title: Integrated Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Ischemic Stroke and Thromboembolism in Atrial Fibrillation.
abstract: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac rhythm disorder, which increases the risk of ischemic stroke and other thromboembolism (TE). Accurate prediction of TE is highly valuable for early intervention to AF patients. However, the prediction performance of previous TE risk models for AF is not satisfactory. In this study, we used integrated machine learning and data mining approaches to build 2-year TE prediction models for AF from Chinese Atrial Fibrillation Registry data. We first performed data cleansing and imputation on the raw data to generate available dataset. Then a series of feature construction and selection methods were used to identify predictive risk factors, based on which supervised learning methods were applied to build the prediction models. The experimental results show that our approach can achieve higher prediction performance (AUC: 0.71~0.74) than previous TE prediction models for AF (AUC: 0.66~0.69), and identify new potential risk factors as well.
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - China, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Xiang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - China, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Haifeng
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Beijing Anzhen Hospital, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Du
authors.affiliation: IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, New York, USA.
authors.forename: Ping
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - China, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Gang
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - China, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Guotong
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Xie
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - China, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Shijing
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.affiliation: Pfizer Investment Co. Ltd., Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Meilin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Pfizer Investment Co. Ltd., Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Xiaoping
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Xie
mesh_terms: D019540:Area Under Curve; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000150:complications*; D002545:Brain Ischemia / Q000209:etiology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D000069550:Machine Learning; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000209:etiology*; D013923:Thromboembolism / Q000209:etiology*