title: Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability.
abstract: Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers, disintegration of floating ice shelves and a 'greening' through the expansion in range of various flora. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion, local sea-ice loss, an increase in westerly winds, and changes in the strength and location of low-high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation.
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Turner
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: Hua
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: White
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: John C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: King
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: Tony
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Phillips
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: J Scott
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Hosking
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: Thomas J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Bracegirdle
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: Gareth J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Marshall
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mulvaney
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: Pranab
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Deb
mesh_terms: D000864:Antarctic Regions; D001272:Atmosphere / Q000032:analysis; D057232:Global Warming / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D046448:Ice Cover; D012621:Seasons; D012623:Seawater / Q000032:analysis; D013696:Temperature; D014919:Wind