title: Environmental Niche Modelling of Phlebotomine Sand Flies and Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Identifies Lutzomyia intermedia as the Main Vector Species in Southeastern Brazil.
abstract: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is caused by a protozoan of the genus Leishmania and is transmitted by sand flies. The state of Espírito Santo (ES), an endemic area in southeast Brazil, has shown a considerably high prevalence in recent decades. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) is a useful tool for predicting potential disease risk. In this study, ENM was applied to sand fly species and CL cases in ES to identify the principal vector and risk areas of the disease. Sand flies were collected in 466 rural localities between 1997 and 2013 using active and passive capture. Insects were identified to the species level, and the localities were georeferenced. Twenty-one bioclimatic variables were selected from WorldClim. Maxent was used to construct models projecting the potential distribution for five Lutzomyia species and CL cases. ENMTools was used to overlap the species and the CL case models. The Kruskal-Wallis test was performed, adopting a 5% significance level. Approximately 250,000 specimens were captured, belonging to 43 species. The area under the curve (AUC) was considered acceptable for all models. The slope was considered relevant to the construction of the models for all the species identified. The overlay test identified Lutzomyia intermedia as the main vector of CL in southeast Brazil. ENM tools enable an analysis of the association among environmental variables, vector distributions and CL cases, which can be used to support epidemiologic and entomological vigilance actions to control the expansion of CL in vulnerable areas.
authors: Tropical Medicine Unit, Department of Pathology, Federal University of Espírito Santo (Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo), Vitória, ES, Brazil.
authors: Viviane Coutinho
authors: VC
authors: Meneguzzi
authors: Nucleus of Entomology and Malacology (Núcleo de Entomologia e Malacologia) of the Espirito Santo State Health Secretariat, Serra, ES, Brazil.
authors: Claudiney Biral Dos
authors: CB
authors: Santos
authors: Tropical Medicine Unit, Department of Pathology, Federal University of Espírito Santo (Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo), Vitória, ES, Brazil.
authors: Gustavo Rocha
authors: GR
authors: Leite
authors: Tropical Medicine Unit, Department of Pathology, Federal University of Espírito Santo (Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo), Vitória, ES, Brazil.
authors: Blima
authors: B
authors: Fux
authors: Tropical Medicine Unit, Department of Social Medicine, Federal University of Espírito Santo (Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo), Vitória, ES, Brazil.
authors: Aloísio
authors: A
authors: Falqueto
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil; D055669:Ecological and Environmental Phenomena; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology*; D016773:Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011576:Psychodidae / Q000502:physiology*