title: Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation.
abstract: Social economy of China has been rapidly developing for more than 30years with efficient reforms and policies being issued. Societal developments have resulted in a greater use of many natural resources to the extent that the ecosystem can no longer self-regulate, thus severely damaging the balance of the ecosystem itself. This in turn has led to a deterioration in people's living environments. Our research is based on a combination of climate scenarios presented in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy scenarios, including the one-child policy and carbon tax policy. We adopted Land Change Modeler of IDRISI software to simulate and analyze land-use change under 16 future scenarios in 2050. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yields were quantified, based on those land-use maps and different ecosystem models. We also analyzed trade-offs and synergy among each ecosystem service and discussed why those interactions happened. The results show that: (1) Global climate change has a strong influence on future changes in land-use. (2) Carbon sequestration, water yield and soil conservation have a mutual relationship in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. (3) Climate change and implementation of policy have a conspicuous impact on the changes in ecosystem services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. This paper can be used as a reference for further related research, and provide a reliable basis for achieving the sustainable development of the ecosystem.
authors.affiliation: College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, 710062 Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Jingya
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, 710062 Xi'an, Shaanxi, China. Electronic address: lijing@snnu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Marine Geology and Environment, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 266000 Qingdao, Shandong, China.
authors.forename: Keyu
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Qin
authors.affiliation: College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, 710062 Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Zixiang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, 710062 Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Xiaonan
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, 710062 Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
authors.forename: Ting
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Li
mesh_terms: D057965:Carbon Sequestration; D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D012987:Soil; D014881:Water Supply
chemical_list: D012987:Soil
keywords: Ecosystem services; Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region; Land change modeler; Land-use; Scenario