title: Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections.
abstract: Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
authors.affiliation: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK.|Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Alexander
authors.affiliation: Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Reinhard
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-4179-6204
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Prestele
authors.affiliation: Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Peter H
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Verburg
authors.affiliation: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany.
authors.forename: Almut
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arneth
authors.affiliation: Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy.
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Baranzelli
authors.affiliation: Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy.
authors.forename: Filipe
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Batista E Silva
authors.affiliation: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK.
authors.forename: Calum
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK.
authors.forename: Adam
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Butler
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA.
authors.forename: Katherine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Calvin
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Namur Research Group on Sustainable Development, University of Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, Namur, B-5000, Belgium.
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Dendoncker
authors.affiliation: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jonathan C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Doelman
authors.affiliation: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK.|Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Dunford
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden.
authors.forename: Kerstin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Engström
authors.affiliation: Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Eitelberg
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan.
authors.forename: Shinichiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fujimori
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK.
authors.forename: Paula A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Harrison
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan.
authors.forename: Tomoko
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hasegawa
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria.
authors.forename: Petr
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Havlik
authors.affiliation: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK.
authors.forename: Sascha
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Holzhauer
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Florian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Humpenöder
authors.affiliation: Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy.
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Jacobs-Crisioni
authors.affiliation: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA.
authors.forename: Atul K
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Jain
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria.
authors.forename: Tamás
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Krisztin
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA.
authors.forename: Page
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kyle
authors.affiliation: Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy.
authors.forename: Carlo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lavalle
authors.affiliation: Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK.
authors.forename: Tim
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Lenton
authors.affiliation: Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK.
authors.forename: Jiayi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA.
authors.forename: Prasanth
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Meiyappan
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Popp
authors.affiliation: Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK.
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Powell
authors.affiliation: Resource and Rural Economics Division, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 20250, USA.
authors.forename: Ronald D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Sands
authors.affiliation: Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, D-34109, Germany.
authors.forename: Rüdiger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Schaldach
authors.affiliation: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Elke
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Stehfest
authors.affiliation: Development Research Group, The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA.
authors.forename: Jevgenijs
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Steinbuks
authors.affiliation: LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Andrzej
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Tabeau
authors.affiliation: LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: van Meijl
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA.
authors.forename: Marshall A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Wise
authors.affiliation: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK.
authors.forename: Mark D A
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Rounsevell
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D018534:Earth, Planet; D005544:Forecasting; D010944:Plants; D035501:Uncertainty
keywords: cropland; land cover; land use; model inter-comparison; uncertainty