title: Allocation and simulation study of carbon emission quotas among China's provinces in 2020.
abstract: China will form its carbon market in 2017 to focus on the allocation of regional carbon emission quota in order to cope with global warming. The rationality of the regional allocation has become an important consideration for the government in ensuring stable growth in different regions that are experiencing disparity in resource endowment and economic status. Based on constructing the quota allocation indicator system for carbon emission, the emission quota for each province in different scenarios and schemes in 2020 is simulated by the multifactor hybrid weighted Shannon entropy allocation model. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) The top 5 secondary-level indicators that influence provincial quota allocation in weight are as follows: per capita energy consumption, openness, per capita carbon emission, per capita disposable income, and energy intensity. (2) The ratio of carbon emission in 2020 is different from that in 2013 in many scenarios, and the variation is scenario 2 > scenario 1 > scenario 3, with Hubei and Guangdong the provinces with the largest increase and decrease ratios, respectively. (3) In the same scenario, the quota allocation varies in different reduction criteria emphases; if the government emphasizes reduction efficiency, scheme 1 will show obvious adjustment, that is, Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou, and Yunnan will have the largest decrease. The amounts are 4.28, 8.31, 4.04, and 5.97 million tons, respectively.
authors.affiliation: School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China.
authors.forename: Xing
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Public Health School, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, 22116, China.
authors.forename: Xueling
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Guan
authors.affiliation: School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China.
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: School of Engineering, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
authors.forename: Yao
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China. mhzhou63@163.com.
authors.forename: Meihua
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zhou
mesh_terms: D002244:Carbon / Q000032:analysis* / Q000737:chemistry; D002681:China; D057217:Economic Development / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D058735:Environmental Policy / Q000191:economics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors
chemical_list: D002244:Carbon
keywords: Carbon emission allocation; Indicator system; Provinces; Scenario classification