Interactions between demography and environmental effects are important determinants of population dynamics.
Climate change will affect the population dynamics of many species, yet the consequences for the long-term persistence of populations are poorly understood. A major reason for this is that density-dependent feedback effects caused by fluctuations in population size are considered independent of stochastic variation in the environment. We show that an interplay between winter temperature and population density can influence the persistence of a small passerine population under global warming. Although warmer winters favor an increased mean population size, density-dependent feedback can cause the local population to be less buffered against occasional poor environmental conditions (cold winters). This shows that it is essential to go beyond the population size and explore climate effects on the full dynamics to elaborate targeted management actions.
Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway.
Marlène
M
Gamelon
Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway.
Vidar
V
Grøtan
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
Anna L K
0000-0002-5609-4988
AL
Nilsson
Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway.
Steinar
S
Engen
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
James W
JW
Hurrell
Jerstad Viltforvaltning, Aurebekksveien 61, 4516 Mandal, Norway.
Kurt
K
Jerstad
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
Adam S
AS
Phillips
Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, 1432 Ås, Norway.
Ole W
OW
Røstad
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
Tore
T
Slagsvold
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway.
Bjørn
B
Walseng
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
Nils C
NC
Stenseth
Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway.
Bernt-Erik
BE
Sæther
D057232:Global Warming; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012621:Seasons
Dipper; density dependence; environmental stochasticity; immigration; population dynamics; warming