title: Novel nomograms for survival and progression in HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal cancer: a population-based study of 1,542 consecutive patients.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  No study has combined tumour and clinical covariates for survival to construct an individual risk-profile for overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP), and survival after progression (SAP) in patients with HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Based on the largest-to-date, unselected, population-based cohort of patients diagnosed with OPSCC, we performed a comprehensive analysis of long-term OS, TTP, and SAP and constructed novel nomograms to evaluate patients' prognoses.
  
  
  RESULTS
  At a median follow-up of 4.0 years (range: 0.8-15.8 yrs.), 690 deaths were recorded. The 5-year OS, TTP, and SAP for the HPV+/p16+ subgroup were 77%, 82%, and 33, vs. 30%, 66%, and 6% for the HPV-/p16- group (P < 0.01). 376 patients failed to maintain disease control with a median TTP of 13 months in the HPV+/p16+ subgroup vs. 8.5 months in the HPV-/p16- subgroup (P < 0.05). HPV combined with p16 status remained one of the most informative covariates in the final Cox regression model for OS, TTP, and SAP.
  
  
  METHODS
  We included all patients diagnosed with OPSCC (n = 1,542) between 2000-2014 in Eastern Denmark. Survival rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to construct predictive, internally validated nomograms.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The HPV+/p16+ subgroup had improved OS, TTP, and SAP compared with other combinations of HPV and p16 after adjusting for covariates. Nomograms were constructed for 1-, 5- and 10-year survival probability. Models may aid patients and clinicians in their clinical decision making as well as in counselling, research, and trial design.
authors.affiliation: Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery and Audiology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Christian Grønhøj
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Larsen
authors.affiliation: Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery and Audiology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: David H
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Jensen
authors.affiliation: Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery and Audiology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Amanda-Louise Fenger
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Carlander
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Katalin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kiss
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Luise
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Andersen
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology, Roskilde Hospital, Roskilde, Denmark.
authors.forename: Caroline Holkmann
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Olsen
authors.affiliation: Department of Oncology, Herlev Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Elo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Andersen
authors.affiliation: Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery and Audiology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Emilie
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Garnæs
authors.affiliation: Centre for Genomic Medicine, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Finn
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Cilius
authors.affiliation: Department of Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Lena
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Specht
authors.affiliation: Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery and Audiology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: von Buchwald
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D009959:Oropharyngeal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000821:virology; D027383:Papillomaviridae / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: human papillomavirus; nomogram; oropharyngeal cancer; survival