title: Simple Risk Score for Prediction of Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma within the Milan Criteria after Orthotopic Liver Transplantation.
abstract: Ten to twenty percent of the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients fulfilling the Milan criteria (MC) recurred within three years after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). We therefore utilize a training cohort to develop an improved prognostic model for predicting the recurrence in these patients. By univariate and multivariate analysis, AFP level [cut-off value: 321 ng/mL, area under the curve (AUC) = 0.724, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.604-0.843, P < 0.001] and cytokeratin-19 (CK19) and glypican-3 (GPC3) expression pattern from nine putative prognostic factors were entered in risk factor scoring model to conjecture the tumor recurrence. In the training cohort, the AUC value of the model was 0.767 (95% CI = 0.645-0.890, P < 0.001), which was the highest among all the elements. The model's performance was then assessed using a validation cohort. In the validation cohort, the AUC value of the model was 0.843 (95% CI = 0.720-0.966, P < 0.001) which was higher than any other elements. The results indicated that model had high performance with good discrimination ability and significantly improved the predictive capacity for the recurrence of HCC patients within MC after OLT.
authors.affiliation: Clinical-Pathology Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jiliang
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: General Surgical Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jushan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: General Surgical Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Ruidong
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.affiliation: College of Life Science, Sichuan University, Sichuan, China.
authors.forename: Dezhao
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: Clinical-Pathology Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Lu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.affiliation: Clinical-Pathology Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Medical Record Statistics Management Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Dayu
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Bu
authors.affiliation: Medical Record Statistics Management Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Chenlei
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Clinical-Pathology Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yuyan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Clinical-Pathology Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Lianghao
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Si
authors.affiliation: Clinical-Pathology Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Yuhan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Clinical-Pathology Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Ziwei
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Liang
authors.affiliation: Clinical-Pathology Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jianing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Clinical-Pathology Center, Bejing You-An Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Tianjun
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Wu
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D016031:Liver Transplantation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009364:Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / Q000401:mortality*; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate