title: Estimating the Impact of Raising Prices and Eliminating Discounts on Cigarette Smoking Prevalence in the United States.
abstract: The average retail price per pack of cigarettes is less than $6, which is substantially lower than the $10 per-pack target established in 2014 by the Surgeon General to reduce the smoking rate. We estimated the impact of three cigarette pricing scenarios on smoking prevalence among teens aged 12-17 years, young adults aged 18-25 years, and adults aged ≥26 years, by state: (1) $0.94 federal tax increase on cigarettes, as proposed in the fiscal year 2017 President's budget; (2) $10 per-pack retail price, allowing discounts; and (3) $10 per-pack retail price, eliminating discounts. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to generate point estimates of reductions in cigarette smoking prevalence by state. We found that each price scenario would substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence. A $10 per-pack retail price eliminating discounts could result in 637,270 fewer smokers aged 12-17 years; 4,186,954 fewer smokers aged 18-25 years; and 7,722,460 fewer smokers aged ≥26 years. Raising cigarette prices and eliminating discounts could substantially reduce cigarette smoking prevalence as well as smoking-related death and disease.
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, Atlanta, GA.
authors.forename: Kristy L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Marynak
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, Atlanta, GA.
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, Atlanta, GA.
authors.forename: Xu
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, Atlanta, GA.
authors.forename: Carissa Baker
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Holmes
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health, Atlanta, GA; Oregon Health Authority, Public Health Division, Office of the State Public Health Director, Portland, OR.
authors.forename: Michael A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Tynan
authors.affiliation: Georgia State University, School of Public Health, Division of Health Management & Policy, Atlanta, GA.
authors.forename: Terry
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Pechacek
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003132:Commerce / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D015995:Prevalence; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D062789:Tobacco Products / Q000191:economics*; D014481:United States; D055815:Young Adult