Ongoing increase in incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Newcastle, Australia: A 50-year study.
BACKGROUND
Since 1959, multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence has been estimated for the east coast Australian city of Newcastle. Previous surveys, conducted in 1988 and 2003, have described an increase in the prevalence and incidence of MS.


OBJECTIVE
In this study, we evaluated whether these trends continue and provide 50 years of MS epidemiological follow-up for this southern hemisphere city.


METHODS
Expressed per 100,000 people, prevalence of MS in Newcastle was calculated for those with a confirmed diagnosis of MS on 9 August 2011 and incidence based on the number of cases with MS diagnosis made during the preceding decade. Data were age-standardised to the total Australian population. Statistical comparisons were undertaken using Poisson regression analysis.


RESULTS
In 2011, the estimate of MS prevalence was 124.2, with female-to-male ratio reaching 3.1, a 53% increase in female predominance since 1996. MS incidence increased to 6.7, with a significantly higher proportion of new female cases since the previous survey.


CONCLUSIONS
Prevalence of MS in Newcastle has risen linearly and is contributed to by a substantial increase in new cases over the preceding decade. Female predominance of MS cases continues to increase with a new diagnosis three times more likely in women.
Department of Neurology, John Hunter Hospital, New Lambton, NSW, Australia.
Karen
K
Ribbons
Hunter Medical Research Institute, Newcastle, NSW, Australia.
Rodney
R
Lea
Department of Medicine, John Hunter Hospital, New Lambton, NSW, Australia.
Clare
C
Tiedeman
School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medicine, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia.
Laura
L
Mackenzie
Department of Neurology, John Hunter Hospital, New Lambton, NSW, Australia/Hunter Medical Research Institute, Newcastle, NSW, Australia/School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medicine, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia.
Jeannette
J
Lechner-Scott
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009103:Multiple Sclerosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D017678:Sex Distribution; D055815:Young Adult
Incidence; epidemiology; prevalence; sex ratio