A horizon scan of future threats and opportunities for pollinators and pollination.
Background. Pollinators, which provide the agriculturally and ecologically essential service of pollination, are under threat at a global scale. Habitat loss and homogenisation, pesticides, parasites and pathogens, invasive species, and climate change have been identified as past and current threats to pollinators. Actions to mitigate these threats, e.g., agri-environment schemes and pesticide-use moratoriums, exist, but have largely been applied post-hoc. However, future sustainability of pollinators and the service they provide requires anticipation of potential threats and opportunities before they occur, enabling timely implementation of policy and practice to prevent, rather than mitigate, further pollinator declines. Methods.Using a horizon scanning approach we identified issues that are likely to impact pollinators, either positively or negatively, over the coming three decades. Results.Our analysis highlights six high priority, and nine secondary issues. High priorities are: (1) corporate control of global agriculture, (2) novel systemic pesticides, (3) novel RNA viruses, (4) the development of new managed pollinators, (5) more frequent heatwaves and drought under climate change, and (6) the potential positive impact of reduced chemical use on pollinators in non-agricultural settings. Discussion. While current pollinator management approaches are largely driven by mitigating past impacts, we present opportunities for pre-emptive practice, legislation, and policy to sustainably manage pollinators for future generations.
School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London , Egham , United Kingdom.
Mark J F
MJ
Brown
Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge , Cambridge , United Kingdom.
Lynn V
LV
Dicks
Institute for Biology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle, Germany; iDiv, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany.
Robert J
RJ
Paxton
School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
Katherine C R
KC
Baldock
Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University , Sydney , Australia.
Andrew B
AB
Barron
European reference laboratory for honeybee health, Unit of honeybee pathology & Unit of coordination and support to surveillance, ANSES , Maisons-Alfort Cedex , France.
Marie-Pierre
MP
Chauzat
Departamento de Zootecnia, Centro de Ciências Agrárias, Universidade Federal do Ceará , Fortaleza Ceará , Brazil.
Breno M
BM
Freitas
School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex , Falmer , United Kingdom.
Dave
D
Goulson
The Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation , Portland , OR , United States of America.
Sarina
S
Jepsen
Berkeley Food Institute, Environmental Sciences Policy and Management, University of California Berkeley , Berkeley , CA , United States of America.
Claire
C
Kremen
Institute of Apicultural Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences , Beijing , China.
Jilian
J
Li
Institute of Bee Health, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Bern , Bern , Switzerland.
Peter
P
Neumann
The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited , Hamilton , New Zealand.
David E
DE
Pattemore
Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading , Reading , United Kingdom.
Simon G
SG
Potts
Department of Community Ecology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ , Halle , Germany.
Oliver
O
Schweiger
South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Claremont, South Africa; Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa.
Colleen L
CL
Seymour
Botany, School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, the University of Dublin , Dublin , Ireland.
Jane C
JC
Stout
Conservation; Ecosystem services; Horizon scanning; Pollination; Pollinator