title: Managing for No Net Loss of Ecological Services: An Approach for Quantifying Loss of Coastal Wetlands due to Sea Level Rise.
abstract: Sea level rise has the potential to substantially alter the extent and nature of coastal wetlands and the critical ecological services they provide. In making choices about how to respond to rising sea level, planners are challenged with weighing easily quantified risks (e.g., loss of property value due to inundation) against those that are more difficult to quantify (e.g., loss of primary production or carbon sequestration services provided by wetlands due to inundation). Our goal was to develop a cost-effective, appropriately-scaled, model-based approach that allows planners to predict, under various sea level rise and response scenarios, the economic cost of wetland loss-with the estimates proxied by the costs of future restoration required to maintain the existing level of wetland habitat services. Our approach applies the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model to predict changes in wetland habitats over the next century, and then applies Habitat Equivalency Analysis to predict the cost of restoration projects required to maintain ecological services at their present, pre-sea level rise level. We demonstrate the application of this approach in the Delaware Bay estuary and in the Indian River Lagoon (Florida), and discuss how this approach can support future coastal decision-making.
authors.affiliation: Industrial Economics, Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02140, USA. jkassakian@indecon.com.
authors.forename: Jennifer
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5627-1676
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kassakian
authors.affiliation: Industrial Economics, Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02140, USA.
authors.forename: Ann
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.affiliation: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Division, Washington, DC, USA.
authors.forename: Jeremy
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Martinich
authors.affiliation: Industrial Economics, Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02140, USA.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Hudgens
mesh_terms: D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D003691:Delaware; D063366:Estuaries; D005431:Florida; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D045483:Rivers; D012623:Seawater; D053833:Wetlands
keywords: Adaptation; Ecological services; Habitat change modeling; Habitat valuation; Sea level rise; Wetlands