title: Age structure is critical to the population dynamics and survival of honeybee colonies.
abstract: Age structure is an important feature of the division of labour within honeybee colonies, but its effects on colony dynamics have rarely been explored. We present a model of a honeybee colony that incorporates this key feature, and use this model to explore the effects of both winter and disease on the fate of the colony. The model offers a novel explanation for the frequently observed phenomenon of 'spring dwindle', which emerges as a natural consequence of the age-structured dynamics. Furthermore, the results indicate that a model taking age structure into account markedly affects the predicted timing and severity of disease within a bee colony. The timing of the onset of disease with respect to the changing seasons may also have a substantial impact on the fate of a honeybee colony. Finally, simulations predict that an infection may persist in a honeybee colony over several years, with effects that compound over time. Thus, the ultimate collapse of the colony may be the result of events several years past.
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics , Western University , London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5B7.
authors.forename: M I
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: Betti
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics , Western University , London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5B7.
authors.forename: L M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Wahl
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5B7; Department of Medical Biophysics, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 5B7.
authors.forename: M
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-1950-3663
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zamir
keywords: honeybee colony age structure; honeybee colony dynamics; honeybee survival; reproduction number; spring dwindle