title: Pathways for balancing CO2emissions and sinks.
abstract: In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Brian
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-1689-2309
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Walsh
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de L'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91190 Saint-Aubin, France.
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ciais
authors.affiliation: University of Antwerp, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium.
authors.forename: Ivan A
authors.initials: IA
authors.lastname: Janssens
authors.affiliation: CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Cerdanyola del Valles 08193, (Catalonia), Spain.|CREAF, Cerdanyola del Valles 08193 (Catalonia), Spain.
authors.forename: Josep
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Peñuelas
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Keywan
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Riahi
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Felicjan
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rydzak
authors.affiliation: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2594 AV The Hague, The Netherlands.|Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Detlef P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: van Vuuren
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Obersteiner