title: Mexico's epidemic of violence and its public health significance on average length of life.
abstract: A disproportionate number of homicides have caused Mexican life expectancy to stagnate during the new millennium. No efforts currently exist to quantify the harm of violent acts on the lives of the general population. We quantified the impact of perceived vulnerability on life expectancy.
  
  
  
  Three Mexican national surveys on perceptions of public safety, life tables, and crime and vital statistics (2000-2014) were used. Prevalence rates of vulnerability/safety by age and sex were obtained from surveys at 2 different levels: federal state and home. The Sullivan method was used to estimate life expectancy lived with and without vulnerability for Mexican women and men.
  
  
  
  Overall life expectancy at age 20 stagnated between 2005 and 2014 for females and males; yet, there was an increase of 40% and 70% in average number of years lived with vulnerability at the state and home levels, respectively. In 2014, female life expectancy at age 20 was 59.5 years (95% CI 59.0 to 60.1); 71% of these years (42.3 years, 41.6 to 43.0) were spent with perceived vulnerability of violence taking place in the state and 26% at the home (15.3 years, 15 to 15.8). For males, life expectancy at age 20 was 54.5 years (53.7 to 55.1); 64% of these years (34.6 years, 34.0 to 35.4) were lived with perceived vulnerability of violence at the state and 20% at the home (11.1 years, 10.8 to 11.5).
  
  
  
  The number of years lived with perceived vulnerability among Mexicans has increased by 30.5 million person-years over the last 10 years. If perceived vulnerability remains at its 2014 level, the average Mexican adults would be expected to live a large fraction of his/her life with perceived vulnerability of violence. Acts of violence continue to rise in the country and they should be addressed as a major public health issue before they become endemic.
authors.affiliation: Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense C, Denmark.|Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.|Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
authors.forename: Vladimir
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Canudas-Romo
authors.affiliation: Max-Planck Odense Center on the Biodemography of Aging, University of Southern Denmark, Odense C, Denmark.|Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
authors.forename: José Manuel
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Aburto
authors.affiliation: Centro de Estudios Demográficos, Urbanos y Ambientales, El Colegio de Mexico A.C. México City, México.
authors.forename: Victor Manuel
authors.initials: VM
authors.lastname: García-Guerrero
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Health Sciences at the Fielding School of Public Health and California Center for Population Research, Center for Health Sciences, Los Angeles, California, USA.
authors.forename: Hiram
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Beltrán-Sánchez
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015993:Life Tables; D008136:Longevity; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D014754:Violence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: DEMOGRAPHY; HEALTH EXPECTANCY; HOMICIDE; PUBLIC HEALTH; VIOLENCE