title: Biophysical Mechanistic Modelling Quantifies the Effects of Plant Traits on Fire Severity: Species, Not Surface Fuel Loads, Determine Flame Dimensions in Eucalypt Forests.
abstract: The influence of plant traits on forest fire behaviour has evolutionary, ecological and management implications, but is poorly understood and frequently discounted. We use a process model to quantify that influence and provide validation in a diverse range of eucalypt forests burnt under varying conditions. Measured height of consumption was compared to heights predicted using a surface fuel fire behaviour model, then key aspects of our model were sequentially added to this with and without species-specific information. Our fully specified model had a mean absolute error 3.8 times smaller than the otherwise identical surface fuel model (p < 0.01), and correctly predicted the height of larger (≥1 m) flames 12 times more often (p < 0.001). We conclude that the primary endogenous drivers of fire severity are the species of plants present rather than the surface fuel load, and demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the model for quantifying this.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Zylstra
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Ross A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Bradstock
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bedward
authors.affiliation: School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, VIC, Australia.
authors.forename: Trent D
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Penman
authors.affiliation: Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Acton, ACT, Australia.
authors.forename: Michael D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Doherty
authors.affiliation: Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of NSW ADFA, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
authors.forename: Rodney O
authors.initials: RO
authors.lastname: Weber
authors.affiliation: Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Acton, ACT, Australia.
authors.forename: A Malcolm
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Gill
authors.affiliation: Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Acton, ACT, Australia.
authors.forename: Geoffrey J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Cary
mesh_terms: D055592:Biophysical Phenomena; D004190:Disasters; D004777:Environment; D005390:Fires; D065928:Forests; D006358:Hot Temperature; D008954:Models, Biological; D018515:Plant Leaves / Q000378:metabolism; D010944:Plants / Q000378:metabolism