title: Resilience through adaptation.
abstract: Adaptation of agents through learning or evolution is an important component of the resilience of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). Without adaptation, the flexibility of such systems to cope with outside pressures would be much lower. To study the capabilities of CAS to adapt, social simulations with agent-based models (ABMs) provide a helpful tool. However, the value of ABMs for studying adaptation depends on the availability of methodologies for sensitivity analysis that can quantify resilience and adaptation in ABMs. In this paper we propose a sensitivity analysis methodology that is based on comparing time-dependent probability density functions of output of ABMs with and without agent adaptation. The differences between the probability density functions are quantified by the so-called earth-mover's distance. We use this sensitivity analysis methodology to quantify the probability of occurrence of critical transitions and other long-term effects of agent adaptation. To test the potential of this new approach, it is used to analyse the resilience of an ABM of adaptive agents competing for a common-pool resource. Adaptation is shown to contribute positively to the resilience of this ABM. If adaptation proceeds sufficiently fast, it may delay or avert the collapse of this system.
authors.affiliation: Biometris, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Guus A
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9956-7415
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Ten Broeke
authors.affiliation: Biometris, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: George A K
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: van Voorn
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Geo-information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Arend
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ligtenberg
authors.affiliation: Biometris, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jaap
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Molenaar
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological; D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D006802:Human Activities; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012919:Social Behavior