title: Impact of Irrigation Extension on Malaria Transmission in Simret, Tigray, Ethiopia.
abstract: Poor subsistence farmers who live in a semi-arid area of northern Ethiopia build irrigation systems to overcome water shortages. However, there is a high risk of malaria transmission when increased standing water provides more favorable habitats for mosquito breeding. This is a serious problem because there are many barriers to malaria control measures and health care systems in the area. Using a causal loop diagram and computer simulations, the author attempted to visually illustrate positive and negative feedbacks between mosquito and human populations in the context of Simret, which is a small village located in northern Ethiopia and is generally considered a malaria-free area. The simulation results show that the number of infectious mosquitos increases to 17,215 at its peak, accounting for 3.5% of potentially dangerous mosquitos. At the same time, the number of sick people increases to 574 at its peak, accounting for 15% of local population. The malaria outbreak is controlled largely because of a fixed number of vulnerable people or local population that acts as an intermediate host.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Poverty Alleviation and International Development, Yonsei University, Wonju 26493, Korea.
authors.forename: Bonhee
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Chung
mesh_terms: D057914:Agricultural Irrigation; D000818:Animals; D009033:Culicidae / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000469:parasitology; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D005002:Ethiopia / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D010961:Plasmodium / Q000302:isolation & purification; D012424:Rural Population
keywords: Ethiopia; Plasmodium falciparum; Plasmodium vivax; feedback; irrigation extension; malaria