title: Climate Shocks and the Timing of Migration from Mexico.
abstract: Although evidence is increasing that climate shocks influence human migration, it is unclear exactly when people migrate after a climate shock. A climate shock might be followed by an immediate migration response. Alternatively, migration, as an adaptive strategy of last resort, might be delayed and employed only after availablein-situ(in-place) adaptive strategies are exhausted. In this paper, we explore the temporally lagged association between a climate shock and future migration. Using multilevel event-history models, we analyze the risk of Mexico-U.S. migration over a seven-year period after a climate shock. Consistent with a delayed response pattern, we find that the risk of migration is low immediately after a climate shock and increases as households pursue and cycle throughin-situadaptive strategies available to them. However, about three years after the climate shock, the risk of migration decreases, suggesting that households are eventually successful in adaptingin-situ.
authors: University of Minnesota, Minnesota Population Center, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN 55455, U.S.A.
authors: Raphael J
authors: RJ
authors: Nawrotzki
authors: University of Minnesota, Department of Sociology & Minnesota Population Center, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN 55455, U.S.A., jdewaard@umn.edu.
authors: Jack
authors: J
authors: DeWaard
keywords: Adaptation; Climate; Migration; Response pattern; Rural Mexico; Timing