title: Inferring R0 in emerging epidemics-the effect of common population structure is small.
abstract: When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease, it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0 and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These parameters are estimated from the observed incidence of new cases and information about the infectious contact structures of the population in which the disease spreads. However, the relevant infectious contact structures for new, emerging infections are often unknown or hard to obtain. Here, we show that, for many common true underlying heterogeneous contact structures, the simplification to neglect such structures and instead assume that all contacts are made homogeneously in the whole population results in conservative estimates for R0 and the required control effort. This means that robust control policies can be planned during the early stages of an outbreak, using such conservative estimates of the required control effort.
authors: Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden ptrapman@math.su.se.
authors: Pieter
authors: 0000-0003-0569-1659
authors: P
authors: Trapman
authors: School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
authors: Frank
authors: F
authors: Ball
authors: LAGA, CNRS (UMR 7539), Université Paris 13, Sorbonne Paris Cité, France.
authors: Jean-Stéphane
authors: JS
authors: Dhersin
authors: Laboratoire Paul Painlevé, Université des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, Villeneuve-d'Ascq, France.
authors: Viet Chi
authors: VC
authors: Tran
authors: Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands Department of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
authors: Jacco
authors: J
authors: Wallinga
authors: Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors: Tom
authors: T
authors: Britton
mesh_terms: D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D007239:Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics
keywords: R0; emerging epidemics; infectious disease modelling; population structure; real-time spread