title: Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread.
abstract: The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV). Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector mosquito distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding (1) the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, (2) the global potential for spread of ZIKV, and (3) drivers of ZIKV transmission. Our analysis of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally identified areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not for others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be better prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.
authors.affiliation: Ain Shams University, Faculty of Science, Cairo, Egypt.|University of Kansas, Biodiversity Institute, Lawrence, KS, USA.
authors.forename: Abdallah M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Samy
authors.affiliation: University of Bayreuth, Department of Biogeography, Bayreuth, Germany.
authors.forename: Stephanie M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.affiliation: Georg-August University, Division of Microbiology and Animal Hygiene, Goettingen, Germany.
authors.forename: Ahmed Abd El
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Wahed
authors.affiliation: Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
authors.forename: Kevin P
authors.initials: KP
authors.lastname: Cohoon
authors.affiliation: University of Kansas, Biodiversity Institute, Lawrence, KS, USA.
authors.forename: A Townsend
authors.initials: AT
authors.lastname: Peterson
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology*; D000818:Animals; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D000071244:Zika Virus; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission