title: Mortality, morbidity and refractoriness prediction in status epilepticus: Comparison of STESS and EMSE scores.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Status epilepticus (SE) is a neurological emergency, characterized by high short-term morbidity and mortality. We evaluated and compared two scores that have been developed to evaluate status epilepticus prognosis: STESS (Status Epilepticus Severity Score) and EMSE (Epidemiology based Mortality score in Status Epilepticus).
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective observational study was performed on consecutive patients with SE admitted between September 2013 and August 2015. Demographics, clinical variables, STESS-3 and -4, and EMSE-64 scores were calculated for each patient at baseline. SE drug response, 30-day mortality and morbidity were the outcomes measure.
  
  
  RESULTS
  162 episodes of SE were observed: 69% had a STESS ≥3; 34% had a STESS ≥4; 51% patients had an EMSE ≥64. The 30-days mortality was 31.5%: EMSE-64 showed greater negative predictive value (NPV) (97.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) (59.8%) and accuracy in the prediction of death than STESS-3 and STESS-4 (p<0.001). At 30 days, the clinical condition had deteriorated in 59% of the cases: EMSE-64 showed greater NPV (71.3%), PPV (87.8%) and accuracy than STESS-3 and STESS-4 (p<0.001) in the prediction of this outcome. In 23% of all cases, status epilepticus proved refractory to non-anaesthetic treatment. All three scales showed a high NPV (EMSE-64: 87.3%; STESS-4: 89.4%; STESS-3: 87.5%) but a low PPV (EMSE-64: 40.9%; STESS-4: 52.9%; STESS-3: 32%) for the prediction of refractoriness to first and second line drugs. This means that accuracy for the prediction of refractoriness was equally poor for all scales.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  EMSE-64 appears superior to STESS-3 and STESS-4 in the prediction of 30-days mortality and morbidity. All scales showed poor accuracy in the prediction of response to first and second line antiepileptic drugs. At present, there are no reliable scores capable of predicting treatment responsiveness.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical, Metabolic, and Neural Science, Center for Neuroscience and Neurotechnology, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; Unit of Neurology, OCSAE Hospital, AOU Modena, Italy.
authors.forename: Giada
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Giovannini
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical, Metabolic, and Neural Science, Center for Neuroscience and Neurotechnology, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; Unit of Neurology, OCSAE Hospital, AOU Modena, Italy.
authors.forename: Giulia
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Monti
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical, Metabolic, and Neural Science, Center for Neuroscience and Neurotechnology, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy.
authors.forename: Manuela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tondelli
authors.affiliation: Intensive Care Unit, OCSAE Hospital, AOU Modena, Italy.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Marudi
authors.affiliation: Unit of Neurology, OCSAE Hospital, AOU Modena, Italy.
authors.forename: Franco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Valzania
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Christian Doppler Klinik, Paracelsus Medical University, Salzburg, Austria; Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Salzburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Leitinger
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Christian Doppler Klinik, Paracelsus Medical University, Salzburg, Austria; Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Salzburg, Austria; Public Health, Health Services Research and HTA, University for Health Sciences, Medical Informatics and Technology, Hall i.T., Austria.
authors.forename: Eugen
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Trinka
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical, Metabolic, and Neural Science, Center for Neuroscience and Neurotechnology, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Modena, Italy; Unit of Neurology, OCSAE Hospital, AOU Modena, Italy. Electronic address: stefano.meletti@unimore.it.
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Meletti
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000927:Anticonvulsants / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000069279:Drug Resistant Epilepsy / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013226:Status Epilepticus / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality*; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000927:Anticonvulsants
keywords: EMSE; STESS; morbidity; mortality; refractoriness; status epilepticus