title: Ecological niche modeling for conservation planning of an endemic snail in the verge of becoming a pest in cardamom plantations in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot.
abstract: Conservation managers and policy makers are often confronted with a challenging dilemma of devising suitable strategies to maintain agricultural productivity while conserving endemic species that at the early stages of becoming pests of agricultural crops. Identification of environmental factors conducive to species range expansion for forecasting species distribution patterns will play a central role in devising management strategies to minimize the conflict between the agricultural productivity and biodiversity conservation. Here, we present results of a study that predicts the distribution ofIndrella ampulla, a snail endemic to the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot, which is becoming a pest in cardamom (Ellettaria cardamomum) plantations. We determined the distribution patterns and niche overlap betweenI. ampullaandEllettaria cardamomumusing maximum entropy (MaxEnt) niche modeling techniques under current and future (2020-2080) climatic scenarios. The results showed that climatic (precipitation of coldest quarter and isothermality) and soil (cation exchange capacity of soil [CEC]) parameters are major factors that determine the distribution ofI. ampullain Western Ghats. The model predicted cardamom cultivation areas in southern Western Ghats are highly sensitive to invasion ofI. ampullaunder both present and future climatic conditions. While the land area in the central Western Ghats is predicted to become unsuitable forI. ampullaandEllettaria cardamomumin future, we found 71% of the Western Ghats land area is suitable forEllettaria cardamomumcultivation and 45% suitable forI. ampulla, with an overlap of 35% between two species. The resulting distribution maps are invaluable for policy makers and conservation managers to design and implement management strategies minimizing the conflicts to sustain agricultural productivity while maintaining biodiversity in the region.
authors: Suri Sehgal Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment Royal Enclave Srirampura Bangalore Karnataka 560064 India; Manipal University Manipal Karnataka 576504 India.
authors: Sandeep
authors: S
authors: Sen
authors: Department of Biology Concordia University Sherbrooke Street West Montreal Quebec H4B 1R6 Canada; Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science Montreal Quebec H3A 1B1 Canada.
authors: Kadukothanahally Nagaraju
authors: KN
authors: Shivaprakash
authors: Suri Sehgal Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment Royal Enclave Srirampura Bangalore Karnataka 560064 India.
authors: Neelavara A
authors: NA
authors: Aravind
authors: Suri Sehgal Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment Royal Enclave Srirampura Bangalore Karnataka 560064 India; School of Ecology and Conservation University of Agricultural Sciences Hebbal Bangalore Karnataka 560063 India.
authors: Gudasalamani
authors: G
authors: Ravikanth
authors: Department of Biology Concordia University Sherbrooke Street West Montreal Quebec H4B 1R6 Canada; Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science Montreal Quebec H3A 1B1 Canada.
authors: Selvadurai
authors: S
authors: Dayanandan
keywords: Biological invasion; Elettaria cardamomum; Indrella ampulla; MIGCLIM; Western Ghats; endemic snail; niche overlap