title: Conceptualizing socio-hydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse.
abstract: With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio-hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600-830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society's collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse. Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Water Resource Systems, Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Linda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kuil
authors.affiliation: Centre for Water Resource Systems, Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Gemma
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Carr
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Viglione
authors.affiliation: Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria; Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/OEAW,WU) Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Alexia
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Prskawetz
authors.affiliation: Centre for Water Resource Systems, Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria; Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management Vienna University of Technology Vienna Austria.
authors.forename: Günter
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Blöschl
keywords: Ancient Maya; drought; socio‐hydrology; vulnerability