title: Forecasting Urban Forest Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Vulnerability.
abstract: The benefits derived from urban forest ecosystems are garnering increasing attention in ecological research and municipal planning. However, because of their location in heterogeneous and highly-altered urban landscapes, urban forests are vulnerable and commonly suffer disproportionate and varying levels of stress and disturbance. The objective of this study is to assess and analyze the spatial and temporal changes, and potential vulnerability, of the urban forest resource in Toronto, Canada. This research was conducted using a spatially-explicit, indicator-based assessment of vulnerability and i-Tree Forecast modeling of temporal changes in forest structure and function. Nine scenarios were simulated for 45 years and model output was analyzed at the ecosystem and municipal scale. Substantial mismatches in ecological processes between spatial scales were found, which can translate into unanticipated loss of function and social inequities if not accounted for in planning and management. At the municipal scale, the effects of Asian longhorned beetle and ice storm disturbance were far less influential on structure and function than changes in management actions. The strategic goals of removing invasive species and increasing tree planting resulted in a decline in carbon storage and leaf biomass. Introducing vulnerability parameters in the modeling increased the spatial heterogeneity in structure and function while expanding the disparities of resident access to ecosystem services. There was often a variable and uncertain relationship between vulnerability and ecosystem structure and function. Vulnerability assessment and analysis can provide strategic planning initiatives with valuable insight into the processes of structural and functional change resulting from management intervention.
authors: Environmental Applied Science and Management, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada. james.steenberg@ryerson.ca.|Urban Forest Research & Ecological Disturbance (UFRED) Group, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada. james.steenberg@ryerson.ca.
authors: James W N
authors: JW
authors: Steenberg
authors: Urban Forest Research & Ecological Disturbance (UFRED) Group, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada.
authors: Andrew A
authors: AA
authors: Millward
authors: Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 5 Moon Library, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA.
authors: David J
authors: DJ
authors: Nowak
authors: School of Urban and Regional Planning, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada.
authors: Pamela J
authors: PJ
authors: Robinson
authors: Davey Institute, 5 Moon Library, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY, 13210, USA.
authors: Alexis
authors: A
authors: Ellis
mesh_terms: D018533:Biomass; D002170:Canada; D002244:Carbon / Q000032:analysis; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D016468:Forestry / Q000379:methods*; D065928:Forests; D058865:Introduced Species; D018515:Plant Leaves; D014197:Trees / Q000737:chemistry / Q000254:growth & development*; D014507:Urbanization
chemical_list: D002244:Carbon
keywords: Disturbance; Ecological modeling; Scale; Strategic planning; Vulnerability assessment; i-Tree forecast