A Deterministic Model to Quantify Risk and Guide Mitigation Strategies to Reduce Bluetongue Virus Transmission in California Dairy Cattle.
The global distribution of bluetongue virus (BTV) has been changing recently, perhaps as a result of climate change. To evaluate the risk of BTV infection and transmission in a BTV-endemic region of California, sentinel dairy cows were evaluated for BTV infection, and populations of Culicoides vectors were collected at different sites using carbon dioxide. A deterministic model was developed to quantify risk and guide future mitigation strategies to reduce BTV infection in California dairy cattle. The greatest risk of BTV transmission was predicted within the warm Central Valley of California that contains the highest density of dairy cattle in the United States. Temperature and parameters associated with Culicoides vectors (transmission probabilities, carrying capacity, and survivorship) had the greatest effect on BTV's basic reproduction number, R0. Based on these analyses, optimal control strategies for reducing BTV infection risk in dairy cattle will be highly reliant upon early efforts to reduce vector abundance during the months prior to peak transmission.
Department of Microbiology, Immunology, and Pathology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
Christie
C
Mayo
Department of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.
Courtney
C
Shelley
Department of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.
N James
NJ
MacLachlan
Department of Health Management, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Prince Edward Island, Canada.
Ian
I
Gardner
James M. Anderson Center for Health Systems Excellence, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio, United States of America.
David
D
Hartley
Department of Pathology, Microbiology and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.
Christopher
C
Barker
D000818:Animals; D001820:Bluetongue virus / Q000502:physiology*; D002140:California; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology*; D003612:Dairying; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012306:Risk; D012621:Seasons