title: Modelling of seasonal influenza and estimation of the burden in Tunisia.
abstract: The burden of influenza was estimated from surveillance data in Tunisia using epidemiological parameters of transmission with WHO classical tools and mathematical modelling. The incidence rates of influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100 000 were 18 735 in 2012/2013 season; 5536 in 2013/14 and 12 602 in 2014/15. The estimated proportions of influenza-associated ILI in the total outpatient load were 3.16%; 0.86% and 1.98% in the 3 seasons respectively. Distribution of influenza viruses among positive patients was: A(H3N2) 15.5%; A(H1N1)pdm2009 39.2%; and B virus 45.3% in 2014/2015 season. From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. More realistic versions of this model and improved estimates of parameters from surveillance data will strengthen the estimation of the burden of influenza.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Medical Epidemiology, Pasteur Institute of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia; Joint author.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Chlif
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Medical Epidemiology, Pasteur Institute of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia; Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia; Joint author.
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Aissi
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Medical Epidemiology, Pasteur Institute of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia; Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bettaieb
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Medical Epidemiology, Pasteur Institute of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia; Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Kharroubi
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Medical Epidemiology, Pasteur Institute of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia; Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Nouira
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Medical Epidemiology, Pasteur Institute of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Yazidi
authors.affiliation: Virology Unit, Microbiology Laboratory, National Influenza Centre, Charles Nicolle's Hospital, Tunis, Tunisia.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: El Moussi
authors.affiliation: Primary Health Care Directorate, Minisstry of Public Health of Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia. Additional.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Maazaoui
authors.affiliation: Virology Unit, Microbiology Laboratory, National Influenza Centre, Charles Nicolle's Hospital, Tunis, Tunisia.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Slim
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Medical Epidemiology, Pasteur Institute of Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia; Faculty of Medicine of Tunis, University of Tunis El Manar, Tunis, Tunisia.
authors.forename: A Ben
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Salah
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D017281:Cost of Illness; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D053122:Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012621:Seasons; D014416:Tunisia; D055815:Young Adult