title: Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change.
abstract: The Paris Conference of Parties (COP21) agreement renewed momentum for action against climate change, creating the space for solutions for conservation of the ocean addressing two of its largest threats: climate change and ocean acidification (CCOA). Recent arguments that ocean policies disregard a mature conservation research field and that protected areas cannot address climate change may be oversimplistic at this time when dynamic solutions for the management of changing oceans are needed. We propose a novel approach, based on spatial meta-analysis of climate impact models, to improve the positioning of marine protected areas to limit CCOA impacts. We do this by estimating the vulnerability of ocean ecosystems to CCOA in a spatially explicit manner and then co-mapping human activities such as the placement of renewable energy developments and the distribution of marine protected areas. We test this approach in the NE Atlantic considering also how CCOA impacts the base of the food web which supports protected species, an aspect often neglected in conservation studies. We found that, in this case, current regional conservation plans protect areas with low ecosystem-level vulnerability to CCOA, but disregard how species may redistribute to new, suitable and productive habitats. Under current plans, these areas remain open to commercial extraction and other uses. Here, and worldwide, ocean conservation strategies under CCOA must recognize the long-term importance of these habitat refuges, and studies such as this one are needed to identify them. Protecting these areas creates adaptive, climate-ready and ecosystem-level policy options for conservation, suitable for changing oceans.
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK.
authors.forename: Ana M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Queirós
authors.affiliation: University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, 22767, Germany.|Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD, 21613, USA.
authors.forename: Klaus B
authors.initials: KB
authors.lastname: Huebert
authors.affiliation: Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Palmaille 9, Hamburg, 22767, Germany.
authors.forename: Friedemann
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Keyl
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK.
authors.forename: Jose A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Fernandes
authors.affiliation: Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Willem
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Stolte
authors.affiliation: Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, The Netherlands.|Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, PO Box 358, Roskilde, 4000, Denmark.
authors.forename: Marie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Maar
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK.
authors.forename: Susan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kay
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
authors.forename: Miranda C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.affiliation: LEI - Wageningen UR, Alexanderveld 5, The Hague, 2585 DB, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Katell G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Hamon
authors.affiliation: Deltares, Boussinesqweg 1, Delft, 2629 HV, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Gerrit
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Hendriksen
authors.affiliation: Département Ressources Biologiques et Environnement, Institut Français de Recherche Pour L'Exploitation de la Mer, Quai Gambetta BP 699, Boulogne-sur-Mer, 62321, France.
authors.forename: Youen
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Vermard
authors.affiliation: Département Ressources Biologiques et Environnement, Institut Français de Recherche Pour L'Exploitation de la Mer, Quai Gambetta BP 699, Boulogne-sur-Mer, 62321, France.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Marchal
authors.affiliation: IMARES, Haringkade 1, Ijmuiden, 1976CP, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Lorna R
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Teal
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK.
authors.forename: Paul J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Somerfield
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK.
authors.forename: Melanie C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Austen
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK.|Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy and Resources Division, Food and Agricultural Organization, Viale Delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome, 00153, Italy.
authors.forename: Manuel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Barange
authors.affiliation: Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, P.O. Box 775, Cambridge, MD, 21613, USA.
authors.forename: Anne F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Sell
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK.
authors.forename: Icarus
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Allen
authors.affiliation: University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, 22767, Germany.
authors.forename: Myron A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Peck
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D020387:Food Chain; D006802:Human Activities; D006801:Humans; D009792:Oceans and Seas
keywords: COP21; climate change; conservation; ecosystem model; habitat; marine spatial planning; ocean; ocean acidification; species distribution; warming