title: Modelling the influence of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of Anopheles arabiensis.
abstract: Malaria continues to be one of the most devastating diseases in the world, killing more humans than any other infectious disease. Malaria parasites are entirely dependent on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission. For this reason, vector population dynamics is a crucial determinant of malaria risk. Consequently, it is important to understand the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes in the study of malaria transmission. Temperature and precipitation also play a significant role in both aquatic and adult stages of the Anopheles.
  
  
  
  In this study, a climate-based, ordinary-differential-equation model is developed to analyse how temperature and the availability of water affect mosquito population size. In the model, the influence of ambient temperature on the development and the mortality rate of Anopheles arabiensis is considered over a region in KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. In particular, the model is used to examine the impact of climatic factors on the gonotrophic cycle and the dynamics of mosquito population over the study region.
  
  
  
  The results fairly accurately quantify the seasonality of the population of An. arabiensis over the region and also demonstrate the influence of climatic factors on the vector population dynamics. The model simulates the population dynamics of both immature and adult An. arabiensis. The simulated larval density produces a curve which is similar to observed data obtained from another study.
  
  
  
  The model is efficiently developed to predict An. arabiensis population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of various control strategies. In addition, the model framework is built to accommodate human population dynamics with the ability to predict malaria incidence in future.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of the Western Cape, Private Bag X17, Bellville, 7535, Republic of South Africa.
authors.forename: Gbenga J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Abiodun
authors.affiliation: Office of Malaria Research, South African Medical Research Council, Durban, Republic of South Africa. Rajendra.Maharaj@mrc.ac.za.
authors.forename: Rajendra
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-4418-3841
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Maharaj
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of the Western Cape, Private Bag X17, Bellville, 7535, Republic of South Africa.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Witbooi
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Vaal University of Technology, Private Bag X021, Andries Potgieter Blvrd, Vanderbijlpark, 1900, Republic of South Africa.
authors.forename: Kazeem O
authors.initials: KO
authors.lastname: Okosun
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000852:Anopheles / Q000254:growth & development*; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011891:Rain; D013019:South Africa; D013696:Temperature
keywords: Anopheles arabiensis; Mathematical model; Population dynamics; Rainfall; Temperature