title: Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication.
abstract: Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of yaws transmission varying the coverage and number of rounds of treatment. The estimated number of cases arising from an index case (basic reproduction number [R0]) ranged from 1.08 to 3.32. To have 80% probability of achieving eradication, 8 rounds of treatment with 80% coverage were required at low estimates of R0(1.45). This requirement increased to 95% at high estimates of R0(2.47). Extending the treatment interval to 12 months increased requirements at all estimates of R0. At high estimates of R0with 12 monthly rounds of treatment, no combination of variables achieved eradication. Models should be used to guide the scale-up of yaws eradication.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Marks
authors.forename: Oriol
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Mitjà
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Fitzpatrick
authors.forename: Kingsley
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Asiedu
authors.forename: Anthony W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Solomon
authors.forename: David C W
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Mabey
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Funk
mesh_terms: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D017963:Azithromycin / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D060740:Disease Eradication / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D015233:Models, Statistical; D058069:Neglected Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D012008:Recurrence; D014210:Treponema pallidum / Q000472:pathogenicity / Q000502:physiology; D014329:Tropical Climate; D015001:Yaws / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents; D017963:Azithromycin
keywords: MDA; NTDs; Treponema pallidum; bacteria; bacterial infection; eradication; mass drug administration; mathematical modelling; neglected tropical diseases; yaws