title: Evaluation of Control Strategies for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) in Swine Breeding Herds Using a Discrete Event Agent-Based Model.
abstract: The objective of this study was to develop a discrete event agent-based stochastic model to explore the likelihood of the occurrence of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) outbreaks in swine herds with different PRRS control measures in place. The control measures evaluated included vaccination with a modified-live attenuated vaccine and live-virus inoculation of gilts, and both were compared to a baseline scenario where no control measures were in place. A typical North American 1,000-sow farrow-to-wean swine herd was used as a model, with production and disease parameters estimated from the literature and expert opinion. The model constructed herein was not only able to capture individual animal heterogeneity in immunity to and shedding of the PRRS virus, but also the dynamic animal flow and contact structure typical in such herds under field conditions. The model outcomes included maximum number of females infected per simulation, and time at which that happened and the incidence of infected weaned piglets during the first year of challenge-virus introduction. Results showed that the baseline scenario produced a larger percentage of simulations resulting in outbreaks compared to the control scenarios, and interestingly some of the outbreaks occurred over long periods after virus introduction. The live-virus inoculation scenario showed promising results, with fewer simulations resulting in outbreaks than the other scenarios, but the negative impacts of maintaining a PRRS-positive population should be considered. Finally, under the assumptions of the current model, neither of the control strategies prevented the infection from spreading to the piglet population, which highlights the importance of maintaining internal biosecurity practices at the farrowing room level.
authors.affiliation: Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada.
authors.forename: Andréia Gonçalves
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Arruda
authors.affiliation: Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Friendship
authors.affiliation: Woodstock, Ontario, N4S 6N8, Canada.
authors.forename: Jane
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Carpenter
authors.affiliation: Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada.
authors.forename: Amy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Greer
authors.affiliation: Department of Population Medicine, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1, Canada.
authors.forename: Zvonimir
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Poljak
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001947:Breeding; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D009656:North America / Q000453:epidemiology; D019318:Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D019316:Porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus; D013552:Swine / Q000821:virology*