title: Persistent northward North Atlantic tropical cyclone track migration over the past five centuries.
abstract: Accurately predicting future tropical cyclone risk requires understanding the fundamental controls on tropical cyclone dynamics. Here we present an annually-resolved 450-year reconstruction of western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity developed using a new coupled carbon and oxygen isotope ratio technique in an exceptionally well-dated stalagmite from Belize. Western Caribbean tropical cyclone activity peaked at 1650 A.D., coincident with maximum Little Ice Age cooling, and decreased gradually until the end of the record in 1983. Considered with other reconstructions, the new record suggests that the mean track of Cape Verde tropical cyclones shifted gradually north-eastward from the western Caribbean toward the North American east coast over the last 450 years. Since ~1870 A.D., these shifts were largely driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions. Our results strongly suggest that future emission scenarios will result in more frequent tropical cyclone impacts on the financial and population centres of the northeastern United States.
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: Lisa M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Baldini
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: James U L
authors.initials: JU
authors.lastname: Baldini
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: Jim N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: McElwaine
authors.affiliation: Department of Geosciences, Skidmore College, 815 North Broadway, Saratoga Springs, New York, 12866, USA.
authors.forename: Amy Benoit
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Frappier
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA.
authors.forename: Yemane
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Asmerom
authors.affiliation: Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.
authors.forename: Kam-Biu
authors.initials: KB
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA.
authors.forename: Keith M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Prufer
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: Harriet E
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Ridley
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA.
authors.forename: Victor
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Polyak
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802, USA.
authors.forename: Douglas J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Kennett
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
authors.forename: Colin G
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Macpherson
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87106, USA.
authors.forename: Valorie V
authors.initials: VV
authors.lastname: Aquino
authors.affiliation: Institute of Archaeology, Belmopan, Belize.|Department of Anthropology, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011-5200, USA.
authors.forename: Jaime
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Awe
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EQ, UK.|Institute for Geology, Mineralogy &Geophysics, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Unversitätsstr. 150, 44801, Bochum, Germany.
authors.forename: Sebastian F M
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Breitenbach