title: Mitigation Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture and Land-Use Change: Consequences for Food Prices.
abstract: The land use sector of agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) plays a central role in ambitious climate change mitigation efforts. Yet, mitigation policies in agriculture may be in conflict with food security related targets. Using a global agro-economic model, we analyze the impacts on food prices under mitigation policies targeting either incentives for producers (e.g., through taxes) or consumer preferences (e.g., through education programs). Despite having a similar reduction potential of 43-44% in 2100, the two types of policy instruments result in opposite outcomes for food prices. Incentive-based mitigation, such as protecting carbon-rich forests or adopting low-emission production techniques, increase land scarcity and production costs and thereby food prices. Preference-based mitigation, such as reduced household waste or lower consumption of animal-based products, decreases land scarcity, prevents emissions leakage, and concentrates production on the most productive sites and consequently lowers food prices. Whereas agricultural emissions are further abated in the combination of these mitigation measures, the synergy of strategies fails to substantially lower food prices. Additionally, we demonstrate that the efficiency of agricultural emission abatement is stable across a range of greenhouse-gas (GHG) tax levels, while resulting food prices exhibit a disproportionally larger spread.
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.|Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin) , Berlin, D-10623, Germany.
authors.forename: Miodrag
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-1799-186X
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stevanović
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Popp
authors.affiliation: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.|Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) , St Lucia, 4067 Qld, Australia.
authors.forename: Benjamin Leon
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: Bodirsky
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Florian
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-2927-9407
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Humpenöder
authors.affiliation: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Müller
authors.affiliation: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.|Technology Assessment and Substance Cycles, Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (ATB) , Potsdam, D-14469, Germany.
authors.forename: Isabelle
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Weindl
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Jan Philipp
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Dietrich
authors.affiliation: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.|Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (HU Berlin) , Berlin, D-10099, Germany.
authors.forename: Hermann
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lotze-Campen
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.|Economics of Climate Change, Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin) , Berlin, D-10623, Germany.
authors.forename: Ulrich
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Kreidenweis
authors.affiliation: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Susanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rolinski
authors.affiliation: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Biewald
authors.affiliation: Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) , Potsdam, D-14412, Germany.|Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (HU Berlin) , Berlin, D-10099, Germany.
authors.forename: Xiaoxi
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D005523:Food Supply; D016468:Forestry; D017752:Greenhouse Effect