Time-lagged genomic erosion and future environmental risks in a bird on the brink of extinction
Global biodiversity is rapidly declining due to habitat degradation and genomic erosion, highlighting the urgent need to monitor endangered species and their genetic health. Temporal genomics and ecological modelling offer finer resolution than single-time-point measurements, providing a comprehensive view of species' recent and future trajectories. We investigated genomic erosion and environmental suitability in the critically endangered regent honeyeater (Anthochaera phrygia) by sequencing whole genomes of historical and modern specimens and building multi-temporal species distribution models (SDMs) across the last century. The species has declined from several thousand individuals to fewer than 300 over the previous 100 years. SDMs correctly predicted known patterns of local extinction in southeast Australia. Our demographic reconstructions revealed a gradual population decline starting 2,000 to 2,500 years ago, sharply accelerating in the last 500 years due to climate variability and habitat loss. Despite this substantial demographic collapse, the regent honeyeater has lost only 9% of its genetic diversity, with no evidence of inbreeding or connectivity loss. Also, it exhibits higher diversity than many other threatened bird species. Forward-in-time genomic simulations indicate that this time-lag between population decline and genetic diversity loss conceals the risk of ongoing genomic erosion into a future of rapidly degrading environmental suitability. Our work underscores the need for targeted conservation efforts and continuous genetic monitoring to prevent species extinction.