Long-term predictors of loneliness in old age: results of a 20-year national study.
OBJECTIVE
The understanding of social phenomena is enhanced if individuals can be studied over longer periods. Regarding loneliness in old age, there is a general lack of longitudinal research. The aim of this study was to examine whether there is an association between loneliness in old age and social engagement 20 years earlier, as stated by life course theory and the convoy model.


METHODS
Data from the nationally representative Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (2002 and 2011 data collection waves) and the Swedish Level of Living Survey (1981 and 1991 data collection waves) were used. The sample included 823 individuals with an average age of 62.2 years at baseline and 82.4 years at follow-up.


RESULTS
Each form of social engagement in old age was significantly associated with the same form of social engagement 20 years earlier. Close forms of social engagement were associated with loneliness in old age; as were more distant forms of social engagement, but only when they were considered solely in old age.


CONCLUSIONS
Patterns of social engagement in old age were established at least 20 years earlier and close forms of social engagement are long-term predictors of loneliness, although current social engagement tended to be more influential on loneliness. The study underlines the importance of interventions targeted at close relationships that can provide social support in old age.
a Aging Research Center , Karolinska Insitutet & Stockholm University , Stockholm , Sweden.|b School of Education, Health and Social Studies , Dalarna University , Falun , Sweden.
Lena
L
Dahlberg
c National Institute for the Study of Ageing and Later Life , Linköping University , Norrköping , Sweden.
Lars
L
Andersson
a Aging Research Center , Karolinska Insitutet & Stockholm University , Stockholm , Sweden.
Carin
C
Lennartsson
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007398:Interpersonal Relations; D008016:Life Change Events; D008132:Loneliness / Q000523:psychology*; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D010358:Patient Participation / Q000523:psychology; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012919:Social Behavior; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013548:Sweden
Loneliness; convoy model; life course; longitudinal; social factors