title: Integration of Multiple Data Sources to Simulate the Dynamics of Land Systems.
abstract: In this paper we present and develop a new model, which we have calledDynamics of Land Systems (DLS). The DLS model is capable of integrating multiple datasources to simulate the dynamics of a land system. Three main modules are incorporatedin DLS: a spatial regression module, to explore the relationship between land uses andinfluencing factors, a scenario analysis module of the land uses of a region during thesimulation period and a spatial disaggregation module, to allocate land use changes froma regional level to disaggregated grid cells. A case study on Taips County in North Chinais incorporated in this paper to test the functionality of DLS. The simulation results underthe baseline, economic priority and environmental scenarios help to understand the landsystem dynamics and project near future land-use trajectories of a region, in order tofocus management decisions on land uses and land use planning.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, P.R. China. dengxz.ccap@igsnrr.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Xiangzheng
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Deng
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, P.R. China. suhb@igsnrr.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Hongbo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Su
authors.affiliation: Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, P.R. China. zhanjy@bnu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Jinyan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhan
keywords: Land use; dynamics of land systems; land use change; scenario analysis; simulation