title: The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation.
abstract: Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom; s.durant@ucl.ac.uk.|Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460.|Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Sarah M
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-0724-0878
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Durant
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.|Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460.
authors.forename: Nicholas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Mitchell
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.|Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460.
authors.forename: Rosemary
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Groom
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.|Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Nathalie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Pettorelli
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.|Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460.
authors.forename: Audrey
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ipavec
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.|Department of Geography, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Andrew P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Jacobson
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.|Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Rosie
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Woodroffe
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.|Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Monika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Böhm
authors.affiliation: Panthera, New York, NY 10018.
authors.forename: Luke T B
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9653-6544
authors.initials: LT
authors.lastname: Hunter
authors.affiliation: Zambian Carnivore Programme, Mfuwe, Zambia.|Conservation Biology and Ecology Program, Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717.
authors.forename: Matthew S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Becker
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13 5QL, United Kingdom.|Mara Cheetah Project, Kenya Wildlife Trust, Kenya.
authors.forename: Femke
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Broekhuis
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Sultana
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bashir
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Port Elizabeth 6031, South Africa.
authors.forename: Leah
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Andresen
authors.affiliation: Bwabwata Ecological Institute, Susuwe Park Station, Zambezi Region, Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Namibia.
authors.forename: Ortwin
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Aschenborn
authors.affiliation: Office National du Parc Culturel du Tassili N'Ajjer, Djanet, Algeria.
authors.forename: Mohammed
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Beddiaf
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Écologie et Environnement, Université de Béjaïa, Béjaïa, Algeria.
authors.forename: Farid
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9155-9808
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Belbachir
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Écologie et Environnement, Université de Béjaïa, Béjaïa, Algeria.
authors.forename: Amel
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-6463-3294
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Belbachir-Bazi
authors.affiliation: Nature Conservation Department, Environment General Authority (EGA), Tripoli, Libya.
authors.forename: Ali
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Berbash
authors.affiliation: Institute of Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture, Luanda, Angola.
authors.forename: Iracelma
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Brandao de Matos Machado
authors.affiliation: Carnivore Ecology and Wildlife Management (KORA), 3074 Muri, Switzerland.|International Union for the Conservation of Nature/Species Survival Commission Cat Specialist Group, 3074 Muri, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Christine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Breitenmoser
authors.affiliation: Kenya Wildlife Service, 00100 Nairobi, Kenya.
authors.forename: Monica
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Chege
authors.affiliation: Cheetah Outreach Trust, Paardevlei, South Africa.
authors.forename: Deon
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Cilliers
authors.affiliation: Endangered Wildlife Trust, Johannesburg, South Africa.
authors.forename: Harriet
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Davies-Mostert
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13 5QL, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Amy J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Dickman
authors.affiliation: Department of Wildlife Management and Ecotourism, University of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia.
authors.forename: Fabiano
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ezekiel
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13 5QL, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Mohammad S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Farhadinia
authors.affiliation: Panthera, New York, NY 10018.
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Funston
authors.affiliation: Panthera, New York, NY 10018.
authors.forename: Philipp
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Henschel
authors.affiliation: Cheetah Conservation Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Jane
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Horgan
authors.affiliation: Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Hans H
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: de Iongh
authors.affiliation: Persian Wildlife Heritage Foundation, Tehran 15856-86341, Iran.|Conservation of Asiatic Cheetah Program, Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Houman
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Jowkar
authors.affiliation: Cheetah Conservation Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Rebecca
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Klein
authors.affiliation: Panthera, New York, NY 10018.
authors.forename: Peter Andrew
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Lindsey
authors.affiliation: Cheetah Conservation Fund, Otjiwarongo, Namibia.
authors.forename: Laurie
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Marker
authors.affiliation: Endangered Wildlife Trust, Johannesburg, South Africa.
authors.forename: Kelly
authors.initials: K
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authors.affiliation: Department Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, 10315 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Joerg
authors.initials: J
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authors.affiliation: Zambian Carnivore Programme, Mfuwe, Zambia.
authors.forename: Johnathan
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authors.affiliation: Department of National Parks and Wildlife, Chilanga, Zambia.
authors.forename: Jassiel
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authors.affiliation: Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute, Arusha, Tanzania.
authors.forename: Maurus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Msuha
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.|Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.
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authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: O'Neill
authors.affiliation: Working Dogs for Conservation, Bozeman, MT 59771.
authors.forename: Megan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Parker
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Gianetta
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Purchase
authors.affiliation: Direction de la Faune, de la Chasse et des Aires Protégées, Niamey, Niger.
authors.forename: Samaila
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sahailou
authors.affiliation: Nigeria National Park Service, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria.
authors.forename: Yohanna
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Saidu
authors.affiliation: Direction de la Faune, de la Chasse et des Aires Protégées, Niamey, Niger.
authors.forename: Abdoulkarim
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Samna
authors.affiliation: Cheetah Conservation Fund, Otjiwarongo, Namibia.
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Schmidt-Küntzel
authors.affiliation: Consultant, Gaborone, Botswana.
authors.forename: Eda
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Selebatso
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Applied Ecology, University of Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin.
authors.forename: Etotépé A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Sogbohossou
authors.affiliation: Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, Cairo, Egypt.
authors.forename: Alaaeldin
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-3753-7015
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Soultan
authors.affiliation: Carnivore Research Malawi, Conservation Research Africa, Lilongwe, Malawi.
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authors.initials: E
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authors.affiliation: Cheetah Conservation Project Zimbabwe, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe.
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authors.initials: E
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authors.affiliation: Naankuse Foundation, Windhoek, Namibia.
authors.forename: Rudie
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authors.lastname: van Vuuren
authors.affiliation: Action for Cheetahs in Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya.
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mesh_terms: D002612:Acinonyx; D000349:Africa; D000818:Animals; D001208:Asia; D044822:Biodiversity; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000639:trends; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: landscape conservation; megafauna; population viability analysis; protected areas; threat assessment