The future of Australia's Indigenous Population, 2011-61.
Existing projections of Australia's Indigenous Population suffer from a number of limitations: problematic input data, unsatisfactory projection model design, and poor forecast performance. The aim of this study was to create a new model for projecting that population that better represents the demographic processes at work, and that makes use of a newly available data source on identification change. A new projection model is presented that explicitly incorporates ethnic-identification change, and mixed (Indigenous/Non-Indigenous) partnering and childbearing. It is a composite static-dynamic model which takes a multi-state form where data allow. The model was used to produce projections for the 2011-61 period. Rapid growth of the Indigenous Population is expected, with population momentum, identification change, and mixed partnering and childbearing shown to contribute more to growth than above-replacement fertility and increasing life expectancy. The future growth of Australia's Indigenous Population is thus intimately connected to its interaction with the Non-Indigenous Population.
a Charles Darwin University.
Tom
T
Wilson
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D019352:Censuses; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D044465:White People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D055815:Young Adult
Australia; Indigenous; ethnic-identification change; mixed partnering; multi-state; population projections