title: Deviation from goal pace, body temperature and body mass loss as predictors of road race performance.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between pacing, gastrointestinal temperature (TGI), and percent body mass loss (%BML) on relative race performance during a warm weather 11.3km road race.
  
  
  METHODS
  Observational study of a sample of active runners competing in the 2014 Falmouth Road Race.
  
  
  METHODS
  Participants ingested a TGIpill and donned a GPS enabled watch with heart rate monitoring capabilities prior to the start of the race. Percent off predicted pace (%OFF) was calculated for seven segments of the race. Separate linear regression analyses were used to assess the relationship between pace, T​GI, and %BML on relative race performance. One-way ANOVA was used to analyse post race TGI(≥40°C vs <40°C) on pace and %OFF.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Larger %BML was associated with faster finish times (R2=0.19, p=0.018), faster average pace (R2=0.29, p=0.012), and a greater %OFF(R2=0.15, p=0.033). %OFFduring the first mile (1.61km) significantly predicted overall finish time (R2=0.64, p<0.001) while %OFFduring the second mile (3.22km) (R2change=0.18, p<0.001) further added to the model (R2=0.82, p<0.001). Body temperature (pre race TGIand post race TGI) was not predictive of overall finish time (p>0.05). There was a trend in a slower pace (p=0.055) and greater %OFF(p=0.056) in runners finishing the race with a TGI>40°C.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Overall, finish time was influenced by greater variations in pace during the first two miles of the race. In addition, runners who minimized fluid losses and had lower TGIwere associated with meeting self-predicted goals.
authors.affiliation: Korey Stringer Institute, Human Performance Laboratory, Department of Kinesiology, University of Connecticut, United States. Electronic address: william.adams@uconn.edu.
authors.forename: William M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Adams
authors.affiliation: Korey Stringer Institute, Human Performance Laboratory, Department of Kinesiology, University of Connecticut, United States.
authors.forename: Yuri
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hosokawa
authors.affiliation: Korey Stringer Institute, Human Performance Laboratory, Department of Kinesiology, University of Connecticut, United States.
authors.forename: Luke N
authors.initials: LN
authors.lastname: Belval
authors.affiliation: Korey Stringer Institute, Human Performance Laboratory, Department of Kinesiology, University of Connecticut, United States.
authors.forename: Robert A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Huggins
authors.affiliation: Korey Stringer Institute, Human Performance Laboratory, Department of Kinesiology, University of Connecticut, United States.
authors.forename: Rebecca L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Stearns
authors.affiliation: Korey Stringer Institute, Human Performance Laboratory, Department of Kinesiology, University of Connecticut, United States.
authors.forename: Douglas J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Casa
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D054874:Athletic Performance; D001831:Body Temperature; D001835:Body Weight; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012420:Running / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: Dehydration; Gastrointenstinal temperature; Hypohydration; Predicted running performance