title: Middle age self-report risk score predicts cognitive functioning and dementia in 20-40 years.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  On the basis of the proxy measures of cognitive reserve, we created a middle age self-report risk score for early prediction of dementia.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used a longitudinal population-based study of 2602 individuals with a replication sample (N = 1011). Risk score at a mean age of 47 years was based on questions on educational and occupational attainments. Cognitive status at a mean age of 74 was determined via two validated telephone instruments.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of dementia was 10% after a mean follow-up of 28 years. Risk score was a good predictor of dementia: area under the curve = 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.80). The risk of dementia decreased as a function of risk score from 36% to 0%. The risk score was significantly associated with cognition after a mean follow-up of 39 years in the replication sample.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Self-report risk score predicted cognitive functioning and dementia risk 20-40 years later.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Clinicum, Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Eero
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Vuoksimaa
authors.affiliation: Turku PET Centre, University of Turku, Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland; Division of Clinical Neurosciences, Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland.
authors.forename: Juha O
authors.initials: JO
authors.lastname: Rinne
authors.affiliation: Turku PET Centre, University of Turku, Turku University Hospital, Turku, Finland; Drug Research Doctoral Program, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
authors.forename: Noora
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Lindgren
authors.affiliation: Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Kauko
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Heikkilä
authors.affiliation: Clinicum, Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Markku
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Koskenvuo
authors.affiliation: Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Clinicum, Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Jaakko
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kaprio
keywords: Cognitive reserve; Dementia; Early identification; Education; Middle age; Occupation; Risk score; Twins