title: Reframing the debate: A question of probability, not of likelihood ratio.
abstract: Evidential value is measured by a likelihood ratio. This ratio has two components, the probability, or probability density, of the evidence if the prosecution proposition is true and the probability (density) of the evidence if the defence proposition is true. It takes the form of a single value, even if these probabilities are subjective measures of belief of the reporting forensic scientist.
authors.affiliation: University of Lausanne, School of Criminal Justice, 1015 Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland. Electronic address: alex.biedermann@unil.ch.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Biedermann
authors.affiliation: University of Lausanne, School of Criminal Justice, 1015 Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland; Ca'Foscari University Venice, Department of Economics, 30121 Venice, Italy.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bozza
authors.affiliation: University of Lausanne, School of Criminal Justice, 1015 Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Taroni
authors.affiliation: University of Edinburgh, School of Mathematics and Maxwell Institute, Edinburgh EH9 3FD, Scotland.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Aitken
keywords: Evidence evaluation; Likelihood ratio; Probability; Uncertainty