title: Which factors are most predictive for live birth after in vitro fertilization and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatments? Analysis of 100 prospectively recorded variables in 8,400 IVF/ICSI single-embryo transfers.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To construct a prediction model for live birth after in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatment and single-embryo transfer (SET) after 2 days of embryo culture.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective observational cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  University-affiliated private infertility center.
  
  
  METHODS
  SET in 8,451 IVF/ICSI treatments in 5,699 unselected consecutive couples during 1999-2014.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 100 basal patient characteristics and treatment data were analyzed for associations with live birth after IVF/ICSI (adjusted for repeated treatments) and subsequently combined for prediction model construction.
  
  
  METHODS
  Live birth rate (LBR) and performance of live birth prediction model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Embryo score, treatment history, ovarian sensitivity index (OSI; number of oocytes/total dose of FSH administered), female age, infertility cause, endometrial thickness, and female height were all independent predictors of live birth. A prediction model (training data set; n = 5,722) based on these variables showed moderate discrimination, but predicted LBR with high accuracy in subgroups of patients, with LBR estimates ranging from <10% to >40%. Outcomes were similar in an internal validation data set (n = 2,460).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Based on 100 variables prospectively recorded during a 15-year period, a model for live birth prediction after strict SET was constructed and showed excellent calibration in internal validation. For the first time, female height qualified as a predictor of live birth after IVF/ICSI.
authors.affiliation: Carl von Linné Clinic, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden. Electronic address: katarina.vaegter@linne.se.
authors.forename: Katarina Kebbon
authors.initials: KK
authors.lastname: Vaegter
authors.affiliation: Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Tatevik Ghukasyan
authors.initials: TG
authors.lastname: Lakic
authors.affiliation: Department of Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Matts
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Olovsson
authors.affiliation: Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Berglund
authors.affiliation: Carl von Linné Clinic, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Brodin
authors.affiliation: Carl von Linné Clinic, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; Center for Reproductive Biology in Uppsala, University of Agricultural Sciences and Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Holte
mesh_terms: D000046:Academic Medical Centers; D000328:Adult; D001827:Body Height; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D046149:Embryo Culture Techniques; D010064:Embryo Implantation; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D005307:Fertilization in Vitro / Q000009:adverse effects; D006801:Humans; D007246:Infertility / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy*; D050498:Live Birth; D018579:Patient Selection; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D018873:Pregnancy Rate; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D056826:Single Embryo Transfer / Q000009:adverse effects; D020554:Sperm Injections, Intracytoplasmic / Q000009:adverse effects; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: IVF; live birth rate; multiple pregnancy; prediction model; single-embryo transfer