title: Impact of population ageing on growing demand for emergency transportation to emergency departments in Western Australia, 2005-2020.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of the present paper is to quantify the impact of population ageing on demand for emergency transportation (ET) to EDs in Western Australia (WA).
  
  
  METHODS
  A population-based longitudinal study using the statewide ED presentation data from 2005-2014 was used to predict ET demand in 2020, stratified by age group and sex.
  
  
  RESULTS
  From 2005 to 2014, 14.9% of all ED presentations arrived by ET. The number rose from 94 369 (13.9%) in 2005 to 153 374 (15.5%) in 2014, a compound annual growth of 5.5%. Of those presentations, 55.2% resulted in hospital admission. The proportion was higher in older age groups (64.5% in 65-74 years, 67.1% in 75-84 years and 68.4% in ≥85 years). Of ED presentations arriving by ET in age group ≥65 years, 70.9% were Australasian Triage Scale category 1, 2 or 3. The rate of ET per 1000 population increased in all age groups and sex. The highest growth was in the older age groups: from 86.6, 187.0 and 512.1 in ages 65-74 years, 75-84 years and ≥85 years, respectively, in 2005 to 102.5, 226.7 and 613.6 in 2014, and are expected to increase to 115.1, 264.3 and 707.7 by 2020. The ET demands in these age groups were projected to increase annually by 5.0%, 3.6% and 4.9%, respectively, in the next 6 years, comparing to less than 4.5% in the younger age groups.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  There has been a continuous rise in ET demand in WA, particularly in older people who have a higher urgency and requirement for admission.
authors.affiliation: Clinical Modelling, Health System Improvement Unit, System Policy and Planning, Department of Health, Perth, Western Australia, Australia. patrick.aboagye-sarfo@health.wa.gov.au.
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Aboagye-Sarfo
authors.affiliation: Clinical Modelling, Health System Improvement Unit, System Policy and Planning, Department of Health, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Qun
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2974-7266
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Mai
authors.affiliation: Clinical Epidemiology Unit, School of Population Health, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Frank M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: Sanfilippo
authors.affiliation: Emergency Medicine, Royal Perth Hospital, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Daniel M
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9414-6905
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Fatovich
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D014186:Transportation; D014904:Western Australia
keywords: emergency department presentations; emergency transportation demand; linear rate modelling; population ageing; time series analysis