title: Characterization of VP1 sequence of Coxsackievirus A16 isolates by Bayesian evolutionary method.
abstract: Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), a major etiopathologic cause of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) worldwide, has been reported to have caused several fatalities. Revealing the evolutionary and epidemiologic dynamics of CV-A16 across time and space is central to understanding its outbreak potential.
  
  
  
  In this study, we isolated six CV-A16 strains in China's Jilin province and construct a maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree for CV-A16 VP1 gene by the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method using 708 strains from GenBank with epidemiological information. The evolution characteristics of CV-A16 VP1 gene was also analysed dynamicly through Bayesian skyline plot.
  
  
  
  All CV-A16 strains identified could be classified into five major genogroups, denoted by GI-GV. GIV and GV have co-circulated in China since 2007, and the CV-A16 epidemic strain isolated in the Jilin province, China, can be classified as GIV-3. The CV-A16 genogroups circulating recently in China have the same ancestor since 2007. The genetic diversity of the CV-A16 VP1 gene shows a continuous increase since the mid-1990s, with sharp increases in genetic diversity in 1997 and 2007 and reached peak in 2007. Very low genetic diversity existed after 2010. The CV-A16 VP1 gene evolutionary rate was 6.656E-3 substitutions per site per year.
  
  
  
  We predicted the dynamic phylogenetic trends, which indicate outbreak trends of CV-A16, and provide theoretical foundations for clinical prevention and treatment of HFMD which caused by a CV-A16.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathogenobiology, The Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Chinese Ministry of Education, Norman Bethune College of Basic Medicine, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, 130021, China.
authors.forename: Guolian
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathogenobiology, The Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Chinese Ministry of Education, Norman Bethune College of Basic Medicine, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, 130021, China.
authors.forename: Xun
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathogenobiology, The Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Chinese Ministry of Education, Norman Bethune College of Basic Medicine, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, 130021, China.
authors.forename: Changmin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathogenobiology, The Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Chinese Ministry of Education, Norman Bethune College of Basic Medicine, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, 130021, China.
authors.forename: Guoqing
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathogenobiology, The Key Laboratory of Zoonosis, Chinese Ministry of Education, Norman Bethune College of Basic Medicine, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, 130021, China. lifan@jlu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Fan
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Li
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002681:China; D029821:Enterovirus A, Human / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D004769:Enterovirus Infections / Q000821:virology*; D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D014644:Genetic Variation; D006801:Humans; D010802:Phylogeny; D014764:Viral Proteins / Q000235:genetics / Q000378:metabolism*
chemical_list: D014764:Viral Proteins
keywords: Bayesian method; Coxsackievirus A16; Genetic diversity; HFMD; Molecular evolution