Validation of Individual-Based Markov-Like Stochastic Process Model of Insect Behavior and a "Virtual Farm" Concept for Enhancement of Site-Specific IPM.
The paper reports application of a Markov-like stochastic process agent-based model and a "virtual farm" concept for enhancement of site-specific Integrated Pest Management. Conceptually, the model represents a "bottom-up ethological" approach and emulates behavior of the "primary IPM actors"-large cohorts of individual insects-within seasonally changing mosaics of spatiotemporally complex faming landscape, under the challenge of the local IPM actions. Algorithms of the proprietary PESTonFARM model were adjusted to reflect behavior and ecology of R. cerasi. Model parametrization was based on compiled published information about R. cerasi and the results of auxiliary on-farm experiments. The experiments were conducted on sweet cherry farms located in Austria, Germany, and Belgium. For each farm, a customized model-module was prepared, reflecting its spatiotemporal features. Historical data about pest monitoring, IPM treatments and fruit infestation were used to specify the model assumptions and calibrate it further. Finally, for each of the farms, virtual IPM experiments were simulated and the model-generated results were compared with the results of the real experiments conducted on the same farms. Implications of the findings for broader applicability of the model and the "virtual farm" approach-were discussed.
inSilico-IPMKonstancin-Jeziorna, Poland; Department of Applied Entomology, Warsaw University of Life SciencesWarsaw, Poland.
Slawomir A
SA
Lux
Department of Applied Entomology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences Warsaw, Poland.
Andrzej
A
Wnuk
Julius Kühn-Institut, Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Institute for Plant Protection in Fruit Crops and Viticulture Dossenheim, Germany.
Heidrun
H
Vogt
Department of Zoology, pcfruit vzw Sint-Truiden, Belgium.
Tim
T
Belien
Division of Viticulture and Pomology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Austria.
Andreas
A
Spornberger
Department of Experimental Design and Bioinformatics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences Warsaw, Poland.
Marcin
M
Studnicki
European cherry fruit fly; Rhagoletis cerasi; agent-based models; site-specific IPM; virtual farm