title: Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010-2015).
abstract: We review behavioural change models (BCMs) for infectious disease transmission in humans. Following the Cochrane collaboration guidelines and the PRISMA statement, our systematic search and selection yielded 178 papers covering the period 2010-2015. We observe an increasing trend in published BCMs, frequently coupled to (re)emergence events, and propose a categorization by distinguishing how information translates into preventive actions. Behaviour is usually captured by introducing information as a dynamic parameter (76/178) or by introducing an economic objective function, either with (26/178) or without (37/178) imitation. Approaches using information thresholds (29/178) and exogenous behaviour formation (16/178) are also popular. We further classify according to disease, prevention measure, transmission model (with 81/178 population, 6/178 metapopulation and 91/178 individual-level models) and the way prevention impacts transmission. We highlight the minority (15%) of studies that use any real-life data for parametrization or validation and note that BCMs increasingly use social media data and generally incorporate multiple sources of information (16/178), multiple types of information (17/178) or both (9/178). We conclude that individual-level models are increasingly used and useful to model behaviour changes. Despite recent advancements, we remain concerned that most models are purely theoretical and lack representative data and a validation process.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium frederik.verelst@uantwerpen.be.
authors.forename: Frederik
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-8399-743X
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Verelst
authors.affiliation: Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
authors.forename: Lander
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9210-1196
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Willem
authors.affiliation: Centre for Health Economics Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.|School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5034-3595
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Beutels
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D007239:Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D008954:Models, Biological
keywords: behaviour; game theory; individual-based; infectious disease; model; vaccination