title: Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement.
abstract: Increasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km2of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning.
authors.affiliation: NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Ocean Chemistry and Ecosystems Division, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA.|Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA.
authors.forename: Ruben
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: van Hooidonk
authors.affiliation: SymbioSeas and the Marine Applied Research Center, Wilmington NC, 28411, USA.|Laboratoire d'Excellence «CORAIL» USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE, CRIOBE, Papetoai, Moorea, Polynésie Française.
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Maynard
authors.affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme, Bangkok, Thailand.
authors.forename: Jerker
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tamelander
authors.affiliation: Ecosystems and Oceanography Program, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, 1845 Wasp Blvd Building 176, Honolulu, HI 96818, USA.
authors.forename: Jamison
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gove
authors.affiliation: Oceans, World Wildlife Fund, 1250 24th St., Washington, D.C. 20037, USA.
authors.forename: Gabby
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Ahmadia
authors.affiliation: University of Guam Marine Laboratory, UOG Station, Mangilao, GU 96913, USA.
authors.forename: Laurie
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Raymundo
authors.affiliation: School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey LL59 5AB, UK.
authors.forename: Gareth
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: NOAA Coral Reef Watch, NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research, 5830 University Research Ct., E/RA3, College Park, MD 20740, USA.|Global Science and Technology Inc., Greenbelt, MD 20770, USA.|Marine Geophysical Laboratory, Physics Department, College of Science, Technology and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4814, Australia.
authors.forename: Scott F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Heron
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Excellence «CORAIL» USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE, CRIOBE, Papetoai, Moorea, Polynésie Française.
authors.forename: Serge
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Planes
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants; D000818:Animals; D037421:Anthozoa; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D057894:Coral Reefs; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D011640:Public Policy; D012984:Software; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants