title: Structure in the variability of the basic reproductive number (R0) for Zika epidemics in the Pacific islands.
abstract: Before the outbreak that reached the Americas in 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) circulated in Asia and the Pacific: these past epidemics can be highly informative on the key parameters driving virus transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R0). We compare two compartmental models with different mosquito representations, using surveillance and seroprevalence data for several ZIKV outbreaks in Pacific islands (Yap, Micronesia 2007, Tahiti and Moorea, French Polynesia 2013-2014, New Caledonia 2014). Models are estimated in a stochastic framework with recent Bayesian techniques. R0 for the Pacific ZIKV epidemics is estimated between 1.5 and 4.1, the smallest islands displaying higher and more variable values. This relatively low range of R0 suggests that intervention strategies developed for other flaviviruses should enable as, if not more effective control of ZIKV. Our study also highlights the importance of seroprevalence data for precise quantitative analysis of pathogen propagation, to design prevention and control strategies.
authors.affiliation: IBENS, UMR 8197 CNRS-ENS Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France.|CREST, ENSAE, Université Paris Saclay, , France.
authors.forename: Clara
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-0369-6758
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Champagne
authors.affiliation: IBENS, UMR 8197 CNRS-ENS Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France.
authors.forename: David Georges
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Salthouse
authors.affiliation: Department of Genomes and Genetics, Institut Pasteur, Unité de Génétique Fonctionnelle des Maladies Infectieuses, Paris, France.|Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, URA 3012, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Paul
authors.affiliation: Unit of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Institut Louis Malardé, Tahiti, France.
authors.forename: Van-Mai
authors.initials: VM
authors.lastname: Cao-Lormeau
authors.affiliation: International Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems (UMMISCO), UPMC/IRD, Bondy cedex, France.
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Roche
authors.affiliation: IBENS, UMR 8197 CNRS-ENS Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France.|International Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems (UMMISCO), UPMC/IRD, Bondy cedex, France.
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7972-361X
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cazelles
mesh_terms: D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D058872:Epidemics; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010139:Pacific Islands / Q000453:epidemiology; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000453:epidemiology*
keywords: Basic reproductive number; Zika virus; bayesian inference; epidemiology; global health; none; stochastic dynamical models