title: Climate variation drives dengue dynamics.
abstract: Dengue, a viral infection transmitted between people by mosquitoes, is one of the most rapidly spreading diseases in the world. Here, we report the analyses covering 11 y (2005-2015) from the city of Guangzhou in southern China. Using the first 8 y of data to develop an ecologically based model for the dengue system, we reliably predict the following 3 y of dengue dynamics-years with exceptionally extensive dengue outbreaks. We demonstrate that climate conditions, through the effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito abundance and dengue transmission rate, play key roles in explaining the temporal dynamics of dengue incidence in the human population. Our study thus contributes to a better understanding of dengue dynamics and provides a predictive tool for preventive dengue reduction strategies.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China.|Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Leif C
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Stige
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242.
authors.forename: Kung-Sik
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Chan
authors.affiliation: Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Shaowei
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sang
authors.affiliation: Tropical Diseases Research Base of State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Tropical Diseases Research Base of State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Zhicong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Tropical Diseases Research Base of State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Ziqiang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Tong
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Yujuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yue
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xiaobo
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Hualiang
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China; n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no xujianguo@icdc.cn liuqiyong@icdc.cn.
authors.forename: Jianguo
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China; n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no xujianguo@icdc.cn liuqiyong@icdc.cn.|Shandong University Climate Change and Health Center, Jinan 250012, People's Republic of China.|World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management Beijing 102206, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Qiyong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway; n.c.stenseth@ibv.uio.no xujianguo@icdc.cn liuqiyong@icdc.cn.
authors.forename: Nils Chr
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Stenseth
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology*; D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D003716:Dengue Virus / Q000472:pathogenicity; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011891:Rain; D013696:Temperature
keywords: climate; dengue; prediction; structural equation model; zero-inflated generalized additive models