title: Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.
abstract: Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway.
authors.forename: Sébastien
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-0590-9013
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Descamps
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway.
authors.forename: Tycho
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Anker-Nilssen
authors.affiliation: Department of Natural Sciences, Tromsø University Museum, Tromsø, Norway.
authors.forename: Robert T
authors.initials: RT
authors.lastname: Barrett
authors.affiliation: Migratory Bird Management, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, AK, USA.
authors.forename: David B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Irons
authors.affiliation: Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland.|Department Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
authors.forename: Flemming
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Merkel
authors.affiliation: Environment Canada, Mount Pearl, NL, Canada.
authors.forename: Gregory J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Robertson
authors.affiliation: Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway.
authors.forename: Nigel G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Yoccoz
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Acadia University, Wolfville, NS, Canada.
authors.forename: Mark L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Mallory
authors.affiliation: Departments of Psychology and Biology and Ocean Sciences Centre, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada.
authors.forename: William A
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Montevecchi
authors.affiliation: Department Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Boertmann
authors.affiliation: Kamchatka Branch of the Pacific Geographical Institute, Far-Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Petropavlosk-Kamchatsky, Russia.
authors.forename: Yuri
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Artukhin
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway.|Department of Biology, Norwegian Institute of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
authors.forename: Signe
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Christensen-Dalsgaard
authors.affiliation: Fram Centre, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Tromsø, Norway.|Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway.
authors.forename: Kjell-Einar
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Erikstad
authors.affiliation: National Wildlife Research Center, Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: H Grant
authors.initials: HG
authors.lastname: Gilchrist
authors.affiliation: Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland.
authors.forename: Aili L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Labansen
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway.
authors.forename: Svein-Håkon
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Lorentsen
authors.affiliation: Department Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
authors.forename: Anders
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mosbech
authors.affiliation: Faroe Marine Research Institute, Tórshavn, Faroe Islands.
authors.forename: Bergur
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Olsen
authors.affiliation: Reykjavik, Iceland.
authors.forename: Aevar
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Petersen
authors.affiliation: Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada, Québec,, QC, Canada.
authors.forename: Jean-Francois
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Rail
authors.affiliation: Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Homer, AK, USA.
authors.forename: Heather M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Renner
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway.
authors.forename: Hallvard
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Strøm
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway.
authors.forename: Geir H
authors.initials: GH
authors.lastname: Systad
authors.affiliation: Environment Canada, Mount Pearl, NL, Canada.
authors.forename: Sabina I
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Wilhelm
authors.affiliation: Institute for Biological Problems of the North, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan, Russia.
authors.forename: Larisa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zelenskaya
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D020387:Food Chain; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D011157:Population Dynamics
keywords: black-legged kittiwake; climate change; nonlinear response; ocean warming rate; population decline; sea-surface temperature; seabird