title: A simple and practical score model for predicting the mortality of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome patients.
abstract: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging disease with a high fatality rate. The risk factors for death are not clearly identified, and there is no clinical score model to predict the prognosis. We retrospectively collected the clinical information of clinical symptoms and laboratory parameters of SFTS patients on admission. After analyzing the clinical characteristics of 179 SFTS patients, we found that an elevated level of neurologic symptoms, respiratory symptoms, viral load, and a lower level of monocyte percentage were the critical risk factors for mortality. We used the 4 variables to assemble a score formula named the SFTS index [SFTSI = 5 × Neurologic symptoms-level + 4 × Respiratory symptoms-level + 3 × LG10 Viral load - 2 × LN Monocyte% - 7]. The AURC of this model was 0.964, which was higher than the AURC 0.913 of the viral load especially among the patients with higher viral loads (0.936 vs 0.821). We identified that the neurologic symptoms, respiratory symptoms, viral load, and monocyte percentage were the critical risk factors for SFTS mortality. The clinical score model of SFTSI provides a practical method for clinicians to stratify patients with SFTS and to adopt prompt effective treatment strategies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, Institute of Infection and Immunology, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
authors.forename: Shue
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Xiong
authors.forename: Wenjing
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Mingyue
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xiong
authors.forename: Mengmeng
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Hua
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Dongliang
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Cheng
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Peng
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zheng
mesh_terms: D002044:Bunyaviridae Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016856:Phlebovirus; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013577:Syndrome