title: Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015.
abstract: Zika, a mosquito-borne viral disease that emerged in South America in 2015, was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO in February of 2016. We developed a climate-driven R0mathematical model for the transmission risk of Zika virus (ZIKV) that explicitly includes two key mosquito vector species: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus The model was parameterized and calibrated using the most up to date information from the available literature. It was then driven by observed gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for the period 1950-2015. We find that the transmission risk in South America in 2015 was the highest since 1950. This maximum is related to favoring temperature conditions that caused the simulated biting rates to be largest and mosquito mortality rates and extrinsic incubation periods to be smallest in 2015. This event followed the suspected introduction of ZIKV in Brazil in 2013. The ZIKV outbreak in Latin America has very likely been fueled by the 2015-2016 El Niño climate phenomenon affecting the region. The highest transmission risk globally is in South America and tropical countries where Ae. aegypti is abundant. Transmission risk is strongly seasonal in temperate regions where Ae. albopictus is present, with significant risk of ZIKV transmission in the southeastern states of the United States, in southern China, and to a lesser extent, over southern Europe during the boreal summer season.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool CH64 7TE, United Kingdom; Cyril.Caminade@liverpool.ac.uk.|Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Cyril
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Caminade
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool CH64 7TE, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Joanne
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Turner
authors.affiliation: Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, United Kingdom.|Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Soeren
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Metelmann
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool CH64 7TE, United Kingdom.|Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology, Zoonosis Science Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala 751 23, Sweden.
authors.forename: Jenny C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Hesson
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool CH64 7TE, United Kingdom.|Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Marcus S C
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Blagrove
authors.affiliation: Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, United Kingdom.|Department of Clinical Infection, Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7BE, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Solomon
authors.affiliation: Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, United Kingdom.|Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Andrew P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Morse
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool CH64 7TE, United Kingdom.|Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GL, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Baylis
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes; D000818:Animals; D059000:El Nino-Southern Oscillation; D000882:Haplorhini; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D000072138:Mosquito Vectors; D012306:Risk; D014454:Uganda; D000071244:Zika Virus; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000635:transmission*
keywords: Ae. aegypti; Ae. albopictus; El Niño; R0 model; Zika virus