Predictive Value of Triglyceride Glucose Index for the Risk of Incident Diabetes: A 4-Year Retrospective Longitudinal Study.
The Triglyceride Glucose Index (TyG index) is considered a surrogate marker of insulin resistance. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the TyG index has a predictive role in identifying individuals with a high risk of incident diabetes and to compare it with other indicators of metabolic health. A total 2900 non-diabetic adults who attended five consecutive annual health check-ups at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital was divided into four subgroups using three methods: (1) baseline TyG index; (2) obesity status (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2) and cutoff value of TyG index; (3) obesity status and metabolic health, defined as having fewer than two of the five components of high blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and highest decile of homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance. The development of diabetes was assessed annually using self-questionnaire, fasting glucose, and glycated hemoglobin. We compared the risk of incident diabetes using multivariate Cox analysis. During 11623 person-years there were 101 case of incident diabetes. Subjects with high TyG index had a high risk of diabetes. For TyG index quartiles, hazard ratios (HRs) of quartiles 3 and 4 were 4.06 (p = 0.033) and 5.65 (p = 0.006) respectively. When the subjects were divided by obesity status and cutoff value of TyG index of 8.8, the subgroups with TyG index ≥ 8.8 regardless of obesity had a significantly high risk for diabetes (HR 2.40 [p = 0.024] and 2.25 [p = 0.048]). For obesity status and metabolic health, the two metabolically unhealthy subgroups regardless of obesity had a significantly high risk for diabetes (HRs 2.54 [p = 0.024] and 2.73 [p = 0.021]). In conclusion, the TyG index measured at a single time point may be an indicator of the risk for incident diabetes. The predictive value of the TyG index was comparable to that of metabolic health.
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Da Young
DY
Lee
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Eun Seo
ES
Lee
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Ji Hyun
JH
Kim
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Se Eun
SE
Park
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Cheol-Young
CY
Park
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Ki-Won
KW
Oh
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Sung-Woo
SW
Park
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Eun-Jung
EJ
Rhee
Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Won-Young
WY
Lee
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