title: Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change.
abstract: Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia.
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bush
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia.
authors.forename: Karel
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mokany
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia.|Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia.|School of Science and Health, Western Sydney University, Australia.
authors.forename: Renee
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Catullo
authors.affiliation: Melbourne University, Melbourne, Australia.
authors.forename: Ary
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hoffmann
authors.affiliation: Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
authors.forename: Vanessa
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kellermann
authors.affiliation: Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
authors.forename: Carla
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sgrò
authors.affiliation: Australian Museum, Sydney, Australia.
authors.forename: Shane
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: McEvey
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia.
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ferrier
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D005075:Biological Evolution; D057231:Climate Change; D004330:Drosophila / Q000235:genetics* / Q000502:physiology; D056084:Genetic Fitness; D008954:Models, Biological; D013045:Species Specificity
keywords: 
  Drosophila
  ; niche model; phenotypic plasticity; physiological tolerances; thermal tolerance