title: Estimating 20-year land-use change and derived CO2emissions associated with crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil and each of its 27 states.
abstract: Land-use change (LUC) in Brazil has important implications on global climate change, ecosystem services and biodiversity, and agricultural expansion plays a critical role in this process. Concerns over these issues have led to the need for estimating the magnitude and impacts associated with that, which are increasingly reported in the environmental assessment of products. Currently, there is an extensive debate on which methods are more appropriate for estimating LUC and related emissions and regionalized estimates are lacking for Brazil, which is a world leader in agricultural production (e.g. food, fibres and bioenergy). We developed a method for estimating scenarios of past 20-year LUC and derived CO2emission rates associated with 64 crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil as whole and in each of its 27 states, based on time-series statistics and in accordance with most used carbon-footprinting standards. The scenarios adopted provide a range between minimum and maximum rates of CO2emissions from LUC according to different possibilities of land-use transitions, which can have large impacts in the results. Specificities of Brazil, like multiple cropping and highly heterogeneous carbon stocks, are also addressed. The highest CO2emission rates are observed in the Amazon biome states and crops with the highest rates are those that have undergone expansion in this region. Some states and crops showing large agricultural areas have low emissions associated, especially in southern and eastern Brazil. Native carbon stocks and time of agricultural expansion are the most decisive factors to the patterns of emissions. Some implications on LUC estimation methods and standards and on agri-environmental policies are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Embrapa Meio Ambiente, Jaguariúna, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Renan M L
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8113-9578
authors.initials: RML
authors.lastname: Novaes
authors.affiliation: Embrapa Meio Ambiente, Jaguariúna, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Ricardo A A
authors.initials: RAA
authors.lastname: Pazianotto
authors.affiliation: KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.|Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation, Pulawy, Poland.
authors.forename: Miguel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Brandão
authors.affiliation: Embrapa Agrobiologia, Seropédica, RJ, Brazil.
authors.forename: Bruno J R
authors.initials: BJR
authors.lastname: Alves
authors.affiliation: Embrapa Milho e Sorgo, Sete Lagoas, MG, Brazil.
authors.forename: André
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: May
authors.affiliation: Embrapa Meio Ambiente, Jaguariúna, SP, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marília I S
authors.initials: MIS
authors.lastname: Folegatti-Matsuura
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D001938:Brazil; D057231:Climate Change; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D016468:Forestry
keywords: Amazon; BRLUC; beef; carbon footprinting; life cycle assessment (LCA); maize; soybean; sugarcane