Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil.
OBJECTIVE
To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029.


METHODS
An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R.


RESULTS
Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980's, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000's, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates.


CONCLUSIONS
Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates.
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Natal 59010-000, Brazil.
Angela Carolina Brandão
AC
de Souza Giusti
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Natal 59010-000, Brazil.
Pétala Tuani Candido
PT
de Oliveira Salvador
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Natal 59010-000, Brazil.
Juliano
J
Dos Santos
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Natal 59010-000, Brazil.
Karina Cardoso
KC
Meira
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Natal 59010-000, Brazil.
Amanda Rodrigues
AR
Camacho
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Natal 59010-000, Brazil.
Raphael Mendonça
RM
Guimarães
Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Graduate Program in Collective Health, Natal 59010-000, Brazil.
Dyego L B
DL
Souza
D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000401:mortality*; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D004943:Esophagogastric Junction; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D055815:Young Adult
Brazil; Gastric neoplasms; Mortality; Projections