title: Spatial Analysis of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus in China Using a Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Model.
abstract: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is caused by severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV), which has had a serious impact on public health in parts of Asia. There is no specific antiviral drug or vaccine for SFTSV and, therefore, it is important to determine the factors that influence the occurrence of SFTSV infections. This study aimed to explore the spatial associations between SFTSV infections and several potential determinants, and to predict the high-risk areas in mainland China. The analysis was carried out at the level of provinces in mainland China. The potential explanatory variables that were investigated consisted of meteorological factors (average temperature, average monthly precipitation and average relative humidity), the average proportion of rural population and the average proportion of primary industries over three years (2010-2012). We constructed a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model in order to explore the associations between the selected variables and confirmed cases of SFTSV. The study showed that: (1) meteorological factors have a strong influence on the SFTSV cover; (2) a GWLR model is suitable for exploring SFTSV cover in mainland China; (3) our findings can be used for predicting high-risk areas and highlighting when meteorological factors pose a risk in order to aid in the implementation of public health strategies.
authors.affiliation: School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China. wuliang@cug.edu.cn.|National Engineering Research Center for GIS, Wuhan 430074, China. wuliang@cug.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Virology, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China. df@wh.iov.cn.
authors.forename: Fei
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Deng
authors.affiliation: School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China. xiezhong@cug.edu.cn.|National Engineering Research Center for GIS, Wuhan 430074, China. xiezhong@cug.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Zhong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Xie
authors.affiliation: School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China. hsh1n1@163.com.
authors.forename: Sheng
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Virology, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China. shenshu@wh.iov.cn.
authors.forename: Shu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Shen
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Virology, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China. sjm19901002@sina.com.
authors.forename: Junming
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.affiliation: School of Medicine, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430081, China. liudan125@wust.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Dan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D002044:Bunyaviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D016856:Phlebovirus / Q000502:physiology*; D012424:Rural Population; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D014887:Weather
keywords: GWLR; SFTSV; public health; spatial analysis