Public Health Benefits from Livestock Rift Valley Fever Control: A Simulation of Two Epidemics in Kenya.
In controlling Rift Valley fever, public health sector optimises health benefits by considering cost-effective control options. We modelled cost-effectiveness of livestock RVF control from a public health perspective in Kenya. Analysis was limited to pastoral and agro-pastoral system high-risk areas, for a 10-year period incorporating two epidemics: 2006/2007 and a hypothetical one in 2014/2015. Four integrated strategies (baseline and alternatives), combined from three vaccination and two surveillance options, were compared. Baseline strategy included annual vaccination of 1.2-11% animals plus passive surveillance and monitoring of nine sentinel herds. Compared to the baseline, two alternatives assumed improved vaccination coverage. A herd dynamic RVF animal simulation model produced number of animals infected under each strategy. A second mathematical model implemented in R estimated number people who would be infected by the infected animals. The 2006/2007 RVF epidemic resulted in 3974 undiscounted, unweighted disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Improving vaccination coverage to 41-51% (2012) and 27-33% (2014) 3 years before the hypothetical 2014/2015 outbreak can avert close to 1200 DALYs. Improved vaccinations showed cost-effectiveness (CE) values of US$ 43-53 per DALY averted. The baseline practice is not cost-effective to the public health sector.
Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness, Egerton University, Njoro, Kenya. mugethikimani@yahoo.com.|International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya. mugethikimani@yahoo.com.
Tabitha
T
Kimani
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.|University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Esther
E
Schelling
International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
Bernard
B
Bett
Department of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness, Egerton University, Njoro, Kenya.
Margaret
M
Ngigi
International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
Tom
T
Randolph
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland.|University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Samuel
S
Fuhrimann
D000818:Animals; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D007630:Kenya; D058751:Livestock; D012295:Rift Valley Fever / Q000517:prevention & control*
Rift Valley fever; benefits; livestock; public health