title: Modelling Drug Abuse Epidemics in the Presence of Limited Rehabilitation Capacity.
abstract: The abuse of drugs is now an epidemic globally whose control has been mainly through rehabilitation. The demand for drug abuse rehabilitation has not been matched with the available capacity resulting in limited placement of addicts into rehabilitation. In this paper, we model limited rehabilitation through the Hill function incorporated into a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Not every member of the community is equally likely to embark on drug use, risk structure is included to help differentiate those more likely (high risk) to abuse drugs and those less likely (low risk) to abuse drugs. It is shown that the model has multiple equilibria, and using the centre manifold theory, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation whose implications to rehabilitation are discussed. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations are performed. The results show that saturation in rehabilitation will in the long run lead to the escalation of drug abuse. This means that limited access to rehabilitation has negative implications in the fight against drug abuse where rehabilitation is the main form of control. This suggests that increased access to rehabilitation is likely to lower the drug abuse epidemic.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Zimbabwe, Box MP 167, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe. mushanyuj@gmail.com.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mushanyu
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Stellenbosch University, P. Bag X1, Matieland, 7602, South Africa.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Nyabadza
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Zimbabwe, Box MP 167, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Muchatibaya
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Zimbabwe, Box MP 167, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe.
authors.forename: A G R
authors.initials: AGR
authors.lastname: Stewart
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D012307:Risk Factors; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000534:rehabilitation*
keywords: Drug abuse; Hill function; Rehabilitation capacity; Reproduction number