title: Predicting the severity of liver cirrhosis through clinical parameters.
abstract: Severity of liver cirrhosis plays a vital role in determining an appropriate surgical strategy for HCC treatment. However, preoperative evaluation of the severity of cirrhosis has not been established in a surgical setting. This study aims to develop a model to predict the severity of cirrhosis.
  
  
  
  Overall, 604 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatitis B virus-related cirrhosis undergoing liver resection from Jan 2005 to Jun 2013 were randomly divided into either the model building group (n = 304) or the test group (n = 300). The severity of cirrhosis of the resected specimens was pathologically staged according to the Laennec scoring system, which sub-classified cirrhosis into either stage F4A, F4B, or F4C.
  
  
  
  A logistic regression analysis showed that varicosity, portal vein diameter, spleen thickness, and platelet count were significantly associated with the histologic sub-classification of cirrhosis in the model building group. Based on these four parameters, a scoring model for predicting the severity of cirrhosis was established. The model was then verified in the test group, the areas under the ROC (AUROC) for predicting mild (F4A), moderate (F4B), and severe cirrhosis (F4C) were 0.861 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.810-0.911), 0.860 (95% CI, 0.819-0.901), and 0.968 (95% CI, 0.951-0.985), respectively. The accuracy of this model in predicting mild, moderate, and severe cirrhosis is 79.3%, 81.0%, and 85.3%, respectively.
  
  
  
  By using this model, the severity of cirrhosis can be reliably staged preoperatively, which will provide more information on cirrhotic livers in surgical settings for the treatment of hepatitis B virus-related HCC.
authors: Department of Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
authors: Er-Lei
authors: EL
authors: Zhang
authors: Department of Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
authors: Zun-Yi
authors: ZY
authors: Zhang
authors: Department of Hepatic diseases, The Third people's Hospital of Yichang, Yichang City, China.
authors: Shu-Ping
authors: SP
authors: Wang
authors: Department of Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
authors: Zhen-Yu
authors: ZY
authors: Xiao
authors: Department of Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
authors: Jin
authors: J
authors: Gu
authors: Department of Gynecology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
authors: Min
authors: M
authors: Xiong
authors: Department of Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
authors: Xiao-Ping
authors: XP
authors: Chen
authors: Department of Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China. Electronic address: zyhuang@medmail.com.cn.
authors: Zhi-Yong
authors: ZY
authors: Huang
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000150:complications; D005260:Female; D019694:Hepatitis B, Chronic / Q000150:complications; D006801:Humans; D008099:Liver / Q000473:pathology*; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012720:Severity of Illness Index
keywords: Cirrhosis; Hepatitis B virus; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Histological staging; Portal hypertension