title: Cross-scale integration of knowledge for predicting species ranges: a metamodeling framework.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Current interest in forecasting changes to species ranges have resulted in a multitude of approaches to species distribution models (SDMs). However, most approaches include only a small subset of the available information, and many ignore smaller-scale processes such as growth, fecundity, and dispersal. Furthermore, different approaches often produce divergent predictions with no simple method to reconcile them. Here, we present a flexible framework for integrating models at multiple scales using hierarchical Bayesian methods.
  
  
  METHODS
  Eastern North America (as an example).
  
  
  METHODS
  Our framework builds a metamodel that is constrained by the results of multiple sub-models and provides probabilistic estimates of species presence. We applied our approach to a simulated dataset to demonstrate the integration of a correlative SDM with a theoretical model. In a second example, we built an integrated model combining the results of a physiological model with presence-absence data for sugar maple (Acer saccharum), an abundant tree native to eastern North America.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For both examples, the integrated models successfully included information from all data sources and substantially improved the characterization of uncertainty. For the second example, the integrated model outperformed the source models with respect to uncertainty when modelling the present range of the species. When projecting into the future, the model provided a consensus view of two models that differed substantially in their predictions. Uncertainty was reduced where the models agreed and was greater where they diverged, providing a more realistic view of the state of knowledge than either source model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We conclude by discussing the potential applications of our method and its accessibility to applied ecologists. In ideal cases, our framework can be easily implemented using off-the-shelf software. The framework has wide potential for use in species distribution modelling and can drive better integration of multi-source and multi-scale data into ecological decision-making.
authors: Département de biologie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada; Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Université Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France.
authors: Matthew V
authors: MV
authors: Talluto
authors: Département de biologie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada; Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
authors: Isabelle
authors: I
authors: Boulangeat
authors: Centre d'Étude de la Forêt, Département des sciences biologiques, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
authors: Aitor
authors: A
authors: Ameztegui
authors: Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, Canada.
authors: Isabelle
authors: I
authors: Aubin
authors: Département de biologie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada; Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Centre for Northern Studies, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada.
authors: Dominique
authors: D
authors: Berteaux
authors: Département de biologie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada; Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
authors: Alyssa
authors: A
authors: Butler
authors: Université du Québec en Outaouais, Gatineau, Quebec, Canada; Institut des Sciences de la Forêt Tempérée (ISFORT), Ripon, Quebec, Canada.
authors: Frédérik
authors: F
authors: Doyon
authors: The Nature Conservancy Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.
authors: C Ronnie
authors: CR
authors: Drever
authors: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
authors: Marie-Josée
authors: MJ
authors: Fortin
authors: Département de biologie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada.
authors: Tony
authors: T
authors: Franceschini
authors: Department of Mathematics, Washington State University, Vancouver, Washington, USA.
authors: Jean
authors: J
authors: Liénard
authors: Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, Canada.
authors: Dan
authors: D
authors: McKenney
authors: Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Université Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France.
authors: Kevin A
authors: KA
authors: Solarik
authors: Department of Mathematics, Washington State University, Vancouver, Washington, USA.
authors: Nikolay
authors: N
authors: Strigul
authors: Université Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France; CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France.
authors: Wilfried
authors: W
authors: Thuiller
authors: Département de biologie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Quebec, Canada; Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
authors: Dominique
authors: D
authors: Gravel
keywords: Climate change; decision making; patterns and processes; range dynamics; scaling; spatial ecology; species distribution modeling; uncertainty