title: The role of symptomatic presentation in influenza A transmission risk.
abstract: Computer models can be useful in planning interventions against novel strains of influenza. However such models sometimes make unsubstantiated assumptions about the relative infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, or conversely assume there is no impact at all. Using household-level data from known-index studies of virologically confirmed influenza A infection, the relationship between an individual's infectiousness and their symptoms was quantified using a discrete-generation transmission model and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. It was found that the presence of particular respiratory symptoms in an index case does not influence transmission probabilities, with the exception of child-to-child transmission where the donor has phlegm or a phlegmy cough.
authors.affiliation: Global Health Division,Research School of Population Health,College of Medicine, Biology and the Environment,The Australian National University,Canberra,Australia.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wardell
authors.affiliation: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health,National University of Singapore and National University Health System,Singapore.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Prem
authors.affiliation: WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control,School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine,The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China.
authors.forename: B J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Cowling
authors.affiliation: Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health,National University of Singapore and National University Health System,Singapore.
authors.forename: A R
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-6271-5832
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Cook
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000473:pathology* / Q000635:transmission*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Bayesian statistics; influenza A; modelling; symptoms; transmission