title: Adding fossil occupancy trajectories to the assessment of modern extinction risk.
abstract: Besides helping to identify species traits that are commonly linked to extinction risk, the fossil record may also be directly relevant for assessing the extinction risk of extant species. Standing geographical distribution or occupancy is a strong predictor of both recent and past extinction risk, but the role of changes in occupancy is less widely assessed. Here we demonstrate, based on the Cenozoic fossil record of marine species, that both occupancy and its temporal trajectory are significant determinants of risk. Based on extinct species we develop a model on the additive and interacting effects of occupancy and its temporal changes on extinction risk. We use this model to predict extinction risk of extant species. The predictions suggest a moderate risk for marine species on average. However, some species seem to be on a long-term decline and potentially at a latent extinction risk, which is not considered in current risk assessments.
authors.affiliation: GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Department of Geography and Geosciences, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Loewenichstraße 28, 91054 Erlangen, Germany wolfgang.kiessling@fau.de.
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-1088-2014
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Kiessling
authors.affiliation: GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Department of Geography and Geosciences, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Loewenichstraße 28, 91054 Erlangen, Germany.|MTA-MTM-ELTE Research Group for Paleontology, Eötvös University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, 1117 Budapest, Hungary.|Department of Physical and Applied Geology, Eötvös University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/C, 1117 Budapest, Hungary.
authors.forename: Ádám T
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9028-665X
authors.initials: ÁT
authors.lastname: Kocsis
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D005580:Fossils; D007448:Invertebrates; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010163:Paleontology / Q000379:methods; D011157:Population Dynamics
keywords: extinction risk; geographical occupancy; palaeobiology