for more realistic intense TC distribution in the current climate simulation and gives significant impacts on its future projection.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan.
authors.forename: Tomomichi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ogata
authors.affiliation: Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan.
authors.forename: Ryo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mizuta
authors.affiliation: Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan.|Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Yukimasa
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Adachi
authors.affiliation: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, USA.
authors.forename: Hiroyuki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Murakami
authors.affiliation: Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan.
authors.forename: Tomoaki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ose