Belief that Experiments Work and Equal Distribution of Ignorance: What Happens when these Tendencies Compete?
Subjects were presented with hypothetical experiments and given results for the experimental or control conditions, in terms of relative frequency of occurrence of favorable or unfavorable outcomes on a dependent variable. They then estimated likelihood of outcome on the dependent variable for the other condition in absolute terms and relative to the condition with given results Individuals frequently made two estimates that were incompatible with each other. For example, they often judged that the control condition had a 50% chance of producing a favorable outcome, but that the likelihood of a favorable outcome for the control condition was less than that for an experimental condition producing 20? favorable outcomes. Results were interpreted in terms of preexisting belief in the efficacy of experimental intervention, a tendency to assign a probability of .50 to an event in the face of uncertainty, and information-processing difficulties in integrating judgments made in different contexts.
a Department of Psychology , University of Louisville , USA.
Irwin D
ID
Nahinsky