title: Budget Impact of Long-Acting Insulin Analogues: The Case in Brazil.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Long-acting insulin analogues for type 1 diabetes (T1D) treatment have been available on the Brazilian market since 2002. However, the population cannot access the analogues through the public health system.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the incremental budget impact of long-acting insulin analogues coverage for T1D patients in the Brazilian public health system compared to NPH insulin.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a budget impact analysis of a five-year period. The eligible population was projected using epidemiological data from the International Diabetes Federation estimates for patients between 0-14 and 20-79 years old. The prevalence of T1D was estimated in children, and the same proportion was applied to the 15-19-year-old group due to a gap in epidemiological information. We considered 4,944 new cases per year and a 34.61/100,000 inhabitants mortality rate. Market share for long-acting insulin analogues was assumed as 20% in the first year, reaching 40% in the fifth year. The mean daily dose was taken from clinical trials. We calculated the bargaining power of the Ministry of Health by dividing the price paid for human insulin in the last purchase by the average regulated price. We performed univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The incremental budget impact of long-acting insulin analogues was US$ 28.6 million in the first year, and reached US$ 58.7 million in the fifth year. The total incremental budget impact was US$ 217.9 million over the five-year period. The sensitivity analysis showed that the percentage of T1D among diabetic adults and the insulin analogue price were the main factors that affected the budget impact.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The cost of the first year of long-acting insulin analogue coverage would correspond to 0.03% of total public health expenditure. The main advantage of this study is that it identifies potential bargaining power because it features more realistic profiles of resource usage, once centralized purchasing is established as an economically sustainable strategy. Clinical guidelines restricting the use of insulin analogues would make the decision towards insulin analogue coverage more affordable.
authors.affiliation: University of Brasilia, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil.
authors.forename: Fernanda O
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2664-2736
authors.initials: FO
authors.lastname: Laranjeira
authors.affiliation: University of Brasilia, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil.
authors.forename: Everton Nunes da
authors.initials: EN
authors.lastname: Silva
authors.affiliation: University of Brasilia, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil.
authors.forename: Maurício G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Pereira
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000191:economics*; D005260:Female; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007004:Hypoglycemic Agents / Q000191:economics* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007336:Insulin, Isophane / Q000191:economics* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D049528:Insulin, Long-Acting / Q000191:economics* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011634:Public Health / Q000191:economics*
chemical_list: D007004:Hypoglycemic Agents; D049528:Insulin, Long-Acting; D007336:Insulin, Isophane