title: Anticipating changes to future connectivity within a network of marine protected areas.
abstract: Continental boundary currents are projected to be altered under future scenarios of climate change. As these currents often influence dispersal and connectivity among populations of many marine organisms, changes to boundary currents may have dramatic implications for population persistence. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) often aim to maintain connectivity, but anticipation of the scale and extent of climatic impacts on connectivity are required to achieve this critical conservation goal in a future of climate change. For two key marine species (kelp and sea urchins), we use oceanographic modelling to predict how continental boundary currents are likely to change connectivity among a network of MPAs spanning over 1000 km of coastline off the coast of eastern Australia. Overall change in predicted connectivity among pairs of MPAs within the network did not change significantly over and above temporal variation within climatic scenarios, highlighting the need for future studies to incorporate temporal variation in dispersal to robustly anticipate likely change. However, the intricacies of connectivity between different pairs of MPAs were noteworthy. For kelp, poleward connectivity among pairs of MPAs tended to increase in the future, whereas equatorward connectivity tended to decrease. In contrast, for sea urchins, connectivity among pairs of MPAs generally decreased in both directions. Self-seeding within higher-latitude MPAs tended to increase, and the role of low-latitude MPAs as a sink for urchins changed significantly in contrasting ways. These projected changes have the potential to alter important genetic parameters with implications for adaptation and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. Considering such changes, in the context of managing and designing MPA networks, may ensure that conservation goals are achieved into the future.
authors.affiliation: Department of Primary Industries, New South Wales Fisheries, PO Box 4321, Coffs Harbour, NSW, 2450, Australia.|National Marine Science Centre, Southern Cross University, 2 Bay Drive, Coffs Harbour, NSW, 2450, Australia.
authors.forename: Melinda A
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-2623-633X
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Coleman
authors.affiliation: Regional and Coastal Oceanography Laboratory, School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.|Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.
authors.forename: Paulina
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Cetina-Heredia
authors.affiliation: Regional and Coastal Oceanography Laboratory, School of Mathematics and Statistics, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.|Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Mosman, NSW, 2088, Australia.
authors.forename: Moninya
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Roughan
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Indian Ocean Marine Research Centre, M097, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, UNSW Australia, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.|Grantham Institute & Department of Physics, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, SW7 2AZ London, UK.
authors.forename: Erik
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: van Sebille
authors.affiliation: National Marine Science Centre, Southern Cross University, 2 Bay Drive, Coffs Harbour, NSW, 2450, Australia.
authors.forename: Brendan P
authors.initials: BP
authors.lastname: Kelaher
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D011157:Population Dynamics
keywords: 
  Centrostephanus rodgersii
  ; 
  Ecklonia radiata
  ; climate change; dispersal; kelp; marine reserve; ocean currents; urchin