title: A primer on the statistical modelling of learning curves in health professions education.
abstract: Learning curves are a useful way of representing the rate of learning over time. Features include an index of baseline performance (y-intercept), the efficiency of learning over time (slope parameter) and the maximal theoretical performance achievable (upper asymptote). Each of these parameters can be statistically modelled on an individual and group basis with the resulting estimates being useful to both learners and educators for feedback and educational quality improvement. In this primer, we review various descriptive and modelling techniques appropriate to learning curves including smoothing, regression modelling and application of the Thurstone model. Using an example dataset we demonstrate each technique as it specifically applies to learning curves and point out limitations.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Innovations in Medical Education, New York University School of Medicine, 550 First Avenue, MSB G109, New York, NY, 10016, USA. martin.pusic@nyumc.org.
authors.forename: Martin V
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5236-6598
authors.initials: MV
authors.lastname: Pusic
authors.affiliation: The Hospital for Sick Children, and University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: Kathy
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Boutis
authors.affiliation: Contrail Consulting Services, Toronto, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: Martin R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Pecaric
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Oleksander
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Savenkov
authors.affiliation: University of South Florida College of Nursing, Tampa, FL, USA.
authors.forename: Jason W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Beckstead
authors.affiliation: Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Ryerson University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: Mohamad Y
authors.initials: MY
authors.lastname: Jaber
mesh_terms: D004521:Educational Measurement / Q000379:methods; D006281:Health Occupations / Q000193:education*; D006801:Humans; D059032:Learning Curve; D017145:Models, Educational; D015233:Models, Statistical
keywords: Competency; Growth models; Learning curves; Mastery; Medical education; Regression models; Statistical modelling