title: On extinction time of a generalized endemic chain-binomial model.
abstract: We considered a chain-binomial epidemic model not conferring immunity after infection. Mean field dynamics of the model has been analyzed and conditions for the existence of a stable endemic equilibrium are determined. The behavior of the chain-binomial process is probabilistically linked to the mean field equation. As a result of this link, we were able to show that the mean extinction time of the epidemic increases at least exponentially as the population size grows. We also present simulation results for the process to validate our analytical findings.
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, Social Sciences University of Ankara, Ankara, Turkey. Electronic address: ozgur.aydogmus@asbu.edu.tr.
authors.forename: Ozgur
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Aydogmus
mesh_terms: D019353:Endemic Diseases / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: Chain-binomial epidemic model; Deterministic approximation; Endemic equilibrium; Global stability; Mean extinction time