title: UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) Probability Wheel.
abstract: A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant," about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 107 W Dean Keeton Street Stop C0800 Austin, TX 78712, USA; Department of Plastic Surgery, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Blvd. Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors.forename: Sheng-Cheng
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 107 W Dean Keeton Street Stop C0800 Austin, TX 78712, USA.
authors.forename: Sara
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 107 W Dean Keeton Street Stop C0800 Austin, TX 78712, USA.
authors.forename: Allen
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Services Research, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Unit 1444, P.O. Box 301402, Houston, TX 77230-1402, USA.
authors.forename: Scott B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Cantor
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 107 W Dean Keeton Street Stop C0800 Austin, TX 78712, USA; Department of Plastic Surgery, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Blvd. Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors.forename: Clement
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 107 W Dean Keeton Street Stop C0800 Austin, TX 78712, USA.
authors.forename: Kaili
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Fan
authors.affiliation: Department of Plastic Surgery, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Blvd. Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors.forename: Gregory P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Reece
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Management and Informatics, The University of Missouri, CE707 Clinical Support & Education Building, DC006.00 Columbia, MO 65212, USA.
authors.forename: Min Soon
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, 107 W Dean Keeton Street Stop C0800 Austin, TX 78712, USA; Department of Imaging Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Blvd. Houston, TX 77030, USA.
authors.forename: Mia K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Markey
keywords: Probability wheel; cognitive biases; decision-making; heuristic judgment; mobile application; preference elicitation; probability estimation; software development