title: Correlates of county-level nonviral sexually transmitted infection hot spots in the US: application of hot spot analysis and spatial logistic regression.
abstract: We used a combination of hot spot analysis (HSA) and spatial regression to examine county-level hot spot correlates for the most commonly reported nonviral sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the 48 contiguous states in the United States (US).
  
  
  
  We obtained reported county-level total case rates of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and primary and secondary (P&S) syphilis in all counties in the 48 contiguous states from national surveillance data and computed temporally smoothed rates using 2008-2012 data. Covariates were obtained from county-level multiyear (2008-2012) American Community Surveys from the US census. We conducted HSA to identify hot spot counties for all three STIs. We then applied spatial logistic regression with the spatial error model to determine the association between the identified hot spots and the covariates.
  
  
  
  HSA indicated that ≥84% of hot spots for each STI were in the South. Spatial regression results indicated that, a 10-unit increase in the percentage of Black non-Hispanics was associated with ≈42% (P < 0.01) [≈22% (P < 0.01), for Hispanics] increase in the odds of being a hot spot county for chlamydia and gonorrhea, and ≈27% (P < 0.01) [≈11% (P < 0.01) for Hispanics] for P&S syphilis. Compared with the other regions (West, Midwest, and Northeast), counties in the South were 6.5 (P < 0.01; chlamydia), 9.6 (P < 0.01; gonorrhea), and 4.7 (P < 0.01; P&S syphilis) times more likely to be hot spots.
  
  
  
  Our study provides important information on hot spot clusters of nonviral STIs in the entire United States, including associations between hot spot counties and sociodemographic factors.
authors.affiliation: Division of STD Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA; Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY.
authors.forename: Brian A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: Division of STD Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.
authors.forename: William S
authors.initials: WS
authors.lastname: Pearson
authors.affiliation: Division of STD Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA. Electronic address: Kowusuedusei@cdc.gov.
authors.forename: Kwame
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Owusu-Edusei
mesh_terms: D001741:Black or African American / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D002690:Chlamydia Infections / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006069:Gonorrhea / Q000453:epidemiology; D006630:Hispanic or Latino / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D013587:Syphilis / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Hot spots; Metro; Nonmetro; Sexually transmitted infections; Spatial logistic regression