title: Using expert judgments to improve chronic wasting disease risk management in Canada.
abstract: ABSTARCT Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a neurodegenerative, protein misfolding disease affecting cervids in North America in epidemic proportions. While the existence of CWD has been known for more than 40 years, risk management efforts to date have not been able to curtail the spread of this condition. An expert elicitation exercise was carried out in May 2011 to obtain the views of international experts on both the etiology of CWD and possible CWD risk management strategies. This study presents the results of the following three components of the elicitation exercise: (1) expert views of the most likely scenarios for the evolution of the CWD among cervid populations in Canada, (2) ranking analyses of the importance of direct and indirect transmission routes, and (3) rating analyses of CWD control measures in farmed and wild cervids. The implications of these findings for the development of CWD risk management strategies are described in a Canadian context.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Mathematics , University of Texas Rio Grande Valley , Edinburg , Texas , USA.
authors.forename: Tamer
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Oraby
authors.affiliation: b McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Michael G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Tyshenko
authors.affiliation: b McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Margit
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Westphal
authors.affiliation: b McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Shalu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Darshan
authors.affiliation: b McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Maxine C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Croteau
authors.affiliation: c Aspinall and Associates , Tisbury , United Kingdom.|h Risk Sciences International , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Willy
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Aspinall
authors.affiliation: d School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute , University of Bristol , Bristol , United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Susie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Elsaadany
authors.affiliation: e Blood Safety Surveillance and Health Care Acquired Infections Division , Centre for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Public Health Agency of Canada , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Neil
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Cashman
authors.affiliation: b McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment, Institute of Population Health , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.|f Brain Research Centre , University of British Columbia , Vancouver , British Columbia , Canada.|g Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Krewski
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002170:Canada; D003670:Deer; D005104:Expert Testimony; D007600:Judgment; D012308:Risk Management / Q000379:methods*; D034081:Wasting Disease, Chronic / Q000517:prevention & control*