Forecasting model ofCorylus,Alnus, andBetulapollen concentration levels using spatiotemporal correlation properties of pollen count.
The aim of the study was to create and evaluate models for predicting high levels of daily pollen concentration ofCorylus,Alnus, andBetulausing a spatiotemporal correlation of pollen count. For each taxon, a high pollen count level was established according to the first allergy symptoms during exposure. The dataset was divided into a training set and a test set, using a stratified random split. For each taxon and city, the model was built using a random forest method.Corylusmodels performed poorly. However, the study revealed the possibility of predicting with substantial accuracy the occurrence of days with high pollen concentrations ofAlnusandBetulausing past pollen count data from monitoring sites. These results can be used for building (1) simpler models, which require data only from aerobiological monitoring sites, and (2) combined meteorological and aerobiological models for predicting high levels of pollen concentration.
Institute of Geoecology and Geoinformation, Adam Mickiewicz University, Dzięgielowa 27, 61-680 Poznań, Poland.
Jakub
0000-0002-1057-3721
J
Nowosad
Institute of Geoecology and Geoinformation, Adam Mickiewicz University, Dzięgielowa 27, 61-680 Poznań, Poland.
Alfred
A
Stach
Department of Environmental Biology, University of Rzeszów, Zelwerowicza 4, 35-601 Rzeszów, Poland.
Idalia
I
Kasprzyk
Department of Botany, University of Life Sciences in Lublin, Akademicka 15, 20-950 Lublin, Poland.
Elżbieta
E
Weryszko-Chmielewska
Department of General Ecology, University of Life Sciences in Lublin, Leszczyńskiego 58, 20-950 Lublin, Poland.
Krystyna
K
Piotrowska-Weryszko
Department of Botany and Nature Conservation, University of Szczecin, Felczaka 3c, 71-412 Szczecin, Poland.
Małgorzata
M
Puc
Laboratory of Aeropalynology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Umultowska 89, 61-614 Poznań, Poland.
Łukasz
Ł
Grewling
Department of Plant Ecology, University of Gdańsk, Wita Stwosza 59, 80-308 Gdańsk, Poland.
Anna
A
Pędziszewska
Department of Plant Ecology, University of Gdańsk, Wita Stwosza 59, 80-308 Gdańsk, Poland.
Agnieszka
A
Uruska
Department of Clinical and Environmental Allergology, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Śniadeckich 10, 31-531 Kraków, Poland.
Dorota
D
Myszkowska
Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia, Będzińska 60, 41-200 Sosnowiec, Poland.
Kazimiera
K
Chłopek
Department of Immunology, Rheumatology and Allergy, Faculty of Medicine, Medical University, Pomorska 251, 92-215 Łódź, Poland.
Barbara
B
Majkowska-Wojciechowska
Aerobiology; Allergenic pollen; Betulaceae; Forecast; Random forest; Spatiotemporal models