title: Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.
abstract: Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
authors.forename: Adam H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Sobel
authors.affiliation: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
authors.forename: Suzana J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Camargo
authors.affiliation: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.
authors.forename: Timothy M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Hall
authors.affiliation: International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
authors.forename: Chia-Ying
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA. Center of Excellence for Climate Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
authors.forename: Michael K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Tippett
authors.affiliation: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
authors.forename: Allison A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Wing
mesh_terms: D000336:Aerosols; D055867:Cyclonic Storms; D057232:Global Warming; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006802:Human Activities; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D014329:Tropical Climate
chemical_list: D000336:Aerosols