Managing uncertainty in the clinical prediction of risk of harm: Bringing a Bayesian approach to forensic mental health.
Predicting the likelihood of harm posed by mentally disordered offenders remains controversial. It is proposed that a Bayesian approach may help quantify the uncertainty surrounding such prediction. An example of this approach quantifying the risk of breast cancer in the event of a positive mammogram is provided. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Institute of Mental Health, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Conor
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3740-5688
C
Duggan
Partnerships in Care, Llanarth Court, UK.
Roland
R
Jones
D001499:Bayes Theorem; D057237:Criminals / Q000523:psychology*; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry; D006801:Humans; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000523:psychology*; D008603:Mental Health; D012306:Risk; D016728:Self-Injurious Behavior / Q000523:psychology*; D035501:Uncertainty