Incidence of snakebites from 2007 to 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Southeast Brazil, using a Bayesian time series model.
BACKGROUND
The monthly incidence of snakebites from 2007 to 2014 in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, was assessed.


METHODS
A statistical model based on the discrete double Poisson distribution was proposed, including pairs of sine and cosine functions of time to account for seasonality and autoregressive terms.


RESULTS
The analysis indicated a slight increase in the incidence of snakebites. The inclusion of two pairs of trigonometric functions seemed to be relevant in the model adjustment, given the seasonal pattern of the data.


CONCLUSIONS
The snakebites occurred predominantly during the warm season, from November to April.
Departamento de Puericultura e Pediatria, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.|Departamento de Medicina Social, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.
Davi Casale
DC
Aragon
Departamento de Medicina Social, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.|Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Maringá, Paraná, Brazil.
José André Mota de
JA
Queiroz
Departamento de Medicina Social, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.
Edson Zangiacomi
EZ
Martinez
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012621:Seasons; D012909:Snake Bites / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult