title: Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.
abstract: The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.
authors: Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.|ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
authors: Nerilie J
authors: NJ
authors: Abram
authors: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, New South Wales 2522, Australia.
authors: Helen V
authors: HV
authors: McGregor
authors: University of Arizona, Department of Geosciences, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA.|Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA.
authors: Jessica E
authors: JE
authors: Tierney
authors: Department of Geology and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA.
authors: Michael N
authors: MN
authors: Evans
authors: School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona 86011, USA.
authors: Nicholas P
authors: NP
authors: McKay
authors: School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona 86011, USA.
authors: Darrell S
authors: DS
authors: Kaufman
mesh_terms: D005843:Geography; D057232:Global Warming / Q000266:history*; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D049669:History, 16th Century; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D006802:Human Activities; D007221:Industry / Q000266:history*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D014329:Tropical Climate; D035501:Uncertainty