title: Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall due to Changes in Land Use Land Cover.
abstract: Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is traditionally linked with large-scale perturbations and circulations. However, the impacts of local changes in land use and land cover (LULC) on ISMR have yet to be explored. Here, we analyzed this topic using the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model with European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data for the years 2000-2010 as a boundary condition and with LULC data from 1987 and 2005. The differences in LULC between 1987 and 2005 showed deforestation with conversion of forest land to crop land, though the magnitude of such conversion is uncertain because of the coarse resolution of satellite images and use of differential sources and methods for data extraction. We performed a sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of large-scale deforestation in India on monsoon precipitation and found such impacts are similar to the observed changes in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude. We found that deforestation results in weakening of the ISMR because of the decrease in evapotranspiration and subsequent decrease in the recycled component of precipitation.
authors.affiliation: Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai- 400076, India.
authors.forename: Supantha
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Paul
authors.affiliation: Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai- 400076, India.|Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai- 400076, India.
authors.forename: Subimal
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ghosh
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth &Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USA.|School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, USA.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Oglesby
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai- 400076, India.
authors.forename: Amey
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pathak
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai- 400076, India.
authors.forename: Anita
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chandrasekharan
authors.affiliation: Interdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai- 400076, India.|Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai- 400076, India.
authors.forename: Raaj
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ramsankaran