title: Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals.
abstract: The Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the near-term emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model framework. To achieve the 2 °C goal, a large greenhouse gas emissions reduction is required, either in the early or latter half of this century. In the mid-term (from 2030 to 2050), it may be necessary to consider rapid changes to the existing energy or socioeconomic systems, while long-term measures (after 2050) will rely on the substantial use of biomass combined with carbon capture and storage technology or afforestation, which will eventually realize so-called negative CO2 emissions. With respect to the policy context, two suggestions are provided here. The first is the review and revision of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2020, with an additional reduction target to the current NDCs being one workable alternative. The second suggestion is a concrete and numerical mid-term emissions reduction target, for example to be met by 2040 or 2050, which could also help to achieve the long-term climate goal.
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan.|International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz-1, Laxenburg, 2361 Austria.
authors.forename: Shinichiro
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7897-1796
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fujimori
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan.
authors.forename: Xuanming
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Su
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan.
authors.forename: Jing-Yu
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan.|International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz-1, Laxenburg, 2361 Austria.
authors.forename: Tomoko
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hasegawa
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan.
authors.forename: Kiyoshi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Takahashi
authors.affiliation: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506 Japan.
authors.forename: Toshihiko
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Masui
authors.affiliation: Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Inc., 2-3 Kanda-Nishikicho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8443 Japan.
authors.forename: Maho
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Takimi
keywords: AIM; Climate change mitigation; Integrated assessment model; Land use