title: Risk management for optimal land use planning integrating ecosystem services values: A case study in Changsha, Middle China.
abstract: Land-use change has direct impact on ecosystem services and alters ecosystem services values (ESVs). Ecosystem services analysis is beneficial for land management and decisions. However, the application of ESVs for decision-making in land use decisions is scarce. In this paper, a method, integrating ESVs to balance future ecosystem-service benefit and risk, is developed to optimize investment in land for ecological conservation in land use planning. Using ecological conservation in land use planning in Changsha as an example, ESVs is regarded as the expected ecosystem-service benefit. And uncertainty of land use change is regarded as risk. This method can optimize allocation of investment in land to improve ecological benefit. The result shows that investment should be partial to Liuyang City to get higher benefit. The investment should also be shifted from Liuyang City to other regions to reduce risk. In practice, lower limit and upper limit for weight distribution, which affects optimal outcome and selection of investment allocation, should be set in investment. This method can reveal the optimal spatial allocation of investment to maximize the expected ecosystem-service benefit at a given level of risk or minimize risk at a given level of expected ecosystem-service benefit. Our results of optimal analyses highlight tradeoffs between future ecosystem-service benefit and uncertainty of land use change in land use decisions.
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Hunan University, Ministry of Education, Changsha 410082, PR China. Electronic address: liangjie@hnu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liang
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Hunan University, Ministry of Education, Changsha 410082, PR China.
authors.forename: Minzhou
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zhong
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Hunan University, Ministry of Education, Changsha 410082, PR China. Electronic address: zgming@hnu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Guangming
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.affiliation: College of Mathematics and Econometrics, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China.
authors.forename: Gaojie
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Hunan University, Ministry of Education, Changsha 410082, PR China.
authors.forename: Shanshan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hua
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Hunan University, Ministry of Education, Changsha 410082, PR China.
authors.forename: Xiaodong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Hunan University, Ministry of Education, Changsha 410082, PR China.
authors.forename: Yujie
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yuan
authors.affiliation: Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan, 430010, PR China.
authors.forename: Haipeng
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, PR China; Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control, Hunan University, Ministry of Education, Changsha 410082, PR China.
authors.forename: Xiang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Gao
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D012308:Risk Management; D035501:Uncertainty
keywords: Changsha; Ecosystems services values; Land use change; Land use planning; Urbanization