title: Predictive Validity of ICD-11 PTSD as Measured by the Impact of Event Scale-Revised: A 15-Year Prospective Study of Political Prisoners.
abstract: The 11thedition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11; World Health Organization, 2017) proposes a model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) that includes 6 symptoms. This study assessed the ability of a classification-independent measure of posttraumatic stress symptoms, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (Weiss & Marmar, 1996), to capture the ICD-11 model of PTSD. The current study also provided the first assessment of the predictive validity of ICD-11 PTSD. Former East German political prisoners were assessed in 1994 (N = 144) and in 2008-2009 (N = 88) on numerous psychological variables using self-report measures. Of the participants, 48.2% and 36.8% met probable diagnosis for ICD-11 PTSD at the first and second assessments, respectively. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the factorial validity of the 3-factor ICD-11 model of PTSD, as represented by items selected from the Impact of Event Scale-Revised. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis demonstrated that, controlling for sex, the symptom clusters of ICD-11 PTSD (reexperiencing, avoidance, and sense of threat) significantly contributed to the explanation of depression (R2= .17), quality of life (R2= .21), internalized anger (R2= .10), externalized anger (R2= .12), hatred of perpetrators (R2= .15), dysfunctional disclosure (R2= .27), and social acknowledgment as a victim (R2= .12) across the 15-year study period. Current findings add support for the factorial and predictive validity of ICD-11 PTSD within a unique cohort of political prisoners.
authors.affiliation: School of Business, National College of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.|Centre for Global Health, School of Psychology, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Hyland
authors.affiliation: Clinical, Educational, and Health Psychology, University College London, London, England.
authors.forename: Chris R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Brewin
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Division of Psychopathology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Maercker
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003863:Depression / Q000523:psychology; D005260:Female; D005859:Germany, East; D006801:Humans; D038801:International Classification of Diseases; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology*; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011788:Quality of Life; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D057566:Self Report; D013313:Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology*; D055815:Young Adult