title: Predicting the Population Health Impacts of Community Interventions: The Case of Alcohol Outlets and Binge Drinking.
abstract: A substitution estimator can be used to predict how shifts in population exposures might change health. We illustrated this method by estimating how an upper limit on alcohol outlet density might alter binge drinking in the New York Social Environment Study (n = 4000), and provided statistical code and sample data. The largest differences in binge drinking were for an upper limit of 70 outlets per square mile; there was a -0.7% difference in binge drinking prevalence for New York City overall (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.2%, -1.3%) and a -2.4% difference in binge drinking prevalence for the subset of communities the intervention modified (95% CI = -0.5%, -4.0%). A substitution estimator is a flexible tool for estimating population intervention parameters and improving the translation of public health research results to practitioners.
authors.affiliation: Jennifer Ahern and K. Ellicott Colson are with the Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Claire Margerison-Zilko is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, East Lansing. Alan Hubbard is with the Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Sandro Galea is with the School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA.
authors.forename: Jennifer
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ahern
authors.affiliation: Jennifer Ahern and K. Ellicott Colson are with the Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Claire Margerison-Zilko is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, East Lansing. Alan Hubbard is with the Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Sandro Galea is with the School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA.
authors.forename: K Ellicott
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Colson
authors.affiliation: Jennifer Ahern and K. Ellicott Colson are with the Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Claire Margerison-Zilko is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, East Lansing. Alan Hubbard is with the Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Sandro Galea is with the School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA.
authors.forename: Claire
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Margerson-Zilko
authors.affiliation: Jennifer Ahern and K. Ellicott Colson are with the Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Claire Margerison-Zilko is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, East Lansing. Alan Hubbard is with the Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Sandro Galea is with the School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA.
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hubbard
authors.affiliation: Jennifer Ahern and K. Ellicott Colson are with the Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Claire Margerison-Zilko is with the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University, East Lansing. Alan Hubbard is with the Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley. Sandro Galea is with the School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA.
authors.forename: Sandro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Galea
mesh_terms: D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology; D063425:Binge Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003132:Commerce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009519:New York City / Q000453:epidemiology; D011634:Public Health; D012111:Residence Characteristics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012931:Social Environment