title: Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine.
abstract: Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ciencias de la Computación y Electrónica, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Campus de la Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Calle San Cayetano Alto s/n, Loja 1101608, Ecuador. whernandez@utpl.edu.ec.
authors.forename: Wilmar
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Hernandez
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Matemática a las Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicaciones, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Av. Complutense Nº 30, 28040 Madrid, Spain. alfredo.mendez@upm.es.
authors.forename: Alfredo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Méndez
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ciencias de la Computación y Electrónica, Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Campus de la Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja, Calle San Cayetano Alto s/n, Loja 1101608, Ecuador. jlmaldonado7@utpl.edu.ec.
authors.forename: Jorge L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Maldonado-Correa
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Matemática a las Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicaciones, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Av. Complutense Nº 30, 28040 Madrid, Spain. francisco.ballesteros@upm.es.
authors.forename: Francisco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Balleteros
keywords: SCADA system; power curve; power-curve confidence band