title: Estimating Lion Abundance using N-mixture Models for Social Species.
abstract: Declining populations of large carnivores worldwide, and the complexities of managing human-carnivore conflicts, require accurate population estimates of large carnivores to promote their long-term persistence through well-informed management We used N-mixture models to estimate lion (Panthera leo) abundance from call-in and track surveys in southeastern Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. Because of potential habituation to broadcasted calls and social behavior, we developed a hierarchical observation process within the N-mixture model conditioning lion detectability on their group response to call-ins and individual detection probabilities. We estimated 270 lions (95% credible interval = 170-551) using call-ins but were unable to estimate lion abundance from track data. We found a weak negative relationship between predicted track density and predicted lion abundance from the call-in surveys. Luminosity was negatively correlated with individual detection probability during call-in surveys. Lion abundance and track density were influenced by landcover, but direction of the corresponding effects were undetermined. N-mixture models allowed us to incorporate multiple parameters (e.g., landcover, luminosity, observer effect) influencing lion abundance and probability of detection directly into abundance estimates. We suggest that N-mixture models employing a hierarchical observation process can be used to estimate abundance of other social, herding, and grouping species.
authors: Carnivore Ecology Laboratory, Forest and Wildlife Research Center, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi, United States of America.
authors: Jerrold L
authors: JL
authors: Belant
authors: Carnivore Ecology Laboratory, Forest and Wildlife Research Center, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi, United States of America.
authors: Florent
authors: F
authors: Bled
authors: Carnivore Ecology Laboratory, Forest and Wildlife Research Center, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi, United States of America.
authors: Clay M
authors: CM
authors: Wilton
authors: Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute, Arusha, United Republic of Tanzania.
authors: Robert
authors: R
authors: Fyumagwa
authors: Carnivore Ecology Laboratory, Forest and Wildlife Research Center, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, Mississippi, United States of America.
authors: Stanslaus B
authors: SB
authors: Mwampeta
authors: Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Marquette, Michigan, United States of America.
authors: Dean E
authors: DE
authors: Beyer
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008045:Lions; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013636:Tanzania