title: Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.
abstract: Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects.
authors.affiliation: Université de la Guyane, UMR EcoFoG (AgroParistech, CNRS, Cirad, Inra, Université des Antilles, Université de la Guyane), Campus agronomique de Kourou, 97310, Kourou, French Guiana, France.
authors.forename: Camille
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-4366-2421
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Dezécache
authors.affiliation: CNRS, UMR LAMETA (CNRS, Inra, SupAgro, Université de Montpellier), Campus Inra-SupAgro, Bat.26, 2 Place Viala, 34060, Montpellier Cedex 2, France.
authors.forename: Jean-Michel
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Salles
authors.affiliation: Cirad, UPR Forêts et Sociétés, 34398, Montpellier, France.|JRC, Bio-Economy Unit (JRC.D.1), Joint Research Center of the European Commission, 21027, Ispra, Italy.
authors.forename: Ghislain
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-1685-4997
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Vieilledent
authors.affiliation: Cirad, UMR EcoFoG (AgroParistech, CNRS, Cirad, Inra, Université des Antilles, Université de la Guyane), Campus agronomique de Kourou, 97310, Kourou, French Guiana, France.
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-6950-7286
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Hérault
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D003132:Commerce; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D016468:Forestry / Q000191:economics; D065928:Forests; D012924:Social Conditions
keywords: Guiana shield; REDD+; demography; scenarios; spatially explicit modelling; subsidies