title: Road accidents and business cycles in Spain.
abstract: This paper explores the causes behind the downturn in road accidents in Spain across the last decade. Possible causes are grouped into three categories: Institutional factors (a Penalty Point System, PPS, dating from 2006), technological factors (active safety and passive safety of vehicles), and macroeconomic factors (the Great recession starting in 2008, and an increase in fuel prices during the spring of 2008). The PPS has been blessed by incumbent authorities as responsible for the decline of road fatalities in Spain. Using cointegration techniques, the GDP growth rate, the fuel price, the PPS, and technological items embedded in motor vehicles appear to be statistically significantly related with accidents. Importantly, PPS is found to be significant in reducing fatal accidents. However, PPS is not significant for non-fatal accidents. In view of these results, we conclude that road accidents in Spain are very sensitive to the business cycle, and that the PPS influenced the severity (fatality) rather than the quantity of accidents in Spain. Importantly, technological items help explain a sizable fraction in accidents downturn, their effects dating back from the end of the nineties.
authors: Departamento de Economía, Métodos Cuantitativos e Historia Económica, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Carretera de Utrera km.1 41013, Seville, Spain. Electronic address: jrodlop@upo.es.
authors: Jesús
authors: J
authors: Rodríguez-López
authors: Departamento de Economía, Contabilidad y Finanzas and CEDESOG, Campus de Guajara, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna, 38071, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain. Electronic address: gmarrero@ull.edu.es.
authors: Gustavo A
authors: GA
authors: Marrero
authors: Departamento de Economía, Contabilidad y Finanzas, Instituto Universitario de Desarrollo Regional, Campus de Guajara, Universidad de La Laguna, La Laguna, 38071, Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain. Electronic address: rmglzmar@ull.es.
authors: Rosa Marina
authors: RM
authors: González
authors: Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Huelva, Plaza de La Merced 11, 21071 Huelva, Spain. Electronic address: mtleal@uhu.es.
authors: Teresa
authors: T
authors: Leal-Linares
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D007182:Income / Q000639:trends; D035846:Law Enforcement; D018986:Motor Vehicles; D012449:Safety / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012621:Seasons; D013030:Spain
keywords: Active safety; Autoregressive distributed lags models; Business cycle; Cointegration; Passive safety; Penalty point system; Road accidents