title: Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover.
abstract: Because the natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unclear and disease outbreaks in humans have occurred only sporadically over a large region, forecasting when and where Ebola spillovers are most likely to occur constitutes a continuing and urgent public health challenge. We developed a statistical modeling approach that associates 37 human or great ape Ebola spillovers since 1982 with spatiotemporally dynamic covariates including vegetative cover, human population size, and absolute and relative rainfall over 3 decades across sub-Saharan Africa. Our model (area under the curve 0.80 on test data) shows that spillover intensity is highest during transitions between wet and dry seasons; overall, high seasonal intensity occurs over much of tropical Africa; and spillover intensity is greatest at high (>1,000/km2) and very low (<100/km2) human population densities compared with intermediate levels. These results suggest strong seasonality in Ebola spillover from wild reservoirs and indicate particular times and regions for targeted surveillance.
authors.forename: John Paul
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.forename: Andrew W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Park
authors.forename: Andrew M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Kramer
authors.forename: Barbara A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Han
authors.forename: Laura W
authors.initials: LW
authors.lastname: Alexander
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Drake
mesh_terms: D017954:Africa South of the Sahara / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D018420:Ape Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D029043:Ebolavirus / Q000502:physiology*; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology*; D015186:Hominidae / Q000821:virology*; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012621:Seasons; D013997:Time Factors; D015047:Zoonoses
keywords: Ebola virus; disease outbreaks; early warning system; infectious diseases; modeling; seasonality; spatiotemporal forecasting; spillovers; viruses