title: The potential global distribution ofChilo partellus, including consideration of irrigation and cropping patterns.
abstract: Chilo partellusis a major crop pest in Asia and Africa, and has recently spread to the Mediterranean region. Knowledge of its potential distribution can inform biosecurity policies aimed at limiting its further spread and efforts to reduce its impact in areas that are already invaded. Three models of the potential distribution of this insect have been published, each with significant shortcomings. We re-parameterized an existing CLIMEX model to address some parameter inconsistencies and to improve the fit to the known distribution ofC. partellus. The resulting model fits the known distribution better than previous models, highlights additional risks in equatorial regions and reduces modelled risks in wet and extremely dry regions. We bring new insights into the role of irrigation in the potential spread of this invasive insect and compare its potential distribution with the present known distribution of its hosts. We also distinguish regions that are suitable for supporting persistent populations from those that may be at risk from ephemeral populations during favourable seasons. We present one of the first demonstrations of a new capability in CLIMEX to automatically estimate parameter sensitivity and model uncertainty. Our CLIMEX model highlights the substantial invasion risk posed byC. partellusto cropping regions in the Americas, Australia, China, Europe, New Zealand and West Africa. Its broad host range and reported impacts suggest that it should be a pest of significant concern to biosecurity agencies in these presently uninvaded regions.
authors.affiliation: HarvestChoice, InSTePP, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108 USA.|CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia.
authors.forename: Tania
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8984-5661
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yonow
authors.affiliation: HarvestChoice, InSTePP, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108 USA.|CSIRO, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2600 Australia.
authors.forename: Darren J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Kriticos
authors.affiliation: CSIRO, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913 Australia.
authors.forename: Noboru
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ota
authors.affiliation: Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, 2520 South Africa.
authors.forename: Johnnie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Van Den Berg
authors.affiliation: Department of Entomology, Harvest Choice, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108 USA.
authors.forename: William D
authors.initials: WD
authors.lastname: Hutchison
keywords: CLIMEX; Maize; Niche modelling; Pest risk analysis; Sorghum; Spotted stem borer