title: Model-informed risk assessment for Zika virus outbreaks in the Asia-Pacific regions.
abstract: Recently, Zika virus (ZIKV) has been recognized as a significant threat to global public health. The disease was present in large parts of the Americas, the Caribbean, and also the western Pacific area with southern Asia during 2015 and 2016. However, little is known about the factors affecting the transmission of ZIKV. We used Gradient Boosted Regression Tree models to investigate the effects of various potential explanatory variables on the spread of ZIKV, and used current with historical information from a range of sources to assess the risks of future ZIKV outbreaks. Our results indicated that the probability of ZIKV outbreaks increases with vapor pressure, the occurrence of Dengue virus, and population density but decreases as health expenditure, GDP, and numbers of travelers. The predictive results revealed the potential risk countries of ZIKV infection in the Asia-Pacific regions between October 2016 and January 2017. We believe that the high-risk conditions would continue in South Asia and Australia over this period. By integrating information on eco-environmental, social-economical, and ZIKV-related niche factors, this study estimated the probability for locally acquired mosquito-borne ZIKV infections in the Asia-Pacific region and improves the ability to forecast, and possibly even prevent, future outbreaks of ZIKV.
authors.affiliation: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China. Electronic address: yueteng@sklpb.org.
authors.forename: Yue
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Teng
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China; Department of Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G1, Canada.
authors.forename: Dehua
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Bi
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China.
authors.forename: Guigang
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Xie
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China; Beijing Institute of Biotechnology, Beijing 100071, China.
authors.forename: Yuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Jin
authors.affiliation: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China.
authors.forename: Yong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Computational Neuroscience Program, Department of Psychology, Physics, and Computer Science and Engineering, Institute for Protein Design, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
authors.forename: Baihan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China.
authors.forename: Xiaoping
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: An
authors.affiliation: Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, China; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China. Electronic address: tong.yigang@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Yigang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Tong
authors.affiliation: Division of Standard Operational Management, Institute of Hospital Management, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing 100853, China. Electronic address: danfeng@sklpb.org.
authors.forename: Dan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Feng
mesh_terms: D000569:Americas / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D001208:Asia / Q000453:epidemiology; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D009033:Culicidae; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D000071244:Zika Virus; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission
keywords: Endemic; Forecasting; Modeling; Risk factors; Surveillance; Zika virus