title: Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe.
abstract: The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.
authors: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany.
authors: Claudia
authors: C
authors: Volosciuk
authors: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany.|Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Austria.
authors: Douglas
authors: D
authors: Maraun
authors: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany.|A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.|Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
authors: Vladimir A
authors: VA
authors: Semenov
authors: P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.
authors: Natalia
authors: N
authors: Tilinina
authors: P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia.|Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia.
authors: Sergey K
authors: SK
authors: Gulev
authors: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany.|Cluster of Excellence "The Future Ocean", Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany.
authors: Mojib
authors: M
authors: Latif