title: Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.
abstract: Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.
authors: Forest Insect Pests and Diseases Division, National Institute of Forest Science, Dongdaemun, Seoul 02455, Republic of Korea.
authors: Tae-Sung
authors: TS
authors: Kwon
authors: Department of Life and Nanopharmaceutical Sciences and Department of Biology, Kyung Hee University, Dongdaemun, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea.
authors: Fengqing
authors: F
authors: Li
authors: Research Institute for East Asian Environment and Biology, Arisuro 25 Nagil 24, Gangdong, Seoul 05207, Republic of Korea.
authors: Sung-Soo
authors: SS
authors: Kim
authors: Division of Forest Ecology, National Institute of Forest Science, Seoul 02455, Republic of Korea.
authors: Jung Hwa
authors: JH
authors: Chun
authors: Department of Life and Nanopharmaceutical Sciences and Department of Biology, Kyung Hee University, Dongdaemun, Seoul 02447, Republic of Korea.
authors: Young-Seuk
authors: YS
authors: Park
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001000:Ants; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D065928:Forests; D057232:Global Warming; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012307:Risk Factors