title: On the capability to model the background and its uncertainty of CTBT-relevant radioxenon isotopes in Europe by using ensemble dispersion modeling.
abstract: Knowledge on the global radioxenon background is imperative for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification. In this paper, the capability to simulate the radioxenon background from regional sources is assessed at two International Monitoring System stations in Europe. An ensemble dispersion modeling approach is used to quantify uncertainty by making use of a subset of the Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Although the uncertainty quantification shows promising results, the ensemble shows a lack of spread that could be attributed to emission uncertainty from nuclear power plants, which is not taken into account. More knowledge on the emissions of nuclear power plants can help improve our understanding of the radioxenon background.
authors.affiliation: Belgian Nuclear Research Institute, Mol, Belgium; Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium. Electronic address: pieter.de.meutter@sckcen.be.
authors.forename: Pieter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: De Meutter
authors.affiliation: Belgian Nuclear Research Institute, Mol, Belgium.
authors.forename: Johan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Camps
authors.affiliation: Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Andy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Delcloo
authors.affiliation: Institute for Radioelements, Fleurus, Belgium.
authors.forename: Benoît
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Deconninck
authors.affiliation: Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium; Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
authors.forename: Piet
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Termonia
mesh_terms: D000396:Air Pollutants, Radioactive / Q000032:analysis*; D000398:Air Pollution, Radioactive / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005060:Europe; D008956:Models, Chemical; D055848:Nuclear Power Plants; D011834:Radiation Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D035501:Uncertainty; D014980:Xenon Radioisotopes / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000396:Air Pollutants, Radioactive; D014980:Xenon Radioisotopes
keywords: ATM; CTBT verification; Radioxenon monitoring; Uncertainty quantification