title: Birth Month and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Association: Is meaningfulness in the eye of the beholder?
abstract: In the modern era, with high-throughput technology and large data size, associational studies are actively being generated. Some have statistical and clinical validity and utility, or at least have biologically plausible relationships, while others may not. Recently, the potential effect of birth month on lifetime disease risks has been studied in a phenome-wide model. We evaluated the associations between birth month and 5 cardiovascular disease-related outcomes in an independent registry of 8,346 patients from Ontario, Canada in 1977-2014. We used descriptive statistics and logistic regression, along with model-fit and discrimination statistics. Hypertension and coronary heart disease (of primary interest) were most prevalent in those who were born in January and April, respectively, as observed in the previous study. Other outcomes showed weak or opposite associations. Ancillary analyses (based on raw blood pressures and subgroup analyses by sex) demonstrated inconsistent patterns and high randomness. Our study was based on a high risk population and could not provide scientific explanations. As scientific values and clinical implications can be different, readers are encouraged to read the original and our papers together for more objective interpretations of the potential impact of birth month on individual and public health as well as toward cumulative/total evidence in general.
authors.affiliation: Graduate Group in Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Eduard
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Poltavskiy
authors.affiliation: Stroke Prevention & Atherosclerosis Research Centre, Robarts Research Institute, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: J David
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Spence
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul Sacred Heart General Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Jeehyoung
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Graduate Group in Epidemiology, University of California, Davis, CA,USA; Division of Biostatistics, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA,USA.
authors.forename: Heejung
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Bang
keywords: birth month; cardiovascular disease; electronic medical record