title: A New Approach of Juvenile Age Estimation using Measurements of the Ilium and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) Models for Better Age Prediction.
abstract: Juvenile age estimation methods used in forensic anthropology generally lack methodological consistency and/or statistical validity. Considering this, a standard approach using nonparametric Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) models were tested to predict age from iliac biometric variables of male and female juveniles from Marseilles, France, aged 0-12 years. Models using unidimensional (length and width) and bidimensional iliac data (module and surface) were constructed on a training sample of 176 individuals and validated on an independent test sample of 68 individuals. Results show that MARS prediction models using iliac width, module and area give overall better and statistically valid age estimates. These models integrate punctual nonlinearities of the relationship between age and osteometric variables. By constructing valid prediction intervals whose size increases with age, MARS models take into account the normal increase of individual variability. MARS models can qualify as a practical and standardized approach for juvenile age estimation.
authors: UMR 7268 ADES - Aix-Marseille Université - EFS - CNRS, Faculté de Médecine de Marseille Secteur Nord, 51 Boulevard Pierre Dramard, Marseille Cedex 15, 13344, France.
authors: Louise
authors: L
authors: Corron
authors: UMR 7268 ADES - Aix-Marseille Université - EFS - CNRS, Faculté de Médecine de Marseille Secteur Nord, 51 Boulevard Pierre Dramard, Marseille Cedex 15, 13344, France.
authors: François
authors: F
authors: Marchal
authors: UMR 7268 ADES - Aix-Marseille Université - EFS - CNRS, Faculté de Médecine de Marseille Secteur Nord, 51 Boulevard Pierre Dramard, Marseille Cedex 15, 13344, France.
authors: Silvana
authors: S
authors: Condemi
authors: UMR 7268 ADES - Aix-Marseille Université - EFS - CNRS, Faculté de Médecine de Marseille Secteur Nord, 51 Boulevard Pierre Dramard, Marseille Cedex 15, 13344, France.|Service de Radiologie et Imagerie Médicale, CHU Nord, Assistance Publique des Hôpitaux de Marseille, Chemin des Bourrely, Marseille Cedex 20, 13915, France.
authors: Kathia
authors: K
authors: Chaumoître
authors: UMR 7268 ADES - Aix-Marseille Université - EFS - CNRS, Faculté de Médecine de Marseille Secteur Nord, 51 Boulevard Pierre Dramard, Marseille Cedex 15, 13344, France.
authors: Pascal
authors: P
authors: Adalian
mesh_terms: D000365:Age Determination by Skeleton / Q000379:methods*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D018732:Forensic Anthropology; D006801:Humans; D007085:Ilium / Q000033:anatomy & histology* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D021621:Imaging, Three-Dimensional; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D015588:Observer Variation; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed
keywords: MARS models; anthropology; biometrics; forensic science; ilium; juvenile age estimation