title: Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.
abstract: Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level.
authors.affiliation: School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Whiteknights, PO Box 237, Reading RG6 6AR, UK.
authors.forename: Fay
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Newbery
authors.affiliation: Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts AL5 2JQ, UK; School of Life & Medical Sciences, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield AL10 9AB, UK.
authors.forename: Aiming
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Qi
authors.affiliation: School of Life & Medical Sciences, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield AL10 9AB, UK. Electronic address: b.fitt@herts.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Bruce Dl
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Fitt
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D008962:Models, Theoretical