title: Quantum Decision Theory in Simple Risky Choices.
abstract: Quantum decision theory (QDT) is a recently developed theory of decision making based on the mathematics of Hilbert spaces, a framework known in physics for its application to quantum mechanics. This framework formalizes the concept of uncertainty and other effects that are particularly manifest in cognitive processes, which makes it well suited for the study of decision making. QDT describes a decision maker's choice as a stochastic event occurring with a probability that is the sum of an objective utility factor and a subjective attraction factor. QDT offers a prediction for the average effect of subjectivity on decision makers, the quarter law. We examine individual and aggregated (group) data, and find that the results are in good agreement with the quarter law at the level of groups. At the individual level, it appears that the quarter law could be refined in order to reflect individual characteristics. This article revisits the formalism of QDT along a concrete example and offers a practical guide to researchers who are interested in applying QDT to a dataset of binary lotteries in the domain of gains.
authors.affiliation: ETH Zürich, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Maroussia
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Favre
authors.affiliation: Collegium Helveticum, University of Zurich and ETH Zurich, Schmelzbergstrasse 25, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Amrei
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wittwer
authors.affiliation: ETH Zürich, Future Resilient Systems at the Singapore-ETH Centre (SEC), Singapore, Singapore.
authors.forename: Hans Rudolf
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Heinimann
authors.affiliation: ETH Zürich, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.|Bogolubov Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna 141980, Russia.
authors.forename: Vyacheslav I
authors.initials: VI
authors.lastname: Yukalov
authors.affiliation: ETH Zürich, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Scheuchzerstrasse 7, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland.|Swiss Finance Institute, c/o University of Geneva, 40 blvd. Du Pont d'Arve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Didier
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Sornette
mesh_terms: D003657:Decision Making; D006801:Humans; D011336:Probability; D011789:Quantum Theory