title: Serum calcium as an indicator of persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Decreased level of serum calcium was commonly seen in critical illness. Hypocalcemia was significantly more frequent in patients with severe form of acute pancreatitis (AP), and a negative correlation was observed between endotoxemia and serum calcium in AP. AP patients with persistent organ failure (POF) show an extremely high mortality. The association underlying calcium and POF in AP has not been characterized.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients who presented within 72hours from symptom onset of AP at our center between January 2014 and May 2015. Demographic parameters on admission, organ failure assessment, laboratory data and in-hospital mortality were compared between patients with and without POF. Uni-and multi-variate logistic regression analyses were utilized to evaluated the predictive ability of serum calcium.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 128 consecutive AP patients, including 29 with POF, were included. Compared to patients without POF, patients with POF showed a significantly lower value of serum calcium on admission (2.11±0.46 vs. 1.55±0.36mmol/L, P<0.001). After multivariate logistic analysis, serum calcium remained an independent risk factor for POF (Hazard ratio 0.21, 95% confident interval: 0.08-0.58; P=0.002). A calcium value of 1.97mmol/L predicted POF with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.888, a sensitivity with 89.7% and specificity with 74.8%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our results indicate that serum calcium on admission is independently associated with POF in AP and may serve as a potential prognostic factor.
authors.affiliation: Pancreatic Disease Institute, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Tao
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Peng
authors.affiliation: Cancer Center, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Peng
authors.affiliation: Pancreatic Disease Institute, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Min
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Pancreatic Disease Institute, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Cui
authors.affiliation: Pancreatic Disease Institute, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China. Electronic address: zhyshun@hust.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Yushun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Pancreatic Disease Institute, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Heshui
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Pancreatic Disease Institute, Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430022, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Chunyou
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004635:Emergency Medicine; D019446:Endotoxemia / Q000097:blood* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009102:Multiple Organ Failure / Q000097:blood* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000097:blood* / Q000401:mortality / Q000503:physiopathology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers
keywords: Acute pancreatitis; Persistent organ failure; Serum calcium