title: Predicting short-term survival after liver transplantation on eight score systems: a national report from China Liver Transplant Registry.
abstract: To compare the performance of eight score systems (MELD, uMELD, MELD-Na. iMELD, UKELD, MELD-AS, CTP, and mCTP) in predicting the post-transplant mortality, we analyzed the data of 6,014 adult cirrhotic patients who underwent liver transplantation between January 2003 and December 2010 from the China Liver Transplant Registry database. In hepatitis B virus (HBV) group, MELD, uMELD and MELD-AS showed good predictive accuracies at 3-month mortality after liver transplantation; by comparison with other five models, MELD presented the best ability in predicting 3-month, 6-month and 1-year mortality, showing a significantly better predictive ability than UKELD and iMELD. In hepatitis C virus and Alcohol groups, the predictive ability did not differ significantly between MELD and other models. Patient survivals in different MELD categories were of statistically significant difference. Among patients with MELD score >35, a new prognostic model based on serum creatinine, need for hemodialysis and moderate ascites could identify the sickest one. In conclusion, MELD is superior to other score systems in predicting short-term post-transplant survival in patients with HBV-related liver disease. Among patients with MELD score >35, a new prognostic model can identify the sickest patients who should be excluded from waiting list to prevent wasteful transplantation.
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Collaborative innovation center for diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Qi
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Ling
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Collaborative innovation center for diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Haojiang
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Dai
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Collaborative innovation center for diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Runzhou
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Zhuang
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Collaborative innovation center for diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Tian
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Shen
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Collaborative innovation center for diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Weilin
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Collaborative innovation center for diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Xiao
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Collaborative innovation center for diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases, the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Shusen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zheng
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D019540:Area Under Curve; D002681:China; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000628:therapy; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012042:Registries; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors