title: Fitting HIV Prevalence 1981 Onwards for Three Indian States Using the Goals Model and the Estimation and Projection Package.
abstract: Models are designed to provide evidence for strategic program planning by examining the impact of different interventions on projected HIV incidence. We employed the Goals Model to fit the HIV epidemic curves in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu states of India where HIV epidemic is considered to have matured and in a declining phase. Input data in the Goals Model consisted of demographic, epidemiological, transmission-related and risk group wise behavioral parameters. The HIV prevalence curves generated in the Goals Model for each risk group in the three states were compared with the epidemic curves generated by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that the national program is routinely using. In all the three states, the HIV prevalence trends for high-risk populations simulated by the Goals Model matched well with those derived using state-level HIV surveillance data in the EPP. However, trends for the low- and medium-risk populations differed between the two models. This highlights the need to generate more representative and robust data in these sub-populations and consider some structural changes in the modeling equation and parameters in the Goals Model to effectively use it to assess the impact of future strategies of HIV control in various sub-populations in India at the sub-national level.
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Epidemiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
authors.forename: Tarun
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Bhatnagar
authors.affiliation: International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, New Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Tapati
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Dutta
authors.affiliation: Avenir Health, Glastonbury, Connecticut, United States of America.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Stover
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, National AIDS Research Institute, Indian Council of Medical Research, Pune, Maharashtra, India.
authors.forename: Sheela
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Godbole
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Medical Statistics, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Damodar
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Sahu
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Epidemiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
authors.forename: Kangusamy
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Boopathi
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, National AIDS Research Institute, Indian Council of Medical Research, Pune, Maharashtra, India.
authors.forename: Shilpa
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bembalkar
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Medical Statistics, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Kh Jitenkumar
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Singh
authors.affiliation: International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, New Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Rajat
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Goyal
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Medical Statistics, Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Arvind
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pandey
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Epidemiology, Indian Council of Medical Research, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
authors.forename: Sanjay M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Mehendale
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006040:Goals; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D055815:Young Adult