title: Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models.
abstract: The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States of America.
authors.forename: Shyam
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1337-5173
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ranganathan
authors.affiliation: Service de Chimie Physique et Biologie Théorique, Faculté des Sciences, Campus Plaine, C.P. 231, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Stamatios C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Nicolis
authors.affiliation: Mistra Centre for Sustainable Markets, Stockholm School of Economics, and Södertörn University, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Ranjula
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bali Swain
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: David J T
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Sumpter
mesh_terms: D017954:Africa South of the Sahara; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002648:Child; D046688:Child Mortality; D003906:Developing Countries; D005843:Geography; D014943:Global Health; D006040:Goals; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D009937:Organizational Objectives; D011336:Probability; D013269:Stochastic Processes