A model to predict the onset of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease within 2 years in elderly adults.
OBJECTIVE
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common cause of chronic hepatitis, which leads to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, it is difficult to identify subjects at high risk for NAFLD onset. This study aims to construct a model to predict the onset of NAFLD within 2 years in elderly adults.


METHODS
This study included and followed 3378 initial NAFLD-free subjects aged 60 years or over for 2 years, which were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set. NAFLD was diagnosed on ultrasound. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded at baseline. A model was constructed in the training set to predict the onset of NAFLD and validated in the validation set.


RESULTS
Body mass index, hemoglobin, fasting blood glucose, and triglycerides were identified as predictors for the onset of NAFLD. A risk score (R) was calculated by them. It classified the subjects into low-risk group (R ≤ -2.88), moderate-risk group (-2.88 < R ≤ -1.26), and high-risk group (R > -1.26). In the training set, 4.68% of the participants in the low-risk group, 11.59% of the participants in the moderate-risk group, and 31.02% of the participants in the high-risk group developed NAFLD. In the validation set, 5.84% of the participants in the low-risk group, 10.57% of the participants in the moderate-risk group, and 29.44% of the participants in the high-risk group developed NAFLD.


CONCLUSIONS
This study developed a model to predict the onset of NAFLD in elderly adults, which might provide indications for intervention to these subjects.
Organization Department, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Ya-Jie
YJ
Lin
Health Examination Center, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Xi-Mei
XM
Gao
Department of Gynecology, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Wei-Wei
WW
Pan
Department of Hepatology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Shuai
S
Gao
Health Examination Center, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Zhen-Zhen
ZZ
Yu
Health Examination Center, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Ping
P
Xu
Department of Hepatology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
Xiao-Peng
XP
Fan
D000367:Age Factors; D017668:Age of Onset; D000368:Aged; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D001786:Blood Glucose; D015992:Body Mass Index; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006454:Hemoglobins; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D065626:Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012306:Risk; D013997:Time Factors; D014463:Ultrasonography
D015415:Biomarkers; D001786:Blood Glucose; D006454:Hemoglobins
elderly adults; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease; noninvasive model; onset risk