title: Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To compare the time trends of Google search interest in methamphetamine and criminal offences related to this drug.
  
  
  METHODS
  Google Trends data for the search term "meth" was compared to methamphetamine-related crime statistics (incl. use, possession, and dealing) in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria for the years 2004-2016. Google data was availably monthly. Crime data was available yearly, and monthly values were imputed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  On the country level, internet search trends for "meth" roughly paralleled relevant criminal activity. State-level data, which was available for Austria, showed more heterogeneity. Cross-correlations for yearly data almost always peaked at a lag time of 0 and coefficients were mostly between 0.7 and 1.0 on the country level, and between 0.5 to 1.0 on the state level. Monthly cross-correlations based on imputed values were substantially lower, ranging from 0 to 0.6.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These results encourage the further evaluation by law enforcement authorities of Google search activity as a possible predictor of methamphetamine-related crime. However, several limitations, in particular the crude temporal resolution of available crime data, precluded a detailed assessment of the relationship between internet search trends and the development of methamphetamine-related crime in central Europe.
authors.affiliation: Department of Forensic Psychiatry, Institute of Forensic Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Alex
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7450-6544
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gamma
authors.affiliation: Department of Forensic Psychiatry, Institute of Forensic Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Roman
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Schleifer
authors.affiliation: Department of Forensic Toxicology and Chemistry, Institute of Forensic Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Weinmann
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics, Psychiatric Hospital, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Buadze
authors.affiliation: Department of Forensic Psychiatry, Institute of Forensic Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Liebrenz
mesh_terms: D019969:Amphetamine-Related Disorders; D001317:Austria; D003415:Crime / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany; D006801:Humans; D008694:Methamphetamine; D057386:Search Engine / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013557:Switzerland
chemical_list: D008694:Methamphetamine