title: Application of the analytic hierarchy approach to the risk assessment of Zika virus disease transmission in Guangdong Province, China.
abstract: An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention in 2015. The infection also affected Guangdong province, which is located in southern China. Multiple factors, including frequent communication with South America and Southeast Asia, suitable climate (sub-tropical) for the habitat of Aedes species, may increase the risk of ZIKV disease transmission in this region.
  
  
  
  An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was used to develop a semi-quantitative ZIKV risk assessment model. After selecting indicators, we invited experts in related professions to identify the index weight and based on that a hierarchical structure was generated. Then a series of pairwise comparisons were used to determine the relative importance of the criteria. Finally, the optimal model was established to estimate the spatial and seasonal transmission risk of ZIKV.
  
  
  
  A total of 15 factors that potentially influenced the risk of ZIKV transmission were identified. The factor that received the largest weight was epidemic of ZIKV in Guangdong province (combined weight [CW] =0.37), followed by the mosquito density (CW = 0.18) and the epidemic of DENV in Guangdong province (CW = 0.14). The distribution of 123 districts/counties' RIs of ZIKV in Guangdong through different seasons were presented, respectively.
  
  
  
  Higher risk was observed within Pearl River Delta including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Jiangmen, and the risk is greater in summer and autumn compared to spring and winter.
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Xing
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Tao
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Lifeng
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Tie
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Xiaolong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Du
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Hualiang
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Jianpeng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Jianfeng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Liping
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Guanghu
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Weilin
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China.
authors.forename: Lingchuan
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 511 Kehua Street, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, 510640, China.
authors.forename: Zheng
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Cao
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 511 Kehua Street, Tianhe District, Guangzhou, 510640, China. mawj@gdiph.org.cn.
authors.forename: Wenjun
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160 Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 511430, China. zyh@cdcp.org.cn.
authors.forename: Yonghui
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology; D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D002980:Climate; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012621:Seasons; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013020:South America; D000071244:Zika Virus; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*
keywords: China; Risk assessment; Transmission; Zika virus