title: Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.
abstract: As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.
authors.affiliation: Department of Crop Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America.
authors.forename: Bradley J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Tomasek
authors.affiliation: United States Department of Agriculture/Agricultural Research Service, Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America.
authors.forename: Martin M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: United States Department of Agriculture/Agricultural Research Service, Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America.
authors.forename: Adam S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Davis
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods; D057231:Climate Change; D055864:Droughts; D007087:Illinois; D012621:Seasons; D012987:Soil / Q000737:chemistry; D014887:Weather
chemical_list: D012987:Soil