title: Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Since there is some evidence that the density and distribution of tobacco retail outlets may influence smoking behaviours, we aimed to estimate the impacts of 4 tobacco outlet reduction interventions in a country with a smoke-free goal: New Zealand (NZ).
  
  
  METHODS
  A multistate life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases, using national data by sex, age and ethnicity, was used to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and net costs over the remainder of the 2011 NZ population's lifetime. The outlet reduction interventions assumed that increased travel costs can be operationalised as equivalent to price increases in tobacco.
  
  
  RESULTS
  All 4 modelled interventions led to reductions of >89% of current tobacco outlets after the 10-year phase-in process. The most effective intervention limited sales to half of liquor stores (and nowhere else) at 129 000 QALYs gained over the lifetime of the population (95% UI: 74 100 to 212 000, undiscounted). The per capita QALY gains were up to 5 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori. All interventions were cost-saving to the health system, with the largest saving for the liquor store only intervention: US$1.23 billion (95% UI: $0.70 to $2.00 billion, undiscounted).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These tobacco outlet reductions reduced smoking prevalence, achieved health gains and saved health system costs. Effects would be larger if outlet reductions have additional spill-over effects (eg, smoking denormalisation). While these interventions were not as effective as tobacco tax increases (using the same model), these and other strategies could be combined to maximise health gain and to maximise cost-savings to the health system.
authors.affiliation: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness (BODE) Programme, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand Department of Geography, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA.
authors.forename: Amber L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Pearson
authors.affiliation: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness (BODE) Programme, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Christine L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Cleghorn
authors.affiliation: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness (BODE) Programme, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Frederieke S
authors.initials: FS
authors.lastname: van der Deen
authors.affiliation: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness (BODE) Programme, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand Nuffield Department of Population Health, British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches to NCD Prevention, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Linda J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Cobiac
authors.affiliation: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness (BODE) Programme, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Giorgi
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Kvizhinadze
authors.affiliation: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness (BODE) Programme, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Nhung
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Nghiem
authors.affiliation: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness (BODE) Programme, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Tony
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Blakely
authors.affiliation: Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness (BODE) Programme, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Wilson
keywords: Denormalization; Disparities; End game; Environment; Price