title: Determining informative priors for cognitive models.
abstract: The development of cognitive models involves the creative scientific formalization of assumptions, based on theory, observation, and other relevant information. In the Bayesian approach to implementing, testing, and using cognitive models, assumptions can influence both the likelihood function of the model, usually corresponding to assumptions about psychological processes, and the prior distribution over model parameters, usually corresponding to assumptions about the psychological variables that influence those processes. The specification of the prior is unique to the Bayesian context, but often raises concerns that lead to the use of vague or non-informative priors in cognitive modeling. Sometimes the concerns stem from philosophical objections, but more often practical difficulties with how priors should be determined are the stumbling block. We survey several sources of information that can help to specify priors for cognitive models, discuss some of the methods by which this information can be formalized in a prior distribution, and identify a number of benefits of including informative priors in cognitive modeling. Our discussion is based on three illustrative cognitive models, involving memory retention, categorization, and decision making.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine, USA. mdlee@uci.edu.
authors.forename: Michael D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
authors.forename: Wolf
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Vanpaemel
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002965:Classification; D003071:Cognition; D003657:Decision Making; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008568:Memory; D008960:Models, Psychological; D015233:Models, Statistical
keywords: Bayesian statistics; Cognitive modeling; Informative prior distributions; Model development; Prediction