title: Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates.
abstract: West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in the continental United States; however, our ability to predict spillover transmission risk and human WNV cases remains limited. Here we develop a model depicting WNV transmission dynamics, which we optimize using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams, mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. The coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of historical WNV outbreaks in Long Island, New York for 2001-2014. Accurate forecasts of mosquito infection rates are generated before peak infection, and >65% of forecasts accurately predict seasonal total human WNV cases up to 9 weeks before the past reported case. This work provides the foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal outbreaks of WNV.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Nicholas B
authors.initials: NB
authors.lastname: DeFelice
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Eliza
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Little
authors.affiliation: Arthropod-Borne Disease Laboratory, Suffolk County Department of Health Services, Yaphank, New York 11980, USA.
authors.forename: Scott R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Campbell
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York 10032, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shaman
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D009033:Culicidae / Q000821:virology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D000072138:Mosquito Vectors / Q000821:virology*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012621:Seasons; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014901:West Nile Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D014902:West Nile virus / Q000472:pathogenicity*