title: Ratio of Systolic Blood Pressure to Right Atrial Pressure, a Novel Marker to Predict Morbidity and Mortality in Acute Systolic Heart Failure.
abstract: Congestion is the main contributor to heart failure (HF) morbidity and mortality. We assessed the combined role of congestion and decreased forward flow in predicting morbidity and mortality in acute systolic HF. The Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness trial data set was used to determine if the ratio of simultaneously measured systolic blood pressure (SBP)/right atrial pressure (RAP) on admission predicted HF rehospitalization and 6-month mortality. One hundred ninety-five patients (mean age 56.5 years, 75% men) who received pulmonary artery catheterization were studied. The RAP, SBP, and SBP/RAP had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.593 (p = 0.0205), 0.585 (p = 0.0359), and 0.621 (p = 0.0026), respectively, in predicting HF rehospitalization. The SBP/RAP was a superior marker of HF rehospitalization compared with RAP alone (difference in AUC 0.0289, p = 0.0385). The optimal criterion of SBP/RAP <11 provided the highest combined sensitivity (77.1%) and specificity (50.9%) in predicting HF rehospitalization. The SBP/RAP had an AUC 0.622, p = 0.0108, and a cut-off value of SBP/RAP <8 had a sensitivity of 61.9% and specificity 64.1% in predicting mortality. Multivariate analysis showed that an SBP/RAP <11 independently predicted rehospitalization for HF (estimated odds ratio 3.318, 95% confidence interval 1.692 to 6.506, p = 0.0005) and an SBP/RAP <8 independently predicted mortality (estimated hazard ratio 2.025, 95% confidence interval 1.069 to 3.833, p = 0.030). In conclusion, SBP/RAP ratio is a marker that identifies a spectrum of complications after hospitalization of patients with decompensated systolic HF, starting with increased incidence of HF rehospitalization at SBP/RAP <11 to increased mortality with SBP/RAP <8.
authors.affiliation: Internal Medicine Department, Mercy Medical Center, Clinton, Iowa. Electronic address: hesham.omar@apogeephysicians.com.
authors.forename: Hesham R
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Omar
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky; Department of Biostatistics, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Charnigo
authors.affiliation: Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Linda and Jack Gill Heart Institute, University of Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky.
authors.forename: Maya
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Guglin
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D062185:Atrial Pressure / Q000502:physiology*; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000032:analysis; D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000401:mortality* / Q000503:physiopathology*; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010359:Patient Readmission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013599:Systole
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers