title: Using cross-sectional surveys to estimate the number of severely malnourished children needing to be enrolled in specific treatment programmes.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  When planning severe acute malnutrition (SAM) treatment services, estimates of the number of children requiring treatment are needed. Prevalence surveys, used with population estimates, can directly estimate the number of prevalent cases but not the number of subsequent incident cases. Health managers often use a prevalence-to-incidence conversion factor (J) derived from two African cohort studies to estimate incidence and add the expected number of incident cases to prevalent cases to estimate expected SAM caseload for a given period. The present study aimed to estimate J empirically in different contexts.
  
  
  METHODS
  Observational study, with J estimated by correlating expected numbers of children to be treated, based on prevalence surveys, population estimates and assumed coverage, with the observed numbers of SAM patients treated.
  
  
  METHODS
  Survey and programme data from six African and Asian countries.
  
  
  METHODS
  Twenty-four data sets including prevalence surveys and programme admissions data for 5 months following the survey.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A statistically significant relationship between the number of SAM cases admitted to SAM treatment services and the estimated burden of SAM from prevalence surveys was found. Estimate for the slope (intercept forced to be zero) was 2·17 (95 % CI 1·33, 3·79). Estimates for the prevalence-to-incidence conversion factor J varied from 2·81 to 11·21, assuming programme coverage of 100 % and 38 %, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Estimation of expected caseload from prevalence may require revision of the currently used prevalence-to-incidence conversion factor J of 1·6. Appropriate values for J may vary between different locations.
authors.affiliation: 1Tampere Centre for Child Health Research,University of Tampere and Tampere University Hospital,Lääkärinkatu 1,33014 University of Tampere,Finland.
authors.forename: Nancy M
authors.initials: NM
authors.lastname: Dale
authors.affiliation: 2Brixton Health,Llawryglyn,UK.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Myatt
authors.affiliation: 3Save the Children,London,UK.
authors.forename: Claudine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Prudhon
authors.affiliation: 1Tampere Centre for Child Health Research,University of Tampere and Tampere University Hospital,Lääkärinkatu 1,33014 University of Tampere,Finland.
authors.forename: André
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Briend
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D001208:Asia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D015995:Prevalence; D000067011:Severe Acute Malnutrition / Q000453:epidemiology*
keywords: Burden; Nutrition; Prevalence; Severe acute malnutrition treatment services; Surveys