title: Realistic fear of cervical cancer risk in Japan depending on birth year.
abstract: In Japan, the possible adverse events upon HPV vaccination was widely reported in the media. MHLW announced the suspension of aggressively encouraging HPV vaccination in 2013, and inoculation rate has sharply declined. The aim of the present study was estimation of future cervical cancer risk.
  
  
  
  The latest data on vaccination rate at each age in Sakai City were first investigated. The rate of experiencing sexual intercourse at the age of 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 and throughout lifetime is assumed to be 0%, 1%, 2%, 5%, 15%, 25%, and 85% respectively. The cervical cancer risk was regarded to be proportional to the relative risk of HPV infection over the lifetime. The risk in those born in 1993 whom HPV vaccination was not available yet for was defined to be 1.0000.
  
  
  
  The cumulative vaccination rates were 65.8% in those born in 1994, 72.7% in 1995, 72.8% in 1996, 75.7% in 1997, 75.0% in 1998, 66.8% in 1999, 4.1% in 2000, 1.5% in 2001, 0.1% in 2002, and 0.1% in 2003. The relative cervical cancer risk in those born in 1994-1999 was reduced to 0.56-0.70, however, the rate in those born in 2000-2003 was 0.98-1.0, almost the same risk as before introduction of the vaccine.
  
  
  
  The cumulative initial vaccination rates were different by the year of birth. It is confirmed that the risk of future cervical cancer differs in accordance with the year of birth. For these females, cervical cancer screening should be recommended more strongly.
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Asami
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Yagi
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Yutaka
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ueda
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Tomomi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Egawa-Takata
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Yusuke
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Tanaka
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Ruriko
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Nakae
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Akiko
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Morimoto
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|c Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka Medical College Graduate School of Medical Sciences , Takatsuki , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Yoshito
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Terai
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|c Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka Medical College Graduate School of Medical Sciences , Takatsuki , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Masahide
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ohmichi
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|d Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka City University Graduate School and Faculty of Medicine , Abeno-ku , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Tomoyuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ichimura
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|d Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka City University Graduate School and Faculty of Medicine , Abeno-ku , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Toshiyuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Sumi
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|e Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Kansai Medical University Graduate School of Medicine , Hirakata , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Hiromi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Murata
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|e Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Kansai Medical University Graduate School of Medicine , Hirakata , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Hidetaka
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Okada
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|f Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Kinki University Graduate School of Medical Sciences , Osaka-Sayama , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Hidekatsu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nakai
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|f Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Kinki University Graduate School of Medical Sciences , Osaka-Sayama , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Masaki
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mandai
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Shinya
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Matsuzaki
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Eiji
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kobayashi
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Kiyoshi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yoshino
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|b Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Tadashi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kimura
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Junko
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Saito
authors.affiliation: g Department of Pathology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Yumiko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hori
authors.affiliation: g Department of Pathology , Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine , Yamadaoka, Suita , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Eiichi
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Morii
authors.affiliation: h Center for Cancer Control and Statistics , Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases , Higashinari-ku , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Tomio
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nakayama
authors.affiliation: i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan.
authors.forename: Yukio
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Suzuki
authors.affiliation: i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan.
authors.forename: Yoko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Motoki
authors.affiliation: i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan.
authors.forename: Akiko
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sukegawa
authors.affiliation: i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan.
authors.forename: Mikiko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Asai-Sato
authors.affiliation: i Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine , Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama , Kanagawa , Japan.
authors.forename: Etsuko
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Miyagi
authors.affiliation: j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan.
authors.forename: Manako
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yamaguchi
authors.affiliation: j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan.
authors.forename: Risa
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kudo
authors.affiliation: j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan.
authors.forename: Sosuke
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Adachi
authors.affiliation: j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan.
authors.forename: Masayuki
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sekine
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.|j Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology , Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences , Chuo-ku , Niigata , Japan.
authors.forename: Takayuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Enomoto
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Yorihiko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Horikoshi
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Tetsu
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Takagi
authors.affiliation: a The OCEAN Study Group (The Obstetrical Gynecological Society of Osaka) , Kawaramachi, Chuo-ku , Osaka , Japan.
authors.forename: Kentaro
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Shimura
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000367:Age Factors; D002648:Child; D005239:Fear; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D030361:Papillomavirus Infections / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D000073887:Vaccination Coverage
keywords: HPV vaccine; cervical cancer; governmental suspension of recommendation; relative risk; vaccination rate