title: [Horizon scanning in preparation for future health threats: a pilot exercise conducted by the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance in 2014].
abstract: Background: Health surveillance is a reactive process, with no real hindsight for dealing with signals and alerts. It may fail to detect more radical changes with a major medium-term or long-term impact on public health. To increase proactivity, the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance has opted for a prospective monitoring approach.Methods: Several steps were necessary: 1) Identification of public health determinants. 2) Identification of key variables based on a combination of determinants. Variables were classified into three groups (health event trigger factors, dissemination factors and response factors) and were submitted to future development assumptions. 3) Identification, in each of the three groups, of micro-scenarios derived from variable trends. 4) Identification of macro-scenarios, each built from the three micro-scenarios for each of the three groups. 5) Identification of issues for the future of public health.Results: The exercise identified 22 key variables, 17 micro-scenarios and 5 macro-scenarios. The topics retained relate to issues on social and territorial health inequalities, health burden, individual and collective responsibilities in terms of health, ethical aspects, emerging phenomena, ‘Big data’, data mining, new health technologies, interlocking of analysis scales.Conclusions: The approach presented here guides the programming of activities of a health safety agency, particularly for monitoring and surveillance. By describing possible future scenarios, health surveillance can help decision-makers to influence the context towards one or more favourable futures.
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Eilstein
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Bertrand
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Xerri
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Anne-Catherine
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Viso
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Hélène
authors.lastname: Therre
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Maud
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gorza
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Doriane
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fuchs
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Jérôme
authors.lastname: Pozuelos
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Sophie
authors.lastname: Ioos
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Didier
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Che
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Edwige
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bertrand
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Mounia
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: El Yamani
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Pascal
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Empereur-Bissonnet
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.lastname: Duport
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
authors.forename: Jean-Claude
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Desenclos
authors.affiliation: Santé Publique France
mesh_terms: D000047:Academies and Institutes; D005602:France; D006285:Health Planning; D006801:Humans; D010865:Pilot Projects; D062486:Public Health Surveillance
keywords: horizon scanning; epidemic intelligence; Public Health; anticipation; future; readiness and preparedness