title: How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates?
abstract: In response to the marked number of injection-induced earthquakes in north-central Oklahoma, regulators recently called for a 40% reduction in the volume of saltwater being injected in the seismically active areas. We present a calibrated statistical model that predicts that widely feltM≥ 3 earthquakes in the affected areas, as well as the probability of potentially damaging larger events, should significantly decrease by the end of 2016 and approach historic levels within a few years. Aftershock sequences associated with relatively large magnitude earthquakes that occurred in the Fairview, Cherokee, and Pawnee areas in north-central Oklahoma in late 2015 and 2016 will delay the rate of seismicity decrease in those areas.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
authors.forename: Cornelius
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Langenbruch
authors.affiliation: Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
authors.forename: Mark D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Zoback
keywords: Earthquake forecasting; induced seismicity; saltwater injection; seismic hazard