title: Spatial Analysis of Dengue Seroprevalence and Modeling of Transmission Risk Factors in a Dengue Hyperendemic City of Venezuela.
abstract: Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is spatially heterogeneous. Hence, to stratify dengue prevalence in space may be an efficacious strategy to target surveillance and control efforts in a cost-effective manner particularly in Venezuela where dengue is hyperendemic and public health resources are scarce. Here, we determine hot spots of dengue seroprevalence and the risk factors associated with these clusters using local spatial statistics and a regression modeling approach.
  
  
  
  From August 2010 to January 2011, a community-based cross-sectional study of 2012 individuals in 840 households was performed in high incidence neighborhoods of a dengue hyperendemic city in Venezuela. Local spatial statistics conducted at household- and block-level identified clusters of recent dengue seroprevalence (39 hot spot households and 9 hot spot blocks) in all neighborhoods. However, no clusters were found for past dengue seroprevalence. Clustering of infection was detected at a very small scale (20-110m) suggesting a high disease focal aggregation. Factors associated with living in a hot spot household were occupation (being a domestic worker/housewife (P = 0.002), lower socio-economic status (living in a shack (P<0.001), sharing a household with <7 people (P = 0.004), promoting potential vector breeding sites (storing water in containers (P = 0.024), having litter outdoors (P = 0.002) and mosquito preventive measures (such as using repellent, P = 0.011). Similarly, low socio-economic status (living in crowded conditions, P<0.001), having an occupation of domestic worker/housewife (P = 0.012) and not using certain preventive measures against mosquitoes (P<0.05) were directly associated with living in a hot spot block.
  
  
  
  Our findings contribute to a better comprehension of the spatial dynamics of dengue by assessing the relationship between disease clusters and their risk factors. These results can inform health authorities in the design of surveillance and control activities. Focalizing dengue control measures during epidemic and inter-epidemic periods to disease high risk zones at household and neighborhood-level may significantly reduce virus transmission in comparison to random interventions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Maria F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Vincenti-Gonzalez
authors.affiliation: Laboratorio de Biología de Vectores y Parásitos, Instituto de Zoología y Ecología Tropical, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela.
authors.forename: María-Eugenia
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Grillet
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Zoraida I
authors.initials: ZI
authors.lastname: Velasco-Salas
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Erley F
authors.initials: EF
authors.lastname: Lizarazo
authors.affiliation: Centro de Estudio de Enfermedades Endémicas y Salud Ambiental, Instituto de Altos Estudios "Dr. Arnoldo Gabaldón", Ministerio de Salud, Maracay, Aragua, Venezuela.
authors.forename: Manuel A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Amarista
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas "Dr. Francisco J. Triana-Alonso", Universidad de Carabobo, Maracay, Venezuela.
authors.forename: Gloria M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Sierra
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas "Dr. Francisco J. Triana-Alonso", Universidad de Carabobo, Maracay, Venezuela.
authors.forename: Guillermo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Comach
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.|Departamento de Parasitología, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Carabobo, Valencia, Venezuela.
authors.forename: Adriana
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-1918-9144
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Tami
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology; D000818:Animals; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000097:blood; D002648:Child; D002947:Cities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003715:Dengue / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D003716:Dengue Virus / Q000276:immunology / Q000502:physiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology; D008297:Male; D012307:Risk Factors; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D014687:Venezuela / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000914:Antibodies, Viral