title: Prospective Prediction of Juvenile Homicide/Attempted Homicide among Early-Onset Juvenile Offenders.
abstract: While homicide perpetrated by juveniles is a relatively rare occurrence, between 2010 and 2014, approximately 7%-8% of all murders involved a juvenile offender. Unfortunately, few studies have prospectively examined the predictors of homicide offending, with none examining first-time murder among a sample of adjudicated male and female youth. The current study employed data on 5908 juvenile offenders (70% male, 45% Black) first arrested at the age of 12 or younger to prospectively examine predictors of an arrest for homicide/attempted homicide by the age of 18. Among these early-onset offenders, males, Black youth, those living in households with family members with a history of mental illness, those engaging in self-mutilation, and those with elevated levels of anger/aggression (all measured by age 13) were more likely to be arrested for homicide/attempted homicide by age 18. These findings add to the scant scientific literature on the predictors of homicide, and illustrate potential avenues for intervention.
authors.affiliation: G4S Youth Services, LLC, Tampa, FL 33634, USA. Michael.baglivio@us.g4s.com.
authors.forename: Michael T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Baglivio
authors.affiliation: Department of Criminal Justice, John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York, New York, NY 10019, USA. kwolff@jjay.cuny.edu.
authors.forename: Kevin T
authors.initials: KT
authors.lastname: Wolff
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001741:Black or African American / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002648:Child; D057237:Criminals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005431:Florida; D005544:Forecasting; D006708:Homicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D008297:Male; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment
keywords: homicide; juvenile offending; murder; violence