title: A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling.
  
  
  METHODS
  In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.
authors: Guilan Road Trauma Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, IR Iran.
authors: Shahrokh
authors: S
authors: Yousefzadeh-Chabok
authors: Guilan Road Trauma Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, IR Iran.
authors: Fatemeh
authors: F
authors: Ranjbar-Taklimie
authors: Guilan Road Trauma Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, IR Iran.
authors: Reza
authors: R
authors: Malekpouri
authors: Guilan Road Trauma Research Center, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, IR Iran.
authors: Alireza
authors: A
authors: Razzaghi
keywords: Forecasting; Mortality; Traffic Accidents; Trends