title: Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community.
abstract: Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK frances.clare@ioz.ac.uk.|Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London W2 1PG, UK.
authors.forename: Frances C
authors.initials: FC
authors.lastname: Clare
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London W2 1PG, UK.
authors.forename: Julia B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Halder
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, SL5 9PU, UK.
authors.forename: Olivia
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Daniel
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
authors.forename: Jon
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bielby
authors.affiliation: Computational and Systems Biology, Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK.
authors.forename: Mikhail A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Semenov
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London W2 1PG, UK.
authors.forename: Thibaut
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Jombart
authors.affiliation: Université de Toulouse; UPS, INPT; EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 118 route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse, France.|Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.|Department of System Ecotoxicology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Adeline
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Loyau
authors.affiliation: Université de Toulouse; UPS, INPT; EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 118 route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse, France.|Department of Conservation Biology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: Dirk S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Schmeller
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
authors.forename: Andrew A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Cunningham
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
authors.forename: Marcus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rowcliffe
authors.affiliation: Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK.
authors.forename: Trenton W J
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-0336-9706
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Garner
authors.affiliation: Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2 28006, Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Jaime
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bosch
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London W2 1PG, UK matthew.fisher@imperial.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Matthew C
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-1862-6402
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Fisher
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001001:Anura; D008411:Chytridiomycota / Q000502:physiology*; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000382:microbiology / Q000662:veterinary*; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D060106:Lakes / Q000382:microbiology; D007814:Larva / Q000254:growth & development; D009181:Mycoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000382:microbiology / Q000662:veterinary*; D015995:Prevalence
keywords: chytridiomycosis; climate change; epidemiology; host × pathogen × environment interaction; mountain ecosystems; multi-host communities