title: Simplified Early Predictors of Severe Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To propose simple tests for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), which are accurate and could be performed at emergency departments and outpatient clinics.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective study was performed on 149 patients admitted with acute pancreatitis. Body mass index (BMI), plain chest radiograph, blood biochemical data were obtained at the time of admission; white cell, lymphocyte and platelet counts, hematocrit level, prothrombin time, PaO2, creatinine, calcium, blood sugar, total protein, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, amylase, lipase and C-reaction protein were determined. Patients were graded into severe and mild acute pancreatitis based on CT Balthazar grading system.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Twenty-seven patients were diagnosed to have SAP and 122 patients considered mild acute pancreatitis. Comparing parameters between both groups; significant factors (P < 0.05) were blood sugar level, haematocrit level, BMI and presence of pleural effusion in chest X-ray. The hematocrit at admission and at approximately 24 hours was significantly higher among patients with SAP. Twenty-two of 27 cases of severe disease and only 10 of 122 cases of mild acute pancreatitis diagnosed to have pleural effusion (P < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  BMI, blood glucose ≥ 190 mg/dL, hematocrit level ≥ 43 % and pleural effusion detected by plain chest radiograph are simple tests and provide significant predictive power for clinical decision-making.
authors.affiliation: Internal Medicine Department, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt.
authors.forename: Maha Mohammed
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Maher
authors.affiliation: Radiodiagnosis Department, Menoufeya University, Menoufeya, Egypt.
authors.forename: Basma Abdel Moneim
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Dessouky
keywords: CT Balthazar grading system; Severe acute pancreatitis