title: A multidimensional approach to performance prediction in Olympic distance cross-country mountain bikers.
abstract: This study adopted a multidimensional approach to performance prediction within Olympic distance cross-country mountain biking (XCO-MTB). Twelve competitive XCO-MTB cyclists (VO2max 60.8 ± 6.7 ml · kg-1· min-1) completed an incremental cycling test, maximal hand grip strength test, cycling power profile (maximal efforts lasting 6-600 s), decision-making test and an individual XCO-MTB time-trial (34.25 km). A hierarchical approach using multiple linear regression analyses was used to develop predictive models of performance across 10 circuit subsections and the total time-trial. The strongest model to predict overall time-trial performance achieved prediction accuracy of 127.1 s across 6246.8 ± 452.0 s (adjusted R2= 0.92; P < 0.01). This model included VO2max relative to total cycling mass, maximal mean power across 5 and 30 s, peak left hand grip strength, and response time for correct decisions in the decision-making task. A range of factors contributed to the models for each individual subsection of the circuit with varying predictive strength (adjusted R2: 0.62-0.97; P < 0.05). The high prediction accuracy for the total time-trial supports that a multidimensional approach should be taken to develop XCO-MTB performance. Additionally, individual models for circuit subsections may help guide training practices relative to the specific trail characteristics of various XCO-MTB circuits.
authors.affiliation: a Applied Sports Science and Exercise Testing Laboratory, School of Environmental and Life Sciences, Faculty of Science and Information Technology , University of Newcastle , Ourimbah , Australia.
authors.forename: Andrew R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Novak
authors.affiliation: b Sport and Exercise Science, Faculty of Health , University of Technology Sydney , Moore Park , Australia.
authors.forename: Kyle J M
authors.initials: KJM
authors.lastname: Bennett
authors.affiliation: b Sport and Exercise Science, Faculty of Health , University of Technology Sydney , Moore Park , Australia.
authors.forename: Job
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fransen
authors.affiliation: c Department of Rehabilitation, Nutrition and Sport , La Trobe University , Bundoora , Australia.
authors.forename: Ben J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Dascombe
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000886:Anthropometry; D054874:Athletic Performance / Q000502:physiology*; D001642:Bicycling / Q000502:physiology*; D003657:Decision Making; D005080:Exercise Test / Q000379:methods*; D018737:Hand Strength; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D010101:Oxygen Consumption
keywords: Cycling; decision-making; physiology; power output