title: Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden.
  
  
  METHODS
  The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.
authors.affiliation: Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
authors.forename: Fatemeh
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-5172-7950
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Khosravi Shadmani
authors.affiliation: Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran.|Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Science, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Kamyar
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-5008-8547
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mansori
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
authors.forename: Manoochehr
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9026-3757
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Karami
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Farid
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7791-8122
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zayeri
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran.
authors.forename: Reza Khosravi
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-0579-4586
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Shadman
authors.affiliation: Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran.
authors.forename: Shiva Mansouri
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7107-4996
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Hanis
authors.affiliation: Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Hamid
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-3775-1831
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Soori
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000328:Adult; D017281:Cost of Illness; D000066448:Driving Under the Influence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D016017:Odds Ratio; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors
keywords: Human; Iran; Prevalence; Risk factors; Traffic accidents