title: Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe.
abstract: Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmha-1h-1) compared to winter (87MJmmha-1h-1). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R2values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year.
authors.affiliation: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D - Sustainable Resources, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy. Electronic address: cristiano.ballabio@jrc.ec.europa.eu.
authors.forename: Cristiano
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ballabio
authors.affiliation: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D - Sustainable Resources, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy; Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Bernoullistrasse 30, CH-4056 Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Pasquale
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Borrelli
authors.affiliation: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D - Sustainable Resources, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Spinoni
authors.affiliation: Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Bernoullistrasse 30, CH-4056 Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Katrin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Meusburger
authors.affiliation: The Cyprus Institute, 20 Konstantinou Kavafi Street, CY-2121 Nicosia, Cyprus.
authors.forename: Silas
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Michaelides
authors.affiliation: Estación Experimental de Aula Dei, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (EEAD-CSIC), 50009 Zaragoza, Spain.
authors.forename: Santiago
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Beguería
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hydraulics and Rural Water Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Muthgasse 18, AT-1190 Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Klik
authors.affiliation: Slovenian Environment Agency, Hydrology and State of Environment Office, Cesta 4. julija 67, SI-8270, Krško, Slovenia.
authors.forename: Sašo
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Petan
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Praha, 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic.
authors.forename: Miloslav
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Janeček
authors.affiliation: Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Alle 20, 8830 Tjele, Denmark.
authors.forename: Preben
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Olsen
authors.affiliation: Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Juha
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Aalto
authors.affiliation: Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Kitaibel Pál Street 1, HU-1024, Budapest, Hungary.
authors.forename: Mónika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lakatos
authors.affiliation: UCD Dooge Centre for Water Resources Research, University College Dublin, Ireland.
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rymszewicz
authors.affiliation: Department of Climatology, National Meteorological Administration, Bucuresti-Ploiesti 97, RO-013686, Romania.
authors.forename: Alexandru
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dumitrescu
authors.affiliation: Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Gric 3, HR-10000, Zagreb, Croatia.
authors.forename: Melita Perčec
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Tadić
authors.affiliation: Met European Research Observatory, 82100 Benevento, Italy.
authors.forename: Nazzareno
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Diodato
authors.affiliation: Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Climatological service, Jeséniova 17, SK-83315 Bratislava, Slovakia.
authors.forename: Julia
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kostalova
authors.affiliation: Institute of Soil Science, Geotechnologies and Plant Protection, N. Poushkarov, Shosse Bankya Str. No7, BG-1336 Sofia, Bulgaria.
authors.forename: Svetla
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rousseva
authors.affiliation: Warsaw University of Life Sciences, ul. Nowoursynowska 166,Warsaw PL-02-787, Poland.
authors.forename: Kazimierz
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Banasik
authors.affiliation: Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Bernoullistrasse 30, CH-4056 Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Alewell
authors.affiliation: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D - Sustainable Resources, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy. Electronic address: panos.panagos@jrc.ec.europa.eu.
authors.forename: Panos
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Panagos
keywords: Cubist; K-means clustering; Modelling; R-factor; REDES; Seasonal rainfall intensity; Soil erosion