title: Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks.
abstract: Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Rudower Chaussee 16, 12489 Berlin, Germany.|Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Delphine Clara
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Zemp
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.|Climate Analytics, Ritterstr. 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Carl-Friedrich
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-8471-848X
authors.initials: CF
authors.lastname: Schleussner
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão 1371, 05508-090 São Paulo SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Henrique M J
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Barbosa
authors.affiliation: Department of Physics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Campus Universitário Reitor João David Ferreira Lima, 88040-900 Florianópolis SC, Brazil.|Department of Plant Biology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Rua Monteiro Lobato, 255 13083-862 Campinas SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marina
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-1958-3651
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hirota
authors.affiliation: Department of Palynology and Climate Dynamics, Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, Georg-August-University, Untere Karspüle 2, 37073 Göttingen, Germany.
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Montade
authors.affiliation: Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC), National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Rodovia Pres. Dutra, km 39, 12.630-000 Cachoeira Paulista SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Gilvan
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Sampaio
authors.affiliation: Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Arie
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5409-1436
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Staal
authors.affiliation: Department of Water Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands.|Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket, 10405 Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Lan
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wang-Erlandsson
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.|Department of Ecology and Ecosystem Management, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany.
authors.forename: Anja
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rammig