title: Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias.
abstract: One of the most accepted findings across psychology is that people are unrealistically optimistic in their judgments of comparative risk concerning future life events-they judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person. Harris and Hahn (2011), however, demonstrated how unbiased (non-optimistic) responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism due to statistical artifacts. In the current paper, we report the results of 5 studies that control for these statistical confounds and observe no evidence for residual unrealistic optimism, even observing a 'severity effect' whereby severe outcomes were overestimated relative to neutral ones (Studies 3 & 4). We conclude that there is no evidence supporting an optimism interpretation of previous results using the prevalent comparison method.
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Adam J L
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Harris
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Laura
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: de Molière
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Melinda
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Soh
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychological Sciences, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Ulrike
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Hahn
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D003071:Cognition; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008297:Male; D009042:Motivation; D000067656:Optimism; D013334:Students / Q000523:psychology; D055815:Young Adult