title: Modelling the sensitivity of life history traits to climate change in a temporary pool crustacean.
abstract: Temporary pool inhabitants face altered inundation regimes under climate change. While their exposure to these changes has received considerable attention, few studies have investigated their sensitivity or adaptability. Here, we use zooplankton as a model to explore how decreasing hydroperiods affect extinction risks and assess whether changes in life history traits could promote persistence. For this, we construct a three-stage matrix population model parameterised with realistic life-history values for the fairy shrimp Branchipodopsis wolfi from pools with varying hydroperiods. Our results suggest that extinction risks increase drastically once the median hydroperiod drops below a critical threshold. Although changes in life-history parameters could potentially compensate for this risk, the relative importance of each trait for population growth depends on the median hydroperiod. For example, survival of dormant eggs seemed to be most important when hydroperiods were short while the survival of freshly laid eggs and adult individuals were more important in longer-lived pools. Overall, this study demonstrates that zooplankton species are sensitive to climate change and that the adaptive capacity of organisms from temporary pools with dissimilar hydrology hinges on selection of different life history traits.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Evolution and Conservation, KU Leuven, Ch. Deberiotstraat 32, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.|Centre for Environmental Management, UFS, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein, 9300 South Africa.
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Pinceel
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, VUB, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Bram
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Vanschoenwinkel
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Evolution and Conservation, KU Leuven, Ch. Deberiotstraat 32, 3000 Leuven, Belgium.
authors.forename: Luc
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Brendonck
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environmental Management, UFS, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein, 9300 South Africa.
authors.forename: Falko
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Buschke
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D033202:Anostraca / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change; D064308:Ecological Parameter Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D000071421:Life History Traits; D010063:Ovum / Q000502:physiology; D015048:Zooplankton / Q000502:physiology*