title: The futility of risk prediction in psychiatry.
abstract: Significant efforts have been made to identify risk factors associated with suicide. However, the evidence suggests that risk categorisation may be of limited value, or worse, potentially harmful, confusing clinical thinking. We argue instead for a shift in focus towards real engagement with the individual patient, their specific problems and circumstances.
authors.affiliation: Roger Mulder, MB ChB, PhD, FRANZCP, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand; Giles Newton-Howes, MRCPsych, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand; Jeremy W. Coid, MB ChB, MD(Lond), FRCPsych, MPhilDipCriminol, Violence Prevention Research Unit, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University, London, UK roger.mulder@otago.ac.nz.
authors.forename: Roger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mulder
authors.affiliation: Roger Mulder, MB ChB, PhD, FRANZCP, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand; Giles Newton-Howes, MRCPsych, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand; Jeremy W. Coid, MB ChB, MD(Lond), FRCPsych, MPhilDipCriminol, Violence Prevention Research Unit, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University, London, UK.
authors.forename: Giles
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Newton-Howes
authors.affiliation: Roger Mulder, MB ChB, PhD, FRANZCP, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand; Giles Newton-Howes, MRCPsych, Department of Psychological Medicine, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand; Jeremy W. Coid, MB ChB, MD(Lond), FRCPsych, MPhilDipCriminol, Violence Prevention Research Unit, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University, London, UK.
authors.forename: Jeremy W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Coid
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D011570:Psychiatry / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards*; D013405:Suicide