title: Validation of prognostic indices in Egyptian Budd-Chiari syndrome patients: A single-center study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To compare predictive ability of Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) prognostic indices (PIs) for one-year survival and Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) patency.
  
  
  METHODS
  This retrospective study enrolled 194 Egyptian patients with primary BCS who presented to the Budd-Chiari Study Group of Ain Shams University Hospital. Calculation of the available PIs was performed using Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease scores, BCS-specific PIs (Clichy, New Clichy and Rotterdam) for all patients, and BCS-TIPS PI only for patients who underwent TIPS. The overall one-year survival rate and the one-year shunt patency rate for TIPS were reported.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The overall one-year survival rate was 69.6%, and the New Clichy PI revealed the best validity for its prediction at a cut-off value of 3.75, with sensitivity and specificity of 78% and 73.3%, respectively [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.806]. The one-year survival rate post-TIPS was 89.7%, and the BCS-TIPS score demonstrated validity for its prediction at a cut-off value of 3.92 (sensitivity and specificity were 71.4% and 64.5%, respectively) (AUC = 0.715). Logistic regression analysis revealed that the New Clichy PI (P= 0.030), high serum total bilirubin (P= 0.047) and low albumin (P< 0.001) were independent factors for predicting mortality within one year. The one-year shunt patency rate in TIPS was 80.2%, and none of the PIs exhibited significant validity for its prediction.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The New Clichy score could independently predict the one-year survival in Egyptian BCS patients.
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Mohammad
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sakr
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Sara M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Abdelhakam
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Soheir A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Elsayed
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Enas H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Allam
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Amir M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Farid
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Waleed
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Abdelmoaty
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Azza M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Hassan
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Mohamed
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Shaker
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Mohamed
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: El-Gharib
authors.affiliation: Mohammad Sakr, Sara M Abdelhakam, Soheir A Elsayed, Enas H Allam, Amir M Farid, Waleed Abdelmoaty, Department of Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ain Shams University, Cairo 11341, Egypt.
authors.forename: Ahmed
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Eldorry
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D019540:Area Under Curve; D006502:Budd-Chiari Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis*; D004534:Egypt; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D019168:Portasystemic Shunt, Transjugular Intrahepatic; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D015607:Stents; D015996:Survival Rate; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Budd-Chiari syndrome; New Clichy score; One-year survival; Prognostic indices; Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt