title: A simple web-based risk calculator (www.anastomoticleak.com) is superior to the surgeon's estimate of anastomotic leak after colon cancer resection.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Anastomotic leak can be a devastating complication, and early prediction is difficult. The aim of this study is to prospectively validate a simple anastomotic leak risk calculator and compare its predictive value with the estimate of the primary operating surgeon.
  
  
  METHODS
  Consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency colon cancer surgery with a primary anastomosis over a 1-year period were prospectively included. A recently published anastomotic leak risk nomogram was converted to an online calculator ( www.anastomoticleak.com ). The calculator-derived risk of anastomotic leak and the risk estimated by the primary operating surgeon were recorded at the completion of surgery. The primary outcome was anastomotic leak within 90 days as defined by previously published criteria. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (AUROC) was performed for both risk estimates.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 105 patients were screened for inclusion during the study period, of whom 83 met the inclusion criteria. The overall anastomotic leak rate was 9.6%. The anastomotic leak calculator was highly predictive of anastomotic leak (AUROC 0.84, P = 0.002), whereas the surgeon estimate was not predictive (AUROC 0.40, P = 0.243).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A simple anastomotic leak risk calculator is significantly better at predicting anastomotic leak than the estimate of the primary surgeon. Further external validation on a larger data set is required.
authors.affiliation: Colorectal Unit, Department of Surgery, Royal Adelaide Hospital, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA, 5000, Australia. tarik.sammour@gmail.com.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sammour
authors.affiliation: Colorectal Unit, Department of Surgery, Royal Adelaide Hospital, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA, 5000, Australia.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lewis
authors.affiliation: Colorectal Unit, Department of Surgery, Royal Adelaide Hospital, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA, 5000, Australia.
authors.forename: M L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.affiliation: Colorectal Unit, Department of Surgery, Royal Adelaide Hospital, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA, 5000, Australia.
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Lawrence
authors.affiliation: Colorectal Unit, Department of Surgery, Royal Adelaide Hospital, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA, 5000, Australia.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hunter
authors.affiliation: Colorectal Unit, Department of Surgery, Royal Adelaide Hospital, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA, 5000, Australia.
authors.forename: J W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Moore
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D057868:Anastomotic Leak / Q000209:etiology*; D019540:Area Under Curve; D003110:Colonic Neoplasms / Q000601:surgery*; D003107:Colorectal Surgery / Q000379:methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D020407:Internet; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: Anastomotic leak; Colon cancer; Risk calculator