A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years.
Although predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC) (generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific for BC mortality at 5 and 10 years resolving the above issues. This cohort study included 287 patients diagnosed with BC in a Spanish region in 2003-2016.



time-to-BC death. Secondary variables: age, personal history of breast surgery, personal history of any cancer/BC, premenopause, postmenopause, grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, c-erbB2, TNM stage, multicentricity/multifocality, diagnosis and treatment. A points system was constructed to predict BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. The points system was integrated into a mobile application for Android. Mean follow-up was 8.6 ± 3.5 years and 55 patients died of BC. The points system included age, personal history of BC, grade, TNM stage and multicentricity. Validation was satisfactory, in both discrimination and calibration. In conclusion, we constructed and internally validated a scoring system for predicting BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. External validation studies are needed for its use in other geographical areas.
Surgery Service, General University Hospital of Elda, Elda, Alicante, Spain.
Esther
E
Paredes-Aracil
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain. apalazon@umh.es.
Antonio
A
Palazón-Bru
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain.
David Manuel
DM
Folgado-de la Rosa
Surgery Service, Marina Baixa Hospital, La Vila Joiosa, Alicante, Spain.
José Ramón
JR
Ots-Gutiérrez
Department of Pathology and Surgery, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain.
Antonio Fernando
AF
Compañ-Rosique
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, Spain.|Research Unit, General University Hospital of Elda, Elda, Alicante, Spain.
Vicente Francisco
VF
Gil-Guillén
D000368:Aged; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D012307:Risk Factors