title: Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
abstract: Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.
authors.affiliation: Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands; martin.vanittersum@wur.nl.
authors.forename: Martin K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: van Ittersum
authors.affiliation: Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Lenny G J
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: van Bussel
authors.affiliation: Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Joost
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wolf
authors.affiliation: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915.
authors.forename: Patricio
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Grassini
authors.affiliation: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915.
authors.forename: Justin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: van Wart
authors.affiliation: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915.
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Guilpart
authors.affiliation: International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, 00623 Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Lieven
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Claessens
authors.affiliation: Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Hugo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: de Groot
authors.affiliation: Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC 20006-1002.
authors.forename: Keith
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Wiebe
authors.affiliation: Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC 20006-1002.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-0673-2301
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Mason-D'Croz
authors.affiliation: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915.
authors.forename: Haishun
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Hendrik
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Boogaard
authors.affiliation: Africa Rice Center, Sustainable Productivity Enhancement Program, 01 BP 2031, Cotonou, Benin.|Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Pepijn A J
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: van Oort
authors.affiliation: Plant Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Marloes P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: van Loon
authors.affiliation: Africa Rice Center, Sustainable Productivity Enhancement Program, 01 BP 2031, Cotonou, Benin.
authors.forename: Kazuki
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Saito
authors.affiliation: Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, 00200 Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Ochieng
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Adimo
authors.affiliation: International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Tamale, Ghana.
authors.forename: Samuel
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Adjei-Nsiah
authors.affiliation: AGRHYMET Regional Centre, BP 11011 Niamey, Niger.
authors.forename: Alhassane
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Agali
authors.affiliation: Department of Soil Science, Federal University of Technology Minna, P.M.B 65 Gidan-Kwano, Niger State, Nigeria.
authors.forename: Abdullahi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bala
authors.affiliation: Crop Science Department, University of Zimbabwe, MP167 Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe.
authors.forename: Regis
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Chikowo
authors.affiliation: National Agricultural Research Laboratories, Kampala Nabweru 7065, Uganda.
authors.forename: Kayuki
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kaizzi
authors.affiliation: Institut d'Economie Rurale, BP 258 Bamako, Mali.
authors.forename: Mamoutou
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kouressy
authors.affiliation: National Irrigation Commission, Ministry of Water and Irrigation, 14473 Dar es Salaam, The United Republic of Tanzania.
authors.forename: Joachim H J R
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Makoi
authors.affiliation: Institut de l'Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles, 04 BP: 8645 Ouagadougou 04, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
authors.forename: Korodjouma
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ouattara
authors.affiliation: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
authors.forename: Kindie
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Tesfaye
authors.affiliation: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915.
authors.forename: Kenneth G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Cassman
mesh_terms: D017954:Africa South of the Sahara; D000383:Agriculture; D000465:Algorithms; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D002523:Edible Grain; D005523:Food Supply; D006801:Humans; D052756:Nutritional Sciences; D012044:Regression Analysis
keywords: cereals; food availability; food security; food self-sufficiency; yield gaps