title: Modelling Seasonal Brucellosis Epidemics in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, 2010-2014.
abstract: Brucellosis is one of the severe public health problems; the cumulative number of new human brucellosis cases reached 211515 from 2010 to 2014 in China. Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture is situated in the southeast of Xinjiang, where brucellosis infection occurs every year. Based on the reported data of newly acute human brucellosis cases for each season in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, we proposed a susceptible, exposed, infected, and vaccinated (SEIV) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal brucellosis transmission dynamics among sheep/cattle and from sheep/cattle to humans. Compared with the criteria of MAPE and RMSPE, the model simulations agree to the data on newly acute human brucellosis. We predict that the number of newly acute human brucellosis is increasing and will peak 15325 [95% CI: 11920-18242] around the summer of 2023. We also estimate the basic reproduction numberR0= 2.5524 [95% CI: 2.5129-2.6225] and perform some sensitivity analysis of the newly acute human brucellosis cases and the basic reproduction numberR0in terms of model parameters. Our study demonstrates that reducing the birth number of sheep/cattle, raising the slaughter rate of infected sheep/cattle, increasing the vaccination rate of susceptible sheep/cattle, and decreasing the loss rate of vaccination are effective strategies to control brucellosis epidemic.
authors.affiliation: College of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China.
authors.forename: Pengwei
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lou
authors.affiliation: College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China.
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China.
authors.forename: Xueliang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Basic Teaching, Xinjiang College of Engineering, Urumqi 830000, China.
authors.forename: Jiabo
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: College of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China.
authors.forename: Kai
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-6224-8453
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D002006:Brucellosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D011336:Probability; D012621:Seasons