[Research of prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, 1984-2015].
Objective:To analyze the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, and provide scientific evidence for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis.Methods:The changes of infection rates ofSchistosoma(S.)japonicumamong residents and cattle in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 were analyzed by using dynamic trend diagram; and the time regression model was used to fit the infection rates ofS. japonicum, and predict the recent infection rate.Results:The overall infection rates ofS. japonicumin Hunan from 1984 to 2015 showed downward trend (95.29% in residents and 95.16% in cattle). By using the linear regression model, the actual values of infection rates in residents and cattle were all in the 95% confidence intervals of the value predicted; and the prediction showed that the infection rates in the residents and cattle would continue to decrease from 2016 to 2020.Conclusion:The prevalence of schistosomiasis was in decline in Hunan. The regression model has a good effect in the short-term prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence.
Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410008, China; Department of Prevention and Control, Hunan Institute for Schistosomiasis Control, Yueyang 414000, China.
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FY
Li
Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha 410008, China.
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HZ
Tan
Department of Prevention and Control, Hunan Institute for Schistosomiasis Control, Yueyang 414000, China.
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Ren
Department of Prevention and Control, Hunan Institute for Schistosomiasis Control, Yueyang 414000, China.
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Jiang
Department of Prevention and Control, Hunan Institute for Schistosomiasis Control, Yueyang 414000, China.
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Wang
D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000469:parasitology; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence; D012106:Research; D012547:Schistosoma; D012552:Schistosomiasis / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000469:parasitology / Q000517:prevention & control; D012908:Snails
Prevalence; Regression model; Schistosomiasis; Trend analysis