title: Predicting suicidal behaviours using clinical instruments: systematic review and meta-analysis of positive predictive values for risk scales.
abstract: BackgroundPrediction of suicidal behaviour is an aspirational goal for clinicians and policy makers; with patients classified as 'high risk' to be preferentially allocated treatment. Clinical usefulness requires an adequate positive predictive value (PPV).AimsTo identify studies of predictive instruments and to calculate PPV estimates for suicidal behaviours.MethodA systematic review identified studies of predictive instruments. A series of meta-analyses produced pooled estimates of PPV for suicidal behaviours.ResultsFor all scales combined, the pooled PPVs were: suicide 5.5% (95% CI 3.9-7.9%), self-harm 26.3% (95% CI 21.8-31.3%) and self-harm plus suicide 35.9% (95% CI 25.8-47.4%). Subanalyses on self-harm found pooled PPVs of 16.1% (95% CI 11.3-22.3%) for high-quality studies, 32.5% (95% CI 26.1-39.6%) for hospital-treated self-harm and 26.8% (95% CI 19.5-35.6%) for psychiatric in-patients.ConclusionsNo 'high-risk' classification was clinically useful. Prevalence imposes a ceiling on PPV. Treatment should reduce exposure to modifiable risk factors and offer effective interventions for selected subpopulations and unselected clinical populations.
authors.affiliation: Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia Gregory.carter@newcastle.edu.au.
authors.forename: Gregory
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Carter
authors.affiliation: Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Allison
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Milner
authors.affiliation: Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Katie
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: McGill
authors.affiliation: Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Jane
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pirkis
authors.affiliation: Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Nav
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kapur
authors.affiliation: Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Spittal
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016728:Self-Injurious Behavior / Q000175:diagnosis; D013405:Suicide / Q000523:psychology*; D013406:Suicide, Attempted / Q000523:psychology*