title: Hierarchical Bayesian Logistic Regression to forecast metabolic control in type 2 DM patients.
abstract: In this work we present our efforts in building a model able to forecast patients' changes in clinical conditions when repeated measurements are available. In this case the available risk calculators are typically not applicable. We propose a Hierarchical Bayesian Logistic Regression model, which allows taking into account individual and population variability in model parameters estimate. The model is used to predict metabolic control and its variation in type 2 diabetes mellitus. In particular we have analyzed a population of more than 1000 Italian type 2 diabetic patients, collected within the European project Mosaic. The results obtained in terms of Matthews Correlation Coefficient are significantly better than the ones gathered with standard logistic regression model, based on data pooling.
authors.affiliation: University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Arianna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dagliati
authors.affiliation: IRCCS Fondazione S. Maugeri, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Malovini
authors.affiliation: IRCCS Fondazione S. Maugeri, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Pasquale
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Decata
authors.affiliation: IRCCS Fondazione S. Maugeri, Pavia, Italy; University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Giulia
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Cogni
authors.affiliation: IRCCS Fondazione S. Maugeri, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Marsida
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Teliti
authors.affiliation: University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Lucia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sacchi
authors.affiliation: ATS Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Carlo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cerra
authors.affiliation: IRCCS Fondazione S. Maugeri, Pavia, Italy; University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Luca
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Chiovato
authors.affiliation: University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy; IRCCS Fondazione S. Maugeri, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Riccardo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bellazzi
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D066264:Datasets as Topic; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications*; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D016015:Logistic Models; D008954:Models, Biological; D012306:Risk
chemical_list: D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin