title: Dynamics and genetics of a disease-driven species decline to near extinction: lessons for conservation.
abstract: Amphibian chytridiomycosis has caused precipitous declines in hundreds of species worldwide. By tracking mountain chicken (Leptodactylus fallax) populations before, during and after the emergence of chytridiomycosis, we quantified the real-time species level impacts of this disease. We report a range-wide species decline amongst the fastest ever recorded, with a loss of over 85% of the population in fewer than 18 months on Dominica and near extinction on Montserrat. Genetic diversity declined in the wild, but emergency measures to establish a captive assurance population captured a representative sample of genetic diversity from Montserrat. If the Convention on Biological Diversity's targets are to be met, it is important to evaluate the reasons why they appear consistently unattainable. The emergence of chytridiomycosis in the mountain chicken was predictable, but the decline could not be prevented. There is an urgent need to build mitigation capacity where amphibians are at risk from chytridiomycosis.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.|Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NR, UK.|Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, Les Augres Manor, Trinity, Jersey, Channel Islands, UK.
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Hudson
authors.affiliation: Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, Les Augres Manor, Trinity, Jersey, Channel Islands, UK.|Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: R P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Young
authors.affiliation: School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, The Sir Martin Evans Building, Museum Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK.|Department of Biology &Biochemistry, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: D'Urban Jackson
authors.affiliation: School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, The Sir Martin Evans Building, Museum Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Orozco-terWengel
authors.affiliation: Department of Environment, Montserrat Ministry of Agriculture, Housing, Lands and Environment, Montserrat, West Indies.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.affiliation: Forestry, Wildlife and Parks Division, Dominica Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Botanical Gardens, Roseau, Commonwealth of Dominica, West Indies.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: James
authors.affiliation: Forestry, Wildlife and Parks Division, Dominica Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Botanical Gardens, Roseau, Commonwealth of Dominica, West Indies.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sulton
authors.affiliation: Chester Zoo, Cedar House, Caughall Road, Upton by Chester, Chester CH2 1LH, UK.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Garcia
authors.affiliation: Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, Les Augres Manor, Trinity, Jersey, Channel Islands, UK.
authors.forename: R A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Griffiths
authors.affiliation: Division of Agriculture, Dominica Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Botanical Gardens, Roseau, Commonwealth of Dominica, West Indies.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.affiliation: The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire SG19 2DL, UK.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Magin
authors.affiliation: School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, The Sir Martin Evans Building, Museum Avenue, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK.|Sustainable Places Research Institute, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3BB, UK.
authors.forename: M W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Bruford
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
authors.forename: A A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Cunningham
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000235:genetics; D001001:Anura / Q000235:genetics* / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000382:microbiology; D008411:Chytridiomycota / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D019424:Dominica; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D014644:Genetic Variation; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014900:West Indies