title: Warming-related shifts in the distribution of two competing coastal wrasses.
abstract: Warming induces organisms to adapt or to move to track thermal optima, driving novel interspecific interactions or altering pre-existing ones. We investigated how rising temperatures can affect the distribution of two antagonist Mediterranean wrasses: the 'warm-water' Thalassoma pavo and the 'cool-water' Coris julis. Using field surveys and an extensive database of depth-related patterns of distribution of wrasses across 346 sites, last-decade and projected patterns of distribution for the middle (2040-2059) and the end of century (2080-2099) were analysed by a multivariate model-based framework. Results show that T. pavo dominates shallow waters at warmest locations, where C. julis locates deeper. The northernmost shallow locations are dominated by C. julis where T. pavo abundance is low. Projections suggest that the W-Mediterranean will become more suitable for T. pavo whilst large sectors of the E-Mediterranean will be unsuitable for C. julis, progressively restricting its distribution range. These shifts might result in fish communities' re-arrangement and novel functional responses throughout the food-web.
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università di Palermo, Palermo, Italy. Electronic address: marco.milazzo@unipa.it.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Milazzo
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università di Palermo, Palermo, Italy; Institut de Ciències del Mar, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Federico
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Quattrocchi
authors.affiliation: ISPRA, Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Sts. Livorno, Italy.
authors.forename: Ernesto
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Azzurro
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università di Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors.forename: Angelo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Palmeri
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e del Mare, Università di Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors.forename: Renato
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Chemello
authors.affiliation: USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE CRIOBE, University of Perpignan, CNRS, Perpignan, France.
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Di Franco
authors.affiliation: Université Nice Sophia Antipolis, UCA, CNRS, FRE 3729 ECOMERS, Parc Valrose 28, Avenue Valrose, 06108, Nice, France.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Guidetti
authors.affiliation: National Geographic Society, Washington, D.C., USA; Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes, CEAB-CSIC, Blanes, Spain.
authors.forename: Enric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Sala
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Aziendali e Statistiche, Università di Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors.forename: Mariangela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sciandra
authors.affiliation: Laboratorio di Ecologia, CNR-IAMC, Castellammare del Golfo, TP, Italy.
authors.forename: Fabio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Badalamenti
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecología e Hidrología, Facultad de Biología, Universidad de Murcia, Murcia, Spain.
authors.forename: José A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: García-Charton
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003710:Demography; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005399:Fishes; D020387:Food Chain; D057232:Global Warming; D010473:Perciformes / Q000502:physiology*; D012623:Seawater / Q000737:chemistry*; D013696:Temperature
keywords: Coastal waters; Distributional shifts; Fish; Interspecific interactions; ManyGLM; Mediterranean sea; Temperature; Warming; Wrasses