title: The PRECOS framework: Measuring the impacts of the global changes on soils, water, agriculture on territories to better anticipate the future.
abstract: In a context of increased land and natural resources scarcity, the possibilities for local authorities and stakeholders of anticipating evolutions or testing the impact of envisaged developments through scenario simulation are new challenges. PRECOS's approach integrates data pertaining to the fields of water and soil resources, agronomy, urbanization, land use and infrastructure etc. It is complemented by a socio-economic and regulatory analysis of the territory illustrating its constraints and stakes. A modular architecture articulates modeling software and spatial and temporal representations tools. It produces indicators in three core domains: soil degradation, water and soil resources and agricultural production. As a territory representative of numerous situations of the Mediterranean Basin (urban pressures, overconsumption of spaces, degradation of the milieus), a demonstration in the Crau's area (Southeast of France) has allowed to validate a prototype of the approach and to test its feasibility in a real life situation. Results on the Crau area have shown that, since the beginning of the 16th century, irrigated grasslands are the cornerstones of the anthropic-system, illustrating how successfully men's multi-secular efforts have maintained a balance between environment and local development. But today the ecosystem services are jeopardized firstly by urban sprawl and secondly by climate change. Pre-diagnosis in regions of Emilia-Romagna (Italy) and Valencia (Spain) show that local end-users and policy-makers are interested by this approach. The modularity of indicator calculations and the availability of geo-databases indicate that PRECOS may be up scaled in other socio-economic contexts.
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France. Electronic address: trolard@avignon.inra.fr.
authors.forename: Fabienne
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Trolard
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Guilhem
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bourrié
authors.affiliation: SYMCRAU, Istres, France.
authors.forename: Antoine
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Baillieux
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Samuel
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Buis
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: André
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chanzy
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Clastre
authors.affiliation: G2C Ingénierie, groupe Altereo, Venelles, France.
authors.forename: Jean-François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Closet
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Dominique
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Courault
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Marie-Lorraine
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Dangeard
authors.affiliation: CNR, IBIMET, Institute of Bioclimatology, Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Nicola
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Di Virgilio
authors.affiliation: Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, UM34 CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France.
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Dussouilliez
authors.affiliation: Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, UM34 CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France.
authors.forename: Jules
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fleury
authors.affiliation: ARTELIA, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Jérémy
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gasc
authors.affiliation: INRA, UR Ecodevelopment, Avignon, France.
authors.forename: Ghislain
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Géniaux
authors.affiliation: ARTELIA, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Jouan
authors.affiliation: Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, UM34 CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France.
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Keller
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Patrice
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lecharpentier
authors.affiliation: ARTELIA, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lecroart
authors.affiliation: INRA, UR Ecodevelopment, Avignon, France.
authors.forename: Claude
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Napoleone
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Gihan
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Mohammed
authors.affiliation: INRA, UAPV, UMR Mediterranean Environment and Modelling of Agro-Hydrosystems, Domaine Saint-Paul, Site Agroparc, 222 Route de l'Aérodrome, 84914 Avignon Cedex 9, France.
authors.forename: Albert
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Olioso
authors.affiliation: INRA, DIV and DS Environment, Sophia Antipolis, France.
authors.forename: Suzanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Reynders
authors.affiliation: CNR, IBIMET, Institute of Bioclimatology, Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Federica
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rossi
authors.affiliation: Imperial College, Center for Environmental Policy, London, UK.
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tennant
authors.affiliation: VAERSA, Valencia, Spain.
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: de Vicente Lopez
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods; D005060:Europe; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012984:Software; D012987:Soil; D014881:Water Supply
chemical_list: D012987:Soil
keywords: Climate change; Resources; Soil; Territory; Urban sprawl; Water