title: Malaria ecology, child mortality & fertility.
abstract: The broad determinants of fertility are thought to be reasonably well identified by demographers, though the detailed quantitative drivers of fertility levels and changes are less well understood. This paper uses a novel ecological index of malaria transmission to study the effect of child mortality on fertility. We find that temporal variation in the ecology of the disease is well-correlated to mortality, and pernicious malaria conditions lead to higher fertility rates. We then argue that most of this effect occurs through child mortality, and estimate the effect of child mortality changes on fertility. Our findings add to the literature on disease and fertility, and contribute to the suggestive evidence that child mortality reductions have a causal effect on fertility changes.
authors.affiliation: School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive #0519, La Jolla, CA 92093, United States. Electronic address: gmccord@ucsd.edu.
authors.forename: Gordon C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: McCord
authors.affiliation: Princeton University, United States. Electronic address: dconley@princeton.edu.
authors.forename: Dalton
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Conley
authors.affiliation: Columbia University, United States. Electronic address: sachs@columbia.edu.
authors.forename: Jeffrey D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Sachs
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001723:Birth Rate / Q000639:trends*; D046688:Child Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D002675:Child, Preschool; D009033:Culicidae / Q000254:growth & development / Q000469:parasitology*; D003906:Developing Countries / Q000191:economics; D004463:Ecology; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007226:Infant Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000469:parasitology; D008288:Malaria / Q000191:economics / Q000401:mortality* / Q000635:transmission; D011640:Public Policy / Q000191:economics; D011891:Rain / Q000469:parasitology; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014329:Tropical Climate; D014887:Weather
keywords: Fertility; Malaria; Mortality