title: Comparison of approaches for incorporating new information into existing risk prediction models.
abstract: We compare the calibration and variability of risk prediction models that were estimated using various approaches for combining information on new predictors, termed 'markers', with parameter information available for other variables from an earlier model, which was estimated from a large data source. We assess the performance of risk prediction models updated based on likelihood ratio (LR) approaches that incorporate dependence between new and old risk factors as well as approaches that assume independence ('naive Bayes' methods). We study the impact of estimating the LR by (i) fitting a single model to cases and non-cases when the distribution of the new markers is in the exponential family or (ii) fitting separate models to cases and non-cases. We also evaluate a new constrained maximum likelihood method. We study updating the risk prediction model when the new data arise from a cohort and extend available methods to accommodate updating when the new data source is a case-control study. To create realistic correlations between predictors, we also based simulations on real data on response to antiviral therapy for hepatitis C. From these studies, we recommend the LR method fit using a single model or constrained maximum likelihood. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences and Mathematics, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Sonja
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Grill
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences and Mathematics, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany.|Department of Urology, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Donna P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Ankerst
authors.affiliation: National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, 20892, Maryland, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Mitchell H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Gail
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Nilanjan
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Chatterjee
authors.affiliation: National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, 20892, Maryland, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Ruth M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Pfeiffer
mesh_terms: D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D006526:Hepatitis C / Q000188:drug therapy; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents
keywords: calibration; discrimination; independence Bayes; model updating; risk prediction