title: Estimation of daily PM10concentrations in Italy (2006-2012) using finely resolved satellite data, land use variables and meteorology.
abstract: Health effects of air pollution, especially particulate matter (PM), have been widely investigated. However, most of the studies rely on few monitors located in urban areas for short-term assessments, or land use/dispersion modelling for long-term evaluations, again mostly in cities. Recently, the availability of finely resolved satellite data provides an opportunity to estimate daily concentrations of air pollutants over wide spatio-temporal domains. Italy lacks a robust and validated high resolution spatio-temporally resolved model of particulate matter. The complex topography and the air mixture from both natural and anthropogenic sources are great challenges difficult to be addressed. We combined finely resolved data on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm, ground-level PM10measurements, land-use variables and meteorological parameters into a four-stage mixed model framework to derive estimates of daily PM10concentrations at 1-km2 grid over Italy, for the years 2006-2012. We checked performance of our models by applying 10-fold cross-validation (CV) for each year. Our models displayed good fitting, with mean CV-R2=0.65 and little bias (average slope of predicted VS observed PM10=0.99). Out-of-sample predictions were more accurate in Northern Italy (Po valley) and large conurbations (e.g. Rome), for background monitoring stations, and in the winter season. Resulting concentration maps showed highest average PM10levels in specific areas (Po river valley, main industrial and metropolitan areas) with decreasing trends over time. Our daily predictions of PM10concentrations across the whole Italy will allow, for the first time, estimation of long-term and short-term effects of air pollution nationwide, even in areas lacking monitoring data.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service/ASL Roma 1, Via C. Colombo 112, 00147 Rome, Italy; Karolinska Institutet, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Stockholm, Sweden. Electronic address: m.stafoggia@deplazio.it.
authors.forename: Massimo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stafoggia
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Joel
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Schwartz
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service/ASL Roma 1, Via C. Colombo 112, 00147 Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Chiara
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Badaloni
authors.affiliation: Karolinska Institutet, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm County Council, Centre for Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Bellander
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service/ASL Roma 1, Via C. Colombo 112, 00147 Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Ester
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Alessandrini
authors.affiliation: Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Giorgio
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Cattani
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service/ASL Roma 1, Via C. Colombo 112, 00147 Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Francesca
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: De' Donato
authors.affiliation: Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Alessandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gaeta
authors.affiliation: Italian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Gianluca
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Leone
authors.affiliation: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Alexei
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lyapustin
authors.affiliation: Civil and Environmental Engineering, Technion, Haifa, Israel; Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel.
authors.forename: Meytar
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sorek-Hamer
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Kees
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: de Hoogh
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Cambridge, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Qian
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Di
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service/ASL Roma 1, Via C. Colombo 112, 00147 Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Forastiere
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Environmental Development, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer Sheva, Israel.
authors.forename: Itai
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kloog
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis*; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis*; D012424:Rural Population; D012621:Seasons; D018531:Spacecraft; D014505:Urban Population
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter
keywords: Aerosol Optical Depth; Air pollution; Epidemiology; Exposure assessment; Particulate matter; Satellite