title: Estimating long-term crude probability of death among young breast cancer patients: a Bayesian approach.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Bayesian survival analysis was applied to assess the long-term survival and probability of death due to breast cancer (BC) in Girona, the Spanish region with the highest BC incidence.
  
  
  METHODS
  A Bayesian autoregressive model was implemented to compare survival indicators between the periods 1985-1994 and 1995-2004. We assessed the long-term excess hazard of death, relative survival (RS), and crude probability of death due to BC (PBC) up to 20 years after BC diagnosis, reporting the 95% credible intervals (CI) of these indicators.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Patients diagnosed from 1995 onwards showed lower 20-year excess hazards of death than those diagnosed earlier (RS during 1985-1994: local stage: 76.6%; regional stage: 44.9%; RS during 1995-2004: local stage: 85.2%; regional stage: 57.0%). The PBC after 20 years of BC diagnosis for patients diagnosed in 1995 and after might reach 14.4% (95% CI: 8.9%-21.2%) in local stage and 41.0% (95% CI: 36.1%-47.1%) in regional stage.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The method presented could be useful when dealing with population-based survival data from a small region. Better survival prospects were found in patients diagnosed after 1994, although we detected a non-decreasing long-term excess hazard of death, suggesting that these patients have higher mortality than the general population even 10 years after the diagnosis of BC.
authors.affiliation:  Catalan Institute of Oncology, Plan for Oncology of the Catalonian Government, IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat - Spain.| Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona - Spain.
authors.forename: Ramon
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Clèries
authors.affiliation:  Girona Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBGI), Girona - Spain.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Buxó
authors.affiliation:  Department of Public Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta - Canada.
authors.forename: Yutaka
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yasui
authors.affiliation:  Girona Cancer Registry and Epidemiology Unit, Plan for Oncology of the Catalonian Government, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Descriptive Epidemiology, Genetics and Cancer Prevention Group, Girona Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBGI), Girona - Spain.
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Marcos-Gragera
authors.affiliation:  MC MUTUAL, MC-IT Department and Consulting Area, Barcelona - Spain.
authors.forename: José M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Martínez
authors.affiliation:  Tarragona Cancer Registry, Foundation Society for Cancer Research and Prevention, Reus - Spain.
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ameijide
authors.affiliation:  Tarragona Cancer Registry, Foundation Society for Cancer Research and Prevention, Reus - Spain.
authors.forename: Jaume
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Galceran
authors.affiliation:  Catalan Institute of Oncology, Plan for Oncology of the Catalonian Government, IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat - Spain.| Department of Clinical Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona - Spain.
authors.forename: Josep M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Borràs
authors.affiliation:  Girona Cancer Registry and Epidemiology Unit, Plan for Oncology of the Catalonian Government, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Descriptive Epidemiology, Genetics and Cancer Prevention Group, Girona Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBGI), Girona - Spain.| Department of Medical Oncology, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Doctor Josep Trueta University Hospital, Girona - Spain.
authors.forename: Àngel
authors.initials: À
authors.lastname: Izquierdo
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000266:history / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011336:Probability; D012042:Registries; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology