Development, Evaluation, and Comparison of Land Use Regression Modeling Methods to Estimate Residential Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide in a Cohort Study.
We used a network of 135 NO2passive diffusion tube sites to develop land use regression (LUR) models in a UK conurbation. Network sites were divided into four groups (32-35 sites per group) and models developed using combinations of 1-3 groups of "training" sites to evaluate how the number of training sites influenced model performance and residential NO2exposure estimates for a cohort of 13 679 participants. All models explained moderate to high variance in training and independent "hold-out" data (Training adj. R2: 62-89%; Hold-out R2: 44-85%). Average hold-out R2increased by 9.5%, while average training adj. R2decreased by 7.2% when the number of training groups was increased from 1 to 3. Exposure estimate precision improved with increasing number of training sites (median intralocation relative standard deviations of 19.2, 10.3, and 7.7% for 1-group, 2-group and 3-group models respectively). Independent 1-group models gave highly variable exposure estimates suggesting that variations in LUR sampling networks with relatively low numbers of sites (≤35) may substantially alter exposure estimates. Collectively, our analyses suggest that use of more than 60 training sites has quantifiable benefits in epidemiological application of LUR models.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde , James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow, G1 1XJ, U.K.
Jonathan
J
Gillespie
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde , James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow, G1 1XJ, U.K.
Iain J
IJ
Beverland
Ricardo Energy and Environment, 18 Blythswood Square, Glasgow G2 4BG, U.K.
Scott
S
Hamilton
University of Glasgow , Institute of Cardiovascular and Medical Sciences, British Heart Foundation Glasgow Cardiovascular Research Centre, 126 University Place, Glasgow G12 8TA.
Sandosh
S
Padmanabhan
D000393:Air Pollutants; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D009585:Nitrogen Dioxide; D012044:Regression Analysis
D000393:Air Pollutants; D009585:Nitrogen Dioxide