title: Predictive decision making driven by multiple time-linked reward representations in the anterior cingulate cortex.
abstract: In many natural environments the value of a choice gradually gets better or worse as circumstances change. Discerning such trends makes predicting future choice values possible. We show that humans track such trends by comparing estimates of recent and past reward rates, which they are able to hold simultaneously in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC). Comparison of recent and past reward rates with positive and negative decision weights is reflected by opposing dACC signals indexing these quantities. The relative strengths of time-linked reward representations in dACC predict whether subjects persist in their current behaviour or switch to an alternative. Computationally, trend-guided choice can be modelled by using a reinforcement-learning mechanism that computes a longer-term estimate (or expectation) of prediction errors. Using such a model, we find a relative predominance of expected prediction errors in dACC, instantaneous prediction errors in the ventral striatum and choice signals in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex.
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3UD, UK.
authors.forename: Marco K
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5229-7457
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Wittmann
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3UD, UK.
authors.forename: Nils
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kolling
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3UD, UK.|Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Center for Visual Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, New York 14627, USA.
authors.forename: Rei
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Akaishi
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3UD, UK.|Department of Rehabilitation Sciences, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
authors.forename: Bolton K H
authors.initials: BK
authors.lastname: Chau
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana 47405, USA.
authors.forename: Joshua W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3UD, UK.
authors.forename: Natalie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Nelissen
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3UD, UK.|Centre for Functional MRI of the Brain, University of Oxford, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford OX3 9DU, UK.
authors.forename: Matthew F S
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Rushworth
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001288:Attention / Q000502:physiology; D002755:Choice Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D006179:Gyrus Cinguli / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000502:physiology*; D006801:Humans; D007858:Learning / Q000502:physiology; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D017397:Prefrontal Cortex / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000502:physiology*; D012201:Reward; D013997:Time Factors; D055815:Young Adult