title: Impact of weather factors on hand, foot and mouth disease, and its role in short-term incidence trend forecast in Huainan City, Anhui Province.
abstract: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the most common communicable diseases in China, and current climate change had been recognized as a significant contributor. Nevertheless, no reliable models have been put forward to predict the dynamics of HFMD cases based on short-term weather variations. The present study aimed to examine the association between weather factors and HFMD, and to explore the accuracy of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model with local weather conditions in forecasting HFMD. Weather and HFMD data from 2009 to 2014 in Huainan, China, were used. Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to examine the relationship between weather factors and HFMD. The forecasting model for HFMD was performed by using the SARIMA model. The results showed that temperature rise was significantly associated with an elevated risk of HFMD. Yet, no correlations between relative humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall, and HFMD were observed. SARIMA models with temperature variable fitted HFMD data better than the model without it (sR2increased, while the BIC decreased), and the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 0)52offered the best fit for HFMD data. In addition, compared with females and nursery children, males and scattered children may be more suitable for using SARIMA model to predict the number of HFMD cases and it has high precision. In conclusion, high temperature could increase the risk of contracting HFMD. SARIMA model with temperature variable can effectively improve its forecast accuracy, which can provide valuable information for the policy makers and public health to construct a best-fitting model and optimize HFMD prevention.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China.
authors.forename: Desheng
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: School of Nursing, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China.
authors.forename: Lulu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China.
authors.forename: Jian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Cheng
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory, the Affiliated Provincial Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China.
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health and Social Work & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Brisbane, QLD, 4509, Australia.
authors.forename: Zhiwei
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China.
authors.forename: Mingyu
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Xie
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China.
authors.forename: Huihui
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China.
authors.forename: Kesheng
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China.
authors.forename: Lingying
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wen
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China.
authors.forename: Xu
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China.
authors.forename: Heng
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China.
authors.forename: Shusi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230032, China. suhong5151@sina.com.
authors.forename: Hong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Su
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D002947:Cities / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006232:Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014887:Weather
keywords: China; Hand, foot, and mouth disease; SARIMA model; Weather factors