title: A Stochastic Model for the Ethanol Pharmacokinetics.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The aim of this study was to propose a new stochastic model to study the time course of ethanol elimination in human bodies.
  
  
  METHODS
  The times and amount of alcohol ingested are assumed to be random in controllable intervals. Constant elimination rate follows zero order kinetics and is replaced by first order kinetics when the effects of alcohol increase due to alcohol ingestion. Simulation studies of three different models were made to compare the statistical characteristics of the ethanol effects obtained using analytical expressions. For each model, three cases were considered depending on the drinking pattern and by classifying the drinker as heavy, normal or sparse.
  
  
  RESULTS
  From the model formulation, we noted that as the rate of drinking increases for a given elimination rate, the expected time between overflows goes towards zero. Furthermore, as the average amount of alcohol in each drink increases, the corresponding time between overflows decreases.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Variations in times of alcohol intakes as well as the amount of alcohol consumption can be accounted through the final created formula. The model proves that overflows occur when alcohol is ingested before the adverse effects of alcohol from the previous drink are completely eliminated. Being the first stochastic model of such a kind, we do hope that it will throw more light on interpreting experimental data of alcohol abuse.
authors.affiliation: Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Eastern Mediterranean University Famagusta, TRNC Mersin 10, Turkey.
authors.forename: Mazyar
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ghadirinejad
authors.affiliation: Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Eastern Mediterranean University Famagusta, TRNC Mersin 10, Turkey.
authors.forename: Emine
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Atasoylu
authors.affiliation: Dept. of Industrial Engineering, Eastern Mediterranean University Famagusta, TRNC Mersin 10, Turkey.
authors.forename: Gökhan
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Izbirak
authors.affiliation: Dept. of Tourism Management, Eastern Mediterranean University Famagusta, TRNC Mersin 10, Turkey.
authors.forename: Matina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gha-Semi
keywords: Alcohol ingestion; Elimination rate; First order kinetics; Multiple doses; Overflow; Zero order kinetics