Prediction and explanation in social systems.
Historically, social scientists have sought out explanations of human and social phenomena that provide interpretable causal mechanisms, while often ignoring their predictive accuracy. We argue that the increasingly computational nature of social science is beginning to reverse this traditional bias against prediction; however, it has also highlighted three important issues that require resolution. First, current practices for evaluating predictions must be better standardized. Second, theoretical limits to predictive accuracy in complex social systems must be better characterized, thereby setting expectations for what can be predicted or explained. Third, predictive accuracy and interpretability must be recognized as complements, not substitutes, when evaluating explanations. Resolving these three issues will lead to better, more replicable, and more useful social science.
Microsoft Research, 641 Avenue of the Americas, 7th Floor, New York, NY 10003, USA. jmh@microsoft.com amshar@microsoft.com duncan@microsoft.com.
Jake M
JM
Hofman
Microsoft Research, 641 Avenue of the Americas, 7th Floor, New York, NY 10003, USA. jmh@microsoft.com amshar@microsoft.com duncan@microsoft.com.
Amit
A
Sharma
Microsoft Research, 641 Avenue of the Americas, 7th Floor, New York, NY 10003, USA. jmh@microsoft.com amshar@microsoft.com duncan@microsoft.com.
Duncan J
DJ
Watts