title: Safety effects of the London cycle superhighways on cycle collisions.
abstract: This paper evaluates the effects of the London Cycle Superhighways (CS) on cycle collisions. A total of 45 CS segments and 375 control segments are observed for a period of 8 years in London. Variables such as road characteristics, crash history and socio-economic information are included in the data set. Traffic characteristics including traffic volume, cycle volume and traffic speed are obtained from Department for Transport. We first estimate the safety effects on the CS routes using Empirical Bayes methods. Then propensity score matching methods are also applied for comparison. The introduction of cycle superhighways caused cycling traffic volumes to increase dramatically along CS routes with no significant impacts on collision rates. Our models find that the increase in traffic was associated with a rise in annual total cycle collisions of around 2.6 per km (38% in percentage). However, when we re-estimate the effects based on cycle collision rates rather than levels, our results also show that the CS routes are not more dangerous or safer than the control roads. Among the four CS routes, CS3 performs the best in protecting cyclists with a large proportion of segregated lanes whilst the cyclists have to share the lanes with motorists on other routes. It is recommended that consistent safety designs should be applied on all CS routes for a safer cycling environment.
authors.affiliation: School of Transportation, Southeast University, China; Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, China. Electronic address: h.li@seu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Haojie
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College, London, UK.
authors.forename: Daniel J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Graham
authors.affiliation: School of Transportation, Southeast University, China; Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, China.
authors.forename: Pan
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control*; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000592:standards; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001642:Bicycling / Q000293:injuries*; D003617:Dangerous Behavior; D004779:Environment Design; D006801:Humans; D008131:London; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012307:Risk Factors; D012449:Safety / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Causal effects; Cycle collisions; London cycle superhighways