title: Land Use Regression Models for Ultrafine Particles in Six European Areas.
abstract: Long-term ultrafine particle (UFP) exposure estimates at a fine spatial scale are needed for epidemiological studies. Land use regression (LUR) models were developed and evaluated for six European areas based on repeated 30 min monitoring following standardized protocols. In each area; Basel (Switzerland), Heraklion (Greece), Amsterdam, Maastricht, and Utrecht ("The Netherlands"), Norwich (United Kingdom), Sabadell (Spain), and Turin (Italy), 160-240 sites were monitored to develop LUR models by supervised stepwise selection of GIS predictors. For each area and all areas combined, 10 models were developed in stratified random selections of 90% of sites. UFP prediction robustness was evaluated with the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) at 31-50 external sites per area. Models from Basel and The Netherlands were validated against repeated 24 h outdoor measurements. Structure and model R2of local models were similar within, but varied between areas (e.g., 38-43% Turin; 25-31% Sabadell). Robustness of predictions within areas was high (ICC 0.73-0.98). External validation R2was 53% in Basel and 50% in The Netherlands. Combined area models were robust (ICC 0.93-1.00) and explained UFP variation almost equally well as local models. In conclusion, robust UFP LUR models could be developed on short-term monitoring, explaining around 50% of spatial variance in longer-term measurements.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), division of Environmental Epidemiology (EEPI), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Erik
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-6079-0030
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: van Nunen
authors.affiliation: Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), division of Environmental Epidemiology (EEPI), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Roel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Vermeulen
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health (TPH) Institute, University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.|University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.|Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington , Seattle, Washington United States.
authors.forename: Ming-Yi
authors.initials: MY
authors.lastname: Tsai
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health (TPH) Institute, University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.|University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Nicole
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Probst-Hensch
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health (TPH) Institute, University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.|University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Alex
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ineichen
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health (TPH) Institute, University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.|University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Davey
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health (TPH) Institute, University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.|University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Medea
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Imboden
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health (TPH) Institute, University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.|University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Regina
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ducret-Stich
authors.affiliation: Human Genetics Foundation , Turin, Italy.
authors.forename: Alessio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Naccarati
authors.affiliation: Human Genetics Foundation , Turin, Italy.
authors.forename: Daniela
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Raffaele
authors.affiliation: Environmental Health Reference Centre, Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, Modena, Italy.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ranzi
authors.affiliation: ARPA Piemonte, Turin, Italy.
authors.forename: Cristiana
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ivaldi
authors.affiliation: Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Citta' della Salute e della Scienza University Hospital and Centre for Cancer Prevention, Turin, Italy.
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Galassi
authors.affiliation: ISGlobal, Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain.|Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) , Barcelona, Spain.|CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Nieuwenhuijsen
authors.affiliation: ISGlobal, Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain.|Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) , Barcelona, Spain.|CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Ariadna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Curto
authors.affiliation: ISGlobal, Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain.|Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) , Barcelona, Spain.|CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Donaire-Gonzalez
authors.affiliation: ISGlobal, Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain.|Department of Experimental and Health Sciences, Pompeu Fabra University (UPF) , Barcelona, Spain.|CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Marta
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cirach
authors.affiliation: Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), division of Environmental Epidemiology (EEPI), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands.|Swiss Tropical and Public Health (TPH) Institute, University of Basel , Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Leda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Chatzi
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Medicine, University of Crete , Heraklion, Greece.
authors.forename: Mariza
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kampouri
authors.affiliation: Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), division of Environmental Epidemiology (EEPI), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jelle
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Vlaanderen
authors.affiliation: Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), division of Environmental Epidemiology (EEPI), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Kees
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Meliefste
authors.affiliation: Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), division of Environmental Epidemiology (EEPI), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Daan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Buijtenhuijs
authors.affiliation: Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), division of Environmental Epidemiology (EEPI), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Bert
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Brunekreef
authors.affiliation: MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London , St Mary's Campus, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: David
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-5092-2762
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Morley
authors.affiliation: Human Genetics Foundation , Turin, Italy.|MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London , St Mary's Campus, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Vineis
authors.affiliation: MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London , St Mary's Campus, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gulliver
authors.affiliation: Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences (IRAS), division of Environmental Epidemiology (EEPI), Utrecht University , Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Gerard
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Hoek
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants; D000397:Air Pollution; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D052638:Particulate Matter
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter