title: Predictors of new-onset depressive disorders - Results from the longitudinal Finnish Health 2011 Study.
abstract: Identifying risk factors for depression is important for understanding etiological mechanisms and targeting preventive efforts. No prior studies have compared risk factors of dysthymia and major depressive disorder (MDD) in a longitudinal setting.
  
  
  
  Predictors of new-onset MDD and dysthymia were examined in a longitudinal general population study (Health 2000 and 2011 Surveys, BRIF8901). 4057 persons free of depressive disorders at baseline were followed up for 11 years. DSM-IV MDD and dysthymia were diagnosed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview.
  
  
  
  126 persons (4.4%, 95%CI 3.6-5.2) were diagnosed with MDD or dysthymia at follow-up. Predictors of new-onset depressive disorders were younger age (adjusted OR 0.97, 95%CI 0.95-0.99 per year), female gender (aOR 1.46, 95%CI 1.01-2.12), multiple childhood adversities (aOR 1.76, 95%CI 1.10-2.83), low trust dimension of social capital (aOR 0.58, 95%CI 0.36-0.96 for high trust), baseline anxiety disorder (aOR 2.75, 95%CI 1.36-5.56), and baseline depressive symptoms (aOR 1.65, 95%CI 1.04-2.61 for moderate and aOR 2.49, 95%CI 1.20-5.17 for severe symptoms). Risk factors for MDD were younger age, female gender, anxiety disorder and depressive symptoms, whereas younger age, multiple childhood adversities, low trust, and having 1-2 somatic diseases predicted dysthymia.
  
  
  
  We only had one follow-up point at eleven years, and did not collect information on the subjects' health during the follow-up period.
  
  
  
  Persons with subclinical depressive symptoms, anxiety disorders, low trust, and multiple childhood adversities have a higher risk of depressive disorders. Predictors of MDD and dysthymia appear to differ. This information can be used to target preventive efforts and guide social policies.
authors: National Institute for Health and Welfare, Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services, Helsinki, Finland; Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile. Electronic address: niina.markkula@helsinki.fi.
authors: Niina
authors: N
authors: Markkula
authors: National Institute for Health and Welfare, Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services, Helsinki, Finland.
authors: Niko
authors: N
authors: Marola
authors: Statistics Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
authors: Tarja
authors: T
authors: Nieminen
authors: National Institute for Health and Welfare, Department of Health, Functional Capacity and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
authors: Seppo
authors: S
authors: Koskinen
authors: Turku University Hospital and the University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
authors: Samuli I
authors: SI
authors: Saarni
authors: National Institute for Health and Welfare, Department of Health, Functional Capacity and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
authors: Tommi
authors: T
authors: Härkänen
authors: National Institute for Health and Welfare, Department of Mental Health and Substance Abuse Services, Helsinki, Finland.
authors: Jaana
authors: J
authors: Suvisaari
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D001008:Anxiety Disorders / Q000150:complications; D003865:Major Depressive Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology*; D039721:Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; D019263:Dysthymic Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology*; D005260:Female; D005387:Finland; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors
keywords: Depressive disorders; Dysthymia; Epidemiology; General population; Major depressive disorder; Risk factors