title: A nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis in patients with early gastric cancer.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Lymph node status is crucial to determining treatment for early gastric cancer (EGC). We aim to establish a nomogram to predict the possibility of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in EGC patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  Medical records of 952 EGC patients with curative resection, from 2002 to 2014, were retrospectively retrieved. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to examine risk factors associated with LNM. A nomogram for predicting LNM was established and internally validated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Five variables significantly associated with LNM were included in our model, these are sex (Odd ratio [OR] = 1.961, 95% confidence index [CI], 1.334 to 2.883; P = 0.001), depth of tumor (OR = 2.875, 95% CI, 1.872 to 4.414; P = 0.000), tumor size (OR = 1.986, 95% CI, 1.265 to 3.118; P = 0.003), histology type (OR = 2.926, 95% CI, 1.854 to 4.617; P = 0.000) and lymphovascular invasion (OR = 4.967, 95% CI, 2.996 to 8.235; P = 0.000). The discrimination of the prediction model was 0.786.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with early gastric cancer was successfully established, which was superior to the absolute endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) indication in terms of the clinical performance.
authors.affiliation: Department of Abdominal Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Chun Guang
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Department of Abdominal Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Dong Bing
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Department of Abdominal Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Qian
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Abdominal Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Zhi Xiang
authors.initials: ZX
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Department of Abdominal Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Ping
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Department of Endoscopy, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Gui Qi
authors.initials: GQ
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Abdominal Surgical Oncology, National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jian Qiang
authors.initials: JQ
authors.lastname: Cai
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008198:Lymph Nodes / Q000473:pathology*; D008207:Lymphatic Metastasis; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D049451:Nomograms; D011379:Prognosis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012307:Risk Factors; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology*
keywords: decision analysis; endoscopic resection; gastric cancer; lymph node metastasis; nomogram