title: Model-Based Evaluation of Strategies to Control Brucellosis in China.
abstract: Brucellosis, the most common zoonotic disease worldwide, represents a great threat to animal husbandry with the potential to cause enormous economic losses. Brucellosis has become a major public health problem in China, and the number of human brucellosis cases has increased dramatically in recent years. In order to evaluate different intervention strategies to curb brucellosis transmission in China, a novel mathematical model with a general indirect transmission incidence rate was presented. By comparing the results of three models using national human disease data and 11 provinces with high case numbers, the best fitted model with standard incidence was used to investigate the potential for future outbreaks. Estimated basic reproduction numbers were highly heterogeneous, varying widely among provinces. The local basic reproduction numbers of provinces with an obvious increase in incidence were much larger than the average for the country as a whole, suggesting that environment-to-individual transmission was more common than individual-to-individual transmission. We concluded that brucellosis can be controlled through increasing animal vaccination rates, environment disinfection frequency, or elimination rates of infected animals. Our finding suggests that a combination of animal vaccination, environment disinfection, and elimination of infected animals will be necessary to ensure cost-effective control for brucellosis.
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China. limingtao18@126.com.|School of Computer and Information Technology, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China. limingtao18@126.com.
authors.forename: Ming-Tao
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China. sunguiquan@sxu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Gui-Quan
authors.initials: GQ
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Institute of Disease Control and Prevention, Academy of Military Medical Science, Beijing 100071, China. zwy0419@126.com.
authors.forename: Wen-Yi
authors.initials: WY
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China. jinzhn@263.net.
authors.forename: Zhen
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Jin
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D002006:Brucellosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004203:Disinfection; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014611:Vaccination / Q000662:veterinary; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission
keywords: basic reproduction number; brucellosis; control strategy; dynamic modeling