Use of social network analysis and global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to better understand an influenza outbreak.
In the summer of 2014, an influenza A(H3N2) outbreak occurred in Yichang city, Hubei province, China. A retrospective study was conducted to collect and interpret hospital and epidemiological data on it using social network analysis and global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Results for degree (χ2=17.6619, P<0.0001) and betweenness(χ2=21.4186, P<0.0001) centrality suggested that the selection of sampling objects were different between traditional epidemiological methods and newer statistical approaches. Clique and network diagrams demonstrated that the outbreak actually consisted of two independent transmission networks. Sensitivity analysis showed that the contact coefficient (k) was the most important factor in the dynamic model. Using uncertainty analysis, we were able to better understand the properties and variations over space and time on the outbreak. We concluded that use of newer approaches were significantly more efficient for managing and controlling infectious diseases outbreaks, as well as saving time and public health resources, and could be widely applied on similar local outbreaks.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.|Department of Infectious Diseases, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yichang City, Hubei, China.
Jianhua
J
Liu
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
Hongbo
H
Jiang
Department of Infectious Diseases, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yichang City, Hubei, China.
Hao
H
Zhang
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Chun
C
Guo
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.|Department of Infectious Diseases, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yichang City, Hubei, China.
Lei
L
Wang
Department of Infectious Diseases, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yichang City, Hubei, China.
Jing
J
Yang
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.
Shaofa
S
Nie
D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D053122:Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012944:Social Support; D035501:Uncertainty
control of infectious diseases; field epidemiology; global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses; social network analysis