title: Increasing river floods: fiction or reality?
abstract: There has been a surprisingly large number of major floods in the last years around the world, which suggests that floods may have increased and will continue to increase in the next decades. However, the realism of such changes is still hotly discussed in the literature. This overview article examines whether floods have changed in the past and explores the driving processes of such changes in the atmosphere, the catchments and the river system based on examples from Europe. Methods are reviewed for assessing whether floods may increase in the future. Accounting for feedbacks within the human-water system is important when assessing flood changes over lead times of decades or centuries. It is argued that an integrated flood risk management approach is needed for dealing with future flood risk with a focus on reducing the vulnerability of the societal system.WIREs Water2015, 2:329-344. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1079 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Günter
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Blöschl
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Ladislav
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Gaál
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Julia
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hall
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kiss
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Jürgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Komma
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nester
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Juraj
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Parajka
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Rui A P
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Perdigão
authors.affiliation: Institute for Systematic Botany and Ecology Ulm University Ulm Germany.
authors.forename: Lenka
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Plavcová
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Magdalena
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rogger
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: José Luis
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Salinas
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Viglione