title: Cost-effectiveness of screening for ovarian cancer amongst postmenopausal women: a model-based economic evaluation.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) was the biggest ovarian cancer screening trial to date. A non-significant effect of screening on ovarian cancer was reported, but the authors noted a potential delayed effect of screening, and suggested the need for four years further follow-up. There are no UK-based cost-effectiveness analyses of ovarian cancer screening. Hence we assessed the lifetime outcomes associated with, and the cost-effectiveness of, screening for ovarian cancer in the UK, along with the value of further research.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a model-based economic evaluation. Effectiveness data were taken from UKCTOCS, which considered strategies of multimodal screening (MMS), ultrasound screening (USS) and no screening. We conducted systematic reviews to identify the remaining model inputs, and performed a rigorous and transparent prospective evaluation of different methods for extrapolating the effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality. We considered costs to the UK healthcare system and measured effectiveness using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We used value of information methods to estimate the value of further research.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Over a lifetime, MMS and USS were estimated to be both more expensive and more effective than no screening. USS was dominated by MMS, being both more expensive and less effective. Compared with no screening, MMS cost on average £419 more (95% confidence interval £255 to £578), and generated 0.047 more QALYs (0.002 to 0.088). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing MMS with no screening was £8864 per QALY (£2600 to £51,576). Alternative extrapolation methods increased the ICER, with the highest value being £36,769 (£13,888 to dominated by no screening). Using the UKCTOCS trial horizon, both MMS and USS were dominated by no screening, as they produced fewer QALYs at a greater cost. The value of research into eliminating all uncertainty in long-term effectiveness was estimated to be worth up to £20 million, or approximately £5 million for four years follow-up.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Screening for ovarian cancer with MMS is both more effective and more expensive than not screening. Compared to national willingness to pay thresholds, lifetime cost-effectiveness is promising, but there remains considerable uncertainty regarding extrapolated long-term effectiveness.
authors.affiliation: The University of Sheffield, Regent Court, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK. b.kearns@sheffield.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Ben
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7730-668X
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Kearns
authors.affiliation: The University of Sheffield, Regent Court, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK.
authors.forename: Jim
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chilcott
authors.affiliation: The University of Sheffield, Regent Court, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK.
authors.forename: Sophie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Whyte
authors.affiliation: The University of Sheffield, Regent Court, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK.
authors.forename: Louise
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Preston
authors.affiliation: The University of Sheffield, Regent Court, 30 Regent Street, Sheffield, S1 4DA, UK.|University of Exeter Medical School, St Luke's Campus, Heavitree Road, Exeter, EX1 2LU, UK.
authors.forename: Susi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sadler
mesh_terms: D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D055088:Early Detection of Cancer / Q000191:economics* / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D010051:Ovarian Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis*; D017698:Postmenopause; D011446:Prospective Studies; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D006113:United Kingdom
keywords: Early detection of cancer; Health economics; Mass screening; Ovarian neoplasm