title: Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand.
abstract: Global climate change is now regarded as imposing a significant threat of enhancing transmission of parasitic diseases. Maximum entropy species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) was used to explore how projected climate change could affect the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand. A range of climate variables was used: the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) climate change model and also the IPCC scenarios A2a for 2050 and 2070. Occurrence data from surveys conducted in 2009 and 2014 were obtained from the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. The MaxEnt model performed better than random for O. viverrini with training AUC values greater than 0.8 under current and future climatic conditions. The current distribution of O. viverrini is significantly affected by precipitation and minimum temperature. According to current conditions, parts of Thailand climatically suitable for O. viverrini are mostly in the northeast and north, but the parasite is largely absent from southern Thailand. Under future climate change scenarios, the distribution of O. viverrini in 2050 should be significantly affected by precipitation, maximum temperature, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, whereas in 2070, significant factors are likely to be precipitation during the coldest quarter, maximum, and minimum temperatures. Maps of predicted future distribution revealed a drastic decrease in presence of O. viverrini in the northeast region. The information gained from this study should be a useful reference for implementing long-term prevention and control strategies for O. viverrini in Thailand.
authors: Food-Borne Parasite Research Group, Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen Province, 40002, Thailand.
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Suwannatrai
authors: Food-Borne Parasite Research Group, Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen Province, 40002, Thailand.
authors: K
authors: K
authors: Pratumchart
authors: Food-Borne Parasite Research Group, Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen Province, 40002, Thailand.
authors: K
authors: K
authors: Suwannatrai
authors: Data Management and Statistical Analysis Center, Faculty of Public Health, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen Province, 40002, Thailand.
authors: K
authors: K
authors: Thinkhamrop
authors: Food-Borne Parasite Research Group, Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen Province, 40002, Thailand.
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Chaiyos
authors: Data Management and Statistical Analysis Center, Faculty of Public Health, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen Province, 40002, Thailand.
authors: C S
authors: CS
authors: Kim
authors: Regional Centre for Geo-Informatics and Space Technology, Northeast Thailand, Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Sciences, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen Province, 40002, Thailand.
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Suwanweerakamtorn
authors: Food-Borne Parasite Research Group, Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen Province, 40002, Thailand.
authors: T
authors: T
authors: Boonmars
authors: Bureau of General Communicable Diseases, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, 11000, Thailand.
authors: T
authors: T
authors: Wongsaroj
authors: WHO Collaborating Centre for Research and Control of Opisthorchiasis (Southeast Asian Liver Fluke Disease), Tropical Disease Research Laboratory, Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen Province, 40002, Thailand. banchob@kku.ac.th.
authors: B
authors: B
authors: Sripa
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D008954:Models, Biological; D009891:Opisthorchis / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D013696:Temperature; D013785:Thailand
keywords: Climate change; Distribution; MaxEnt; Modeling; Opisthorchis viverrini; Thailand