title: Climate change and the ash dieback crisis.
abstract: Beyond the direct influence of climate change on species distribution and phenology, indirect effects may also arise from perturbations in species interactions. Infectious diseases are strong biotic forces that can precipitate population declines and lead to biodiversity loss. It has been shown in forest ecosystems worldwide that at least 10% of trees are vulnerable to extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated. In Europe, the emerging ash dieback disease caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, commonly called Chalara fraxinea, is causing a severe mortality of common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior); this is raising concerns for the persistence of this widespread tree, which is both a key component of forest ecosystems and economically important for timber production. Here, we show how the pathogen and climate change may interact to affect the future spatial distribution of the common ash. Using two presence-only models, seven General Circulation Models and four emission scenarios, we show that climate change, by affecting the host and the pathogen separately, may uncouple their spatial distribution to create a mismatch in species interaction and so a lowering of disease transmission. Consequently, as climate change expands the ranges of both species polewards it may alleviate the ash dieback crisis in southern and occidental regions at the same time.
authors.affiliation: Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 8198, Evo-Eco-Paleo, F-59 000 Lille, France.|CNRS, Univ. Lille, Univ. Littoral Côte d'Opale, UMR 8187, LOG, Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences, F-62 930 Wimereux, France.|Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Goberville
authors.affiliation: Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 8198, Evo-Eco-Paleo, F-59 000 Lille, France.
authors.forename: Nina-Coralie
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Hautekèete
authors.affiliation: Marine Biological Association, Citadel Hill, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: Richard R
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Kirby
authors.affiliation: Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 8198, Evo-Eco-Paleo, F-59 000 Lille, France.
authors.forename: Yves
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Piquot
authors.affiliation: CNRS, Univ. Lille, Univ. Littoral Côte d'Opale, UMR 8187, LOG, Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences, F-62 930 Wimereux, France.|Université d'Artois, ESPE, Centre de Gravelines, 40 rue Victor Hugo - BP 129, 59820 Gravelines, France.
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Luczak
authors.affiliation: CNRS, Univ. Lille, Univ. Littoral Côte d'Opale, UMR 8187, LOG, Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences, F-62 930 Wimereux, France.|Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, The Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK.
authors.forename: Grégory
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Beaugrand
mesh_terms: D001203:Ascomycota / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D057231:Climate Change; D031661:Fraxinus / Q000254:growth & development / Q000382:microbiology*; D010935:Plant Diseases / Q000382:microbiology*