title: Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease in Malaysia up to the Year 2040.
abstract: Background. The incidence of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis has been growing rapidly in Malaysia from 18 per million population (pmp) in 1993 to 231 pmp in 2013.Objective. To forecast the incidence and prevalence of ESRD patients who will require dialysis treatment in Malaysia until 2040.Methodology. Univariate forecasting models using the number of new and current dialysis patients, by the Malaysian Dialysis and Transplant Registry from 1993 to 2013 were used. Four forecasting models were evaluated, and the model with the smallest error was selected for the prediction.Result. ARIMA (0, 2, 1) modeling with the lowest error was selected to predict both the incidence (RMSE = 135.50, MAPE = 2.85, and MAE = 87.71) and the prevalence (RMSE = 158.79, MAPE = 1.29, and MAE = 117.21) of dialysis patients. The estimated incidences of new dialysis patients in 2020 and 2040 are 10,208 and 19,418 cases, respectively, while the estimated prevalence is 51,269 and 106,249 cases.Conclusion. The growth of ESRD patients on dialysis in Malaysia can be expected to continue at an alarming rate. Effective steps to address and curb further increase in new patients requiring dialysis are urgently needed, in order to mitigate the expected financial and health catastrophes associated with the projected increase of such patients.
authors.affiliation: National Clinical Research Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Mohamad Adam
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-6231-4062
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Bujang
authors.affiliation: National Clinical Research Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Tassha Hilda
authors.initials: TH
authors.lastname: Adnan
authors.affiliation: National Clinical Research Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Nadiah Hanis
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Hashim
authors.affiliation: National Clinical Research Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Kirubashni
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mohan
authors.affiliation: Clinical Research Centre, Serdang Hospital, Kajang, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Ang
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kim Liong
authors.affiliation: Department of Nephrology, Kuala Lumpur Hospital, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Ghazali
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Ahmad
authors.affiliation: Clinical Research Centre, Serdang Hospital, Kajang, Malaysia; Department of Nephrology, Serdang Hospital, Kajang, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Goh
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bak Leong
authors.affiliation: Department of Nephrology, Kuala Lumpur Hospital, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Sunita
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bavanandan
authors.affiliation: Malaysian Health Performance Unit, Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
authors.forename: Jamaiyah
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Haniff