[Burden of smoking-related disease and potential impact of cigarette price increase in Peru].
OBJECTIVE
. To calculate the burden of smoking-related disease and evaluate the potential economic and health impact of tax-induced cigarette price increase in Peru.
A microsimulation model was used to estimate smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs associated with heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, lung cancer, and another nine cancers. Three scenarios, involving increased taxes, were evaluated.


RESULTS
. A yearly total of 16,719 deaths, 6,926 cancer diagnoses, 7,936 strokes, and 7,548 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking in Peru. Similarly, 396,069 years of life are lost each year from premature death and disability, and the cost of treating smoking-attributable health issues rises to 2,500 million soles (PEN 2015). Currently, taxes on tobacco cover only 9.1% of this expense. If cigarette prices were to increase by 50% over the next 10 years, 13,391 deaths, 6,210 cardiovascular events, and 5,361 new cancers could be prevented, representing an economic benefit of 3,145 million (PEN) in savings in health costs and increases in tax revenues.


CONCLUSIONS
. Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Peru. Higher cigarette taxes could have substantial health and economic benefits for the country.
Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria (IECS). Buenos Aires, Argentina.|Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Ariel E
AE
Bardach
Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria (IECS). Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Joaquín E
JE
Caporale
Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria (IECS). Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Andrea
A
Alcaraz
Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria (IECS). Buenos Aires, Argentina.|Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Buenos Aires, Argentina.|Escuela de Salud Pública, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA). Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Federico
F
Augustovski
Unidad de Epidemiología Clínica, Facultad de Medicina Alberto Hurtado, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
Leandro
L
Huayanay-Falconí
Unidad de Epidemiología Clínica, Facultad de Medicina Alberto Hurtado, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia. Lima, Perú.
Cesar
C
Loza-Munarriz
Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria (IECS). Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Akram
A
Hernández-Vásquez
Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria (IECS). Buenos Aires, Argentina.|Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Buenos Aires, Argentina.|Escuela de Salud Pública, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA). Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Andrés
A
Pichon-Riviere
D003132:Commerce; D006801:Humans; D010568:Peru / Q000453:epidemiology; D011788:Quality of Life; D012907:Smoking / Q000401:mortality*; D013660:Taxes; D062789:Tobacco Products / Q000191:economics*