title: Understanding transmissibility patterns of Chagas disease through complex vector-host networks.
abstract: Chagas disease is one of the most important vector-borne zoonotic diseases in Latin America. Control strategies could be improved if transmissibility patterns of its aetiologic agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, were better understood. To understand transmissibility patterns of Chagas disease in Mexico, we inferred potential vectors and hosts of T. cruzi from geographic distributions of nine species of Triatominae and 396 wild mammal species, respectively. The most probable vectors and hosts of T. cruzi were represented in a Complex Inference Network, from which we formulated a predictive model and several associated hypotheses about the ecological epidemiology of Chagas disease. We compiled a list of confirmed mammal hosts to test our hypotheses. Our tests allowed us to predict the most important potential hosts of T. cruzi and to validate the model showing that the confirmed hosts were those predicted to be the most important hosts. We were also able to predict differences in the transmissibility of T. cruzi among triatomine species from spatial data. We hope our findings help drive efforts for future experimental studies.
authors.affiliation: Museo de Zoología 'Alfonso L. Herrera',Departamento de Biología Evolutiva, Facultad de Ciencias,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,04510 Mexico City,Mexico.
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Rengifo-Correa
authors.affiliation: C3 - Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,04510 Mexico City,Mexico.
authors.forename: Christopher R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Stephens
authors.affiliation: Museo de Zoología 'Alfonso L. Herrera',Departamento de Biología Evolutiva, Facultad de Ciencias,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,04510 Mexico City,Mexico.
authors.forename: Juan J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Morrone
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Diagnóstico y Referencia Epidemiológicos (INDRE),01480 Mexico City,Mexico.
authors.forename: Juan Luis
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Téllez-Rendón
authors.affiliation: C3 - Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México,04510 Mexico City,Mexico.
authors.forename: Constantino
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7347-714X
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: González-Salazar
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild; D014355:Chagas Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D054884:Host-Pathogen Interactions; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000469:parasitology*; D008322:Mammals / Q000145:classification / Q000469:parasitology*; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D014225:Triatominae / Q000469:parasitology*
keywords: 
                 Trypanosoma cruzi
              ; ecological epidemiology; potential hosts; spatial data mining