Seeing What You Want to See: How Imprecise Uncertainty Ranges Enhance Motivated Reasoning.
In this article, we consider a novel criterion for evaluating representations of uncertainty ranges, namely, the extent to which a representation enhances motivated reasoning. In two studies, we show that perceptions of the distribution underlying ambiguous numerical ranges are affected by the motivations and worldviews of end users. This motivated reasoning effect remained after controlling for objective numeracy and fluid intelligence but was attenuated when the correct interpretation was made clear. We suggest that analysts and communicators explicitly consider the potential for motivated evaluation when evaluating uncertainty displays.
School of Nursing and School of Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, USA.|Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA.
Nathan F
NF
Dieckmann
Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA.
Robin
R
Gregory
Department of Psychology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA.
Ellen
E
Peters
The MITRE Corporation, McLean, VA, USA.
Robert
R
Hartman
Motivated reasoning; risk communication; uncertainty; worldviews