title: [A Projection of the Need for Rehabilitation in Germany Till 2040 Based on Demographic Factors].
abstract: The demographic changes in Germany leads to a significant shift in the composition of the population and the workforce, this affecting the future need for medical rehabilitation. This paper estimates the future change in rehabilitation demand based on a forecast for demographic changes till 2040. First, the sensitivity of the rehabilitation demand with respect to demographic factors is estimated. Second, the demographic factors are projected by stochastic methods, resulting in forecasts for the future need for medical rehabilitation. The projections show that the short-term demand is likely to rise. Theoretically, yearly wage increases of about 2.2% are needed for covering the increasing medical rehabilitation costs from 2010 till 2017. For the mid-term demand, the model predicts a slight decline in rehabilitation cases. Considering all these facts, the budget for rehabilitation will probably not cover the future costs for rehabilitation. However, the long-term forecast is subject to considerable uncertainty.
authors.affiliation: Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
authors.forename: Marcus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Christiansen
authors.affiliation: Institut für Finanz- und Aktuarwissenschaften, Ulm.
authors.forename: Jan-Philipp
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.affiliation: Institut für Versicherungswissenschaften, Universitat Ulm, Ulm.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Shkel
authors.affiliation: Institut für Rehabilitationsmedizinische Forschung an der Universität Ulm, IFR Ulm, Bad Buchau.
authors.forename: Rainer
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kaluscha
authors.affiliation: Abteilung für Orthopädie und Unfallchirurgie, Federseeklinik, Bad Buchau.
authors.forename: Lena
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Tepohl
authors.affiliation: Institut für Rehabilitationsmedizinische Forschung an der Universität Ulm, IFR Ulm, Bad Buchau.
authors.forename: Gert
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Krischak
mesh_terms: D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003710:Demography; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012046:Rehabilitation / Q000639:trends; D012456:Salaries and Fringe Benefits