Regional and gender differences in laryngeal cancer mortality: trends and predictions until 2030 in Brazil.
OBJECTIVE
Analysis of laryngeal cancer mortality trends in Brazil and its geographic regions for the period 1996-2010 and calculation of mortality predictions for the period 2011-2030.


METHODS
An epidemiologic, ecologic, demographic-based study, which utilized information from the Mortality Information System on all cancer-related deaths in Brazil, is presented here. Mortality trends were analyzed by Joinpoint regression, and Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions.


RESULTS
When comparing the last observed period and the last predicted period for men, an increase of 10,588 deaths is expected, representing an increase of 69%. For women, the expected increase in the number of deaths will be 2217, representing an increase of 104%. Laryngeal cancer mortality rates will increase in the North and Northeast regions for men and in the Northeast and Southeast regions for women.


CONCLUSIONS
Despite the current high mortality for laryngeal cancer, rates will continue to increase until 2030 in Brazil.
Public Health Department, Graduate Program in Public Health, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal-RN, Brazil.
Nayara Priscila
NP
Dantas de Oliveira
Public Health Department, Graduate Program in Public Health, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal-RN, Brazil.
Isabelle Ribeiro
IR
Barbosa
Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal-RN, Brazil.
Jéssica Nayara
JN
Vieria Paulino
Division of Population Research, Brazilian National Cancer Institute, Brazil.
Marianna
M
de Camargo Cancela
Public Health Department, Graduate Program in Public Health, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal-RN, Brazil. Electronic address: Dysouz@yahoo.com.br.
Dyego Leandro
DL
Bezerra de Souza
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007822:Laryngeal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors