title: Projected loss of soil organic carbon in temperate agricultural soils in the 21(st) century: effects of climate change and carbon input trends.
abstract: Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO2 emissions and reduced agricultural productivity. Regional model-based SOC projections are needed to evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria in the 21(st) century. Soils from 51 study sites representing the most important soil classes of Central Europe were fractionated and derived SOC pools were used to initialize the RothC soil carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs were determined using the C allocation method. Model runs were performed for three different C input scenarios as a realistic range of projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial SOC decreases of 11-16% under an expected mean temperature increase of 3.3 °C assuming unchanged C inputs. For the scenario of 20% reduced C inputs, agricultural SOC stocks are projected to decline by 19-24%. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario of 20% increased C inputs led to SOC decreases of 3-8%. Projected SOC changes largely differed among investigated soil classes. Our results indicated that C inputs have to increase by 29% to maintain present SOC stocks in agricultural soils.
authors: Chair of Soil Science, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany.
authors: Martin
authors: M
authors: Wiesmeier
authors: Thuenen Institute for Agricultural Climate Research, Bundesallee 50, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany.
authors: Christopher
authors: C
authors: Poeplau
authors: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany.
authors: Carlos A
authors: CA
authors: Sierra
authors: Deutscher Wetterdienst, Abteilung Agrarmeteorologie, Niederlassung Weihenstephan, Alte Akademie 16, 85350 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany.
authors: Harald
authors: H
authors: Maier
authors: Deutscher Wetterdienst, Abteilung Agrarmeteorologie, ZAMF, Bundesallee 50, 38116 Braunschweig, Germany.
authors: Cathleen
authors: C
authors: Frühauf
authors: Chair for Strategic Landscape Planning and Management, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany.
authors: Rico
authors: R
authors: Hübner
authors: Chair of Soil Science, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany.
authors: Anna
authors: A
authors: Kühnel
authors: Bavarian Environment Agency, 95030 Hof, Germany.
authors: Peter
authors: P
authors: Spörlein
authors: Bavarian Environment Agency, 95030 Hof, Germany.
authors: Uwe
authors: U
authors: Geuß
authors: Bavarian Environment Agency, 95030 Hof, Germany.
authors: Edzard
authors: E
authors: Hangen
authors: Bavarian Environment Agency, 95030 Hof, Germany.
authors: Bernd
authors: B
authors: Schilling
authors: Chair of Soil Science, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany.
authors: Margit
authors: M
authors: von Lützow
authors: Chair of Soil Science, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, 85354 Freising, Germany.|Institute for Advanced Study, Technical University of Munich, 85748 Garching, Germany.
authors: Ingrid
authors: I
authors: Kögel-Knabner