title: Risk of ESRD in the United States.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Although incidence rates of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the United States are reported routinely by the US Renal Data System (USRDS), risks (probabilities) are not reported. Short- and long-term risk estimates need to be updated and expanded to minority populations, including Native Americans, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics.
  
  
  METHODS
  Risk estimation from surveillance data in large populations using life-table methods. A competing-risks framework was applied by constructing a hypothetical cohort followed from birth to death.
  
  
  METHODS
  Total US population. Incidence and mortality rates of ESRD were obtained from the USRDS; all-cause mortality rates were obtained from CDC WONDER.
  
  
  METHODS
  Age, sex, race/ethnicity, and year.
  
  
  RESULTS
  10-year to lifetime risks (cumulative incidence) of ESRD.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among males, lifetime risks of ESRD from birth using 2013 data were 3.1% (95% CI, 3.0%-3.1%) for non-Hispanic whites, 8.0% (95% CI, 7.9%-8.2%) for non-Hispanic blacks, 3.8% (95% CI, 3.4%-4.9%) for non-Hispanic Native Americans, 5.1% (95% CI, 4.8%-5.4%) for non-Hispanic Asians/Pacific Islanders, and 6.2% (95% CI, 6.1%-6.4%) for Hispanics. Among females, lifetime risks were 2.0% (95% CI, 2.0%-2.1%) for non-Hispanic whites, 6.8% (95% CI, 6.7%-6.9%) for non-Hispanic blacks, 3.6% (95% CI, 3.3%-4.2%) for non-Hispanic Native Americans, 3.8% (95% CI, 3.6%-4.0%) for non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islanders, and 4.3% (95% CI, 4.2%-4.5%) for Hispanics. Lifetime risk of ESRD from birth increased from 3.5% in 2000 to 4.0% in 2013 in males and decreased from 3.0% to 2.8% in females.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Standard life-time assumption of fixed age-specific rates over time and possible ESRD misclassification. To be useful in clinical practice, this application will require additional predictors (eg, comorbid conditions and chronic kidney disease stage).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  ESRD risk in the United States varies more than 2-fold among racial/ethnic groups for both sexes.
authors: Kidney Epidemiology and Cost Center, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
authors: Patrick
authors: P
authors: Albertus
authors: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Department of Urology, Medical School, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI. Electronic address: halm@umich.edu.
authors: Hal
authors: H
authors: Morgenstern
authors: Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Arbor Research Collaborative for Health, Ann Arbor, MI; Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
authors: Bruce
authors: B
authors: Robinson
authors: Kidney Epidemiology and Cost Center, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Department of Internal Medicine, Medical School, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
authors: Rajiv
authors: R
authors: Saran
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D044469:Racial Groups; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: End-stage renal disease (ESRD); US Renal Data System (USRDS); cumulative incidence; epidemiology; health inequity; incidence; lifetable; lifetime risk; mortality; nationwide surveillance; public health; racial disparity; risk; risk estimate