title: The Prognostic Value of the iScore, the PLAN Score, and the ASTRAL Score in Acute Ischemic Stroke.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Disability and mortality represent the most relevant clinical outcomes after acute ischemic stroke. Recently, a number of prognostic models of acute ischemic stroke have been developed, but they have not been extensively validated. In this study, we evaluated the ability of 3 prognostic models including the iScore, the PLAN score, and the ASTRAL score in predicting clinical poor outcomes or mortality at 6 months in patients with acute ischemic stroke.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 323 patients were divided into a good-prognosis group and a poor-prognosis group based on the modified Rankin Scale. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and Pearson correlation coefficient.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We identified 96 (29.7%) patients with poor prognosis, including 21 who were dead. All 3 models showed good ability in predicting poor prognosis and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke (all ROC > .70). There was no difference between these 3 models in terms of sensitivity and accuracy (all P > .05).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results of this study suggest that the iScore, the PLAN score, and the ASTRAL score were equal in predicting 6-month poor prognosis and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Overall, there was a very high correlation between observed and expected outcomes at the risk score level.
authors.affiliation: The Graduate Student Training Base-AeroSpace Center Hospital of Liaoning Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Wei-Ying
authors.initials: WY
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: The Graduate Student Training Base-AeroSpace Center Hospital of Liaoning Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Wen-Wen
authors.initials: WW
authors.lastname: Sang
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Aerospace Center Hospital, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Di
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Jin
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Aerospace Center Hospital, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Shuang-Mei
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: The Graduate Student Training Base-AeroSpace Center Hospital of Liaoning Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.affiliation: The Graduate Student Training Base-AeroSpace Center Hospital of Liaoning Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Huan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Aerospace Center Hospital, Beijing, China. Electronic address: yangxu2011@163.com.
authors.forename: Xu
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Yang
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019540:Area Under Curve; D002545:Brain Ischemia / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: ASTRAL score; PLAN score; acute ischemic stroke; iScore; prognosis