title: External Validation of the Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events Score to Predict Functional Outcome and Mortality in Patients Entered into the China National Stroke Registry.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  THRIVE (Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events) score is a tool used to predict the functional outcome and mortality in patients with ischemic stroke at 3 months. This project aims to explore its prognostic value at 3, 6, and 12 months in Chinese stroke patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  We applied the THRIVE score in 11,064 patients with acute ischemic stroke who were entered into the China National Stroke Registry. We applied the THRIVE score and examined its performance on mortality and poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale score between 3 and 6). Model discrimination was measured by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of poor outcome or mortality by using Pearson correlation coefficient.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among the 11,064 patients with ischemic stroke, the mortality rates at discharge, and at 3, 6, and 12 months were 3.6%, 7.9%, 10.5%, and 12.7%, respectively; the corresponding c-statistics were .83(95% confidence interval [CI], .80-.86), .79(95% CI, .77-.81), .80(95% CI, .78-.81), and .79(95% CI, .78-.80), respectively. For the poor functional outcome at discharge, and at 3, 6, and 12 months, the c-statistics were .74(95% CI, .73-.75), .76(95% CI, .75-.77), .76(95% CI, .75-.77), and .77(95% CI, .76-.78), respectively. The observed and expected probability of poor functional outcome and mortality based on the THRIVE score correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient ranged from .90 to .99) highly.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The THRIVE score is a reliable tool to predict the mortality and to fairly predict the functional outcome at discharge, and at 3, 6, and 12 months in Chinese patients after acute ischemic stroke.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Weiqi
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Gaifen
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: Jiming
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yilong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yanli
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yuesong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Pan
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Hao
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Liping
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Chunxue
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Illinois Neurological Institute Stroke Network, OSF Healthcare Systems, University of Illinois College of Medicine at Peoria, Peoria, Illinois.
authors.forename: David Zheng
authors.initials: DZ
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Xingquan
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases (NCRC-ND), Beijing, China; Center of Stroke, Beijing Institute for Brain Disorders, Beijing, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine for Cerebrovascular Disease, Beijing, China. Electronic address: yongjunwang1962@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Yongjun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019540:Area Under Curve; D002545:Brain Ischemia / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy; D002648:Child; D002681:China; D015897:Comorbidity; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010351:Patient Discharge; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D020127:Recovery of Function; D012042:Registries; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: China National Stroke Registry; THRIVE score; ischemic stroke; prognosis