title: Seasonal forecasting and health impact models: challenges and opportunities.
abstract: After several decades of intensive research, steady improvements in understanding and modeling the climate system have led to the development of the first generation of operational health early warning systems in the era of climate services. These schemes are based on collaborations across scientific disciplines, bringing together real-time climate and health data collection, state-of-the-art seasonal climate predictions, epidemiological impact models based on historical data, and an understanding of end user and stakeholder needs. In this review, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of this complex, multidisciplinary collaboration, with a focus on the factors limiting seasonal forecasting as a source of predictability for climate impact models.
authors.affiliation: Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Joan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ballester
authors.affiliation: Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lowe
authors.affiliation: Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Peter J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Diggle
authors.affiliation: Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain.|Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Xavier
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Rodó
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D005544:Forecasting; D062489:Health Impact Assessment / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012621:Seasons; D014887:Weather
keywords: climate services; climate variability; health impacts; seasonal forecasting; statistical models