Freight-train derailment rates for railroad safety and risk analysis.
Derailments are the most common type of train accident in the United States. They cause damage to infrastructure, rolling stock and lading, disrupt service, and have the potential to cause casualties, and harm the environment. Train safety and risk analysis relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood. Derailment rate - the number of derailments normalized by traffic exposure - is a useful statistic to estimate the likelihood of a derailment. Despite its importance, derailment rate analysis using multiple factors has not been previously developed. In this paper, we present an analysis of derailment rates on Class I railroad mainlines based on data from the U.S. Federal Railroad Administration and the major freight railroads. The point estimator and confidence interval of train and car derailment rates are developed by FRA track class, method of operation and annual traffic density. The analysis shows that signaled track with higher FRA track class and higher traffic density is associated with a lower derailment rate. The new accident rates have important implications for safety and risk management decisions, such as the routing of hazardous materials.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, CoRE 606, 96 Frelinghuysen Road Piscataway, NJ 08854-8018. Electronic address: xiang.liu@rutgers.edu.
Xiang
X
Liu
Operations Analysis, Policy and Economics Department Association of American Railroads 425 Third St., SW Washington, DC 20024. Electronic address: rapik@aar.org.
M
M
Rapik Saat
Rail Transportation and Engineering Center (RailTEC), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 1245 Newmark Civil Engineering Lab, MC-250, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 205 N. Mathews Ave., Urbana, IL 61801. Electronic address: cbarkan@illinois.edu.
Christopher P L
CP
Barkan
D000059:Accidents / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015386:Hazardous Substances; D006801:Humans; D011336:Probability; D011890:Railroads; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012308:Risk Management; D012449:Safety; D014481:United States
D015386:Hazardous Substances
Derailment rate; Hazardous materials transportation; Railroad safety; Risk analysis