title: Heart Disease and Cancer Deaths - Trends and Projections in the United States, 1969-2020.
abstract: Heart disease and cancer are the first and second leading causes of death in the United States. Age-standardized death rates (risk) have declined since the 1960s for heart disease and for cancer since the 1990s, whereas the overall number of heart disease deaths declined and cancer deaths increased. We analyzed mortality data to evaluate and project the effect of risk reduction, population growth, and aging on the number of heart disease and cancer deaths to the year 2020.
  
  
  
  We used mortality data, population estimates, and population projections to estimate and predict heart disease and cancer deaths from 1969 through 2020 and to apportion changes in deaths resulting from population risk, growth, and aging.
  
  
  
  We predicted that from 1969 through 2020, the number of heart disease deaths would decrease 21.3% among men (-73.9% risk, 17.9% growth, 34.7% aging) and 13.4% among women (-73.3% risk, 17.1% growth, 42.8% aging) while the number of cancer deaths would increase 91.1% among men (-33.5% risk, 45.6% growth, 79.0% aging) and 101.1% among women (-23.8% risk, 48.8% growth, 76.0% aging). We predicted that cancer would become the leading cause of death around 2016, although sex-specific crossover years varied.
  
  
  
  Risk of death declined more steeply for heart disease than cancer, offset the increase in heart disease deaths, and partially offset the increase in cancer deaths resulting from demographic changes over the past 4 decades. If current trends continue, cancer will become the leading cause of death by 2020.
authors.affiliation: Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Hwy, MS F76, Atlanta, GA 30341. E-mail: hbw4@cdc.gov.
authors.forename: Hannah K
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Weir
authors.affiliation: Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Hyattsville, Maryland.
authors.forename: Robert N
authors.initials: RN
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.affiliation: Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors.forename: Sallyann M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Coleman King
authors.affiliation: Northrop Grumman Corporation, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors.forename: Ashwini
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Soman
authors.affiliation: Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors.forename: Trevor D
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.affiliation: Division for Heart Disease and Stroke Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors.forename: Yuling
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.affiliation: Department of Registration, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Bjorn
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Moller
authors.affiliation: Division of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Leadbetter
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002423:Cause of Death; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006331:Heart Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D000069457:Population Forecast; D012044:Regression Analysis; D017678:Sex Distribution; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult