title: Effects of economics and demographics on global fisheries sustainability.
abstract: A good understanding of social factors that lead to marine ecological change is important to developing sustainable global fisheries. We used balanced panel models and conducted cross-national time-series analyses (1970-2010) of 122 nations to examine how economic prosperity and population growth affected the sustainability of marine ecosystems. We used catches in economic exclusive zone (EEZ); mean trophic level of fishery landings (MTL); primary production required to sustain catches (expressed as percentage of local primary production [%PPR]); and an index of ecosystem overfishing (i.e., the loss in secondary production index [L index]) as indicators of ecological change in marine ecosystems. The EEZ catch, %PPR, and L index declined gradually after gross domestic product (GDP) per capita reached $15,000, $14,000, and $19,000, respectively, and MTL increased steadily once GDP per capita exceeded $20,000. These relationships suggest that economic growth and biodiversity conservation are compatible goals. However, increasing human populations would degrade marine ecosystems. Specifically, a doubling of human population caused an increase in the %PPR of 17.1% and in the L index of 0.0254 and a decline in the MTL of 0.176. A 1% increase in human population resulted in a 0.744% increase in EEZ catch. These results highlight the importance of considering social and economic factors in developing sustainable fisheries management policy.
authors.affiliation: College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, China.|Collaborative Innovation Center for Distant-Water Fisheries, Shanghai, 201306, China.
authors.forename: Qi
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Ding
authors.affiliation: Institute of Finance and Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, 200433, China.
authors.forename: Yali
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, China.|Collaborative Innovation Center for Distant-Water Fisheries, Shanghai, 201306, China.|Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, China.|National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, China.
authors.forename: Xinjun
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Collaborative Innovation Center for Distant-Water Fisheries, Shanghai, 201306, China.|School of Marine Sciences, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Yong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D003710:Demography; D017753:Ecosystem; D005398:Fisheries; D005399:Fishes; D006801:Humans
keywords: balanced panel model; curva ambiental de Kuznet; ecological indicators; environmental Kuznet's curve; human population; indicadores económicos; marine fisheries; modelo de panel balanceado; pesquerías marinas; población humana