title: The consistency of a species' response to press perturbations with high food web uncertainty.
abstract: Predicting species responses to perturbations is a fundamental challenge in ecology. Decision makers must often identify management perturbations that are the most likely to deliver a desirable management outcome despite incomplete information on the pattern and strength of food web links. Motivated by a current fishery decline in inland lakes of the Midwestern United States, we evaluate consistency of the responses of a target species (walleye [Sander vitreus]) to press perturbations. We represented food web uncertainty with 193 plausible topological models and applied four perturbations to each one. Frequently the direction of the focal predator response to the same perturbation is not consistent across food web topologies. Simultaneous application of management perturbations led to less consistent outcomes compared to the best single perturbation. However, direct manipulation of the adult focal predator produced a desirable outcome in 77% of 193 plausible topologies. Identifying perturbations that produce consistent outcomes in the face of food web uncertainty can have important implications for natural resource conservation and management efforts.
authors.affiliation: Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 680 North Park Street, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA.
authors.forename: Tyler D
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Tunney
authors.affiliation: Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 680 North Park Street, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA.
authors.forename: Stephen R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Carpenter
authors.affiliation: Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 680 North Park Street, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA.
authors.forename: M Jake
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Vander Zanden
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004463:Ecology; D005398:Fisheries / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D020387:Food Chain; D010471:Perches / Q000502:physiology; D035501:Uncertainty
keywords: conservation; ecosystems; indeterminacy; model uncertainty; resource management; species dynamics