title: Assessing the potential for Bluetongue virus 8 to spread and vaccination strategies in Scotland.
abstract: Europe has seen frequent outbreaks of Bluetongue (BT) disease since 2006, including an outbreak of BT virus serotype 8 in central France during 2015 that has continued to spread in Europe during 2016. Thus, assessing the potential for BTv-8 spread and determining the optimal deployment of vaccination is critical for contingency planning. We developed a spatially explicit mathematical model of BTv-8 spread in Scotland and explored the sensitivity of transmission to key disease spread parameters for which detailed empirical data is lacking. With parameters at mean values, there is little spread of BTv-8 in Scotland. However, under a "worst case" but still feasible scenario with parameters at the limits of their ranges and temperatures 1 °C warmer than the mean, we find extensive spread with 203,000 sheep infected given virus introduction to the south of Scotland between mid-May and mid-June. Strategically targeted vaccine interventions can greatly reduce BT spread. Specifically, despite BT having most clinical impact in sheep, we show that vaccination can have the greatest impact on reducing BTv infections in sheep when administered to cattle, which has implications for disease control policy.
authors.affiliation: The Roslin Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, EH25 9RG, UK.
authors.forename: Paul R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Bessell
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, EH26 0QB, UK.
authors.forename: Kate R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Searle
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology Research Unit, Future Farming Systems Group, Scotland's Rural College (SRUC), An Lòchran, Inverness Campus, Inverness, IV2 5NA, UK.
authors.forename: Harriet K
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Auty
authors.affiliation: Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, The University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, EH25 9RG, UK.
authors.forename: Ian G
authors.initials: IG
authors.lastname: Handel
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: Bethan V
authors.initials: BV
authors.lastname: Purse
authors.affiliation: The Roslin Institute, The University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush, EH25 9RG, UK.
authors.forename: B Mark de C
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Bronsvoort
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D001820:Bluetongue virus; D002417:Cattle; D008954:Models, Biological; D012606:Scotland; D012756:Sheep; D014611:Vaccination