title: Predictors of Mortality in People with Recent-onset Gout: A Prospective Observational Study.
abstract: To determine mortality rates and predictors of death at baseline in people with a recent onset of gout.
  
  
  
  People with gout disease duration < 10 years were recruited from primary and secondary care settings. Comprehensive clinical assessment was completed at baseline. Participants were prospectively followed for at least 1 year. Information about death was systematically collected from primary and secondary health records. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated and risk factors for mortality were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard regression models.
  
  
  
  The mean (SD) followup duration was 5.1 (1.6) years (a total 1511 patient-yrs accrued). Of the 295 participants, 43 (14.6%) had died at the time of censorship (SMR 1.96, 95% CI 1.44-2.62). In the reduced Cox proportional hazards model, these factors were independently associated with an increased risk of death from all causes: older age (70-80 yrs: HR 9.96, 95% CI 3.30-30.03; 80-91 yrs: HR 9.39, 95% CI 2.68-32.89), Māori or Pacific ethnicity (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.17-5.29), loop diuretic use (HR 3.99, 95% CI 2.15-7.40), serum creatinine (per 10µmol/l change; HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07), and the presence of subcutaneous tophi (HR 2.85, 95% CI 1.49-5.44). The presence of subcutaneous tophi was the only baseline variable independently associated with both cardiovascular (CV) cause of death (HR 3.13, 95% CI 1.38-7.10) and non-CV cause of death (HR 3.48, 95% CI 1.25-9.63).
  
  
  
  People with gout disease duration < 10 years have an increased risk of death. The presence of subcutaneous tophi at baseline is an independent predictor of mortality, from both CV and non-CV causes.
authors.affiliation: From the Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland; Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.|Z.L. Vincent, PhD, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; G. Gamble, MSc, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; M. House, MPH, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; J. Knight, BA, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; A. Horne, MBChB, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; W.J. Taylor, PhD, FRACP, Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington; N. Dalbeth, MD, FRACP, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland.
authors.forename: Zoë L
authors.initials: ZL
authors.lastname: Vincent
authors.affiliation: From the Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland; Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.|Z.L. Vincent, PhD, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; G. Gamble, MSc, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; M. House, MPH, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; J. Knight, BA, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; A. Horne, MBChB, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; W.J. Taylor, PhD, FRACP, Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington; N. Dalbeth, MD, FRACP, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland.
authors.forename: Greg
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Gamble
authors.affiliation: From the Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland; Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.|Z.L. Vincent, PhD, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; G. Gamble, MSc, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; M. House, MPH, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; J. Knight, BA, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; A. Horne, MBChB, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; W.J. Taylor, PhD, FRACP, Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington; N. Dalbeth, MD, FRACP, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland.
authors.forename: Meaghan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: House
authors.affiliation: From the Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland; Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.|Z.L. Vincent, PhD, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; G. Gamble, MSc, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; M. House, MPH, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; J. Knight, BA, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; A. Horne, MBChB, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; W.J. Taylor, PhD, FRACP, Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington; N. Dalbeth, MD, FRACP, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland.
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Knight
authors.affiliation: From the Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland; Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.|Z.L. Vincent, PhD, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; G. Gamble, MSc, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; M. House, MPH, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; J. Knight, BA, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; A. Horne, MBChB, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; W.J. Taylor, PhD, FRACP, Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington; N. Dalbeth, MD, FRACP, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland.
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Horne
authors.affiliation: From the Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland; Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.|Z.L. Vincent, PhD, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; G. Gamble, MSc, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; M. House, MPH, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; J. Knight, BA, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; A. Horne, MBChB, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; W.J. Taylor, PhD, FRACP, Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington; N. Dalbeth, MD, FRACP, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland.
authors.forename: William J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.affiliation: From the Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland; Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand. n.dalbeth@auckland.ac.nz.|Z.L. Vincent, PhD, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; G. Gamble, MSc, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; M. House, MPH, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; J. Knight, BA, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; A. Horne, MBChB, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland; W.J. Taylor, PhD, FRACP, Department of Medicine, University of Otago Wellington; N. Dalbeth, MD, FRACP, Bone and Joint Research Group, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland. n.dalbeth@auckland.ac.nz.
authors.forename: Nicola
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Dalbeth
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D006073:Gout / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014527:Uric Acid / Q000097:blood
chemical_list: D014527:Uric Acid; D003404:Creatinine
keywords: EATH; GOUT; MORTALITY; TOPHUS