Analysis of Influenza and RSV dynamics in the community using a 'Local Transmission Zone' approach.
Understanding the dynamics of pathogen spread within urban areas is critical for the effective prevention and containment of communicable diseases. At these relatively small geographic scales, short-distance interactions and tightly knit sub-networks dominate the dynamics of pathogen transmission; yet, the effective boundaries of these micro-scale groups are generally not known and often ignored. Using clinical test results from hospital admitted patients we analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) in the city of Jerusalem over a period of three winter seasons. We demonstrate that this urban area is not a single, perfectly mixed ecology, but is in fact comprised of a set of more basic, relatively independent pathogen transmission units, which we term here Local Transmission Zones, LTZs. By identifying these LTZs, and using the dynamic pathogen-content information contained within them, we are able to differentiate between disease-causes at the individual patient level often with near-perfect predictive accuracy.
Flurensics Inc., Tel Aviv, 64101 Israel.|School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.
Gal
G
Almogy
School of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia.|Department of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Lewi
L
Stone
Department of Physics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
B Andrei
BA
Bernevig
Department of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center, Jerusalem 91120, Isreal.
Dana G
DG
Wolf
Department of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center, Jerusalem 91120, Isreal.
Marina
M
Dorozko
Department of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center, Jerusalem 91120, Isreal.
Allon E
AE
Moses
Department of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center, Jerusalem 91120, Isreal.
Ran
R
Nir-Paz
D002947:Cities; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D018357:Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D012621:Seasons