title: Predicting evolution in response to climate change: the example of sprouting probability in three dormancy-prone orchid species.
abstract: Although many ecological properties of species respond to climate change, their evolutionary responses are poorly understood. Here, we use data from long-term demographic studies to predict evolutionary responses of three herbaceous perennial orchid species,Cypripedium parviflorum,C. candidumandOphrys sphegodes, to predicted climate changes in the habitats they occupy. We focus on the evolution of sprouting probability, because all three species exhibit long-term vegetative dormancy, i.e. individual plants may not emerge above-ground, potentially for several consecutive years. The drivers of all major vital rates for populations of the species were analysed with general linear mixed models (GLMMs). High-dimensionality function-based matrix projection models were then developed to serve as core elements of deterministic and stochastic adaptive dynamics models used to analyse the adaptive context of sprouting in all populations. We then used regional climate forecasts, derived from high-resolution general atmospheric circulation models, of increased mean annual temperatures and spring precipitation at the occupied sites, to predict evolutionary trends in sprouting. The models predicted thatC. parviflorumandO. sphegodeswill evolve higher and lower probabilities of sprouting, respectively, by the end of the twenty-first century, whereas, after considerable variation, the probability of sprouting inC. candidumwill return to its current level. These trends appear to be driven by relationships between mortality and size: inC. parviflorumandC. candidum, mortality is negatively related to size in the current year but positively related to growth since the previous year, whereas inO. sphegodes, mortality is positively related to size.
authors.affiliation: Organization for Programs on Environmental Sciences , University of Tokyo , Meguro-ku, Tokyo , Japan.
authors.forename: Richard P
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-5234-3131
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Shefferson
authors.affiliation: Meteorological Research Institute , Tsukuba , Japan.
authors.forename: Ryo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mizuta
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences , University of Sussex , Falmer, Brighton, Sussex BN1 9QG UK.
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Hutchings
keywords: Orchidaceae; adaptive dynamics; climate change; demography; evolutionarily stable strategy; game theory