title: MODIS Imagery Improves Pest Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Wheat Stem Sawfly (Cephus cinctus, Hymenoptera: Cephidae) in Colorado, USA.
abstract: Wheat stem sawfly (Cephus cinctus Norton, Hymenoptera: Cephidae) has long been a significant insect pest of spring, and more recently, winter wheat in the northern Great Plains. Wheat stem sawfly was first observed infesting winter wheat in Colorado in 2010 and, subsequently, has spread rapidly throughout wheat production regions of the state. Here, we used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to generate habitat suitability maps in order to predict the risk of crop damage as this species spreads throughout the winter wheat-growing regions of Colorado. We identified environmental variables that influence the current distribution of wheat stem sawfly in the state and evaluated whether remotely sensed variables improved model performance. We used presence localities of C. cinctus and climatic, topographic, soils, and normalized difference vegetation index and enhanced vegetation index data derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery as environmental variables. All models had high performance in that they were successful in predicting suitable habitat for C. cinctus in its current distribution in eastern Colorado. The enhanced vegetation index for the month of April improved model performance and was identified as a top contributor to MaxEnt model. Soil clay percent at 0-5 cm, temperature seasonality, and precipitation seasonality were also associated with C. cinctus distribution in Colorado. The improved model performance resulting from integrating vegetation indices in our study demonstrates the ability of remote sensing technologies to enhance species distribution modeling. These risk maps generated can assist managers in planning control measures for current infestations and assess the future risk of C. cinctus establishment in currently uninfested regions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, 1001 West Drive, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (jtlestin@rams.colostate.edu; mccook3@rams.colostate.edu) jtlestin@rams.colostate.edu.
authors.forename: Jordan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lestina
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, 1001 West Drive, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (jtlestin@rams.colostate.edu; mccook3@rams.colostate.edu).
authors.forename: Maxwell
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cook
authors.affiliation: Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, 1231 East Drive, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (sunil.kumar@colostate.edu; morisettej@usgs.gov).
authors.forename: Sunil
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kumar
authors.affiliation: Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, 1231 East Drive, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (sunil.kumar@colostate.edu; morisettej@usgs.gov).|U.S. Geological Survey, North Central Climate Science Center, 2150 Centre Dr., Fort Collins, CO 80526.
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Morisette
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioagricultural Sciences and Pest Management, Colorado State University, 307 University Ave., Fort Collins, CO 80523 (Paul.Ode@colostate.edu; Frank.Peairs@colostate.edu).
authors.forename: Paul J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Ode
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioagricultural Sciences and Pest Management, Colorado State University, 307 University Ave., Fort Collins, CO 80523 (Paul.Ode@colostate.edu; Frank.Peairs@colostate.edu).
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Peairs
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D003120:Colorado; D017753:Ecosystem; D020387:Food Chain; D060434:Herbivory; D006927:Hymenoptera / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D058998:Remote Sensing Technology; D014908:Triticum / Q000254:growth & development
keywords: Cephus cinctus; MaxEnt; enhanced vegetation index; presence-only modeling; wheat stem sawfly