title: Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.
abstract: This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
authors.forename: Cindy Q
authors.initials: CQ
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
authors.forename: Yi-Fei
authors.initials: YF
authors.lastname: Dong
authors.affiliation: Botanic Institute of Barcelona (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), Passeig del Migdia s/n, Barcelona 08038, Spain.
authors.forename: Sonia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Herrando-Moraira
authors.affiliation: Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Matsunosato 1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-8687, Japan.
authors.forename: Tetsuya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Matsui
authors.affiliation: Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Matsunosato 1, Tsukuba-shi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-8687, Japan.
authors.forename: Haruka
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ohashi
authors.affiliation: Kunming Institute of Forestry Exploration and Design, the State Forestry Administration of China, Kunming 650216, China.
authors.forename: Long-Yuan
authors.initials: LY
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Kansai Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Momoyama, Kyoto, 612-0855 Japan.
authors.forename: Katsuhiro
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nakao
authors.affiliation: Tokyo University of Agriculture,1-1-1 Sakuragaoka, Setagaya-ku, Tokyo 156-8502, Japan.
authors.forename: Nobuyuki
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Tanaka
authors.affiliation: Tokyo University of Information Sciences, 4-1 Onaridai Wakaba-ku, Chiba 265-8501, Japan.
authors.forename: Mizuki
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tomita
authors.affiliation: Yunnan Academy of Forestry, Kunming 650204, China.
authors.forename: Xiao-Shuang
authors.initials: XS
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
authors.forename: Hai-Zhong
authors.initials: HZ
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
authors.forename: Ming-Chun
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Peng
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization and Ecological Restoration Biodiversity Conservation, Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China.
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
authors.forename: Ruo-Han
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
authors.forename: Wang-Jun
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Center for Mountain Ecosystem Studies, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201, China.
authors.forename: Kai
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Science and Technology, Kunming University, Kunming 650214, China.
authors.forename: Xiuli
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Hou
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ecology and Geobotany, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China.
authors.forename: Zhi-Ying
authors.initials: ZY
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Botanic Institute of Barcelona (IBB-CSIC-ICUB), Passeig del Migdia s/n, Barcelona 08038, Spain.
authors.forename: Jordi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: López-Pujol
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends; D017753:Ecosystem; D056727:Endangered Species; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D030701:Nyssaceae / Q000254:growth & development*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D000068236:Refugium; D014197:Trees / Q000254:growth & development*