Estimates of the risk of large or long-lasting outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome after importations outside the Arabian Peninsula.
We quantify outbreak risk after importations of Middle East respiratory syndrome outside the Arabian Peninsula. Data from 31 importation events show strong statistical support for lower transmissibility after early transmission generations. Our model projects the risk of ≥10, 100, and 500 transmissions as 11%, 2%, and 0.02%, and ≥1, 2, 3, and 4 generations as 23%, 14%, 0.9%, and 0.05%, respectively. Our results suggest tempered risk of large, long-lasting outbreaks with appropriate control measures.
Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, UT, USA. Electronic address: Damon.Toth@hsc.utah.edu.
Damon J A
DJ
Toth
Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Windy D
WD
Tanner
Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Karim
K
Khader
Division of Epidemiology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Department of Pathology, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Adi V
AV
Gundlapalli
D018352:Coronavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D065207:Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus; D012306:Risk
MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome); Mathematical model; Outbreaks; Public health; Risk assessment
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