title: Development and Validation of a Model for Predicting Diabetic Nephropathy in Chinese People.
abstract: To develop a risk model for predicting later development of diabetic nephropathy (DN) in Chinese people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and evaluate its performance with independent validation.
  
  
  
  We used data collected from the project 'Comprehensive Research on the Prevention and Control of Diabetes', which was a community-based study conducted by the Jiangsu Center for Disease Control and Prevention in 2013. A total of 11,771 eligible participants were included in our study. The endpoint was a clear diagnosis of DN. Data was divided into two components: a training set for model development and a test set for validation. The Cox proportional hazard regression was used for survival analysis in men and women. The model's performance was evaluated by discrimination and calibration.
  
  
  
  The incidence (cases per 10,000 person-years) of DN was 9.95 (95% CI; 8.66-11.43) in women and 11.28 (95% CI; 9.77-13.03) in men. Factors including diagnosis age, location, body mass index, high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol, creatinine, hypertension, dyslipidemia, retinopathy, diet control, and physical activity were significant in the final model. The model showed high discrimination and good calibration.
  
  
  
  The risk model for predicting DN in people with T2DM can be used in clinical practice for improving the quality of risk management and intervention.
authors.affiliation: Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Huai'an City Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huai'an 223001, Jiangsu, China.
authors.forename: Dan Dan
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Miao
authors.affiliation: Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Huai'an City Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huai'an 223001, Jiangsu, China.
authors.forename: En Chun
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Pan
authors.affiliation: Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Huai'an City Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huai'an 223001, Jiangsu, China.
authors.forename: Qin
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Huai'an City Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huai'an 223001, Jiangsu, China.
authors.forename: Zhong Ming
authors.initials: ZM
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China.
authors.forename: Yu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Qin
authors.affiliation: Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China.
authors.forename: Ming
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wu
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D044466:Asian People; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications*; D003928:Diabetic Nephropathies / Q000473:pathology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors; D014505:Urban Population
keywords: Diabetic nephropathy; Model development and validation; Risk factors; Type 2 diabetes mellitus