title: Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change 'winners' and 'losers'.
abstract: The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities-currently the most diverse on Earth-may become depauperate ('biotic attrition'). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely.
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada jedediah.brodie@mso.umt.edu.|Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.|Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
authors.forename: Jedediah F
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8298-9021
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Brodie
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.|Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Strimas-Mackey
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, Faculty of Resource Science and Technology, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, 94300 Kota Samarahan, Sarawak, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Jayasilan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mohd-Azlan
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.|Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
authors.forename: Alys
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Granados
authors.affiliation: Institute for Tropical Biology and Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88999 Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Henry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Bernard
authors.affiliation: Field Conservation Program, SPECIES, Ventura, CA, USA.|Conservation Science Program, Tiger Creek Wildlife Refuge, Tyler, TX, USA.
authors.forename: Anthony J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Giordano
authors.affiliation: Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.|Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
authors.forename: Olga E
authors.initials: OE
authors.lastname: Helmy
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D049628:Body Size; D001893:Borneo; D057231:Climate Change; D008322:Mammals; D065947:Rainforest; D013696:Temperature
keywords: activity pattern; climate change; species distribution; temporal niche; thermal neutral zone; traits