Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China.
Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the "very good" category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time.
College of Life Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.|Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
Hongjun
H
Jiang
College of Life Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
Ting
T
Liu
College of Life Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
Lin
L
Li
College of Life Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
Yao
Y
Zhao
Hebei Province Academy of Chinese Medicine Sciences, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
Lin
L
Pei
College of Life Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
Jiancheng
J
Zhao
Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Sep;19(9):2645-54
23666800
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 May 26;106(21):8441-6
19439652
Nature. 2010 Feb 11;463(7282):747-56
20148028
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Mar 4;111(9):3228-32
24344316
Int J Genomics. 2015;2015:782635
26543847
Tumour Biol. 2015 Apr;36(4):2913-9
25501282
PeerJ. 2017 Dec 5;5:e4095
29230356
Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Sep;20(9):2800-14
24446429
Ecol Evol. 2014 Aug;4(16):3147-61
25473469
PLoS One. 2014 Sep 02;9(9):e106405
25180515
Glob Chang Biol. 2015 Aug;21(8):2917-28
25931153
Science. 2011 Aug 19;333(6045):1024-6
21852500
PLoS One. 2014 Jan 08;9(1):e82490
24416144
J Anim Ecol. 2009 Jan;78(1):182-90
18771504
PLoS One. 2014 Aug 22;9(8):e105765
25148032
Naturwissenschaften. 2012 Jul;99(7):515-22
22660474
Ecol Evol. 2014 Jun;4(12):2584-93
25360288
J Evol Biol. 2013 Nov;26(11):2487-96
24016292
PLoS One. 2016 Jan 06;11(1):e0145232
26735128
Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Aug;19(8):2524-35
23625760
Clim Change. 2016;135:381-393
27429499
Nature. 2003 Jan 2;421(6918):57-60
12511952
Ecol Lett. 2012 Apr;15(4):365-377
22257223
Phytomedicine. 2014 Sep 15;21(10):1178-88
24877714
Trends Ecol Evol. 2007 Nov;22(11):583-92
17981360
Ecol Lett. 2005 Sep;8(9):993-1009
34517687
Science. 2008 Jun 27;320(5884):1768-71
18583610
Nature. 2004 Jan 8;427(6970):145-8
14712274
Nature. 2003 Jan 2;421(6918):37-42
12511946
Science. 1988 Jun 3;240(4857):1285-93
3287615
Ecol Lett. 2013 Dec;16(12):1424-35
24134332