title: Anthropogenically driven environmental changes shift the ecological dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.
abstract: Zoonoses are increasingly recognized as an important burden on global public health in the 21st century. High-resolution, long-term field studies are critical for assessing both the baseline and future risk scenarios in a world of rapid changes. We have used a three-decade-long field study on hantavirus, a rodent-borne zoonotic pathogen distributed worldwide, coupled with epidemiological data from an endemic area of China, and show that the shift in the ecological dynamics of Hantaan virus was closely linked to environmental fluctuations at the human-wildlife interface. We reveal that environmental forcing, especially rainfall and resource availability, exert important cascading effects on intra-annual variability in the wildlife reservoir dynamics, leading to epidemics that shift between stable and chaotic regimes. Our models demonstrate that bimodal seasonal epidemics result from a powerful seasonality in transmission, generated from interlocking cycles of agricultural phenology and rodent behavior driven by the rainy seasons.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Huaiyu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Pengbo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.affiliation: Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania.
authors.forename: Ottar N
authors.initials: ON
authors.lastname: Bjørnstad
authors.affiliation: Ecologie & Evolution, UMR 7625, UPMC-ENS, Paris, France.|UMMISCO UMI 209 IRD - UPMC, Bondy, France.
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7972-361X
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cazelles
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Hua
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tan
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Shanqian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yujun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Cui
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Lu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Dong
authors.affiliation: Xi'an Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Chaofeng
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: Hu County Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Changan
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Sen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Marko
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-5914-6747
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Laine
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Xiaoxu
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yanyun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Shaanxi Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Jingjun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Ruifu
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of OsloBlindern, Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Nils Chr
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Stenseth
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.|Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Bing
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Xu
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004463:Ecology; D004777:Environment; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography; D018063:Hantaan virus / Q000502:physiology*; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D054884:Host-Pathogen Interactions; D006801:Humans; D010802:Phylogeny; D011247:Pregnancy; D011891:Rain; D012306:Risk; D012377:Rodentia; D012621:Seasons; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology