title: Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We used 2003-2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46-0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. Low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments, vector populations and climate, rather than viral flow drives these observations.
authors.affiliation: Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.|Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Cuong
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Hoang Quoc
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.|Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institute Pasteur, Paris, France.|CNRS, URA3012, Paris, France.|Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Salje
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Henrik
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
authors.forename: Rodriguez-Barraquer
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Isabel
authors.affiliation: International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea.|Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand.
authors.forename: Yoon
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: In-Kyu
authors.affiliation: Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Nguyen Van Vinh
authors.initials: NV
authors.lastname: Chau
authors.affiliation: Children's Hospital No. 1, District 10, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Nguyen Thanh
authors.initials: NT
authors.lastname: Hung
authors.affiliation: Children's Hospital No. 2, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Ha Manh
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Tuan
authors.affiliation: Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Phan Trong
authors.initials: PT
authors.lastname: Lan
authors.affiliation: Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Bridget
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Willis
authors.affiliation: Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand.
authors.forename: Ananda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Nisalak
authors.affiliation: Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok, Thailand.
authors.forename: Siripen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kalayanarooj
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.|Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
authors.forename: Derek A T
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Cummings
authors.affiliation: Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.|Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Cameron P
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Simmons
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000818:Animals; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002980:Climate; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003716:Dengue Virus / Q000145:classification*; D005260:Female; D014644:Genetic Variation; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D065288:Serogroup; D013785:Thailand / Q000453:epidemiology; D014744:Vietnam / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult