title: Probabilistic assessment of the influence of lake properties in long-term radiation doses to humans.
abstract: The assessment processes concerning the safety of nuclear waste repositories include the modelling of radionuclide transport in biosphere and the evaluation of the doses to the most affected humans. In this paper, a scenario, in which a contaminated lake is the water source for drinking water, irrigation water and watering of livestock, is presented. The objective of the paper is to probabilistically study the influence of lake properties as parameters in the assessment scenario. The properties of the lake are a result of previously conducted probabilistic studies, where the land uplift of the terrain surrounding the repositories and the formation of water bodies were studied in a 10,000-year time span using Monte Carlo simulation. The lake is formed at 3000 years from present day and the changing properties of the lake have been used in the study. The studied radionuclides36Cl,135Cs,129I,237Np,90Sr,99Tc and238U enter the lake with a rate of 1 Bq/year. The transport process from the lake water to humans is described and the doses (dose conversion factors) to adult humans are evaluated based on a study on average food consumption. Sensitivity analysis is used for identifying the parameters having the most influence on the outcome of the dose. Based on the results from the sensitivity analysis, the volumetric outflow rate of the lake and the volume of the lake were taken into closer consideration. The results show the influence of probabilistically derived geomorphic lake input parameters on the dose.
authors: Tampere University of Technology, Pohjoisranta 11 A, FI-28100, Pori, Finland. Electronic address: jari.pohjola@tut.fi.
authors: Jari
authors: J
authors: Pohjola
authors: Tampere University of Technology, Pohjoisranta 11 A, FI-28100, Pori, Finland.
authors: Jari
authors: J
authors: Turunen
authors: Tampere University of Technology, Pohjoisranta 11 A, FI-28100, Pori, Finland.
authors: Tarmo
authors: T
authors: Lipping
authors: Environmental Research and Assessment EnviroCase, Ltd., Hallituskatu 1 D 4, FI-28100, Pori, Finland.
authors: Ari T K
authors: AT
authors: Ikonen
mesh_terms: D004781:Environmental Exposure; D060106:Lakes / Q000737:chemistry*; D008956:Models, Chemical; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011829:Radiation Dosage; D011834:Radiation Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D011850:Radioactive Waste / Q000032:analysis*; D014875:Water Pollutants, Radioactive / Q000032:analysis; D014878:Water Pollution, Radioactive / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
chemical_list: D011850:Radioactive Waste; D014875:Water Pollutants, Radioactive
keywords: Biosphere analysis; Dose conversion factor; Radionuclide; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis