title: Predicting risk of substantial weight gain in German adults-a multi-center cohort approach.
abstract: A risk-targeted prevention strategy may efficiently utilize limited resources available for prevention of overweight and obesity. Likewise, more efficient intervention trials could be designed if selection of subjects was based on risk. The aim of the study was to develop a risk score predicting substantial weight gain among German adults.
  
  
  
  We developed the risk score using information on 15 socio-demographic, dietary and lifestyle factors from 32 204 participants of five population-based German cohort studies. Substantial weight gain was defined as gaining ≥10% of weight between baseline and follow-up (>6 years apart). The cases were censored according to the theoretical point in time when the threshold of 10% baseline-based weight gain was crossed assuming linearity of weight gain. Beta coefficients derived from proportional hazards regression were used as weights to compute the risk score as a linear combination of the predictors. Cross-validation was used to evaluate the score's discriminatory accuracy.
  
  
  
  The cross-validated c index (95% CI) was 0.71 (0.67-0.75). A cutoff value of ≥475 score points yielded a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 63%. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 10.4% and 97.6%, respectively.
  
  
  
  The proposed risk score may support healthcare providers in decision making and referral and facilitate an efficient selection of subjects into intervention trials.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany.
authors.forename: Ursula
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Bachlechner
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany.
authors.forename: Heiner
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Boeing
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Marjolein
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Haftenberger
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Anja
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Schienkiewitz
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Christa
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Scheidt-Nave
authors.affiliation: Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Susanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Vogt
authors.affiliation: Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Barbara
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Thorand
authors.affiliation: Institute of Epidemiology II, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Annette
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Peters
authors.affiliation: Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.|German Centre for Diabetes Research, Site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
authors.forename: Sabine
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Schipf
authors.affiliation: Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
authors.forename: Till
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ittermann
authors.affiliation: Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.|German Centre for Diabetes Research, Site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.|German Centre for Cardiovascular Research, Partner Site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
authors.forename: Henry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Völzke
authors.affiliation: Department of Nutrition and Food Science, Institute for Nutrition and Food Science, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-University Bonn, Bonn, Germany.
authors.forename: Ute
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Nöthlings
authors.affiliation: Department of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Jasmine
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Neamat-Allah
authors.affiliation: Department of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Karin-Halina
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Greiser
authors.affiliation: Department of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Rudolf
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kaaks
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany.
authors.forename: Annika
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Steffen
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004032:Diet / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008019:Life Style; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D050177:Overweight / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors; D015430:Weight Gain; D055815:Young Adult