title: Did the 1918 influenza cause the twentieth century cardiovascular mortality epidemic in the United States?
abstract: During most of the twentieth century, cardiovascular mortality increased in the United States while other causes of death declined. By 1958, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for cardiovascular causes for females was 1.84 times that for all other causes,combined(and, for males, 1.79×). Although contemporary observers believed that cardiovascular mortality would remain high, the late 1950s and early 1960s turned out to be the peak of a roughly 70-year epidemic. By 1988 for females (1986 for males), a spectacular decline had occurred, wherein the ASDR for cardiovascular causes was less than that for other causes combined. We discuss this phenomenon from a demographic point of view. We also test a hypothesis from the literature, that the 1918 influenza pandemic caused the cardiovascular mortality epidemic; we fail to find support.
authors.affiliation: Pritzker School of Medicine, University of Chicago , Chicago , IL , United States.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tate
authors.affiliation: Program in Public Health, University of California , Irvine , CA , United States.
authors.forename: Jamie J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Namkung
authors.affiliation: Department of Population Health and Disease Prevention, University of California , Irvine , CA , United States.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Noymer
keywords: Demography; Epidemiology; Heart disease; Influenza; Public health