Spatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015.
Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009-2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8% increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted.
Syracuse University Department of Public Health, Food Studies and Nutrition, Syracuse, New York, United States of America.
David A
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1876-6536
DA
Larsen
Syracuse University Department of Public Health, Food Studies and Nutrition, Syracuse, New York, United States of America.|Syracuse University Department of Anthropology, Syracuse, New York, United States of America.
Sandra
S
Lane
Street Addiction Institute, Syracuse, New York, United States of America.
Timothy
T
Jennings-Bey
Street Addiction Institute, Syracuse, New York, United States of America.
Arnett
A
Haygood-El
Syracuse City Police Department, Syracuse, New York, United States of America.
Kim
K
Brundage
Syracuse University Department of Anthropology, Syracuse, New York, United States of America.
Robert A
RA
Rubinstein
D002947:Cities; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D005389:Firearms; D005843:Geography / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D009518:New York; D011204:Poverty Areas; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012621:Seasons; D014754:Violence / Q000639:trends*