title: Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems.
abstract: Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.
authors.affiliation: National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Stephanie A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Henson
authors.affiliation: Ocean and Earth Sciences, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Claudie
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Beaulieu
authors.affiliation: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Tatiana
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ilyina
authors.affiliation: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, New Jersey 08540, USA.
authors.forename: Jasmin G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: John
authors.affiliation: Climate and Global Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-1273-2957
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Long
authors.affiliation: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France.
authors.forename: Roland
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Séférian
authors.affiliation: Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Box 7803, NO-5020, Bergen, Norway.
authors.forename: Jerry
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-4600-2453
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tjiputra
authors.affiliation: Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, 300 Forrestal Road, Sayre Hall, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA.
authors.forename: Jorge L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Sarmiento
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D013997:Time Factors