Cause and predictability for the severe haze pollution in downtown Beijing in November-December 2015.
Based on the hourly PM2.5concentrations, meteorological variable records and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, a series of diagnostic analyses were conducted to explore the possible meteorological causes for the severe haze pollution that occurred in Beijing in November-December 2015. Using the online-coupled WRF-Chem model and GFS data, the predictability of hourly and daily PM2.5concentrations was evaluated. The results showed that, in the context of pollutant emission, the severe haze pollution in downtown Beijing in November-December 2015 was primarily attributed to anomalous local meteorological conditions, which were caused and strengthened by anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulations. The abnormal changes in the upper troposphere appeared to trigger the anomalies in the middle-lower troposphere and the local conditions. The numerical simulations can capture the spatial distribution patterns of the PM2.5concentrations for predictions of 1 to 10days in advance. The PM2.5concentration trends in downtown Beijing were generally consistent with the predictions on both daily and hourly time-scales, although the predictability decreased gradually as the lead times prolonged. The predictability of the daily mean PM2.5concentration was slightly higher than that of the hourly concentration. The statistical indices suggested that the predictions of daily and hourly mean PM2.5concentrations were generally skillful and reliable for maximum lead times of 8 and 5days, respectively.
Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China; Institute of Urban Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China. Electronic address: zzy_ahgeo@163.com.
Ziyin
Z
Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Daoyi
D
Gong
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Rui
R
Mao
Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon 406-840, Republic of Korea.
Seong-Joong
SJ
Kim
Institute of Urban Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China.
Jing
J
Xu
Institute of Urban Meteorology, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China.
Xiujuan
X
Zhao
Environmental Meteorology Forecast Center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China.
Zhiqiang
Z
Ma
D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis*; D000068476:Beijing; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000032:analysis; D014887:Weather
D052638:Particulate Matter
Atmospheric circulation; Meteorological condition; PM(2.5); Severe haze pollution; WRF-Chem