title: Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network.
abstract: Pipelines are one of the most popular and effective ways of transporting hazardous materials, especially natural gas. However, the rapid development of gas pipelines and stations in urban areas has introduced a serious threat to public safety and assets. Although different methods have been developed for risk analysis of gas transportation systems, a comprehensive methodology for risk analysis is still lacking, especially in natural gas stations. The present work is aimed at developing a dynamic and comprehensive quantitative risk analysis (DCQRA) approach for accident scenario and risk modeling of natural gas stations. In this approach, a FMEA is used for hazard analysis while a Bow-tie diagram and Bayesian network are employed to model the worst-case accident scenario and to assess the risks. The results have indicated that the failure of the regulator system was the worst-case accident scenario with the human error as the most contributing factor. Thus, in risk management plan of natural gas stations, priority should be given to the most probable root events and main contribution factors, which have identified in the present study, in order to reduce the occurrence probability of the accident scenarios and thus alleviate the risks.
authors.affiliation: Center of Excellence for Occupational Health Engineering, Research Center for Health Sciences, Faculty of Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran. Electronic address: smlzarei65@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Esmaeil
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Zarei
authors.affiliation: School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Center of Excellence for Intelligent-Based Experimental Mechanic, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Ali
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Azadeh
authors.affiliation: Safety and Security Science Section, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Nima
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Khakzad
authors.affiliation: Center of Excellence for Occupational Health Engineering, Research Center for Health Sciences, Faculty of Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
authors.forename: Mostafa Mirzaei
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Aliabadi
authors.affiliation: Center of Excellence for Occupational Health Engineering, Research Center for Health Sciences, Faculty of Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran. Electronic address: mohammadfam@umsha.ac.ir.
authors.forename: Iraj
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Mohammadfam
keywords: Bayesian network; Bow-tie approach; City gate station; Dynamic risk analysis; FMEA