title: Improving risk prediction for depression via Elastic Net regression - Results from Korea National Health Insurance Services Data.
abstract: Depression, despite its high prevalence, remains severely under-diagnosed across the healthcare system. This demands the development of data-driven approaches that can help screen patients who are at a high risk of depression. In this work, we develop depression risk prediction models that incorporate disease co-morbidities using logistic regression with Elastic Net. Using data from the one million twelve-year longitudinal cohort from Korean National Health Insurance Services (KNHIS), our model achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) of 0.7818, compared to a traditional logistic regression model without co-morbidity analysis (AUC of 0.6992). We also showed co-morbidity adjusted Odds Ratios (ORs), which may be more accurate independent estimate of each predictor variable. In conclusion, inclusion of co-morbidity analysis improved the performance of depression risk prediction models.
authors.affiliation: Department of Healthcare Policy & Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Min-Hyung
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Healthcare Policy & Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Samprit
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Banerjee
authors.affiliation: Department of Family Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Sang Min
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Park
authors.affiliation: Department of Healthcare Policy & Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Jyotishman
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pathak
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D019540:Area Under Curve; D015897:Comorbidity; D003863:Depression / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009313:National Health Programs; D015995:Prevalence; D012372:ROC Curve; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D012306:Risk
keywords: Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse (CCW) Condition Algorithms; Co-morbidity; Depression; Elastic Net; Korea National Health Insurance Services Longitudinal Cohort Data; Least Absolute Shrinkage And Selection Operator (LASSO); Logistic Regression; Risk Prediction Model