title: A critical review of the ESCAPE project for estimating long-term health effects of air pollution.
abstract: The European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) is a13-nation study of long-term health effects of air pollution based on subjects pooled from up to 22 cohorts that were intended for other purposes. Twenty-five papers have been published on associations of various health endpoints with long-term exposures to NOx, NO2, traffic indicators, PM10, PM2.5 and PM constituents including absorbance (elemental carbon). Seven additional ESCAPE papers found moderate correlations (R2=0.3-0.8) between measured air quality and estimates based on land-use regression that were used; personal exposures were not considered. I found no project summaries or comparisons across papers; here I conflate the 25 ESCAPE findings in the context of other recent European epidemiology studies. Because one ESCAPE cohort contributed about half of the subjects, I consider it and the other 18 cohorts separately to compare their contributions to the combined risk estimates. I emphasize PM2.5 and confirm the published hazard ratio of 1.14 (1.04-1.26) per 10μg/m3 for all-cause mortality. The ESCAPE papers found 16 statistically significant (p<0.05) risks among the125 pollutant-endpoint combinations; 4 each for PM2.5 and PM10, 1 for PM absorbance, 5 for NO2, and 2 for traffic. No PM constituent was consistently significant. No significant associations were reported for cardiovascular mortality; low birthrate was significant for all pollutants except PM absorbance. Based on associations with PM2.5, I find large differences between all-cause death estimates and the sum of specific-cause death estimates. Scatterplots of PM2.5 mortality risks by cause show no consistency across the 18 cohorts, ostensibly because of the relatively few subjects. Overall, I find the ESCAPE project inconclusive and I question whether the efforts required to estimate exposures for small cohorts were worthwhile. I suggest that detailed studies of the large cohort using historical exposures and additional cardiovascular risk factors might be productive.
authors.affiliation: Greenport, NY, United States. Electronic address: fred.lipfert@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Frederick W
authors.initials: FW
authors.lastname: Lipfert
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000032:analysis; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D018570:Risk Assessment; D018401:Sample Size; D013223:Statistics as Topic
keywords: Air pollution; Epidemiology; Exposure analysis; Long-term; Mortality