title: Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.
abstract: A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Program in Climate and Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Kai
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA.
authors.forename: Radley M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Horton
authors.affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA.
authors.forename: Daniel A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Bader
authors.affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA.
authors.forename: Corey
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lesk
authors.affiliation: Asian Demographic Research Institute, School of Sociology and Political Science Shanghai University, Shanghai, China; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
authors.forename: Leiwen
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jiang
authors.affiliation: CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, Baruch College, New York, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Bryan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.affiliation: Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Nanjing, China.
authors.forename: Lian
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Nanjing, China.
authors.forename: Xiaodong
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China. Electronic address: jbi@nju.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bi
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Program in Climate and Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. Electronic address: plk3@cumc.columbia.edu.
authors.forename: Patrick L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Kinney
mesh_terms: D000064:Acclimatization; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D057231:Climate Change; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D011634:Public Health; D012140:Respiratory Tract Diseases / Q000401:mortality*
keywords: Climate change; Heat; Mortality; Projection