title: Validation of prognostic scores for clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding.
abstract: Background. The Rockall, Glasgow-Blatchford, and AIMS65 are useful and validated scoring systems for predicting the outcomes of patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding. However, there are no validated evidence for using them to predict outcomes on variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the prognostic accuracy of different nonvariceal bleeding scores with other liver-specific scoring systems in cirrhotic patients.
  
  
  
  A retrospective multicenter study that included 160 cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. The AUROC's to predict in-hospital mortality, and rebleeding, were analyzed for each scoring system.
  
  
  
  Overall in-hospital mortality occurred in 13% and in-hospital rebleeding in 12% of patients. The systems with the best AUROC value for predicting mortality were MELD (0.828; 95% CI 0.748-0.909), and AIMS65 (0.817; 95% CI 0.724-0.909). The best score systems for predicting rebleeding were Glasgow-Blatchford (0.756; 95% CI 0.640- 0.827), and Rockall (0.691; 95% CI 0.580-0.802).
  
  
  
  In addition to liver-specific scores, the AIMS65 score is accurate for predicting in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. Other scoring systems might be useful for predicting significant clinical outcomes in these patients.
authors.affiliation: Obesity and Digestive Diseases Unit, Medica Sur Clinic & Foundation, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Miguel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Motola-Kuba
authors.affiliation: Obesity and Digestive Diseases Unit, Medica Sur Clinic & Foundation, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Angélica
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Escobedo-Arzate
authors.affiliation: Endoscopy Department Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Félix
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Tellez-Avila
authors.affiliation: Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August-Pi-Sunyer (IDIBAPS) Hospital Clínic, University of Barcelona. Vall d'Hebron Institut de Recerca, Liver Unit- Internal Medicine Department. Hospital Vall d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: José
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Altamirano
authors.affiliation: Obesity and Digestive Diseases Unit, Medica Sur Clinic & Foundation, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Nancy
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Aguilar-Olivos
authors.affiliation: Gastroenterology Unit, Hospital Juárez de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: González-Angulo
authors.affiliation: Gastroenterology Unit, Hospital Juárez de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Felipe
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zamarripa-Dorsey
authors.affiliation: Obesity and Digestive Diseases Unit, Medica Sur Clinic & Foundation, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Misael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Uribe
authors.affiliation: Obesity and Digestive Diseases Unit, Medica Sur Clinic & Foundation, Mexico City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Norberto C
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Chávez-Tapia
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008800:Mexico; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012008:Recurrence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors