Soil organic carbon distribution in Mediterranean areas under a climate change scenario via multiple linear regression analysis.
Over time, the interest on soil studies has increased due to its role in carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems, which could contribute to decreasing atmospheric CO2rates. In many studies, independent variables were related to soil organic carbon (SOC) alone, however, the contribution degree of each variable with the experimentally determined SOC content were not considered. In this study, samples from 612 soil profiles were obtained in a natural protected (Red Natura 2000) of Sierra Morena (Mediterranean area, South Spain), considering only the topsoil 0-25cm, for better comparison between results. 24 independent variables were used to define it relationship with SOC content. Subsequently, using a multiple linear regression analysis, the effects of these variables on the SOC correlation was considered. Finally, the best parameters determined with the regression analysis were used in a climatic change scenario. The model indicated that SOC in a future scenario of climate change depends on average temperature of coldest quarter (41.9%), average temperature of warmest quarter (34.5%), annual precipitation (22.2%) and annual average temperature (1.3%). When the current and future situations were compared, the SOC content in the study area was reduced a 35.4%, and a trend towards migration to higher latitude and altitude was observed.
Department of Agricultural Chemistry and Soil Science, Faculty of Science, Agrifood Campus of International Excellence - ceiA3, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain; Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Faculty of Science, Campus of International Excellence - ceiA3, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain.
Alfonso
A
Olaya-Abril
Department of Agricultural Chemistry and Soil Science, Faculty of Science, Agrifood Campus of International Excellence - ceiA3, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain; Sustainable Use and Management of Soils (SUMAS) Research Group, Spain. Electronic address: luis.parras@uco.es.
Luis
L
Parras-Alcántara
Department of Agricultural Chemistry and Soil Science, Faculty of Science, Agrifood Campus of International Excellence - ceiA3, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain; Sustainable Use and Management of Soils (SUMAS) Research Group, Spain.
Beatriz
B
Lozano-García
Department of Botany, Ecology and Plant physiology, Faculty of Science, Campus of International Excellence - ceiA3, University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain.
Rafael
R
Obregón-Romero
Climate change scenarios; Multiple linear regression; Physical and chemical soil properties; Protected areas of Spain; Soil organic carbon stock; Top soil