title: Long-Term Temporal Trends of Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Their Controlling Sources in China.
abstract: Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are industrial organic contaminants identified as persistent, bioaccumulative, toxic (PBT), and subject to long-range transport (LRT) with global scale significance. This study focuses on a reconstruction and prediction for China of long-term emission trends of intentionally and unintentionally produced (UP) ∑7PCBs (UP-PCBs, from the manufacture of steel, cement and sinter iron) and their re-emissions from secondary sources (e.g., soils and vegetation) using a dynamic fate model (BETR-Global). Contemporary emission estimates combined with predictions from the multimedia fate model suggest that primary sources still dominate, although unintentional sources are predicted to become a main contributor from 2035 for PCB-28. Imported e-waste is predicted to play an increasing role until 2020-2030 on a national scale due to the decline of intentionally produced (IP) emissions. Hypothetical emission scenarios suggest that China could become a potential source to neighboring regions with a net output of ∼0.4 t year-1by around 2050. However, future emission scenarios and hence model results will be dictated by the efficiency of control measures.
authors.affiliation: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University , Lancaster, LA14YQ, United Kingdom.|State Key Laboratory of Organic Geochemistry, Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Guangzhou 510640, China.
authors.forename: Shizhen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Institute for Air Research , Box 100, NO-2027 Kjeller, Norway.|Department of Chemistry, University of Oslo , Box 1033, NO-0315 Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Knut
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Breivik
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology, Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences , P.O. Box 2871, Beijing 100085, China.
authors.forename: Guorui
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Chemistry and Ecotoxicology, Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences , P.O. Box 2871, Beijing 100085, China.
authors.forename: Minghui
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zheng
authors.affiliation: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University , Lancaster, LA14YQ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Kevin C
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.affiliation: Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University , Lancaster, LA14YQ, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9230-8536
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Sweetman
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls; D012987:Soil; D013232:Steel
chemical_list: D012987:Soil; D013232:Steel; D011078:Polychlorinated Biphenyls