title: Metapopulation Tracking Juvenile Penguins Reveals an Ecosystem-wide Ecological Trap.
abstract: Climate change and fisheries are transforming the oceans, but we lack a complete understanding of their ecological impact [1-3]. Environmental degradation can cause maladaptive habitat selection, inducing ecological traps with profound consequences for biodiversity [4-6]. However, whether ecological traps operate in marine systems is unclear [7]. Large marine vertebrates may be vulnerable to ecological traps [6], but their broad-scale movements and complex life histories obscure the population-level consequences of habitat selection [8, 9]. We satellite tracked postnatal dispersal in African penguins (Spheniscus demersus) from eight sites across their breeding range to test whether they have become ecologically trapped in the degraded Benguela ecosystem. Bayesian state-space and habitat models show that penguins traversed thousands of square kilometers to areas of low sea surface temperatures (14.5°C-17.5°C) and high chlorophyll-a (∼11 mg m-3). These were once reliable cues for prey-rich waters, but climate change and industrial fishing have depleted forage fish stocks in this system [10, 11]. Juvenile penguin survival is low in populations selecting degraded areas, and Bayesian projection models suggest that breeding numbers are ∼50% lower than if non-impacted habitats were used, revealing the extent and effect of a marine ecological trap for the first time. These cascading impacts of localized forage fish depletion-unobserved in studies on adults-were only elucidated via broad-scale movement and demographic data on juveniles. Our results support suspending fishing when prey biomass drops below critical thresholds [12, 13] and suggest that mitigation of marine ecological traps will require matching conservation action to the scale of ecological processes [14].
authors.affiliation: Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK; Bristol Zoological Society, Bristol Zoo Gardens, Bristol BS8 3HA, UK; Animal Demography Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa. Electronic address: r.sherley@exeter.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Richard B
authors.initials: RB
authors.lastname: Sherley
authors.affiliation: Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
authors.forename: Katrin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ludynia
authors.affiliation: Oceans and Coasts Branch, Department of Environmental Affairs, Cape Town 8000, South Africa.
authors.forename: Bruce M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Dyer
authors.affiliation: Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa; Oceans and Coasts Branch, Department of Environmental Affairs, Cape Town 8000, South Africa.
authors.forename: Tarron
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Lamont
authors.affiliation: Oceans and Coasts Branch, Department of Environmental Affairs, Cape Town 8000, South Africa.
authors.forename: Azwianewi B
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Makhado
authors.affiliation: Animal Demography Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa; Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources, PO Box 394, Lüderitz, Namibia.
authors.forename: Jean-Paul
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Roux
authors.affiliation: Institute of Marine Sciences, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, 99 Pacific Street, Suite 255A, Monterey, CA 93940, USA; School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, QLD 4558, Australia.
authors.forename: Kylie L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Scales
authors.affiliation: Animal Demography Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa; Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa.
authors.forename: Les G
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Underhill
authors.affiliation: Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK. Electronic address: s.c.votier@exeter.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Stephen C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Votier
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D005398:Fisheries; D009276:Namibia; D013019:South Africa; D046429:Spheniscidae / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: African penguin; dispersal; fisheries management; habitat quality; juvenile movement; marine conservation; marine ecological trap; satellite telemetry