Phase of care prevalence for prostate cancer in New South Wales, Australia: A population-based modelling study.
OBJECTIVE
To develop a method for estimating the future numbers of prostate cancer survivors requiring different levels of care.


METHODS
Analysis of population-based cancer registry data for prostate cancer cases (aged 18-84 years) diagnosed in 1996-2007, and a linked dataset with hospital admission data for men with prostate cancer diagnosed during 2005-2007 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia.


METHODS
Cancer registry data (1996-2007) were used to project complete prostate cancer prevalence in NSW, Australia for 2008-2017, and treatment information from hospital records (2005-2007) was used to estimate the inpatient care needs during the first year after diagnosis. The projected complete prevalence was divided into care needs-based groups. We first divided the cohort into two groups based on patient's age (<75 and 75-84 years). The younger cohort was further divided into initial care and monitoring phases. Cause of death data were used as a proxy for patients requiring last year of life prostate cancer care. Finally, episode data were used to estimate the future number of cases with metastatic progression.


RESULTS
Of the estimated total of 60,910 men with a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer in 2017, the largest groups will be older patients (52.0%) and younger men who require monitoring (42.5%). If current treatment patterns continue, in the first year post-diagnosis 41% (1380) of patients (<75 years) will have a radical prostatectomy, and 52.6% (1752) will be likely to have either active surveillance, external beam radiotherapy or androgen deprivation therapy. About 3% will require care for subsequent metastases, and 1288 men with prostate cancer are likely to die from the disease in 2017.


CONCLUSIONS
This method extends the application of routinely collected population-based data, and can contribute much to the knowledge of the number of men with prostate cancer and their health care requirements. This could be of significant use in planning future cancer care services and facilities in Australia.
Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.|Sydney School of Public Health, the University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Xue Qin
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8638-7979
XQ
Yu
Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.|Sydney School of Public Health, the University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Qingwei
Q
Luo
Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.|Menzies Health Institute Queensland, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
David P
DP
Smith
Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.|Nordic Information for Action eScience Center, Stockholm, Sweden.|Swedish e-Science Research Centre, KTH, Department of Mechanics, Stockholm, Sweden.
Mark S
MS
Clements
Discipline of Surgery, the University of Sydney and Department of Urology, Westmead Hospital, Sydney, Australia.
Manish I
MI
Patel
Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.|Sydney School of Public Health, the University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.|School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia.
Dianne L
DL
O'Connell
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003695:Delivery of Health Care; D018450:Disease Progression; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009517:New South Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D011159:Population Surveillance; D015995:Prevalence; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D012042:Registries; D017741:Survivors; D055815:Young Adult