title: Dynamics of host populations affected by the emerging fungal pathogenBatrachochytrium salamandrivorans.
abstract: Emerging infectious diseases cause extirpation of wildlife populations. We use an epidemiological model to explore the effects of a recently emerged disease caused by the salamander-killing chytrid fungusBatrachochytrium salamandrivorans(Bsal) on host populations, and to evaluate which mitigation measures are most likely to succeed. As individuals do not recover fromBsal, we used a model with the states susceptible, latent and infectious, and parametrized the model using data on host and pathogen taken from the literature and expert opinion. The model suggested that disease outbreaks can occur at very low host densities (one female per hectare). This density is far lower than host densities in the wild. Therefore, all naturally occurring populations are at risk.Bsalcan lead to the local extirpation of the host population within a few months. Disease outbreaks are likely to fade out quickly. A spatial variant of the model showed that the pathogen could potentially spread rapidly. As disease mitigation during outbreaks is unlikely to be successful, control efforts should focus on preventing disease emergence and transmission between populations. Thus, this emerging wildlife disease is best controlled through prevention rather than subsequent actions.
authors.affiliation: Institut für Evolutionsbiologie und Umweltwissenschaften, Universität Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland; karch, Passage Maximilien-de-Meuron 6, 2000 Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Benedikt R
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-4023-1001
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Schmidt
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Analysis GmbH , Oetlisbergstrasse 38, 8053 Zürich , Switzerland.
authors.forename: Claudio
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bozzuto
authors.affiliation: Institut für Biogeographie , Universität Trier , Universitätsring 15, 54296 Trier , Germany.
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lötters
authors.affiliation: Department of Evolutionary Biology , Technische Universität Braunschweig, Zoological Institute , Mendelssohnstrasse 4, 38106 Braunschweig , Germany.
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Steinfartz
keywords: Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans; amphibian; emerging disease; epidemiological model; mitigation; wildlife pathogen