title: Predictive global trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer based on geographic location, socio-economic status, and demographic shift.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Pancreatic Cancer (PC) is a lethal malignancy that accounts for about 4% of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The aim of this study is to describe the influence of geography (based on WHO regions), socio-economic development (based on Human Development Index [HDI]) and demographic shift on the temporal trends in global incidence and mortality of PC.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data (2012-2030) relating to the incidence, mortality of PC and demographic shifts based on WHO regions and HDI areas were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012. Linear regression was used to evaluate trends in total incidence and mortality.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We noted a definite association between PC and higher socio-economic status. Advanced age (age ≥65) contributed to the rising burden in all socio-economic regions of the world except in the Low Human Development (LHD) countries where the disease predominantly affected population <65 years of age.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The global burden of PC is expected to rise significantly over the next few decades regardless of geographic location, socio-economic development, age and gender. Advance knowledge of this data can help formulate strategies to specifically target countries and populations that promote public health policy to tackle this lethal disease on the global stage. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:736-742. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
authors: Division of Surgical Oncology, Department of Surgery, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska. care@unmc.edu.
authors: Chandrakanth
authors: C
authors: Are
authors: Section of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Boston University Medical Center, Boston, Massachusetts.
authors: Sanjib
authors: S
authors: Chowdhury
authors: Department of Surgery, Gundersen Medical Foundation, La Crosse, Wisconsin.
authors: Humera
authors: H
authors: Ahmad
authors: University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida.
authors: Advaitaa
authors: A
authors: Ravipati
authors: Department of Hepatobiliary Tumor, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin, China.
authors: Tianqiang
authors: T
authors: Song
authors: Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai, India.
authors: Shailesh
authors: S
authors: Shrikandhe
authors: College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska.
authors: Lynette
authors: L
authors: Smith
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016208:Databases, Factual; D019049:Developed Countries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003906:Developing Countries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D014943:Global Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012307:Risk Factors; D012923:Social Class
keywords: Human Development Index (HDI); WHO regions; demographic shift; global pancreatic cancer burden; predictive trends based on GLOBOCAN 2012 database