title: Spatio-temporal and neighborhood characteristics of two dengue outbreaks in two arid cities of Mexico.
abstract: Little is currently known about the spatial-temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics in arid areas. This study assesses dengue outbreaks that occurred in two arid cities of Mexico, Hermosillo and Navojoa, located in northern state of Sonora. Laboratory confirmed dengue cases from Hermosillo (N=2730) and Navojoa (N=493) were geocoded by residence and assigned neighborhood-level characteristics from the 2010 Mexican census. Kernel density and Space-time cluster analysis was performed to detect high density areas and space-time clusters of dengue. Ordinary Least Square regression was used to assess the changing socioeconomic characteristics of cases over the course of the outbreaks. Both cities exhibited contiguous patterns of space-time clustering. Initial areas of dissemination were characterized in both cities by high population density, high percentage of occupied houses, and lack of healthcare. Future research and control efforts in these regions should consider these space-time and socioeconomic patterns.
authors.affiliation: Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA. Electronic address: preyes@colson.edu.mx.
authors.forename: Pablo A
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Reyes-Castro
authors.affiliation: Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
authors.forename: Robin B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Harris
authors.affiliation: Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
authors.forename: Heidi E
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
authors.forename: Gary L
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Christopherson
authors.affiliation: Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA.
authors.forename: Kacey C
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Ernst
mesh_terms: D002947:Cities; D002980:Climate; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D011156:Population Density; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis
keywords: Dengue outbreak; Socioeconomic factors; Space-time clustering