title: The SORG nomogram accurately predicts 3- and 12-months survival for operable spine metastatic disease: External validation.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Externally validate the SORG12 nomogram and SORG classic algorithm at estimating survival in patients with spine metastatic disease, and compare predictive accuracy with other survival algorithms.
  
  
  METHODS
  We received data from 100 patients who had surgery for spine metastatic disease at an external institution. Algorithms were accurate if the Area Under Curve (AUC) was >0.70, and we used Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to compare predictive accuracy with other algorithms.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The SORG nomogram accurately estimated 3-months (AUC = 0.74) and 12-months survival (AUC = 0.78); it did not accurately estimate 1-month survival (AUC = 0.65). There was no difference in 1-month survival accuracy between the SORG nomogram and SORG classic algorithm (P = 0.162). The SORG nomogram was best at predicting 3-months survival, compared with the Tokuhashi score and SORG classic algorithm (P = 0.009). The SORG nomogram was best at predicting 12-months survival, compared with the Tomita score, Ghori score, Bauer modified score, Tokuhashi score, and SORG classic algorithm (P = 0.033).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The SORG nomogram accurately estimated 3- and 12-months survival for operable spine metastatic disease, and is therefore, useful in clinical practice.
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Orthopaedic Oncology Service, Massachusetts General Hospital-Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
authors.forename: Nuno Rui
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3813-2212
authors.initials: NR
authors.lastname: Paulino Pereira
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurosurgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.
authors.forename: Lily
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Mclaughlin
authors.affiliation: Department of General Surgery, Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Stein J
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3939-7765
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Janssen
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Academic Medical Center-University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Cornelis N
authors.initials: CN
authors.lastname: van Dijk
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Academic Medical Center-University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jos A M
authors.initials: JAM
authors.lastname: Bramer
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurosurgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.
authors.forename: Ilya
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Laufer
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurosurgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.
authors.forename: Mark H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Bilsky
authors.affiliation: Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Orthopaedic Oncology Service, Massachusetts General Hospital-Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
authors.forename: Joseph H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Schwab
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D019540:Area Under Curve; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013125:Spinal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality* / Q000556:secondary*; D015996:Survival Rate; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: algorithms; metastases; nomograms; spine; surgery