title: Estimated HIV Incidence in the United States, 2003-2010.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate HIV incidence in the United States using a newly developed method.
  
  
  METHODS
  The analysis period (2002-2011) was broken down into 3-year periods with overlaps, and HIV incidence was estimated based on the relationship between number of new diagnoses and HIV incidence in each of these 3-year periods, by assuming that all HIV infections would eventually be diagnosed and within each 3-year period HIV incidence and case finding were stable.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The estimated HIV incidence in the United States decreased from 52,721 (range: 47,449-57,993) in 2003 to 39,651 (range: 35,686-43,617) in 2010, among males from 38,164 (range: 35,051-42,840) to 33,035 (range: 29,088-35,553), and among females from 13,557 (range: 12,133-14,830) to 6616 (range: 5825 to 7120).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Using a simple and novel method based on the number of new HIV diagnoses, we were able to estimate HIV incidence and report a declining trend in HIV incidence in the United States since 2003.
authors.affiliation: *HIV Epidemiology and Field Services Program, The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, Bureau of HIV Prevention and Control, New York City, NY; and †Screening and Test Evaluation Program (STEP), School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Qiang
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Xia
authors.forename: Armando
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Teixeira-Pinto
authors.forename: Lisa A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Forgione
authors.forename: Ellen W
authors.initials: EW
authors.lastname: Wiewel
authors.forename: Sarah L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Braunstein
authors.forename: Lucia V
authors.initials: LV
authors.lastname: Torian
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult