Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change.
New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity.
Institute of Biological Risk, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA. mark.urban@uconn.edu.
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Urban
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
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Bocedi
Redpath Museum, Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
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Hendry
Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Université Paris 06, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, CNRS, CESCO, UMR 7204, Paris, France. Conservation Biology, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany.
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Mihoub
Conservation Biology, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
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Pe'er
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany. Ecological Modelling, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Swedish Species Information Centre, Uppsala, Sweden.
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Singer
School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
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Bridle
NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
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Crozier
Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Evolution and Conservation, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
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De Meester
Bio-Protection Research Centre, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand.
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Godsoe
Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
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Gonzalez
Institute on the Environment; Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, USA.
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Hellmann
Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
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Holt
Ecological Modelling, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany. Institute for Environmental Systems Research, Department of Mathematics/Computer Science, University of Osnabrück, Osnabrück, Germany.
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Huth
Ecological Modelling, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany.
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Johst
Ecologie Systématique Evolution, University Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Orsay, France. DIVERSITAS, Paris, France.
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Krug
Ecologie Systématique Evolution, University Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Orsay, France. DIVERSITAS, Paris, France.
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Leadley
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
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Palmer
Centre d'Ecologie fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR 5175 CNRS-Université de Montpellier-EPHE, Montpellier Cedex, France.
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Pantel
Conservation Biology, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany.
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Schmitz
Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
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Zollner
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
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Travis
D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D005075:Biological Evolution; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D009033:Culicidae / Q000821:virology; D003715:Dengue / Q000635:transmission; D018534:Earth, Planet; D008954:Models, Biological; D008957:Models, Genetic; D011157:Population Dynamics; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis