title: European cardiovascular mortality over the last three decades: evaluation of time trends, forecasts for 2016.
abstract: The circulatory diseases, in particular ischemic heart diseases and stroke, represent the main causes of death worldwide both in high income and in middle and low income countries. Our aim is to provide a comprehensive report to depict the circulatory disease mortality in Europe over the last 30 years and to address the sources of heterogeneity among different countries.
  
  
  
  Our study was performed using the WHO statistical information system - mortality database - and was restricted to the 28 countries belonging to the European Union (EU-28). We evaluated gender and age time series of all circulatory disease mortality, ischemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, pulmonary and other circulatory diseases and than we performed forecast for 2016. Mortality heterogeneity was evaluated by countries using the Cochrane Q statistic and the I-squared index.
  
  
  
  Between 1985 and 2011 SDR for deaths attributable to all circulatory system diseases decreased from 440.9 to 212.0 x 100,000 in EU-28 and a clear uniform reduction was observed. Heterogeneity among countries was found to be consistent, therefore different analysis were carried out considering geographical area.
  
  
  
  We forecast a reduction in European cardiovascular mortality. Heterogeneity among countries could only in part be explained by both geographical and health expenditure factors.
authors.affiliation: Department Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gaeta
authors.affiliation: Department Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Campanella
authors.affiliation: Department Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Gentile
authors.affiliation: Department Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: G M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Schifino
authors.affiliation: Department Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Capasso
authors.affiliation: Heart Failure Unit, IRCCS Policlinico San Donato, San Donato Milanese (MI), Italy.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Bandera
authors.affiliation: IRCCS Istituto Ortopedico Galeazzi, Milan, Italy - Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Banfi
authors.affiliation: Department Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Arpesella
authors.affiliation: Department Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Italy - Centre of Excellence for Nutrition (CEN), North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ricci
mesh_terms: D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000401:mortality*; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Cardiovascular mortality; Europe; Mortality forecast