Transmission tree of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) epidemic in Israel, 2015.
The transmission tree of the Israeli 2015 epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) was modelled by combining the spatio-temporal distribution of the outbreaks and the genetic distance between virus isolates. The most likely successions of transmission events were determined and transmission parameters were estimated. It was found that the median infectious pressure exerted at 1 km was 1.59 times (95% CI 1.04, 6.01) and 3.54 times (95% CI 1.09, 131.75) higher than that exerted at 2 and 5 km, respectively, and that three farms were responsible for all seven transmission events.
Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Production and Population Health, Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK. timotheevergne@yahoo.com.
Timothée
T
Vergne
Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Production and Population Health, Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK.
Guillaume
G
Fournié
Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Bet Dagan, Israel.
Michal Perry
MP
Markovich
Brain Mapping Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Rolf J F
RJ
Ypma
Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Bet Dagan, Israel.
Ram
R
Katz
Kimron Veterinary Institute, Bet Dagan, Israel.
Irena
I
Shkoda
Kimron Veterinary Institute, Bet Dagan, Israel.
Avishai
A
Lublin
Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Bet Dagan, Israel.
Shimon
S
Perk
Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Department of Production and Population Health, Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK.
Dirk U
DU
Pfeiffer
D000818:Animals; D058872:Epidemics / Q000662:veterinary*; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype / Q000502:physiology*; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D007557:Israel / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011201:Poultry Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D014422:Turkeys / Q000821:virology*