title: Projecting the COPD population and costs in England and Scotland: 2011 to 2030.
abstract: We aimed to estimate the prevalence, healthcare costs and number of deaths among people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in England and Scotland 2011-2030. We adapted the Dutch COPD Model by using English and Scottish demographic, COPD incidence, COPD prevalence, smoking prevalence and mortality data to make projections. In England, the prevalence of COPD was estimated to be 1.79% (95% uncertainty interval 1.77-1.81) in 2011, increasing to 2.19% (1.85-2.33) by 2030. In Scotland, prevalence was 2.03% (1.96-2.10) in 2011 increasing to 2.20% (1.98-2.40) in 2030. These increases were driven by more women developing COPD. Annual direct healthcare costs of COPD in England were estimated to increase from £1.50 billon (1.18-2.50) in 2011 to £2.32 (1.85-3.08) billion in 2030. In Scotland, costs increased from £159 million (128-268) in 2011 to £207 (165-274) million in 2030. The deaths in England were estimated to increase from 99,200 (92,500-128,500) in 2011, to 129,400 (126,400-133,400) by 2030. In Scotland, in 2011 there were 9,700 (9,000-12,300) deaths and 13,900 (13,400-14,500) deaths in 2030. The number of people with COPD will increase substantially over the coming years in England and Scotland, particularly in females. Services need to adapt to this increasing demand.
authors: Allergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK.
authors: Susannah
authors: S
authors: McLean
authors: Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
authors: Martine
authors: M
authors: Hoogendoorn
authors: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors: Rudolf T
authors: RT
authors: Hoogenveen
authors: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
authors: Talitha L
authors: TL
authors: Feenstra
authors: Allergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK.
authors: Sarah
authors: S
authors: Wild
authors: Allergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK.
authors: Colin R
authors: CR
authors: Simpson
authors: Institute for Medical Technology Assessment, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
authors: Maureen Rutten-van
authors: MR
authors: Mölken
authors: Allergy and Respiratory Research Group, Centre for Population Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Doorway 1, Medical Quad, Teviot Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9AG, Scotland, UK.
authors: Aziz
authors: A
authors: Sheikh
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult