title: Historical Trends in the Hepatitis C Virus Epidemics in North America and Australia.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Bayesian evolutionary analysis (coalescent analysis) based on genetic sequences has been used to describe the origins and spread of rapidly mutating RNA viruses, such as influenza, Ebola, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV).
  
  
  METHODS
  Full-length subtype 1a and 3a sequences from early HCV infections from the International Collaborative of Incident HIV and Hepatitis C in Injecting Cohorts (InC3), as well as from public databases from a time window of 1977-2012, were used in a coalescent analysis with BEAST software to estimate the origin and progression of the HCV epidemics in Australia and North America. Convergent temporal trends were sought via independent epidemiological modeling.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The epidemic of subtype 3a had more recent origins (around 1950) than subtype 1a (around 1920) in both continents. In both modeling approaches and in both continents, the epidemics underwent exponential growth between 1955 and 1975, which then stabilized in the late 20th century.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Historical events that fuelled the emergence and spread of injecting drug use, such as the advent of intravenous medical therapies and devices, and growth in the heroin trade, as well as population mixing during armed conflicts, were likely drivers for the cross-continental spread of the HCV epidemics.
authors: School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine.
authors: Chaturaka
authors: C
authors: Rodrigo
authors: School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine.
authors: Auda A
authors: AA
authors: Eltahla
authors: School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine.
authors: Rowena A
authors: RA
authors: Bull
authors: The Kirby Institute, UNSW Australia, Sydney, New South Wales.
authors: Jason
authors: J
authors: Grebely
authors: The Kirby Institute, UNSW Australia, Sydney, New South Wales.
authors: Gregory J
authors: GJ
authors: Dore
authors: The Kirby Institute, UNSW Australia, Sydney, New South Wales.
authors: Tanya
authors: T
authors: Applegate
authors: University of New Mexico, Albuquerque.
authors: Kimberly
authors: K
authors: Page
authors: CRCHUM, Université de Montréal, Quebec, Canada.
authors: Julie
authors: J
authors: Bruneau
authors: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco.
authors: Meghan D
authors: MD
authors: Morris
authors: Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors: Andrea L
authors: AL
authors: Cox
authors: Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors: William
authors: W
authors: Osburn
authors: Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
authors: Arthur Y
authors: AY
authors: Kim
authors: Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Tropical Medicine and AIDS, Center for Infection and Immunity Amsterdam, Academic Medical Center, Meibergdreef.
authors: Janke
authors: J
authors: Schinkel
authors: CRCHUM, Université de Montréal, Quebec, Canada.
authors: Naglaa H
authors: NH
authors: Shoukry
authors: Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
authors: Georg M
authors: GM
authors: Lauer
authors: The Kirby Institute, UNSW Australia, Sydney, New South Wales.
authors: Lisa
authors: L
authors: Maher
authors: Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
authors: Margaret
authors: M
authors: Hellard
authors: Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Tropical Medicine and AIDS, Center for Infection and Immunity Amsterdam, Academic Medical Center, Meibergdreef.|GGD Public Health Service of Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors: Maria
authors: M
authors: Prins
authors: Center for Disease Analysis, Louisville, Colorado.
authors: Chris
authors: C
authors: Estes
authors: Center for Disease Analysis, Louisville, Colorado.
authors: Homie
authors: H
authors: Razavi
authors: School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine.|The Kirby Institute, UNSW Australia, Sydney, New South Wales.
authors: Andrew R
authors: AR
authors: Lloyd
authors: School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine.
authors: Fabio
authors: F
authors: Luciani
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D005075:Biological Evolution; D058872:Epidemics; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D016174:Hepacivirus / Q000235:genetics*; D006526:Hepatitis C / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D006801:Humans; D009656:North America / Q000453:epidemiology; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000235:genetics; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000821:virology
chemical_list: D012367:RNA, Viral
keywords: BEAST; HCV; PWID; coalescent; epidemiology; injecting drug use