title: Estimates of Health Impacts and Radiative Forcing in Winter Haze in Eastern China through Constraints of Surface PM2.5Predictions.
abstract: The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system is extended to treat the MOSAIC aerosol model in WRF-Chem, and to be capable of assimilating surface PM2.5concentrations. The coupled GSI-WRF-Chem system is applied to reproduce aerosol levels over China during an extremely polluted winter month, January 2013. After assimilating surface PM2.5concentrations, the correlation coefficients between observations and model results averaged over the assimilated sites are improved from 0.67 to 0.94. At nonassimilated sites, improvements (higher correlation coefficients and lower mean bias errors (MBE) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE)) are also found in PM2.5, PM10, and AOD predictions. Using the constrained aerosol fields, we estimate that the PM2.5concentrations in January 2013 might have caused 7550 premature deaths in Jing-Jin-Ji areas, which are 2% higher than the estimates using unconstrained aerosol fields. We also estimate that the daytime monthly mean anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) to be -29.9W/m2at the surface, 27.0W/m2inside the atmosphere, and -2.9W/m2at the top of the atmosphere. Our estimates update the previously reported overestimations along Yangtze River region and underestimations in North China. This GSI-WRF-Chem system would also be potentially useful for air quality forecasting in China.
authors.affiliation: Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, University of Iowa , Iowa City, Iowa 52242, United States.|Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa , Iowa City, Iowa 52242, United States.
authors.forename: Meng
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8657-3541
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling (ACOM) Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) , Boulder, Colorado 80305, United States.
authors.forename: Pablo E
authors.initials: PE
authors.lastname: Saide
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jinyuan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xin
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yuesi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Zirui
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Houston , Houston, Texas 77004, United States.|Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University , Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yuxuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Zifa
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), Boulder, Colorado 80305, United States.
authors.forename: Mariusz
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pagowski
authors.affiliation: Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute , Reno, Nevada 89119, United States.
authors.forename: Sarath K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Guttikunda
authors.affiliation: Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, University of Iowa , Iowa City, Iowa 52242, United States.|Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, University of Iowa , Iowa City, Iowa 52242, United States.
authors.forename: Gregory R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Carmichael
mesh_terms: D000336:Aerosols; D000393:Air Pollutants; D002681:China; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D052638:Particulate Matter
chemical_list: D000336:Aerosols; D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter