title: Predicting AKI in emergency admissions: an external validation study of the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS).
abstract: Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is associated with a high risk of mortality. Prediction models or rules may identify those most at risk of HA-AKI. This study externally validated one of the few clinical prediction rules (CPRs) derived in a general medicine cohort using clinical information and data from an acute hospitals electronic system on admission: the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS).
  
  
  
  External validation in a single UK non-specialist acute hospital (2013-2015, 12 554 episodes); four cohorts: adult medical and general surgical populations, with and without a known preadmission baseline serum creatinine (SCr).
  
  
  
  Performance assessed by discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCROC) and calibration.
  
  
  
  HA-AKI incidence within 7 days (kidney disease: improving global outcomes (KDIGO) change in SCr) was 8.1% (n=409) of medical patients with known baseline SCr, 6.6% (n=141) in those without a baseline, 4.9% (n=204) in surgical patients with baseline and 4% (n=49) in those without. Across the four cohorts AUCROC were: medical with known baseline 0.65 (95% CIs 0.62 to 0.67) and no baseline 0.71 (0.67 to 0.75), surgical with baseline 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) and no baseline 0.68 (0.58 to 0.75). For calibration, in medicine and surgical cohorts with baseline SCr, Hosmer-Lemeshow p values were non-significant, suggesting acceptable calibration. In the medical cohort, at a cut-off of five points on the APS to predict HA-AKI, positive predictive value was 16% (13-18%) and negative predictive value 94% (93-94%). Of medical patients with HA-AKI, those with an APS ≥5 had a significantly increased risk of death (28% vs 18%, OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.9), p=0.015).
  
  
  
  On external validation the APS on admission shows moderate discrimination and acceptable calibration to predict HA-AKI and may be useful as a severity marker when HA-AKI occurs. Harnessing linked data from primary care may be one way to achieve more accurate risk prediction.
authors.affiliation: Academic Unit of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Southampton General Hospital, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.|Anaesthetics Department, Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Worthing, UK.
authors.forename: L E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Hodgson
authors.affiliation: Academic Unit of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Southampton General Hospital, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
authors.forename: B D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Dimitrov
authors.affiliation: Academic Unit of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Southampton General Hospital, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
authors.forename: P J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Roderick
authors.affiliation: Anaesthetics Department, Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Worthing, UK.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Venn
authors.affiliation: The Royal Surrey County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Guildford, UK.|Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
authors.forename: L G
authors.initials: LG
authors.lastname: Forni
mesh_terms: D058186:Acute Kidney Injury / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019540:Area Under Curve; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007677:Kidney Function Tests; D007902:Length of Stay / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013997:Time Factors; D006113:United Kingdom; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D003404:Creatinine
keywords: GENERAL MEDICINE (see Internal Medicine)