title: Anticipating species distributions: Handling sampling effort bias under a Bayesian framework.
abstract: Anticipating species distributions in space and time is necessary for effective biodiversity conservation and for prioritising management interventions. This is especially true when considering invasive species. In such a case, anticipating their spread is important to effectively plan management actions. However, considering uncertainty in the output of species distribution models is critical for correctly interpreting results and avoiding inappropriate decision-making. In particular, when dealing with species inventories, the bias resulting from sampling effort may lead to an over- or under-estimation of the local density of occurrences of a species. In this paper we propose an innovative method to i) map sampling effort bias using cartogram models and ii) explicitly consider such uncertainty in the modeling procedure under a Bayesian framework, which allows the integration of multilevel input data with prior information to improve the anticipation species distributions.
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach, Research and Innovation Centre, Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Via E. Mach 1, S. Michele all'Adige 38010, TN, Italy. Electronic address: duccio.rocchini@fmach.it.
authors.forename: Duccio
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rocchini
authors.affiliation: UR "Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés" (EDYSAN, FRE 3498 CNRS), 9 Université de Picardie Jules Verne, 1 rue des Louvels, Amiens Cedex 1 FR-80037, France.
authors.forename: Carol X
authors.initials: CX
authors.lastname: Garzon-Lopez
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach, Research and Innovation Centre, Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Via E. Mach 1, S. Michele all'Adige 38010, TN, Italy; Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, USA.
authors.forename: Matteo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Marcantonio
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, University of Siena, Via P.A. Mattioli 4, Siena 53100, Italy.
authors.forename: Valerio
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Amici
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, University of Trieste, Via L. Giorgieri 10, Trieste 34127, Italy.
authors.forename: Giovanni
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bacaro
authors.affiliation: School of Computer Science, Aston University, UK; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate D - Sustainable Resources.
authors.forename: Lucy
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bastin
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Neil
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Brummitt
authors.affiliation: BIGEA, Department of Biological, Geological and Environmental Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum, University of Bologna, Via Irnerio 42, Bologna 40126, Italy.
authors.forename: Alessandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chiarucci
authors.affiliation: University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.
authors.forename: Giles M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Foody
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach, Research and Innovation Centre, Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Via E. Mach 1, S. Michele all'Adige 38010, TN, Italy.
authors.forename: Heidi C
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Hauffe
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, Murray State University, Murray, KY 42071, USA.
authors.forename: Kate S
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Biology, University of Rome "La Sapienza", Rome 00185, Italy.
authors.forename: Carlo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ricotta
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach, Research and Innovation Centre, Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Via E. Mach 1, S. Michele all'Adige 38010, TN, Italy.
authors.forename: Annapaola
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rizzoli
authors.affiliation: Fondazione Edmund Mach, Research and Innovation Centre, Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Via E. Mach 1, S. Michele all'Adige 38010, TN, Italy.
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rosà
keywords: Anticipation; Bayesian theorem; Species distribution modeling; Uncertainty; sampling effort bias