title: Influence of the Flavored Cigarette Ban on Adolescent Tobacco Use.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  This paper estimated the association between the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's 2009 ban on flavored cigarettes (which did not apply to menthol cigarettes or tobacco products besides cigarettes) and adolescents' tobacco use.
  
  
  METHODS
  Regression modeling was used to evaluate tobacco use before and after the ban. The analyses controlled for a quadratic time trend, demographic variables, prices of cigarettes and other tobacco products, and teenage unemployment rate. Data from the 1999-2013 National Youth Tobacco Surveys were collected and analyzed in 2016. The sample included 197,834 middle and high schoolers. Outcomes were past 30-day cigarette use; cigarettes smoked in the past 30 days among smokers; rate of menthol cigarette use among smokers; and past 30-day use of cigars, smokeless tobacco, pipes, any tobacco products besides cigarettes, and any tobacco products including cigarettes.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Banning flavored cigarettes was associated with reductions in the probability of being a cigarette smoker (17%, p<0.001) and cigarettes smoked by smokers (58%, p=0.005). However, the ban was positively associated with the use by smokers of menthol cigarettes (45%, p<0.001), cigars (34%, p<0.001), and pipes (55%, p<0.001), implying substitution toward the remaining legal flavored tobacco products. Despite increases in some forms of tobacco, overall there was a 6% (p<0.001) reduction in the probability of using any tobacco.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results suggest the 2009 flavored cigarette ban did achieve its objective of reducing adolescent tobacco use, but effects were likely diminished by the continued availability of menthol cigarettes and other flavored tobacco products.
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn, Germany. Electronic address: ccourtemanche@gsu.edu.
authors.forename: Charles J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Courtemanche
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia.
authors.forename: Makayla K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Palmer
authors.affiliation: Division of Health Policy and Economics, Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medicine, Cornell University, New York, New York.
authors.forename: Michael F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Pesko
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D005421:Flavoring Agents; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D013334:Students / Q000523:psychology; D062789:Tobacco Products / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D014030:Tobacco, Smokeless / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D014481:United States; D014486:United States Food and Drug Administration
chemical_list: D005421:Flavoring Agents