title: Can chance cause cancer? A causal consideration.
abstract: The role of randomness, environment and genetics in cancer development is debated. We approach the discussion by using the potential outcomes framework for causal inference. By briefly considering the underlying assumptions, we suggest that the antagonising views arise due to estimation of substantially different causal effects. These effects may be hard to interpret, and the results cannot be immediately compared. Indeed, it is not clear whether it is possible to define a causal effect of chance at all.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Norway; Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: m.j.stensrud@medisin.uio.no.
authors.forename: Mats Julius
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Stensrud
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Norway; Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, and Harvard Medical School, Boston, USA.
authors.forename: Susanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Strohmaier
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Morten
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Valberg
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Odd Olai
authors.initials: OO
authors.lastname: Aalen
mesh_terms: D015984:Causality; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D009154:Mutation / Q000235:genetics; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000209:etiology*; D011336:Probability; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: Causality; Chance; Environment; Epidemiology; Interventions; Potential outcomes; Statistics