title: Association between dengue fever incidence and meteorological factors in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2014.
abstract: This study aims to (1) investigate the associations between climatic factors and dengue; and (2) identify the susceptible subgroups. De-identified daily dengue cases in Guangzhou for 2005-2014 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Weather data were downloaded from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to graphically demonstrate the three-dimensional temperature-dengue association. Generalised estimating equation models (GEE) with piecewise linear spline functions were used to quantify the temperature-dengue associations. Threshold values were estimated using a broken-stick model. Middle-aged and older people, people undertaking household duties, retirees, and those unemployed were at high risk of dengue. Reversed U-shaped non-linear associations were found between ambient temperature, relative humidity, extreme wind velocity, and dengue. The optimal maximum temperature (Tmax) range for dengue transmission in Guangzhou was 21.6-32.9°C, and 11.2-23.7°C for minimum temperature (Tmin). A 1°C increase of Tmaxand Tminwithin these ranges was associated with 11.9% and 9.9% increase in dengue at lag0, respectively. Although lag effects of temperature were observed for up to 141 days for Tmaxand 150 days for Tmin, the maximum lag effects were observed at 32 days and 39 days respectively. Average relative humidity was negatively associated with dengue when it exceeded 78.9%. Maximum wind velocity (>10.7m/s) inhibited dengue transmission. Climatic factors had significant impacts on dengue in Guangzhou. Lag effects of temperature on dengue lasted the local whole epidemic season. To reduce the likely increasing dengue burden, more efforts are needed to strengthen the capacity building of public health systems.
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
authors.forename: Jianjun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xiang
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
authors.forename: Alana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hansen
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
authors.forename: Qiyong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
authors.forename: Xiaobo
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
authors.forename: Michael Xiaoliang
authors.initials: MX
authors.lastname: Tong
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 230032, China.
authors.forename: Yehuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cameron
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hanson-Easey
authors.affiliation: Communications and Media Studies, School of Media, Film and Journalism, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia.
authors.forename: Gil-Soo
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Han
authors.affiliation: School of Pharmacy and Medical Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia 5001, Australia.
authors.forename: Craig
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Weinstein
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Unit, School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia. Electronic address: peng.bi@adelaide.edu.au.
authors.forename: Peng
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Bi
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008875:Middle Aged; D012621:Seasons; D014887:Weather; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Climate change; Dengue fever; Guangzhou; Infectious disease; Weather