title: Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.
abstract: Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming.
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; Western Australian Marine Science Institution, Floreat, Western Australia 6014, Australia.
authors.forename: Ryan Joseph
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7080-8406
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Lowe
authors.affiliation: School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Xavier
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Pivan
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; Western Australian Marine Science Institution, Floreat, Western Australia 6014, Australia.
authors.forename: James
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-6211-7018
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Falter
authors.affiliation: School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; Western Australian Marine Science Institution, Floreat, Western Australia 6014, Australia.
authors.forename: Graham
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Symonds
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.; Western Australian Marine Science Institution, Floreat, Western Australia 6014, Australia.
authors.forename: Renee
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8788-6910
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gruber
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia; D057231:Climate Change; D057894:Coral Reefs; D017753:Ecosystem; D012623:Seawater; D013472:Sunlight; D013696:Temperature; D055871:Tidal Waves
keywords: Tides; coral reefs; ocean temperature; reef morphology; sea level rise; thermodynamics