title: High Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus Among a Middle-Aged Population in Iran: A Longitudinal Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  There are few data concerning the incidence rates of diabetes in Iran. This study aimed to determine the incidence of diabetes and its risk factors in a middle-aged population in Iran.
  
  
  METHODS
  All of the people who participated in the first phase of the Shahroud eye cohort study were invited to the study in 2014; after signing informed consent forms, a total of 4737 people 45 to 69 years of age were enrolled in the second phase of the study (participation rate: 91.3%). The 5-year incidence rate of diabetes was determined by age and sex, and we used the binomial logistic regression model to calculate the risk ratio.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of diabetes in the second phase was 20.19% in men, 26.45% in women and 23.89% in the total group. The 5-year incidence of diabetes was 11.19% in men, 15.55% in women and 13.73% in both sexes. With increases in age, the incidence of diabetes rose in both sexes. Age (risk ratio [RR]: 1.02; CI 95%: 1.01 to 1.03) hypertension (RR: 1.41; CI 95%: 1.15 to 1.74), being overweight (RR: 2.17; CI 95%: 1.64 to 2.88) and obesity (RR: 3.4; CI 95%: 2.53 to 4.41) were associated with increased risks for the incidence of diabetes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study is 1 of the few studies in Iran that has reported the incidence of diabetes. Because the incidence of diabetes was high in the studied population, it is necessary for the health system to design and implement emergency intervention to prevent further spread of diabetes and its complications.
authors.affiliation: Center for Health Related Social and Behavioral Sciences Research, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran.
authors.forename: Hossein
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ebrahimi
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran.
authors.forename: Mohammad Hassan
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Emamian
authors.affiliation: Noor Ophthalmology Research Center, Noor Eye Hospital, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Hassan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hashemi
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Electronic address: afotouhi@tums.ac.ir.
authors.forename: Akbar
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fotouhi
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000032:analysis*; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000503:physiopathology*; D050177:Overweight / Q000503:physiopathology*; D011379:Prognosis
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D001786:Blood Glucose; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin; C517652:hemoglobin A1c protein, human
keywords: Iran; diabetes mellitus; diabète sucré; facteur de risque; incidence; population-based study; risk factor; étude en population générale