title: Simulation of Trauma Incidents : Modelling the Evolution of Patients and Resources.
abstract: Mathematical modeling and simulation with medical applications has gained much interest in the last few years, mainly due to the widespread availability of low-cost technology and computational power. This paper presents an integrated platform for the in-silico simulation of trauma incidents, based on a suite of interacting mathematical models. The models cover the generation of a scenario for an incident, a model of physiological evolution of the affected individuals, including the possible effect of the treatment, and a model of evolution in time of the required medical resources. The problem of optimal resource allocation is also investigated. Model parameters have been identified according to the expertise of medical doctors and by reviewing some related literature. The models have been implemented and exposed as web services, while some software clients have been built for the purpose of testing. Due to its extendability, our integrated platform highlights the potential of model-based simulation in different health-related fields, such as emergency medicine and personal health systems. Modifications of the models are already being used in the context of two funded projects, aiming at evaluating the response of health systems to major incidents with and without model-based decision support.
authors.affiliation: CNR-IASI Biomathematics Laboratory (BioMatLab), Largo A. Gemelli 8, 00168, Rome, Italy. alessandro.borri@biomatematica.it.
authors.forename: Alessandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Borri
authors.affiliation: CNR-IASI Biomathematics Laboratory (BioMatLab), Largo A. Gemelli 8, 00168, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Simona
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Panunzi
authors.affiliation: Catholic University of the Sacred Heart (UCSC), Largo A. Gemelli 8, 00168, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Rachele
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Brancaleoni
authors.affiliation: Catholic University of the Sacred Heart (UCSC), Largo A. Gemelli 8, 00168, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Daniele
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gui
authors.affiliation: Catholic University of the Sacred Heart (UCSC), Largo A. Gemelli 8, 00168, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Sabina
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Magalini
authors.affiliation: CNR-IASI Biomathematics Laboratory (BioMatLab), Largo A. Gemelli 8, 00168, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Claudio R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Gaz
authors.affiliation: CNR-IASI Biomathematics Laboratory (BioMatLab), Largo A. Gemelli 8, 00168, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Andrea De
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gaetano
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D004189:Disaster Planning / Q000379:methods*; D015276:Health Care Rationing / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000628:therapy*
keywords: Mathematical modeling; Personalized medicine; Simulation; Trauma incidents; Web services