title: Adolescents display distinctive tolerance to ambiguity and to uncertainty during risky decision making.
abstract: Although actuarial data indicate that risk-taking behavior peaks in adolescence, laboratory evidence for this developmental spike remains scarce. One possible explanation for this incongruity is that in the real world adolescents often have only vague information about the potential consequences of their behavior and the likelihoods of those consequences, whereas in the lab these are often clearly stated. How do adolescents behave under such more realistic conditions of ambiguity and uncertainty? We asked 105 participants aged from 8 to 22 years to make three types of choices: (1) choices between options whose possible outcomes and probabilities were fully described (choices under risk); (2) choices between options whose possible outcomes were described but whose probability information was incomplete (choices under ambiguity), and (3) choices between unknown options whose possible outcomes and probabilities could be explored (choices under uncertainty). Relative to children and adults, two adolescent-specific markers emerged. First, adolescents were more accepting of ambiguity; second, they were also more accepting of uncertainty (as indicated by shorter pre-decisional search). Furthermore, this tolerance of the unknown was associated with motivational, but not cognitive, factors. These findings offer novel insights into the psychology of adolescent risk taking.
authors.affiliation: Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, D-14195 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Wouter
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: van den Bos
authors.affiliation: Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, D-14195 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Ralph
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hertwig
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002755:Choice Behavior; D003657:Decision Making; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012309:Risk-Taking; D035501:Uncertainty; D055815:Young Adult