title: Cutaneous leishmaniasis prevalence and morbidity based on environmental factors in Ilam, Iran: Spatial analysis and land use regression models.
abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the environmental factors on cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) prevalence and morbidity in Ilam province, western Iran, as a known endemic area for this disease. Accurate locations of 3237 CL patients diagnosed from 2013 to 2015, their demographic information, and data of 17 potentially predictive environmental variables (PPEVs) were prepared to be used in Geographic Information System (GIS) and Land-Use Regression (LUR) analysis. The prevalence, risk, and predictive risk maps were provided using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) model in GIS software. Regression analysis was used to determine how environmental variables affect on CL prevalence. All maps and regression models were developed based on the annual and three-year average of the CL prevalence. The results showed that there was statistically significant relationship (P value≤0.05) between CL prevalence and 11 (64%) PPEVs which were elevation, population, rainfall, temperature, urban land use, poorland, dry farming, inceptisol and aridisol soils, and forest and irrigated lands. The highest probability of the CL prevalence was predicted in the west of the study area and frontier with Iraq. An inverse relationship was found between CL prevalence and environmental factors, including elevation, covering soil, rainfall, agricultural irrigation, and elevation while this relation was positive for temperature, urban land use, and population density. Environmental factors were found to be an important predictive variables for CL prevalence and should be considered in management strategies for CL control.
authors: Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran.
authors: Mehdi
authors: M
authors: Mokhtari
authors: Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences, Sabzevar, Iran.
authors: Mohammad
authors: M
authors: Miri
authors: Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran; Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran. Electronic address: nikoonahad_ali_n@yahoo.com.
authors: Ali
authors: A
authors: Nikoonahad
authors: Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran.
authors: Ali
authors: A
authors: Jalilian
authors: Vice-Chancellor for Health, Ilam University of Medical Science, Ilam, Iran.
authors: Razi
authors: R
authors: Naserifar
authors: Social Determinants in Health Promotion Research Center, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran; Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors: Hamid Reza
authors: HR
authors: Ghaffari
authors: Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran.
authors: Farogh
authors: F
authors: Kazembeigi
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000531:Altitude; D002947:Cities; D004777:Environment; D065928:Forests; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D006801:Humans; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D007493:Iraq; D016773:Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D015995:Prevalence; D011891:Rain; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012987:Soil; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D012987:Soil
keywords: Cutaneous leishmaniasis; Environmental variable; GIS; LUR; Spatial analysis