title: A role for low-order system dynamics models in urban health policy making.
abstract: Cities are complex adaptive systems whose responses to policy initiatives emerge from feedback interactions between their parts. Urban policy makers must routinely deal with both detail and dynamic complexity, coupled with high levels of diversity, uncertainty and contingency. In such circumstances, it is difficult to generate reliable predictions of health-policy outcomes. In this paper we explore the potential for low-order system dynamics (LOSD) models to make a contribution towards meeting this challenge. By definition, LOSD models have few state variables (≤5), illustrate the non-linear effects caused by feedback and accumulation, and focus on endogenous dynamics generated within well-defined boundaries. We suggest that experience with LOSD models can help practitioners to develop an understanding of basic principles of system dynamics, giving them the ability to 'see with new eyes'. Because efforts to build a set of LOSD models can help a transdisciplinary group to develop a shared, coherent view of the problems that they seek to tackle, such models can also become the foundations of 'powerful ideas'. Powerful ideas are conceptual metaphors that provide the members of a policy-making group with the a priori shared context required for effective communication, the co-production of knowledge, and the collaborative development of effective public health policies.
authors.affiliation: Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia; International Institute of Global Health, United Nations University, UKM Medical Centre, Jalan Yaacob Latif, Bandar Tun Razak, 56000, Cheras, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Electronic address: barry.newell@anu.edu.au.
authors.forename: Barry
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Newell
authors.affiliation: International Institute of Global Health, United Nations University, UKM Medical Centre, Jalan Yaacob Latif, Bandar Tun Razak, 56000, Cheras, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Electronic address: siri@unu.edu.
authors.forename: José
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Siri
mesh_terms: D002947:Cities; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D011050:Policy Making; D013597:Systems Analysis; D014504:Urban Health
keywords: Conceptual metaphor; Low-order models; Powerful ideas; Transdisciplinary communication; Urban health policy; Wicked problems