title: Risk mapping of West Nile virus circulation in Spain, 2015.
abstract: West Nile fever is an emergent disease in Europe. The objective of this study was to conduct a predictive risk mapping of West Nile Virus (WNV) circulation in Spain based on historical data of WNV circulation. Areas of Spain with evidence of WNV circulation were mapped based on data from notifications to the surveillance systems and a literature review. A logistic regression-based spatial model was used to assess the probability of WNV circulation. Data were analyzed at municipality level. Mean temperatures of the period from June to October, presence of wetlands and presence of Special Protection Areas for birds were considered as potential predictors. Two predictors of WNV circulation were identified: higher temperature [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.07, 95% CI 1.82-2.35, p<0.01] and presence of wetlands (3.37, 95% CI 1.89-5.99, p<0.01). Model validations indicated good predictions: area under the ROC curve was 0.895 (95% CI 0.870-0.919) for internal validation and 0.895 (95% CI 0.840-0.951) for external validation. This model could support improvements of WNV risk- based surveillance in Spain. The importance of a comprehensive surveillance for WNF, including human, animal and potential vectors is highlighted, which could additionally result in model refinements.
authors.affiliation: Coordinating Centre for Health Alerts and Emergencies, General Directorate of Public Health, Quality and Innovation, Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality, Madrid, Spain Paseo del Prado 18-20, 28071 Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: amayasgomez@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Amaya
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Gómez
authors.affiliation: Coordinating Centre for Health Alerts and Emergencies, General Directorate of Public Health, Quality and Innovation, Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality, Madrid, Spain Paseo del Prado 18-20, 28071 Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: camela@msssi.es.
authors.forename: Carmen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Amela
authors.affiliation: VISAVET Centre and Animal Health Department, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Complutense University, Avenida Puerta de Hierro, s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: eduardofernandezcarrion@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Eduardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Fernández-Carrión
authors.affiliation: VISAVET Centre and Animal Health Department, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Complutense University, Avenida Puerta de Hierro, s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: mmaviles@ucm.es.
authors.forename: Marta
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Martínez-Avilés
authors.affiliation: VISAVET Centre and Animal Health Department, Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Complutense University, Avenida Puerta de Hierro, s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: jmvizcaino@ucm.es.
authors.forename: José Manuel
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Vizcaíno
authors.affiliation: Coordinating Centre for Health Alerts and Emergencies, General Directorate of Public Health, Quality and Innovation, Ministry of Health, Social Services and Equality, Madrid, Spain Paseo del Prado 18-20, 28071 Madrid, Spain. Electronic address: jsierra@msssi.es.
authors.forename: María José
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Sierra-Moros
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000821:virology; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D013696:Temperature; D014901:West Nile Fever / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014902:West Nile virus; D053833:Wetlands
keywords: Risk assessment; Spain; West Nile virus