title: A balanced solution to the cumulative threat of industrialized wind farm development on cinereous vultures (Aegypius monachus) in south-eastern Europe.
abstract: Wind farm development can combat climate change but may also threaten bird populations' persistence through collision with wind turbine blades if such development is improperly planned strategically and cumulatively. Such improper planning may often occur. Numerous wind farms are planned in a region hosting the only cinereous vulture population in south-eastern Europe. We combined range use modelling and a Collision Risk Model (CRM) to predict the cumulative collision mortality for cinereous vulture under all operating and proposed wind farms. Four different vulture avoidance rates were considered in the CRM. Cumulative collision mortality was expected to be eight to ten times greater in the future (proposed and operating wind farms) than currently (operating wind farms), equivalent to 44% of the current population (103 individuals) if all proposals are authorized (2744 MW). Even under the most optimistic scenario whereby authorized proposals will not collectively exceed the national target for wind harnessing in the study area (960 MW), cumulative collision mortality would still be high (17% of current population) and likely lead to population extinction. Under any wind farm proposal scenario, over 92% of expected deaths would occur in the core area of the population, further implying inadequate spatial planning and implementation of relevant European legislation with scant regard for governmental obligations to protect key species. On the basis of a sensitivity map we derive a spatially explicit solution that could meet the national target of wind harnessing with a minimum conservation cost of less than 1% population loss providing that the population mortality (5.2%) caused by the operating wind farms in the core area would be totally mitigated. Under other scenarios, the vulture population would probably be at serious risk of extinction. Our 'win-win' approach is appropriate to other potential conflicts where wind farms may cumulatively threaten wildlife populations.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental and Natural Resources Management, University of Patras, Agrinio, Aitoloakarnania, Greece.|Hellenic Republic, Decentralized Administration of Macedonia-Thrace, Directorate of Evros Region Forestry Service, Alexadroupolis, Evros, Greece.
authors.forename: Dimitris P
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2902-9678
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Vasilakis
authors.affiliation: Natural Research Ltd, Brathens Business Park, Banchory, Aberdeenshire, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: D Philip
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Whitfield
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental and Natural Resources Management, University of Patras, Agrinio, Aitoloakarnania, Greece.
authors.forename: Vassiliki
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kati
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D004736:Energy-Generating Resources; D005061:Europe, Eastern; D046093:Falconiformes; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014919:Wind