title: Re-assessment of net energy production and greenhouse gas emissions avoidance after 40 years of photovoltaics development.
abstract: Since the 1970s, installed solar photovoltaic capacity has grown tremendously to 230 gigawatt worldwide in 2015, with a growth rate between 1975 and 2015 of 45%. This rapid growth has led to concerns regarding the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of photovoltaics production. We present a review of 40 years of photovoltaics development, analysing the development of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions associated with photovoltaics production. Here we show strong downward trends of environmental impact of photovoltaics production, following the experience curve law. For every doubling of installed photovoltaic capacity, energy use decreases by 13 and 12% and greenhouse gas footprints by 17 and 24%, for poly- and monocrystalline based photovoltaic systems, respectively. As a result, we show a break-even between the cumulative disadvantages and benefits of photovoltaics, for both energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, occurs between 1997 and 2018, depending on photovoltaic performance and model uncertainties.
authors.affiliation: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Atse
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-0595-8720
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Louwen
authors.affiliation: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Wilfried G J H M
authors.initials: WG
authors.lastname: van Sark
authors.affiliation: Energy &Sustainability Research Institute, University of Groningen, Blauwborgje 6, P.O.Box 9700 AE Groningen, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: André P C
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Faaij
authors.affiliation: Plasma &Material Processing, Department of Applied Physics, Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e), P.O. Box 513, 5600MB Eindhoven, the Netherlands.
authors.forename: Ruud E I
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Schropp