title: Predictors of Mortality in Paediatric Myocarditis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Paediatric myocarditis can present as mild flu like symptoms to fulminent form. Early identification of the severity of illness and prioritization of intensive care is helpful especially in developing countries with limited resources.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To know the factors at admission that can predict mortality in paediatric myocarditis.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was an observational study which enrolled children who presented with fever of acute onset (less than 15 days in duration), and were diagnosed as suspected myocarditis on the basis of clinical features, Troponin I and echocardiography, according to Expanded criteria for myocarditis in Paediatric ward at our institute over a period from August 2014 to December 2015. Their clinical features, cardiac biomarkers and echocardiography findings were compared between survivors and non-survivors.
  
  
  METHODS
  All statistical analysis was done using graphpad Prism 5 and SPSS statistical software. A Fisher exact p-value <0.05 was regarded as significant. Multivariate Logistic Regression was carried out to quantify the relationship between cardiac death and other predictor variables. The logistic coefficients for the predictor variables and their exponents, that is, log odds were calculated. Statistical significance of these predictor variables was interpreted by p-values.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A 17.7% (n=11/62) patients of paediatric myocarditis died in this study. New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV dyspnea (p=0.0115) and hypotension (p=0.0174) were more in patients who did not survive. The mean value of Troponin I was more in the non-survivor group (0.958 ± 1.13ng/ml); (p=0.0074). More number of patients who died had Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) levels increased in their plasma (p=0.0087) with higher mean value (p=0.0175). LV ejection fraction was decreased markedly in non survivor group with mean value of 37±8.09 % as compared to survivor group with mean value of 46.6±10.5%, (p=0.0115). On multivariate analysis, NYHA class IV dyspnea (p=0.0113), BNP (p=0.015) and ejection fraction (p = 0.0284) independently are the predictors of mortality in our study group.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Children with myocarditis having hypotension, raised Troponin I, BNP and decreased ejection fraction are more prone to die. NYHA IV dyspnea, higher levels of BNP and decreased EF are independently related to worst outcome.
authors: Senior Resident, Department of Paediatrics, B.R.D. Medical College , Gorakhpur, India .
authors: Shahla
authors: S
authors: Abrar
authors: Lecturer, Department of Paediatrics, B.R.D. Medical College , Gorakhpur, India .
authors: Mohammed Junaid
authors: MJ
authors: Ansari
authors: Associate Professor, Department of Paediatrics, B.R.D. Medical College , Gorakhpur, India .
authors: Mahima
authors: M
authors: Mittal
authors: Professor, Department of Paediatrics, B.R.D. Medical College , Gorakhpur, India .
authors: K P
authors: KP
authors: Kushwaha
keywords: Brain Natriuretic Peptide; Cardiac markers; Ejection fraction; Troponin I