title: A nomogram predicting contralateral central neck lymph node metastasis for papillary thyroid carcinoma.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Central compartment neck dissection (CCND) is recommended for patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, whether to perform contralateral CCND remains unclear. An individualized estimation of the contralateral central neck metastasis (CNM) risk would assist in the tailoring of treatment for PTC patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  Consecutive patients who underwent bilateral CCND for unilateral PTC between 2012 and 2014 in a tertiary center were identified. The clinicopathological data of 142 patients were analyzed retrospectively. The variables that had clinical significance in the final multivariate logistic regression model were built into a nomogram to assess the risk of metastasis of the contralateral central compartment. This model was internally validated using bootstrap resampling.
  
  
  RESULTS
  This nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination, with a concordance index of 0.834 (bootstrap corrected, 0.824). The variables with the greatest influence on the risk of contralateral CNM in this model included tumor size, the number of positive lymph nodes, and extranodal extension in the ipsilateral central neck.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This nomogram integrates three variables to estimate an individualized risk of contralateral CNM in unilateral PTC patients. This model may assist in individual decision-making regarding contralateral CCND and help avoid the over- and under-treatment of PTC. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:703-707. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
authors.affiliation: Department of Thyroid and Neck, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Henan Cancer Hospital, Zhengzhou, China.
authors.forename: Hu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hei
authors.affiliation: Department of Hematology, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Henan Cancer Hospital, Zhengzhou, China.
authors.forename: Yongping
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: Department of Thyroid and Neck, The Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Henan Cancer Hospital, Zhengzhou, China. qinjianwu1962@163.com.
authors.forename: Jianwu
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Qin
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002277:Carcinoma / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D002291:Carcinoma, Papillary; D002648:Child; D000066491:Clinical Decision-Making / Q000379:methods*; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008198:Lymph Nodes / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D008207:Lymphatic Metastasis; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009333:Neck; D037981:Neck Dissection; D049451:Nomograms; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D000077273:Thyroid Cancer, Papillary; D013964:Thyroid Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D013965:Thyroidectomy; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: contralateral central neck compartment; lymph node metastasis; nomogram; papillary thyroid carcinoma