Seasonal analysis of the short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in Northeast Asia.
The constituents and concentrations of pollutants, individual exposures, and biologic responses to air pollution may vary by season and meteorological conditions. However, evidence regarding seasonality of the acute effects of air pollution on mortality is limited and inconsistent. Herein, we examined seasonal patterns in the short-term associations of particulate matter (PM) smaller than 10μm (PM10) with daily mortality in 29 cities of three northeast Asian countries. Stratified time-series models were used to determine whether season altered the effect of PM10on mortality. This effect was first quantified within each season and at each location using a time-series model, after which city-specific estimates were pooled using a hierarchical Bayesian model. In all data sets, 3,675,348 non-accidental deaths were registered from 1993 to 2009. In Japan, a 10μg/m3increase in PM10was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03%, 0.8%) in spring and 0.42% (0.02%, 0.82%) in fall. In South Korea, a 10μg/m3increase in PM10was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.51% (0.01%, 1.01%) in summer and 0.45% (0.03%, 0.87%) in fall, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.96% (0.29%, 1.63%) in fall, and in respiratory disease mortality of 1.57% (0.40%, 2.75%) in fall. In China, a 10μg/m3increase in PM10was associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.33% (0.01%, 0.66%) in summer and 0.41% (0.09%, 0.73%) in winter, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.41% (0.08%, 0.74%) in spring and 0.33% (0.02%, 0.64%) in winter, and in respiratory diseases mortality of 0.78% (0.27%, 1.30%) in winter. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary seasonally and geographically.
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: estella326@snu.ac.kr.
Satbyul Estella
SE
Kim
Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Japan.
Yasushi
Y
Honda
Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
Masahiro
M
Hashizume
Department of Environmental Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Haidong
H
Kan
Institute of Environmental Medicine, Seoul National University of Medical Research Center and Environmental Health Center, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Youn-Hee
YH
Lim
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea.
Hyewon
H
Lee
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea.
Clara Tammy
CT
Kim
Department of Environmental Health, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea; Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea.
Seung-Muk
SM
Yi
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea; Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: hokim@snu.ac.kr.
Ho
H
Kim
D000393:Air Pollutants; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002681:China; D002947:Cities; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D009026:Mortality; D052638:Particulate Matter; D056910:Republic of Korea; D012621:Seasons
D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter
Air pollution; Mortality; Particulate matter; Seasonality; Time series