title: The impacts of climate change on the abundance and distribution of the Spotted Wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii) in the United States and Canada.
abstract: D. suzukiiis a relatively recent and destructive pest species to the North American soft-skinned fruit industry. Understanding this species' potential to shift in abundance and range due to changing climate is an important part of an effective mitigation and management strategy. We parameterized a temperature-drivenD. suzukiipopulation dynamics model using temperature data derived from several Global Circulation Models (CMIP5) with a range of relative concentration pathway (RCP) predictions. Mean consensus between the models suggest that without adaptation to both higher prolonged temperatures and higher short-term temperature eventsD. suzukiipopulation levels are likely to drop in currently higher-risk regions. The potential drop in population is evident both as time progresses and as the severity of the RCP scenario increases. Some regions, particularly in northern latitudes, may experience increased populations due to milder winter and more developmentally-ideal summer conditions, but many of these regions are not currently known for soft-skinned fruit production and so the effects of this population increase may not have a significant impact.
authors.affiliation: School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada; Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Laurentian University, Sudbury, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: Aaron B
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Langille
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Laurentian University , Sudbury , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Ellen M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Arteca
authors.affiliation: Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph , Guelph , Ontario , Canada.
authors.forename: Jonathan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Newman
keywords: CMIP5; Drosophila suzukii; Elevated temperatures; Global circulation model; Invasive species; Soft-skinned fruit industry