title: Large benefits to marine fisheries of meeting the 1.5°C global warming target.
abstract: Translating the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial level into impact-related targets facilitates communication of the benefits of mitigating climate change to policy-makers and stakeholders. Developing ecologically relevant impact-related targets for marine ecosystem services, such as fisheries, is an important step. Here, we use maximum catch potential and species turnover as climate-risk indicators for fisheries. We project that potential catches will decrease by more than 3 million metric tons per degree Celsius of warming. Species turnover is more than halved when warming is lowered from 3.5° to 1.5°C above the preindustrial level. Regionally, changes in maximum catch potential and species turnover vary across ecosystems, with the biggest risk reduction in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions when the Paris Agreement target is achieved.
authors.affiliation: Nippon Foundation Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada. w.cheung@oceans.ubc.ca.
authors.forename: William W L
authors.initials: WW
authors.lastname: Cheung
authors.affiliation: Nippon Foundation Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
authors.forename: Gabriel
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Reygondeau
authors.affiliation: Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Thomas L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Frölicher
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D018534:Earth, Planet; D005398:Fisheries; D005399:Fishes; D057232:Global Warming; D006358:Hot Temperature; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas