title: Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.
abstract: The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Atmospheric Science, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Hyunsu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Atmospheric Science, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: kimyk@pusan.ac.kr.
authors.forename: Yoo-Keun
authors.initials: YK
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Marine Sciences, Jeju National University, Jeju 690-756, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Sang-Keun
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: Department of Atmospheric Science, Pusan National University, Busan 609-735, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Hwa Woon
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Lee
keywords: Future climate projection uncertainty; Future land use changes; Future regional climate changes; SMA; Urban growth model; Urban growth scenario