title: Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.
abstract: How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.
authors.affiliation: Unité Mixte de Recherche Biodiversité Gènes & Communautés (UMR 1202 BIOGECO), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - Université de Bordeaux, 69 route d'Arcachon, Cestas, F-33610, France.|Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias y Forestales, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Av. San Juanito Itzícuaro s/n, Col. Nueva Esperanza, Morelia Michoacán, 58337, México.
authors.forename: Cuauhtémoc
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sáenz-Romero
authors.affiliation: SG2M, LGPMM, Ifremer, Avenue Mus de Loup, La Tremblade, F-17390, France.
authors.forename: Jean-Baptiste
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Lamy
authors.affiliation: Unité Mixte de Recherche Biodiversité Gènes & Communautés (UMR 1202 BIOGECO), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - Université de Bordeaux, 69 route d'Arcachon, Cestas, F-33610, France.
authors.forename: Alexis
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ducousso
authors.affiliation: Conservatoire Génétique des Arbres Forestiers, Office National des Forêts, 2163 Avenue de la pomme de pin, Orléans Cedex, 45075, France.
authors.forename: Brigitte
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Musch
authors.affiliation: Unité Mixte de Recherche Biodiversité Gènes & Communautés (UMR 1202 BIOGECO), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - Université de Bordeaux, 69 route d'Arcachon, Cestas, F-33610, France.
authors.forename: François
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ehrenmann
authors.affiliation: Unité Mixte de Recherche Biodiversité Gènes & Communautés (UMR 1202 BIOGECO), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - Université de Bordeaux, 69 route d'Arcachon, Cestas, F-33610, France.
authors.forename: Sylvain
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Delzon
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, EH26 0QB, UK.
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cavers
authors.affiliation: Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Parkowa 5, Kornik, PL-62-035, Poland.
authors.forename: Władysław
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Chałupka
authors.affiliation: Forest Tending Division of Silviculture Department, General Directorate of Forestry - Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs, 06560 Söğütözü Caddesi, Bestepe, Yenimahalle, Ankara, Turkey.
authors.forename: Said
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dağdaş
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, Frederiksberg C, DK-1958, Denmark.
authors.forename: Jon Kehlet
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Hansen
authors.affiliation: Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin, EH25 9SY, Scotland.
authors.forename: Steve J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Thünen-Institut für Forstgenetik, Sieker Landstrasse. 2, Grosshansdorf, 22927, Germany.
authors.forename: Mirko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Liesebach
authors.affiliation: Abteilung Waldgenressourcen, Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt, Professor-Oelkers-Straße 6, Hann. Münden, 34346, Germany.
authors.forename: Hans-Martin
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Rau
authors.affiliation: Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Achilleas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Psomas
authors.affiliation: Thünen-Institut für Forstgenetik, Eberswalder Chaussee 3A, Waldsieversdorf, 15377, Germany.
authors.forename: Volker
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Schneck
authors.affiliation: Abteilung Waldgenressourcen, Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt, Professor-Oelkers-Straße 6, Hann. Münden, 34346, Germany.
authors.forename: Wilfried
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Steiner
authors.affiliation: Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, Birmensdorf, CH-8903, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Niklaus E
authors.initials: NE
authors.lastname: Zimmermann
authors.affiliation: Unité Mixte de Recherche Biodiversité Gènes & Communautés (UMR 1202 BIOGECO), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) - Université de Bordeaux, 69 route d'Arcachon, Cestas, F-33610, France.
authors.forename: Antoine
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kremer
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003718:Denmark; D005060:Europe; D005602:France; D009664:Norway; D029963:Quercus / Q000254:growth & development*
keywords: 
  Quercus petraea
  ; climatic change; climatic transfer distance; mixed model; survival; tree growth