title: Medial femur T2Z-scores predict the probability of knee structural worsening over 4-8 years: Data from the osteoarthritis initiative.
abstract: The purpose of this study was to determine the probability of structural worsening of knee cartilage and whole joint degeneration over 4-8 years based on cartilage T2Z-scores at baseline.
  
  
  
  Right knees with Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grades of 0-2 in 587 participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative were studied. 3T MR images were used to perform baseline cartilage T2quantification and assess 4-year changes in cartilage morphology (WORMS scoring) in 5 regions. Changes in joint space narrowing (JSN) and KL were assessed over 8 years. T2Z-scores were based on a reference database of knees without morphologic cartilage degeneration at baseline. Odds ratios for, and predicted probabilities of any worsening in WORMS cartilage, JSN and KL grade were obtained from logistic regression models.
  
  
  
  A one-unit increase in the baseline medial femur T2Z-score was associated with cartilage worsening in the same region (OR = 1.59; P < 0.0001) and in any region (OR = 1.37; P < 0.0001), and with worsening JSN (OR = 1.82; P < 0.0001) and KL grades (OR = 1.69; P < 0.0001). Predicted probabilities of worsening in knees with a medial femur T2Z-score from 2-4 were 38% for medial femur cartilage WORMS, 70% for any cartilage region, 28% for increasing JSN and 31% for increasing KL grade.
  
  
  
  Knees with elevated cartilage T2(especially in the medial femur and those that are 2 to 4 SDs above the mean reference values) are significantly more likely to have structural worsening over 4 to 8 years. Knowing cartilage T2Z-scores may aid in targeting prevention efforts at early stages of osteoarthritis.
  
  
  
  2 Technical Efficacy: Stage 3 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2017;46:1128-1136.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
authors.forename: Gabby B
authors.initials: GB
authors.lastname: Joseph
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
authors.forename: Charles E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: McCulloch
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
authors.forename: Michael C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Nevitt
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
authors.forename: Alexandra S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Gersing
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
authors.forename: Benedikt J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Schwaiger
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kretzschmar
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
authors.forename: Ursula
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Heilmeier
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
authors.forename: Thomas M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Link
mesh_terms: D002357:Cartilage Diseases / Q000150:complications* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000503:physiopathology; D002358:Cartilage, Articular / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000503:physiopathology; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007719:Knee Joint / Q000503:physiopathology; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging / Q000379:methods*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020370:Osteoarthritis, Knee / Q000150:complications* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000503:physiopathology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D013995:Time
keywords: cartilage MRI T2; cartilage morphology; knee; osteoarthritis