title: Climate change both facilitates and inhibits invasive plant ranges in New England.
abstract: Forecasting ecological responses to climate change, invasion, and their interaction must rely on understanding underlying mechanisms. However, such forecasts require extrapolation into new locations and environments. We linked demography and environment using experimental biogeography to forecast invasive and native species' potential ranges under present and future climate in New England, United States to overcome issues of extrapolation in novel environments. We studied two potentially nonequilibrium invasive plants' distributions,Alliaria petiolata(garlic mustard) andBerberis thunbergii(Japanese barberry), each paired with their native ecological analogs to better understand demographic drivers of invasions. Our models predict that climate change will considerably reduce establishment of a currently prolific invader (A. petiolata) throughout New England driven by poor demographic performance in warmer climates. In contrast, invasion ofB. thunbergiiwill be facilitated because of higher growth and germination in warmer climates, with higher likelihood to establish farther north and in closed canopy habitats in the south. Invasion success is in high fecundity for both invasive species and demographic compensation forApetiolatarelative to native analogs. ForA. petiolata, simulations suggest that eradication efforts would require unrealistic efficiency; hence, management should focus on inhibiting spread into colder, currently unoccupied areas, understanding source-sink dynamics, and understanding community dynamics shouldA. petiolata(which is allelopathic) decline. Our results-based on considerable differences with correlative occurrence models typically used for such biogeographic forecasts-suggest the urgency of incorporating mechanism into range forecasting and invasion management to understand how climate change may alter current invasion patterns.
authors.affiliation: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511; cory.merow@gmail.com.|Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269.
authors.forename: Cory
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Merow
authors.affiliation: Linda Loring Nature Foundation, Nantucket, MA 02554.
authors.forename: Sarah Treanor
authors.initials: ST
authors.lastname: Bois
authors.affiliation: Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824.
authors.forename: Jenica M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Allen
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14261.
authors.forename: Yingying
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7759-6178
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xie
authors.affiliation: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269.
authors.forename: John A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Silander
mesh_terms: D028142:Berberis / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D019607:Brassicaceae / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change; D003710:Demography; D017753:Ecosystem; D058865:Introduced Species; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009511:New England
keywords: Japanese barberry; demography; garlic mustard; integral projection model; species distribution model