title: [Acute effect of daily mean temperature on ischemic heart disease mortality: a multivariable meta-analysis from 12 counties across Hubei Province, China].
abstract: Objective:To evaluate the acute effects of daily mean temperature on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in 12 counties across Hubei Province, China.Methods:We obtained the daily IHD mortality data and meteorological data of the 12 counties for 2009-2012. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the community-specific association between mean temperature and IHD mortality. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the community-specific relationship between temperature and IHD mortality, and the effects of cold and heat on mortality risk.Results:In 2009-2012, of the 6 702 012 people included in this study, 19 688 died of IHD. A daily average of 1.2 IHD deaths occurred in each community. The annual average mean temperature was 16.6 ℃ during the study period. A nonlinear temperature-IHD mortality relationship was observed for different cumulative lag days at the provincial level. The pooled heat effect was acute but attenuated within 2 days. In contrast, the cold effect was delayed and persisted for more than 2 weeks. Compared with a reference temperature (25thpercentile of mean temperature during the study period,P25), the cold effect forP10of mean temperature was associated with IHD mortality, theRR(95%CI) was 1.084 (1.008-1.167) at lag 0-14, and 1.149 (1.053-1.253) at lag 0-21. For the P1cold temperature, the mortalityRR(95%CI) values were 1.116 (0.975-1.276) and 1.220 (1.04-1.428), respectively. We found no significant association between high temperatures and IHD mortality in the present study at different lag days.Conclusion:In Hubei Province, low temperature was associated with increased IHD mortality risk, and cold effects lasted for several days; no significant effect of high temperature was observed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China.
authors.forename: Y Q
authors.initials: YQ
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: C H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.forename: J Z
authors.initials: JZ
authors.lastname: Bao
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003080:Cold Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000401:mortality*; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D017202:Myocardial Ischemia / Q000401:mortality*; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D012306:Risk; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D013696:Temperature