title: Cardiovascular risk factors are major determinants of thrombotic risk in patients with the lupus anticoagulant.
abstract: Patients with the lupus anticoagulant (LA) are at an increased risk of thrombotic events, which in turn increase the risk of death. Understanding the determinants of thrombotic risk in patients with LA may pave the way towards targeted thromboprophylaxis. In the Vienna Lupus Anticoagulant and Thrombosis Study (LATS), we systematically evaluate risk factors for thrombotic events in patients with LA.
  
  
  
  We followed 150 patients (mean age: 41.3 years, female gender: n = 122 (81.3%), history of thrombosis or pregnancy complications: n = 111 (74.0%)), who tested repeatedly positive for LA until development of thrombosis, death, or censoring. The primary endpoint was a composite of arterial or venous thrombotic events (TEs).
  
  
  
  During a median follow-up of 9.5 years (range: 12 days-13.6 years) and 1076 person-years, 32 TEs occurred (arterial: n = 16, venous: n = 16; cumulative 10-year TE incidence: 24.3%). A prolonged lupus-sensitive activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT-LA) (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 2.31, 95% CI: 1.07--5.02), diabetes (adjusted SHR = 4.39, 95% CI: 1.42-13.57), and active smoking (adjusted SHR = 2.31, 95% CI: 1.14-5.02) emerged as independent risk factors of both arterial and venous thrombotic risk. A risk model that includes a prolonged lupus-sensitive aPTT, smoking, and diabetes enabled stratification of LA patients into subgroups with a low, intermediate, and high risk of thrombosis (5-year TE risk of 9.7% (n = 77), 30.9% (n = 51), and 56.8% (n = 22).
  
  
  
  Long-term thrombotic risk in patients with LA is clustered within subjects harboring typical cardiovascular risk factors in addition to a prolonged lupus-sensitive aPTT, whereas patients with none of these risk factors represent a large subgroup with a low risk of thrombosis.
authors.affiliation: Clinical Division of Haematology and Haemostaseology, Department of Medicine I, Comprehensive Cancer Center Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, Vienna, 1090, Austria.|Division of Oncology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Florian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Posch
authors.affiliation: Clinical Division of Haematology and Haemostaseology, Department of Medicine I, Comprehensive Cancer Center Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, Vienna, 1090, Austria.
authors.forename: Johanna
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gebhart
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Jacob H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Rand
authors.affiliation: Clinical Division of Haematology and Haemostaseology, Department of Medicine I, Comprehensive Cancer Center Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, Vienna, 1090, Austria.
authors.forename: Silvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Koder
authors.affiliation: Department of Laboratory Medicine, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Quehenberger
authors.affiliation: Division of Cardiac, Thoracic, and Vascular Sciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy.
authors.forename: Vittorio
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Pengo
authors.affiliation: Clinical Division of Haematology and Haemostaseology, Department of Medicine I, Comprehensive Cancer Center Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, Vienna, 1090, Austria.
authors.forename: Cihan
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ay
authors.affiliation: Clinical Division of Haematology and Haemostaseology, Department of Medicine I, Comprehensive Cancer Center Vienna, Medical University of Vienna, Währinger Gürtel 18-20, Vienna, 1090, Austria. ingrid.pabinger@meduniwien.ac.at.
authors.forename: Ingrid
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Pabinger
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000150:complications; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016682:Lupus Coagulation Inhibitor / Q000009:adverse effects*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D013927:Thrombosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D016682:Lupus Coagulation Inhibitor
keywords: Antiphospholipid antibody syndrome; Cardiovascular risk factors; Lupus anticoagulant; Risk stratification model; Second hit; Smoking; Thrombotic risk; aPTT; diabetes