title: A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales.
abstract: Novel climates - emerging conditions with no analog in the observational record - are an open problem in ecological modeling. Detecting extrapolation into novel conditions is a critical step in evaluating bioclimatic projections of how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change. However, biologically informed novelty detection methods remain elusive for many modeling algorithms. To assist with bioclimatic model design and evaluation, we present a first-approximation assessment of general novelty based on a simple and consistent characterization of climate. We build on the seminal global analysis of Williams et al. (2007 PNAS, 104, 5738) by assessing of end-of-21st-century novelty for North America at high spatial resolution and by refining their standardized Euclidean distance into an intuitive Mahalanobian metric called sigma dissimilarity. Like this previous study, we found extensive novelty in end-of-21st-century projections for the warm southern margin of the continent as well as the western Arctic. In addition, we detected localized novelty in lower topographic positions at all latitudes: By the end of the 21st century, novel climates are projected to emerge at low elevations in 80% and 99% of ecoregions in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, respectively. Novel climates are limited to 7% of the continent's area in RCP4.5, but are much more extensive in RCP8.5 (40% of area). These three risk factors for novel climates - regional susceptibility, topographic position, and the magnitude of projected climate change - represent a priori evaluation criteria for the credibility of bioclimatic projections. Our findings indicate that novel climates can emerge in any landscape. Interpreting climatic novelty in the context of nonlinear biological responses to climate is an important challenge for future research.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics and Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, 3041-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T1Z4, Canada.
authors.forename: Colin R
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-6111-5675
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Mahony
authors.affiliation: Environment and Climate Change Canada, 3800 Finnerty Rd, Victoria, BC, V8P 5C2, Canada.
authors.forename: Alex J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Cannon
authors.affiliation: Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics and Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, 3041-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T1Z4, Canada.
authors.forename: Tongli
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Centre for Forest Conservation Genetics and Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, 3041-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T1Z4, Canada.
authors.forename: Sally N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Aitken
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D020387:Food Chain; D005544:Forecasting; D009656:North America
keywords: Mahalanobis distance; bioclimate; climate change; climate envelope; model extrapolation; no-analog; novel climates; species distribution modeling