title: Particulate air pollution and mortality in 38 of China's largest cities: time series analysis.
abstract: ObjectivesTo estimate the short term effect of particulate air pollution (particle diameter <10 μm, or PM10) on mortality and explore the heterogeneity of particulate air pollution effects in major cities in China.DesignGeneralised linear models with different lag structures using time series data.Setting38 of the largest cities in 27 provinces of China (combined population >200 million).Participants350 638 deaths (200 912 in males, 149 726 in females) recorded in 38 city districts by the Disease Surveillance Point System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 1 January 2010 to 29 June 2013.Main outcome measureDaily numbers of deaths from all causes, cardiorespiratory diseases, and non-cardiorespiratory diseases and among different demographic groups were used to estimate the associations between particulate air pollution and mortality.ResultsA 10 µg/m3change in concurrent day PM10concentrations was associated with a 0.44% (95% confidence interval 0.30% to 0.58%) increase in daily number of deaths. Previous day and two day lagged PM10levels decreased in magnitude by one third and two thirds but remained statistically significantly associated with increased mortality. The estimate for the effect of PM10on deaths from cardiorespiratory diseases was 0.62% (0.43% to 0.81%) per 10 µg/m3compared with 0.26% (0.09% to 0.42%) for other cause mortality. Exposure to PM10had a greater impact on females than on males. Adults aged 60 and over were more vulnerable to particulate air pollution at high levels than those aged less than 60. The PM10effect varied across different cities and marginally decreased in cities with higher PM10concentrations.ConclusionParticulate air pollution has a greater impact on deaths from cardiorespiratory diseases than it does on other cause mortality. People aged 60 or more have a higher risk of death from particulate air pollution than people aged less than 60. The estimates of the effect varied across cities and covered a wide range of domain.
authors.affiliation: National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Peng
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Yin
authors.affiliation: Division of Social Science, Division of Environment, and Department of Economics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
authors.forename: Guojun
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Miller College of Business Department of Economics, Ball State University, Muncie, IN, USA.
authors.forename: Maoyong
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fan
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
authors.forename: Kowk Yan
authors.initials: KY
authors.lastname: Chiu
authors.affiliation: Department of Respiratory Medicine, Xiyuan Hospital of China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Maorong
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fan
authors.affiliation: Department of Finance, Scheller College of Business, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA, USA.
authors.forename: Chang
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: An
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Xue
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
authors.forename: Tong
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China.
authors.forename: Yuhang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Pan
authors.affiliation: The Nature Conservancy, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Quan
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Mu
authors.affiliation: National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China maigengzhou@126.com.
authors.forename: Maigeng
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zhou