title: Distributed lag effects and vulnerable groups of floods on bacillary dysentery in Huaihua, China.
abstract: Understanding the potential links between floods and bacillary dysentery in China is important to develop appropriate intervention programs after floods. This study aimed to explore the distributed lag effects of floods on bacillary dysentery and to identify the vulnerable groups in Huaihua, China. Weekly number of bacillary dysentery cases from 2005-2011 were obtained during flood season. Flood data and meteorological data over the same period were obtained from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. To examine the distributed lag effects, a generalized linear mixed model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model were developed to assess the relationship between floods and bacillary dysentery. A total of 3,709 cases of bacillary dysentery were notified over the study period. The effects of floods on bacillary dysentery continued for approximately 3 weeks with a cumulative risk ratio equal to 1.52 (95% CI: 1.08-2.12). The risks of bacillary dysentery were higher in females, farmers and people aged 15-64 years old. This study suggests floods have increased the risk of bacillary dysentery with 3 weeks' effects, especially for the vulnerable groups identified. Public health programs should be taken to prevent and control a potential risk of bacillary dysentery after floods.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.|Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Zhi-Dong
authors.initials: ZD
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.|Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Ying
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical College, Taian, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Guo-Yong
authors.initials: GY
authors.lastname: Ding
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.|Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.|Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Lu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.|Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xue-Na
authors.initials: XN
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.|State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, Beijing 102206, P. R. China.
authors.forename: Qi-Yong
authors.initials: QY
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.|Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Bao-Fa
authors.initials: BF
authors.lastname: Jiang
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003657:Decision Making; D004189:Disaster Planning; D004405:Dysentery, Bacillary / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D005260:Female; D055868:Floods; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D035862:Vulnerable Populations; D014887:Weather; D055815:Young Adult