title: Injury Severity of Motorcycle Riders Involved in Traffic Crashes in Hunan, China: A Mixed Ordered Logit Approach.
abstract: Issues related to motorcycle safety in China have not received enough research attention. As such, the causal relationship between injury outcomes of motorcycle crashes and potential risk factors remains unknown. This study intended to investigate the injury risk of motorcyclists involved in road traffic crashes in China. To account for the ordinal nature of response outcomes and unobserved heterogeneity, a mixed ordered logit model was employed. Given that the crash occurrence process is different between intersections and non-intersections, separate models were developed for these locations to independently estimate the impacts of various contributing factors on motorcycle riders' injury severity. The analysis was based on the police-reported crash dataset obtained from the Traffic Administration Bureau of Hunan Provincial Public Security Ministry. Factors associated with a substantially higher probability of fatalities and severe injuries included motorcycle riders older than 60 years, the absence of helmets, motorcycle riders identified to be equal duty, and when a motorcycle collided with a heavy vehicle during the night time without lighting. Crashes occurred along county roads with curve and slope alignment or at regions with higher GDP were associated with an elevated risk of fatality of motorcycle riders, while unsignalized intersections were related to less severe injuries. Findings of this study are beneficial in forming several targeted countermeasures for motorcycle safety in China, including designing roads with appropriate road delineation and street lighting, strict enforcement for speeding and red light violations, promoting helmet usage, and improving the conspicuity of motorcyclists.
authors.affiliation: School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China. fangrongchang@csu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Fangrong
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China. maosheng.li@csu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Maosheng
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong 999077, China. xh150723@163.com.
authors.forename: Pengpeng
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China. 144212053@csu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Hanchu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety-Queensland (CARRS-Q), Civil Engineering and the Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4059, Australia. m1.haque@qut.edu.au.
authors.forename: Md Mazharul
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Haque
authors.affiliation: School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China. huanghelai@csu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Helai
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Huang
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D006260:Head Protective Devices / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009049:Motorcycles; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D015599:Trauma Severity Indices; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: China; injury severity; mixed ordered logit; motorcyclist; unobserved heterogeneity