title: The costs of diabetes among Australians aged 45-64 years from 2015 to 2030: projections of lost productive life years (PLYs), lost personal income, lost taxation revenue, extra welfare payments and lost gross domestic product from Health&WealthMOD2030.
abstract: To project the number of people aged 45-64 years with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to diabetes and related costs (lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue); and lost gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to diabetes in Australia from 2015 to 2030.
  
  
  
  A simulation study of how the number of people aged 45-64 years with diabetes increases over time (based on population growth and disease trend data) and the economic losses incurred by individuals and the government. Cross-sectional outputs of a microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030) which used the Australian Bureau of Statistics' Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003 and 2009 as a base population and integrated outputs from two microsimulation models (Static Incomes Model and Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model), Treasury's population and labour force projections, and chronic disease trends data.
  
  
  
  Australian population aged 45-64 years in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.
  
  
  
  Lost PLYs, lost income, extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue, lost GDP.
  
  
  
  18 100 people are out of the labour force due to diabetes in 2015, increasing to 21 400 in 2030 (18% increase). National costs consisted of a loss of $A467 million in annual income in 2015, increasing to $A807 million in 2030 (73% increase). For the government, extra annual welfare payments increased from $A311 million in 2015 to $A350 million in 2030 (13% increase); and lost annual taxation revenue increased from $A102 million in 2015 to $A166 million in 2030 (63% increase). A loss of $A2.1 billion in GDP was projected for 2015, increasing to $A2.9 billion in 2030 attributable to diabetes through its impact on PLYs.
  
  
  
  Individuals incur significant costs of diabetes through lost PLYs and lost income in addition to disease burden through human suffering and healthcare costs. The government incurs extra welfare payments, lost taxation revenue and lost GDP, along with direct healthcare costs.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Pharmacy, Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.|Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital Flemington Road, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.|Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Deborah
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Schofield
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Pharmacy, Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Rupendra N
authors.initials: RN
authors.lastname: Shrestha
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Pharmacy, Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Michelle M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Cunich
authors.affiliation: University Centre for Rural Health, School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Lismore, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Megan E
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5766-0235
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Passey
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Lennert
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Veerman
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Tanton
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
authors.forename: Simon J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Kelly
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D017281:Cost of Illness; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006233:Persons with Disabilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004526:Efficiency; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D012943:Social Security / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012946:Social Welfare / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D013660:Taxes / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY; HEALTH ECONOMICS; PUBLIC HEALTH