title: Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation.
abstract: Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors.
authors.affiliation: Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.|Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Government of Haryana, Panchkula, India.
authors.forename: Madhur S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Dhingra
authors.affiliation: Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Artois
authors.affiliation: Livestock Systems and Environment, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Timothy P
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-4266-963X
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Robinson
authors.affiliation: Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.|Department of Geography, Université de Namur, Namur, Belgium.
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Linard
authors.affiliation: Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Celia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Chaiban
authors.affiliation: Swiss-Prot and Vital-IT group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland.|Center for Integrative Genomics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Ioannis
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Xenarios
authors.affiliation: Swiss-Prot and Vital-IT group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Robin
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Engler
authors.affiliation: Swiss-Prot and Vital-IT group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Robin
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Liechti
authors.affiliation: Swiss-Prot and Vital-IT group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Dmitri
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kuznetsov
authors.affiliation: Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States.|Center for Spatial Analysis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, United States.|Institute of Biodiversity Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
authors.forename: Xiangming
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Animal Production and Health Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Sophie Von
authors.initials: SV
authors.lastname: Dobschuetz
authors.affiliation: Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases, FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand.
authors.forename: Filip
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Claes
authors.affiliation: Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Hanoi, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Scott H
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Newman
authors.affiliation: Animal Production and Health Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Gwenaëlle
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Dauphin
authors.affiliation: Spatial Epidemiology Lab, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.|Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Marius
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-3708-3359
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gilbert
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005544:Forecasting; D005838:Genotype; D014943:Global Health; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017720:Molecular Epidemiology; D011200:Poultry; D062206:Spatial Analysis
keywords: H5N1; avian influenza; chicken; epidemiology; global health; spatial epidemiology