A model to estimate cost-savings in diabetic foot ulcer prevention efforts.
BACKGROUND
Sustained efforts at preventing diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) and subsequent leg amputations are sporadic in most health care systems despite the high costs associated with such complications. We sought to estimate effectiveness targets at which cost-savings (i.e. improved health outcomes at decreased total costs) might occur.


METHODS
A Markov model with probabilistic sensitivity analyses was used to simulate the five-year survival, incidence of foot complications, and total health care costs in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people with diabetes. Clinical event and cost estimates were obtained from previously-published trials and studies. A population without previous DFU but with 17% neuropathy and 11% peripheral artery disease (PAD) prevalence was assumed. Primary prevention (PP) was defined as reducing initial DFU incidence.


RESULTS
PP was more than 90% likely to provide cost-savings when annual prevention costs are less than $50/person and/or annual DFU incidence is reduced by at least 25%. Efforts directed at patients with diabetes who were at moderate or high risk for DFUs were very likely to provide cost-savings if DFU incidence was decreased by at least 10% and/or the cost was less than $150 per person per year.


CONCLUSIONS
Low-cost DFU primary prevention efforts producing even small decreases in DFU incidence may provide the best opportunity for cost-savings, especially if focused on patients with neuropathy and/or PAD. Mobile phone-based reminders, self-identification of risk factors (ex. Ipswich touch test), and written brochures may be among such low-cost interventions that should be investigated for cost-savings potential.
Division of Vascular Surgery and Endovascular Therapy, Michael E. Debakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine/Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX, 77030. Electronic address: nbarshes@bcm.tmc.edu.
Neal R
NR
Barshes
Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX.
Samira
S
Saedi
Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
James
J
Wrobel
Michael E. DeBakey Department of Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX.
Panos
P
Kougias
Department of Industrial Engineering, Ozyegin University, Istanbul, Turkey.
O Erhun
OE
Kundakcioglu
Southern Arizona Limb Salvage Alliance (SALSA), University of Arizona College of Medicine, Tucson, AZ.
David G
DG
Armstrong
D000328:Adult; D000671:Amputation, Surgical / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000191:economics; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003131:Combined Modality Therapy / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000191:economics; D017046:Cost Savings; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003925:Diabetic Angiopathies / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000628:therapy; D017719:Diabetic Foot / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000628:therapy; D003929:Diabetic Neuropathies / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000628:therapy; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008390:Markov Chains; D018803:Models, Economic; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014493:United States Department of Veterans Affairs; D058014:Veterans Health / Q000191:economics
Amputation; Cost-effectiveness; Cost-utility study; Diabetic foot ulcer; Economic evaluation; Prevention