title: Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.
abstract: Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.
authors.affiliation: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, Dartmouth, MA 02747 USA.
authors.forename: Zhaoyang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, Dartmouth, MA 02747 USA.
authors.forename: Honggang
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: InterDigital, Inc., Wilmington, DE 19809 USA.
authors.forename: Chonggang
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA 01655 USA.
authors.forename: Hua
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Fang
keywords: Epidemic modeling; epidemic control; optimal strategies; social contact network