title: Estimating Burdens of Neglected Tropical Zoonotic Diseases on Islands with Introduced Mammals.
abstract: Many neglected tropical zoonotic pathogens are maintained by introduced mammals, and on islands the most common introduced species are rodents, cats, and dogs. Management of introduced mammals, including control or eradication of feral populations, which is frequently done for ecological restoration, could also reduce or eliminate the pathogens these animals carry. Understanding the burden of these zoonotic diseases is crucial for quantifying the potential public health benefits of introduced mammal management. However, epidemiological data are only available from a small subset of islands where these introduced mammals co-occur with people. We examined socioeconomic and climatic variables as predictors for disease burdens of angiostrongyliasis, leptospirosis, toxoplasmosis, toxocariasis, and rabies from 57 islands or island countries. We found strong correlates of disease burden for leptospirosis,Toxoplasma gondiiinfection, angiostrongyliasis, and toxocariasis with more than 50% of the variance explained, and an average of 57% (range = 32-95%) predictive accuracy on out-of-sample data. We used these relationships to provide estimates of leptospirosis incidence andT. gondiiseroprevalence infection on islands where nonnative rodents and cats are present. These predicted estimates of disease burden could be used in an initial assessment of whether the costs of managing introduced mammal reservoirs might be less than the costs of perpetual treatment of these diseases on islands.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California.
authors.forename: Luz A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: de Wit
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California.
authors.forename: Donald A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Croll
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California.
authors.forename: Bernie
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Tershy
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California.
authors.forename: Kelly M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Newton
authors.affiliation: Island Conservation, Santa Cruz, California.|Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California.
authors.forename: Dena R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Spatz
authors.affiliation: Island Conservation, Santa Cruz, California.
authors.forename: Nick D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Holmes
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California.
authors.forename: A Marm
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Kilpatrick
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000469:parasitology / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D062312:Islands; D007922:Leptospirosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000662:veterinary; D008322:Mammals / Q000469:parasitology / Q000821:virology; D011634:Public Health; D011818:Rabies / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000662:veterinary; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D017206:Strongylida Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000662:veterinary; D014120:Toxocariasis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014124:Toxoplasmosis, Animal / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000469:parasitology / Q000821:virology