title: Trajectories of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation Over a 25-Year Follow-Up: The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities).
abstract: Timing and trajectories of cardiovascular risk factor (CVRF) development in relation to atrial fibrillation (AF) have not been described previously. We assessed trajectories of CVRF and incidence of AF over 25 years in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities).
  
  
  
  We assessed trajectories of CVRF in 2456 individuals with incident AF and 6414 matched control subjects. Subsequently, we determined the association of CVRF trajectories with the incidence of AF among 10 559 AF-free individuals (mean age, 67 years; 52% men; 20% blacks). Risk factors were measured during 5 examinations between 1987 and 2013. Cardiovascular events, including incident AF, were ascertained continuously. We modeled the prevalence of risk factors and cardiovascular outcomes in the period before and after AF diagnosis and the corresponding index date for control subjects using generalized estimating equations. Trajectories in risk factors were identified with latent mixture modeling. The risk of incident AF by trajectory group was examined with Cox models.
  
  
  
  The prevalence of stroke, myocardial infarction, and heart failure increased steeply during the time close to AF diagnosis. All CVRFs were elevated in AF cases compared with controls >15 years before diagnosis. We identified distinct trajectories for all the assessed CVRFs. In general, individuals with trajectories denoting long-term exposure to CVRFs had increased AF risk even after adjustment for single measurements of the CVRFs.
  
  
  
  AF patients have increased prevalence of CVRF many years before disease diagnosis. This analysis identified diverse trajectories in the prevalence of these risk factors, highlighting their different roles in AF pathogenesis.
authors.affiliation: From Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.). flopez@umn.edu.
authors.forename: Faye L
authors.initials: FL
authors.lastname: Norby
authors.affiliation: From Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
authors.forename: Elsayed Z
authors.initials: EZ
authors.lastname: Soliman
authors.affiliation: From Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
authors.forename: Lin Y
authors.initials: LY
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: From Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
authors.forename: Lindsay G S
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Bengtson
authors.affiliation: From Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
authors.forename: Laura R
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Loehr
authors.affiliation: From Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
authors.forename: Sunil K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Agarwal
authors.affiliation: From Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (F.L.N.); Epidemiological Cardiology Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, and Department of Internal Medicine-Cardiology, Wake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC (E.Z.S.); Cardiac Arrhythmia Center, Cardiovascular Division, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota Medical School, Minneapolis (L.Y.C.); Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Life Sciences, Optum, Eden Prairie, MN (L.G.S.B.); Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (L.R.L.); Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai Heart Center, New York, NY (S.K.A.); and Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (A.A.).
authors.forename: Alvaro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Alonso
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D050197:Atherosclerosis / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: atrial fibrillation; cardiovascular diseases; epidemiology