title: Usefulness of the Glasgow-Blatchford score to predict 1-week mortality in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Esophageal variceal bleeding is one of the most severe complications of liver cirrhosis, with high mortality. However, there is no established scoring system for short-term mortality in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and the Child-Pugh score for predicting short-term and hospital mortality in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 47 patients with esophageal variceal bleeding were studied between September 2009 and March 2015. The GBS, the MELD score, and the Child-Pugh score were assessed for their ability to predict 1- and 6-week mortality rates using a receiver operating characteristic curve.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 1- and 6-week mortality rates were 17.0 and 31.9%, respectively. The median GBS, MELD, and Child-Pugh scores were 13 (range: 4-19), 10 (range: 0-34), and 9 (range: 5-13), respectively. The GBS was superior to both the MELD and the Child-Pugh scores for prediction of 1-week mortality [area under the curve=0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.98) vs. 0.71 (0.47-0.96) and 0.72 (0.53-0.91)]. The MELD score was superior to both the Child-Pugh score and the GBS for prediction of 6-week mortality [area under the curve=0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.97) vs. 0.69 (0.52-0.85) and 0.67 (0.50-0.83)].
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For 1-week mortality, the GBS was superior to the Child-Pugh and the MELD scores in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding. However, for 6-week mortality, the MELD score was superior in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding.
authors.affiliation: aDepartment of Internal Medicine, Hirosaki Municipal Hospital bDepartment of Gastroenterology, Hirosaki University Graduate School of Medicine, Hirosaki, Japan.
authors.forename: Chikara
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Iino
authors.forename: Tadashi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Shimoyama
authors.forename: Takasato
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Igarashi
authors.forename: Tomoyuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Aihara
authors.forename: Kentaro
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ishii
authors.forename: Jyuichi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sakamoto
authors.forename: Hiroshi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tono
authors.forename: Shinsaku
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fukuda
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000150:complications* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D006525:Hepatitis, Viral, Human / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012720:Severity of Illness Index