title: Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems.
abstract: Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem-defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business-as-usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2-5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries' economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods.
authors.affiliation: NOAA Fisheries, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, 1845 Wasp Blvd., Bldg. 176, Honolulu, HI, 96818, USA.|School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1000 Pope Road, Marine Sciences Building, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA.
authors.forename: Phoebe A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Woodworth-Jefcoats
authors.affiliation: NOAA Fisheries, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, 1845 Wasp Blvd., Bldg. 176, Honolulu, HI, 96818, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Polovina
authors.affiliation: School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, 1000 Pope Road, Marine Sciences Building, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Drazen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005398:Fisheries; D005399:Fishes; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D015048:Zooplankton
keywords: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5; North Pacific; carrying capacity; climate change impacts; commercial fisheries; pelagic habitat; zooplankton