title: Assessing the sustainability of African lion trophy hunting, with recommendations for policy.
abstract: While trophy hunting provides revenue for conservation, it must be carefully managed to avoid negative population impacts, particularly for long-lived species with low natural mortality rates. Trophy hunting has had negative effects on lion populations throughout Africa, and the species serves as an important case study to consider the balance of costs and benefits, and to consider the effectiveness of alternative strategies to conserve exploited species. Age-restricted harvesting is widely recommended to mitigate negative effects of lion hunting, but this recommendation was based on a population model parameterized with data from a well-protected and growing lion population. Here, we used demographic data from lions subject to more typical conditions, including source-sink dynamics between a protected National Park and adjacent hunting areas in Zambia's Luangwa Valley, to develop a stochastic population projection model and evaluate alternative harvest scenarios. Hunting resulted in population declines over a 25-yr period for all continuous harvest strategies, with large declines for quotas >1 lion/concession (~0.5 lion/1,000 km2) and hunting of males younger than seven years. A strategy that combined periods of recovery, an age limit of ≥7 yr, and a maximum quota of ~0.5 lions shot/1,000 km2yielded a risk of extirpation <10%. Our analysis incorporated the effects of human encroachment, poaching, and prey depletion on survival, but assumed that these problems will not increase, which is unlikely. These results suggest conservative management of lion trophy hunting with a combination of regulations. To implement sustainable trophy hunting while maintaining revenue for conservation of hunting areas, our results suggest that hunting fees must increase as a consequence of diminished supply. These findings are broadly applicable to hunted lion populations throughout Africa and to inform global efforts to conserve exploited carnivore populations.
authors.affiliation: Zambian Carnivore Programme, P.O. Box 80, Mfuwe, Eastern Province, Zambia. screel@montana.edu.|Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, 59717, USA. screel@montana.edu.
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Creel
authors.affiliation: Department of National Parks and Wildlife, Ecology Section, Private Bag 1, Kafue Road, Chilanga, Zambia.
authors.forename: Jassiel
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: M'soka
authors.affiliation: Zambian Carnivore Programme, P.O. Box 80, Mfuwe, Eastern Province, Zambia.|Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, 59717, USA.
authors.forename: Egil
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Dröge
authors.affiliation: Zambian Carnivore Programme, P.O. Box 80, Mfuwe, Eastern Province, Zambia.|Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, 59717, USA.
authors.forename: Eli
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Rosenblatt
authors.affiliation: Zambian Carnivore Programme, P.O. Box 80, Mfuwe, Eastern Province, Zambia.|Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, 59717, USA.
authors.forename: Matthew S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Becker
authors.affiliation: Zambian Carnivore Programme, P.O. Box 80, Mfuwe, Eastern Province, Zambia.|Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, 59717, USA.
authors.forename: Wigganson
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Matandiko
authors.affiliation: Department of National Parks and Wildlife, South Luangwa National Park, P.O. Box 18, Mfuwe, Zambia.
authors.forename: Twakundine
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Simpamba
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D033161:Government Regulation; D008004:Licensure; D008045:Lions; D008297:Male; D011155:Population Control; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: 
  Panthera leo
  ; carnivore; extinction risk; population dynamics; trophy hunting