title: Bayesian inference for kinetic models of biotransformation using a generalized rate equation.
abstract: Selecting proper rate equations for the kinetic models is essential to quantify biotransformation processes in the environment. Bayesian model selection method can be used to evaluate the candidate models. However, comparisons of all plausible models can result in high computational cost, while limiting the number of candidate models may lead to biased results. In this work, we developed an integrated Bayesian method to simultaneously perform model selection and parameter estimation by using a generalized rate equation. In the approach, the model hypotheses were represented by discrete parameters and the rate constants were represented by continuous parameters. Then Bayesian inference of the kinetic models was solved by implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation for parameter estimation with the mixed (i.e., discrete and continuous) priors. The validity of this approach was illustrated through a synthetic case and a nitrogen transformation experimental study. It showed that our method can successfully identify the plausible models and parameters, as well as uncertainties therein. Thus this method can provide a powerful tool to reveal more insightful information for the complex biotransformation processes.
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Zhejiang University, 310058 Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Shanshan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ying
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Zhejiang University, 310058 Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Jiangjiang
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Zhejiang University, 310058 Hangzhou, China. Electronic address: lingzao@zju.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Lingzao
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Zhejiang University, 310058 Hangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Jiachun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.affiliation: College of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Zhejiang University, 310058 Hangzhou, China; Department of Environmental Science, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, United States.
authors.forename: Laosheng
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wu
keywords: Bayesian model selection; N transformation; Parameter estimation; Rate equation