title: The costs of production of alternative jet fuel: A harmonized stochastic assessment.
abstract: This study quantifies and compares the costs of production for six alternative jet fuel pathways using consistent financial and technical assumptions. Uncertainty was propagated through the analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. The six processes assessed were HEFA, advanced fermentation, Fischer-Tropsch, aqueous phase processing, hydrothermal liquefaction, and fast pyrolysis. The results indicate that none of the six processes would be profitable in the absence of government incentives, with HEFA using yellow grease, HEFA using tallow, and FT revealing the lowest mean jet fuel prices at $0.91/liter ($0.66/liter-$1.24/liter), $1.06/liter ($0.79/liter-$1.42/liter), and $1.15/liter ($0.95/liter-$1.39/liter), respectively. This study also quantifies plant performance in the United States with a Renewable Fuel Standard policy analysis. Results indicate that some pathways could achieve positive NPV with relatively high likelihood under existing policy supports, with HEFA and FPH revealing the highest probability of positive NPV at 94.9% and 99.7%, respectively, in the best-case scenario.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge 02139, MA, United States.
authors.forename: Seamus J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Bann
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge 02139, MA, United States; Center for Environmental Sciences, Hasselt University, Martelarenlaan 42, 3500 Hasselt, Belgium. Electronic address: robert.malina@uhasselt.be.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Malina
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge 02139, MA, United States.
authors.forename: Mark D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Staples
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge 02139, MA, United States.
authors.forename: Pooja
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Suresh
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge 02139, MA, United States.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pearlson
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, 403 W. State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States.
authors.forename: Wallace E
authors.initials: WE
authors.lastname: Tyner
authors.affiliation: United States Federal Aviation Administration, 800 Independence Avenue, S.W, Washington, D.C, United States.
authors.forename: James I
authors.initials: JI
authors.lastname: Hileman
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge 02139, MA, United States.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Barrett
mesh_terms: D056804:Biofuels / Q000191:economics*; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D006838:Hydrocarbons / Q000191:economics*; D057766:Policy; D011336:Probability; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D056804:Biofuels; D006838:Hydrocarbons
keywords: Alternative jet fuel; Monte-Carlo simulation; Renewable Fuel Standard; Techno-economic analysis; United States alternative fuel policy