title: Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change.
abstract: Climate change could pose a major challenge to efforts towards strongly increase food production over the coming decades. However, model simulations of future climate-impacts on crop yields differ substantially in the magnitude and even direction of the projected change. Combining observations of current maximum-attainable yield with climate analogues, we provide a complementary method of assessing the effect of climate change on crop yields. Strong reductions in attainable yields of major cereal crops are found across a large fraction of current cropland by 2050. These areas are vulnerable to climate change and have greatly reduced opportunity for agricultural intensification. However, the total land area, including regions not currently used for crops, climatically suitable for high attainable yields of maize, wheat and rice is similar by 2050 to the present-day. Large shifts in land-use patterns and crop choice will likely be necessary to sustain production growth rates and keep pace with demand.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.|School of Geography, Earth &Environmental Science and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
authors.forename: T A M
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Pugh
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Müller
authors.affiliation: University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Elliott
authors.affiliation: University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA.|Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, USA.
authors.forename: D
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-6214-7241
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Deryng
authors.affiliation: Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.|Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University, 80333 Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Folberth
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund, Sweden.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Olin
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Feistmantelstrasse 4, 1180 Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Schmid
authors.affiliation: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arneth