title: Étude des stratégies de raisonnement causal dans l'estimation de la probabilité diagnostique à travers un paradigme expérimental de production de règle.
abstract: The objective of this research was to test for the existence of reasoning strategies in the estimation of the diagnostic probability: P(cause|effect). In two experiments, we show that estimation of this probability can be achieved by two paths that are formally distinct. The most intuitive approach (default strategy) consists in evaluating P(cause|effect) by means of retractable deduction type reasoning based on a retractable Modus Ponens (EFFECT; if EFFECT then CAUSE is probable; thus CAUSE is probable). The second strategy consists in estimating diagnostic probability using abductive reasoning corresponding to the affirmation of consequent argument (EFFECT; if CAUSE then EFFECT is probable; thus CAUSE is probable). In referring to a diagnostic probability estimation bias that is predicted in the structure induction model of Meder, Mayrhofer, and Waldmann (2009, 2014), we show that the choice of strategy is dependent on the empiric predictive probability found in the data: P(effect|cause). When that probability is low, participants prefer a retractable deduction type strategy; however, when P(effect|cause) is high, there is strong support for an abductive strategy. (PsycINFO Database Record
authors.affiliation: École Pratique des Hautes Études.
authors.forename: Jean-Louis
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Stilgenbauer
authors.affiliation: Université Paris 8.
authors.forename: Jean
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9566-486X
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Baratgin
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003071:Cognition / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007266:Inhibition, Psychological; D008128:Logic; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011336:Probability