title: Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.
abstract: Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum.
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.|Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Vendela K
authors.initials: VK
authors.lastname: Lagerholm
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.|Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.|Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, México.
authors.forename: Edson
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Sandoval-Castellanos
authors.affiliation: Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
authors.forename: Amélie
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Vaniscotte
authors.affiliation: Mammoth Site of Hot Springs, SD, Inc., Hot Springs, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Olga R
authors.initials: OR
authors.lastname: Potapova
authors.affiliation: Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.
authors.forename: Teresa
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tomek
authors.affiliation: Institute of Systematics and Evolution of Animals, Polish Academy of Sciences, Kraków, Poland.
authors.forename: Zbigniew M
authors.initials: ZM
authors.lastname: Bochenski
authors.affiliation: British Geological Survey, Nottingham, UK.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Shepherd
authors.affiliation: Institute of Archaeology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Barton
authors.affiliation: Institute for the Analysis of Change in Contemporary and Historical Societies, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
authors.forename: Marie-Claire
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Van Dyck
authors.affiliation: Service of Prehistory, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.
authors.forename: Rebecca
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Miller
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology Centre, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Jacob
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Höglund
authors.affiliation: Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
authors.forename: Nigel G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Yoccoz
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Love
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Dalén
authors.affiliation: School of Applied Sciences, Bournemouth University, Dorset House, Talbot Campus, Poole, UK.
authors.forename: John R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Stewart
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000235:genetics*; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003080:Cold Temperature; D000072441:DNA, Ancient; D017753:Ecosystem; D005060:Europe
chemical_list: D000072441:DNA, Ancient
keywords: 
  Lagopus
  ; Pleistocene; approximate Bayesian computation; climate change; colonization; extinction; palaeogenetics; phylogeography; species distribution modelling