title: Impact of in-Sewer Degradation of Pharmaceutical and Personal Care Products (PPCPs) Population Markers on a Population Model.
abstract: A key uncertainty of wastewater-based epidemiology is the size of the population which contributed to a given wastewater sample. We previously developed and validated a Bayesian inference model to estimate population size based on 14 population markers which: (1) are easily measured and (2) have mass loads which correlate with population size. However, the potential uncertainty of the model prediction due to in-sewer degradation of these markers was not evaluated. In this study, we addressed this gap by testing their stability under sewer conditions and assessed whether degradation impacts the model estimates. Five markers, which formed the core of our model, were stable in the sewers while the others were not. Our evaluation showed that the presence of unstable population markers in the model did not decrease the precision of the population estimates providing that stable markers such as acesulfame remained in the model. However, to achieve the minimum uncertainty in population estimates, we propose that the core markers to be included in population models for other sites should meet two additional criteria: (3) negligible degradation in wastewater to ensure the stability of chemicals during collection; and (4) < 10% in-sewer degradation could occur during the mean residence time of the sewer network.
authors.affiliation: Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Science (QAEHS), The University of Queensland , 39 Kessels Road, Coopers Plains, Queensland 4108, Australia.
authors.forename: Jake William
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9336-9656
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: O'Brien
authors.affiliation: Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Science (QAEHS), The University of Queensland , 39 Kessels Road, Coopers Plains, Queensland 4108, Australia.
authors.forename: Andrew Phillip William
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Banks
authors.affiliation: Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Science (QAEHS), The University of Queensland , 39 Kessels Road, Coopers Plains, Queensland 4108, Australia.
authors.forename: Andrew Joseph
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5835-4483
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Novic
authors.affiliation: Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Science (QAEHS), The University of Queensland , 39 Kessels Road, Coopers Plains, Queensland 4108, Australia.
authors.forename: Jochen F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Mueller
authors.affiliation: Advanced Water Management Centre (AWMC), The University of Queensland , St. Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Guangming
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology , CH 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ort
authors.affiliation: Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Science (QAEHS), The University of Queensland , 39 Kessels Road, Coopers Plains, Queensland 4108, Australia.
authors.forename: Geoff
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Eaglesham
authors.affiliation: Advanced Water Management Centre (AWMC), The University of Queensland , St. Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Zhiguo
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Yuan
authors.affiliation: Queensland Alliance for Environmental Health Science (QAEHS), The University of Queensland , 39 Kessels Road, Coopers Plains, Queensland 4108, Australia.|International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
authors.forename: Phong K
authors.initials: PK
authors.lastname: Thai
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations; D012722:Sewage; D062065:Wastewater
chemical_list: D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations; D012722:Sewage; D062065:Wastewater