title: Validation of serological models for staging and prognostication of HCC in patients from a Japanese nationwide survey.
abstract: Two serology-based scoring models for prognostication of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the BALAD and BALAD-2 models, were applied to a Japanese cohort of a nationwide follow-up survey of HCC. The ability of these models to predict the progression of HCC and the deterioration of liver function and to assess prognosis was evaluated.
  
  
  
  BALAD and BALAD-2 scores were calculated in 24,029 patients from a cohort of Japanese nationwide survey based on the serum levels of five markers (bilirubin, albumin, lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive alpha-fetoprotein, alpha-fetoprotein, and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) measured at the time of HCC diagnosis. The associations of these scores with the progression of HCC and liver function and with survival rates were analyzed.
  
  
  
  There were good correlations between BALAD and BALAD-2 scores and the progression of HCC and Child-Pugh class. Both scores accurately categorized patients into risk groups with different survival rates. BALAD-2 showed superior discrimination of patient survival compared with the original BALAD.
  
  
  
  Serology-based scoring models for prognostication, especially the BALAD-2 model, were useful for staging and prognostication of survival in a cohort of Japanese patients with HCC from a nationwide survey.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, 4-86 Minaminokawa, Ogaki, Gifu, 503-8502, Japan. hmtoyoda@spice.ocn.ne.jp.
authors.forename: Hienori
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Toyoda
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, 4-86 Minaminokawa, Ogaki, Gifu, 503-8502, Japan.
authors.forename: Toshifumi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tada
authors.affiliation: Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
authors.forename: Philip J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Namiki
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Izumi
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, Shinshu University School of Medicine, Matsumoto, Japan.
authors.forename: Masumi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kadoya
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Kanazawa University Hospital, Kanazawa, Japan.
authors.forename: Shuichi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kaneko
authors.affiliation: Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery Division, Artificial Organ and Transplantation Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Norihiro
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kokudo
authors.affiliation: Division of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, Japan.
authors.forename: Yonson
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ku
authors.affiliation: Department of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery, Osaka City University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka, Japan.
authors.forename: Shoji
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kubo
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, 4-86 Minaminokawa, Ogaki, Gifu, 503-8502, Japan.
authors.forename: Takashi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kumada
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatics, School of Public Health, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Yutaka
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Matsuyama
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Kurume University Hospital, Kurume, Japan.
authors.forename: Osamu
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Nakashima
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Michiie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sakamoto
authors.affiliation: Department of Digestive Surgery, Nihon University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Tadatoshi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Takayama
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kinki University School of Medicine, Osaka, Japan.
authors.forename: Masatoshi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kudo
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor / Q000097:blood*; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D015996:Survival Rate
chemical_list: D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor
keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma; Liver function; Prognosis; Serological markers; Staging; Tumor progression