title: A Bayesian Approach to Age-at-Death Estimation from Osteoarthritis of the Shoulder in Modern North Americans.
abstract: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a marker of degeneration within the skeleton, frequently associated with age. This study quantifies the correlation between OA and age-at-death and investigates the utility of shoulder OA as a forensic age indicator using a modern North American sample of 206 individuals. Lipping, surface porosity, osteophyte formation, eburnation, and percentage of joint surface affected were recorded on an ordinal scale and summed to create composite scores that were assigned a specific phase. Spearman's correlation indicated a positive relationship between each composite score and age (right shoulder = 0.752; left shoulder = 0.734). Transition analysis revealed a tendency toward earlier degeneration of the right shoulder. Bayesian statistics generated phase-related age estimates based on highest posterior density regions. Best age estimates were into the seventh decade at the 90th and 50th percentile. The proposed method supplements traditional techniques by providing age estimates beyond a homogenous 50+ age cohort.
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, 3413 North Downer Avenue, Sabin Hall 390, Milwaukee, WI, 53211.
authors.forename: Ashley L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Brennaman
authors.affiliation: Owner and Lead Consultant, K. R. Love Quantitative Consulting and Collaboration, 337 South Milledge Avenue, Suite 208, Athens, GA, 30605.
authors.forename: Kim R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Love
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, 33620.
authors.forename: Jonathan D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Bethard
authors.affiliation: Department of Anatomy & Neurobiology, Boston University School of Medicine, 72 East Concord Street, L 1004, Boston, MA, 02118.
authors.forename: James T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Pokines
mesh_terms: D000173:Acromioclavicular Joint / Q000473:pathology; D000328:Adult; D000365:Age Determination by Skeleton / Q000379:methods*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D018732:Forensic Anthropology; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009656:North America; D010003:Osteoarthritis / Q000473:pathology*; D054850:Osteophyte / Q000473:pathology; D016062:Porosity; D012785:Shoulder Joint / Q000473:pathology*; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Bayesian statistics; age estimation; degenerative joint disease; forensic anthropology; forensic science; shoulder; transition analysis