title: Development of a model to predict the 10-year cumulative risk of second primary cancer among cancer survivors.
abstract: To develop a prediction model to quantify the cumulative risk of Second Primary Cancer (SPC) among cancer patients given that they survive their disease.
  
  
  
  A cohort of 293,435 patients based on data from twelve French cancer registries was analyzed. For five first cancer sites, SPC incidence rates were estimated using Poisson regression models. The cumulative risks of SPC were computed for different follow-up times. For comparison purpose, the same method was used to estimate the probability of cancer in the general population.
  
  
  
  In this population-based cohort, 27,320 patients presented with a SPC. The cumulative risk of SPC varied depending on first cancer site, with a 10-year cumulative probability of SPC ranging from 6.2% for women with breast cancer to 44.0% for men with head and neck cancer. Compared with the general population, the 10-year cumulative risk of SPC was dramatically elevated for tobacco-related first cancers, with an increase of +7.3% for men aged 55 to 64 with a first lung cancer and +35.6% for men aged 45 to 54 with a first head and neck cancer. Lower differences were observed among patients diagnosed with a first prostate cancer (+5.5% among men aged 55 to 64), colorectal (+4.1% for women aged 55 to 64 and +6.3% for men aged 55 to 64), and breast (+2.0% among females aged 75 and older) cancers.
  
  
  
  This study provides physicians with a practical estimate to assess the risk of SPC of their patients more accurately.
authors.affiliation: Registre des cancers du Bas-Rhin, Laboratoire d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique, EA3430, FMTS, Université de Strasbourg, 4 rue Kirschleger, 67085 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Service de Santé Publique, Hôpitaux Universitaires de Strasbourg, 1 place de l'hôpital, 67091 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: mmoitry@unistra.fr.
authors.forename: Marie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Moitry
authors.affiliation: Registre des cancers du Bas-Rhin, Laboratoire d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique, EA3430, FMTS, Université de Strasbourg, 4 rue Kirschleger, 67085 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Service de Santé Publique, Hôpitaux Universitaires de Strasbourg, 1 place de l'hôpital, 67091 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Service d'épidémiologie et de biostatistique, Centre Paul Strauss, 3 rue de la porte de l'hôpital, 67065 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: michel.velten@unistra.fr.
authors.forename: Michel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Velten
authors.affiliation: Registre des tumeurs de l'Hérault, Centre de Recherche, 208 rue des Apothicaires, 34298 Montpellier CEDEX 5, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: registre-tumeur@wanadoo.fr.
authors.forename: Brigitte
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Trétarre
authors.affiliation: Registre des cancers de la Manche, Centre Hospitalier Public du Cotentin, 46 rue du Val de Saire, 50102 Cherbourg-Octeville, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: s.bara@ch-cherbourg.fr.
authors.forename: Simona
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bara
authors.affiliation: Registre des cancers du Tarn, 1, rue Lavazière BP 37, 81001 Albi CEDEX, France; Institut Claudius Regaud, IUCT-O, LEASP - UMR 1027 Inserm - Université Toulouse III, 1 avenue Irène Joliot-Curie, 31059 Toulouse CEDEX 9, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: laetitia.daubisse-marliac@inserm.fr.
authors.forename: Laetitia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Daubisse-Marliac
authors.affiliation: Registre du cancer de la Somme, Service Épidémiologie, Hygiène et Santé Publique, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Nord, 1 place Victor Pauchet, 80054 Amiens CEDEX 1, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: lapotre-ledoux.benedicte@chu-amiens.fr.
authors.forename: Bénédicte
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lapôtre-Ledoux
authors.affiliation: Registre des hémopathies malignes de Basse-Normandie, Unité Fonctionnelle Hospitalo- Universitaire n°0350, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Nord, avenue de la Côte de Nacre, 14033 Caen CEDEX, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: troussard-x@chu-caen.fr.
authors.forename: Xavier
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Troussard
authors.affiliation: Registre des cancers de Loire-Atlantique et Vendée, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Nantes, 50 route de Saint-Sébastien, 44093 Nantes CEDEX 1, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: fmolinie@chu-nantes.fr.
authors.forename: Florence
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Molinié
authors.affiliation: Registre général des cancers de Lille et de sa région, GCS C2RC, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Lille Hôpital Calmette, boulevard du Professeur Jules Leclercq, 59037 Lille CEDEX, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: kligier@registrecancers59.fr.
authors.forename: Karine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ligier
authors.affiliation: Registre des tumeurs du Doubs et du Territoire de Belfort - EA3181, Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Besançon Saint-Jacques, 2 place Saint-Jacques, 25030 Besançon CEDEX, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: asworonoff@chu-besancon.fr.
authors.forename: Anne-Sophie
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Woronoff
authors.affiliation: Registre des tumeurs digestives du Calvados, Cancers & Préventions - U 1086 Inserm, Centre François Baclesse, 3 avenue du Général Harris, BP 5026 14076 Caen CEDEX 5, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: veronique.bouvier@unicaen.fr.
authors.forename: Véronique
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Bouvier
authors.affiliation: Registre des cancers de l'Isère, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Grenoble Pavillon E, boulevard de la Chantourne BP 217, 38043 Grenoble CEDEX 9, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: mcolonna.registre@wanadoo.fr.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Colonna
authors.affiliation: Registre des cancers du Bas-Rhin, Laboratoire d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique, EA3430, FMTS, Université de Strasbourg, 4 rue Kirschleger, 67085 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: delphine.klein@unistra.fr.
authors.forename: Delphine
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Klein
authors.affiliation: Registre général des tumeurs du Calvados, Cancers & Préventions - U 1086 Inserm, Centre François Baclesse, 3 avenue du Général Harris, BP 5026 14076 Caen CEDEX 5, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: av.guizard@baclesse.fr.
authors.forename: Anne-Valérie
authors.initials: AV
authors.lastname: Guizard
authors.affiliation: Registre des cancers du Bas-Rhin, Laboratoire d'Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique, EA3430, FMTS, Université de Strasbourg, 4 rue Kirschleger, 67085 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Service de Santé Publique, Hôpitaux Universitaires de Strasbourg, 1 place de l'hôpital, 67091 Strasbourg CEDEX, France; Francim: Réseau français des registres des cancers, 31073 Toulouse, France. Electronic address: jeremie.jegu@unistra.fr.
authors.forename: Jérémie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Jégu
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000150:complications*; D016609:Neoplasms, Second Primary / Q000209:etiology*; D012042:Registries; D012307:Risk Factors; D017741:Survivors / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Cumulative risk; France; Neoplasm; Projection and prediction; Registries; Risk assessment; Second primary