title: Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection.
abstract: Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptation-natural selection-are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, USA. amsiepie@uark.edu.
authors.forename: Adam M
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9864-743X
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Siepielski
authors.affiliation: School of Biology, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.
authors.forename: Michael B
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-6209-0177
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Morrissey
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Mathieu
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7053-3767
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Buoro
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California-Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Stephanie M
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-3055-6483
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Carlson
authors.affiliation: Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: Christina M
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7069-9572
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Caruso
authors.affiliation: Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.|Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, QLD, Australia.
authors.forename: Sonya M
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-3092-3864
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Clegg
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Tim
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9371-9003
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Coulson
authors.affiliation: Department of Environment and Agriculture, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia.
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: DiBattista
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.|Redpath Museum and Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
authors.forename: Kiyoko M
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-3666-0700
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Gotanda
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Clinton D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Francis
authors.affiliation: Department of Evolution and Ecology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Joe
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hereford
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Joel G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Kingsolver
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Kate E
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-3872-6969
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Augustine
authors.affiliation: Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
authors.forename: Loeske E B
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-8588-1123
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Kruuk
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA.
authors.forename: Ryan A
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7448-5907
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.affiliation: Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors.forename: Ben C
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-5240-7828
authors.initials: BC
authors.lastname: Sheldon
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Nina
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9868-3449
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Sletvold
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
authors.forename: Erik I
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9006-016X
authors.initials: EI
authors.lastname: Svensson
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, USA.
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Wade
authors.affiliation: School of Life Sciences, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
authors.forename: Andrew D C
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-2102-6130
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: MacColl
mesh_terms: D000222:Adaptation, Physiological / Q000235:genetics*; D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D007448:Invertebrates / Q000235:genetics; D010944:Plants / Q000235:genetics; D011891:Rain; D065947:Rainforest; D012641:Selection, Genetic; D014714:Vertebrates / Q000235:genetics