title: El Niño and coral larval dispersal across the eastern Pacific marine barrier.
abstract: More than 5,000 km separates the frequently disturbed coral reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) from western sources of population replenishment. It has been hypothesized that El Niño events facilitate eastward dispersal across this East Pacific Barrier (EPB). Here we present a biophysical coral larval dispersal model driven by 14.5 years of high-resolution surface ocean current data including the extreme 1997-1998 El Niño. We find no eastward cross-EPB connections over this period, which implies that ETP coral populations decimated by the 1998 bleaching event can only have recovered from eastern Pacific sources, in congruence with genetic data. Instead, rare connections between eastern and central Pacific reefs are simulated in a westward direction. Significant complexity and variability in the surface flows transporting larvae mean that generalized upper-ocean circulation patterns are poor descriptors of inter-regional connectivity, complicating the assessment of how climate change will impact coral gene flow Pacific wide.
authors.affiliation: School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wood
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, 208 Mueller Lab, University Park, State College, Pennsylvania 16802, USA.
authors.forename: I B
authors.initials: IB
authors.lastname: Baums
authors.affiliation: Department of Ocean Sciences, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida 33149-1098, USA.
authors.forename: C B
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Paris
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, Riverside, California 92521, USA.|School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ridgwell
authors.affiliation: Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory/NOAA, Seattle, Washington 98115, USA.
authors.forename: W S
authors.initials: WS
authors.lastname: Kessler
authors.affiliation: School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, UK.
authors.forename: E J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Hendy
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D037421:Anthozoa / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology*; D055592:Biophysical Phenomena; D057894:Coral Reefs; D059000:El Nino-Southern Oscillation; D007814:Larva / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D009791:Oceanography; D010140:Pacific Ocean