title: A Bayesian network approach to determine environmental factors controlling Karenia selliformis occurrences and blooms in the Gulf of Gabès, Tunisia.
abstract: A Bayesian Network modeling framework is introduced to explore the effect of physical and meteorological factors on the dinoflagellate red tide forming Karenia selliformis in various sampling sites of the national phytoplankton monitoring program. The proposed models took into account the physical environment effects (salinity, temperature and tide amplitude), meteorological constraints (evaporation, air temperature, insolation, rainfall, atmospheric pressure and humidity), sampling months and sites on both Karenia selliformis occurrences and blooms. The models produced plausible results and enabled the identification of the factors that directly impacted on the species occurrences and concentration levels. The sampling sites dominated the species occurrences. The models show that the relationship between salinity and Karenia selliformis is more apparent when the species concentrations are focused on and that the bloom occurrences can be predicted based on salinity. Concentrations up to 105cells L-1were recorded when salinity exceeded 42.5 and dominated the shallow and weak water renewal areas.
authors.affiliation: Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer, Centre de Sfax, Rue Madagascar, BP 1035, CP 3018, Sfax, Tunisia. Electronic address: wafafeki@yahoo.fr.
authors.forename: Wafa
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Feki-Sahnoun
authors.affiliation: Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer, Centre de Sfax, Rue Madagascar, BP 1035, CP 3018, Sfax, Tunisia. Electronic address: asma.hamza@instm.rnrt.tn.
authors.forename: Asma
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hamza
authors.affiliation: Faculté des Sciences Économiques et de Gestion de Sfax, Route de l'Aéroport Km 4, BP 1088, CP 3018, Sfax, Tunisia; Laboratoire de Multimedia, InfoRmation Systems and Advanced Computing Laboratory, Pôle technologique de Sfax, Route de Tunis Km 10, BP 242, CP 3021, Sfax, Tunisia. Electronic address: njah.hasna@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Hasna
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Njah
authors.affiliation: Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer (INSTM), 28 rue 2 mars 1934, Salammbô 2025, Tunis, Tunisia. Electronic address: barraj.nouha@instm.rnrt.tn.
authors.forename: Nouha
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Barraj
authors.affiliation: Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer, Centre de Sfax, Rue Madagascar, BP 1035, CP 3018, Sfax, Tunisia. Electronic address: mabroukamahfoudi@yahoo.fr.
authors.forename: Mabrouka
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mahfoudi
authors.affiliation: Centre de Biotechnologie de Sfax, Route Sidi Mansour Km 6, BP 1177, CP 3018, Sfax, Tunisia. Electronic address: ahmed.rebai@cbs.rnrt.tn.
authors.forename: Ahmed
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rebai
authors.affiliation: Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer (INSTM), 28 rue 2 mars 1934, Salammbô 2025, Tunis, Tunisia. Electronic address: belhassen.malika@instm.rnrt.tn.
authors.forename: Malika Bel
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Hassen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004141:Dinoflagellida / Q000378:metabolism; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D057097:Harmful Algal Bloom; D054712:Salinity; D014416:Tunisia
keywords: Bayesian network; Blooms; Karenia selliformis; Occurrences; Salinity; The Gulf of Gabès