title: Can unstructured clinical risk judgment have incremental validity in the prediction of recidivism in a non-Western juvenile context?
abstract: Research has consistently shown that actuarial measures are superior to unstructured clinical judgments in predicting recidivism of offenders. However, in a non-Western context, clinical judgment may capture contextually relevant risk-related factors. The purpose of the current research is to investigate the incremental value of clinical risk judgment in a sample of Japanese youths. With a sample of 299 released youths, the relative accuracy of the actuarial predictor (Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory [YLS/CMI]) and unstructured clinical judgment (recommendation of placement by psychologists) was examined. Results show that an unstructured clinical judgment failed to add incremental variance to the actuarial measure in the prediction of future offenses. The current study results are similar to other studies from North America. Possible reasons why unstructured risk judgment did not add incrementally to the actuarial assessment of risk are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record
authors: Department of Human Sciences, Konan Women's University.
authors: Takemi
authors: T
authors: Mori
authors: Research Department, Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Justice.
authors: Masaru
authors: M
authors: Takahashi
authors: Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Southern Illinois University Carbondale.
authors: Daryl G
authors: 0000-0003-3676-3395
authors: DG
authors: Kroner
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior; D057237:Criminals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008297:Male; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012307:Risk Factors