title: Baseline metabolic disturbances and the twenty-five years risk of incident cancer in a Mediterranean population.
abstract: Obesity is predictive of metabolic syndrome (metS), type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular (CV) disease and cancer. The aim of the study is to assess the risk of incident cancer connected to obesity and metS in a Mediterranean population characterized by a high prevalence of obesity.
  
  
  
  As many as 1133 subjects were enrolled in two phases and followed for 25 years (859 subjects) or 11 years (274 subjects) and incident cancer was registered in the follow-up period. Anthropometric measures and biochemical parameters were filed at baseline and evaluated as predictors of incident cancer by measuring hazards ratios (HR) using multivariate Cox parametric hazards models. Best predictive threshold for metabolic parameters and metS criteria were recalculated by ROC analysis. Fasting Blood Glucose >5.19 mmol/L [HR = 1.58 (1.0-2.4)] and the TG/HDL ratio (log10) (Males > 0.225, Females > 0.272) [HR = 2.44 (1.3-4.4)] resulted independent predictors of survival free of cancer with a clear additive effect together with age classes [45-65 years, HR = 2.47 (1.3-4.4), 65-75 years HR = 3.80 (2.0-7.1)] and male gender [HR = 2.07 (2.3-3.1)].
  
  
  
  Metabolic disturbances are predictive of cancer in a 25 years follow-up of a Mediterranean population following a traditional Mediterranean diet. The high prevalence of obesity and metS and the observed underlying condition of insulin resistance expose this population to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer despite the healthy nutritional habits.
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: D
authors: D
authors: Noto
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: A B
authors: AB
authors: Cefalù
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: C M
authors: CM
authors: Barbagallo
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Ganci
authors: Department of Geriatrics, "Villa Sofia-Cervello" Hospital, Palermo, Italy.
authors: G
authors: G
authors: Cavera
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: F
authors: F
authors: Fayer
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: O
authors: O
authors: Palesano
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Spina
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: V
authors: V
authors: Valenti
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: G I
authors: GI
authors: Altieri
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Caldarella
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Giammanco
authors: Department of Geriatrics, "A.U.S.L. 6", Palermo, Italy.
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Termini
authors: Department of Geriatrics, "A.U.S.L. 6", Palermo, Italy.
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Burrascano
authors: Department of Geriatrics, "A.U.S.L. 6", Palermo, Italy.
authors: G
authors: G
authors: Crupi
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Falletta
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors: V
authors: V
authors: Scafidi
authors: Department of Geriatrics, "A.U.S.L. 6", Palermo, Italy.
authors: D
authors: D
authors: Sbordone
authors: Department of Geriatrics, "A.U.S.L. 6", Palermo, Italy.
authors: F
authors: F
authors: La Seta
authors: Department of Biomedicine, Internal Medicine and Specialties (Di.Bi.MIS), University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy. Electronic address: maurizio.averna@unipa.it.
authors: M R
authors: MR
authors: Averna
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D000072001:Diet, Healthy; D038441:Diet, Mediterranean; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007333:Insulin Resistance; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008055:Lipids / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D009765:Obesity / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D065840:Protective Factors; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D001786:Blood Glucose; D008055:Lipids
keywords: Cancer; Epidemiology; Lipids; Metabolic syndrome