title: Comparison of incubation period distribution of human infections with MERS-CoV in South Korea and Saudi Arabia.
abstract: The incubation period is an important epidemiologic distribution, it is often incorporated in case definitions, used to determine appropriate quarantine periods, and is an input to mathematical modeling studies. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS) is an emerging infectious disease in the Arabian Peninsula. There was a large outbreak of MERS in South Korea in 2015. We examined the incubation period distribution of MERS coronavirus infection for cases in South Korea and in Saudi Arabia. Using parametric and nonparametric methods, we estimated a mean incubation period of 6.9 days (95% credibility interval: 6.3-7.5) for cases in South Korea and 5.0 days (95% credibility interval: 4.0-6.6) among cases in Saudi Arabia. In a log-linear regression model, the mean incubation period was 1.42 times longer (95% credibility interval: 1.18-1.71) among cases in South Korea compared to Saudi Arabia. The variation that we identified in the incubation period distribution between locations could be associated with differences in ascertainment or reporting of exposure dates and illness onset dates, differences in the source or mode of infection, or environmental differences.
authors: Department of Biology, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, Lyon, France.|WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.|Cancer Research Center of Lyon, UMR Inserm U1052, CNRS 5286, Lyon, France.
authors: Victor
authors: V
authors: Virlogeux
authors: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
authors: Vicky J
authors: VJ
authors: Fang
authors: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
authors: Minah
authors: M
authors: Park
authors: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
authors: Joseph T
authors: JT
authors: Wu
authors: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
authors: Benjamin J
authors: BJ
authors: Cowling
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D018352:Coronavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D055256:Infectious Disease Incubation Period; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D065207:Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D012529:Saudi Arabia / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult