title: Prediction of the Total Liver Weight using anthropological clinical parameters: does complexity result in better accuracy?
abstract: The performance of linear models predicting Total Liver Weight (TLW) remains moderate. The use of more complex models such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) or including the variable "steatosis" may improve TLW prediction. This study aimed to assess the value of ANN and GAM and the influence of steatosis for predicting TLW.
  
  
  
  Basic clinical and morphological variables of 1560 cadaveric donors for liver transplantation were randomly split into a training (2/3) and validation set (1/3). Linear models, ANN and GAM were built by using the training cohort and evaluated with the validation cohort.
  
  
  
  The TLW is subject to major variations among donors with similar morphological parameters. The performance of ANN and GAM were moderate and similar to that of linear models (concordance coefficient from 0.36 to 0.44). In 28-30% of cases, TLW cannot be predicted with a margin of error ≤20%. The addition of the variable "steatosis" to each model did not improve their performance.
  
  
  
  TLW prediction based on anthropological parameters carry a significant risk of error despite the use of more complex models. Others determinants of TLW need to be identified and imaging-based volumetric measurements should be preferred when feasible.
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France; University of Paris-Sud, Villejuif, F-94800, France; INSERM, Unit UMRS776, Villejuif, F-94800, France. Electronic address: marcantoineallard@yahoo.fr.
authors.forename: Marc-Antoine
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Allard
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France.
authors.forename: Gaëlle
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Baillié
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France; INSERM, Unit 1193, Villejuif, F-94800, France.
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Castro-Benitez
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France.
authors.forename: Matthieu
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Faron
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France.
authors.forename: Frédérique
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Blandin
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France; INSERM, Unit 1193, Villejuif, F-94800, France; University of Paris-Sud, Villejuif, F-94800, France.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Cherqui
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France; INSERM, Unit 1193, Villejuif, F-94800, France; University of Paris-Sud, Villejuif, F-94800, France.
authors.forename: Denis
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Castaing
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France; INSERM, Unit 1193, Villejuif, F-94800, France; University of Paris-Sud, Villejuif, F-94800, France.
authors.forename: Antonio Sa
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Cunha
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France; University of Paris-Sud, Villejuif, F-94800, France; INSERM, Unit UMRS776, Villejuif, F-94800, France.
authors.forename: René
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Adam
authors.affiliation: Centre Hépato-Biliaire, Paul Brousse Hospital, AP-HP, Villejuif, F-94800, France; INSERM, Unit 1193, Villejuif, F-94800, France; University of Paris-Sud, Villejuif, F-94800, France.
authors.forename: Éric
authors.initials: É
authors.lastname: Vibert
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001706:Biopsy; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005234:Fatty Liver / Q000473:pathology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008099:Liver / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D016031:Liver Transplantation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer; D009929:Organ Size; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D014019:Tissue Donors; D055815:Young Adult