title: An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.
abstract: This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.
authors.affiliation: Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center (ITSC), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.|Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.
authors.forename: Bing
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center (ITSC), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.|National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety (WTSC), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.
authors.forename: Xinping
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: Intelligent Transport Systems Research Center (ITSC), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.|National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety (WTSC), Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China.
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.
authors.forename: C Guedes
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Soares
keywords: CREAM; evidential reasoning; human reliability analysis; maritime accident process; safety engineering