title: Statistical numeracy as a moderator of (pseudo)contingency effects on decision behavior.
abstract: Pseudocontingencies denote contingency estimates inferred from base rates rather than from cell frequencies. We examined the role of statistical numeracy for effects of such fallible but adaptive inferences on choice behavior. In Experiment 1, we provided information on single observations as well as on base rates and tracked participants' eye movements. In Experiment 2, we manipulated the availability of information on cell frequencies and base rates between conditions. Our results demonstrate that a focus on base rates rather than cell frequencies benefits pseudocontingency effects. Learners who are more proficient in (conditional) probability calculation prefer to rely on cell frequencies in order to judge contingencies, though, as was evident from their gaze behavior. If cell frequencies are available in summarized format, they may infer the true contingency between options and outcomes. Otherwise, however, even highly numerate learners are susceptible to pseudocontingency effects.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, School of Social Sciences, University of Mannheim, Schloss Ehrenhof Ost, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany. Electronic address: h.fleig@uni-mannheim.de.
authors.forename: Hanna
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Fleig
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, School of Social Sciences, University of Mannheim, Schloss Ehrenhof Ost, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany.
authors.forename: Thorsten
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Meiser
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, School of Social Sciences, University of Mannheim, Schloss Ehrenhof Ost, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany.
authors.forename: Florence
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ettlin
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Heidelberg University, Hauptstrasse 47-51, D-69117 Heidelberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rummel
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002755:Choice Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D011337:Probability Learning; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Base rates; Choice behavior; Contingency learning; Pseudocontingency; Statistical numeracy