title: Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.
abstract: Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission ofBrucella melitensiswithin early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation ofBrucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs ofBrucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.
authors.affiliation: Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health group, Department of Production and Population Health , Royal Veterinary College, University of London , Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield AL9 7TA , UK.
authors.forename: Guillaume
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-6998-1201
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Fournié
authors.affiliation: Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health group, Department of Production and Population Health, Royal Veterinary College, University of London, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield AL9 7TA, UK; School of Veterinary Medicine, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong.
authors.forename: Dirk U
authors.initials: DU
authors.lastname: Pfeiffer
authors.affiliation: Department of Archaeology, University of Reading, Whiteknights Box 226, Reading RG6 6AB, UK; School of History, Classics and Archaeology, University of Edinburgh, William Robertson Wing, Old Medical School, Teviot Place, Edinburgh EH8 9AG, UK.
authors.forename: Robin
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Bendrey
keywords: animal domestication; archaeology; emerging disease; epidemiology; mathematical modelling; one health