title: The impact of TV mass media campaigns on calls to a National Quitline and the use of prescribed nicotine replacement therapy: a structural vector autoregression analysis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate (1) the immediate impact; (2) the cumulative impact; and (3) the duration of impact of Scottish tobacco control TV mass media campaigns (MMCs) on smoking cessation activity, as measured by calls to Smokeline and the volume of prescribed nicotine replacement therapy (NRT).
  
  
  METHODS
  Multivariate time-series analysis using secondary data on population level measures of exposure to TV MMCs broadcast and smoking cessation activity between 2003 and 2012.
  
  
  METHODS
  Population of Scotland.
  
  
  METHODS
  Adult television viewer ratings (TVRs) as a measure of exposure to Scottish mass media campaigns in the adult population; monthly calls to NHS Smokeline; and the monthly volume of prescribed NRT as measured by gross ingredient costs (GIC).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Tobacco control TVRs were associated with an increase in calls to Smokeline but not an increase in the volume of prescribed NRT. A 1 standard deviation (SD) increase of 194 tobacco control TVRs led to an immediate and significant increase of 385.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 171.0, 600.7] calls to Smokeline (unadjusted model) within 1 month. When adjusted for seasonality the impact was reduced, but the increase in calls remained significant (226.3 calls, 95% CI = 37.3, 415.3). The cumulative impact on Smokeline calls remained significant for 6 months after broadcast in the unadjusted model and 18 months in the adjusted model. However, an increase in tobacco control TVRs of 194 failed to have a significant impact on the GIC of prescribed NRT in either the unadjusted (£1361.4, 95% CI = -£9138.0, £11860.9) or adjusted (£6297.1, 95% CI = -£2587.8, £15182.1) models.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Tobacco control television mass media campaigns broadcast in Scotland between 2003 and 2012 were effective in triggering calls to Smokeline, but did not increase significantly the use of prescribed nicotine replacement therapy by adult smokers. The impact on calls to Smokeline occurred immediately within 1 month of broadcast and was sustained for at least 6 months.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Health Sciences and Sport, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK.
authors.forename: Houra
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7049-3451
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Haghpanahan
authors.affiliation: Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: Daniel F
authors.initials: DF
authors.lastname: Mackay
authors.affiliation: Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: Jill P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Pell
authors.affiliation: School of Business and Economy, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK.
authors.forename: David
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4538-6328
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Bell
authors.affiliation: UK Centre for Tobacco and Alcohol Studies, Division of Epidemiology and Public Health University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
authors.forename: Tessa
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9560-1148
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Langley
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Health Sciences and Sport, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK.
authors.forename: Sally
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Haw
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D006293:Health Promotion / Q000379:methods*; D015277:Hotlines / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D015397:Program Evaluation / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012606:Scotland; D012907:Smoking / Q000628:therapy; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D013690:Television; D013995:Time; D061485:Tobacco Use Cessation Devices / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Mass media campaign; NRT; multivariate time-series analysis; smoking cessation; structural vector autoregressive model; tobacco control