title: Projected changes in climatic suitability forKinosternonturtles by 2050 and 2070.
abstract: Chelonians are expected to be negatively impacted by climate change due to limited vagility and temperature-dependent sex determination. However, few studies have examined how freshwater turtle distributions may shift under different climate change scenarios. We used a maximum entropy approach to model the distribution of five widespread North AmericanKinosternonspecies (K. baurii,K. flavescens,K. hirtipes,K. sonoriense, andK. subrubrum) under four climate change scenarios. We found that areas with suitable climatic conditions forK. bauriiandK. hirtipesare expected to decline substantially during the 21st century. In contrast, the area with suitable climate forK. sonoriensewill remain essentially unchanged, while areas suitable forK. flavescensandK. subrubrumare expected to substantially increase. The centroid for the distribution of four of the five species shifted northward, while the centroid forK. sonorienseshifted slightly southward. Overall, centroids shifted at a median rate of 37.5 km per decade across all scenarios. Given the limited dispersal ability of turtles, it appears unlikely that range shifts will occur rapidly enough to keep pace with climate change during the 21st century. The ability of chelonians to modify behavioral and physiological responses in response to unfavorable conditions may allow turtles to persist for a time in areas that have become increasingly unsuitable, but this plasticity will likely only delay local extinctions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology University of Central Oklahoma Edmond OK USA.
authors.forename: Christopher J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Butler
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology University of Central Oklahoma Edmond OK USA.
authors.forename: Brian D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Stanila
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology Earlham College Richmond IN USA.
authors.forename: John B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Iverson
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology University of Central Oklahoma Edmond OK USA.
authors.forename: Paul A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Stone
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology University of Central Oklahoma Edmond OK USA.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bryson
keywords: Maxent; chelonian; climate change; distribution; ecological niche model; turtle