title: A method to estimate the mean lifetime survival increase of statin therapy.
abstract: To propose a method for estimating the lifetime advantage of statins.
  
  
  
  Kaplan-Meier survival curves from published 4S and LIPID studies with 5.8- and 6.1-year follow-up were digitized. Gompertz distributions were fit up to the end of the trials, and then extrapolated out to the end of the patients' predicted lifetimes for each study.
  
  
  
  The method results in a 9.9 (95% CI: 8.7-11.9) and 2.8 (95% CI: 2.3-3.3) years' increases for the statin groups for 4S and LIPID studies, respectively.
  
  
  
  Previous analysis of the same data was limited by the trials' relatively short run time. As such, we propose a method for correctly estimating the true effect of statin therapy in terms of total lifetime extension.
authors.affiliation: Medical Data Research Center, Providence Health & Services, Portland, OR, USA.
authors.forename: Shu-Ching
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: Medical Data Research Center, Providence Health & Services, Portland, OR, USA.
authors.forename: Mansen
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Heart Clinic Cardiology, Providence Health & Services, Portland, OR, USA.
authors.forename: James G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Beckerman
authors.affiliation: Providence Spokane Cardiology, Providence Health & Services, Spokane, WA, USA.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sanz
authors.affiliation: Heart Clinic Cardiology, Providence Health & Services, Portland, OR, USA.
authors.forename: Tyler J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Gluckman
authors.affiliation: Medical Data Research Center, Providence Health & Services, Portland, OR, USA.
authors.forename: Gary L
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Grunkemeier
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D019161:Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008136:Longevity / Q000187:drug effects*; D017035:Pravastatin / Q000627:therapeutic use; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D019821:Simvastatin / Q000627:therapeutic use; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D019161:Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors; D019821:Simvastatin; D017035:Pravastatin
keywords: Gompertz distribution; statin usage; survival analysis