title: Evaluating and addressing the effects of regression to the mean phenomenon in estimating collision frequencies on urban high collision concentration locations.
abstract: Two different methods for addressing the regression to the mean phenomenon (RTM) were evaluated using empirical data: Data from 110 miles of freeway located in California were used to evaluate the performance of the EB and CRP methods in addressing RTM. CRP outperformed the EB method in estimating collision frequencies in selected high collision concentration locations (HCCLs). Findings indicate that the performance of the EB method can be markedly affected when SPF is biased, while the performance of CRP remains much less affected. The CRP method was more effective in addressing RTM.
authors: Engineering Division, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, 129188, United Arab Emirates. Electronic address: jinwoo.lee@nyu.edu.
authors: Jinwoo
authors: J
authors: Lee
authors: California Department of Transportation, Operations, Highway Operations, 111 Grand Ave, Oakland, CA 94623, United States; School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, 136-701, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: koohong_chung@dot.ca.gov.
authors: Koohong
authors: K
authors: Chung
authors: School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, Seoul, 136-701, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: s_kang@korea.ac.kr.
authors: Seungmo
authors: S
authors: Kang
mesh_terms: D000056:Accident Prevention / Q000379:methods*; D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002140:California; D004779:Environment Design / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012449:Safety / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Continuous risk profile; Empirical bayes method; Random noise; Safety performance function; The regression to the mean