title: A Dynamic Model of Human and Livestock Tuberculosis Spread and Control in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China.
abstract: We establish a dynamical model for tuberculosis of humans and cows. For the model, we firstly give the basic reproduction number R 0. Furthermore, we discuss the dynamical behaviors of the model. By epidemiological investigation of tuberculosis among humans and livestock from 2007 to 2014 in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China, we estimate the parameters of the model and study the transmission trend of the disease in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China. The reproduction number in Urumqi for the model is estimated to be 0.1811 (95% confidence interval: 0.123-0.281). Finally, we perform some sensitivity analysis of several model parameters and give some useful comments on controlling the transmission of tuberculosis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China.
authors.forename: Shan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Urumqi Animal Disease Control and Diagnosis Center, Urumqi 830063, China.
authors.forename: Aiqiao
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Yuncheng University, Yuncheng 044000, China.
authors.forename: Xiaomei
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China.
authors.forename: Xueliang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China.
authors.forename: Kai
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-6224-8453
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001344:Autopsy; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D002417:Cattle; D002681:China; D003140:Communicable Disease Control; D003612:Dairying; D006801:Humans; D007371:Interferon-gamma / Q000737:chemistry; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011790:Quarantine; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014373:Tuberculin / Q000737:chemistry; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission* / Q000662:veterinary*
chemical_list: D014373:Tuberculin; D007371:Interferon-gamma