Resilience Analytics with Application to Power Grid of a Developing Region.
Infrastructure development of volatile regions is a significant investment by international government and nongovernment organizations, with attendant requirements for risk management. Global development banks may be tasked to manage these investments and provide a channel between donors and borrowers. Moreover, various stakeholders from the private sector, local and international agencies, and the military can be engaged in conception, planning, and implementation of constituent projects. Emergent and future conditions of military conflict, politics, economics, technology, environment, behaviors, institutions, and society that stress infrastructure development are prevalent, and funding mechanisms are vulnerable to fraud, waste, and abuse. This article will apply resilience analytics with scenario-based preferences to identify the stressors that most influence a prioritization of initiatives in the electric power sector of Afghanistan. The resilience in this article is conceived in terms of the degree of disruption of priorities when stressors influence the preferences of stakeholders, and ultimately a prioritization of initiatives. The ancillary results include an understanding of which initiatives contribute most and least across strategic criteria and which criteria have the most impact for the analysis. The article concludes with recommendations for risk monitoring and risk management of the portfolio of stressors through the life cycle and horizon of grid capacity expansion.
Department of Systems & Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
Heimir
H
Thorisson
Department of Systems & Information Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
James H
JH
Lambert
U.S. Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA.
John J
JJ
Cardenas
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Concord, MA, USA.
Igor
I
Linkov
Afghanistan; energy security; infrastructure systems; programmatic risk; risk and development; systems acquisition; systems engineering