title: Characteristics and outcome of long-stay patients in a paediatric intensive care unit in Cape Town, South Africa.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Paediatric intensive care is a costly, specialised and limited resource in low- and middle-income countries. The implications of extended paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) stay in South Africa (SA) are not known.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To describe the characteristics, outcomes and resource consumption of long-stay patients (LSPs) and to identify predictive factors for long PICU stay.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective review of routinely collected data on all children admitted to an SA PICU over one calendar year. Long PICU stay was defined statistically as &gt;19 days. Long- and short-stay patient (SSP) groups were compared, and variables significantly associated with long stay on univariate analysis were entered into a stepwise multiple regression model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Over the study period, 1 126 children (median age 8 months, 60.9% male) were admitted to the PICU, occupying 5 936 bed-days; 54  LSPs (4.8%) utilised 1 807 (30.4%) bed-days. Mortality and the standardised mortality ratio (actual/mean predicted mortality) in LSPs and SSPs were 29.6% v. 12% (p=0.002) and 2.4 v. 0.7 (p=0.002), respectively. Median duration of stay for LSPs and SSPs was 29.5 days and 2 days, respectively (p&lt;0.0001). LSPs were younger than SSPs (median 4 months (interquartile range 2 - 17) v. 9 months (2 - 34); p=0.03), and fewer were male (48% v. 61.6%, p=0.049). On multivariate analysis, only female gender was independently associated with long PICU stay.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  LSPs represent a small proportion of PICU admissions, yet have a higher mortality rate than SSPs and consume disproportionate PICU resources. No predictive model could be established for early recognition of potential LSPs to plan PICU bed allocation effectively.
authors.affiliation: Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, South Africa. brenda.morrow@uct.ac.za.
authors.forename: T L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Nupen
authors.forename: A C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Argent
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Morrow