title: The Effect of Introducing a Minimum Price on the Distribution of Alcohol Purchase: A Counterfactual Analysis.
abstract: We use counterfactual analysis techniques to evaluate the impact of a $2 minimum unit price (MUP) on the distribution of Australian (Victorian) household off-trade alcohol purchases. Our estimates suggest that a $2 MUP significantly reduces the purchases of at-risk households by up to -0.92 [90% CI: -1.55, -0.28] standard drinks at the highest quantiles and has substantially less effect on households purchasing at light and moderate levels. A $2 MUP may reduce the proportions of male and female shoppers purchasing at the public health threshold of more than two standard drinks per household member per day by -3.03 [90% CI: -4.83, -1.22] percentage points (relative variation: -17%); and -1.85 [90% CI: -2.60, -1.10] percentage points (relative variation:-22%), respectively. Implementing an MUP on alcohol thus promises significant positive impacts on public health. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Health Economics, Monash University, Clayton Campus, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.
authors.forename: Anurag
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7570-852X
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sharma
authors.affiliation: PSE, CNRS, EHESS, ENPC, ENS Paris, INRA, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Fabrice
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Etilé
authors.affiliation: Centre for Health Economics, Monash University, Clayton Campus, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.
authors.forename: Kompal
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sinha
mesh_terms: D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000517:prevention & control; D000434:Alcoholic Beverages / Q000191:economics*; D001315:Australia; D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics*; D003258:Consumer Behavior / Q000191:economics; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011634:Public Health; D012737:Sex Factors; D013660:Taxes / Q000191:economics
keywords: alcohol; counterfactual distribution; decomposition; minimum unit price