title: Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS).
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Cardiovascular (CV) events are the primary cause of death and becoming bedridden among hemodialysis (HD) patients. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is useful for predicting incidence of CV events in the general population, but is considerd to be unsuitable for the prediction of the incidence of CV events in HD patients, given their characteristics due to atypical relationships between conventional risk factors and outcomes. We therefore aimed to develop a new prognostic prediction model for prevention and early detection of CV events among hemodialysis patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  We enrolled 3,601 maintenance HD patients based on their data from the Japan Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS), phases 3 and 4. We longitudinaly assessed the association between several potential candidate predictors and composite CV events in the year after study initiation. Potential candidate predictors included the component factors of FRS and other HD-specific risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop our new prediction model and generated a calibration plot. Additinially, we performed bootstrapping to assess the internal validity.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We observed 328 composite CV events during 1-year follow-up. The final prediction model contained six variables: age, diabetes status, history of CV events, dialysis time per session, and serum phosphorus and albumin levels. The new model showed significantly better discrimination than the FRS, in both men (c-statistics: 0.76 for new model, 0.64 for FRS) and women (c-statistics: 0.77 for new model, 0.60 for FRS). Additionally, we confirmed the consistency between the observed results and predicted results using the calibration plot. Further, we found similar discrimination and calibration to the derivation model in the bootstrapping cohort.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We developed a new risk model consisting of only six predictors. Our new model predicted CV events more accurately than the FRS.
authors.affiliation: Department of Artificial Organs, Akane-Foundation Omachi Tsuchiya Clinic, and Hiroshima Medical University, Hiroshima, Japan.
authors.forename: Yukiko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Matsubara
authors.affiliation: Department of Healthcare Epidemiology, School of Public Health in the Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.|Institute for Health Outcomes and Process Evaluation Research (iHope International), Kyoto, Japan.
authors.forename: Miho
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kimachi
authors.affiliation: Department of Healthcare Epidemiology, School of Public Health in the Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.|Institute for Health Outcomes and Process Evaluation Research (iHope International), Kyoto, Japan.|Center for Innovative Research for Communities and Clinical Excellence, Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Japan.
authors.forename: Shingo
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8379-8761
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fukuma
authors.affiliation: Institute for Health Outcomes and Process Evaluation Research (iHope International), Kyoto, Japan.
authors.forename: Yoshihiro
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Onishi
authors.affiliation: Department of Healthcare Epidemiology, School of Public Health in the Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.|Center for Innovative Research for Communities and Clinical Excellence, Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Japan.
authors.forename: Shunichi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fukuhara
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016017:Odds Ratio; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011379:Prognosis; D006435:Renal Dialysis / Q000009:adverse effects*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors