title: Prognostic variables and scores identifying the last year of life in COPD: a systematic review protocol.
abstract: People living with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) suffer from significant morbidity, reduced quality of life and high mortality, and are likely to benefit from many aspects of a palliative care approach. Prognostic estimates are a meaningful part of decision-making and better evidence for such estimates would facilitate advance care planning. We aim to provide quality evidence on known prognostic variables and scores which predict a prognosis in COPD of <12 months for use in the community.
  
  
  
  We will conduct a systematic review of randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials, prospective and retrospective longitudinal cohort and case-control studies on prognostic variables, multivariate scores or models for COPD. The search will cover the period up to April 2016. Study selection will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with data extraction using fields from the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist for multivariate models, and study quality will be assessed using a modified version of the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool.
  
  
  
  The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and national and international conference presentations.
  
  
  
  CRD42016033866.
authors.affiliation: Department of Respiratory Epidemiology, Occupational Medicine and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: Laura-Jane E
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-3396-5541
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Imperial College School of Medicine, London, UK.
authors.forename: Ifrah
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Ali
authors.affiliation: Marie Curie Palliative Care Research Unit, University College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Stone
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
authors.forename: Liam
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Smeeth
authors.affiliation: Department of Respiratory Epidemiology, Occupational Medicine and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
authors.forename: Jennifer K
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-0149-4869
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Quint
mesh_terms: D032722:Advance Care Planning; D003657:Decision Making; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D010166:Palliative Care; D011379:Prognosis; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D011788:Quality of Life; D012107:Research Design; D000078202:Systematic Reviews as Topic