title: Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch.
abstract: Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, 11790, USA.
authors.forename: Casey
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6343-3311
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Youngflesh
authors.affiliation: Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, 02543, USA.|Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle, Villiers en Bois, FR-79360, France.
authors.forename: Stephanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Jenouvrier
authors.affiliation: University of South Florida, College of Marine Science, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA.
authors.forename: Yun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, 02543, USA.
authors.forename: Rubao
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ji
authors.affiliation: HT Harvey and Associates, Los Gatos, California, 95032, USA.
authors.forename: David G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Ainley
authors.affiliation: Point Blue Conservation Science, Petaluma, California, 94954, USA.
authors.forename: Grant
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Ballard
authors.affiliation: Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle, Villiers en Bois, FR-79360, France.
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Barbraud
authors.affiliation: Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle, Villiers en Bois, FR-79360, France.
authors.forename: Karine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Delord
authors.affiliation: US Geological Survey, Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, 97331, USA.
authors.forename: Katie M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Dugger
authors.affiliation: Department of the Environment, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050, Australia.
authors.forename: Louise M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Emmerson
authors.affiliation: Polar Oceans Research Group, Sheridan, Montana, 59749, USA.
authors.forename: William R
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Fraser
authors.affiliation: Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, 92037, USA.
authors.forename: Jefferson T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Hinke
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, Lincoln, 7640, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Phil O'B
authors.initials: PO
authors.lastname: Lyver
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Siena, Siena, 53100, Italy.|Museo Nazionale dell'Antartide Sezione di Siena, Siena, 53100, Italy.
authors.forename: Silvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Olmastroni
authors.affiliation: Department of the Environment, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050, Australia.
authors.forename: Colin J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Southwell
authors.affiliation: Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, 92037, USA.
authors.forename: Susan G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Trivelpiece
authors.affiliation: Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, 92037, USA.
authors.forename: Wayne Z
authors.initials: WZ
authors.lastname: Trivelpiece
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, 11790, USA.
authors.forename: Heather J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Lynch
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000864:Antarctic Regions; D057231:Climate Change; D004463:Ecology; D010641:Phenotype; D012098:Reproduction; D012621:Seasons; D046429:Spheniscidae / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: 
  Pygoscelis adeliae
  ; Anna Karenina Principle; Antarctica; Bayesian hierarchical model; asynchrony; climate change; phenology; quantile regression