title: Effects of a warming trend on cool climate viticulture in Michigan, USA.
abstract: Historically, Michigan's climate had mainly three challenges for grape production: growing season temperatures were too low, the growing season was too short and there was too much rain near harvest. However, climate change in the past decades has led to a vastly different landscape that is evolving to meet the new climate. Recently, there has been a significant move from Vitis labrusca (North American) grape plantings to Vitis vinifera (wine grapes) as a consequence of Michigan's shifting climate. The goal of this study was to analyze the historical shift in climate and its potential future impact on the grape industry. We obtained data climate model projection data from two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. First, a multi-linear regression model was built to predict future grape yields (t/ac) using data from the climate model projections. Second, trends in the severity of the three challenges (temperature, season length, precipitation timing) were analyzed. In both GHG scenarios grape yields are seen to improve, but to different extents. The improvement is likely a response to warmer season temperatures canceling out losses to early season frost. Model projections recommend that Michigan's future climate will be more accommodating for all varieties of grapes. This suggests that grape production will continue to grow, but the landscape will continue to evolve with more emphasis on varieties that are more climatically sensitive to cold temperatures. Climate change has greatly affected Michigan's viticultural landscape, and will continue to do so in the coming decades.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 USA ; Department of Earth Sciences, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 36688 USA ; 5871 USA North Drive, Life Sciences Classroom Building (LSCB), Room 136, Mobile, AL 36688-0002 USA.
authors.forename: Steven R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Schultze
authors.affiliation: Department of Horticulture, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 USA.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Sabbatini
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 USA ; Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 USA.
authors.forename: Lifeng
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Luo
keywords: Agriculture; Climate change; Climate model projections; Great Lakes; Landscape change; Viticulture