title: Probabilistic Cause-of-death Assignment using Verbal Autopsies.
abstract: In regions without complete-coverage civil registration and vital statistics systems there is uncertainty about even the most basic demographic indicators. In such regions the majority of deaths occur outside hospitals and are not recorded. Worldwide, fewer than one-third of deaths are assigned a cause, with the least information available from the most impoverished nations. In populations like this, verbal autopsy (VA) is a commonly used tool to assess cause of death and estimate cause-specific mortality rates and the distribution of deaths by cause. VA uses an interview with caregivers of the decedent to elicit data describing the signs and symptoms leading up to the death. This paper develops a new statistical tool known asInSilicoVAto classify cause of death using information acquired through VA. InSilicoVA shares uncertainty between cause of death assignments for specific individuals and the distribution of deaths by cause across the population. Using side-by-side comparisons with both observed and simulated data, we demonstrate that InSilicoVA has distinct advantages compared to currently available methods.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of Washington; Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS), University of Washington; Department of Sociology, University of Washington.
authors.forename: Tyler H
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: McCormick
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of Washington.
authors.forename: Zehang Richard
authors.initials: ZR
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; ALPHA Network, London.
authors.forename: Clara
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Calvert
authors.affiliation: ALPHA Network, London; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Karonga Prevention Study, Malawi.
authors.forename: Amelia C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Crampin
authors.affiliation: MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand; INDEPTH Network, Ghana.
authors.forename: Kathleen
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kahn
authors.affiliation: Department of Sociology, University of Washington; Institute of Behavioral Science (IBS), University of Colorado at Boulder; MRC/Wits Rural Public Health and Health Transitions Research Unit (Agincourt), School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand; ALPHA Network, London; INDEPTH Network, Ghana.
authors.forename: Samuel J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Clark