title: Complex Dynamical Behaviour in an Epidemic Model with Control.
abstract: We analyse the dynamical behaviour of a simple, widely used model that integrates epidemiological dynamics with disease control and economic constraint on the control resources. We consider both the deterministic model and its stochastic counterpart. Despite its simplicity, the model exhibits mathematically rich dynamics, including multiple stable fixed points and stable limit cycles arising from global bifurcations. We show that the existence of the limit cycles in the deterministic model has important consequences in modelling the range of potential effects the control can have. The stochastic effects further interact with the deterministic dynamical structure by facilitating transitions between different attractors of the system. The interaction is important for the predictive power of the model and in using the model to optimize allocation when resources for control are limited. We conclude that when studying models with constrained control, special care should be given to the dynamical behaviour of the system and its interplay with stochastic effects.
authors.affiliation: University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. mv320@cam.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vyska
authors.affiliation: University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Gilligan
mesh_terms: D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013269:Stochastic Processes
keywords: Bifurcations in epidemic models; Control of epidemics; Disease dynamics modelling