title: Validation of the prediction model for success of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery at the university hospital in Barcelona.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To validate the prediction model for successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) based on variables easily obtainable at the first antenatal visit, in a Spanish population.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective observational study. Women with a single live fetus in cephalic presentation with one previous low-transverse CD who underwent trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) at ≥37 gestational weeks between January 2011 and December 2015 were identified in the hospital's information system. Their antenatal medical records and delivery summary reports were reviewed and individual probabilities of successful VBAC were calculated, according to a previously published model. These probabilities were categorized into deciles. For calibration, each decile of predicted probabilities was compared to the observed rates. To assess the accuracy of the prediction model, receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In total, 630 women who underwent TOLAC had all required information and were included in the study. Among them, 450 (71.4%) women had successful VBAC. The AUC was 0.70 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.74).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Prediction ability of the validated model was in agreement with the original study.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Skåne University Hospital Malmö, Lund University , Sweden.
authors.forename: Anton
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Baranov
authors.affiliation: b BCNatal - Barcelona Center for Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine (Hospital Clínic and Hospital Sant Joan de Deu), IDIBAPS, University of Barcelona, and Centre for Biomedical Research on Rare Diseases (CIBER-ER) , Barcelona , Spain.
authors.forename: Eduard
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gratacós
authors.affiliation: a Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Skåne University Hospital Malmö, Lund University , Sweden.
authors.forename: Olga
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Vikhareva
authors.affiliation: b BCNatal - Barcelona Center for Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Medicine (Hospital Clínic and Hospital Sant Joan de Deu), IDIBAPS, University of Barcelona, and Centre for Biomedical Research on Rare Diseases (CIBER-ER) , Barcelona , Spain.
authors.forename: Francesc
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Figueras
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006785:Hospitals, University; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011247:Pregnancy; D011256:Pregnancy Outcome; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013030:Spain; D016064:Vaginal Birth after Cesarean
keywords: Cesarean delivery; prediction model; vaginal birth after cesarean delivery