title: Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests.
abstract: Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities.
authors: CNRS, Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, UMR5321 CNRS-Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse III, 2 route du CNRS, FR-09200 Moulis, France.
authors: Romain
authors: R
authors: Bertrand
authors: LERFoB, INRA, AgroParisTech, FR-54000 Nancy, France.
authors: Gabriela
authors: G
authors: Riofrío-Dillon
authors: Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés, FRE3498 CNRS-UPJV, 1 Rue des Louvels, FR-80037 Amiens Cedex 1, France.
authors: Jonathan
authors: 0000-0003-0638-9582
authors: J
authors: Lenoir
authors: IGN, Laboratoire de l Inventaire Forestier, 11 rue de l'Ile de Corse, FR-54000 Nancy, France.
authors: Jacques
authors: J
authors: Drapier
authors: CNRS, Institut de Biologie Moléculaire des Plantes, Université de Strasbourg,, 12 rue du Général Zimmer, FR-67084 Strasbourg Cedex, France.
authors: Patrice
authors: P
authors: de Ruffray
authors: LERFoB, INRA, AgroParisTech, FR-54000 Nancy, France.
authors: Jean-Claude
authors: JC
authors: Gégout
authors: CNRS, Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, UMR5321 CNRS-Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse III, 2 route du CNRS, FR-09200 Moulis, France.
authors: Michel
authors: M
authors: Loreau
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D065928:Forests; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects; D018521:Plant Physiological Phenomena; D000071436:Thermotolerance / Q000502:physiology