title: Taking climate, land use, and social economy into estimation of carbon budget in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.
abstract: Carbon sequestration is an indispensable ecosystem service provided by soil and vegetation, so mapping and valuing the carbon budget by considering both ecological and social factors is an important trend in evaluating ecosystem services. In this work, we established multiple scenarios to evaluate the impacts of land use change, population growth, carbon emission per capita, and carbon markets on carbon budget. We quantified carbon sinks (aboveground and belowground) under different scenarios, using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model and an improved carbon cycle process model, and studied carbon sources caused by human activities by analyzing the spatial distribution of human population and carbon emission per capita. We also assessed the net present value (NPV) for carbon budgets under different carbon price and discount rate scenarios using NPV model. Our results indicate that the carbon budget of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region is surplus: Carbon sinks range from 1.50 × 1010to 1.54 × 1010t, while carbon sources caused by human activities range from 2.76 × 105to 7.60 × 105t. And the NPV for carbon deficits range from 3.20 × 1011RMB to 1.52 × 1012RMB. From the perspective of ecological management, deforestation, urban sprawl, population growth, and excessive carbon consumption are considered as the main challenges in balancing carbon sources and sinks. Levying carbon tax would be a considerable option when decision maker develops carbon emission reduction policies. Our results provide a scientific and credible reference for harmonious and sustainable development in the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region of China.
authors.affiliation: College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710000, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Ting
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710000, People's Republic of China. lijing@snnu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8662-8912
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: College of Geomatics, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an, 710054, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Zixiang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710000, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Yanze
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest A & F University, Yangling, 712100, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xiaonan
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, Shandong, 266071, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Keyu
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Qin
authors.affiliation: College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710000, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jingya
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D002244:Carbon; D057965:Carbon Sequestration; D002681:China; D002980:Climate; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D006801:Humans
chemical_list: D002244:Carbon
keywords: Carbon budget; Scenario; The Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region