title: [Method for projecting indicators for the goals of the Strategic Action Plan for Tackling Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases in Brazil according to Capitals and the Federal District].
abstract: to present the indicators' projection method of the Strategic Action Plan for Tackling Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Brazilian State capitals and the Federal District, 2012-2022.
  
  
  
  simple linear regression model was used to calculate the indicators' projections with data from the Surveillance System of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (Vigitel).
  
  
  
  in most of the capitals, there was an increase in the prevalence of obesity (annual change: 0.36%;1.29%), overweight (annual change: 1.11%;2.00%), recommended (annual change: 1.45%;2.66%) and regular (annual change: 0.45%;1.46%) consumption of fruits and vegetables; smoking presented a decreasing trend (annual change: -1.34%;-0.20%); whereas physical inactivity, heavy drinking and mammography and Pap smears examinations were stable.
  
  
  
  most of the goals are possible; however, effective actions are necessary, especially for tackling overweight and heavy drinking.
authors.affiliation: Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Saúde Pública, São Paulo-SP, Brasil.
authors.forename: Regina Tomie Ivata
authors.initials: RT
authors.lastname: Bernal
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Departamento Materno-Infantil e de Saúde Pública, Belo Horizonte-MG, Brasil.
authors.forename: Deborah Carvalho
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Malta
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Porto Alegre-RS, Brasil.
authors.forename: Betine Pinto Moehlecke
authors.initials: BP
authors.lastname: Iser
authors.affiliation: Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto-SP, Brasil.
authors.forename: Rosane Aparecida
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Monteiro
mesh_terms: D000437:Alcoholism / Q000453:epidemiology; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002947:Cities / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005638:Fruit; D006040:Goals; D006801:Humans; D008327:Mammography / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000073296:Noncommunicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D050177:Overweight; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D057185:Sedentary Behavior; D000074606:Smoking Prevention / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014626:Vaginal Smears / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014675:Vegetables