Excess seawater nutrients, enlarged algal symbiont densities and bleaching sensitive reef locations: 2. A regional-scale predictive model for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.
A spatial risk assessment model is developed for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia) that helps identify reef locations at higher or lower risk of coral bleaching in summer heat-wave conditions. The model confirms the considerable benefit of discriminating nutrient-enriched areas that contain corals with enlarged (suboptimal) symbiont densities for the purpose of identifying bleaching-sensitive reef locations. The benefit of the new system-level understanding is showcased in terms of: (i) improving early-warning forecasts of summer bleaching risk, (ii) explaining historical bleaching patterns, (iii) testing the bleaching-resistant quality of the current marine protected area (MPA) network (iv) identifying routinely monitored coral health attributes, such as the tissue energy reserves and skeletal growth characteristics (viz. density and extension rates) that correlate with bleaching resistant reef locations, and (v) targeting region-specific water quality improvement strategies that may increase reef-scale coral health and bleaching resistance.
Catchment to Reef Management Solutions, Newcastle, NSW 2300, Australia. Electronic address: swooldri23@gmail.com.
Scott A
SA
Wooldridge
NOAA Coral Reef Watch, NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, 5830 University Research Ct., E/RA3, College Park, MD 20740, USA; Marine Geophysical Laboratory, College of Science, Technology and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4814, Australia.
Scott F
SF
Heron
Centre for Tropical Water and Aquatic Ecosystem Research, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4814, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville 4810, Australia.
Jon E
JE
Brodie
Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3 Townsville MC, QLD 4810, Australia.
Terence J
TJ
Done
Silpakorn University, Krung Thep, Bangkok, Thailand.
Itsara
I
Masiri
University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, Perth, WA 2121, Australia.
Saskia
S
Hinrichs
D000818:Animals; D037421:Anthozoa / Q000254:growth & development*; D001315:Australia; D057231:Climate Change; D057894:Coral Reefs; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012623:Seawater / Q000737:chemistry*; D013696:Temperature
Bayesian Belief Network (BBN); Coral bleaching resistance; Coral calcification; Coral cores; Coral health; Marine protected area (MPA); Resilience; Water quality