title: [Prediction of Severe Course in Infants with RSV Bronchiolitis under 6 Months. Spain].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The need for mechanical ventilation (MV) in acute bronchiolitis (AB) by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) varies depending on the series (6-18%). Our goal is to determine the admissions to PICU for MV in patients under 6 months with AB and define the risk factors for building a prediction model.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective study of patients younger than 6 months admitted by BA-VRS between the periods April 1, 2010 and March 31, 2015 was made. The primary variable was the admission to PICU for MV. Related addition, to find risk factors in a model of binary logistic regression clinical variables were collected. A ROC curve model was developed and optimal cutoff point was identified.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In 695 cases, the need of MV in the PICU (Y) was 56 (8.1%). Risk factors (Xi) included in the equation were: 1. male sex (OR 4.27) 2. postmenstrual age (OR: 0.76) 3. Weight income less than p3 (OR: 5.53) 4. intake lees than 50% (OR: 12.4) 5. Severity by scale (OR: 1.58) 6. apneas before admission (OR: 25.5) 7. bacterial superinfection (OR 5.03) and 8. gestational age more than 37 weeks OR (0.32). The area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity were 0.943, 0.84 and 0.93 respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The PICU admission for MV was 8.1 in every 100 healthy infants hospitalized for AB and year. The prediction model equation can help to predict patients at increased risk of severe evolution.
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Gestión Clínica de Pediatría. Hospital Materno-Infantil Regional Universitario de Málaga. Málaga. España.
authors.forename: José Miguel
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Ramos-Fernández
authors.affiliation: Infectología Pediátrica e Inmunodeficiencias. Unidad de Gestión Clínica de Pediatría. Hospital Materno-Infantil Regional Universitario de Málaga.|Grupo de Investigación IBIMA. Departamento de Pediatría y Farmacología. Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de Málaga. Málaga. España.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Moreno-Pérez
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Salud Pública y Psiquiatría. Facultad de Medicina. Universidad de Málaga. Málaga. España.
authors.forename: Mario
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gutiérrez-Bedmar
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Gestión Clínica de Pediatría. Grupo de Investigación IBIMA. Hospital Materno-Infantil Regional Universitario de Málaga. Málaga. España.
authors.forename: Alexandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hernández-Yuste
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Gestión Clínica de Pediatría. Grupo de Investigación IBIMA. Hospital Materno-Infantil Regional Universitario de Málaga. Málaga. España.
authors.forename: Ana María
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Cordón-Martínez
authors.affiliation: Grupo de Investigación IBIMA. Departamento de Pediatría y Farmacología. Facultad de Medicina de la Universidad de Málaga. Málaga. España.|Unidad de Gestión Clínica de Cuidados Críticos y Urgencias. Hospital Materno-Infantil Regional Universitario de Málaga.
authors.forename: Guillermo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Milano-Manso
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Gestión Clínica de Pediatría. Hospital Materno-Infantil Regional Universitario de Málaga. Málaga. España.
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Urda-Cardona
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D001988:Bronchiolitis / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy / Q000821:virology; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D015278:Intensive Care Units, Pediatric; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D012121:Respiration, Artificial; D018357:Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013030:Spain
keywords: Bronchiolitis, Viral; Incidence; Infant, Newborn; Intensive Care Units, Pediatric; Logistic regression model; Mechanical ventilation; Respiratory Syncytial Viruses; Spain