title: Modeling Day-to-day Flow Dynamics on Degradable Transport Network.
abstract: Stochastic link capacity degradations are common phenomena in transport network which can cause travel time variations and further can affect travelers' daily route choice behaviors. This paper formulates a deterministic dynamic model, to capture the day-to-day (DTD) flow evolution process in the presence of degraded link capacity degradations. The aggregated network flow dynamics are driven by travelers' study of uncertain travel time and their choice of risky routes. This paper applies the exponential-smoothing filter to describe travelers' study of travel time variations, and meanwhile formulates risk attitude parameter updating equation to reflect travelers' endogenous risk attitude evolution schema. In addition, this paper conducts theoretical analyses to investigate several significant mathematical characteristics implied in the proposed DTD model, including fixed point existence, uniqueness, stability and irreversibility. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the DTD model and verify some important dynamic system properties.
authors.affiliation: Zhejiang Institute of Communications, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, P.R. China.|Energy Conversation and Emission Reduction Management Center of Zhejiang Provincial Communication Department, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Bo
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Research Center of Intelligent Transportation System, School of Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Ronghui
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Xiaoming
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Lou
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D002138:Calibration; D002755:Choice Behavior; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012306:Risk; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013997:Time Factors; D014186:Transportation