title: Development of new diabetes risk scores on the basis of the current definition of diabetes in Japanese subjects [Rapid Communication].
abstract: To develop diabetes risk score (RS) based on the current definition of diabetes, we retrospectively analyzed consecutive 4,159 health examinees who were non-diabetic at baseline. Diabetes, diagnosed by fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, 2hPG ≥11.1 mmol/L and/or HbA1c ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol), developed in 279 of them during the mean period of 4.9 years. A full RS (RSFull), a RS without 2hPG (RS-2hPG) and a non-invasive RS (RSNI) were created on the basis of multivariate Cox proportional model by weighted grading based on hazard ratio in half the persons assigned. The RSs were verified in the remaining half of the participants. Positive family history (FH), male sex, smoking and higher age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), FPG, 2hPG and HbA1c were independent predictors for RSFull. For RS-2hPG, 7 independent predictors, exclusive of 2hPG and smoking but inclusive of elevated triglycerides (TG) comparing to RSFull, were selected. FH, male sex, and higher age, SBP and HbA1c were independent predictors in RSNI. In the validation cohort, C-statistic (95%CI) of RSFull, RS-2hPGand RSNIwere 0.80 (0.76-0.84), 0.75 (0.70-0.78) and 0.68 (0.63-0.72), respectively, which were significantly different from each other (P <0.01). Absolute percentage difference between predicted probability and observed diabetes were 1.9%, 0.7% and 0.9%, by the three scores, respectively, and not significantly different from each other. In conclusion, diabetes defined by the current criteria was predicted by the new diabetes risk scores with reasonable accuracy. Nonetheless, RSFullwith a postchallenge glucose value performed superior to RS-2hPGand RSNI.
authors: Diabetes Center, Aizawa Hospital, Matsumoto 390-8510, Japan.
authors: Takahiro
authors: T
authors: Miyakoshi
authors: Rie
authors: R
authors: Oka
authors: Yasuto
authors: Y
authors: Nakasone
authors: Yuka
authors: Y
authors: Sato
authors: Keishi
authors: K
authors: Yamauchi
authors: Rie
authors: R
authors: Hashikura
authors: Masayuki
authors: M
authors: Takayama
authors: Yudai
authors: Y
authors: Hirayama
authors: Kazuko
authors: K
authors: Hirabayashi
authors: Hideo
authors: H
authors: Koike
authors: Toru
authors: T
authors: Aizawa
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology*; D003940:Diagnostic Techniques, Endocrine / Q000592:standards; D005215:Fasting / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test / Q000592:standards; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012107:Research Design; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin