title: Do MCAT scores predict USMLE scores? An analysis on 5 years of medical student data.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The purpose of this study was to determine the associations and predictive values of Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) component and composite scores prior to 2015 with U.S. Medical Licensure Exam (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) scores, with a focus on whether students scoring low on the MCAT were particularly likely to continue to score low on the USMLE exams.
  
  
  METHODS
  Multiple linear regression, correlation, and chi-square analyses were performed to determine the relationship between MCAT component and composite scores and USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores from five graduating classes (2011-2015) at the University of Minnesota Medical School (N=1,065).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The multiple linear regression analyses were both significant (p<0.001). The three MCAT component scores together explained 17.7% of the variance in Step 1 scores (p<0.001) and 12.0% of the variance in Step 2 CK scores (p<0.001). In the chi-square analyses, significant, albeit weak associations were observed between almost all MCAT component scores and USMLE scores (Cramer's V ranged from 0.05 to 0.24).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Each of the MCAT component scores was significantly associated with USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores, although the effect size was small. Being in the top or bottom scoring range of the MCAT exam was predictive of being in the top or bottom scoring range of the USMLE exams, although the strengths of the associations were weak to moderate. These results indicate that MCAT scores are predictive of student performance on the USMLE exams, but, given the small effect sizes, should be considered as part of the holistic view of the student.
authors.affiliation: Medical School, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
authors.forename: Jacqueline L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Gauer
authors.affiliation: Medical School, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
authors.forename: Josephine M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Wolff
authors.affiliation: Medical School, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA; jacksonb@umn.edu.
authors.forename: J Brooks
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Jackson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003099:College Admission Test / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004521:Educational Measurement / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008007:Licensure, Medical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D014481:United States; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: MCAT; USMLE; admissions; chi-square; multiple linear regression; predictive value