title: Red blood cell use in Switzerland: trends and demographic challenges.
abstract: Several studies have raised concerns that future demand for blood products may not be met. The ageing of the general population and the fact that a large proportion of blood products is transfused to elderly patients has been identified as an important driver of blood shortages. The aim of this study was to collect, for the first time, nationally representative data regarding blood donors and transfusion recipients in order to predict the future evolution of blood donations and red blood cell (RBC) use in Switzerland between 2014 and 2035.
  
  
  
  Blood donor and transfusion recipient data, subdivided by the subjects' age and gender were obtained from Regional Blood Services and nine large, acute-care hospitals in various regions of Switzerland. Generalised additive regression models and time-series models with exponential smoothing were employed to estimate trends of whole blood donations and RBC transfusions.
  
  
  
  The trend models employed suggested that RBC demand could equal supply by 2018 and could eventually cause an increasing shortfall of up to 77,000 RBC units by 2035.
  
  
  
  Our study highlights the need for continuous monitoring of trends of blood donations and blood transfusions in order to take proactive measures aimed at preventing blood shortages in Switzerland. Measures should be taken to improve donor retention in order to prevent a further erosion of the blood donor base.
authors.affiliation: School of Health Professions, Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Winterthur, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Volken
authors.affiliation: Blood Transfusion Centre Basel, Swiss Red Cross, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Buser
authors.affiliation: Blood Transfusion Service Svizzera italiana, Swiss Red Cross, Lugano, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Damiano
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Castelli
authors.affiliation: Inter-regional Blood Transfusion Service, Swiss Red Cross, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fontana
authors.affiliation: Blood Transfusion Service Zurich, Swiss Red Cross, Schlieren, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Beat M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Frey
authors.affiliation: PROlindo, Lindenhofgruppe, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Ilka
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Rüsges-Wolter
authors.affiliation: Blood Transfusion Service Neuchâtelois et Jurassien, Swiss Red Cross, La Chaux-de-Fonds, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Amira
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sarraj
authors.affiliation: Blood Transfusion Centre Aargau-Solothurn, Swiss Red Cross, Aarau, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Jörg
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sigle
authors.affiliation: Blood Transfusion Service Eastern Switzerland, Swiss Red Cross, St. Gallen, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Jutta
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Thierbach
authors.affiliation: Blood Transfusion Service Central Switzerland, Swiss Red Cross, Lucerne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Tina
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Weingand
authors.affiliation: Swiss Transfusion SRC, Swiss Red Cross, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Behrouz Mansouri
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Taleghani
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001782:Blood Donors / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D058731:Blood Safety; D017707:Erythrocyte Transfusion / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013557:Switzerland