title: Impact of Health System Inputs on Health Outcome: A Multilevel Longitudinal Analysis of Botswana National Antiretroviral Program (2002-2013).
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To measure the association between the number of doctors, nurses and hospital beds per 10,000 people and individual HIV-infected patient outcomes in Botswana.
  
  
  METHODS
  Analysis of routinely collected longitudinal data from 97,627 patients who received ART through the Botswana National HIV/AIDS Treatment Program across all 24 health districts from 2002 to 2013. Doctors, nurses, and hospital bed density data at district-level were collected from various sources.
  
  
  METHODS
  A multilevel, longitudinal analysis method was used to analyze the data at both patient- and district-level simultaneously to measure the impact of the health system input at district-level on probability of death or loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) at the individual level. A marginal structural model was used to account for LTFU over time.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Increasing doctor density from one doctor to two doctors per 10,000 population decreased the predicted probability of death for each patient by 27%. Nurse density changes from 20 nurses to 25 nurses decreased the predicted probability of death by 28%. Nine percent decrease was noted in predicted mortality of an individual in the Masa program for every five hospital bed density increase.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Considerable variation was observed in doctors, nurses, and hospital bed density across health districts. Predictive margins of mortality and LTFU were inversely correlated with doctor, nurse and hospital bed density. The doctor density had much greater impact than nurse or bed density on mortality or LTFU of individual patients. While long-term investment in training more healthcare professionals should be made, redistribution of available doctors and nurses can be a feasible solution in the short term.
authors.affiliation: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America.
authors.forename: Mansoor
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8968-9822
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Farahani
authors.affiliation: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America.
authors.forename: Natalie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Price
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Shenaaz
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: El-Halabi
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Naledi
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Mlaudzi
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Koona
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Keapoletswe
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Refeletswe
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lebelonyane
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Ernest Benny
authors.initials: EB
authors.lastname: Fetogang
authors.affiliation: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America.
authors.forename: Tony
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Chebani
authors.affiliation: University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Poloko
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kebaabetswe
authors.affiliation: University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Tiny
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Masupe
authors.affiliation: University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Keba
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Gabaake
authors.affiliation: Division of Global HIV/AIDS, Center for Global Health, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
authors.forename: Andrew F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Auld
authors.affiliation: University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Oathokwa
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Nkomazana
authors.affiliation: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Marlink
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D001902:Botswana / Q000453:epidemiology; D003695:Delivery of Health Care; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D006268:Health Facilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D059012:Lost to Follow-Up; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009726:Nurses / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D016017:Odds Ratio; D010820:Physicians / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015397:Program Evaluation; D016019:Survival Analysis
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents