title: The End of Radiology? Three Threats to the Future Practice of Radiology.
abstract: Radiology faces at least three major, potentially fatal, threats. First, as care moves out of the hospital, there will be a decrease in demand for imaging. More care in patients' homes and in other nonhospital settings means fewer medical tests, including imaging. Second, payment reform and, in particular, bundled payments and capitation mean that imaging will become a cost rather than a profit center. These shifts in provider payment will decrease the demand for imaging and disrupt the practice of radiology. Potentially, the ultimate threat to radiology is machine learning. Machine learning will become a powerful force in radiology in the next 5 to 10 years and could end radiology as a thriving specialty.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, The Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Electronic address: kchock@upenn.edu.
authors.forename: Katie
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Chockley
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy, The Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Ezekiel
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Emanuel
mesh_terms: D003952:Diagnostic Imaging / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000639:trends*; D018166:Health Care Reform / Q000639:trends*; D006297:Health Services Accessibility / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D010342:Patient Acceptance of Health Care; D000072177:Radiologists / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D012051:Reimbursement Mechanisms / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D014481:United States
keywords: Machine learning; future of health care; payment reform; technology