title: The Association Between Changes in Insulin Sensitivity and Consumption of Tobacco and Alcohol in Young Adults: Ordinal Logistic Regression Approach.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Reduced insulin sensitivity is one of the traditional risk factors for chronic diseases such as type 2 diabetes. Reduced insulin sensitivity leads to insulin resistance, which in turn can lead to the development of type 2 diabetes. Few studies have examined factors such as blood pressure, tobacco and alcohol consumption that influence changes in insulin sensitivity over time especially among young adults.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To examine temporal changes in insulin sensitivity in young adults (18-30 years of age at baseline) over a period of 20 years by taking into account the effects of tobacco and alcohol consumptions at baseline. In other words, the purpose of the present study is to examine if baseline tobacco and alcohol consumptions can be used in predicting lowered insulin sensitivity.
  
  
  METHODS
  This is a retrospective study using data collected by the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Participants were enrolled into the study in 1985 (baseline) and followed up to 2005. Insulin sensitivity, measured by the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), was recorded at baseline and 20 years later, in 2005. The number of participants included in the study was 3,547. The original study included a total of 5,112 participants at baseline. Of these, 54.48% were female, and 45.52% were male; 45.31% were 18 to 24 years of age, and 54.69% were 25 to 30 years of age. Ordinal logistic regression was used to assess changes in insulin sensitivity. Changes in insulin sensitivity from baseline were calculated and grouped into three categories (more than 15%, more than 8.5% to at most 15%, and at most 8.5%), which provided the basis for employing ordinal logistic regression to assess changes in insulin sensitivity. The effects of alcohol and smoking consumption at baseline on the change in insulin sensitivity were accounted for by including these variables in the model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Daily alcohol consumption (ml/day) at baseline was not associated with changes in insulin sensitivity (OR = 0.998, 95% CI 0.995-1.001), while the number of cigarettes consumed per day at baseline was statistically significantly associated with changes in insulin sensitivity (OR = 1.016, 95% CI 1.007-1.025). Covariates such as age (OR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.031-1.071), mean arterial blood pressure (OR = 0.986, 95% CI 0.977-0.994), body-mass index (OR = 0.951, 95% CI 0.936-0.965), race (OR = 0.840, 95% CI 0.735-0.960), and sex (OR = 0.561, 95% CI 0.483-0.652) were significantly associated with changes in insulin sensitivity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  After adjusting for relevant covariates, the daily tobacco consumption at baseline was independently associated with changes in insulin sensitivity. But we were not able to replicate the association between daily alcohol consumption at baseline and changes in insulin resistance reported by other studies. Further studies in different populations and settings are warranted to examine the association between alcohol consumption and changes in insulin resistance.
authors.affiliation: Mathematics and Statistics Department, Western Wyoming Community College.
authors.forename: Dragan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Skropanic
authors.affiliation: School of Health Sciences, Walden University.
authors.forename: Gudeta
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Fufaa
authors.affiliation: School of Health Sciences, Walden University.
authors.forename: Bin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cai
keywords: diabetes; insulin resistance; insulin sensitivity; ordinal logistic regression; quicki; young adults