title: Usefulness of HATCH score in the prediction of new-onset atrial fibrillation for Asians.
abstract: The HATCH score (hypertension <1 point>, age >75 years <1 point>, stroke or transient ischemic attack <2 points>, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease <1 point>, and heart failure <2 points>) was reported to be useful for predicting the progression of atrial fibrillation (AF) from paroxysmal to persistent or permanent AF for patients who participated in the Euro Heart Survey. The goal of the current study was to investigate whether the HATCH score was a useful scheme in predicting new-onset AF. Furthermore, we aimed to use the HATCH scoring system to estimate the individual risk in developing AF for patients with different comorbidities. We used the "Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database." From January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2001, a total of 670,804 patients older than 20 years old and who had no history of cardiac arrhythmias were enrolled. According to the calculation rule of the HATCH score, 599,780 (score 0), 46,661 (score 1), 12,892 (score 2), 7456 (score 3), 2944 (score 4), 802 (score 5), 202 (score 6), and 67 (score 7) patients were studied and followed for the new onset of AF. During a follow-up of 9.0 ± 2.2 years, there were 9174 (1.4%) patients experiencing new-onset AF. The incidence of AF was 1.5 per 1000 patient-years. The incidence increased from 0.8 per 1000 patient-years for patients with a HATCH score of 0 to 57.3 per 1000 patient-years for those with a HATCH score of 7. After an adjustment for the gender and comorbidities, the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of each increment of the HATCH score in predicting AF was 2.059 (2.027-2.093; P < 0.001). The HATCH score was useful in risk estimation and stratification of new-onset AF.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Hiroshima University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima, Japan. Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital Institute of Clinical Medicine, and Cardiovascular Research Center, National Yang-Ming University Division of Hematology and Oncology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital Institute of Public Health and School of Medicine, National Yang-Ming University Department of Family Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Kazuyoshi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Suenari
authors.forename: Tze-Fan
authors.initials: TF
authors.lastname: Chao
authors.forename: Chia-Jen
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Yasuki
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Kihara
authors.forename: Tzeng-Ji
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Shih-Ann
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D044466:Asian People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D015897:Comorbidity; D016208:Databases, Factual; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012107:Research Design; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology