title: Climate change and epidemics in Chinese history: A multi-scalar analysis.
abstract: This study seeks to provide further insight regarding the relationship of climate-epidemics in Chinese history through a multi-scalar analysis. Based on 5961 epidemic incidents in China during 1370-1909 CE we applied Ordinary Least Square regression and panel data regression to verify the climate-epidemic nexus over a range of spatial scales (country, macro region, and province). Results show that epidemic outbreaks were negatively correlated with the temperature in historical China at various geographic levels, while a stark reduction in the correlational strength was observed at lower geographic levels. Furthermore, cooling drove up epidemic outbreaks in northern and central China, where population pressure reached a clear threshold for amplifying the vulnerability of epidemic outbreaks to climate change. Our findings help to illustrate the modifiable areal unit and the uncertain geographic context problems in climate-epidemics research. Researchers need to consider the scale effect in the course of statistical analyses, which are currently predominantly conducted on a national/single scale; and also the importance of how the study area is delineated, an issue which is rarely discussed in the climate-epidemics literature. Future research may leverage our results and provide a cross-analysis with those derived from spatial analysis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and International Center for China Development Studies, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong. Electronic address: harrylee@hku.hk.
authors.forename: Harry F
authors.initials: HF
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Centre for Historical Geographical Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fei
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and International Center for China Development Studies, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Christopher Y S
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Chan
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Sciences, The Education University of Hong Kong, 10 Lo Ping Road, Tai Po, New Territories, Hong Kong; School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China.
authors.forename: Qing
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Pei
authors.affiliation: School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China.
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Jia
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and International Center for China Development Studies, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Ricci P H
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Yue
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D057231:Climate Change / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000266:history* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D049668:History, 15th Century; D049669:History, 16th Century; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049691:History, Medieval; D006801:Humans; D055904:Meteorology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D062206:Spatial Analysis
keywords: China; Climate change; Epidemics; Multi-scalar analysis; Spatial scales; Temperature