title: Malaria Modeling in the Era of Eradication.
abstract: Mathematical models provide the essential basis of rational research and development strategies in malaria, informing the choice of which technologies to target, which deployment strategies to consider, and which populations to focus on. The Internet and remote sensing technologies also enable assembly of ever more relevant field data. Together with supercomputing technology, this has made available timely descriptions of the geography of malaria transmission and disease across the world and made it possible for policy and planning to be informed by detailed simulations of the potential impact of intervention programs. These information technology advances do not replace the basic understanding of the dynamics of malaria transmission that should be embedded in the thinking of anyone planning malaria interventions. The appropriate use of modeling may determine whether we are living in an era of hubris or indeed in an age of eradication.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel CH 4002, Switzerland; and University of Basel, Basel CH 4001, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Thomas A
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3650-9381
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel CH 4002, Switzerland; and University of Basel, Basel CH 4001, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Nakul
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Chitnis
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel CH 4002, Switzerland; and University of Basel, Basel CH 4001, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Melissa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Penny
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel CH 4002, Switzerland; and University of Basel, Basel CH 4001, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Marcel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tanner
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D009033:Culicidae / Q000469:parasitology / Q000502:physiology*; D004463:Ecology; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D008288:Malaria / Q000635:transmission*; D008962:Models, Theoretical