title: Mathematical Modelling of Immune Parameters in the Evolution of Severe Dengue.
abstract: Aims. Predicting the risk of severity at an early stage in an individual patient will be invaluable in preventing morbidity and mortality caused by dengue. We hypothesized that such predictions are possible by analyzing multiple parameters using mathematical modeling.Methodology. Data from 11 adult patients with dengue fever (DF) and 25 patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) were analyzed. Multivariate statistical analysis was performed to study the characteristics and interactions of parameters using dengue NS1 antigen levels, dengue IgG antibody levels, platelet counts, and lymphocyte counts. Fuzzy logic fundamentals were used to map the risk of developing severe forms of dengue. The cumulative effects of the parameters were incorporated using the Hamacher and the OWA operators.Results. The operator classified the patients according to the severity level during the time period of 96 hours to 120 hours after the onset of fever. The accuracy ranged from 53% to 89%.Conclusion. The results show a robust mathematical model that explains the evolution from dengue to its serious forms in individual patients. The model allows prediction of severe cases of dengue which could be useful for optimal management of patients during a dengue outbreak. Further analysis of the model may also deepen our understanding of the pathways towards severe illness.
authors.affiliation: Research and Development Center for Mathematical Modeling, Faculty of Science, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka.
authors.forename: M K
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-2588-5277
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Premaratne
authors.affiliation: Research and Development Center for Mathematical Modeling, Faculty of Science, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka.
authors.forename: S S N
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Perera
authors.affiliation: Centre for Dengue Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, Nugegoda, Sri Lanka.
authors.forename: G N
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Malavige
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka.
authors.forename: Saroj
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Jayasinghe
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D016208:Databases, Factual; D003715:Dengue / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology*; D003716:Dengue Virus; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D017143:Fuzzy Logic; D006801:Humans; D007074:Immunoglobulin G / Q000737:chemistry; D018655:Lymphocyte Count; D008490:Medical Informatics; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010976:Platelet Count; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D019595:Severe Dengue / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology*; D013997:Time Factors; D017361:Viral Nonstructural Proteins / Q000378:metabolism
chemical_list: D007074:Immunoglobulin G; C082515:NS1 protein, dengue-1 virus; D017361:Viral Nonstructural Proteins