Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.
This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.
Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
Barbara
B
Entwisle
Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, USA; Department of Sociology, University of Washington, USA.
Nathalie E
NE
Williams
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
Ashton M
AM
Verdery
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; East-West Center, Honolulu, HI, USA.
Ronald R
RR
Rindfuss
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
Stephen J
SJ
Walsh
Department of Geography, University of Iowa, USA.
George P
GP
Malanson
Department of Mathematics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
Peter J
PJ
Mucha
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
Brian G
BG
Frizzelle
Davis Library, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
Philip M
PM
McDaniel
Virginia Tech University, USA.
Xiaozheng
X
Yao
Dept. of Geography; Center for Geographic Information Science, Central Michigan University, USA.
Benjamin W
BW
Heumann
Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Thailand.
Pramote
P
Prasartkul
Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Thailand.
Yothin
Y
Sawangdee
Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Thailand.
Aree
A
Jampaklay
Agent-based model; Climate change; Migration; Thailand; Weather