Maintenance of demographic and hematological profiles in a long-lasting dengue fever outbreak: implications for management.
BACKGROUND
Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks present regionally specific epidemiological and clinical characteristics. In certain medium-sized cities (100 000-250 000 inhabitants) of São Paulo State, Brazil, and after reaching an incidence of 150 cases/100 000 inhabitants ("epidemiological threshold"), clinical diagnosis indicated dengue virus (DENV) infection. During this period, other seasonally infectious diseases with symptoms and physical signs mimicking DF can simultaneously occur, with the consequential overcrowding of health care facilities as the principal drawbacks. Confirmation of clinical diagnosis of DF with serological tests may help in avoiding faulty diagnosis in patients, who might later undergo dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and the dengue-shock syndrome (DSS). Furthermore, demographic and hematological profiles of patients are useful in detecting specific early characteristics associated to DF, DHF and DSS.


METHODS
From March to June, 2007, 456 patients from Marilia in northwest São Paulo State who had only been diagnosed for DF by clinical criteria, underwent serologic testing for non-structural 1 (NS1) DENV antigens. Individual results were used in comparative analysis according to demographic (gender, age) and hematological (leukocyte and platelet counts, percentage of atypical lymphocytes) profiles. Temporal patterns were evaluated by subdividing data according to time of initial attendance, using recorded variables as predictors of DENV infection in logistic regression models and ROC curves.


RESULTS
Serologic DENV detection was positive in 70.6 % of the patients. Lower leukocyte and platelet counts were the most important factors in predicting DENV infection (respective medians DENV + = 3 715 cells/ml and DENV- = 6 760 cells/ml, and DENV + = 134 896 cells/ml and DENV- = 223 872 cells/ml). Furthermore, all demographic and hematological profiles presented a conservative temporal pattern throughout this long-lasting outbreak.


CONCLUSIONS
As consistency throughout the epidemic facilitated defining the conservation pattern throughout the early stages, this was useful for improving management during the remaining period.
Center for Natural and Human Sciences, Universidade Federal do ABC, Campus São Bernardo do Campo, 09606-070, São Bernardo Do Campo, São Paulo, Brasil.|Secretaria do Estado da Saúde do Estado de São Paulo, Instituto Adolfo Lutz, Centro de Laboratório Regional VIII, Santo André, 09040-160, São Paulo, Brazil.
Andréia Moreira
AM
Dos Santos Carmo
Center for Natural and Human Sciences, Universidade Federal do ABC, Campus São Bernardo do Campo, 09606-070, São Bernardo Do Campo, São Paulo, Brasil.|Discipline of Parasitology, Marilia Medical School, Marilia, 17519-030, São Paulo, Brazil.
Rodrigo Buzinaro
RB
Suzuki
Center for Natural and Human Sciences, Universidade Federal do ABC, Campus São Bernardo do Campo, 09606-070, São Bernardo Do Campo, São Paulo, Brasil.
Michele Marcondes
MM
Riquena
Center for Natural and Human Sciences, Universidade Federal do ABC, Campus Santo André, Santo André, 09210-170, São Paulo, Brazil.
André
A
Eterovic
Center for Natural and Human Sciences, Universidade Federal do ABC, Campus São Bernardo do Campo, 09606-070, São Bernardo Do Campo, São Paulo, Brasil. marcia.speranca@ufabc.edu.br.
Márcia Aparecida
MA
Sperança
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003710:Demography; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000821:virology; D003716:Dengue Virus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005260:Female; D006403:Hematologic Tests; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D019595:Severe Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology; D055815:Young Adult
Clinical diagnosis; Demographic profile; Dengue fever; Dengue- outbreak pattern; Epidemiological threshold; Hematological profile