title: Temperature change and complex dynamics.
abstract: Density-dependent factors, such as population growth rate and migration, influence dynamic behaviour in ecological models. Temperature, an abiotic and density-independent factor, is also an important determinant of insect population growth. We investigated the endogenous dynamics of a density-dependent response-surface model that included temperature, based on time series for two aphid species. We investigated the effects of temperature and random noise on the model dynamics. In most cases, an increase in temperature resulted in a higher predicted equilibrium density; it could induce complex dynamics. Noise at the level of the natural variation in temperature resulted in extinctions in some models. Our results from these models indicate that aphid populations might become more abundant, and less stable in some circumstances, if there is climate warming.
authors.affiliation: Departments of Entomology & Nematology, and Statistics, IACR-Rothamsted, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK, , , , , , GB.
authors.forename: X
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: Departments of Entomology & Nematology, and Statistics, IACR-Rothamsted, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK, , , , , , GB.
authors.forename: J N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: Perry
authors.affiliation: Departments of Entomology & Nematology, and Statistics, IACR-Rothamsted, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK, , , , , , GB.
authors.forename: I P
authors.initials: IP
authors.lastname: Woiwod
authors.affiliation: Departments of Entomology & Nematology, and Statistics, IACR-Rothamsted, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK, , , , , , GB.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Harrington
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK, , , , , , GB.
authors.forename: J S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Bale
authors.affiliation: Departments of Entomology & Nematology, and Statistics, IACR-Rothamsted, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK, , , , , , GB.
authors.forename: S J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Clark
keywords: Aphids; Key words Nonlinear dynamics; Models; Time series analysis