title: Predictive ability of a simple subjective memory complaints scale for incident dementia: Evaluation of Japan's national checklist, the "Kihon Checklist".
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Subjective memory complaints scales are expected to be useful for the prediction of future cognitive decline. In Japan, the "Kihon Checklist-Cognitive Function" (KCL-CF), which consists of three items, is used for primary screening of high-risk older adults. However, the predictive validity of the KCL-CF remains unknown. The aim of the present cohort study was to examine whether the KCL-CF can predict the incidence of dementia.
  
  
  METHODS
  Information on the KCL-CF score (0-3 points) was collected from community-dwelling older adults (≥65 years) through a questionnaire. Data on incident dementia were retrieved from the Long-term Care Insurance database. The Cox model and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were used.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among 13 974 participants, the 5.7-year rate of incident dementia was 8.8%. All KCL-CF items significantly predicted the risk of incident dementia even after adjustment for age and sex (P-trend < 0.0001). A higher KCL-CF score was associated with a higher risk of dementia; the age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) were 1.00 (reference) for a KCL-CF score of 0 points, 1.89 (1.65-2.15) for 1 point, 3.01 (2.59-3.50) for 2 points, and 6.20 (4.87-7.90) for 3 points (P-trend < 0.0001). A cut-off score of ≥1 points had a specificity of 65.1% and a sensitivity of 60.2%, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.63-0.66).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The KCL-CF was able to predict incident dementia. However, because a false-negativity rate of approximately 40% would be expected, the KCL-CF score alone might not be sufficient for screening of dementia incidence. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 1300-1305.
authors: Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.
authors: Yasutake
authors: Y
authors: Tomata
authors: Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.
authors: Kemmyo
authors: K
authors: Sugiyama
authors: Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.
authors: Yu
authors: Y
authors: Kaiho
authors: Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.
authors: Yumi
authors: Y
authors: Sugawara
authors: Division of Personalized Prevention and Epidemiology, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, Tohoku Medical Megabank Organization, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.
authors: Atsushi
authors: A
authors: Hozawa
authors: Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Informatics and Public Health, Tohoku University School of Public Health, Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan.
authors: Ichiro
authors: I
authors: Tsuji
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D057189:Checklist; D003704:Dementia / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D057187:Independent Living; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000379:methods*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012306:Risk; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
keywords: cohort study; dementia; long-term care insurance; predictive validity; subjective memory complaints