title: Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management.
abstract: Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: colleen.webb@colostate.edu.
authors.forename: Colleen T
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Webb
authors.affiliation: Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ferrari
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; IFM, Theory and Modelling, Linköpings Universitet, Linköping, Sweden.
authors.forename: Tom
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Lindström
authors.affiliation: EpiCentre, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Tim
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Carpenter
authors.affiliation: Veterinary Public Health Institute, Vetsuisse Faculty, University of Berne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Salome
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dürr
authors.affiliation: Animal Health Policy Branch, Department of Agriculture, Canberra, Australia.
authors.forename: Graeme
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Garner
authors.affiliation: Institute of Fundamental Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Jewell
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stevenson
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, Australia.
authors.forename: Michael P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Ward
authors.affiliation: Central Veterinary Institute part of Wageningen UR (CVI), Lelystad, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Marleen
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Werkman
authors.affiliation: Central Veterinary Institute part of Wageningen UR (CVI), Lelystad, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jantien
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Backer
authors.affiliation: Warwick Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (WIDER) Group, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tildesley
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003657:Decision Making; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D019468:Disease Management; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008954:Models, Biological; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Disease management; Ensemble modelling; Foot and mouth disease; Policy; Structured decision-making