title: Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.
abstract: Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO2. However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.
authors.affiliation: National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Simon J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: van Gennip
authors.affiliation: National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Ekaterina E
authors.initials: EE
authors.lastname: Popova
authors.affiliation: National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9879-2776
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Yool
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, PO Box 49, Hobart, Tas., 7001, Australia.
authors.forename: Gretta T
authors.initials: GT
authors.lastname: Pecl
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas., 7000, Australia.
authors.forename: Alistair J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Hobday
authors.affiliation: University of California, Irvine, 321 Steinhaus Hall, Irvine, CA, 92697-2525, USA.
authors.forename: Cascade J B
authors.initials: CJB
authors.lastname: Sorte
mesh_terms: D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D057232:Global Warming; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D012623:Seawater; D014872:Water Movements
chemical_list: D002245:Carbon Dioxide
keywords: climate change; coastal connectivity; ecosystems; global ocean circulation model; larval dispersal range