title: A one-year effective reproduction number of the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreaks in the widespread West African countries and quantitative evaluation of air travel restriction measure.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the largest and longest Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in the history, and the virus has escaped across countries and continents via air travel in this outbreak.
  
  
  METHODS
  The interpolated data from WHO Ebola situation reports were used to estimate number of weekly infectious individuals and daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. A stochastic dynamic model was performed to estimate the risk of EVD importation into the top 20 final destination countries of air travelers departing from within the three epidemic countries, and the effectiveness of air travel restriction was subsequently evaluated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The daily Rtwas estimated at 0.72-1.32 in Guinea, 0.62-1.38 in Liberia and 0.81-1.38 in Sierra Leone. The peak of EVD importation probability was observed in early November 2014 and the restriction of air travel may mitigate the risk up to 67.7% (95% CI 66.6-68.7).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our results suggest that restriction of air travels is effective in reducing the risk of EVD importation but controlling of the virus at the original affected countries is vitally more important for preventing inter-terrestrial dissemination of EVD.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Sciences and Public Health, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Phutthamonthon 4 Road, Salaya, Phutthamonthon, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand; The Monitoring and Surveillance Center for Zoonotic Diseases in Wildlife and Exotic Animals, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Mahidol University, Phutthamonthon 4 Road, Salaya, Phutthamonthon, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand.
authors.forename: Anuwat
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wiratsudakul
authors.affiliation: ThEP Center, CHE, 328 Si Ayutthaya Road, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand.
authors.forename: Wannapong
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Triampo
authors.affiliation: Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand.
authors.forename: Yongjua
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Laosiritaworn
authors.affiliation: Biophysics Group, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; Centre of Excellence in Mathematics, CHE, 328, Si Ayutthaya Road, Bangkok 10400, Thailand. Electronic address: charin.mod@mahidol.edu.
authors.forename: Charin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Modchang
mesh_terms: D064870:Air Travel; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control; D058872:Epidemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D016701:Guinea / Q000453:epidemiology; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D007988:Liberia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012807:Sierra Leone / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Effectiveness; Epidemiology; Mathematical model; Transboundary