title: Anti-Müllerian hormone does not predict time to pregnancy: results of a prospective cohort study.
abstract: In order to study whether ovarian reserve tests (ORTs) can predict time to ongoing pregnancy, we conducted a prospective cohort study in a cohort of healthy pregnancy planners. A total of 102 pregnancy planners were followed for 1 year, or until ongoing pregnancy occurred, after cessation of contraceptives). A baseline measurement of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and antral follicle count (AFC) was conducted. At the end of follow-up, a semen analysis was performed and chlamydia antibody titres were assessed. A univariate prediction model demonstrated age and the AFC to be significantly capable of predicting time to pregnancy (hazard ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.98, p = 0.01; 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07, p = 0.02 respectively). In the multivariate model, however, correcting for female age, we found no predictive effect of AMH, basal FSH or the AFC for time to ongoing pregnancy (hazard ratios 1.43, 95% CI 0.84-2.46, p = 0.36; 0.96, 95% CI 0.86-1.06, p = 0.43; 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.07, p = 0.08, respectively). This was confirmed by the low C-statistic. We therefore concluded that baseline AMH, AFC or FSH levels do not predict time to ongoing pregnancy in a cohort of healthy pregnancy planners. These results limit the usability of these ORTs in the assessment of current fertility.
authors.affiliation: a Department of Reproductive Medicine and Gynecology , University Medical Center Utrecht , Utrecht , the Netherlands.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Depmann
authors.affiliation: a Department of Reproductive Medicine and Gynecology , University Medical Center Utrecht , Utrecht , the Netherlands.
authors.forename: S L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Broer
authors.affiliation: b Department of Biostatistics and Research Support , Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care , Utrecht , the Netherlands , and.
authors.forename: M J C
authors.initials: MJC
authors.lastname: Eijkemans
authors.affiliation: a Department of Reproductive Medicine and Gynecology , University Medical Center Utrecht , Utrecht , the Netherlands.
authors.forename: I A J
authors.initials: IAJ
authors.lastname: van Rooij
authors.affiliation: a Department of Reproductive Medicine and Gynecology , University Medical Center Utrecht , Utrecht , the Netherlands.
authors.forename: G J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Scheffer
authors.affiliation: a Department of Reproductive Medicine and Gynecology , University Medical Center Utrecht , Utrecht , the Netherlands.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Heimensem
authors.affiliation: c The Robinson Research Institute, School of Paediatrics and Reproductive Health, University of Adelaide and The South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute , Australia.
authors.forename: B W
authors.initials: BW
authors.lastname: Mol
authors.affiliation: a Department of Reproductive Medicine and Gynecology , University Medical Center Utrecht , Utrecht , the Netherlands.
authors.forename: F J M
authors.initials: FJM
authors.lastname: Broekmans
mesh_terms: D000046:Academic Medical Centers; D000328:Adult; D054304:Anti-Mullerian Hormone / Q000097:blood*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D005640:Follicle Stimulating Hormone / Q000097:blood; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007124:Immunoenzyme Techniques; D008297:Male; D009426:Netherlands; D065851:Ovarian Reserve; D010053:Ovary / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging; D011247:Pregnancy; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D061685:Time-to-Pregnancy; D014463:Ultrasonography
chemical_list: D054304:Anti-Mullerian Hormone; D005640:Follicle Stimulating Hormone
keywords: AMH; conception; fecundability; prediction; pregnancy