title: The impact of a federal cigarette minimum pack price policy on cigarette use in the USA.
abstract: Increasing cigarette prices reduce cigarette use. The US Food and Drug Administration has the authority to regulate the sale and promotion-and therefore the price-of tobacco products.
  
  
  
  To examine the potential effect of federal minimum price regulation on the sales of cigarettes in the USA.
  
  
  
  We used yearly state-level data from the Tax Burden on Tobacco and other sources to model per capita cigarette sales as a function of price. We used the fitted model to compare the status quo sales with counterfactual scenarios in which a federal minimum price was set. The minimum price scenarios ranged from $0 to $12.
  
  
  
  The estimated price effect in our model was comparable with that found in the literature. Our counterfactual analyses suggested that the impact of a minimum price requirement could range from a minimal effect at the $4 level to a reduction of 5.7 billion packs sold per year and 10 million smokers at the $10 level.
  
  
  
  A federal minimum price policy has the potential to greatly benefit tobacco control and public health by uniformly increasing the price of cigarettes and by eliminating many price-reducing strategies currently available to both sellers and consumers.
authors.affiliation: College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
authors.forename: Nathan J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Doogan
authors.affiliation: College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
authors.forename: Mary Ellen
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Wewers
authors.affiliation: College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
authors.forename: Micah
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Berman
mesh_terms: D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics*; D033161:Government Regulation; D006801:Humans; D018803:Models, Economic; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016540:Smoking Cessation / Q000379:methods*; D062789:Tobacco Products / Q000191:economics*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Advertising and Promotion; Economics; Price