title: Real-Time Assessment of Health-Care Requirements During the Zika Virus Epidemic in Martinique.
abstract: The spread of Zika virus in the Americas has been associated with a surge in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases. Given the severity of GBS, territories affected by Zika virus need to plan health-care resources to manage GBS patients. To inform such planning in Martinique, we analyzed Zika virus surveillance and GBS data from Martinique in real time with a modeling framework that captured dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic, the risk of GBS in Zika virus-infected persons, and the clinical management of GBS cases. We compared our estimates with those from the 2013-2014 Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia. We were able to predict just a few weeks into the epidemic that, due to lower transmission potential and lower probability of developing GBS following infection in Martinique, the total number of GBS cases in Martinique would be substantially lower than suggested by simple extrapolations from French Polynesia. We correctly predicted that 8 intensive-care beds and 7 ventilators would be sufficient to treat GBS cases. This study showcased the contribution of modeling to inform local health-care planning during an outbreak. Timely studies that estimate the proportion of infected persons that seek care are needed to improve the predictive power of such approaches.
authors.forename: Alessio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Andronico
authors.forename: Frédérique
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Dorléans
authors.forename: Jean-Louis
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Fergé
authors.forename: Henrik
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Salje
authors.forename: Frédéric
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ghawché
authors.forename: Aissatou
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Signate
authors.forename: Elise
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Daudens-Vaysse
authors.forename: Laure
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Baudouin
authors.forename: Timothée
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Dub
authors.forename: Maite
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Aubry
authors.forename: Van-Mai
authors.initials: VM
authors.lastname: Cao-Lormeau
authors.forename: Martine
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ledrans
authors.forename: Harold
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Noel
authors.forename: Henri-Pierre
authors.initials: HP
authors.lastname: Mallet
authors.forename: Arnaud
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fontanet
authors.forename: André
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cabié
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cauchemez
mesh_terms: D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D020275:Guillain-Barre Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D006285:Health Planning / Q000379:methods / Q000458:organization & administration*; D006801:Humans; D008395:Martinique / Q000453:epidemiology; D020380:Needs Assessment; D011114:Polynesia / Q000453:epidemiology; D000071243:Zika Virus Infection / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*
keywords: Guillain-Barré syndrome; Zika virus; epidemic forecasts; health-care planning