title: Using Monte Carlo simulation to assess uncertainty and variability of methamphetamine use and prevalence from wastewater analysis.
abstract: In recent years, methamphetamine (METH) has increased dramatically in China. However, little is known regarding the prevalence of METH use among the general population in China.
  
  
  
  We provided a method to estimate the consumption and prevalence of METH in a city based on wastewater analysis. Monte Carlo simulations were employed to assess the uncertainty and variability of the consumption and prevalence rate in Beijing.
  
  
  
  METH consumption in Beijing based on Monte Carlo simulation varied between 1.3 and 5.2kg per day with a median of 2.6kg per day. In 2013, the 12-month prevalence of METH use was 0.58% (95% confidential interval 0.08-3.16) among the general population aged 15-64 years. A population-weight consumption map displayed the geographical differences in Beijing.
  
  
  
  The proposed method dramatically improved the accuracy and reliability and can be used as a useful complementary tool to official methodologies for drug use monitoring. This report describes the first comprehensive study concerning the prevalence of METH among the general population in mainland China.
authors.affiliation: School of Environmental Science and Technology, Dalian Maritime University, 1 Linghai Road, Dalian, Liaoning 116023, China.
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Pei
authors.affiliation: School of Environmental Science and Technology, Dalian Maritime University, 1 Linghai Road, Dalian, Liaoning 116023, China.
authors.forename: Qiu-Xia
authors.initials: QX
authors.lastname: Zhan
authors.affiliation: School of Environmental Science and Technology, Dalian Maritime University, 1 Linghai Road, Dalian, Liaoning 116023, China.
authors.forename: Zhi-Yu
authors.initials: ZY
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory for Ecological Environment in Coastal Areas (SOA), National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian 116023, China.
authors.forename: Lin-Ke
authors.initials: LK
authors.lastname: Ge
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory for Ecological Environment in Coastal Areas (SOA), National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian 116023, China.
authors.forename: Peng
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology (AEET), School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
authors.forename: Zhuang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: School of Environmental Science and Technology, Dalian Maritime University, 1 Linghai Road, Dalian, Liaoning 116023, China. Electronic address: degaowang@dlmu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: De-Gao
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D019969:Amphetamine-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D055030:Drug Users / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008694:Methamphetamine / Q000032:analysis*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D015995:Prevalence; D013997:Time Factors; D035501:Uncertainty; D014504:Urban Health; D062065:Wastewater / Q000032:analysis*; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D008694:Methamphetamine; D062065:Wastewater; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical
keywords: Dependence; Methamphetamine; Prevalence; Sewage epidemiology; Uncertainty; Variability