title: Predicting drinking outcomes: Evidence from the United Kingdom Alcohol Treatment Trial (UKATT).
abstract: To explore client characteristics that predict drinking outcomes using data from the UK Alcohol Treatment Trial (UKATT).
  
  
  
  Multiple linear regression was used to determine if there were any characteristics, measured before the start of treatment, that could predict drinking outcomes at three and 12months, as measured by percent day abstinent (PDA) and drinks per drinking day (DDD) over the preceding 90days.
  
  
  
  Lower baseline DDD score and greater confidence to resist drinking predicted lower DDD at both three and twelve months following entry to treatment. In addition to baseline PDA and having greater confidence to resist heavy drinking, female gender, aiming for abstinence, more satisfaction with family life and a social network that included less support for drinking were predictors of percent days abstinent.
  
  
  
  Overall the strongest and most consistent predictors of outcome were confidence to avoid heavy drinking and social support for drinking. More predictors were identified for percent of days abstinent than for drinks per drinking day. For percent of days abstinent, a number of client characteristics at baseline consistently predicted outcome at both month three and month twelve.
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Sciences, University of York, UK. Electronic address: veronica.dale@york.ac.uk.
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Dale
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Health & Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Heather
authors.affiliation: National Addiction Centre, University of Otago, Christchurch, New Zealand.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Adamson
authors.affiliation: Centre for Health Services Studies, University of Kent, UK.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Coulton
authors.affiliation: School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, UK.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Copello
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Sciences, University of York, UK.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Godfrey
authors.affiliation: Cardiff Metropolitan University, UK.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hodgson
authors.affiliation: School of Psychology, University of Birmingham, UK.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Orford
authors.affiliation: Leeds Addiction Unit, 19 Springfield Mount, Leeds, UK.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Raistrick
authors.affiliation: Leeds Addiction Unit, 19 Springfield Mount, Leeds, UK.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Tober
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000628:therapy*; D001521:Behavior Therapy / Q000379:methods*; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D017533:Marital Status; D062405:Motivational Interviewing / Q000379:methods*; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D012737:Sex Factors; D012944:Social Support; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D006113:United Kingdom