title: Lifetime risk of stroke in young-aged and middle-aged Chinese population: the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study.
abstract: Stroke is a major cause of premature death in China. Early prevention of stroke requires a more effective method to differentiate the stroke risk among young-aged and middle-aged individuals than the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to establish a lifetime stroke risk model and risk charts for the young-aged and middle-aged population in China.
  
  
  
  The Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study participants (n = 21 953) aged 35-84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed for 18 years (263 016 person-years). Modified Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the mean lifetime stroke risk up to age of 80 years and the lifetime stroke risk according to major stroke risk factors for the population aged 35-60 years.
  
  
  
  A total of 917 participants developed first-ever strokes. For the participants aged 35-40 years (98 stroke cases), the lifetime stroke risk was 18.0 and 14.7% in men and women, respectively. Blood pressure most effectively discriminated the lifetime stroke risk. The lifetime risk of stroke for the individuals with all risk factors optimal was 8-10 times lower compared with those with two or more high risk factors at age 35-60 years at baseline.
  
  
  
  In young-aged and middle-aged population, the lifetime stroke risk will keep very low if major risk factors especially blood pressure level is at optimal levels, but the risk substantially increases even with a slight elevation of major risk factors, which could not be identified using 10-year risk estimation.
authors: Department of Epidemiology, Beijing An Zhen Hospital, Capital Medical University, the Key Laboratory of Remodeling-Related Cardiovascular Diseases, Ministry of Education, Beijing Institute of Heart, Lung and Blood Vessel Diseases, Beijing, China.
authors: Ying
authors: Y
authors: Wang
authors: Jing
authors: J
authors: Liu
authors: Wei
authors: W
authors: Wang
authors: Miao
authors: M
authors: Wang
authors: Yue
authors: Y
authors: Qi
authors: Wuxiang
authors: W
authors: Xie
authors: Yan
authors: Y
authors: Li
authors: Jiayi
authors: J
authors: Sun
authors: Jun
authors: J
authors: Liu
authors: Dong
authors: D
authors: Zhao
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D044466:Asian People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001794:Blood Pressure; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*