title: Epidemic Potential for Local Transmission of Zika Virus in 2015 and 2016 in Queensland, Australia.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Zika virus could be transmitted in the state of Queensland, Australia, in parts of the state where the mosquito vectors are established.
  
  
  METHODS
  We assessed the epidemic potential of Zika in Queensland from January 2015 to August 2016, and estimate the epidemic potential from September to December 2016, by calculating the temperature-dependent relative vectorial capacity (rVc), based on empirical and estimated parameters.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Through 2015, we estimated a rVc of 0.119, 0.152, 0.170, and 0.175, respectively in the major cities of Brisbane, Rockhampton, Cairns, and Townsville. From January to August 2016, the epidemic potential trend was similar to 2015, however the highest epidemic potential was in Cairns. During September to November 2016, the epidemic potential is consistently the highest in Cairns, followed by Townsville, Rockhampton and Brisbane. Then, from November to December 2016, Townsville has the highest estimated epidemic potential.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We demonstrate using a vectorial capacity model that ZIKV could have been locally transmitted in Queensland, Australia during 2015 and 2016. ZIKV remains a threat to Australia for the upcoming summer, during the Brazilian Carnival season, when the abundance of vectors is relatively high. Understanding the epidemic potential of local ZIKV transmission will allow better management of threats to blood safety and assessment of public health risk.
authors.affiliation: Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Elvina
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Viennet
authors.affiliation: Centre for Population Health Research, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Gina
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Mincham
authors.affiliation: Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation & School of Biomedical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Francesca D
authors.initials: FD
authors.lastname: Frentiu
authors.affiliation: Metro North Public Health Unit, Metro North Hospital and Health Service, Windsor, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Cassie C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Jansen
authors.affiliation: Metro South Public Health Unit, Metro South Hospital and Health Service, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Brian L
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: Montgomery
authors.affiliation: Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Harley
authors.affiliation: Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Robert L P
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Flower
authors.affiliation: Centre for Population Health Research, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Craig R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: Research and Development, Australian Red Cross Blood Service, Kelvin Grove, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Helen M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Faddy