title: A multi-year estimate of methane fluxes in Alaska from CARVE atmospheric observations.
abstract: Methane (CH4) fluxes from Alaska and other arctic regions may be sensitive to thawing permafrost and future climate change, but estimates of both current and future fluxes from the region are uncertain. This study estimates CH4fluxes across Alaska for 2012-2014 using aircraft observations from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) and a geostatistical inverse model (GIM). We find that a simple flux model based on a daily soil temperature map and a static map of wetland extent reproduces the atmospheric CH4observations at the state-wide, multi-year scale more effectively than global-scale, state-of-the-art process-based models. This result points to a simple and effective way of representing CH4flux patterns across Alaska. It further suggests that contemporary process-based models can improve their representation of key processes that control fluxes at regional scales, and that more complex processes included in these models cannot be evaluated given the information content of available atmospheric CH4observations. In addition, we find that CH4emissions from the North Slope of Alaska account for 24% of the total statewide flux of 1.74 ± 0.44 Tg CH4 (for May-Oct.). Contemporary global-scale process models only attribute an average of 3% of the total flux to this region. This mismatch occurs for two reasons: process models likely underestimate wetland area in regions without visible surface water, and these models prematurely shut down CH4fluxes at soil temperatures near 0°C. As a consequence, wetlands covered by vegetation and wetlands with persistently cold soils could be larger contributors to natural CH4fluxes than in process estimates. Lastly, we find that the seasonality of CH4fluxes varied during 2012-2014, but that total emissions did not differ significantly among years, despite substantial differences in soil temperature and precipitation; year-to-year variability in these environmental conditions did not affect obvious changes in total CH4fluxes from the state.
authors.affiliation: Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California, USA.
authors.forename: Scot M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Miller
authors.affiliation: Science Division, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, USA.
authors.forename: Charles E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Miller
authors.affiliation: School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Roisin
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Commane
authors.affiliation: Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
authors.forename: Rachel Y-W
authors.initials: RY
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: Science Division, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, USA.
authors.forename: Steven J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Dinardo
authors.affiliation: Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA.
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Henderson
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland, USA.
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Karion
authors.affiliation: Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
authors.forename: Jakob
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lindaas
authors.affiliation: Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, Canada.
authors.forename: Joe R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Melton
authors.affiliation: Global Monitoring Division, NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA.
authors.forename: John B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Miller
authors.affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
authors.forename: Colm
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sweeney
authors.affiliation: School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.
authors.forename: Steven C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Wofsy
authors.affiliation: Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California, USA.
authors.forename: Anna M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Michalak