title: Estimates of local biodiversity change over time stand up to scrutiny.
abstract: We present new data and analyses revealing fundamental flaws in a critique of two recent meta-analyses of local-scale temporal biodiversity change. First, the conclusion that short-term time series lead to biased estimates of long-term change was based on two errors in the simulations used to support it. Second, the conclusion of negative relationships between temporal biodiversity change and study duration was entirely dependent on unrealistic model assumptions, the use of a subset of data, and inclusion of one outlier data point in one study. Third, the finding of a decline in local biodiversity, after eliminating post-disturbance studies, is not robust to alternative analyses on the original data set, and is absent in a larger, updated data set. Finally, the undebatable point, noted in both original papers, that studies in the ecological literature are geographically biased, was used to cast doubt on the conclusion that, outside of areas converted to croplands or asphalt, the distribution of biodiversity trends is centered approximately on zero. Future studies may modify conclusions, but at present, alternative conclusions based on the geographic-bias argument rely on speculation. In sum, the critique raises points of uncertainty typical of all ecological studies, but does not provide an evidence-based alternative interpretation.
authors.affiliation: Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, 2500 boulevard de l'Université, Sherbrooke, Quebec, J1K 2R1, Canada.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vellend
authors.affiliation: Centre for Biological Diversity and Scottish Oceans Institute, School of Biology, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9TH, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Dornelas
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Water Management, Forest & Nature Lab, Ghent University, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium.
authors.forename: Lander
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Baeten
authors.affiliation: Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, 2500 boulevard de l'Université, Sherbrooke, Quebec, J1K 2R1, Canada.
authors.forename: Robin
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Beauséjour
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Memorial University, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, A1B 3X9, Canada.
authors.forename: Carissa D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Water Management, Forest & Nature Lab, Ghent University, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium.|Department of Plant Production, Ghent University, Proefhoevestraat 22, 9090, Melle, Belgium.
authors.forename: Pieter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: De Frenne
authors.affiliation: National Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, Colorado, 80301, USA.
authors.forename: Sarah C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Elmendorf
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, 05405, USA.
authors.forename: Nicholas J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Gotelli
authors.affiliation: Centre for Biological Diversity and Scottish Oceans Institute, School of Biology, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9TH, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Faye
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Moyes
authors.affiliation: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Isla H
authors.initials: IH
authors.lastname: Myers-Smith
authors.affiliation: Centre for Biological Diversity and Scottish Oceans Institute, School of Biology, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9TH, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Anne E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Magurran
authors.affiliation: School of Biology and Ecology, Sustainability Solutions Initiative, University of Maine, Orono, Maine, 04469, USA.
authors.forename: Brian J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: McGill
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Hideyasu
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0919-8829
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Shimadzu
authors.affiliation: Centre for Biological Diversity and Scottish Oceans Institute, School of Biology, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, Fife, KY16 9TH, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Caya
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sievers
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D004463:Ecology; D035501:Uncertainty
keywords: biodiversity; disturbance; geographic bias; meta-analysis; species richness; temporal change; time series