title: Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics.
abstract: A key question in clarifying human-environment interactions is how dynamic complexity develops across integrative scales from molecular to population and global levels. Apart from its public health importance, measles is an excellent test bed for such an analysis. Simple mechanistic models have successfully illuminated measles dynamics at the city and country levels, revealing seasonal forcing of transmission as a major driver of long-term epidemic behavior. Seasonal forcing ties closely to patterns of school aggregation at the individual and community levels, but there are few explicit estimates of school transmission due to the relative lack of epidemic data at this scale. Here, we use data from a 1904 measles outbreak in schools in Woolwich, London, coupled with a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to analyze measles incidence data. Our results indicate that transmission within schools and age classes is higher than previous population-level serological data would suggest. This analysis sheds quantitative light on the role of school-aged children in measles cross-scale dynamics, as we illustrate with references to the contemporary vaccination landscape.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; adbecker@princeton.edu.
authors.forename: Alexander D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Becker
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
authors.forename: Ruthie B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Birger
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
authors.forename: Aude
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Teillant
authors.affiliation: Division of Viral Disease, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30329.
authors.forename: Paul A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Gastanaduy
authors.affiliation: Division of Viral Disease, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30329.
authors.forename: Gregory S
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Wallace
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.|Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.|Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892.
authors.forename: Bryan T
authors.initials: BT
authors.lastname: Grenfell
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000266:history; D058872:Epidemics; D049673:History, 20th Century; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D015994:Incidence; D008131:London; D008457:Measles / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D008458:Measles Vaccine; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011634:Public Health; D012574:Schools; D012621:Seasons; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014611:Vaccination
chemical_list: D008458:Measles Vaccine
keywords: childhood infection; cross-scale dynamics; mathematical model; measles; vaccine refusal