title: Current and projected burden of heart failure in the Australian adult population: a substantive but still ill-defined major health issue.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Comprehensive epidemiological data to describe the burden of heart failure (HF) in Australia remain lacking despite its importance as a major health issue. Herewith, we estimate the current and future burden of HF in Australia using best available data.
  
  
  METHODS
  Australian-specific and the most congruent international epidemiological and health utilisation data were applied to the Australian population (adults aged ≥ 45 years, 8.9 of 22.7 million total population in 2014) on an age and sex-specific basis. We estimated the current incident and prevalent cases of clinically overt/symptomatic HF (predominately those with reduced ejection fraction), hospital activity (diagnosis of HF as a primary or secondary reason for admission) and health care costs in 2014 and future prevalence and burden of HF projected to 2030.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We estimated that over 61,000 (6.9 per 1000 person-years) adult Australians aged ≥ 45 years (58 % women) are diagnosed with HF with clinically overt signs and symptoms every year. On a conservative basis, 480,000 (6.3 %, 95 % CI 2.6 to 10.0 %) Australians (66 % men) are now affected by the syndrome with > 150,000 hospitalisations in excess of 1 million days in hospital per annum. The annual cost of managing HF in the community is approximately $900 million and nearly $2.7 billion ($1.5 versus $1.2 billion, men versus women) when considering the additional cost of in-patient care. We predict that the prevalence and future burden of HF will continue to increase over the next 10-15 years to nearly 750,000 people with an estimated annual health care cost of $3.8 billion.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Australia is not immune to the growing magnitude and implications of a sustained epidemic of HF in an ageing population. However, its public health and economic burden will remain ill-defined until more definitive Australian-specific data are generated.
authors.affiliation: Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Level 5, 215 Spring Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia.
authors.forename: Yih-Kai
authors.initials: YK
authors.lastname: Chan
authors.affiliation: Baker IDI Central Australia, Alice Springs, Northern Territory, 0870, Australia.
authors.forename: Camilla
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Tuttle
authors.affiliation: Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Level 5, 215 Spring Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia.
authors.forename: Jocasta
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ball
authors.affiliation: Western Australian Centre for Rural Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia.
authors.forename: Tiew-Hwa Katherine
authors.initials: TK
authors.lastname: Teng
authors.affiliation: Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Level 5, 215 Spring Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia.
authors.forename: Yasmin
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ahamed
authors.affiliation: Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Level 5, 215 Spring Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia.
authors.forename: Melinda Jane
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Carrington
authors.affiliation: Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Level 5, 215 Spring Street, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia. simon.stewart@acu.edu.au.
authors.forename: Simon
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9032-8998
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Stewart
keywords: Economic burden; Heart failure; Incidence; Prevalence