Patterns of crop cover under future climates.
We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.
Oceans & Atmosphere, The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Yarralumla, ACT, 2601, Australia. luciana.porfirio@csiro.au.
Luciana L
LL
Porfirio
Oceans & Atmosphere, The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Yarralumla, ACT, 2601, Australia.
David
D
Newth
Oceans & Atmosphere, The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Yarralumla, ACT, 2601, Australia.
Ian N
IN
Harman
Oceans & Atmosphere, The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Yarralumla, ACT, 2601, Australia.
John J
JJ
Finnigan
Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, The Australian National University, JG Crawford Building, 132 Lennox Crossing, Acton, ACT, 0200, Australia.
Yiyong
Y
Cai
D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors
Agro-ecological zones; Climate change; Food systems; Governance; Land cover; Land use
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