title: Short-term predicted extinction of Andean populations of the lizard Stenocercus guentheri (Iguanidae: Tropidurinae).
abstract: We studied the thermal physiology of the Andean lizard Stenocercus guentheri in order to evaluate the possible effects of global warming on this species. We determined the preferred body temperature (Tpref), critical thermals (CTmin, CTmax), and hours of restriction and activity. Tprefwas 32.14±1.83°C; CTmin was 8.31°C in adults and 9.14°C in juveniles, whereas CTmax was 43.28°C in adults and 41.68°C in juveniles. To assess extinction risk, we used the model created by Sinervo et al. (2010) and predicted that 16.7% of populations will have a high risk of extinction by 2020, with an increase to 26.7% by 2050. These results suggest that this species, despite being able to maintain its Tprefthrough behavioral thermoregulation and habitat selection, could be physiologically sensitive to climate warming; thus, the potential for local adaptation may be limited under a warmer climate. Further studies focusing on the ability of S. guentheri to evolve higher Tprefand thermal tolerances are needed to understand the ability of this species to respond to climate change.
authors.affiliation: Museo de Zoología, Escuela de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Avenida 12 de Octubre y Roca, Apartado 17-01-2184, Quito, Ecuador. Electronic address: ma.belen.19.sys@gmail.com.
authors.forename: María Belén
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Andrango
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA. Electronic address: carla.sette@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Carla
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sette
authors.affiliation: Museo de Zoología, Escuela de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Avenida 12 de Octubre y Roca, Apartado 17-01-2184, Quito, Ecuador. Electronic address: omartorcar@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Omar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Torres-Carvajal
mesh_terms: D000064:Acclimatization; D000818:Animals; D001831:Body Temperature; D001833:Body Temperature Regulation; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005260:Female; D057232:Global Warming / Q000401:mortality*; D008116:Lizards / Q000502:physiology*; D008297:Male; D013020:South America; D013696:Temperature; D000071436:Thermotolerance
keywords: Andes; Critical thermal; Extinction; Global warming; Lizard; Restriction hours