title: Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100.
abstract: Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.
authors: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; nlin@princeton.edu.
authors: Ning
authors: 0000-0002-5571-1606
authors: N
authors: Lin
authors: Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854; Rutgers Energy Institute, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854; Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901.
authors: Robert E
authors: 0000-0003-4016-9428
authors: RE
authors: Kopp
authors: Institute of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901; Department of Marine & Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798; Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798.
authors: Benjamin P
authors: BP
authors: Horton
authors: Coastal Systems Group, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543.
authors: Jeffrey P
authors: JP
authors: Donnelly
keywords: Hurricane Sandy; New York City; climate change; sea level rise; storm surge