Tumor mutational load is prognostic for progression to therapy among high-count monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (HCMBL)
HCMBL is a precursor condition to chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). We have shown that among individuals with HCMBL the CLL-International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) is prognostic for time-to-first therapy (TTFT). Little is known about the prognostic impact of somatically mutated genes among individuals with HCMBL. We sequenced DNA from 371 HCMBL individuals using a targeted sequencing panel of 59 recurrently mutated genes in CLL to identify high-impact mutations. We compared the sequencing results to that of our treatment-naive CLL cohort(N=855) and employed Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations with TTFT. Compared to CLL, the frequencies of any mutated genes were lower in HCMBL (70% versus 52%). At 10-years, 37% of HCMBL individuals with any mutated gene had progressed requiring treatment compared to 10% among HCMBL individuals with no mutations; this led to 5.4-fold shorter TTFT (95%CI:2.6-11.0) among HCMBL with any mutated gene versus none, independent of CLL-IPI. When considering individuals with low-risk of progression according to CLL-IPI, HCMBL individuals with any mutations had 4.3-fold shorter TTFT (95%CI:1.6-11.8) versus those with none. Finally, when considering both CLL-IPI and any mutated gene status, we observed HCMBL individuals who were high-risk for both prognostic factors with worse prognosis compared to low-risk CLL patients (i.e., 5-year progression rate of 32% versus 21%, respectively). Among HCMBL, the frequency of somatically mutated genes at diagnosis is lower than that of CLL. Accounting for both the number of mutated genes and CLL-IPI can identify HCMBL individuals with more aggressive clinical course.