title: Analysis of the impact path on factors of China's energy-related CO2emissions: a path analysis with latent variables.
abstract: Identifying the impact path on factors of CO2emissions is crucial for the government to take effective measures to reduce carbon emissions. The most existing research focuses on the total influence of factors on CO2emissions without differentiating between the direct and indirect influence. Moreover, scholars have addressed the relationships among energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2emissions rather than estimating all the causal relationships simultaneously. To fill this research gaps and explore overall driving factors' influence mechanism on CO2emissions, this paper utilizes a path analysis model with latent variables (PA-LV) to estimate the direct and indirect effect of factors on China's energy-related carbon emissions and to investigate the causal relationships among variables. Three key findings emanate from the analysis: (1) The change in the economic growth pattern inhibits the growth rate of CO2emissions by reducing the energy intensity; (2) adjustment of industrial structure contributes to energy conservation and CO2emission reduction by raising the proportion of the tertiary industry; and (3) the growth of CO2emissions impacts energy consumption and energy intensity negatively, which results in a negative impact indirectly on itself. To further control CO2emissions, the Chinese government should (1) adjust the industrial structure and actively develop its tertiary industry to improve energy efficiency and develop low-carbon economy, (2) optimize population shifts to avoid excessive population growth and reduce energy consumption, and (3) promote urbanization steadily to avoid high energy consumption and low energy efficiency.
authors.affiliation: School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Room 505 of Administrative Building, 29# Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, People's Republic of China.|Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing, 100083, China.
authors.forename: Wenhui
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: School of Humanities and Economic Management, China University of Geosciences, Room 505 of Administrative Building, 29# Xueyuan Rd, Haidian District, Beijing, 100083, People's Republic of China. leiyalin@cugb.edu.cn.|Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing, 100083, China. leiyalin@cugb.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Yalin
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2996-196X
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Lei
mesh_terms: D002244:Carbon; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D002681:China; D057217:Economic Development; D014507:Urbanization
chemical_list: D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D002244:Carbon
keywords: Causality relationships; Direct and indirect influence; Energy-related carbon emissions; Influencing mechanism; Path analysis with latent variables model; Policy implications