title: Seafood prices reveal impacts of a major ecological disturbance.
abstract: Coastal hypoxia (dissolved oxygen ≤ 2 mg/L) is a growing problem worldwide that threatens marine ecosystem services, but little is known about economic effects on fisheries. Here, we provide evidence that hypoxia causes economic impacts on a major fishery. Ecological studies of hypoxia and marine fauna suggest multiple mechanisms through which hypoxia can skew a population's size distribution toward smaller individuals. These mechanisms produce sharp predictions about changes in seafood markets. Hypoxia is hypothesized to decrease the quantity of large shrimp relative to small shrimp and increase the price of large shrimp relative to small shrimp. We test these hypotheses using time series of size-based prices. Naive quantity-based models using treatment/control comparisons in hypoxic and nonhypoxic areas produce null results, but we find strong evidence of the hypothesized effects in the relative prices: Hypoxia increases the relative price of large shrimp compared with small shrimp. The effects of fuel prices provide supporting evidence. Empirical models of fishing effort and bioeconomic simulations explain why quantifying effects of hypoxia on fisheries using quantity data has been inconclusive. Specifically, spatial-dynamic feedbacks across the natural system (the fish stock) and human system (the mobile fishing fleet) confound "treated" and "control" areas. Consequently, analyses of price data, which rely on a market counterfactual, are able to reveal effects of the ecological disturbance that are obscured in quantity data. Our results are an important step toward quantifying the economic value of reduced upstream nutrient loading in the Mississippi Basin and are broadly applicable to other coupled human-natural systems.
authors.affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708; marsmith@duke.edu.|Department of Economics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708.
authors.forename: Martin D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Department of Industrial Economics, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger, Norway.
authors.forename: Atle
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Oglend
authors.affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708.
authors.forename: A Justin
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Kirkpatrick
authors.affiliation: Department of Industrial Economics, University of Stavanger, 4036 Stavanger, Norway.|Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0240.
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Asche
authors.affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708.|Department of Economics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708.|Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708.
authors.forename: Lori S
authors.initials: LS
authors.lastname: Bennear
authors.affiliation: National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Beaufort Laboratory, Beaufort, NC 28516.
authors.forename: J Kevin
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Craig
authors.affiliation: National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Galveston Laboratory, Galveston, TX 77551.
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Nance
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D049628:Body Size; D003132:Commerce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005308:Fertilizers / Q000009:adverse effects; D005398:Fisheries / Q000191:economics*; D060851:Gulf of America; D006802:Human Activities / Q000191:economics; D010100:Oxygen / Q000032:analysis; D033561:Penaeidae / Q000502:physiology*; D017747:Seafood / Q000191:economics*; D012621:Seasons; D012623:Seawater / Q000737:chemistry; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000009:adverse effects; D014876:Water Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000191:economics*
chemical_list: D005308:Fertilizers; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D010100:Oxygen
keywords: bioeconomics; coupled human-natural systems; fisheries; hypoxia; spatial dynamics