title: [Comparative evaluation of survival prognosis using MELD or Child-Pugh scores in patients with liver cirrhosis in Chile].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Currently, most liver units use the Child-Pugh (CP) or the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores to establish survival prognosis among patients with liver cirrhosis. Which classification is superior, is not well defined.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To compare CP and MELD classification scores to predict survival among adult patients with liver cirrhosis in Chile.
  
  
  METHODS
  Follow-up of 137 consecutive adult patients with liver cirrhosis aged 59 ± 12 years (55% women). The diagnosis was reached by clinical, laboratory and image studies at three different centers of Santiago. Patients were staged with CP and MELD classification scores at baseline and followed over a period of 12 months. The predictive capacity of the scores for survival was analyzed using a multivariate statistical analysis (Kaplan-Meier curves).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The most common etiology was alcohol (37.9%). The actuarial survival rate was 79.6% at 12 months of follow-up. When comparing groups with areas under curve of receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), there was no statistically significant difference in survival between less severe and advanced disease, assessed with both survival scales. The AUROC for MELD and CP were 0.80 and 0.81, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This clinical study did not find a statistically significant difference between the two classifications for the prediction of 12 months survival in patients with cirrhosis.
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Gastroenterología, Departamento de Medicina Interna, Clínica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago, Chile, esanhueza@alemana.cl.
authors.forename: Edgar
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Sanhueza
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Gastroenterología, Departamento de Medicina Interna, Clínica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago, Chile, esanhueza@alemana.cl.
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Contreras
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Gastroenterología, Departamento de Medicina Interna, Clínica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago, Chile, esanhueza@alemana.cl.
authors.forename: Rodrigo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Zapata
authors.affiliation: Sección de Gastroenterología, Departamento de Medicina Oriente, Hospital del Salvador, Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: Matías
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sanhueza
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Medicina Interna, Hospital Padre Hurtado, Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: Fabián
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Elgueta
authors.affiliation: Sección de Gastroenterología, Departamento de Medicina Oriente, Hospital del Salvador, Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: Constanza
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: López
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Gastroenterología, Departamento de Medicina Interna, Clínica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago, Chile, esanhueza@alemana.cl.
authors.forename: Sigrid
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Jerez
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Gastroenterología, Departamento de Medicina Interna, Clínica Alemana de Santiago, Santiago, Chile, esanhueza@alemana.cl.
authors.forename: Verónica
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Jerez
authors.affiliation: Facultad de Medicina, Universidad del Desarrollo, Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: Iris
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Delgado
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002677:Chile / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D016019:Survival Analysis; D015996:Survival Rate; D055815:Young Adult