title: Multi-host model and threshold of intermediate host Oncomelania snail density for eliminating schistosomiasis transmission in China.
abstract: Schistosomiasis remains a serious public health issue in many tropical countries, with more than 700 million people at risk of infection. In China, a national integrated control strategy, aiming at blocking its transmission, has been carried out throughout endemic areas since 2005. A longitudinal study was conducted to determine the effects of different intervention measures on the transmission dynamics of S. japonicum in three study areas and the data were analyzed using a multi-host model. The multi-host model was also used to estimate the threshold of Oncomelania snail density for interrupting schistosomiasis transmission based on the longitudinal data as well as data from the national surveillance system for schistosomiasis. The data showed a continuous decline in the risk of human infection and the multi-host model fit the data well. The 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles, and the mean of estimated thresholds of Oncomelania snail density below which the schistosomiasis transmission cannot be sustained were 0.006, 0.009, 0.028 and 0.020 snails/0.11 m(2), respectively. The study results could help develop specific strategies of schistosomiasis control and elimination tailored to the local situation for each endemic area.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education (Fudan University), Shanghai 200032, China.|Tropical Disease Research Center, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Yi-Biao
authors.initials: YB
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, K1H 8M5, Canada.
authors.forename: Yue
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental and Global Health, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
authors.forename: Song
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Liang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education (Fudan University), Shanghai 200032, China.|Tropical Disease Research Center, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Xiu-Xia
authors.initials: XX
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: Guichi Anti-Schistosomiasis Station, Anhui 247100, China.
authors.forename: Geng-Xin
authors.initials: GX
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Junshan Anti-Schistosomiasis Station, Hunan 414000, China.
authors.forename: Zhong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Junshan Anti-Schistosomiasis Station, Hunan 414000, China.
authors.forename: Bin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.affiliation: Puge Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Sichuan 615300, China.
authors.forename: Wu-Li
authors.initials: WL
authors.lastname: Yihuo
authors.affiliation: Guichi Anti-Schistosomiasis Station, Anhui 247100, China.
authors.forename: Zong-Gui
authors.initials: ZG
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.|Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education (Fudan University), Shanghai 200032, China.|Tropical Disease Research Center, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
authors.forename: Qing-Wu
authors.initials: QW
authors.lastname: Jiang
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000517:prevention & control*; D004199:Disease Vectors; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D011156:Population Density; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012547:Schistosoma / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D012552:Schistosomiasis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D012908:Snails / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000469:parasitology*