title: Is Decoupling GDP Growth from Environmental Impact Possible?
abstract: The argument that human society can decouple economic growth-defined as growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-from growth in environmental impacts is appealing. If such decoupling is possible, it means that GDP growth is a sustainable societal goal. Here we show that the decoupling concept can be interpreted using an easily understood model of economic growth and environmental impact. The simple model is compared to historical data and modelled projections to demonstrate that growth in GDP ultimately cannot be decoupled from growth in material and energy use. It is therefore misleading to develop growth-oriented policy around the expectation that decoupling is possible. We also note that GDP is increasingly seen as a poor proxy for societal wellbeing. GDP growth is therefore a questionable societal goal. Society can sustainably improve wellbeing, including the wellbeing of its natural assets, but only by discarding GDP growth as the goal in favor of more comprehensive measures of societal wellbeing.
authors.affiliation: School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, GPO Box 2471, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia.
authors.forename: James D
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4847-841X
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Ward
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Denver, Denver, Colorado, 80208, United States of America.
authors.forename: Paul C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: Sutton
authors.affiliation: School of the Environment and National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia.
authors.forename: Adrian D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Werner
authors.affiliation: Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT, 2601, Australia.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Costanza
authors.affiliation: Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW, 2007, Australia.
authors.forename: Steve H
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Mohr
authors.affiliation: School of the Environment and National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Flinders University, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia.
authors.forename: Craig T
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Simmons
mesh_terms: D057217:Economic Development; D004777:Environment; D059066:Gross Domestic Product; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical