title: How good must models and data be in ecology?
abstract: Linear programming models of diet selection (LP) have been criticized as being too sensitive to variations in parameter values that have not been or may not be able to be measured with a high degree of precision (small standard error). Therefore, LP's predictions have been questioned, even though the predicted diet choices agree very well with observations in 400 published tests. The philosophical and statistical aspects of this criticism of LP are reviewed in light of the ability to test any nontrivial ecological theory. It is argued that measures of error in field data may not meet simple statistical definitions, and thereby, may make sensitivity analyses that use the error measures overly conservative. Furthermore, the important issue in testing ecological theory may not be the statistical confidence in a single test, but whether or not the theory withstands repeated tests.
authors.affiliation: Ecology Center and Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Utah State University, 84322-5210, Logan, UT, USA.
authors.forename: Gary E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Belovsky
keywords: Linear Programming Philosophy; Modeling; Optimal foraging; Sensitivity analysis