Effect of modelling slum populations on influenza spread in Delhi.
OBJECTIVE
This research studies the impact of influenza epidemic in the slum and non-slum areas of Delhi, the National Capital Territory of India, by taking proper account of slum demographics and residents' activities, using a highly resolved social contact network of the 13.8 million residents of Delhi.


METHODS
An SEIR model is used to simulate the spread of influenza on two different synthetic social contact networks of Delhi, one where slums and non-slums are treated the same in terms of their demographics and daily sets of activities and the other, where slum and non-slum regions have different attributes.


RESULTS
Differences between the epidemic outcomes on the two networks are large. Time-to-peak infection is overestimated by several weeks, and the cumulative infection rate and peak infection rate are underestimated by 10-50%, when slum attributes are ignored.


CONCLUSIONS
Slum populations have a significant effect on influenza transmission in urban areas. Improper specification of slums in large urban regions results in underestimation of infections in the entire population and hence will lead to misguided interventions by policy planners.
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Jiangzhuo
J
Chen
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Shuyu
S
Chu
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Youngyun
Y
Chungbaek
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Maleq
M
Khan
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Christopher
C
Kuhlman
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Achla
A
Marathe
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Henning
H
Mortveit
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Anil
A
Vullikanti
Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Biocomplexity Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA.
Dawen
D
Xie
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Emerg Infect Dis. 2015 Sep;21(9):1602-10
26292106
Science. 2009 Oct 30;326(5953):729-33
19745114
Am J Public Health. 2003 Sep;93(9):1381
12948945
Epidemics. 2012 Aug;4(3):132-8
22939310
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2016 Feb 12;65(5):101-5
26866729
Science. 2014 Nov 21;346(6212):991-5
25414312
PLoS Comput Biol. 2013;9(12):e1003327
24348223
BMC Public Health. 2015 Sep 23;15:947
26400564
Health Place. 2012 Sep;18(5):1144-52
22591621
AIDS Behav. 2003 Sep;7(3):263-72
14586189
Arch Dis Child. 2005 Nov;90(11):1175-81
15964861
Health Policy Plan. 2012 Sep;27(6):516-26
22131367
BMC Int Health Hum Rights. 2007 Mar 07;7:2
17343758
Am J Public Health. 2011 Sep;101(9):1785-9
21778498
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 Dec 31;9(12):e0004260
26720278
Epidemics. 2015 Mar;10:58-62
25843385
Lancet Glob Health. 2014 Dec;2(12):e685
25433618
Epidemics. 2011 Mar;3(1):19-31
21339828
Artif Intell Med. 2015 Oct;65(2):113-30
26234464