title: The epidemiology and transmissibility of Zika virus in Girardot and San Andres island, Colombia, September 2015 to January 2016.
abstract: Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) was first detected in Colombia in September 2015. As of April 2016, Colombia had reported over 65,000 cases of Zika virus disease (ZVD). We analysed daily surveillance data of ZVD cases reported to the health authorities of San Andres and Girardot, Colombia, between September 2015 and January 2016. ZVD was laboratory-confirmed by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in the serum of acute cases within five days of symptom onset. We use daily incidence data to estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) in each population. We identified 928 and 1,936 reported ZVD cases from San Andres and Girardot, respectively. The overall attack rate for reported ZVD was 12.13 cases per 1,000 residents of San Andres and 18.43 cases per 1,000 residents of Girardot. Attack rates were significantly higher in females in both municipalities (p < 0.001). Cases occurred in all age groups with highest rates in 20 to 49 year-olds. The estimated R0 for the Zika outbreak was 1.41 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-1.74) in San Andres and 4.61 (95% CI: 4.11-5.16) in Girardot. Transmission of ZIKV is ongoing in the Americas. The estimated R0 from Colombia supports the observed rapid spread.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States.
authors.forename: Diana Patricia
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Rojas
authors.forename: Natalie E
authors.initials: NE
authors.lastname: Dean
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Eben
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kenah
authors.forename: Juliana
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Quintero
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tomasi
authors.forename: Erika Lorena
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Ramirez
authors.forename: Yendi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Kelly
authors.forename: Carolina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Castro
authors.forename: Gabriel
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Carrasquilla
authors.forename: M Elizabeth
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Halloran
authors.forename: Ira M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Longini
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003105:Colombia / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D016021:Epidemiologic Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D060888:Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction; D017678:Sex Distribution; D055815:Young Adult; D000071244:Zika Virus / Q000235:genetics / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*
keywords: Basic reproductive number; Colombia; Zika virus; epidemiology; outbreak