title: Projections Of Dental Care Use Through 2026: Preventive Care To Increase While Treatment Will Decline.
abstract: This study provides a forward-thinking assessment of the factors likely to affect future trends in dental care in the United States. We developed a forecasting model based on historical data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to determine how demographic trends and recent health care policies will affect dental care use in the future. Our forecasts suggest that the medical and dental insurance reforms instituted under the Affordable Care Act will increase rates of dental care use and the number of dental visits, with utilization rates reaching 47 percent in 2026 and the number of visits reaching 334 million, under optimistic assumptions about take-up of pediatric dental coverage. Our forecasting model also indicates that visits for preventive dental care will increase in the future, while visits for dental treatment will decline. Our forecasts can be used to infer future need for different types of dental care providers and to provide policy makers with the information needed to consider the expansion of mandates for dental benefit coverage to adult populations covered by Medicaid, Medicare, and individual and small-group plans sold on health insurance exchanges.
authors.affiliation: Chad D. Meyerhoefer is an associate professor in the Department of Economics at Lehigh University, in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Chad D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Meyerhoefer
authors.affiliation: Irina Panovska is an assistant professor in the Department of Economics, Lehigh University.
authors.forename: Irina
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Panovska
authors.affiliation: Richard J. Manski (RManski@umaryland.edu) is a professor in and chair of the Department of Dental Public Health at the University of Maryland School of Dentistry, in Baltimore.
authors.forename: Richard J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Manski
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003729:Dental Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D019458:Insurance Coverage / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D007347:Insurance, Dental; D007348:Insurance, Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008875:Middle Aged; D009909:Oral Health / Q000639:trends*; D011313:Preventive Dentistry / Q000639:trends*; D014481:United States
keywords: dental; forecast; projections; utilization