title: Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?
abstract: Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree.
authors.affiliation: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 48109, USA.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Guittar
authors.affiliation: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 48109, USA.
authors.forename: Deborah
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Goldberg
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, N-1432 Ås, Norway.
authors.forename: Kari
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Klanderud
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
authors.forename: Richard J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Telford
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Bergen, P.O. Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
authors.forename: Vigdis
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Vandvik
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D009664:Norway; D018515:Plant Leaves; D010944:Plants
keywords: alpine plant communities; clonal traits; community response; environmental gradient analysis; grasslands; plant functional traits; turf transplantation