title: Nomogram for predicting central node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  There was a difficulty for detecting Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to design a nomogram for predicting CLNM.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 10,763 PTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with central neck dissection (CND) in Samsung Medical Center were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 7,535) and to the internal validation set (n = 3,228). And, a total of 2,514 PTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with CND at Seoul National University Hospital were assigned to the external validation set.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The values of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set were 0.721 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.709-0.732), 0.706 (95%CI, 0.688-0.724), and 0.706 (95%CI, 0.685-0.727), respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We recommend the use of our nomogram to enable clinicians and patients to easily personalize and quantify the probability of CLNM during the both pre- and postoperative period. Clinicians may consider the prophylactic CND and meticulous postoperative evaluation in PTC patients with a high nomogram score. J. Surg. Oncol. 2017;115:266-272. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
authors.affiliation: Division of Breast and Endocrine Surgery, Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Seo Ki
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Young Jun
authors.initials: YJ
authors.lastname: Chai
authors.affiliation: Division of Breast and Endocrine Surgery, Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Inhye
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Park
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Changwon Gyeongsang National University Hospital, Gyeongsang National University School of Medicine, Changwon, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jung-Woo
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Woo
authors.affiliation: Division of Breast and Endocrine Surgery, Department of Surgery, Samsung Changwon Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Changwon, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jun Ho
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Hospital and College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Kyu Eun
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Division of Breast and Endocrine Surgery, Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jun-Ho
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Choe
authors.affiliation: Division of Breast and Endocrine Surgery, Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jung-Han
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Division of Breast and Endocrine Surgery, Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jee Soo
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Kim
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002277:Carcinoma / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D002291:Carcinoma, Papillary; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008198:Lymph Nodes / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D008207:Lymphatic Metastasis; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D000077273:Thyroid Cancer, Papillary; D013964:Thyroid Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: central lymph node metastasis; central neck dissection; nomogram; papillary thyroid carcinoma; ultrasonography