title: Modelling ecological and human exposure to POPs in Venice lagoon - Part II: Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in coupled exposure models.
abstract: The study is focused on applying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to support the application and evaluation of large exposure models where a significant number of parameters and complex exposure scenarios might be involved. The recently developed MERLIN-Expo exposure modelling tool was applied to probabilistically assess the ecological and human exposure to PCB 126 and 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the Venice lagoon (Italy). The 'Phytoplankton', 'Aquatic Invertebrate', 'Fish', 'Human intake' and PBPK models available in MERLIN-Expo library were integrated to create a specific food web to dynamically simulate bioaccumulation in various aquatic species and in the human body over individual lifetimes from 1932 until 1998. MERLIN-Expo is a high tier exposure modelling tool allowing propagation of uncertainty on the model predictions through Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty in model output can be further apportioned between parameters by applying built-in sensitivity analysis tools. In this study, uncertainty has been extensively addressed in the distribution functions to describe the data input and the effect on model results by applying sensitivity analysis techniques (screening Morris method, regression analysis, and variance-based method EFAST). In the exposure scenario developed for the Lagoon of Venice, the concentrations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and PCB 126 in human blood turned out to be mainly influenced by a combination of parameters (half-lives of the chemicals, body weight variability, lipid fraction, food assimilation efficiency), physiological processes (uptake/elimination rates), environmental exposure concentrations (sediment, water, food) and eating behaviours (amount of food eaten). In conclusion, this case study demonstrated feasibility of MERLIN-Expo to be successfully employed in integrated, high tier exposure assessment.
authors.affiliation: University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Via Torino 155, Mestre, 30172 Venezia, Italy.
authors.forename: Artur
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Radomyski
authors.affiliation: University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Via Torino 155, Mestre, 30172 Venezia, Italy.
authors.forename: Elisa
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Giubilato
authors.affiliation: Electricité de France (EDF) R&D, National Hydraulic and Environment Laboratory, 6 quai Watier, 78400 Chatou, France.
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ciffroy
authors.affiliation: University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Via Torino 155, Mestre, 30172 Venezia, Italy. Electronic address: critto@unive.it.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Critto
authors.affiliation: Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Unité Modèles pour l'Ecotoxicologie et la Toxicologie (METO), Parc ALATA BP2, 60550 Verneuil en Halatte, France.
authors.forename: Céline
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Brochot
authors.affiliation: University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Via Torino 155, Mestre, 30172 Venezia, Italy.
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Marcomini
mesh_terms: D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D020387:Food Chain; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls / Q000032:analysis*; D000072317:Polychlorinated Dibenzodioxins / Q000032:analysis*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D035501:Uncertainty; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000072317:Polychlorinated Dibenzodioxins; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls; C023035:3,4,5,3',4'-pentachlorobiphenyl
keywords: Bioaccumulation model; Exposure modelling; Integrated exposure assessment; PBPK; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis