title: Field warming experiments shed light on the wheat yield response to temperature in China.
abstract: Wheat growth is sensitive to temperature, but the effect of future warming on yield is uncertain. Here, focusing on China, we compiled 46 observations of the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature change (SY,T, yield change per °C) from field warming experiments and 102 SY,Testimates from local process-based and statistical models. The average SY,Tfrom field warming experiments, local process-based models and statistical models is -0.7±7.8(±s.d.)% per °C, -5.7±6.5% per °C and 0.4±4.4% per °C, respectively. Moreover, SY,Tis different across regions and warming experiments indicate positive SY,Tvalues in regions where growing-season mean temperature is low, and water supply is not limiting, and negative values elsewhere. Gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project appear to capture the spatial pattern of SY,Tdeduced from warming observations. These results from local manipulative experiments could be used to improve crop models in the future.
authors.affiliation: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
authors.forename: Chuang
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.|Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.|Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.
authors.forename: Shilong
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Piao
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China.
authors.forename: Yao
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
authors.forename: Xuhui
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: LSCE, UMR CEA-CNRS, Bat. 709, CE, L'Orme des Merisiers, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ciais
authors.affiliation: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
authors.forename: Mengtian
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
authors.forename: Zhenzhong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.affiliation: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
authors.forename: Shushi
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5098-726X
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Peng
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D003198:Computer Simulation; D006358:Hot Temperature; D008954:Models, Biological; D014908:Triticum / Q000254:growth & development*