Impact of temperature on mortality in Hubei, China: a multi-county time series analysis.
We examined the impact of extreme temperatures on mortality in 12 counties across Hubei Province, central China, during 2009-2012. Quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was first applied to estimate county-specific relationship between temperature and mortality. A multivariable meta-analysis was then used to pool the estimates of county-specific mortality effects of extreme cold temperature (1st percentile) and hot temperature (99th percentile). An inverse J-shaped relationship was observed between temperature and mortality at the provincial level. Heat effect occurred immediately and persisted for 2-3 days, whereas cold effect was 1-2 days delayed and much longer lasting. Higher mortality risks were observed among females, the elderly aged over 75 years, persons dying outside the hospital and those with high education attainment, especially for cold effects. Our data revealed some slight differences in heat- and cold- related mortality effects on urban and rural residents. These findings may have important implications for developing locally-based preventive and intervention strategies to reduce temperature-related mortality, especially for those susceptible subpopulations. Also, urbanization should be considered as a potential influence factor when evaluating temperature-mortality association in future researches.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuchang District, Wuhan 430071, China.
Yunquan
Y
Zhang
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuchang District, Wuhan 430071, China.|Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, 8 Donghunan Road, Wuchang District, Wuhan 430072, China.
Chuanhua
C
Yu
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuchang District, Wuhan 430071, China.|Department of Health Policy and Management, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Road, Guangzhou 510080, China.|Guangzhou Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution and Health Risk Assessment, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, 74 Zhongshan 2nd Road, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Junzhe
J
Bao
Office of Epidemiology, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China.
Xudong
X
Li
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002423:Cause of Death; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D062486:Public Health Surveillance; D012307:Risk Factors; D013696:Temperature; D055815:Young Adult