title: Hip fracture incidence 2003-2013 and projected cases until 2050 in Austria: a population-based study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations.
  
  
  METHODS
  Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003-2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003-2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005-2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.
authors.affiliation: Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine, Bregenz, Austria.
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Concin
authors.affiliation: Ludwig Boltzmann Institute of Osteology at the Hanusch Hospital of the Vienna Health Insurance Fund (WGKK) and Trauma Center Meidling of the Austrian Workers' Compensation Board (AUVA), 1st Medical Department, Hanusch Hospital, Vienna, Austria. wolfgang.brozek@osteologie.at.
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Brozek
authors.affiliation: Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Feldkirch, Feldkirch, Austria.
authors.forename: Karl-Peter
authors.initials: KP
authors.lastname: Benedetto
authors.affiliation: Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Bregenz, Bregenz, Austria.|Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Hohenems, Hohenems, Austria.
authors.forename: Hartmut
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Häfele
authors.affiliation: Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Bregenz, Bregenz, Austria.
authors.forename: Joachim
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kopf
authors.affiliation: Department of Trauma Surgery, Landeskrankenhaus Bludenz, Bludenz, Austria.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Bärenzung
authors.affiliation: Department of Trauma Surgery, Krankenhaus Dornbirn, Dornbirn, Austria.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Schnetzer
authors.affiliation: Sanatorium Schruns, Schruns, Austria.
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Schenk
authors.affiliation: Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine, Bregenz, Austria.
authors.forename: Elmar
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Stimpfl
authors.affiliation: Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine, Bregenz, Austria.
authors.forename: Ursula
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Waheed-Hutter
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Statistics, Informatics and Health Economics, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria.
authors.forename: Hanno
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ulmer
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Gerontology, Robert-Bosch-Hospital, Stuttgart, Germany.|Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany.
authors.forename: Kilian
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Rapp
authors.affiliation: Ludwig Boltzmann Institute of Osteology at the Hanusch Hospital of the Vienna Health Insurance Fund (WGKK) and Trauma Center Meidling of the Austrian Workers' Compensation Board (AUVA), 1st Medical Department, Hanusch Hospital, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Elisabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Zwettler
authors.affiliation: Agency for Preventive and Social Medicine, Bregenz, Austria.|Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany.
authors.forename: Gabriele
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Nagel
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001317:Austria / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017678:Sex Distribution
keywords: Austria; Hip fracture incidence; Osteoporosis; Prognosis; Vorarlberg