title: A discriminant analysis prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate based on risk factors.
abstract: A risk prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P) was established by a discriminant analysis to predict the individual risk of NSCL/P in pregnant women.
  
  
  
  A hospital-based case-control study was conducted with 113 cases of NSCL/P and 226 controls without NSCL/P. The cases and the controls were obtained from 52 birth defects' surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province, China. A questionnaire was administered in person to collect the variables relevant to NSCL/P by face to face interviews. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of NSCL/P, and a stepwise Fisher discriminant analysis was subsequently used to construct the prediction model.
  
  
  
  In the univariate analysis, 13 influencing factors were related to NSCL/P, of which the following 8 influencing factors as predictors determined the discriminant prediction model: family income, maternal occupational hazards exposure, premarital medical examination, housing renovation, milk/soymilk intake in the first trimester of pregnancy, paternal occupational hazards exposure, paternal strong tea drinking, and family history of NSCL/P. The model had statistical significance (lambda = 0.772, chi-square = 86.044, df = 8, P < 0.001). Self-verification showed that 83.8 % of the participants were correctly predicted to be NSCL/P cases or controls with a sensitivity of 74.3 % and a specificity of 88.5 %. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.846.
  
  
  
  The prediction model that was established using the risk factors of NSCL/P can be useful for predicting the risk of NSCL/P. Further research is needed to improve the model, and confirm the validity and reliability of the model.
authors.affiliation: Department of Maternal and Children Health, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, No.110, Xiangya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha, 410008, Hunan Province, China.|Department of Child Health Care, Hunan Provincial Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, No.53, Xiangchun Road, Kaifu District, Changsha, 410008, Hunan Province, China.
authors.forename: Huixia
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, 21 Lower Kent Ridge Road, Singapore, 119077, Singapore.
authors.forename: Miyang
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: Department of Maternal and Children Health, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, No.110, Xiangya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha, 410008, Hunan Province, China. jiayouluo@126.com.
authors.forename: Jiayou
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency and Intensive Care Medicine, Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No.139, Central Renminzhong Road, Furong District, Changsha, 410011, Hunan Province, China.
authors.forename: Jianfei
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zheng
authors.affiliation: Department of Pharmacy, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No.87, Xiangya Road, Kaifu District, Changsha, 410008, Hunan Province, China.
authors.forename: Rong
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Care, Hunan Provincial Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, No.53, Xiangchun Road, Kaifu District, Changsha, 410008, Hunan Province, China.
authors.forename: Qiyun
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Du
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Care, Hunan Provincial Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, No.53, Xiangchun Road, Kaifu District, Changsha, 410008, Hunan Province, China.
authors.forename: Junqun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.affiliation: Department of Hospital Infection-Control, Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, No.139, Central Renmin Road, Furong District, Changsha, 410011, Hunan Province, China.
authors.forename: Na
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ouyang
mesh_terms: D019540:Area Under Curve; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D002681:China; D002971:Cleft Lip / Q000209:etiology*; D002972:Cleft Palate / Q000209:etiology*; D016002:Discriminant Analysis; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D018811:Maternal Exposure; D039382:Maternal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena; D018812:Paternal Exposure; D010375:Pedigree; D011247:Pregnancy; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Discriminant analysis; Non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate; Prediction model; Risk factors