title: Lack of Dependence of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Extremes on Temperature: An Observational Evidence.
abstract: The intensification of precipitation extremes in a warming world has been reported on a global scale and is traditionally explained with the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation. The relationship is observed to be valid in mid-latitudes; however, the debate persists in tropical monsoon regions, with the extremes of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) being a prime example. Here, we present a comprehensive study on the dependence of ISMR extremes on both the 2 m surface air temperature over India and on the sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean. Remarkably, the ISMR extremes exhibit no significant association with temperature at either spatial scale: neither aggregated over the entire India/Tropical Indian Ocean area nor at the grid levels. We find that the theoretical C-C relation overestimates the positive changes in precipitation extremes, which is also reflected in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations. We emphasize that the changing patterns of extremes over the Indian subcontinent need a scientific re-evaluation, which is possible due to availability of the unique long-term in-situ data. This can aid bias correction of model projections of extremes whose value for climate adaptation can hardly be overemphasized, especially for the developing tropical countries.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environmental Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076, India.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Vittal
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076, India.|Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076, India.
authors.forename: Subimal
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ghosh
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environmental Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076, India.|Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076, India.
authors.forename: Subhankar
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Karmakar
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076, India.
authors.forename: Amey
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pathak
authors.affiliation: Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076, India.|Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Centre (ESSIC)/DOAS, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA.
authors.forename: Raghu
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Murtugudde