title: The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.
abstract: Temperature is a key environmental driver ofAnophelesmosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology , Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park , PA, USA.
authors.forename: Lindsay M
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7247-0309
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Beck-Johnson
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology , Queen's University , Kingston, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: William A
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Nelson
authors.affiliation: ISGlobal, Barcelona Ctr. Int. Health Res. (CRESIB), Hospital Clinic , Universitat de Barcelona , Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Krijn P
authors.initials: KP
authors.lastname: Paaijmans
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Department of Entomology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Andrew F
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-7604-7903
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Read
authors.affiliation: Department of Entomology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics , The Pennsylvania State University, University Park , PA, USA.
authors.forename: Matthew B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Department of Entomology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Ottar N
authors.initials: ON
authors.lastname: Bjørnstad
keywords: age structure; delay-differential equations; malaria risk; mosquito population dynamics; seasonality; temperature fluctuation