title: Analysing trends and forecasting malaria epidemics in Madagascar using a sentinel surveillance network: a web-based application.
abstract: The use of a malaria early warning system (MEWS) to trigger prompt public health interventions is a key step in adding value to the epidemiological data routinely collected by sentinel surveillance systems.
  
  
  
  This study describes a system using various epidemic thresholds and a forecasting component with the support of new technologies to improve the performance of a sentinel MEWS. Malaria-related data from 21 sentinel sites collected by Short Message Service are automatically analysed to detect malaria trends and malaria outbreak alerts with automated feedback reports.
  
  
  
  Roll Back Malaria partners can, through a user-friendly web-based tool, visualize potential outbreaks and generate a forecasting model. The system already demonstrated its ability to detect malaria outbreaks in Madagascar in 2014.
  
  
  
  This approach aims to maximize the usefulness of a sentinel surveillance system to predict and detect epidemics in limited-resource environments.
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar. florian.girond@gmail.com.|UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UAG, UM, UR), Station SEAS-OI, Saint-Pierre, 175 CD 26, 97414, L'Entre-Deux, Ile de la Réunion, France. florian.girond@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Florian
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-3894-8505
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Girond
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
authors.forename: Laurence
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Randrianasolo
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar.|Ministry of Health, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
authors.forename: Lea
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Randriamampionona
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
authors.forename: Fanjasoa
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rakotomanana
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
authors.forename: Milijaona
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Randrianarivelojosia
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar.|Ministry of Health, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
authors.forename: Maherisoa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ratsitorahina
authors.affiliation: UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UAG, UM, UR), Station SEAS-OI, Saint-Pierre, 175 CD 26, 97414, L'Entre-Deux, Ile de la Réunion, France.|Université de la Réunion, Saint-Denis, Ile de la Réunion, France.
authors.forename: Télesphore Yao
authors.initials: TY
authors.lastname: Brou
authors.affiliation: UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UAG, UM, UR), Station SEAS-OI, Saint-Pierre, 175 CD 26, 97414, L'Entre-Deux, Ile de la Réunion, France.
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Herbreteau
authors.affiliation: UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UAG, UM, UR), Station SEAS-OI, Saint-Pierre, 175 CD 26, 97414, L'Entre-Deux, Ile de la Réunion, France.
authors.forename: Morgan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mangeas
authors.affiliation: U.S. President's Malaria Initiative, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
authors.forename: Sixte
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zigiumugabe
authors.affiliation: U.S. President's Malaria Initiative, Antananarivo, Madagascar.|Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
authors.forename: Judith
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hedje
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar.|Unité de recherche sur les maladies infectieuses et tropicales émergentes (URMITE), UMR 6236, Marseille, France.|Institute for Biomedical Research of the French Armed Forces (IRBA), Brétigny sur Orge, France.
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rogier
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
authors.forename: Patrice
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Piola
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D058872:Epidemics; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D020407:Internet; D008270:Madagascar / Q000453:epidemiology; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance; D012984:Software; D060145:Text Messaging; D055815:Young Adult