Evaluation of Influenza Vaccination Efficacy: A Universal Epidemic Model.
By means of a designed epidemic model, we evaluated the influence of seasonal vaccination coverage as well as a potential universal vaccine with differing efficacy on the aftermath of seasonal and pandemic influenza. The results of the modeling enabled us to conclude that, to control a seasonal influenza epidemic with a reproduction coefficientR0≤ 1.5, a 35% vaccination coverage with the current seasonal influenza vaccine formulation is sufficient, provided that other epidemiology measures are regularly implemented. IncreasingR0level of pandemic strains will obviously require stronger intervention. In addition, seasonal influenza vaccines fail to confer protection against antigenically distinct pandemic influenza strains. Therefore, the necessity of a universal influenza vaccine is clear. The model predicts that a potential universal vaccine will be able to provide sufficient reliable (90%) protection against pandemic influenza only if its efficacy is comparable with the effectiveness of modern vaccines against seasonal influenza strains (70%-80%); given that at least 40% of the population has been vaccinated in advance, ill individuals have been isolated (observed), and a quarantine has been introduced. If other antiepidemic measures are absent, a vaccination coverage of at least 80% is required.
Vector State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology, Koltsovo, Novosibirsk Region 630559, Russia.
Lily Ph
0000-0002-9647-4969
LP
Nizolenko
Vector State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology, Koltsovo, Novosibirsk Region 630559, Russia.
Alexander G
0000-0002-3691-773X
AG
Bachinsky
Vector State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology, Koltsovo, Novosibirsk Region 630559, Russia.
Sergei I
SI
Bazhan
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