title: Short-term changes on MRI predict long-term changes on radiography in rheumatoid arthritis: an analysis by an OMERACT Task Force of pooled data from four randomised controlled trials.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), MRI provides earlier detection of structural damage than radiography (X-ray) and more sensitive detection of intra-articular inflammation than clinical examination. This analysis was designed to evaluate the ability of early MRI findings to predict subsequent structural damage by X-ray.
  
  
  METHODS
  Pooled data from four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving 1022 RA hands and wrists in early and established RA were analysed. X-rays were scored using van der Heijde-modified or Genant-modified Sharp methods. MRIs were scored using Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) RA MRI Score (RAMRIS). Data were analysed at the patient level using multivariable logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Progression of MRI erosion scores at Weeks 12 and 24 predicted progression of X-ray erosions at Weeks 24 and 52, with areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.64 and 0.74, respectively. 12-week and 24-week changes in MRI osteitis scores were similarly predictive of 24-week and 52-week X-ray erosion progressions; pooled AUCs were 0.78 and 0.77, respectively. MRI changes in synovitis at Weeks 12 and 24 also predicted progression of X-ray joint damage (erosion and joint-space narrowing) at Weeks 24 and 52 (AUCs=0.72 and 0.65, respectively).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Early changes in joint damage and inflammation detected with MRI predict changes in joint damage evident on subsequent X-rays. These findings support the use of MRI as a valid method for monitoring structural damage in short-duration RCTs.
authors.affiliation: Spire Sciences, Inc., Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
authors.forename: Charles
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Peterfy
authors.affiliation: Division of Immunology/Rheumatology, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA.
authors.forename: Vibeke
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Strand
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA.
authors.forename: Lu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: Copenhagen Center for Arthritis Research, Center for Rheumatology and Spine Diseases, Glostrup, Denmark.|Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Mikkel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Østergaard
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA.
authors.forename: Ying
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.affiliation: Spire Sciences, Inc., Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: DiCarlo
authors.affiliation: Spire Sciences, Inc., Boca Raton, Florida, USA.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Countryman
authors.affiliation: Division of Arthritis & Rheumatic Diseases (OPO9), Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon, USA.
authors.forename: Atul
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2130-1246
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Deodhar
authors.affiliation: Amsterdam Rheumatology & Immunology Center (ARC)(AMC), Amsterdam, The Netherlands.|Zuyderland Medical Center, Heerlen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Landewé
authors.affiliation: Division of Rheumatology, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA.|David Geffen School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California, USA.
authors.forename: Veena K
authors.initials: VK
authors.lastname: Ranganath
authors.affiliation: The Doctors of Saint John's Medical Group, Providence Saint John's Health Center, Santa Monica, California, USA.|Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Orrin
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Troum
authors.affiliation: Leeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.|NIHR Leeds Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Unit, Leeds, UK.
authors.forename: Philip G
authors.initials: PG
authors.lastname: Conaghan
mesh_terms: D019540:Area Under Curve; D001172:Arthritis, Rheumatoid / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D006801:Humans; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D010000:Osteitis / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D011859:Radiography; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013997:Time Factors; D014955:Wrist Joint / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*
keywords: Magnetic Resonance Imaging; Outcomes research; Rheumatoid Arthritis