title: Development and validation of risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in postpartum women: multinational cohort study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop and validate a risk prediction model for venous thromboembolism in the first six weeks after delivery (early postpartum).
  
  
  METHODS
  Cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Records from England based Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and data from Sweden based registry.
  
  
  METHODS
  All pregnant women registered with CPRD-HES linked data between 1997 and 2014 and Swedish medical birth registry between 2005 and 2011 with postpartum follow-up.
  
  
  METHODS
  Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to develop a risk prediction model for postpartum venous thromboembolism based on the English data, which was externally validated in the Swedish data.
  
  
  RESULTS
  433 353 deliveries were identified in the English cohort and 662 387 in the Swedish cohort. The absolute rate of venous thromboembolism was 7.2 per 10 000 deliveries in the English cohort and 7.9 per 10 000 in the Swedish cohort. Emergency caesarean delivery, stillbirth, varicose veins, pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, postpartum infection, and comorbidities were the strongest predictors of venous thromboembolism in the final multivariable model. Discrimination of the model was similar in both cohorts, with a C statistic above 0.70, with excellent calibration of observed and predicted risks. The model identified more venous thromboembolism events than the existing national English (sensitivity 68% v 63%) and Swedish guidelines (30% v 21%) at similar thresholds.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A new prediction model that quantifies absolute risk of postpartum venous thromboembolism has been developed and externally validated. It is based on clinical variables that are available in many developed countries at the point of delivery and could serve as the basis for real time decisions on obstetric thromboprophylaxis.
authors.affiliation: Research Institute of Primary Care and Health Sciences, Keele University, Keele ST5 5BG, UK.|Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham, City Hospital, Nottingham NG5 1PB, UK.|Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Alyshah Abdul
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Sultan
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham, City Hospital, Nottingham NG5 1PB, UK.
authors.forename: Joe
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: West
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham, City Hospital, Nottingham NG5 1PB, UK.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Grainge
authors.affiliation: Research Institute of Primary Care and Health Sciences, Keele University, Keele ST5 5BG, UK.
authors.forename: Richard D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Riley
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham, City Hospital, Nottingham NG5 1PB, UK.
authors.forename: Laila J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Tata
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Solna, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.|Department of Women's and Children's Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Olof
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Stephansson
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham, City Hospital, Nottingham NG5 1PB, UK.|Public Health Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool L3 2ET, UK.
authors.forename: Kate M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Fleming
authors.affiliation: Women's Health Academic Centre, Guy's & St Thomas' Foundation Trust, St Thomas' Hospital, London SE1 7EH, UK.
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Nelson-Piercy
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Nottingham, City Hospital, Nottingham NG5 1PB, UK.|Department of Paediatrics, Örebro University Hospital, Örebro, Sweden.
authors.forename: Jonas F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Ludvigsson
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002585:Cesarean Section / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015897:Comorbidity; D004461:Eclampsia / Q000453:epidemiology; D004630:Emergencies / Q000453:epidemiology; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011225:Pre-Eclampsia / Q000453:epidemiology; D011247:Pregnancy; D011644:Puerperal Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011645:Puerperal Infection / Q000453:epidemiology; D011655:Pulmonary Embolism / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D050497:Stillbirth / Q000453:epidemiology; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology; D014648:Varicose Veins / Q000453:epidemiology; D054556:Venous Thromboembolism / Q000453:epidemiology*; D020246:Venous Thrombosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D055815:Young Adult