title: A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.
abstract: The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem.
authors.affiliation: Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, Victoria 3084, Australia.
authors.forename: Steve J
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-4282-1021
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Sinclair
authors.affiliation: Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, Victoria 3084, Australia.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Bruce
authors.affiliation: EcoInformatics Pty Ltd, 20 Alexander Street, Montmorency, Victoria 3094, Australia.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Griffioen
authors.affiliation: Hume City Council, 1079 Pascoe Vale Road, Broadmeadows, Victoria 3047, Australia.
authors.forename: Amanda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dodd
authors.affiliation: Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, Victoria 3084, Australia.
authors.forename: Matthew D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: White
mesh_terms: D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D005052:Eucalyptus; D065928:Forests; D006801:Humans; D006109:Poaceae
keywords: CLUS; Eucalyptus camaldulensi; Eucalyptus camaldulensis; bosque yerboso de eucalipto; expert elicitation; expert system; grassy eucalypt woodland; regression tree; resultados de expertos; sistema de expertos; árbol de regresión