Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment.
The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk.
Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States.|Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States.|Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States.
Marc
0000-0003-1504-9213
M
Lipsitch
Division of Infectious Disease, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom.
Wendy
W
Barclay
Department of Biological Engineering, Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States.
Rahul
R
Raman
Department of Infectious Diseases, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, United States.
Charles J
CJ
Russell
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
Jessica A
JA
Belser
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States.
Sarah
S
Cobey
Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States.|Department of Molecular Physiology and Biological Physics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States.
Peter M
PM
Kasson
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States.|Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States.
James O
0000-0001-7941-502X
JO
Lloyd-Smith
Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore.|National Public Health Laboratory, Communicable Diseases Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore, Singapore.|School of Biological Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
Sebastian
S
Maurer-Stroh
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.|Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Steven
S
Riley
Department of Physics, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada.
Catherine Aa
0000-0003-0599-0069
CA
Beauchemin
Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, United States.
Trevor
T
Bedford
Department of Pathobiological Sciences, University of Wisconsin School of Veterinary Medicine, Madison, United States.
Thomas C
TC
Friedrich
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, United States.
Andreas
0000-0002-4622-1146
A
Handel
Department of Viroscience, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Sander
S
Herfst
MRC-University of Glasgow Centre For Virus Research, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Pablo R
0000-0002-4352-394X
PR
Murcia
IRD/UPMC UMMISCO, Montpellier, France.
Benjamin
B
Roche
Center for Computational Biology and Bioinformatics, Institute for Cellular and Molecular Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, United States.|Department of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, United States.
Claus O
0000-0002-7470-9261
CO
Wilke
Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Colin A
0000-0002-2113-162X
CA
Russell
D000818:Animals; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D019267:Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus / Q000235:genetics / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D009980:Influenza A virus / Q000235:genetics / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D058873:Pandemics; D012324:RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase / Q000235:genetics / Q000378:metabolism; D018570:Risk Assessment; D037521:Virulence Factors / Q000235:genetics / Q000378:metabolism; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*
D019267:Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus; D037521:Virulence Factors; D012324:RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase
epidemiology; global health; human; infectious disease; influenza A; microbiology; pandemic; risk prediction; virus