title: Examining trends in type 2 diabetes incidence, prevalence and mortality in the UK between 2004 and 2014.
abstract: Contemporary data describing type 2 diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality are limited. We aimed to (1) estimate annual incidence and prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes in the UK between 2004 and 2014, (2) examine relationships between observed rates with age, gender, socio-economic status and geographic region, and (3) assess how temporal changes in incidence and all-cause mortality rates influence changes in prevalence.
  
  
  
  Type 2 diabetes patients aged ≥16 years between January 2004 and December 2014 were identified using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Up to 5 individuals without diabetes were matched to diabetes patients based on age, gender and the general practice. Annual incidence, prevalence and mortality rates were calculated per 10 000 person-years at risk (95% CI). Survival models compared mortality rates in patients with and without type 2 diabetes.
  
  
  
  Prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes increased from 3.21% (3.19; 3.22) in 2004 to 5.26% (5.24; 5.29) in 2014. Incidence rates remained stable, overall, throughout the study period. Higher incidence and prevalence rates were related to male gender and deprivation. Individuals with type 2 diabetes were associated with higher risk of mortality (Hazard ratio 1.26 [1.20; 1.32]). Mortality rates declined in patients with and without diabetes throughout the study period. The incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in patients aged 16 to 34 years increased over time.
  
  
  
  The rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the UK over the last decade is probably explained by patients living longer rather than by increasing incidence of type 2 diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, Division of Pharmacy and Optometry, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre (MAHSC), Manchester, UK.|Department of Pharmaceutics, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libya.
authors.forename: Salwa S
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-7978-1094
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Zghebi
authors.affiliation: Centre for Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, Division of Pharmacy and Optometry, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre (MAHSC), Manchester, UK.
authors.forename: Douglas T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Steinke
authors.affiliation: Division of Psychology and Mental Health, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Carr
authors.affiliation: Division of Diabetes, Endocrinology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.|Manchester Diabetes Centre, Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre (MAHSC), Manchester, UK.
authors.forename: Martin K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Rutter
authors.affiliation: Centre for Biostatistics, Division of Population Health, Health Services Research & Primary Care, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre (MAHSC), Manchester, UK.
authors.forename: Richard A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Emsley
authors.affiliation: Centre for Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety, Division of Pharmacy and Optometry, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester Academic Health Sciences Centre (MAHSC), Manchester, UK.
authors.forename: Darren M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Ashcroft
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016208:Databases, Factual; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D015995:Prevalence; D011320:Primary Health Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D016019:Survival Analysis; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: CPRD; database research, incidence; prevalence; primary care; type 2 diabetes