title: Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil.
abstract: It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil's high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m³ and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline.
authors.affiliation: Woodrow Wilson School and Climate Futures Initiative, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. Noah.Scovronick@princeton.edu.|Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK. Noah.Scovronick@princeton.edu.
authors.forename: Noah
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Scovronick
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Geoci&#234;ncias, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ 21941-916, Brazil. daniela.franca@igeo.ufrj.br.
authors.forename: Daniela
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: França
authors.affiliation: Faculdade de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal de Pelotas (Federal University of Pelotas), Cap&#227;o de Le&#227;o, RS 35903-087, Brazil. marcelo.alonso@ufpel.edu.br.
authors.forename: Marcelo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Alonso
authors.affiliation: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (National Institute For Space Research), S&#227;o Jos&#233; dos Campos, SP 12227-010, Brazil. almeida@dsr.inpe.br.
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Almeida
authors.affiliation: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (National Institute For Space Research), S&#227;o Jos&#233; dos Campos, SP 12227-010, Brazil. karla.longo@cptec.inpe.br.
authors.forename: Karla
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Longo
authors.affiliation: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (National Institute For Space Research), S&#227;o Jos&#233; dos Campos, SP 12227-010, Brazil. saulo.freitas@cptec.inpe.br.
authors.forename: Saulo
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Freitas
authors.affiliation: Agrosat&#233;lite Geotecnologia Aplicada Ltda., Florian&#243;polis, SC 88032-005, Brazil. bernardo@agrosatelite.com.br.
authors.forename: Bernardo
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Rudorff
authors.affiliation: Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK. Paul.Wilkinson@lshtm.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Wilkinson
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis* / Q000191:economics; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis* / Q000191:economics; D001938:Brazil; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D000431:Ethanol / Q000032:analysis* / Q000191:economics; D005742:Gasoline / Q000032:analysis* / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010126:Ozone / Q000032:analysis; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D005742:Gasoline; D052638:Particulate Matter; D000431:Ethanol; D010126:Ozone
keywords: air quality; biofuel; cardiovascular; emissions; ethanol; health; pollution; transport