Comparison of Model Predictions and Laboratory Observations of Transgene Frequencies in Continuously-Breeding Mosquito Populations.
The persistence of transgenes in the environment is a consideration in risk assessments of transgenic organisms. Combining mathematical models that predict the frequency of transgenes and experimental demonstrations can validate the model predictions, or can detect significant biological deviations that were neither apparent nor included as model parameters. In order to assess the correlation between predictions and observations, models were constructed to estimate the frequency of a transgene causing male sexual sterility in simulated populations of a malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae that were seeded with transgenic females at various proportions. Concurrently, overlapping-generation laboratory populations similar to those being modeled were initialized with various starting transgene proportions, and the subsequent proportions of transgenic individuals in populations were determined weekly until the transgene disappeared. The specific transgene being tested contained a homing endonuclease gene expressed in testes, I-PpoI, that cleaves the ribosomal DNA and results in complete male sexual sterility with no effect on female fertility. The transgene was observed to disappear more rapidly than the model predicted in all cases. The period before ovipositions that contained no transgenic progeny ranged from as little as three weeks after cage initiation to as long as 11 weeks.
Department of Experimental Medicine, University of Perugia, Via Gambuli, Building D, 3rd floor, Perugia 06132, Italy. scarablaura@yahoo.it.
Laura
L
Valerio
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, The Tinbergen Building, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. ace.north@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
Ace
A
North
Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, 14 Princes Gardens, London SW7 2NA, UK. t.collins@imperial.ac.uk.
C Matilda
CM
Collins
Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK. j.mumford@imperial.ac.uk.
John D
JD
Mumford
Department of Experimental Medicine, University of Perugia, Via Gambuli, Building D, 3rd floor, Perugia 06132, Italy. lucafacchinelli@yahoo.it.
Luca
L
Facchinelli
Department of Experimental Medicine, University of Perugia, Via Gambuli, Building D, 3rd floor, Perugia 06132, Italy. roberta.spaccapelo@unipg.it.
Roberta
R
Spaccapelo
Department of Experimental Medicine, University of Perugia, Via Gambuli, Building D, 3rd floor, Perugia 06132, Italy. mqbenedict@yahoo.com.
Mark Q
MQ
Benedict
GMO; genetic control; malaria; persistence; risk assessment; sterile insect technique; transgenic mosquito
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