title: The history of risk: a review.
abstract: In the USA alone, around 22 million patients annually discuss the need for surgical procedure with their surgeon. On a global scale, more than 200 million patients are exposed to the risk of undergoing a surgical procedure every year. A crucial part of the informed consent process for surgery is the understanding of risk, the probability of complications, and the predicted occurrence of adverse events. Ironically, risk quantification, risk stratification, and risk management are not necessarily part of a surgeon's core skillset, considering the lengthy surgical training curriculum towards technical excellence. The present review was designed to provide a concise historic perspective on the evolution of our current understanding of risk and probability, which represent the key underlying pillars of the shared decision-making process between surgeons and patients when discussing surgical treatment options.
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedics, University of Colorado, School of Medicine and Denver Health Medical Center, 777 Bannock Street, Denver, CO 80204 USA.|Department of Neurosurgery, University of Colorado, School of Medicine and Denver Health Medical Center, Denver, CO 80204 USA.
authors.forename: Philip F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Stahel
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care, University of Colorado, School of Medicine and Denver Health Medical Center, Denver, CO 80204 USA.
authors.forename: Ivor S
authors.initials: IS
authors.lastname: Douglas
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedics, University of Colorado, School of Medicine and Denver Health Medical Center, 777 Bannock Street, Denver, CO 80204 USA.
authors.forename: Todd F
authors.initials: TF
authors.lastname: VanderHeiden
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedics, University Hospital Ulm, D-89081 Ulm, Germany.
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Weckbach
mesh_terms: D003657:Decision Making; D049668:History, 15th Century; D049669:History, 16th Century; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049690:History, Ancient; D049691:History, Medieval; D006801:Humans; D010817:Physician-Patient Relations; D011336:Probability; D012306:Risk; D012308:Risk Management / Q000266:history*
keywords: Decision-making; History; Probability theory; Risk; Risk management