Stochastic modeling of phosphorus transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir by incorporating variability associated with the phosphorus partition coefficient.
Phosphorus (P) fate and transport plays a crucial role in the ecology of rivers and reservoirs in which eutrophication is limited by P. A key uncertainty in models used to help manage P in such systems is the partitioning of P to suspended and bed sediments. By analyzing data from field and laboratory experiments, we stochastically characterize the variability of the partition coefficient (Kd) and derive spatio-temporal solutions for P transport in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR). We formulate a set of stochastic partial different equations (SPDEs) to simulate P transport by randomly sampling Kdfrom the measured distributions, to obtain statistical descriptions of the P concentration and retention in the TGR. The correspondence between predicted and observed P concentrations and P retention in the TGR combined with the ability to effectively characterize uncertainty suggests that a model that incorporates the observed variability can better describe P dynamics and more effectively serve as a tool for P management in the system. This study highlights the importance of considering parametric uncertainty in estimating uncertainty/variability associated with simulated P transport.
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Lei
L
Huang
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. Electronic address: fanghw@tsinghua.edu.cn.
Hongwei
H
Fang
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Xingya
X
Xu
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
Guojian
G
He
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA.
Xuesong
X
Zhang
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409-1023, USA. Electronic address: danny.reible@ttu.edu.
Danny
D
Reible
Partition coefficient; Phosphorus transport; Stochastic model; Three Gorges Reservoir; Uncertainty