title: Harmful algal bloom forecast system for SW Ireland. Part II: Are operational oceanographic models useful in a HAB warning system.
abstract: This study investigated the application of a three-dimensional physical hydrodynamic model in a harmful algal bloom forecast system for Bantry Bay, southwest Ireland. Modelled oceanographic conditions were studied and used to help understand observed changes in the chemical and biological patterns from the national biotoxins and phytoplankton monitoring program. The study focused on two toxic events in 2013. An upwelling event was predicted by the model prior to the appearance and population increase of potentially toxic diatoms, Pseudo-nitzschia, and associated domoic acid in shellfish. A downwelling episode was provided as a forecast in the model prior to the arrival of a Dinophysis bloom and detection of its associated biotoxins in Bay shellfish. The modelled forecast products developed included expected surface, mid-depth and bottom current pathways at the mouth of the Bay and on the adjacent shelf. The rate and direction of water volume flow at the mouth and mid-bay sections were produced by the model to examine predicted upwelling and downwelling pulses. The model also calculated the evolution of water properties (temperature, salinity and density) with depth along the Bay axis and on the adjacent continental shelf. Direct measurements of water properties at a fixed point, mid-bay, were comparable to model calculations. The operational model for southwest Ireland produces a reliable 3-day physical hydrodynamic forecast of the dominant regional physical processes that result in water exchange events between Bantry Bay and its adjacent shelf. While simulated physical hydrodynamics were provided as a 3-day forecast, the upwelling and downwelling signals from the model, closely linked to toxic HAB episodes, were evident up to 10 days prior to the contamination of shellfish in the Bay.
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland. Electronic address: caroline.cusack@marine.ie.
authors.forename: Caroline
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cusack
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland. Electronic address: tomasz.dabrowski@marine.ie.
authors.forename: Tomasz
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Dabrowski
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland. Electronic address: kieran.lyons@marine.ie.
authors.forename: Kieran
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lyons
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland. Electronic address: alan.berry@marine.ie.
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Berry
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland. Electronic address: guy.westbrook@marine.ie.
authors.forename: Guy
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Westbrook
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland. Electronic address: rafael.salas@marine.ie.
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Salas
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland. Electronic address: conor.duffy@marine.ie.
authors.forename: Conor
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Duffy
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland; EuroGOOS AISBL, 231 Avenue Louise, Ixelles 1050, Brussels, Belgium. Electronic address: glenn.nolan@eurogoos.eu.
authors.forename: Glenn
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Nolan
authors.affiliation: Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co. Galway, Ireland. Electronic address: joe.silke@marine.ie.
authors.forename: Joe
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Silke
mesh_terms: D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D057097:Harmful Algal Bloom; D007494:Ireland; D008954:Models, Biological; D011634:Public Health / Q000379:methods*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012623:Seawater; D014872:Water Movements
keywords: Dinophysis; HAB; Ireland; Modelled products; Nowcast/forecast; Pseudo-nitzschia