title: Annual prognostic factors in chronic heart failure in patients over 80 years old.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In the elderly the most common cause of hospitalisation and the leading cause of death is heart failure (HF).
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The purpose was to determine prognostic factors in chronic HF (CHF) in octogenarians and nonagenarians.
  
  
  METHODS
  The analysis included 197 consecutive patients over 80 years old (mean age 83.63 ± 3.01 years; 46.19% men) hospitalised in 2010-2013 due to CHF. Sixty-two parameters were investigated, such as: age, gender, New York Heart Asso-ciation functional class, body mass index, blood pressure, other comorbidities, the parameters of the 12-lead resting electro-cardiography and the echocardiography, the results of basic laboratory tests, and selected biomarkers, including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitive troponin T (hs-TnT), and high-sensitive C-reactive protein. Participants remained in a prospective follow-up for 12 months. We defined the primary endpoint as death due to cardiovascular causes and the composite endpoint, which consisted of: death due to cardiovascular causes and/or hospitalisation for exacerbation of CHF. Follow-up concerning the deaths was performed in 189 patients, composite endpoint in 168 and hospitalisation in 166. The uni- and multivariate logistic regression stepwise analysis was performed for the entire population, according to left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF < 45% and ≥ 45%) and in the group with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) < 60 mL/min.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Patients who died constituted 11.1% of the study population (21/189). In multivariate analysis four variables were independently associated with the primary endpoint: GFR (OR = 0.92), hypertension (OR = 0.19), lung diseases (OR = 9.36), and vascular diseases (OR = 6.07). In turn, in the group of patients who reached the composite endpoint (55/168; 32.7%), the only statistically significant independent variable was anaemia (OR = 4.71). In the subpopulation of patients with LVEF < 45% the prognostics for each endpoint were vascular diseases and lung diseases, and they increased the risk from 10- to 24-fold. In the subgroup of patients with LVEF ≥ 45% the independent variable associated with the composite endpoint was haemoglobin (OR = 0.61), in turn for death the prognostics were: white blood cell count, hs-TnT, and vascular diseases (respectively OR = 1.30; OR = 1.04; OR = 3.96). In the population with GFR < 60 mL/min variables with prognostic importance for the composite endpoint were red blood cell parameters: red blood cell distribution width (OR = 1.42) and anaemia (OR = 3.79), while for occurrence of death they were the same as for the entire population - vascular (OR = 5.16) and lung diseases (OR = 4.72).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In patients over 80 years old with CHF, comorbidities are of important prognostic value for annual prognosis. The most aggravating factor in studied subgroups was lung disease.
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cichocka-Radwan
authors.affiliation: Chair of Cardiology, Cardiac Surgery and Vascular Diseases Medical University of Lodz. mlelonek@poczta.fm.
authors.forename: Małgorzata
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lelonek
mesh_terms: D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002908:Chronic Disease; D015897:Comorbidity; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008171:Lung Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D011044:Poland / Q000453:epidemiology; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: chronic heart failure; elderly; prognosis