title: Personalized life expectancy and treatment benefit index of antiretroviral therapy.
abstract: The progression of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) within host includes typical stages and the Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is shown to be effective in slowing down this progression. There are great challenges in describing the entire HIV disease progression and evaluating comprehensive effects of ART on life expectancy for HIV infected individuals on ART.
  
  
  
  We develop a novel summative treatment benefit index (TBI), based on an HIV viral dynamics model and linking the infection and viral production rates to the Weibull function. This index summarizes the integrated effect of ART on the life expectancy (LE) of a patient, and more importantly, can be reconstructed from the individual clinic data.
  
  
  
  The proposed model, faithfully mimicking the entire HIV disease progression, enables us to predict life expectancy and trace back the timing of infection. We fit the model to the longitudinal data in a cohort study in China to reconstruct the treatment benefit index, and we describe the dependence of individual life expectancy on key ART treatment specifics including the timing of ART initiation, timing of emergence of drug resistant virus variants and ART adherence.
  
  
  
  We show that combining model predictions with monitored CD4 counts and viral loads can provide critical information about the disease progression, to assist the design of ART regimen for maximizing the treatment benefits.
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, 710049, China.
authors.forename: Yanni
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, 710049, China. xiaodansun@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Xiaodan
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: College of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, West Chang'an Avenue, Xi'an, 710119, China.
authors.forename: Sanyi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, 710049, China.
authors.forename: Yicang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, 210029, China.
authors.forename: Zhihang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Peng
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Centre for Disease Modelling, York Institute for Health Research, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada.
authors.forename: Jianhong
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: National Center for AIDS/STD Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Beijing, 102206, China.
authors.forename: Ning
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000276:immunology / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D023241:Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends*; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count / Q000379:methods; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000276:immunology / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends*; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D057285:Precision Medicine / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends*; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents
keywords: Antiretroviral therapy; HIV; Life expectancy; Treatment benefit index; Viral dynamic model