title: Tool for decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To propose a simple and effective tool for decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood.
  
  
  METHODS
  Virtual testing of a tool in a real event.
  
  
  METHODS
  A four-component tool was applied to build an alternative scenario of the catastrophic river flood in Obrenovac, Serbia, on May 2014. The components of this tool are: (1) the amount of precipitation above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; (2) upstream river discharge above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; (3) upstream river level above the 95th percentile of all previous measurements; and (4) worsening of the hydrometeorological situation in the following 48 h.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the early morning of 16 May 2014, a rapid river wave flooded 80% of the Obrenovac territory. There were 13 deaths due to drowning. Application of the study tool shows that these lives could have been saved, as the score to recommend general evacuation was reached 1 day before the flooding. The application of this tool to two previous great floods in Serbia shows that the score to recommend general evacuation was reached either 1 day before or on the onset of flash flooding.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Due to its simplicity, this tool is universally applicable to facilitate decision-making regarding general evacuation during a rapid river flood, and it should be further tested in future similar catastrophes.
authors.affiliation: Military Academy, University of Defence, Belgrade, Serbia.
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Radosavljevic
authors.affiliation: Institute of Hygiene and Medical Ecology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia. Electronic address: gogibel@eunet.rs.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Belojevic
authors.affiliation: Public Health Centre Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Pavlovic
mesh_terms: D003657:Decision Making; D004189:Disaster Planning / Q000379:methods*; D055868:Floods; D006801:Humans; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D045483:Rivers; D055771:Serbia
keywords: Decision-making; Public health; River floods