title: A Bayesian bird's eye view of 'Replications of important results in social psychology'.
abstract: We applied three Bayesian methods to reanalyse the preregistered contributions to theSocial Psychologyspecial issue 'Replications of Important Results in Social Psychology' (Nosek & Lakens. 2014 Registered reports: a method to increase the credibility of published results.Soc. Psychol.45, 137-141. (doi:10.1027/1864-9335/a000192)). First, individual-experiment Bayesian parameter estimation revealed that for directed effect size measures, only three out of 44 central 95% credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. For undirected effect size measures, only four out of 59 credible intervals contained values greater than [Formula: see text] (10% of variance explained) and only 19 intervals contained values larger than [Formula: see text]. Second, a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis for all 38t-tests showed that only one out of the 38 hierarchically estimated credible intervals did not overlap with zero and fell in the expected direction. Third, a Bayes factor hypothesis test was used to quantify the evidence for the null hypothesis against a default one-sided alternative. Only seven out of 60 Bayes factors indicated non-anecdotal support in favour of the alternative hypothesis ([Formula: see text]), whereas 51 Bayes factors indicated at least some support for the null hypothesis. We hope that future analyses of replication success will embrace a more inclusive statistical approach by adopting a wider range of complementary techniques.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology , University of Amsterdam , Amsterdam , The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Maarten
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5309-7502
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Marsman
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology , Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München , Munchen , Germany.
authors.forename: Felix D
authors.initials: FD
authors.lastname: Schönbrodt
authors.affiliation: School of Psychology , Cardiff University , Cardiff , UK.
authors.forename: Richard D
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9220-3179
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Morey
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics , Columbia University , New York , NY , USA.
authors.forename: Yuling
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yao
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics , Columbia University , New York , NY , USA.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gelman
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology , University of Amsterdam , Amsterdam , The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Eric-Jan
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Wagenmakers
keywords: Bayes factor; credible interval; evidence; preregistration; reproducibility