title: Loss of connectivity among island-dwelling Peary caribou following sea ice decline.
abstract: Global warming threatens to reduce population connectivity for terrestrial wildlife through significant and rapid changes to sea ice. Using genetic fingerprinting, we contrasted extant connectivity in island-dwelling Peary caribou in northern Canada with continental-migratory caribou. We next examined if sea-ice contractions in the last decades modulated population connectivity and explored the possible impact of future climate change on long-term connectivity among island caribou. We found a strong correlation between genetic and geodesic distances for both continental and Peary caribou, even after accounting for the possible effect of sea surface. Sea ice has thus been an effective corridor for Peary caribou, promoting inter-island connectivity and population mixing. Using a time series of remote sensing sea-ice data, we show that landscape resistance in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago has increased by approximately 15% since 1979 and may further increase by 20-77% by 2086 under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). Under the persistent increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, reduced connectivity may isolate island-dwelling caribou with potentially significant consequences for population viability.
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Life Sciences Graduate Program, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada K9 L 0G2 Canada Research Chair in Polar and Boreal Ecology and Centre d'Études Nordiques, Department of Biology, University of Moncton, Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada E1A 3E9 debbie.jenkins@sympatico.ca.
authors.forename: Deborah A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Jenkins
authors.affiliation: Canada Research Chair in Polar and Boreal Ecology and Centre d'Études Nordiques, Department of Biology, University of Moncton, Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada E1A 3E9.
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Lecomte
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada K9 L 0G2.
authors.forename: James A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Schaefer
authors.affiliation: Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Steffen M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Olsen
authors.affiliation: UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC-OASU-Université de Bordeaux, Allée Georoy St Hilaire, 33615 Pessac, France.
authors.forename: Didier
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Swingedouw
authors.affiliation: Département de Biologie and Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, Québec, Canada G1V0A6.
authors.forename: Steeve D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Côté
authors.affiliation: Landscape Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Loïc
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-2289-8259
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Pellissier
authors.affiliation: LECA - Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine - UMR CNRS 5553, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, 73376 Le Bourget-du-Lac, France glenn.yannic@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Glenn
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-6477-2312
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Yannic
mesh_terms: D000413:Alaska; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D001110:Arctic Regions; D002170:Canada; D057231:Climate Change; D046448:Ice Cover; D062312:Islands; D018895:Microsatellite Repeats; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012053:Reindeer / Q000235:genetics*
keywords: Canadian Arctic Archipelago; caribou; connectivity; gene flow; isolation by distance; landscape genetics