title: Impacts of global warming on phenology of spring leaf unfolding remain stable in the long run.
abstract: The impact of spring temperature forcing on the timing of leaf unfolding of plants (temperature sensitivity, ST) is one important indicator of how and to what degree plant species track climate change. Fu et al. (Nature 526:104-107, 2015) found that SThas significantly decreased from the 1980-1994 to the 1999-2013 period for seven mid-latitude tree species in Europe. However, long-term changes in STover the past 60 years are still not clear. Here, using in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species, we analyze the temporal change in STover decadal time scales extending the data series back to 1951. Our results demonstrate that STshows no statistically significant change within shifting 30-year windows from 1951 to 2013 and remains stable between 1951-1980 and 1984-2013 (3.6 versus 3.7 days °C-1). This result suggests that the significant decrease in STover the past 33 years could not be sustained when examining the trends of phenological responses in the long run. Therefore, we could not conclude that tree spring phenology advances will slow down in the future, and the STchanges in warming scenarios are still uncertain.
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Huanjiong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR) and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: This
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Rutishauser
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.|University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Zexing
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Shuying
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhong
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Quansheng
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Ge
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. daijh@igsnrr.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Junhu
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dai
mesh_terms: D005060:Europe; D057232:Global Warming; D018515:Plant Leaves / Q000254:growth & development*; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D014197:Trees / Q000254:growth & development*
keywords: Climate change impact; Leaf unfolding date; Phenology; Temperature sensitivity