Effectiveness of UNAIDS targets and HIV vaccination across 127 countries.
The HIV pandemic continues to impose enormous morbidity, mortality, and economic burdens across the globe. Simultaneously, innovations in antiretroviral therapy, diagnostic approaches, and vaccine development are providing novel tools for treatment-as-prevention and prophylaxis. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the added benefit of an HIV vaccine in the context of goals to increase rates of diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression in 127 countries. Under status quo interventions, we predict a median of 49 million [first and third quartiles 44M, 58M] incident cases globally from 2015 to 2035. Achieving the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 target was estimated to avert 25 million [20M, 33M] of these new infections, and an additional 6.3 million [4.8M, 8.7M] reduction was projected with the 2020 introduction of a 50%-efficacy vaccine gradually scaled up to 70% coverage. This added benefit of prevention through vaccination motivates imminent and ongoing clinical trials of viable candidates to realize the goal of HIV control.
Department of Biomedical Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-4801; jan.medlock@oregonstate.edu.
Jan
J
Medlock
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510-2483.
Abhishek
A
Pandey
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510-2483.
Alyssa S
AS
Parpia
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510-2483.
Amber
A
Tang
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510-2483.
Laura A
LA
Skrip
Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510-2483.
Alison P
AP
Galvani
D016915:AIDS Vaccines / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D014480:United Nations; D000073887:Vaccination Coverage / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
D016915:AIDS Vaccines
HIV; effectiveness; mathematical model; vaccination