title: One-hour postload plasma glucose concentration in people with normal glucose homeostasis predicts future diabetes mellitus: a 12-year community-based cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  In Caucasians, plasma glucose concentration at 1 h during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) may be a better predictor of future diabetes mellitus than the fasting or 2-h postload glucose concentration. We investigated whether the 1-h glucose concentration could be used to predict future diabetes mellitus in Asian ethnicity.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 5703 Koreans with normal glucose tolerance were enrolled from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. Indices of insulin sensitivity and β-cell function estimated from standard 75-g OGTTs performed every 2 years for 12 years were used to identify whether the 1-h glucose concentration could predict future diabetes mellitus.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean age and body mass index at baseline were 51·3 ± 8·7 years and 24·2 ± 3·0 kg/m2, respectively. During the 12-year follow-up, 593 subjects (10·3%) developed diabetes mellitus. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for incident diabetes mellitus was higher for the 1-h postload glucose concentration than for the fasting or postload 2-h glucose concentration (0·74 vs 0·61 or 0·63). The cut-off value of ≥8·0 mmol/l identified incident diabetes mellitus with 70% sensitivity and 68% specificity. After adjusting for typical risk factors, subjects with a 1-h postload glucose concentration ≥8·0 mmol/l had lower β-cell function and a 2·84-fold increased risk of incident diabetes mellitus compared with their counterparts.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In this community-based 12-year prospective cohort study, 1-h postload plasma glucose concentration was an independent predictor of future diabetes mellitus and 8·0 mmol/l was suggested as a cut-off value.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine and Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea.
authors.forename: Tae Jung
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Oh
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine and Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea.
authors.forename: Soo
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lim
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine and Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea.
authors.forename: Kyoung Min
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine and Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jae Hoon
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Moon
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine and Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea.
authors.forename: Sung Hee
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Young Min
authors.initials: YM
authors.lastname: Cho
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Kyong Soo
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Park
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: HakChul
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Jang
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, South Korea.
authors.forename: Nam H
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Cho
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D044466:Asian People; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000175:diagnosis; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test / Q000379:methods* / Q000592:standards; D006706:Homeostasis; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose