title: Ecological Niche Model for Predicting Distribution of Disease-Vector Mosquitoes in Yucatán State, México.
abstract: The majority of the Yucatán State, México, presents subtropical climate that is suitable for many species of mosquitoes that are known to be vectors of diseases, including those from the genera Aedes and Culex. The objective of this study is to identify the geographic distribution of five species from these two genera and estimate the human population at risk of coming in contact with them. We compiled distributional data for Aedes aegypti (L.), Aedes (Howardina) cozumelensis (Diaz Najera), Culex coronator Dyar and Knab, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, and Culex thriambus Dyar from several entomological studies in Yucatán between March 2010 and September 2014. Based on these data, we constructed ecological niche models to predict the spatial distribution of each species using the MaxEnt algorithm. Our models identified areas with suitable environments for Ae. aegypti in most of Yucatán. A similar percentage of urban (97.1%) and rural (96.5%) populations were contained in areas of highest suitability for Ae. aegypti, and no spatial pattern was found (Moran's I = 0.33, P = 0.38); however, we found an association of abundance of immature forms of this species with annual mean temperature (r = 0.19, P ≤ 0.001) and annual precipitation (r = 0.21, P ≤ 0.001). Aedes cozumelensis is also distributed in most areas of the Yucatán State; Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. coronator, and Cx. thriambus are restricted to the northwest. The information generated in this study can inform decision-making to address control measures in priority areas with presence of these vectors.
authors.affiliation: Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Calle 43 No. 613 x Calle 90 Colonia Inalámbrica, Mérida, Yucatán, México CP 97069.
authors.forename: Carlos M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Baak-Baak
authors.affiliation: Centro Regional de Investigación en Salud Pública, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Calle 19 Poniente esquina 4ta Norte, Tapachula, Chiapas, México, CP 30700.
authors.forename: David A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Moo-Llanes
authors.affiliation: Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Calle 43 No. 613 x Calle 90 Colonia Inalámbrica, Mérida, Yucatán, México CP 97069.
authors.forename: Nohemi
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Cigarroa-Toledo
authors.affiliation: Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Calle 43 No. 613 x Calle 90 Colonia Inalámbrica, Mérida, Yucatán, México CP 97069.
authors.forename: Fernando I
authors.initials: FI
authors.lastname: Puerto
authors.affiliation: Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Calle 43 No. 613 x Calle 90 Colonia Inalámbrica, Mérida, Yucatán, México CP 97069.
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Machain-Williams
authors.affiliation: Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Calle 43 No. 613 x Calle 90 Colonia Inalámbrica, Mérida, Yucatán, México CP 97069.
authors.forename: Guadalupe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Reyes-Solis
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd., NE Mailstop G-06, Atlanta, GA 30333.
authors.forename: Yoshinori J
authors.initials: YJ
authors.lastname: Nakazawa
authors.affiliation: Centro Regional de Investigación en Salud Pública, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Calle 19 Poniente esquina 4ta Norte, Tapachula, Chiapas, México, CP 30700.
authors.forename: Armando
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ulloa-Garcia
authors.affiliation: Centro de Investigaciones Regionales Dr. Hideyo Noguchi, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán Laboratorio de Arbovirología, Calle 43 No. 613 x Calle 90 Colonia Inalámbrica, Mérida, Yucatán, México CP 97069.
authors.forename: Julian E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Garcia-Rejon
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D003465:Culex / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D007814:Larva / Q000502:physiology; D008800:Mexico; D008954:Models, Biological; D000072138:Mosquito Vectors / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: Aedes aegypti; Yucatán State; ecological niche model; spatial distribution