title: Ecological networks are more sensitive to plant than to animal extinction under climate change.
abstract: Impacts of climate change on individual species are increasingly well documented, but we lack understanding of how these effects propagate through ecological communities. Here we combine species distribution models with ecological network analyses to test potential impacts of climate change on >700 plant and animal species in pollination and seed-dispersal networks from central Europe. We discover that animal species that interact with a low diversity of plant species have narrow climatic niches and are most vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, biotic specialization of plants is not related to climatic niche breadth and vulnerability. A simulation model incorporating different scenarios of species coextinction and capacities for partner switches shows that projected plant extinctions under climate change are more likely to trigger animal coextinctions than vice versa. This result demonstrates that impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be amplified via extinction cascades from plants to animals in ecological networks.
authors.affiliation: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9426-045X
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Schleuning
authors.affiliation: Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada N1G2W1.|Biometry and Environmental Systems Analysis, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacherstr. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Jochen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fründ
authors.affiliation: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 4, 06120 Halle, Germany.
authors.forename: Oliver
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Schweiger
authors.affiliation: Institute for Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany.|German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Erik
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Welk
authors.affiliation: Conservation Ecology, Faculty of Biology, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Karl-von-Frisch-Str. 8, 35032 Marburg, Germany.|Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Mickiewicza 33, 31-120 Kraków, Poland.
authors.forename: Jörg
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Albrecht
authors.affiliation: Institute for Sustainability Sciences, Agroscope, Reckenholzstr. 191, CH-8046 Zürich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Matthias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Albrecht
authors.affiliation: Vegetation and Restoration Ecology, Department of Biology, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Schnittspahnstr. 10, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany.
authors.forename: Marion
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Beil
authors.affiliation: Biometry and Environmental Systems Analysis, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacherstr. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Gita
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Benadi
authors.affiliation: Ecological Networks, Department of Biology, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Schnittspahnstr. 3, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany.
authors.forename: Nico
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Blüthgen
authors.affiliation: Institute for Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany.|German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Helge
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Bruelheide
authors.affiliation: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.|Department of Biological Sciences, Johann Wolfgang Goethe University of Frankfurt, Max-von-Laue-Str. 9, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
authors.forename: Katrin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Böhning-Gaese
authors.affiliation: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.|School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand.
authors.forename: D Matthias
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Dehling
authors.affiliation: Biometry and Environmental Systems Analysis, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacherstr. 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Carsten F
authors.initials: CF
authors.lastname: Dormann
authors.affiliation: Ecology Section, Department of Biology and Chemistry, University of Osnabrück, Barbarastr. 13, 49076 Osnabrück, Germany.
authors.forename: Nina
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Exeler
authors.affiliation: Conservation Ecology, Faculty of Biology, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Karl-von-Frisch-Str. 8, 35032 Marburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Nina
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Farwig
authors.affiliation: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 4, 06120 Halle, Germany.
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Harpke
authors.affiliation: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.|Department of Physical Geography, Geosciences, Johann Wolfgang Goethe University of Frankfurt, Altenhöferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hickler
authors.affiliation: Ecology Section, Department of Biology and Chemistry, University of Osnabrück, Barbarastr. 13, 49076 Osnabrück, Germany.
authors.forename: Anselm
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kratochwil
authors.affiliation: Zoological Museum, University of Kiel, Hegewischstr. 3, 24105 Kiel, Germany.|Department of Life Sciences, The Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kuhlmann
authors.affiliation: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 4, 06120 Halle, Germany.|Institute for Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany.|German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Ingolf
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kühn
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Zoology, Biosciences Institute, University of Mons, Place du Parc 20, B-7000 Mons, Belgium.
authors.forename: Denis
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Michez
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 2, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia.
authors.forename: Sonja
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mudri-Stojnić
authors.affiliation: Geography Planning and Environmental Management, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4067, Australia.
authors.forename: Michaela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Plein
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Zoology, Biosciences Institute, University of Mons, Place du Parc 20, B-7000 Mons, Belgium.
authors.forename: Pierre
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Rasmont
authors.affiliation: Vegetation and Restoration Ecology, Department of Biology, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Schnittspahnstr. 10, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany.
authors.forename: Angelika
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Schwabe
authors.affiliation: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 4, 06120 Halle, Germany.|German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Josef
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8624-4983
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Settele
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 2, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia.
authors.forename: Ante
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Vujić
authors.affiliation: Ecological Networks, Department of Biology, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Schnittspahnstr. 3, 64287 Darmstadt, Germany.
authors.forename: Christiane N
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-4013-4663
authors.initials: CN
authors.lastname: Weiner
authors.affiliation: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 4, 06120 Halle, Germany.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wiemers
authors.affiliation: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Hof
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D005060:Europe; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010944:Plants / Q000145:classification / Q000378:metabolism*; D054817:Pollination; D011157:Population Dynamics; D058614:Seed Dispersal; D013045:Species Specificity