title: Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health.
abstract: Based on the panel data of 306 cities in China from 2002 to 2012, this paper investigates China's road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) models. The results indicate that own-priceelasticitiesfordifferentvehiclecategoriesrangefrom-1.215to-0.459(byAIDS)andfrom -1.399 to-0.369 (by QUAIDS). Then, this study estimates the air pollution emissions (CO, NOx and PM2.5) and public health damages from the road transport sector under different oil price shocks. Compared to the base year 2012, results show that a fuel price rise of 30% can avoid 1,147,270 tonnes of pollution emissions; besides, premature deaths and economic losses decrease by 16,149 cases and 13,817.953 million RMB yuan respectively; while based on the non-linear health effect model, the premature deaths and total economic losses decrease by 15,534 and 13,291.4 million RMB yuan respectively. Our study combines the fuel demand and health evaluation models and is the ﬁrst attempt to address how oil price changes inﬂuence public health through the fuel demand system in China. Given its serious air pollution emission and substantial health damages, this paper provides important insights for policy makers in terms of persistent increasing in fuel consumption and the associated health and economic losses.
authors.affiliation: School of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China. lyhe@amss.ac.cn.|Institute of Resource, Environment and Sustainable Development Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China. lyhe@amss.ac.cn.|School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China. lyhe@amss.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Ling-Yun
authors.initials: LY
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Huaxia Bank and Renmin University of China Joint Postdoctoral Research Station, Beijing 100005, China. yangsheng11111@163.com.
authors.forename: Sheng
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: School of Economics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China. karenchangchina@163.com.
authors.forename: Dongfeng
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Chang
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis* / Q000517:prevention & control; D002681:China; D002947:Cities; D003132:Commerce; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010578:Petroleum / Q000191:economics*; D011634:Public Health; D014186:Transportation / Q000191:economics*; D035501:Uncertainty; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D010578:Petroleum; D001335:Vehicle Emissions
keywords: air pollution emissions; fuel demand price elasticities; oil prices; pollution emission elasticities; public health; road transport