title: Assessing spatio-temporal trend of vector breeding and dengue fever incidence in association with meteorological conditions.
abstract: Th aim of this study is to investigate spatio-temporal trends of dengue vector breeding and epidemic (disease incidence) influenced by climatic factors. The spatio-temporal (low-, medium-, and high-intensity periods) evaluation of entomological and epidemiological investigations along with climatic factors like rainfall (RF), temperature (Tmax), relative humidity (RH), and larval indexing was conducted to develop correlations in the area of Lahore, Pakistan. The vector abundance and disease transmission trend was geo-tagged for spatial insight. The sufficient rainfall events and optimum temperature and relative humidity supported dengue vector breeding with high larval indices for water-related containers (27-37%). Among temporal analysis, the high-intensity period exponentially projected disease incidence followed by post-rainfall impacts. The high larval incidence that was observed in early high-intensity periods effected the dengue incidence. The disease incidence had a strong association with RF (r = 0.940, α = 0.01). The vector larva occurrence (r = 0.017, α = 0.05) influenced the disease incidence. Similarly, RH (r = 0.674, α = 0.05) and average Tmax(r = 0.307, α = 0.05) also induced impact on the disease incidence. In this study, the vulnerability to dengue fever highly correlates with meteorological factors during high-intensity period. It provides area-specific understanding of vector behavior, key containers, and seasonal patterns of dengue vector breeding and disease transmission which is essential for preparing an effective prevention plan against the vector.
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Development Study Center, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan. fmawaisi@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: Afifa
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Malik
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Development Study Center, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Abdullah
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Yasar
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Development Study Center, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Amtul Bari
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Tabinda
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Government College University, Allama Iqbal Road, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Ihsan Elahi
authors.initials: IE
authors.lastname: Zaheer
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Khalida
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Malik
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Development Study Center, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Adeeba
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Batool
authors.affiliation: Sustainable Development Study Center, Government College University, Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.
authors.forename: Yusra
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Mahfooz
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes; D000818:Animals; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015994:Incidence; D007303:Insect Vectors; D007814:Larva; D010154:Pakistan; D011891:Rain; D012098:Reproduction; D013696:Temperature
keywords: Breeding sites; Climatic effect; Dengue incidence; Larva occurrence; Larval indices; Temporal trend