title: Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.
abstract: During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Terry P
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Hughes
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: James T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Kerry
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.|College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Mariana
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Álvarez-Noriega
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Jorge G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Álvarez-Romero
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Kristen D
authors.initials: KD
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Andrew H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Baird
authors.affiliation: Commonwealth Science and Industry Research Organization, GPO Box 2583 Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
authors.forename: Russell C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Babcock
authors.affiliation: School of Biology, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Beger
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.|College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Bellwood
authors.affiliation: College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Ray
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Berkelmans
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.|Queensland Museum, 70-102 Flinders St, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Tom C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Bridge
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council, Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Ian R
authors.initials: IR
authors.lastname: Butler
authors.affiliation: School of Medical Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Byrne
authors.affiliation: Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Neal E
authors.initials: NE
authors.lastname: Cantin
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, Oceans Institute and School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Steeve
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Comeau
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.|College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Sean R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Connolly
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Graeme S
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Cumming
authors.affiliation: Fisheries Research, Department of Primary Industries, PO Box 4291, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales 2450, Australia.
authors.forename: Steven J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Dalton
authors.affiliation: School of Environment, and Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland 4111, Australia.
authors.forename: Guillermo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Diaz-Pulido
authors.affiliation: Coral Reef Watch, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.
authors.forename: C Mark
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Eakin
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia.
authors.forename: Will F
authors.initials: WF
authors.lastname: Figueira
authors.affiliation: Australian Institute of Marine Science, Indian Oceans Marine Research Centre, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: James P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Gilmour
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Hugo B
authors.initials: HB
authors.lastname: Harrison
authors.affiliation: Coral Reef Watch, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.|Global Science &Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, Maryland 20770, USA.|Marine Geophysical Laboratory, College of Science, Technology and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Scott F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Heron
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Andrew S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Hoey
authors.affiliation: Department of Environment and Agriculture, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia 6845, Australia.
authors.forename: Jean-Paul A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Hobbs
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.|College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Mia O
authors.initials: MO
authors.lastname: Hoogenboom
authors.affiliation: School of Environment, and Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland 4111, Australia.
authors.forename: Emma V
authors.initials: EV
authors.lastname: Kennedy
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Chao-Yang
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Kuo
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.|Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Janice M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Lough
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, Oceans Institute and School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Ryan J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Lowe
authors.affiliation: Coral Reef Watch, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.|Global Science &Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, Maryland 20770, USA.
authors.forename: Gang
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, Oceans Institute and School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Malcolm T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: McCulloch
authors.affiliation: Fisheries Research, Department of Primary Industries, PO Box 4291, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales 2450, Australia.
authors.forename: Hamish A
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Malcolm
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: McWilliam
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council, Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Pandolfi
authors.affiliation: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, PO Box 1379, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Rachel J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Pears
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Morgan S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Pratchett
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies, Oceans Institute and School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Verena
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Schoepf
authors.affiliation: Torres Strait Regional Authority, PO Box 261, Thursday Island, Queensland 4875, Australia.
authors.forename: Tristan
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Simpson
authors.affiliation: Coral Reef Watch, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.|Global Science &Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, Maryland 20770, USA.
authors.forename: William J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Skirving
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council, Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Brigitte
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sommer
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.|Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Gergely
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Torda
authors.affiliation: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, PO Box 1379, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Wachenfeld
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.|College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Bette L
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: Willis
authors.affiliation: Department of Parks and Wildlife, Kensington, Perth, Western Australia 6151, Australia.
authors.forename: Shaun K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Wilson
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D037421:Anthozoa / Q000378:metabolism*; D001315:Australia; D002734:Chlorophyll / Q000378:metabolism; D000077194:Chlorophyll A; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000639:trends; D057894:Coral Reefs; D057232:Global Warming / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012623:Seawater / Q000032:analysis; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D002734:Chlorophyll; D000077194:Chlorophyll A