title: Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.
abstract: Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Business Management and Social Sciences, Osnabrück University of Applied Sciences, Caprivistr. 30A, Osnabrück, 49076, Germany.|Center of Applied Biology, Department of Phytomedicine, Hochschule Geisenheim University, Von-Lade-Str. 1, Geisenheim, 65366, Germany.|Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, 12587, Germany.
authors.forename: Danijela
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7808-211X
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Markovic
authors.affiliation: Freshwater Biodiversity Unit IUCN Global Species Programme, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 ODL, UK.
authors.forename: Savrina F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Carrizo
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Business Management and Social Sciences, Osnabrück University of Applied Sciences, Caprivistr. 30A, Osnabrück, 49076, Germany.
authors.forename: Oskar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Kärcher
authors.affiliation: Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, Potsdam, 14476, Germany.
authors.forename: Ariane
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Walz
authors.affiliation: Oxford University Centre for the Environment, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK.
authors.forename: Jonathan N W
authors.initials: JNW
authors.lastname: David
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005618:Fresh Water
keywords: catchment connectivity; climate change; exposure; freshwater biodiversity; gap analysis; resilience; sensitivity; vulnerability