Implications of between-isolate variation for climate change impact modelling of Haemonchus contortus populations.
The impact of climate change on parasites and parasitic diseases is a growing concern and numerous empirical and mechanistic models have been developed to predict climate-driven spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of parasites and disease risk. Variation in parasite phenotype and life-history traits between isolates could undermine the application of such models at broad spatial scales. Seasonal variation in the transmission of the haematophagous gastrointestinal nematode Haemonchus contortus, one of the most pathogenic helminth species infecting sheep and goats worldwide, is primarily determined by the impact of environmental conditions on the free-living stages. To evaluate variability in the development success and mortality of the free-living stages of H. contortus and the impact of this variability on future climate impact modelling, three isolates of diverse origin were cultured at a range of temperatures between 15°C and 37°C to determine their development success compared with simulations using the GLOWORM-FL H. contortus model. No significant difference was observed in the developmental success of the three isolates of H. contortus tested, nor between isolates and model simulations. However, development success of all isolates at 37°C was lower than predicted by the model, suggesting the potential for overestimation of transmission risk at higher temperatures, such as those predicted under some scenarios of climate change. Recommendations are made for future climate impact modelling of gastrointestinal nematodes.
School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, 24 Tyndall Avenue, Bristol, BS8 1TQ, UK; School of Veterinary Sciences, University of Bristol, Langford House, Bristol, BS40 5DU, UK; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Cantocks Close, Bristol, BS8 1TS, UK. Electronic address: hannah.rose@bristol.ac.uk.
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Rose Vineer
Institut für Parasitologie, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 266a, CH-8057, Zürich, Switzerland.
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Steiner
Institut für Parasitologie und Tropenveterinärmedizin, Freie Universität Berlin, Robert-von-Ostertag-Str. 7-13, 14163 Berlin, Germany.
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Knapp-Lawitzke
School of Veterinary Sciences, University of Bristol, Langford House, Bristol, BS40 5DU, UK.
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Bull
Institut für Parasitologie und Tropenveterinärmedizin, Freie Universität Berlin, Robert-von-Ostertag-Str. 7-13, 14163 Berlin, Germany; Centro de Enseñanza Investigación y Extensión en Ganadería Tropical, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Km 5.5 Carretera Federal Tlapacoyan-Martínez de la Torre, C.P. 93600, Veracruz, Mexico.
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von Son-de Fernex
Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Productions, University of Naples Federico II, CREMOPAR Regione Campania, Naples, Italy.
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Bosco
Institut für Parasitologie, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 266a, CH-8057, Zürich, Switzerland.
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Hertzberg
Institut für Parasitologie und Tropenveterinärmedizin, Freie Universität Berlin, Robert-von-Ostertag-Str. 7-13, 14163 Berlin, Germany.
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Demeler
Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Productions, University of Naples Federico II, CREMOPAR Regione Campania, Naples, Italy.
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Rinaldi
Moredun Research Institute, Pentlands Science Park, Bush Loan, Penicuik, Scotland EH26 0PZ, UK.
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Morrison
Moredun Research Institute, Pentlands Science Park, Bush Loan, Penicuik, Scotland EH26 0PZ, UK.
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Skuce
Moredun Research Institute, Pentlands Science Park, Bush Loan, Penicuik, Scotland EH26 0PZ, UK.
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Bartley
School of Veterinary Sciences, University of Bristol, Langford House, Bristol, BS40 5DU, UK; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Cantocks Close, Bristol, BS8 1TS, UK.
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Morgan
D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D015511:Goat Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000469:parasitology; D006041:Goats; D006188:Haemonchiasis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000469:parasitology / Q000662:veterinary*; D006189:Haemonchus / Q000145:classification / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012621:Seasons; D012756:Sheep; D012757:Sheep Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000469:parasitology
Climate impact modelling; Development success; Gastrointestinal nematode; Haemonchus contortus; Local adaptation; Temperature; Trait variation