title: Predicting Future Years of Life, Health, and Functional Ability: A Healthy Life Calculator for Older Adults.
abstract: Objective:To create personalized estimates of future health and ability status for older adults.Method:Data came from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), a large longitudinal study. Outcomes included years of life, years of healthy life (based on self-rated health), years of able life (based on activities of daily living), and years of healthy and able life. We developed regression estimates using the demographic and health characteristics that best predicted the four outcomes. Internal and external validity were assessed.Results:A prediction equation based on 11 variables accounted for about 40% of the variability for each outcome. Internal validity was excellent, and external validity was satisfactory. The resulting CHS Healthy Life Calculator (CHSHLC) is available at http://healthylifecalculator.org.Conclusion:CHSHLC provides a well-documented estimate of future years of healthy and able life for older adults, who may use it in planning for the future.
authors.affiliation: University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
authors.forename: Paula
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Diehr
authors.affiliation: California State University San Marcos, San Marcos, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Diehr
authors.affiliation: University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
authors.forename: Alice
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arnold
authors.affiliation: University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
authors.forename: Laura M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Yee
authors.affiliation: Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA.
authors.forename: Michelle C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Odden
authors.affiliation: UC Davis Medical Center, Sacramento, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Calvin H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Hirsch
authors.affiliation: University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; VA Medical Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Thielke
authors.affiliation: University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Group Health Research Institute of Group Health Cooperative, Seattle, WA, USA.
authors.forename: Bruce M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Psaty
authors.affiliation: University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
authors.forename: W Craig
authors.initials: WC
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.affiliation: Albert Einstein College of Medicine/Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Jorge R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Kizer Md
authors.affiliation: University of Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Newman
keywords: active life/physical activity; clinical gerontology; decision-making; demography; life expectancy/longevity; mortality; quality of life