title: A generalized regression model of arsenic variations in the shallow groundwater of Bangladesh.
abstract: Localized studies of arsenic (As) in Bangladesh have reached disparate conclusions regarding the impact of irrigation-induced recharge on As concentrations in shallow (≤50 m below ground level) groundwater. We construct generalized regression models (GRMs) to describe observed spatial variations in As concentrations in shallow groundwater both (i) nationally, and (ii) regionally within Holocene deposits where As concentrations in groundwater are generally high (>10 μg L-1). At these scales, the GRMs reveal statistically significant inverse associations between observed As concentrations and two covariates: (1) hydraulic conductivity of the shallow aquifer and (2) net increase in mean recharge between predeveloped and developed groundwater-fed irrigation periods. Further, the GRMs show that the spatial variation of groundwater As concentrations is well explained by not only surface geology but also statistical interactions (i.e., combined effects) between surface geology and mean groundwater recharge, thickness of surficial silt and clay, and well depth. Net increases in recharge result from intensive groundwater abstraction for irrigation, which induces additional recharge where it is enabled by a permeable surface geology. Collectively, these statistical associations indicate that irrigation-induced recharge serves to flush mobile As from shallow groundwater.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London London UK.
authors.forename: Mohammad
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Shamsudduha
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography University College London London UK.
authors.forename: Richard G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistical Science University College London London UK.
authors.forename: Richard E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Chandler
keywords: Bangladesh; arsenic; groundwater‐fed irrigation; recharge; regression model