title: Associations between body fat variability and later onset of cardiovascular disease risk factors.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  There is current debate regarding whether body weight variability is associated with cardiovascular events. Recently, high body fat percentage (BF%) has been shown to be a cardiovascular risk factor. We therefore hypothesized that BF% variability would present a stronger cardiovascular risk than body weight variability.
  
  
  METHODS
  A single-center retrospective cohort study of medical check-up examinees aged 20 years or older at baseline (2005) was performed. Examinees were followed in 2007, 2009, and 2013-2014. BF% variability in 2005, 2007 and 2009 was calculated as the root-mean square error (RMSE) using a simple linear regression model. Multiple logistic regression models estimated the association between BF%-RMSE and new diagnoses of cardiovascular risk factors occurring between the 2009 and 2013-2014 visits.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In total, 11,281 participants (mean age: 51.3 years old, 48.8% were male) were included in this study. The average BF%-RMSE of our subjects was 0.63, and the average BMI-RMSE was 0.24. The high BF%-RMSE group (76-100th percentile) had a higher incidence of hypertension and a lower incidence of diabetes mellitus than the low BF%-RMSE group (1-25th percentile). This tendency was particularly evident in male participants. BMI-RMSE was not associated with any cardiovascular risks in our study.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study indicates that body fat variability has contrasting effects on cardiovascular risk factors, while body weight variability has no significant effects.
authors.affiliation: Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, St. Luke's International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Yuki
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2686-9604
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Saito
authors.affiliation: Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, St. Luke's International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.|Center for Clinical Epidemiology, St. Luke's Life Science Institute, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Osamu
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Takahashi
authors.affiliation: Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, St. Luke's International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hiroko
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Arioka
authors.affiliation: Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, St. Luke's International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.|Center for Clinical Epidemiology, St. Luke's Life Science Institute, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Daiki
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kobayashi
mesh_terms: D000273:Adipose Tissue / Q000378:metabolism*; D050154:Adiposity; D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000502:physiology*; D001835:Body Weight; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000473:pathology*; D050171:Dyslipidemias / Q000473:pathology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000473:pathology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors