title: Stochastic modelling of infectious diseases for heterogeneous populations.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Infectious diseases such as SARS and H1N1 can significantly impact people's lives and cause severe social and economic damages. Recent outbreaks have stressed the urgency of effective research on the dynamics of infectious disease spread. However, it is difficult to predict when and where outbreaks may emerge and how infectious diseases spread because many factors affect their transmission, and some of them may be unknown.
  
  
  METHODS
  One feasible means to promptly detect an outbreak and track the progress of disease spread is to implement surveillance systems in regional or national health and medical centres. The accumulated surveillance data, including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information can provide valuable information that can be exploited to better understand and model the dynamics of infectious disease spread. The aim of this work is to develop and empirically evaluate a stochastic model that allows the investigation of transmission patterns of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We test the proposed model on simulation data and apply it to the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. In the simulation experiment, our model achieves high accuracy in parameter estimation (less than 10.0 % mean absolute percentage error). In terms of the forward prediction of case incidence, the mean absolute percentage errors are 17.3 % for the simulation experiment and 20.0 % for the experiment on the real surveillance data.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We propose a stochastic model to study the dynamics of infectious disease spread in heterogeneous populations from temporal-spatial surveillance data. The proposed model is evaluated using both simulated data and the real data from the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Hong Kong and achieves acceptable prediction accuracy. We believe that our model can provide valuable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of disease spread and analyse its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts.
authors.affiliation: School of Statistics & Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Rui-Xing
authors.initials: RX
authors.lastname: Ming
authors.affiliation: Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Ji-Ming
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: William K
authors.initials: WK
authors.lastname: W Cheung
authors.affiliation: Department of Computer Science & Institute of Theoretical and Computational Study, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong. xwan@comp.hkbu.edu.hk.
authors.forename: Xiang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wan
mesh_terms: D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology / Q000635:transmission; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006723:Hong Kong; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000502:physiology*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013269:Stochastic Processes
keywords: Epidemiology; Spread pattern; Stochastic model; Surveillance system