The GMENAC report and the PA profession.
The 1980 report of the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) predicted a surplus of physicians by 1990 and 2000. The report appeared to have a depressing effect on the growth of the PA profession in the early 1980s; in the 9 years following its release, no new PA programs were started and a number of existing programs closed. The GMENAC forecast proved to be inaccurate and the PA profession saw significant program growth in the 1990s and beyond. A lesson of GMENAC is that accurately predicting health workforce supply and demand is difficult.
James F. Cawley is professor of prevention and community health and professor of physician assistant studies at the George Washington University in Washington, D.C. The author has disclosed no potential conflicts of interest, financial or otherwise.
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D026683:Advisory Committees; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D010823:Physician Assistants / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D010820:Physicians; D014481:United States