title: Projected Numbers of Ischemic Strokes Recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry from 2012 to 2075.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study analyzed the number of patients with ischemic strokes recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry with the aim of projecting this number from 2012 to 2075 and to highlight that the Austrian health system will face a dramatic increase in older patients within the next few decades.
  
  
  METHODS
  Current demographic information was obtained from EUROSTAT, and information on age- and sex-stratified 1-year incidence rates of ischemic stroke were obtained from the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry. Sensitivity analysis was performed by analyzing the projections based on predicted ageing, main, and growth population scenarios, and with stratification by age and gender.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The total number of ischemic strokes recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry was 8,690 in 2012 and is expected to increase to 15,826, 15,626, or 18,134 in 2075 according to the ageing, main, and growth scenarios, respectively. The corresponding numbers of patients are projected to increase or decrease within different age strata as follows (100%=number of registered ischemic strokes in 2012): 0-40 years, 100%/99% (males/females); 40-50 years, 83%/83%; 50-60 years, 98%/97%; 60-70 years, 126%/119%; 70-80 years, 159%/139%; 80-90 years, 307%/199%; and 90+ years, 894%/413%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The ageing population in Austria will result in the number of patients increasing considerably from 2012 to 2075, to 182%, 180%, or 208% (relative to 100% in 2012) according to the ageing, main, and growth scenarios, respectively; the corresponding value among those aged 80+ years is 315%, 290%, or 347%. These figures demonstrated the importance of improving primary preventive measures. The results of this study should provide a basis for discussions among health-care professionals and economists to face the future large financial burden of ischemic stroke on the Austrian health system.
authors.affiliation: Research Office, Biostatistics, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria. Wolfgang.Hitzl@pmu.ac.at.
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Hitzl
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Christian Doppler Clinic, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.|Research Institute for Neurointervention, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.|Department of Public Health Technology Assessment, UMIT-University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Hall.i.T., Austria.
authors.forename: Eugen
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Trinka
authors.affiliation: Department for Clinical Neurosciences and Preventive Medicine, Danube University, Krems, Austria.
authors.forename: Leonard
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Seyfang
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Christian Doppler Clinic, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mutzenbach
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Christian Doppler Clinic, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Katharina
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Stadler
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Christian Doppler Clinic, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Slaven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Pikija
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Christian Doppler Clinic, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.|Research Institute for Neurointervention, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Monika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Killer
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Christian Doppler Clinic, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.|Research Institute for Neurointervention, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.|Division of Neuroradiology, Department of Radiology, Paracelsus Medical University Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Erasmia
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Broussalis
keywords: Austria; ageing; health system; ischemic stroke; projections; stroke unit