title: Meteorological Factors for Dengue Fever Control and Prevention in South China.
abstract: Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Guangzhou and has been circulating for decades, causing significant economic loss. DF prevention mainly relies on mosquito control and change in lifestyle. However, alert fatigue may partially limit the success of these countermeasures. This study investigated the delayed effect of meteorological factors, as well as the relationships between five climatic variables and the risk for DF by boosted regression trees (BRT) over the period of 2005-2011, to determine the best timing and strategy for adapting such preventive measures. The most important meteorological factor was daily average temperature. We used BRT to investigate the lagged relationship between dengue clinical burden and climatic variables, with the 58 and 62 day lag models attaining the largest area under the curve. The climatic factors presented similar patterns between these two lag models, which can be used as references for DF prevention in the early stage. Our results facilitate the development of the Mosquito Breeding Risk Index for early warning systems. The availability of meteorological data and modeling methods enables the extension of the application to other vector-borne diseases endemic in tropical and subtropical countries.
authors: Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. guhaogao@mail2.sysu.edu.cn.|Health Information Research Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. guhaogao@mail2.sysu.edu.cn.|Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. guhaogao@mail2.sysu.edu.cn.|Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. guhaogao@mail2.sysu.edu.cn.|Division of Public Health Laboratory Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China. guhaogao@mail2.sysu.edu.cn.
authors: Haogao
authors: H
authors: Gu
authors: Division of Public Health Laboratory Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China. yssun@hku.hk.|Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China. yssun@hku.hk.
authors: Ross Ka-Kit
authors: RK
authors: Leung
authors: Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. jingqinlong@126.com.|Health Information Research Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. jingqinlong@126.com.|Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. jingqinlong@126.com.|Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. jingqinlong@126.com.|Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China. jingqinlong@126.com.
authors: Qinlong
authors: Q
authors: Jing
authors: Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. zhangwj35@mail2.sysu.edu.cn.|Health Information Research Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. zhangwj35@mail2.sysu.edu.cn.|Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. zhangwj35@mail2.sysu.edu.cn.|Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. zhangwj35@mail2.sysu.edu.cn.
authors: Wangjian
authors: W
authors: Zhang
authors: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China. yangzc@gzcdc.org.cn.
authors: Zhicong
authors: Z
authors: Yang
authors: Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. lujiahai@mail.sysu.edu.cn.|Health Information Research Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. lujiahai@mail.sysu.edu.cn.|Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. lujiahai@mail.sysu.edu.cn.|Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. lujiahai@mail.sysu.edu.cn.
authors: Jiahai
authors: J
authors: Lu
authors: Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. haoyt@mail.sysu.edu.cn.|Health Information Research Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. haoyt@mail.sysu.edu.cn.|Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. haoyt@mail.sysu.edu.cn.|Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. haoyt@mail.sysu.edu.cn.
authors: Yuantao
authors: Y
authors: Hao
authors: Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. zhdingm@mail.sysu.edu.cn.|Health Information Research Center, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. zhdingm@mail.sysu.edu.cn.|Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. zhdingm@mail.sysu.edu.cn.|Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China. zhdingm@mail.sysu.edu.cn.
authors: Dingmei
authors: D
authors: Zhang
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D009033:Culicidae / Q000502:physiology* / Q000821:virology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009032:Mosquito Control; D000072138:Mosquito Vectors / Q000502:physiology* / Q000821:virology; D011156:Population Density; D013696:Temperature
keywords: boosted regression trees; dengue fever; meteorological effects