title: Inflation-predictable behavior and co-eruption deformation at Axial Seamount.
abstract: Deformation of the ground surface at active volcanoes provides information about magma movements at depth. Improved seafloor deformation measurements between 2011 and 2015 documented a fourfold increase in magma supply and confirmed that Axial Seamount's eruptive behavior is inflation-predictable, probably triggered by a critical level of magmatic pressure. A 2015 eruption was successfully forecast on the basis of this deformation pattern and marked the first time that deflation and tilt were captured in real time by a new seafloor cabled observatory, revealing the timing, location, and volume of eruption-related magma movements. Improved modeling of the deformation suggests a steeply dipping prolate-spheroid pressure source beneath the eastern caldera that is consistent with the location of the zone of highest melt within the subcaldera magma reservoir determined from multichannel seismic results.
authors.affiliation: University of North Carolina Wilmington, Wilmington, NC 28403, USA. nooners@uncw.edu.
authors.forename: Scott L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Nooner
authors.affiliation: Oregon State University/Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR 97365, USA.
authors.forename: William W
authors.initials: WW
authors.lastname: Chadwick