title: Climate variability and migration in the Philippines.
abstract: This study investigates the effects of climatic variations and extremes captured by variability in temperature, precipitation, and incidents of typhoons on aggregate inter-provincial migration within the Philippines using panel data. Our results indicate that a rise in temperature and to some extent increased typhoon activity increase outmigration, while precipitation does not have a consistent, significant effect. We also find that temperature and typhoons have significant negative effects on rice yields, a proxy for agricultural productivity, and generate more outmigration from provinces that are more agriculturally dependent and have a larger share of rural population. Finally, migration decisions of males, younger individuals, and those with higher levels of education are more sensitive to rising temperature and typhoons. We conclude that temperature increase and to some extent typhoon activities promote migration, potentially through their negative effect on crop yields. The migration responses of males, more educated, and younger individuals are more sensitive to these climatic impacts.
authors.affiliation: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
authors.forename: Pratikshya
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Bohra-Mishra
authors.affiliation: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Oppenheimer
authors.affiliation: Global Climate Program, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY 10010 USA.
authors.forename: Ruohong
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.affiliation: Institute for Economic and Social Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632 China.
authors.forename: Shuaizhang
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA.
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Licker
keywords: Agricultural productivity; Climate change; Environmental migrants; Migration; Temperature; Typhoons