title: Association of Medical Male Circumcision and Antiretroviral Therapy Scale-up With Community HIV Incidence in Rakai, Uganda.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Medical male circumcision (MMC) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) are proven HIV prevention interventions, but there are limited data on the population-level effect of scale-up of these interventions in sub-Saharan Africa. Such evaluation is important for planning and resource allocation.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To examine whether increasing community MMC and ART coverage was associated with reduced community HIV incidence in Rakai District, Uganda.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using person-level data from population-based surveys conducted from 1999 through 2013 in 45 rural Rakai communities, community-level ART and MMC coverage, sociodemographics, sexual behaviors, and HIV prevalence and incidence were estimated in 3 periods: prior to the availability of ART and MMC (1999-2004), during early availability of ART and MMC (2004-2007), and during mature program scale-up (2007-2013).
  
  
  METHODS
  Community MMC coverage in males and ART coverage in HIV-positive persons of the opposite sex based on self-reported MMC status and ART use.
  
  
  METHODS
  Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for sex-specific community HIV incidence estimated using multivariable Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations.
  
  
  RESULTS
  From 1999 through 2013, 44,688 persons participated in 1 or more surveys (mean age at the first survey, 24.6 years [range, 15-49]; female, 56.5%; mean survey participation rate, 92.6% [95% CI, 92.4%-92.7%]). Median community MMC coverage increased from 19% to 39%, and median community ART coverage rose from 0% to 21% in males and from 0% to 26% in females. Median community HIV incidence declined from 1.25 to 0.84 per 100 person-years in males, and from 1.25 to 0.99 per 100 person-years in females. Among males, each 10% increase in community MMC coverage was associated with an adjusted IRR of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93). Comparing communities with MMC coverage more than 40% (mean male community incidence, 1.03 per 100 person-years) with communities with coverage of 10% or less (mean male incidence, 1.69 per 100 person-years), the adjusted IRR was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43-0.88). For each 10% increase in female self-reported ART coverage, there was no significant reduction in male HIV incidence (adjusted IRR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.81-1.13]). Comparing communities with female ART coverage more than 20% (mean male incidence, 0.87 per 100 person-years) to communities with female ART coverage of 20% or less (mean male incidence, 1.17 per 100 person-years), the adjusted IRR was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.61-0.98). Neither MMC nor male ART coverage was associated with lower female community HIV incidence.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In Rakai, Uganda, increasing community MMC and female ART coverage was associated with lower community HIV incidence in males. If similar associations are found elsewhere, this would support further scale-up of MMC and ART for HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland2Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Xiangrong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Kong
authors.affiliation: Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Godfrey
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Kigozi
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland3Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ssekasanvu
authors.affiliation: Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Fred
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Nalugoda
authors.affiliation: Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Gertrude
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Nakigozi
authors.affiliation: Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Anthony
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ndyanabo
authors.affiliation: Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Lutalo
authors.affiliation: Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland5Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.
authors.forename: Steven J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Reynolds
authors.affiliation: Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ssekubugu
authors.affiliation: Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kagaayi
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Eva
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bugos
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland4Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Larry W
authors.initials: LW
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: Population Council, Washington, DC.
authors.forename: Pilgrim
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Nanlesta
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Grabowski
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Mary
authors.affiliation: Center for Communications Programs, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Amanda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Berman
authors.affiliation: Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland5Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.
authors.forename: Thomas C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Quinn
authors.affiliation: Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda8School of Public Health, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Serwadda
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland3Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Maria J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Wawer
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland3Rakai Health Sciences Program, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Ronald H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Gray
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002944:Circumcision, Male; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012424:Rural Population; D012737:Sex Factors; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D014454:Uganda / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents