title: Time-Lagging Interplay Effect and Excess Risk of Meteorological/Mosquito Parameters and Petrochemical Gas Explosion on Dengue Incidence.
abstract: In Kaohsiung, a metropolitan city in Taiwan at high risk of dengue epidemic, weather factors combined with an accidental petrochemical gas explosion (PGE) may affect mosquito‒human dynamics in 2014. Generalized estimating equations with lagged-time Poisson regression analyses were used to evaluate the effect of meteorological/mosquito parameters and PGE on dengue incidences (2000-2014) in Kaohsiung. Increased minimum temperatures rendered a 2- and 3-month lagging interactive effect on higher dengue risks, and higher rainfall exhibited a 1- and 2-month lagging interplay effect on lower risks (interaction, P ≤ 0.001). The dengue risk was significantly higher than that in a large-scale outbreak year (2002) from week 5 after PGE accident in 2014 (2.9‒8.3-fold for weeks 5‒22). The greatest cross-correlation of dengue incidences in the PGE-affected and PGE-neighboring districts was identified at weeks 1 after the PGE (rs= 0.956, P < 0.001). Compared with the reference years, the combined effect of minimum temperature, rainfall, and PGE accounted for 75.1% of excess dengue risk in 2014. In conclusion, time-lagging interplay effects from minimum temperature and rainfall may be respectively associated with early and near environments facilitating dengue transmission. Events that interact with weather and influence mosquito‒human dynamics, such as PGEs, should not be ignored in dengue prevention and control.
authors.affiliation: Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.|Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Municipal Hsiao-Kang Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Ko
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: Bureau of Public Health, Kaohsiung City Government, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Chaur-Dong
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Graduate Institute of Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.|Research Center for Environmental Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Chien-Ming
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Shih
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Tzu-Chi
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Environmental Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.|Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.|Department of Community Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Ming-Tsang
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Municipal Ta-Tung Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Deng-Chyang
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Yen-Hsu
authors.initials: YH
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Graduate Institute of Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.|Department of Pediatrics, Kaohsiung Municipal Hsiao-Kang Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Chih-Hsing
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Hung
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Municipal Hsiao-Kang Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Meng-Chieh
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.|Department of Laboratory Medicine, Kaohsiung Municipal Hsiao-Kang Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Chun-Chi
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Environmental Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.|Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Chien-Hung
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Bureau of Public Health, Kaohsiung City Government, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.|Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Chi-Kung
authors.initials: CK
authors.lastname: Ho
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001753:Blast Injuries / Q000150:complications*; D009033:Culicidae / Q000821:virology*; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D005107:Explosions; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D055904:Meteorology; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors