The development and validation of an index to predict 10-year mortality risk in a longitudinal cohort of older English adults.
we aimed to develop and validate a population-representative 10-year mortality risk index for older adults in England.



data were from 10,798 men and women aged 50 years and older in the population-based English Longitudinal Study of Ageing in 2002/03, randomly split into development (n = 5,377) and validation cohorts (n = 5,421). Participants were asked about their sociodemographics, health behaviours, comorbidities, and functional status in the home-based interviews. Variables that were independently associated with all-cause mortality through March 2013 in the development cohort were weighted relative to one another to develop risk point scores for the index that was calibrated in the validation cohort.



the validated 10-year mortality risk index assigns points for: increasing age (50-59 years: 0 points; 60-64: 1 point; 65-69: 3 points; 70-74: 5 points; 75-79: 7 points; 80-84: 9 points; ≥85: 12 points), male (2 points), no vigorous physical activity (1 point), smoking (2 points), having a diagnosis of cancer (1 point), chronic lung disease (2 points) or heart failure (4 points), and having difficulty preparing a hot meal (2 points), pushing or pulling large objects (1 point) or walking 100 yards (1 point). In the full study cohort, 10-year mortality rates increased from 1.7% (11/664) in those with 0 points to 95% (189/199) among those with ≥16 points.



this highly predictive 10-item mortality risk index is valid in the English population aged 50 years and older. It uses simple information that is often available in research studies and patient reports, and does not require biomarker data to predict mortality.
Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.|Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.
Lindsay C
LC
Kobayashi
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.
Sarah E
SE
Jackson
Division of Geriatrics, School of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Sei J
SJ
Lee
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.
Jane
J
Wardle
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.
Andrew
A
Steptoe
D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002423:Cause of Death; D015897:Comorbidity; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D015438:Health Behavior; D006304:Health Status; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D000073656:Healthy Aging / Q000523:psychology; D006801:Humans; D007407:Interviews as Topic; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008019:Life Style; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D051346:Mobility Limitation; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors
10-year mortality risk; mortality risk; mortality risk calculator; older people; risk factors