title: Meteorological conditions and land cover as predictors for the prevalence of Bluetongue virus in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of Mainland China.
abstract: Bluetongue is a major disease of economic importance that affects ruminants worldwide. It is transmitted by species of Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is one of the main pastoral areas for farmed sheep in Mainland China and, because of its large area, represents an ideal candidate region for the study of Bluetongue virus (BTV) distribution and prevalence characteristics. The present study conducted a detailed investigation into the spatial patterns of BTV transmission in sheep in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and assessed the inter-relationships between meteorological factors, land cover and the transmission of the virus was conducted. Reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used for the determination of BTV infection in the surveyed animals. Between June 2013 and February 2015, 6199 sheep were subjected to virus detection and 2199 sheep (35.47%) were determined to be positive for BTV. Subsequently, a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to investigate the relationship between land cover, meteorological factors and the prevalence of BTV infection. Jackknife analysis revealed that the mean monthly temperature, rainfall and average wind speed were associated with the occurrence of BTV infection and that BTV infection positivity was significantly higher among animals from districts with a high percentage of grassland and forest area. Our findings indicate that meteorological factors and land cover may be important variables affecting transmission of BTV and should be taken into account in the development of future surveillance programmes for BTV.
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, PR China.
authors.forename: Xiang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, PR China.
authors.forename: Hongyu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Qin
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, PR China.
authors.forename: Jianhua
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, PR China. Electronic address: hbwang1940@163.com.
authors.forename: Hongbin
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D002519:Ceratopogonidae / Q000821:virology; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology; D008377:Maps as Topic; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D015995:Prevalence; D012372:ROC Curve; D011891:Rain; D020133:Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction / Q000662:veterinary; D012307:Risk Factors; D012756:Sheep; D013696:Temperature
keywords: Bluetongue virus; Land cover；Risk analysis; MaxEnt; Meteorological factors; Prediction