Quantifying the contribution of asymptomatic infection to the cumulative incidence.
Many infectious diseases in humans may manifest with no or mild symptoms. While numerous studies have estimated the proportion of infectious individuals in whom symptoms are absent during the entire course of infection, the contribution of asymptomatic cases to the overall cumulative incidence is difficult to untangle. Here, with a mathematical model, we provide a simple analytical formula to quantify this contribution and highlight the potential for large errors that can arise when naively estimating it.
Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory,York University,Toronto,CanadaM3J 1P3.
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0000-0002-7090-8757
D
Champredon
Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory,York University,Toronto,CanadaM3J 1P3.
S M
SM
Moghadas
D058345:Asymptomatic Infections; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008962:Models, Theoretical
Asymptomatic infection; epidemiology; mathematical modelling; public health