title: Dengue Baidu Search Index data can improve the prediction of local dengue epidemic: A case study in Guangzhou, China.
abstract: Dengue fever (DF) in Guangzhou, Guangdong province in China is an important public health issue. The problem was highlighted in 2014 by a large, unprecedented outbreak. In order to respond in a more timely manner and hence better control such potential outbreaks in the future, this study develops an early warning model that integrates internet-based query data into traditional surveillance data.
  
  
  
  A Dengue Baidu Search Index (DBSI) was collected from the Baidu website for developing a predictive model of dengue fever in combination with meteorological and demographic factors. Generalized additive models (GAM) with or without DBSI were established. The generalized cross validation (GCV) score and deviance explained indexes, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and root mean squared error (RMSE), were respectively applied to measure the fitness and the prediction capability of the models. Our results show that the DBSI with one-week lag has a positive linear relationship with the local DF occurrence, and the model with DBSI (ICC:0.94 and RMSE:59.86) has a better prediction capability than the model without DBSI (ICC:0.72 and RMSE:203.29).
  
  
  
  Our study suggests that a DSBI combined with traditional disease surveillance and meteorological data can improve the dengue early warning system in Guangzhou.
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Zhihao
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9789-3145
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Tao
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.|School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, China.
authors.forename: Guanghu
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Zhu
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Hualiang
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Yonghui
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Jianfeng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Aiping
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Deng
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Zhiqiang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Peng
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Jianpeng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia.
authors.forename: Shannon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rutherford
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Runsheng
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Xie
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Weilin
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Zeng
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Xing
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Wenjun
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Ma
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D058872:Epidemics; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D020407:Internet; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D015233:Models, Statistical