title: Updating the U.S. Life Cycle GHG Petroleum Baseline to 2014 with Projections to 2040 Using Open-Source Engineering-Based Models.
abstract: The National Energy Technology Laboratory produced a well-to-wheels (WTW) life cycle greenhouse gas analysis of petroleum-based fuels consumed in the U.S. in 2005, known as the NETL 2005 Petroleum Baseline. This study uses a set of engineering-based, open-source models combined with publicly available data to calculate baseline results for 2014. An increase between the 2005 baseline and the 2014 results presented here (e.g., 92.4 vs 96.2 g CO2e/MJ gasoline, + 4.1%) are due to changes both in modeling platform and in the U.S. petroleum sector. An updated result for 2005 was calculated to minimize the effect of the change in modeling platform, and emissions for gasoline in 2014 were about 2% lower than in 2005 (98.1 vs 96.2 g CO2e/MJ gasoline). The same methods were utilized to forecast emissions from fuels out to 2040, indicating maximum changes from the 2014 gasoline result between +2.1% and -1.4%. The changing baseline values lead to potential compliance challenges with frameworks such as the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) Section 526, which states that Federal agencies should not purchase alternative fuels unless their life cycle GHG emissions are less than those of conventionally produced, petroleum-derived fuels.
authors.affiliation: National Energy Technology Laboratory , 626 Cochrans Mill Road, P.O. Box 10940, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15236, United States.
authors.forename: Gregory
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Cooney
authors.affiliation: National Energy Technology Laboratory , 626 Cochrans Mill Road, P.O. Box 10940, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15236, United States.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jamieson
authors.affiliation: National Energy Technology Laboratory , 626 Cochrans Mill Road, P.O. Box 10940, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15236, United States.
authors.forename: Joe
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Marriott
authors.affiliation: University of Calgary EEEL Building University of Calgary , 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta Canada T2N 1N4.
authors.forename: Joule
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bergerson
authors.affiliation: Stanford University , 066 Green Earth Sciences Building, 367 Panama St., Stanford, California 94305, United States.
authors.forename: Adam
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-2528-1473
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Brandt
authors.affiliation: National Energy Technology Laboratory , 626 Cochrans Mill Road, P.O. Box 10940, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15236, United States.
authors.forename: Timothy J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Skone
mesh_terms: D005544:Forecasting; D005742:Gasoline; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010578:Petroleum; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D005742:Gasoline; D010578:Petroleum