title: Predictive Validity of an Empirical Approach for Selecting Promising Message Topics: A Randomized-Controlled Study.
abstract: Several message topic selection approaches propose that messages based on beliefs pretested and found to be more strongly associated with intentions will be more effective in changing population intentions and behaviors when used in a campaign. This study aimed to validate the underlying causal assumption of these approaches which rely on cross-sectional belief-intention associations. We experimentally tested whether messages addressing promising themes as identified by the above criterion were more persuasive than messages addressing less promising themes. Contrary to expectations, all messages increased intentions. Interestingly, mediation analyses showed that while messages deemed promising affected intentions through changes in targeted promising beliefs, messages deemed less promising also achieved persuasion by influencing nontargeted promising beliefs. Implications for message topic selection are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
authors.forename: Stella Juhyun
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Centre for Behavioural Research in Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia.
authors.forename: Emily
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Brennan
authors.affiliation: Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
authors.forename: Laura Anne
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Gibson
authors.affiliation: Center for Community-Based Research, Division of Population Sciences, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
authors.forename: Andy S L
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Tan
authors.affiliation: Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
authors.forename: Ani
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kybert-Momjian
authors.affiliation: Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
authors.forename: Jiaying
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hornik
keywords: Campaign Design; Experimental Methods; Message Effects; Message Topics; Predictive Validity