title: Assessing the safety effects of cooperative intelligent transport systems: A bowtie analysis approach.
abstract: The safety effects of cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS) are mostly unknown and associated with uncertainties, because these systems represent emerging technology. This study proposes a bowtie analysis as a conceptual framework for evaluating the safety effect of cooperative intelligent transport systems. These seek to prevent road traffic accidents or mitigate their consequences. Under the assumption of the potential occurrence of a particular single vehicle accident, three case studies demonstrate the application of the bowtie analysis approach in road traffic safety. The approach utilizes exemplary expert estimates and knowledge from literature on the probability of the occurrence of accident risk factors and of the success of safety measures. Fuzzy set theory is applied to handle uncertainty in expert knowledge. Based on this approach, a useful tool is developed to estimate the effects of safety-related cooperative intelligent transport systems in terms of the expected change in accident occurrence and consequence probability.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil & Transport Engineering, NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway. Electronic address: ute.ehlers@ntnu.no.
authors.forename: Ute Christine
authors.initials: UC
authors.lastname: Ehlers
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil & Transport Engineering, NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway. Electronic address: eirin.ryeng@ntnu.no.
authors.forename: Eirin Olaussen
authors.initials: EO
authors.lastname: Ryeng
authors.affiliation: Transportation Engineering Group, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-2700, USA. Electronic address: edm@uw.edu.
authors.forename: Edward
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: McCormack
authors.affiliation: Process Safety & Risk Engineering Group, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, A1B 3X5, Canada. Electronic address: fikhan@mun.ca.
authors.forename: Faisal
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.affiliation: Institute for Ship Structural Design and Analysis, Hamburg University of Technology, 21073 Hamburg, Germany. Electronic address: ehlers@tuhh.de.
authors.forename: Sören
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ehlers
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001185:Artificial Intelligence; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000523:psychology*; D006801:Humans; D015397:Program Evaluation; D011482:Protective Devices; D012307:Risk Factors; D012449:Safety / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014584:User-Computer Interface
keywords: Bowtie; Cooperative intelligent transport systems; Fuzzy sets; Safety effect assessment