title: Can You Judge a Disease Host by the Company It Keeps? Predicting Disease Hosts and Their Relative Importance: A Case Study for Leishmaniasis.
abstract: Zoonoses are an important class of infectious diseases. An important element determining the impact of a zoonosis on domestic animal and human health is host range. Although for particular zoonoses some host species have been identified, until recently there have been no methods to predict those species most likely to be hosts or their relative importance. Complex inference networks infer potential biotic interactions between species using their degree of geographic co-occurrence, and have been posited as a potential tool for predicting disease hosts. Here we present the results of an interdisciplinary, empirical study to validate a model based on such networks for predicting hosts of Leishmania (L.) mexicana in Mexico. Using systematic sampling to validate the model predictions we identified 22 new species of host (34% of all species collected) with the probability to be a host strongly dependent on the probability of co-occurrence of vector and host. The results confirm that Leishmania (L.) mexicana is a generalist parasite but with a much wider host range than was previously thought. These results substantially change the geographic risk profile for Leishmaniasis and provide insights for the design of more efficient surveillance measures and a better understanding of potential dispersal scenarios.
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico.|C3 - Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico.
authors.forename: Christopher R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Stephens
authors.affiliation: C3 - Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico.
authors.forename: Constantino
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7347-714X
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: González-Salazar
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico.
authors.forename: Víctor
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Cordero
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Investigación en Medicina Experimental, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico.
authors.forename: Ingeborg
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Becker
authors.affiliation: Laboratorio de Entomología Médica, Departamento de Zoología de Invertebrados, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León, Nuevo León, México.
authors.forename: Eduardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Rebollar-Tellez
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Biología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico.
authors.forename: Ángel
authors.initials: Á
authors.lastname: Rodríguez-Moreno
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Investigación en Medicina Experimental, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico.
authors.forename: Miriam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Berzunza-Cruz
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Investigación en Medicina Experimental, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico.
authors.forename: Cristina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Domingo Balcells
authors.affiliation: Facultad de Estudios Superiores-Zaragoza, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F., México.
authors.forename: Gabriel
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Gutiérrez-Granados
authors.affiliation: División Académica de Ciencias Biológicas. Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco, Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
authors.forename: Mircea
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hidalgo-Mihart
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecología Humana, Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del Instituto Politécnico Nacional (Cinvestav) Unidad Mérida, Mérida, Yucatán, México.
authors.forename: Carlos N
authors.initials: CN
authors.lastname: Ibarra-Cerdeña
authors.affiliation: Laboratorio de Zoología, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Universidad de Guadalajara, Jalisco, México.
authors.forename: Martha Pilar
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Ibarra López
authors.affiliation: Laboratorio de Zoología, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Universidad de Guadalajara, Jalisco, México.
authors.forename: Luis Ignacio
authors.initials: LI
authors.lastname: Iñiguez Dávalos
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Salud y Ecología Humana, Centro Universitario de la Costa Sur, Universidad de Guadalajara, Jalisco, México.
authors.forename: María Magdalena
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Ramírez Martínez
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000145:classification / Q000469:parasitology; D058507:Host Specificity; D006801:Humans; D007891:Leishmania / Q000235:genetics / Q000302:isolation & purification / Q000502:physiology*; D007896:Leishmaniasis / Q000469:parasitology / Q000635:transmission; D008800:Mexico; D051379:Mice; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000469:parasitology* / Q000635:transmission