title: Climate change reduces extent of temperate drylands and intensifies drought in deep soils.
abstract: Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in extent and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the twenty first century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers could be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as a global study that focuses on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly populated areas.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Basel, Section of Conservation Biology, 4056 Basel, Switzerland.|Department of Botany, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA.
authors.forename: Daniel R
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9973-2065
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Schlaepfer
authors.affiliation: US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona 86001, USA.
authors.forename: John B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Bradford
authors.affiliation: Department of Botany, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA.|Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, USA.
authors.forename: William K
authors.initials: WK
authors.lastname: Lauenroth
authors.affiliation: US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Flagstaff, Arizona 86001, USA.
authors.forename: Seth M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Munson
authors.affiliation: Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Biology, Biodiversity and Ecological Modeling, 14195 Berlin, Germany.|Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Britta
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Tietjen
authors.affiliation: Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Washington State University, Wenatchee, Washington 98801, USA.|SAH Ecologia LLC, 669 Crawford Avenue, Wenatchee, Washington 98801, USA.
authors.forename: Sonia A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Hall
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, S4S 0A2, Canada.|Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, 981 07 Abisko, Sweden.
authors.forename: Scott D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.affiliation: US Geological Survey, Southwest Biological Science Center, Moab, Utah 84532, USA.
authors.forename: Michael C
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9643-2785
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Duniway
authors.affiliation: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
authors.forename: Gensuo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Jia
authors.affiliation: US Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.
authors.forename: David A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Pyke
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, School of Arts and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 210646, Mongolia.
authors.forename: Ariuntsetseg
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lkhagva
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 80523, USA.
authors.forename: Khishigbayar
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Jamiyansharav