title: Systematic review of mathematical models exploring the epidemiological impact of future TB vaccines.
abstract: Mathematical models are useful for assessing the potential epidemiological impact of future tuberculosis (TB) vaccines. We conducted a systematic review of mathematical models estimating the epidemiological impact of future human TB vaccines. PubMed, Embase and WHO Global Health Library were searched, 3-stage manual sifted, and citation- and reference-tracked, identifying 23 papers. An adapted quality assessment tool was developed, with a resulting median study quality score of 20/28. The literature remains divided as to whether vaccines effective pre- or post-infection would provide greatest epidemiological impact. However, all-age or adolescent/adult targeted prevention of disease vaccines achieve greater and more rapid impact than neonatal vaccines. Mass campaigns alongside routine neonatal vaccination can have profound additional impact. Economic evaluations found TB vaccines overwhelmingly cost-effective, particularly when targeted to adolescents/adults. The variability of impact by setting, age group and vaccine characteristics must be accounted for in the development and delivery of future TB vaccines.
authors.affiliation: a TB Modelling Group , TB Centre and Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , London , UK.
authors.forename: Rebecca C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Harris
authors.affiliation: a TB Modelling Group , TB Centre and Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , London , UK.
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sumner
authors.affiliation: a TB Modelling Group , TB Centre and Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , London , UK.|b National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance, Imperial College London , London , UK.
authors.forename: Gwenan M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Knight
authors.affiliation: a TB Modelling Group , TB Centre and Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine , London , UK.
authors.forename: Richard G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: White
mesh_terms: D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D032581:Tuberculosis Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000191:economics / Q000276:immunology*
chemical_list: D032581:Tuberculosis Vaccines
keywords: epidemiology; infectious disease dynamics; mathematical model; systematic review; theoretical models; tuberculosis; vaccines