title: Exaggerated exercise blood pressure response in middle-aged men as a predictor of future blood pressure: a 10-year follow-up.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The prognostic value of an exaggerated exercise systolic blood pressure response (EESBPR) remains controversial. This study was designed to assess whether an EESBPR is associated with the predictor of future blood pressure.
  
  
  METHODS
  From an initial population of 1,534 male-subjects with normal BP or no medication who underwent ergometric exercise, 733 subjects (mean age: 41 years old) at baseline to follow-up BP after an average of 10 years were selected. A 12-min exercise tolerance test with three phases of estimated load from predictive maximum oxygen intake was performed at baseline, and exercise BP was measured.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Exercise BP response was classified by three group: Low group (G) (exercise SBP < 180 mmHg), Middle G (exercise BP:180-199 mmHg), High G (exercise BP:200 mmHg ≦). BP after 10 years in Low G was 123 ± 12/79 ± 7 mmHg, in Middle G:127 ± 13/81 ± 8 mmHg, in High G :134 ± 15/84 ± 10 mmHg. Compared with in Low G, BP after 10 years in High G significantly increased (p < 0.05). Multiple regression analysis was carried out to clarify the relationship of exercise SBP at baseline to BP after 10 years. In multivariate-adjusted models, the relationship of SBP at follow-up was stronger to exercise SBP (β = 0.271, P < 0.001) than to resting SBP (β = 0.148, P < 0.001). Maximum oxygen intake (β = -0.193, P = 0.003) and resting SBP correlated with SBP after 10 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In middle-aged men, exercise SBP would be a stronger predictor of future SBP, DBP rather than BP at rest. In optimal of classification of BP (SBP < 120 mmHg), exercise BP response was clearly associated with BP after 10 years.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Healthcare, NS Medical & Healthcare General Incorporated Foundation , Wakayama , Japan.
authors.forename: Katsuyuki
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ito
authors.affiliation: a Department of Healthcare, NS Medical & Healthcare General Incorporated Foundation , Wakayama , Japan.
authors.forename: Masataka
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Iwane
authors.affiliation: b School of Health and Nursing Sciences , Wakayama Medical University , Wakayama , Japan.
authors.forename: Nobuyuki
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Miyai
authors.affiliation: b School of Health and Nursing Sciences , Wakayama Medical University , Wakayama , Japan.
authors.forename: Yukiko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Uchikawa
authors.affiliation: a Department of Healthcare, NS Medical & Healthcare General Incorporated Foundation , Wakayama , Japan.
authors.forename: Koichi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mugitani
authors.affiliation: a Department of Healthcare, NS Medical & Healthcare General Incorporated Foundation , Wakayama , Japan.
authors.forename: Osamu
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Mohara
authors.affiliation: b School of Health and Nursing Sciences , Wakayama Medical University , Wakayama , Japan.
authors.forename: Mitsuru
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Shiba
authors.affiliation: b School of Health and Nursing Sciences , Wakayama Medical University , Wakayama , Japan.
authors.forename: Mikio
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Arita
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000502:physiology*; D001795:Blood Pressure Determination; D015444:Exercise / Q000502:physiology*; D005080:Exercise Test; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000503:physiopathology*; D015994:Incidence; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011379:Prognosis; D012146:Rest / Q000502:physiology
keywords: Exaggerated BP elevation; exercise; exercise SBP; future hypertension; hypertension