title: Model-Based Network Meta-Analysis: A Framework for Evidence Synthesis of Clinical Trial Data.
abstract: Model-based meta-analysis (MBMA) is increasingly used in drug development to inform decision-making and future trial designs, through the use of complex dose and/or time course models. Network meta-analysis (NMA) is increasingly being used by reimbursement agencies to estimate a set of coherent relative treatment effects for multiple treatments that respect the randomization within the trials. However, NMAs typically either consider different doses completely independently or lump them together, with few examples of models for dose. We propose a framework, model-based network meta-analysis (MBNMA), that combines both approaches, that respects randomization, and allows estimation and prediction for multiple agents and a range of doses, using plausible physiological dose-response models. We illustrate our approach with an example comparing the efficacies of triptans for migraine relief. This uses a binary endpoint, although we note that the model can be easily modified for other outcome types.
authors.affiliation: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Mawdsley
authors.affiliation: Pharmacometrics Group, Pfizer Ltd, Sandwich, Kent, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bennetts
authors.affiliation: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dias
authors.affiliation: Pharmacometrics Group, Pfizer Ltd, Sandwich, Kent, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Boucher
authors.affiliation: School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: N J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Welton
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D008881:Migraine Disorders / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013223:Statistics as Topic / Q000379:methods; D014363:Tryptamines / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000071076:Network Meta-Analysis as Topic
chemical_list: D014363:Tryptamines