title: National Health Expenditure Projections, 2015-25: Economy, Prices, And Aging Expected To Shape Spending And Enrollment.
abstract: Health spending growth in the United States for 2015-25 is projected to average 5.8 percent-1.3 percentage points faster than growth in the gross domestic product-and to represent 20.1 percent of the total economy by 2025. As the initial impacts associated with the Affordable Care Act's coverage expansions fade, growth in health spending is expected to be influenced by changes in economic growth, faster growth in medical prices, and population aging. Projected national health spending growth, though faster than observed in the recent history, is slower than in the two decades before the recent Great Recession, in part because of trends such as increasing cost sharing in private health insurance plans and various Medicare payment update provisions. In addition, the share of total health expenditures paid for by federal, state, and local governments is projected to increase to 47 percent by 2025.
authors.affiliation: Sean P. Keehan (sean.keehan@cms.hhs.gov) is an economist in the Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), in Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Sean P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Keehan
authors.affiliation: John A. Poisal is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group, CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: John A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Poisal
authors.affiliation: Gigi A. Cuckler is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Gigi A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Cuckler
authors.affiliation: Andrea M. Sisko is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Andrea M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Sisko
authors.affiliation: Sheila D. Smith is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Sheila D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Andrew J. Madison is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Madison
authors.affiliation: Devin A. Stone is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Devin A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Stone
authors.affiliation: Christian J. Wolfe is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Christian J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Wolfe
authors.affiliation: Joseph M. Lizonitz is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Joseph M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Lizonitz
mesh_terms: D000375:Aging; D014487:Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S. / Q000639:trends*; D057217:Economic Development / Q000639:trends; D057172:Economic Recession / Q000639:trends; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D019458:Insurance Coverage / Q000639:trends*; D008297:Male; D058991:Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act / Q000458:organization & administration*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014481:United States
keywords: Cost of Health Care; Health Economics; Health Spending