title: Development of a scoring system using a statistical model to predict cure status in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The present study was performed to develop a scoring system for predicting cure status in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL).
  
  
  METHODS
  This study included 199 patients with CL from Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center (Isfahan, Iran). Data were collected as longitudinal in each visit of patients. We applied ordinal logistic generalized estimating equation regression to predict score on this correlated data. To evaluate the fitted model, split sample validation method was applied. SPSS software was used for data analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The regression coefficients of the fitted model were used to calculate score for cure status. Based on split-sample validation method, overall correct classification rate was 82%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study suggested a scoring system predict cure status in CL patients based on clinical characteristics. Using this method, score for a CL patient is easily obtained by physicians or health workers.
authors.affiliation: Skin and Stem Cell Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran; Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
authors.forename: Mehri
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Khoshhali
authors.affiliation: Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center, Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
authors.forename: Sayed Mohsen
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Hosseini
authors.affiliation: Skin and Stem Cell Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
authors.forename: Mohammad Ali
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Nilforoushzadeh
authors.affiliation: Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
authors.forename: Fariba
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Jaffary
authors.affiliation: Skin Diseases and Leishmaniasis Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran.
authors.forename: Azadeh Zolfaghari
authors.initials: AZ
authors.lastname: Baghbaderani
keywords: Cutaneous leishmaniasis; generalized estimating equation; longitudinal data; scoring system