title: Near falls predict substantial falls in older adults: A prospective cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Little is known about the relationship between near falls and substantial falls in older adults. Clarifying this relationship would be helpful to assess fall risk in greater detail. The purpose of the present study was to clarify whether near falls predict future falls.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was designed to be a prospective cohort study. Participants were recruited from a community apartment for older adults. After a baseline physical assessment, participants were asked to record the incidence of near falls in a diary for 3 months. After the survey period, participants were followed for 6 months by telephone contact every 2 months. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to analyze the association between near falls and falls.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 60 participants were included in the analysis. During the initial 3 months, 23 participants (38%) experienced near falls. Eight participants (13%) experienced substantial falls during the following 6 months. Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for age, body mass index, sex and physical frailty showed that experience of near falls (hazards regression 6.0, 95% confidence intervals 1.1-31.7; P < 0.05) was significantly associated with incidence of future falls.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Experience of near falls among older adults is an independent predictor of substantial falls irrespective of the physical frailty status. Clinicians might need to focus on near falls to appropriately assess the fall risk in older adults. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 1477-1480.
authors: Department of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation, Hyogo University of Health Sciences, Hyogo, Japan.|Human Health Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Koutatsu
authors: K
authors: Nagai
authors: Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tokyo, Japan.
authors: Minoru
authors: M
authors: Yamada
authors: Suncity Palace Tsukaguchi, Itami, Japan.
authors: Miyuki
authors: M
authors: Komatsu
authors: Department of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation, Hyogo University of Health Sciences, Hyogo, Japan.
authors: Akira
authors: A
authors: Tamaki
authors: Hyogo College of Medicine, Sasayama Medical Center, Sasayama, Japan.
authors: Mizuki
authors: M
authors: Kanai
authors: Department of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation, Hyogo University of Health Sciences, Hyogo, Japan.
authors: Toshiaki
authors: T
authors: Miyamoto
authors: Department of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation, Hyogo University of Health Sciences, Hyogo, Japan.
authors: Rui
authors: R
authors: Tsukagoshi
authors: Human Health Sciences, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
authors: Tadao
authors: T
authors: Tsuboyama
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015992:Body Mass Index; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D016330:Frail Elderly / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014505:Urban Population
keywords: falls; frailty; older people