title: Expert elicitation on the uncertainties associated with chronic wasting disease.
abstract: A high degree of uncertainty exists for chronic wasting disease (CWD) transmission factors in farmed and wild cervids. Evaluating the factors is important as it helps to inform future risk management strategies. Expert opinion is often used to assist decision making in a number of health, science, and technology domains where data may be sparse or missing. Using the "Classical Model" of elicitation, a group of experts was asked to estimate the most likely values for several risk factors affecting CWD transmission. The formalized expert elicitation helped structure the issues and hence provide a rational basis for estimating some transmission risk factors for which evidence is lacking. Considered judgments regarding environmental transmission, latency of CWD transmission, management, and species barrier were provided by the experts. Uncertainties for many items were determined to be large, highlighting areas requiring more research. The elicited values may be used as surrogate values until research evidence becomes available.
authors.affiliation: a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Michael G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Tyshenko
authors.affiliation: b Department of Mathematics , University of Texas-Pan American , Edinburg , Texas , USA.
authors.forename: Tamer
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Oraby
authors.affiliation: a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Shalu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Darshan
authors.affiliation: a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Margit
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Westphal
authors.affiliation: a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Maxine C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Croteau
authors.affiliation: c Aspinall and Associates , Tisbury , United Kingdom.|d School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute , University of Bristol , Bristol , United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Willy
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Aspinall
authors.affiliation: e Professional Guidelines and Public Health Practice Division, Centre for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control , Public Health Agency of Canada , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Susie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Elsaadany
authors.affiliation: a McLaughlin Centre for Population Health Risk Assessment , Institute of Population Health, University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.|f Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine , University of Ottawa , Ottawa , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Krewski
authors.affiliation: g Brain Research Centre , University of British Columbia , Vancouver , British Columbia , Canada.
authors.forename: Neil
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Cashman
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003670:Deer; D012307:Risk Factors; D035501:Uncertainty; D034081:Wasting Disease, Chronic / Q000635:transmission*