title: Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Model Improved With Relative Humidity and Precipitation-Driven Egg Hatching.
abstract: We propose an improved Aedes aegypti (L.) abundance model that takes into account the effect of relative humidity (RH) on adult survival, as well as rainfall-triggered egg hatching. The model uses temperature-dependent development rates described in the literature as well as documented estimates for mosquito survival in environments with high RH, and for egg desiccation. We show that combining the two additional components leads to better agreement with surveillance trap data and with dengue incidence reports in various municipalities of Puerto Rico than incorporating either alone or neither. Capitalizing on the positive association between disease incidence and vector abundance, this improved model is therefore useful to estimate incidence of Ae. aegypti-borne diseases in locations where the vector is abundant year-round.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Arizona, 617 N. Santa Rita Ave., Tucson, AZ 85721.
authors.forename: Joceline
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lega
authors.affiliation: Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave., Tucson, AZ 85724.
authors.forename: Heidi E
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Entomology and Ecology Activity, Dengue Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1324 Calle Cañada, San Juan, Puerto Rico 00920.
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Barrera
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D003715:Dengue / Q000635:transmission; D005260:Female; D006813:Humidity; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D009032:Mosquito Control / Q000379:methods*; D011156:Population Density; D011647:Puerto Rico; D011891:Rain
keywords: arboviral transmission; invasive species; modeling; mosquito control; mosquito-borne disease