title: Local Control Strategy: Simple Analyses of Air Pollution Data Can Reveal Heterogeneity in Longevity Outcomes.
abstract: Claims from observational studies that use traditional model specification searches often fail to replicate, partially because the available data tend to be biased. There is an urgent need for an alternative statistical analysis strategy, that is not only simple and easily understood but also is more likely to give reliable insights when the available data have not been designed and balanced. The alternative strategy known as local control first generates local, nonparametric effect-size estimates (fair treatment comparisons) and only then asks whether the observed variation in these local estimates can be predicted from potential confounding factors. Here, we illustrate application of local control to a historical air pollution data set describing a "natural experiment" initiated by the federal Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970. Our reanalysis reveals subgroup heterogeneity in the effects of air quality regulation on elderly longevity (one size does not fit all), and we show that this heterogeneity is largely explained by socioeconomic and environmental confounders other than air quality.
authors.affiliation: Risk Benefit Statistics, Bella Vista, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Robert L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Obenchain
authors.affiliation: Raleigh, NC, USA.
authors.forename: S Stanley
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Young
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis*; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D004777:Environment; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D008136:Longevity; D015233:Models, Statistical; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis; D011336:Probability; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012923:Social Class; D012984:Software; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter
keywords: Heterogeneous treatment effects; local control; observational study; researcher incentives