title: Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Aedesmosquitoes are responsible for transmitting the dengue virus. The mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate whether climatic factors could be used to predict the occurrence of dengue in East Delhi.
  
  
  METHODS
  The number of monthly dengue cases reported over 19 years was obtained from the laboratory records of our institution. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature, and humidity collected from a local weather station were correlated with the number of monthly reported dengue cases. One-way analysis of variance was used to analyse whether the climatic parameters differed significantly among seasons. Four models were developed using negative binomial generalized linear model analysis. Monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity, were used as independent variables, and the number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as the dependent variable. The first model considered data from the same month, while the other three models involved incorporating data with a lag phase of 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The greatest number of cases was reported during the post-monsoon period each year. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity varied significantly across the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. The best correlation between these three climatic factors and dengue occurrence was at a time lag of 2 months.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study found that temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity significantly affected dengue occurrence in East Delhi. This weather-based dengue empirical model can forecast potential outbreaks 2-month in advance, providing an early warning system for intensifying dengue control measures.
authors.affiliation: Department of Microbiology, University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital, Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Vishnampettai G
authors.initials: VG
authors.lastname: Ramachandran
authors.affiliation: Department of Microbiology, University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital, Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Priyamvada
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Roy
authors.affiliation: Department of Microbiology, University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital, Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Shukla
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Das
authors.affiliation: Department of Microbiology, University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital, Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Narendra Singh
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Mogha
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, University College of Medical Sciences and Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital, Delhi, India.
authors.forename: Ajay Kumar
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Bansal
mesh_terms: D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015994:Incidence; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011891:Rain; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013696:Temperature
keywords: Dengue; Empirical model; Humidity; Rainfall; Temperature