title: Mass balance-based regression modeling of Cd and Zn accumulation in urban soils of Beijing.
abstract: Accumulation of heavy metals in urban soil can pose adverse impacts on public health and terrestrial ecosystems. We developed a mass balance-based regression model to simulate the heavy metal accumulation in urban soils as a function of time and to explore connections between metal concentration and urbanization processes. Concentrations of Cd and Zn in 68 residential soil samples in the urban area of Beijing were used. The background concentrations, the loss rates and the input fluxes of Cd and Zn in urban soils of Beijing during the last three decades were estimated using a regression of the time series of accumulations of the metals. Based on the regression estimates, we simulated the general trends of Cd and Zn accumulation in the soils from 1978 to 2078. The concentrations of Cd and Zn in urban soil generally increased with the population growth, vehicle use and coal consumption. The mean concentrations of Cd and Zn in urban soil of Beijing would increase by 3 fold over the next 70years for the current development scenario. The mass balance-based regression approach, which is able to reconstruct the history data of urban soil pollution, provides fundamental information for urban planning and environmental management.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China. Electronic address: cpeng@Live.com.
authors.forename: Chi
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Peng
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.
authors.forename: Meie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China. Electronic address: wpchen@rcees.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Weiping
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521, USA.
authors.forename: Andrew C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: Brook Byers Institute for Sustainable Systems, Hightower Chair and Georgia Research Alliance Eminent Scholar in Environmental Technologies, GA 30332, USA.
authors.forename: John C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Crittenden
mesh_terms: D000068476:Beijing; D002104:Cadmium / Q000032:analysis / Q000737:chemistry; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D004787:Environmental Pollution; D019216:Metals, Heavy / Q000032:analysis / Q000737:chemistry*; D008956:Models, Chemical; D012987:Soil; D012989:Soil Pollutants / Q000737:chemistry*; D014507:Urbanization; D015032:Zinc / Q000032:analysis / Q000737:chemistry
chemical_list: D019216:Metals, Heavy; D012987:Soil; D012989:Soil Pollutants; D002104:Cadmium; D015032:Zinc
keywords: Heavy metals; Mass balance model; Risk prediction; Soil pollution; Trading space for time; Urbanization